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For the uninitiated, PVI stands for Partisan Voting Index, and it measures the difference between the presidential margin in each congressional district and the presidential margin nationwide, averaged over the previous two presidential elections.  Previously, we had only PVI's based on the 2004 and 2008 elections.  Now, thanks to JeffMD's great work on this site, we have presidential margins for some districts for the 2012 elections, and can begin to make out updated PVI's using 2008 and 2012 elections data.  These are preliminary because we do not know exactly what the national vote will be, but they should be very close.  

Trends were as you would expect.  Upturns in diverse, urban areas and downturns in pasty white Conservadem areas.  And looking great in general in CA and VA.


This almost got to R+11.  Palin spike in 2008 probably makes this artificially high.

AK-AL (Young) - R+13 to R+12


What a disaster here, but Obama didn't do any worse relative to the national vote in 2012 than 2008.  Still think we can win an open AR-02 with a good candidate.

AR-01 (Crawford) - R+7 to R+14
AR-02 (Griffin) - R+5 to R+8
AR-03 (Womack) - R+16 to R+19
AR-04 (Cotton) - R+9 to R+15


Looking good here.  SoCal suburbs trending Dem big-time.  A little surprised uber-blue Bay Area seats are trending a little red, but hopefully we'll see that some of those Democratic voters are moving out to the suburbs where they'll be more useful.

CA-12 (Pelosi) - D+35 to D+33
CA-13 (Lee) - D+37 to D+36
CA-36 (Ruiz) - R+3 to R+1
CA-41 (Takano) - D+3 to D+9
CA-42 (Calvert) - R+12 to R+9
CA-45 (Campbell) - R+8 to R+7
CA-46 (Lo. Sanchez) - D+3 to D+8
CA-48 (Rohrabacher) - R+8 to R+7


Courtney loses a point, Esty gains one.  I'll take it, as Courtney took his D+5 district by roughly 40% while Esty had a competitive open seat race.

CT-01 (Larson) - Stays at D+12
CT-02 (Courtney) - D+6 to D+5
CT-03 (DeLauro) - D+9 to D+11
CT-04 (Himes) - Stays at D+5
CT-05 (Esty) - D+2 to D+3


Obama slipped here in 2012.  Don't really understand why when Obama did so well in MD and other states with strong AA populations in 2012.

DE-AL (Carney) - D+7 to D+8


We gained steam in the Orlando and Miami areas, but lost it in Palm Beach.  I'm confident Palm Beach will stick with its Dem Reps (read, it's an Obama thing), although Patrick Murphy has a tough task in FL-18, which moved to R+3.

FL-01 (Miller) - Stays at R+21
FL-04 (Crenshaw) - R+17 to R+16
FL-05 (Brown) - D+16 to D+18
FL-06 (DeSantis) - R+6 to R+9
FL-07 (Mica) - R+5 to R+4
FL-08 (Posey) - R+8 to R+9
FL-09 (Grayson) - D+4 to D+9
FL-10 (Webster) - R+7 to R+6
FL-11 (Nugent) - R+8 to R+11
FL-12 (Bilirakis) - Stays at R+6
FL-13 (Young) - Stays at R+1
FL-14 (Castor) - D+11 to D+13
FL-15 (Ross) - R+8 to R+6
FL-16 (Buchanan) - R+5 to R+6
FL-17 (Rooney) - Stays at R+10
FL-18 (Murphy) - R+1 to R+3
FL-19 (Radel) - R+11 to R+12
FL-20 (Hastings) - D+28 to D+29
FL-21 (Deutch) - D+12 to D+10
FL-22 (Frankel) - D+5 to D+3
FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz) - D+11 to D+9
FL-24 (Wilson) - D+33 to D+34
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) - R+9 to R+5
FL-26 (Garcia) - R+4 to R+1
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) - R+6 to R+2


Will be interesting to see where Woodall's seat is at the end of the decade.  It moved three points in our direction this time around, but it has a long way to go.

GA-01 (Kingston) - Stays at R+9
GA-02 (Bishop) - D+4 to D+6
GA-03 (Westmoreland) - Stays at R+19
GA-04 (Johnson) - D+17 to D+21
GA-05 (Lewis) - Stays at D+31
GA-06 (Price) - R-12 to R+13
GA-07 (Woodall) - R+16 to R+13
GA-08 (Scott) - Stays at R+15
GA-09 (Collins) - R+27 to R+30
GA-10 (Broun) - R+14 to R+15
GA-11 (Gingrey) - Stays at R+19
GA-12 (Barrow) - Stays at R+9
GA-13 (Scott) - D+9 to D+16
GA-14 (Graves) - R+24 to R+25


Old PVI's may be more indicative of how Democratic these seats are given Obama home state bandwagon effect.

HI-01 (Hanabusa) - D+11 to D+18
HI-02 (Gabbard) - D+14 to D+21


Not much to see here.  Maybe ID-02 will be blue in 200 years.

ID-01 (Labrador) - Stays at R+18
ID-02 (Simpson) - R+17 to R+16


Will be interesting to see what the red seats did.  Blue seats got bluer.

IN-01 (Visclosky) - D+9 to D+10
IN-07 (Carson) - D+9 to D+13


The game has changed overall and not in a good way, but 2012 was better than 2008.

LA-01 (Scalise) - R+23 to R+25
LA-02 (Richmond) - D+22 to D+23
LA-03 (Boustany) - R+15 to R+19
LA-04 (Fleming) - R+11 to R+12
LA-05 (Alexander) - R+14 to R+15
LA-06 (Cassidy) - R+19 to R+20


Northern Minnesota trending against us.  Hope Peterson and Nolan stick around a while although, like Palm Beach, FL, I think it's an Obama thing.

MN-01 (Walz) - Stays at R+1
MN-02 (Kline) - Stays at R+2
MN-03 (Paulsen) - Stays at R+2
MN-04 (McCollum) - Stays at D+11
MN-05 (Ellison) - Stays at D+22
MN-06 (Bachmann) - R+8 to R+9
MN-07 (Peterson) - R+5 to R+6
MN-08 (Nolan) - D+3 to D+1


Shea-Porter just barely rounded to R+1.  Not really much change here.

NH-01 (Shea-Porter) - R+0 to R+1
NH-02 (Kuster) - Stays at D+3


Obama slipped here in 2012 compared to 2008.

ND-AL (Cramer) - Stays at R+10


Ugly trend, except the Oklahoma City district, which is trending our way.

OK-01 (Bridenstine) - R+16 to R+18
OK-02 (Mullin) - R+14 to R+19
OK-03 (Lucas) - R+24 to R+26
OK-04 (Cole) - R+18 to R+19
OK-05 (Lankford) - R+13 to R+12


Cicilline needs all the blueness he can get.

RI-01 (Cicilline) - D+14 to D+15
RI-02 (Langevin) - Stays at D+8


SC-05 and SC-07 intrigue me as future targets.

SC-01 (Scott) - Stays at R+11
SC-02 (Wilson) - R+14 to R+13
SC-03 (Duncan) - R+16 to R+17
SC-04 (Gowdey) - Stays at R+15
SC-05 (Mulvaney) - R+9 to R+8
SC-06 (Clyburn) - D+17 to D+18
SC-07 (Rice) - Stays at R+7


Like ND, Obama slipped here in 2012 compared to 2008.

SD-AL (Noem) - Stays at R+9


Trend is phenomenal here.  Everything is moving towards us except Western Virginia.

VA-01 (Wittman) - R+8 to R+6
VA-02 (Rigell) - R+5 to R+2
VA-03 (Scott) - D+23 to D+26
VA-04 (Forbes) - R+6 to R+3
VA-05 (Hurt) - R+6 to R+5
VA-06 (Goodlatte) - R+12 to R+11
VA-07 (Cantor) - R+11 to R+9
VA-08 (Moran) - D+15 to D+16
VA-09 (Griffith) - R+11 to R+14
VA-10 (Wolf) - R+4 to R+2
VA-11 (Connolly) - D+7 to D+10


2012 made the 32-point loss here in 2008 look good.

WY-AL (Lummis) - R+20 to R+21

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