Dave Wasserman is doing a big service to what I call the unstated contest to psychologically capture America's hearts and minds. Conflating this year's election theme was one thing; the tussle between reality and pragmatism versus nostalgic mythology and imaginism. America has real problems that must be addressed and solved by men and women who are willing to address them as problems not an ideology or belief. Back to Wasserman:Link to Google Doc Follow Wasserman on Twitter here.
As of right now the count is:
21 states have certified results---meaning 29 still counting.
The latest
Obama-65,147,939 (50.91%)
Romney-60,610,074 (47.36%)
Other-2,209,061 (1.73%)
Total cast 127,943,336 (-2.55%) down 3.370M as of now
Estimated between 1M to 1.5M or so left to count.
Over the last week Romney has dropped +- 0.16% while Obama has gained +- 0.12%. Last week many were wondering if/when Romney would fall below 47.49% which now seems to be a long time ago and a big amount ago. Those who watch this stuff like me are wondering if/when Obama will go over 51%, possibly reaching a spread of 3.75% (up from a tad just over 3% on election night). To reach 51% Obama will have win about 62.6% of the remaining 1M (?) votes, if 1.5M (?) votes, 58.72% would be needed to push over the 51% threshold.
When running these numbers over the exit polls one item popped up. Voting by partisan registration the consortium reported that Dem's voted at 92% rate, while Republicans voted at 93%, with unaffiliated or independents voted in a split going to Romney 45-to-50% . These numbers now don't reconcile if 38% are Democratic, 32% Republican and 29% independent. But they do compute if Democrats voted at 93% same as Republicans and Independent's voted at a split 47% to 50%.
These real results would also coincide with two campaign narratives; One, the race was all about getting your base out, and two, building your base---right in Obama and the Dem's wheel house!
The other meme was that the Republicans continue to decay in registration where more or recent independent's are actually closet or former Republicans, either they are Tea Party renegades or former GOP loyalists or moderates being pushed out by Tea Partiers. (For those Democratic operatives one could begin to mine data in Vote Builder ID'ing recent change in voter registration in party affiliation and if one cross references this with previous regular voting in primaries you could begin to ID renegade or closet Republicans.)
This is subtle but important to grass roots activists which reinforces the point that progressives and liberals must seek to continue registering partisan registrations. Lastly, it simply impaled the idea that there was some sort of enthusiasm gap, this dispels any notion of that Romney pollster (wish/hope/myth) meme.
The other item showing to the surface is the number of battleground and non battleground states that Romney did not reach 47%, in 8/12 swing states; CO, IA, MI, MN, NH, PA, NV, & WI, seeing VA, (47.28%) OH, (47.68%), FL, (49.13%) actually show closer returns and of course then leaving NC (50.39%) as Romney's lone victory. If any of you lived in a battleground state you would know the amount political messages and political ground games that were employed. People decided and the spread was 6.6% (52.44/45.84). THIS WAS NOT A CLOSE ELECTION, REPEAT THIS WAS NOT A CLOSE ELECTION.
Back to the election issue. If you lived in a battleground state unlike what Fox tried to frame the election as a 'small' election it was a very big one with both camps totally exposed and bare. Romney expressed every ideological meme that the Republican tool chest and Obama not only fully challenged that meme but also presented their tool chest. It was a big election and now this first political battle is putting the winning and losing to test. The Dem's won the overall Congressional vote:
Dem's-58,268,527 (50.29%) Rep-57,593,519 spread 675,008 yet it is 234-201, the last line of defense in the old Republican realignment. Gerrymandering and other manipulations are alive and well at the state level.
Finally I think we are not going to see the grand compromise until after January 1, possibly closer to Jan 20th. I think this is a political trap being set by the President and Democrats to wound the House Republicans.