Most Ohio county boards of elections have reported final results from the November 6 general election, so it’s a good time to look at the impact provisional and absentee ballots not included in the preliminary results had in Ohio’s urban counties. The preliminary figures are still available on the Ohio Secretary of State’s web site.
The following tables include the preliminary totals, the additional votes not included in the preliminary totals, and the final totals for eight of Ohio’s ten most populous counties. Mahoning County (ranked tenth in population) is not included because its Board of Elections has not yet posted final results. Butler County (ranked eighth) is not included because it is a suburban, rather than urban, county. The Cincinnati suburbs (Butler, Warren, and Clermont Counties) form the largest bastion of Republican support in the state. Figures are Obama vote – Obama percent – Romney vote – Romney percent – Total vote.
OBAMA ROMNEY TOTAL
CUYAHOGA Prelim 420953 68.84 184475 30.17 611512
Cleveland Add 26279 80.19 6176 18.85 32769
_ Total 447232 69.42 190651 29.59 644281
FRANKLIN Prelim 325654 60.11 207941 38.38 541751
Columbus Add 20682 68.06 8026 26.41 30390
_ Total 346336 60.53 215967 37.75 572141
HAMILTON Prelim 208508 51.79 188653 46.86 402572
Cincinnati Add 11419 69.96 4673 28.63 16322
_ Total 219927 52.50 193326 46.15 418894
SUMMIT Prelim 147146 56.73 108700 41.91 259389
Akron Add 5891 65.72 2300 25.66 8964
_ Total 153037 57.03 111000 41.36 268353
MONTGOMERY Prelim 128983 50.73 121188 47.66 254266
Dayton Add 8156 65.56 3653 29.36 12441
_ Total 137139 51.42 124841 46.81 266707
LUCAS Prelim 129229 64.34 68100 33.91 200850
Toledo Add 7387 75.60 1840 18.83 9771
_ Total 136616 64.86 69940 33.21 210621
STARK Prelim 86314 48.87 86958 49.23 176623
Canton Add 3118 60.86 1623 31.68 5123
_ Total 89432 49.21 88581 48.74 181746
LORAIN Prelim 78115 56.39 58095 41.94 138516
Elyria Add 3349 67.47 1310 26.39 4964
_ Total 81464 56.78 59405 41.40 143480
The inclusion of the additional votes typically increased Obama’s margin by about one percent. It was enough to turn a close loss to a close win in Canton’s Stark County. Collectively, these counties provided 86,281 additional votes to Obama and 29,601 additional votes to Romney. I expect Obama’s statewide margin to increase from about 2% to over 3% when the Secretary of State publishes the updated totals.
Just for fun, I also looked at recent historical trends for these eight counties. Figures are Democratic vote – Democratic percent – Republican vote – Republican percent – Total vote.
YEAR DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN TOTAL
CUYAHOGA 2000 359913 62.62 192099 33.42 574782
Cleveland 2004 448503 66.57 221600 32.89 673777
_ 2008 458422 68.90 199880 30.04 665352
_ 2012 447232 69.42 190651 29.59 644281
FRANKLIN 2000 202018 48.79 197862 47.78 414074
Columbus 2004 285801 54.35 237253 45.12 525827
_ 2008 334709 59.73 218486 38.99 560325
_ 2012 346336 60.53 215967 37.75 572141
HAMILTON 2000 161578 42.76 204175 54.03 377899
Cincinnati 2004 199679 47.09 222616 52.50 424025
_ 2008 225213 52.98 195530 46.00 425086
_ 2012 219927 52.50 193326 46.15 418894
SUMMIT 2000 119759 53.26 96721 43.02 224839
Akron 2004 156587 56.67 118558 42.91 276320
_ 2008 160858 57.93 113284 40.80 277685
_ 2012 153037 57.03 111000 41.36 268353
MONTGOMERY 2000 114597 49.61 109792 47.53 230987
Dayton 2004 142997 50.60 138371 48.97 282584
_ 2008 145997 52.42 128679 46.20 278511
_ 2012 137139 51.42 124841 46.81 266707
LUCAS 2000 108344 57.83 73342 39.15 187350
Toledo 2004 132715 60.21 87160 39.54 220430
_ 2008 142852 64.98 73706 33.53 219831
_ 2012 136616 64.86 69940 33.21 210621
STARK 2000 75308 47.11 78153 48.89 159844
Canton 2004 95337 50.59 92215 48.93 188459
_ 2008 96990 51.72 86743 46.25 187545
_ 2012 89432 49.21 88581 48.74 181746
LORAIN 2000 59809 53.32 47957 42.75 112180
Elyria 2004 78970 56.11 61203 43.49 140742
_ 2008 85276 58.07 59068 40.22 146859
_ 2012 81464 56.78 59405 41.40 143480
Note the sharp increase in total vote between 2000 and 2004 in all eight counties. John Kerry’s campaign didn’t get the credit it deserved in maximizing urban turnout. Unfortunately, turnout was also way up in red-leaning parts of the state. For example, Butler County’s total vote increased by 22%, which is in line with the counties on this list.
Also note the encouraging trends in Franklin, Hamilton, and Lucas Counties. Franklin County is home to Columbus, the only large city in Ohio that is gaining population. Al Gore carried Franklin County by 1%, John Kerry by 9%, and Barack Obama by 21% and 23%. Republicans had held Cincinnati’s Hamilton County for many years until Obama carried it by 7% in 2008 and 6% in 2012, following losses by 11% (Gore) and 5% (Kerry). Blue-collar Lucas County has long been a Democratic stronghold, but Obama’s margins of 31% and 32% far exceed Gore’s 19% and Kerry’s 21%.