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Leading Off:

NY-St. Sen: Gaze upon the horror: Renegade Democrats in the New York state Senate have, at last, come to an appalling power-sharing agreement with the Republicans, handing control to the GOP even though they represent a minority in the chamber. Power will formally rotate back and forth between Republican Sen. Dean Skelos and "Independent" Democratic Sen. Jeff Klein, whose band of rogues just added a fifth member in the form of Sen. Malcolm Smith. Remarkably, Smith used to be the Senate majority leader until he was deposed after two now-extinct Dems were bought off by the GOP. Indeed, disgust at Smith's leadership was allegedly why Klein formed the IDC in the first place; the fact that they're letting him into the clubhouse now sure looks like proof that Klein is only interested in power.

In any event, Colin Campbell has Skelos's press release, which contains the precise details of this arrangement:

Under the unprecedented agreement, the Independent Democratic Conference will be formally recognized as a third, permanent Senate conference. Senator Klein and Senator Skelos will assume the roles of Conference Leader for their respective conferences and will administer joint and equal authority over (1) the daily senate agenda (a/k/a the "Active List," which lays out which bills will be voted on each day), (2) the state budget, (3) appointments to state and local boards, and (4) leadership and committee assignments for their respective conferences.

Under the agreement, coalition leaders will need to work together to lead the Senate forward. The new agreement will also provide for a process by which the title of Temporary President will alternate between the two conference leaders every two weeks. Therefore, the role of the temporary president will be constitutionally fulfilled at all times.

As a reminder, candidates with a "(D)" after their names won 33 seats this November, while Republicans only won 30. But the five members of the IDC, as well as a sixth conservative Democrat (Simcha Felder), have all elected to side with the GOP, even though I doubt that's what they were elected for. Once again, Felder aside, this isn't about ideology: Klein describes himself as a "progressive." Well, there's a ton of progressive legislation that mainstream Dems want to pass. Klein claims this is about ending dysfunction in Albany. Let's see if he bothers pushing for a floor vote on a single Democratic priority.

And let's not forget the blame supposedly Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo bears here, too. Cuomo not only endorsed Republican senators for re-election but he also refused to say which party he preferred to see control the Senate—even after Dems won a surprise majority on election day. And a report in Crain's even claims (according to an unnamed source) that Klein "has been running ideas past Mr. Cuomo before moving forward." I certainly believe it.

It's all further proof that Cuomo, despite occasional departures like gay marriage, is deeply anti-progressive and has little interest in being a Democrat. And if there's a silver lining, it's that abandoning your party (and progressive ideals) at a moment of extreme need like this ought to badly hurt Cuomo with presidential primary voters, should he make the mistake of seeking the brass ring.


GA-Sen: PPP has a broad variety of different numbers based on various what-if scenarios pertaining to a primary challenge of GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, but the bottom line is that he's vulnerable. He only sports a 45-36 approval rating among Republican primary voters, and by a 43-38 margin, the same people prefer "somebody more conservative"—aka Republican Jesus—as the party's 2014 Senate nominee.

Of course, the problem is always finding that savior, but would you believe that the person who most resembles Republican Jesus is... Herman Cain? Yep, it's true! The Hermanator has a gaudy 68-20 favorability score with Republicans and would beat Chambliss 50-36 in a direct head-to-head. Unfortunately, Cain recently said he wouldn't run, but hey, there's a sketchy report on Twitter saying PPP's numbers have him reconsidering, so yeah, awesome!

Incidentally, PPP also tested a whole variety of other figures in two-ways with Chambliss: Reps. Paul Broun, Tom Price, and Allen West, as well as former SoS Karen Handel and conservative blogger Erick Erickson, who, like Cain, has already said he wouldn't run. (West has also said he has no desire to move from Florida back to his native Georgia.) Chambliss crushes each of them with 50 percent or more except for West, whom he beats 47-26. In a never-gonna-happen kitchen sink primary, though, Cain still leads with 36, versus 23 for Chambliss, and pretty much bupkes for everyone else.

As for the general election, Chambliss does pretty well against a variety of hypothetical Democrats despite an overall 38-41 job approval score—but I should caution that all of these names are extremely hypothetical:

45-45 vs. ex-Sen. Max Cleland
48-40 vs. ex-Gov. Roy Barnes
50-37 vs. Rep. John Barrow
52-37 vs. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed
52-34 vs. state Sen. Jason Carter (grandson of Jimmy)

None of these candidates have expressed any interest, and indeed, Barrow (who just won a tough re-election fight) has specifically said he won't run. Cleland is 70 and turned down the opportunity to avenge his 2002 loss once before. Barnes was persuaded to come out of retirement to run for governor in 2010 but hey, it was 2010 and so he lost, something that probably doesn't make him eager for another bid. Reed or Carter could be interesting, but it seems doubtful that either would take the plunge.

But what if... what if Chambliss lost the primary? Tom Jensen tested Price, who seems like the toughest realistic insurgent, against this same suite of Dems as a possible stand-in for what a post-Saxby world might look like. Thanks to his lower name rec, Price indeed performs much worse:

39-47 vs. Cleland
40-46 vs. Barnes
40-38 vs. Barrow
43-38 vs. Reed
42-36 vs. Carter

The Democrats, though, don't perform much better (just looking at their raw shares, not the margin), so I think Price would still be the favorite, thanks to the state's Demographic lean. But a nasty GOP primary could badly damage the eventual victory, even Chambliss. And hell, if Herman Cain somehow won, I'd say anything would be possible in the general election. So note to Tom: Please test Hermano against some Dems next time! I'll even buy you a pizza!

P.S. Scratch one more name off the list: Newt Gingrich says he has "explicitly no interest" in running against Chambliss.

MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren's victory was about as big a get as liberals could hope for, but now here's the cherry on top: Harry Reid will reportedly name Warren to the Senate Banking Committee, an appointment that progressive organizations like Daily Kos had pushed for. Warren of course rose to prominence thanks to her tough stance on Wall Street corruption, so it's hard to imagine a more ideal perch for her to continue her advocacy on behalf of ordinary consumers.


IA-Gov: No kidding: Former Dem Gov. Chet Culver, who swept into office with an almost 10-point victory in 2006 then was promptly swept out in 2010 by a similar margin, is apparently considering a comeback bid. That's according to his former communications director, who says "I don't think it's any secret he's looking at it." Well, while it may not be a secret to everybody, it's at least news to me, since I had no idea Culver was thinking about a rematch against the guy who beat him four years ago, Republican Terry Branstad.

That's because Culver seemed to leave office deeply unpopular—a June PPP poll (PDF) from that year had him at a painful 28-56 job approval rating. I'd be curious to see if his numbers have rebounded since then, but I'm thinking we may want to go with another option for 2014.

OH-Gov: Not sure why this is surfacing only now: Dem Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13) was arrested in August for public intoxication in Lexington, Virginia, though the charges were dismissed on Tuesday (which is obviously how some enterprising someone found out about it). Ryan confirms the incident, but no further details are available. While not exactly the greatest thing you can add to your resume, this hardly seems like a disqualifier for a further run for office, and indeed, Ryan has said he's considering a bid for governor.

But Shira Toeplitz notes that in a story she wrote in early September—shortly after the arrest, but long before it was made public—sources told her that Ryan "started to notify Democrats a couple of weeks ago that he doesn't want to run statewide next cycle." So perhaps this factored into his thinking? Like I say, though, this is pretty small potatoes, unless there's more to it that we don't know.


AZ-09: Two also-rans in the GOP primary are saying they are interested in making another go at Rep.-elect Kyrsten Sinema in 2014: businessman Martin Sepulveda and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers. Rogers took 21 percent in the primary and Sepulveda 20, while the ultimate winner, Vernon Parker, only scored 22, so it's easy to understand why they both want to take another shot. But the district is going the wrong way for Republicans: Obama improved about half a point here from 2008, even though statewide he dropped almost two percent. With a full term under her belt and no primary of her own to worry about, Sinema (who defeated Parker by about four points) should be tougher to beat two years from now.

MO-08, MO-LG: The National Journal mentions a couple Republicans who could succeed soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, attorney John Tyrrell and Cape Girardeau Sheriff John Jordan, in addition to the big pile of bigger names that's already swirling about. So to get a field for the full state of play, you'll want to check out this piece in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which features quotes from a number of prominent figures, like Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and state party executive director Lloyd Smith, who both say on the record that they are interested in the job.

Amusingly, there's also one guy who says he isn't interested—on the Democratic side. That would be outgoing Rep. Russ Carnahan, who lost a redistricting-induced primary earlier this year. Carnahan's only virtue is a modicum of name recognition, since he'd be a lousy fit in what is a basically hopeless district anyhow. (Believe it or not, Rusty made his first bid for office in the 8th, all the way back in 1990. He got stomped by Emerson's late husband, Bill, 57-43.)

And one side-note: If Kinder were tapped as the GOP nominee by local Republican officials (there's no primary), and presumably went on to win, that would leave the LG spot open. In that scenario, it looks like Dem Gov. Jay Nixon would be able to appoint a replacement (though that's not 100% certain), which would give Democrats every single statewide office in Missouri.

House: Shira Toeplitz scans the horizon for potential 2012 House candidates who might be interested in trying again, based on a mixture of public statements, unnamed sources, and speculation. For Republicans, she suggests Martha McSally (AZ-02), Allen West (FL-18), Bob Dold (IL-10), Bobby Schilling (IL-17), Richard Tisei (MA-06), Frank Guinta (NH-01), and Mia Love (UT-04). On the Dem side, she points to Jose Hernandez (CA-10), Pete Aguilar (CA-31), Val Demings (FL-10), Christie Vilsack (IA-04), Brendan Mullen (IN-02), and Mark Critz (PA-12). Most of these folks lost by very small margins, so rematch attempts would (at least on paper) make a certain amount of sense for at lease some of them. Hernandez has specifically said he's looking at another bid, but he might wait until 2016, when presidential-year turnout will hopefully maximize the Democratic vote.

Grab Bag:

Census: Every ten years, tons of municipalities challenge the Census Bureau's population counts, always arguing that tons of people were missed. These claims are rarely very successful, but the city of Houston did just score a win, after a fashion. Saying that the bureau had used incorrect boundaries when it ran the numbers, Houston managed to get a grand total of 812 people added to its rolls. Why even mention something like this, in such a large city? Because those 812 citizens formally pushed Houston past the 2.1 million mark, which means that under local law, the city council can now be expanded to include more seats. Every vote—and every person—really does count!

DNC: While the Democratic Party won't formally pick its leadership until January, President Obama has asked Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to stay on as DNC chair—and DNC members pretty much always go along with the president's wishes.

DSCC: Senate Democrats have gotten their man: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet will serve as the chair of the DSCC for the very challenging 2014 cycle, while Guy Cecil will remain as executive director for another two years. Bennet's name was at the top of a short list of possible chiefs, but he won't have an enviable job: Democrats are defending 20 seats, many on very difficult turf, while Republicans only have to protect 13, which are all safe or close to it. But Bennet, who was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 after Ken Salazar resigned to become Interior Secretary, proved to be an adept fundraiser and squeaked out a narrow win against exceptionally difficult odds in 2010. Now, though, he doesn't have just one race to worry about—he's got 33.

FreedomWorks: Well whaddya know: Ex-Rep. Dick Armey, the public face of the Koch brothers' front group FreedomWorks, has resigned his post—and it sure doesn't sound amicable, seeing as he wants to the organization to stop using his name in any way. According to Politico, Armey apparently was unhappy with Matt Kibbe, FW's president, whom he alleges tried to pad his pockets by using the organization's resources to write a book, then claiming he'd written it all himself, a shenanigan Armey reportedly feared might jeopardize the group's tax-exempt status.

But don't feel too bad for ol' Dick: He's somehow getting an absurd $8 million payday out of all this—a remarkable sum for a group that spent all of $19 million on actual elections in 2012. And it's not just Armey who's leaving: Several other top staffers are bailing as well. It makes you wonder if a mostly grafty shop like FreedomWorks will even continue to exist in the future. Not that I think it would matter much either way: In 2010, they spent a paltry half a million, leading me to wonder why anyone ever pays attention to them in the first place. It's starting to look like fewer and fewer people will in the future.

Pennsylvania: Here we go again. Last year, you may recall that some Pennsylvania Republicans, led by state Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi, tried to push through a scheme that would award the Keystone State's electoral votes not on the basis of the popular vote (as has been done since time immemorial) but instead by congressional district. It was a naked power grab, seeing as the GOP had a free hand in drawing the state's new congressional map to its exact liking. That would have cut badly into the electoral votes Obama was sure to win, since he was always expected to carry Pennsylvania.

Now Pileggi is back with a new plan—with a twist. Instead of dividing up the state's EVs by CD, he wants to award them based on the statewide popular vote, with an extra two for the winner. As PoliticsPA's Keegan Gibson observes, that would have given Obama 12 electoral votes and Mitt Romney eight, as opposed to the 20 which all went into the president's pocket. This wouldn't have affected the national outcome, but in a tighter race, it's easy to see how it might. And seeing as Republicans haven't carried Pennsylvania since 1988, there's no question about which party this move would benefit. Hopefully, though, Pileggi's latest hijinks will go about as far as his last effort did: nowhere.

Pres-by-CD: We have fourteen more districts for you today, including all nine from the state of Arizona. Note that for CA, IL, and IN, we've already calculated a bunch of districts, so the seats listed in parentheses only refer to those which are new in this update:

Arizona (statewide)

California (CA-11, CA-15)

Illinois (IL-15)

Indiana (IN-04, IN-05)

Arizona gives us a nice insight into the different trends of minority-heavy districts vs. heavily white districts. Obama saw some improvement in the two Hispanic-majority districts (Grijalva's AZ-03 and Pastor's AZ-07), including a whopping seven-point bump in the central Phoenix-based 7th (from 65 percent Obama to 72 Obama now). The other three Democratic seats held about even, with AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ-09 (Sinema) swinging slightly towards us and AZ-02 (Barber) swinging slightly against.

We've also got results from California's Contra Costa County (alliteration!), which provides no surprises; both CA-11 (George Miller) and CA-15 (Eric Swalwell) remain strongly Democratic (as is characteristic of the Bay Area) at more than two-thirds Obama. On the flipside, we have two Indiana districts, both of which are solidly Republican (and represent a sizeable downturn from 2008 for the president). Also on that note is IL-15, where a combination of the ebbing of Obama's home state effect and the Republican trend in of downstate Illinois made for an 8.6 point swing away from the POTUS, the second largest swing we've calculated thus far (after UT-01). (jeffmd)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  so (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sidnora, DJ Rix, grrr, happymisanthropy

    I don't mean to start off all of your days with tragic news, but the Dem has conceded in the special election for one of the (Republican-held) Assembly seats in LD-16.

    before you cry too much, however, there is also good news! we will have a chance to get this back next year. the margin was narrow. we just need to find another (good) candidate to run...or two good candidates for that matter...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:10:57 AM PST

  •  When elections don't have consequences (15+ / 0-)

    I think David's point about the 6 renegade Dems in the NY state senate ("I doubt that's what they were elected for") really gets to something important. I think we all agree one one thing here: it matters who wins.

    But when elected officials defy the clear results of an election, the election doesn't have consequences. And we would be crazy not to wonder why we even bother with certain races.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:28:59 AM PST

    •  Any chance... (14+ / 0-)

      any of those renegade Dems can and will be primaried by a REAL Democrat in two years?

      And wow, Felder sounds like a real piece of work.  What a homophobe.

      •  That's exactly what needs to happen (14+ / 0-)

        These guys shouldn't be able to win a Democratic primary after caucusing with Republicans and blocking dozens of progressive bills.

        The NY Democratic Party should be out recruiting quality progressive candidates for these 5 seats right now.

        Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

        by bear83 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:55:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  We should be looking for candidates right now. (24+ / 0-)

        All of them should be primaried.

        Even though some of them claim they are acting in the interest of good government, one of them (Klein) just happened to secure the co-leadership of the Senate with this stunt. Smells like a power grab to me, not like "cleaning up the Albany mess". Another good clue is that Malcolm Smith, one of the ones most responsible for the last time our Senate got us national attention embarrassment, rushed to join the breakaway group as soon as the power-sharing arrangement was announced. This is nothing but opportunism, pure and simple.

        Felder is the only one that we probably shouldn't bother primarying; he was high-profile within that district long before the election, and unfortunately is exactly what his constituents want. He should just be tossed out of the party. And he is going to be a real problem in Albany.

        BTW, see Andrew C White's excellent diary on this topic.

        "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

        by sidnora on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:00:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Felder's district (5+ / 0-)

        It is an immensely Hasidic and Orthodox Jewish seat. It was held by a Republican (Storobin) before this election. It's not like we are going to get a liberal out of this district, so it doesn't matter what letter the winning candidate has behind his name, he will be socially conservative.

      •  It can be tough to dislodge incumbents. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, BruinKid

        Institutional forces tend to back them almost no matter what.

        For example here is the reaction of the chairman of the Staten Island Democratic Party.

        “Diane has been a fierce advocate for Staten Island and Brooklyn since she was elected as a State Senator,” Mr. Gulino said. “She has always fought with all her heart for the middle class, rights of the hardworking men and women of the labor movement, and democratic principles. I am confident she will continue that fight, irrespective of the dynamic Albany finds itself in January.”
        And TWA local 100.

        “In the aftermath of Super Storm Sandy, and the devastation suffered by the working families of New York, we must get down to the business of governing,” said the union’s president, John Samuelsen, in a statement late last night. ”The Independent Democratic Conference— led by serious, effective senators such as Jeff Klein, Diane Savino, and Malcolm Smith — has shown great commitment in fighting for public union employees and their families. It is obvious that at this point their decision to create a bipartisan coalition was the best possible option to ensure a functioning government for all New Yorkers and NYC Transit Workers and our families.”

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:40:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  People forget that NY has (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, BruinKid

        fusion balloting. The IDC members will certainly get the Independence Party Line. Klein will probably get the Republican line and take his fight all the way to the general election (even if he loses the Democratic primary). Meanwhile with a split vote David Carlucci's district will certainly give that seat to the Republicans.

        Let's all not forget that Terry Gipson and Cecilia Tkaczyk (if they both win the two unresolved races) will have very difficult re-elections. Republicans will control the Senate until we get fair lines. That won't happen for a while.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:04:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Cuomo toast in 2016? or just won't run for Pres? (7+ / 0-)

    Gov Cuomo had to understand that his failure to lift a hand, to do anything, to help the Dems take control of the NY state senate would result in significant blowback should he ever try to run for national office.  Maybe he, like his father, will never actually run for national office.  Perhaps instead he hopes to make his mark in his home state through multiple terms as Governor.  That may be the best course as his actions and inaction this week in NY may have effectively doomed any chance he had to win a competitive nomination for Pres as a Dem.  (But as an Independent ....?)

    •  nah, he'll run ~ on a platform of bipartisanship (11+ / 0-)

      His approval ratings are sky-high.  The state party is in disarray, but who cares?  Now it's all about the show.

      •  He'll run, but (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mannie, LordMike, tb mare, grrr, Aquarius40, am

        don't bet on success. When your own state party base is this pissed at you, you might just have a problem.

        "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

        by sidnora on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:01:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He didn't just (19+ / 0-)

      "fail to lift a hand" - he quietly aided and abetted this result, and he certainly did it with an eye to 2016.

      You see, if he doesn't have a Democratic-controlled Senate to work with, he has an excuse for all that progressive legislation he won't be signing. He thinks that will make him look appealingly bipartisan-y when he runs for president.

      IMO he's out-clevered himself. There are other, more attractive, and more reliably Democratic hopefuls out there, and he'll need to win some primaries before he gets the nomination he so clearly believes should be his by right. Democrats vote in those.

      "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

      by sidnora on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:48:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  you're right about this (6+ / 0-)
        "fail to lift a hand" - he quietly aided and abetted this result, and he certainly did it with an eye to 2016.
        hope you're right about this
        IMO he's out-clevered himself.

        "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

        by eXtina on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:30:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, I've always found him (0+ / 0-)

          distinctly unappealing; he seems thuggish to me, and very, very different from his father. There will be other candidates running, and his behavior in this reminds me somewhat of Hillary Clinton's run-up to 2008: get all the ducks lined up, raise a shitload of money, and by the time the actual campaign comes around, you can present yourself as inevitable.

          What Clinton didn't take into account, and Cuomo appears not to be, is that behaving like you're already on a national stage can alienate your actual, current constituents, whose views you have some obligation to represent. With Clinton, it was her vote for the Iraq war, over the vociferous street protests of hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers. With Cuomo, it's this. I don't intend to forget.

          "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

          by sidnora on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:07:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Reminds me of another son (12+ / 0-)

      who betrayed his father's ideals but was soundly defeated a few weeks ago.

      "There ain't no sanity clause." Chico Marx

      by DJ Rix on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:53:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  We will see what legislation gets passed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eXtina, DCCyclone

      In all honesty, will be known as the immensely popular governor who got same sex marriage legalized in new York in spite if a Republican senate? or will he be known as the governor who remained idle while the new York senate sorted out its own mess? What is going on with the senate in very much inside baseball, and it is hard to keep layman voters interested enough to explain the wonky nature of what is going on. "As governor, I made marriage a right for every citizen" makes more a much cleaner commercial sound bite.

      •  The day he signed off on gay marriage (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        eXtina, Mannie, OGGoldy

        a friend in New York praised him. I said it was a good thing, but the reason he'd done it was so people like her would think he's a great progressive champion when he's not. My friend is a high-income lawyer. Her politics on economic issues are OK, but she's more into social issues and doesn't have time to follow all the sketchy machinations in Albany. I predicted then most people in her demographic would remember him as the "pro-gay-marriage governor" in three years' time, not any of the bad things he's done.

        •  The game in gay marriage passage (0+ / 0-)

          in New York for 'centrist' Democratic and a set of Republican state Senatprs, and probably Cuomo, was openly to end it as a running issue and get back to the real business of Albany.  I.e. dealing themselves and their buddies taxpayer money.

      •  Klein has stated (0+ / 0-)

        he plans to get minimum wage, campaign finance reform, and stop-and-frisk reform passed. If that happens, Cuomo looks great. He will just point to his results when acted. The policy not politics approach will work in a primary. He won't get endorsements, but he will get votes.

        If they get those agenda items passed, it should give IDC members enough cover to win in their primaries.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:18:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Wow, I didn't read your comment before... (2+ / 0-)

        ...posting my comment below.

        But now I read yours and see that mine reads like a direct response.

        It wasn't!

        But I anticipated what some people might say in my own comment...and there you had said it!

        To repeat what I wrote, where Cuomo can be hurt by this is that voters in primaries are looking for bases to distinguish candidates who differ little on ideology and policy.  Yeah Cuomo pushed through same-sex marriage, but so did O'Malley, and everyone else likely will support same-sex marriage, so it's not much of a basis to distinguish.  So stuff like failing to support his own party control the state Senate they rightly won on election day is something to distinguish, in a bad way.

        And you think O'Malley and others won't use it against him?  Hell yes they will.  They'll make sure everyone in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina knows about it.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:37:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  The only thing that will keep him from running (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mannie, Jeremimi, am

      is if Hillary runs.

      Run Hillary run.

      Creating frustration for his inner circle, as Mr. Cuomo considers a 2016 campaign for the White House, the eyes of his party are fixed on Mrs. Clinton, whose already sky-high stature among Democratic activists was enhanced by her husband’s crowd-pleasing speech this month at the party’s convention in Charlotte, N.C., and who can count on broad support if she decides to run.

      Mrs. Clinton complicates Mr. Cuomo’s ambitions in several ways. Despite the fact that she hails from Illinois, she is now viewed as a New Yorker and commands deep loyalty from the state’s Democratic establishment. And Mr. Cuomo, 54, reveres her husband, former President Bill Clinton; he views Mr. Clinton as a mentor who helped him begin a career in politics, according to Cuomo friends and associates.

      The focus on Mrs. Clinton among Mr. Cuomo’s advisers was apparent during the Democratic convention. At one point, a key adviser to the governor approached the Rev. Al Sharpton to ask him if he would support Mrs. Clinton were she to run in 2016, according to a prominent New York Democrat with direct knowledge of the conversation.

      “They are totally trying to figure out what she would do,” said the Democrat, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid alienating Mr. Cuomo.

      Another Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said the situation was making the Cuomo camp cranky, in part because the governor, a skilled strategic thinker, did not like to be captive to others’ ambitions.

      "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

      by eXtina on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:29:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've said here before he has time on his side (0+ / 0-)

      If this happened in December 2014 instead of December 2012, Cuomo would be in trouble.

      But this controversy has plenty of time to pass without affecting him.

      That said, I can picture this mattering, and killing his chances.  In a primary, ideological and policy differences are few, and other stuff matters more.  So seemingly stabbing your own party and its loyal voters in the back is the sort of thing I can picture Iowa Democratic caucusgoers and NH primary voters caring about a couple years down the road.  You can't merely dismiss what's happening in the NY state Senate as "inside baseball" that voters ignore, when the voters are all of the same party and looking for bases to disqualify some choices to make it easier to pick a nominee.  Cuomo is handing them one basis to disqualify him, in a field where, for one example of how policy doesn't help him, probably everyone will support same-sex marriage (and at least one of his rivals, O'Malley, will have matched him in making it happen legislatively and outdone him in also getting direct voter ratification) so that one of his signature accomplishments won't stand out from the crowd.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 10:14:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sigh. (10+ / 0-)

    I really hate some Dems.

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:35:53 AM PST

  •  Unreal... (14+ / 0-)

    Every single on of these D's better be primary-ed in two years. Every single damn one of them! If they make it through the primary then vote Republican to get rid of them. If they are going to act like R's then you minds well elect an R and get rid of the bad D in the process. That is exactly what I would do if any of these assholes were in my district.  

  •  I almost thought it was just me, (12+ / 0-)

    but Andrew Cuomo's behavior is beginning to attract the attention of other people who are not influenced by his PAC's all-day-every-day PR campaign.  A PAC whose funds were increased by 2million dollars from an outside NY State Native American tribe who just coincidentally got Coumo's approval to set up a few casinos.

    The Adirondack Park agency also has suddenly decided to allow "improvements" to Tupper Lake that would enhance the ability of big business to move in and destroy the nearly pristine allure of the mountains.

    These are not the decisions that one would normally expect from a Democrat.

    The religious fanatics didn't buy the republican party because it was virtuous, they bought it because it was for sale

    by nupstateny on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:39:31 AM PST

  •  this is what happens (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mannie, bear83, TheUnknown285

    when the only choice voters have is gopers or dems that are right of center, true liberals are almost extinct in politics today and that is destroying the middle class and the 99% chance of a respectable future.

    •  That's not really what's happening here. (16+ / 0-)

      This is not an ideological battle. The breakaway Dems range from solidly progressive (Savino) to the DINO-est of DINOs (Felder) with all points in between represented. This is a power grab, with some actually claiming they are doing it for the good of the Senate.

      Our state party is a factionalized mess, with an unreliable leader (Cuomo), and that brings out the opportunists, no matter what stripe.

      "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

      by sidnora on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:12:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-11 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, Samer, DCCyclone, JBraden

    Politico has a nice piece about Rep. Dave Curson (D), who will only be in Congress for 7 weeks for winning the special election to fill out the remainder of Thad McCotter's term and will soon be the answer to trivia questions.

    BTW, there was also this tidbit.

    Another very brief tenure occurred in 2010, when Democrat Carte Goodwin replaced the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) for four months while then-Gov. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) prepared to run for the seat. Goodwin’s name is now being floated as a potential House candidate in 2014.
    Hmm... running for Capito's seat that she's giving up to run for Senate?
  •  I almost wish Paladino had won against Cuomo in NY (3+ / 0-)

    At least we would know where we stood with him. And it would have been far more entertaining.

  •  "D" stands for "COWARD" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Send conservatives to for re-education.

    by filthyLiberalDOTcom on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:50:54 AM PST

    •  "DIRTBAG" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      this is really nasty of these clowns

      here are the county election results for my guy, David "I'm independent" Carlucci ... note the "DEM" after his name ... means nothing, I guess - we really had a choice between two Republicans.

      An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

      by mightymouse on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:03:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is the WOR (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mightymouse, Mannie

        Working Families? Jeez, does the guy have no shame?

        •  Shame? what is this "shame" you speak of? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:


          yes I do believe WOR = working families .... in Rockland they are no great shakes ... just another skeezy little operation.

          People from elsewhere seem to have a better opinion of them.

          An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

          by mightymouse on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:32:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They were good in the city (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I imagine they might not have a huge operation in Rockland. They were founded to push NYS Dem candidates to the left. Thanks to fusion they rarely run a candidate not already on the Dem line, but I did believe they'd withhold their ballot line from a truly non-progressive Dem. Maybe not.

            My point was that it's appalling to take not only the Dem but the WFP nomination as well and then caucus with the GOP. WFP should vet better.

            “Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.” Harry S. Truman

            by fenway49 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:22:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe is should say WHORE, as in (0+ / 0-)

          political WHORE, willing to do and say anything  to keep that taxpayer funded paycheck coming.

          Send conservatives to for re-education.

          by filthyLiberalDOTcom on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 01:09:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  As Bill Maher put it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      in his spiel on Jay Leno, D is the letter grade you give a Party for almost irredeemable Disappointment.  You want to give an F but the other Party is so much worse that you give a D and admit it's the one to put your hope in, however feeble the hope and nauseating the track record.

  •  Please everyone, especially NY'ers (11+ / 0-)

    Remember this come 2015/2016 when that DOUCHEBAG Cuomo puts his name up there during the presidential primaries!

    I have said it in past comments, I will say it again

    When Kos talks about electing BETTER democrats, it is people like CUOMO who he was talking of getting rid of!

    CUOMO = Lieberman!

    Sadly, I actually like Lieberman better, but then again I live in NY and get to see first-hand the crap that is Cuomo!

    Never underestimate stupid. Stupid is how reTHUGlicans win!

    by Mannie on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 05:58:33 AM PST

  •  Republicans are consistant (7+ / 0-)

    Even in the official press release from the coalition, all the Republicans are calling it the Independent Democrat Conference when in the same press release the turncoats still have the "courtesy" to say Democratic...

  •  I'm observing from... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    out here in the Plains, but based on some stands Christie has taken regarding Muslim judges and such, Christie seems nearly as progressive as Cuomo...

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:08:50 AM PST

  •  Cuomo wants a GOP Senate... (8+ / 0-)

    Bacause it makes his centrist governing easier - he can blame the GOP Senate for any legislation he signs off on that Dems don't like and can point to whatever he does accomplish as "bi-partisan credentials" when he runs for higher office.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:22:00 AM PST

  •  I'm completely in favor of the IDC-Republican deal (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Keep in mind that IDC's terms included open votes on an increase in the minimum wage, public campaign financing and restrictions on stop-and-frisk policies.  Last I checked, those were "progressive"  policies.  Remember as well that it was under Republican control that the vote for marriage equality passed, something the Democratic-controlled Senate couldn't bring itself to do.

    I've been a life-long Democrat, but I'm not willfully ignorant of the broad incompetence and corruption that the Democratic Conference has exhibited in the past.  When the Democrats took power in 2008, they immediately caved to a power grab by the "four amigos", whose demands had nothing to do with progressive policies and everything to do with naked power.  We'd be far better off building a new Democratic leadership out of the IDC members, and the power-sharing agreement may help promote that.

  •  I will NEVER vote for Andy Cuomo (13+ / 0-)

    for anything. I lived many a year in New York and have plenty of family and friends there still. I liked his father well enough but, since taking office, Andrew Cuomo's been at least as bad as Chris Christie next door ever was.

    My aunt works for a non-profit agency largely funded by the state. She works with autistic kids who sometimes hit, bite, throw things at her. After 20 years of this work she was making less than $20/hr, and that's only for the hours in session, not the huge number of hours planning and writing state-required reports. Cuomo came in, slashed state payments to the agency, and instituted delay in the funding process. Now my aunt took a 10% pay cut and has to wait three months to get paid.

    A friend in NYC, a social worker, has had a similar experience. Almost everyone in NYS whose job involves helping those who most need help has had this kind of treatment. Wall Street's profits are back to where they were before Wall Street wrecked the global economy. Andy Cuomo is NOT a progressive in any sense of the word.

  •  Yes, let's NOT! (4+ / 0-)
    And let's not forget the blame supposedly Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo bears here, too. Cuomo not only endorsed Republican senators for re-election but he also refused to say which party he preferred to see control the Senate—even after Dems won a surprise majority on election day. And a report in Crain's even claims (according to an unnamed source) that Klein "has been running ideas past Mr. Cuomo before moving forward." I certainly believe it.
    Democrats did not 'hand' over power to the GOP, the GOP stole it! And Cuomo has a hand in it by staying out of the fight and keeping 'his' party in power. Anybody thinking of him for 2016 President please remember this along with his 'help' in redistricting. Cuomo is not a Democrat. Slate did a great article oh him calling him a fake Democrat and the only thing that would keep him from running is if HIllary runs.
    Please Hillary run!

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:25:13 AM PST

  •  Cuomo, bipartisan kumbaya, (0+ / 0-)

    LIEberman lite. UGH

  •  It's not all about party (0+ / 0-)

    Sometimes it's about practicality.

    This is the dark side of partisan politics -- the need for someone to be seen as supporting THE PARTY if he wants to be elected for anything.  Quid pro quo.  Mutual back-scratching, whatever.

    The New York State budget is in horrible condition.  We needed someone willing to twist arms and keep spending down while promoting business growth.  To get that, you either need a fiscally conservative Democrat, or a Republican.  Guess which one I'd rather have.

    Powers  &8^]

  •  Pileggi is my State Senator (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    I've known he's scum for a while now.

  •  On Iowa (0+ / 0-)

    A recent poll puts Gov. Terry Branstad up 51% to 40% over former Gov. Chet Culver.

    One correction in MO....if Kinder were replaced with Democrat that would leave the Missouri GOP still one statewide officer....Auditor Tom Schweich who won that office in 2010 beating Democratic incumbent Susan Montee.

  •  Ha ha (0+ / 0-)

    we NEVER have problems like that in NJ.

  •  Working Families Line? (0+ / 0-)

    Did these scumbags run on the Working Families Party line as well?  If so, is there any effort to deny them the Working Families line next time?

  •  Sounds like President Hope and Change (0+ / 0-)
    It's all further proof that Cuomo, despite occasional departures like gay marriage, is deeply anti-progressive and has little interest in being a Democrat.
    Corporatists continue to strengthen their grip on the Democratic party.

    So what are we going to do about it?

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