Much has been written in these letters, assailing the President as the Great Capitulator, both in his handling of last year's debt limit compromise and his most recent offer, allegedly throwing his very base under the bus. I am not so sure. The President may have made a great move by turning the Godfather on his head, and
Make the GOP an Offer They Can't Accept
Many would have the President stonewall, on the theory that hardball is the only way to play this game -- stick it to them until they capitulate. While storming out of a room is emotionally satisfying at one level, it may not be the best tactic in negotiations, even against supposedly hardball negotiators, particularly when you hold a strong hand with negotiating 'leverage.'
Indeed, for those of us who negotiate for a living, one textbook strategy, that of Fisher and Ury from Getting to Yes, is to calculate your best alternative to a negotiated agreement, estimate that of the opponent and plan accordingly. http://en.wikipedia.org/...
Of course, things are quite complicated when negotiating tactics for public policy. Not only are issues such as the underlying public policy are involved, but also political "optics," political "capital" and actual power. Much depends on the consequences of doing nothing.
Where, as here, the goal is to be true to your oath of office, but also to control and consolidate power, I am quickly coming to the view that the President is playing a textbook game, and doing so masterfully. Deeper than the derisive 11th-dimensional chess moniker thrust upon him, it seems that he is probably doing precisely the right thing at the moment. Discussion why after the noodle.
Assume that Boehner has no outs in the present situation -- he can never whip his caucus into a position remotely agreeable to the President's BATNA, hence no agreement is possible, the best thing to do is to go into the BATNA with the strongest political position, and the best opportunity to wedge the GOP against itself to consolidate power should they decide to be the boys storming away from the table.
What is our BATNA?
(1) Bush tax cuts expire
(2) Payroll tax cuts expire
(3) Debt ceiling not lifted
(4) Sequester on military and non-military spending
While this seems pretty bleak, it is actually building a table that can work well for us -- if we play the game properly. Possible upsides:
The sequester and tax cut combo creates a monstrous wedge between right wing constituencies, the Military-Industrial Complex screaming about their death as contracts are pulled or reduced and the financiers who live for their special tax break on income beyond $250,000.
If the debt ceiling is not lifted, then we risk forever losing leadership in the global economy with our currency being an investment of last resort, and the monstrous increase in cost of debt service effectively multiplying our debt problem into a genuine crisis. We become the biggest deadbeats in history. As the public begins to understand how dire and irresponsible this is, the call for solutions will be screechingly loud, and the extra-constitutional solutions grounded in the fourteenth amendment or the miraculous "platinum coin" resolution will be acts of heroics, though the National Journal will no doubt scream to the heavens.
How can this be made to be acceptable or work for us? If we can create optics that will assure the public that the new world order is totally the creation of the GOP, if we can create a sense of necessity that will make the Harvard Law Journal President Nobel Prize Winning Person of the Year the economic genius for his efforts to finesse this crisis somehow, the President "cloaked with awesome powers" will be able to make do, and indeed be a hero for so doing.
How to accomplish this? By being the one who actually made the "sacrifice all" offer to head this at the pass. By being the one who tried to avoid it, while the GOP peacocked and thus defecated over the nation. By not being the one who proposed increasing taxes on the middle class while giving the rich yet another tax break. All of these are memes that worked to assure Re-election of the most vulnerable incumbant in recent memory. Why not again?
Put that all together, what is the play when you failed in negotiations to get the GOP to move quietly, and adjudged that, for whatever reason, they will never move beyond (indeed possibly even to) a "Plan B?" That's easy, turn the Godfather on its head and
Make them an offer they can't accept.
Make it the most reasonable, sweetest, lets just do this thing and fix it all, Kumbaya offer. And when the shit hits the fan because you correctly estimated their ludicrous Banta, then AND ONLY then, show your claws. In the meanwhile, you haven't hardened the other side much, they might keep Boehner in his chair for his negotiative heroics, and now the other side has little choice but to capitulate or face ruin.
Its not a bad BATNA, and it leads to the same position that the Left Hardliners are screaming for. Except it puts us at the competitive lead, with better optics, better capital and a meaningful way to Get to Yes. Even if we have to "hunker down" because the other side is playing ignorant hardball, the public will SEE that their pain is because of the GOP. This may be the best way to assure a dynastic Democratic control of the Legislative and Executive Branches and, with it, eventual control of the Judiciary. If the GOP is making the mistake of their political lives (consistent with the "stupid party" moniker), lets make sure we turn the screws.
The President may not be the Great Capitulator after all, but rather a savvy, smart negotiator who actually paid attention in Law School.
Just saying.