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Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) walks with House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) to a meeting with House Republicans on the
We have yet another reason House Republicans will cave on debt limit
It's already pretty clear that Republicans are ready to cave on the debt limit, but if you want some reassurance, check out these two questions from the new ABC News/Washington Post poll (conducted Jan. 10-13 with a margin of error of ±3.5 percent):
Q: If Congress does not raise its borrowing limit in February, the federal government will have to default on its loans and/or shut down some of its operations. Some people say the borrowing limit should be raised only if spending cuts also are put in place. Others say the two issues should be kept separate. Do you think raising the borrowing limit should be tied to spending cuts, or should these be kept as separate issues?

Should be separate issues: 58
Debt limit should be tied to spending cuts: 36

(CORRECTION: Ack! When I first posted this, I transposed the two numbers. Rest assured, 58 percent think the issues should be separate. The numbers are correct now.)

So by a greater than 3:2 margin, Americans reject the the idea that debt limit increases should be tied to spending cuts. Moreover, if you look at the cross tabs, only 48 percent of Republicans support linking the cuts to the debt limit. And the numbers actually get worse than that for Republicans, because nearly one-third of the 36 percent who think the issues should be linked still do not favor default if spending cuts can't be agreed to:
Q: (IF Tied to spending cuts) If Congress and the Obama administration do not agree on spending cuts, should the borrowing limit be raised anyway OR should the government default on its loans and/or shut down some of its operations? (Based on respondents saying borrowing limit should be "Tied to spending cuts")

Default anyway: 63
Raise debt limit anyway: 29

That means only about 1 in 4.5 Americans actually support following through on the GOP's debt limit bluff. And that's even before they've seen the disastrous consequences of what would happen. Those numbers would only get worse over time. Bottom line: If House Republicans followed through, they'd be kissing their own asses goodbye, from a political perspective. And if there's one thing politicians hate to do, it's kissing their own asses goodbye. In the end, they'll cave.

Originally posted to The Jed Report on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 07:51 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Jed, something seems wrong in the first text box (8+ / 0-)

    re:  the numbers in relation to the question.  It would seem that if "58" percent chose the option "debt limit should be tied to spending cuts", then that works against what you're arguing here about how the public doesn't support the GOP position.

    Did you mean "should not be tied to spending cuts"?

    That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

    by concernedamerican on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:02:09 AM PST

  •  your interpretation doesn't make any sense (7+ / 0-)

    your quote box says:

    Should be separate issues: 36
    Debt limit should be tied to spending cuts: 58

    exactly the opposite of what you wrote.

    "Kossacks are held to a higher standard. Like Hebrew National hot dogs." - blueaardvark

    by louisev on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:02:34 AM PST

  •  Jed, I think you have your data backwards (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Because otherwise, it suggests that the majority of Americans want the Debt limit attached to spending cuts. Just wanted to clarify.

  •  Transposition error Jedward. (3+ / 0-)
  •  Jed, your numbers are switched. If not the poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ericlewis0, OLinda

    results are the opposite if what you say.

    Further, affiant sayeth not.

    by Gary Norton on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:05:57 AM PST

  •  thanks for the clarification Jed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jed Lewison, politicalceci

    even Kos does it! (sometimes)

    "Kossacks are held to a higher standard. Like Hebrew National hot dogs." - blueaardvark

    by louisev on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:24:06 AM PST

  •  They want (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    it separate, but then what do they want.

    Overall do they think the debt limit should be raised? I read about a poll recently that had most Americans saying the debt limit should not be raised, leading one to believe they still don't understand what it means.

    •  GOP got new orders. (0+ / 0-)

      From yesterday's Financial Times.
      (behind paywall)

      Hardliners shift stance on US debt ceiling
      By Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Washington

      A conservative activist group backed by the industrialist Koch brothers is urging Republicans to show restraint during US debt ceiling negotiations, representing a shift in position by the usually hardline Americans for Prosperity.
      The move by the influential group underscores concern that a political stand-off over extending the US’s borrowing limit, which many Republicans are pushing for at the end of February, would diminish public support for sharp cuts in government spending, AFP’s stated goal. AFP opposed an agreement that raised the debt ceiling in 2011 because it said the deal did not go far enough to cut spending
       “We’re saying calibrate your message. Focus on overspending instead of long-term debt,” said Tim Phillips, president of AFP. “Focusing on [the debt ceiling] makes the messaging more difficult.”

       “Our number one priority is to stop government overspending. The debt limit is a symptom of that but if debt becomes the be all and end all, it becomes easier for liberals to push a combination of future spending cuts that are not enforceable and immediate tax increases,” he said.

      They're going to use the sequester, not the debt ceiling.
      •  AFP is, frankly, full of SHITE (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        If we want to stop overspending, we should stop electing spend-crazy Republicans who pass unpaid-for tax cuts, medicare programs (Part D), and conduct wars on credit cards.

        ALL these things were part of the disastrous 8-year Bush 43 regime, and caused a major part of the current recession.

        The spending that has been enacted since Obama took office is spending to restart the stalled economy, and dig us out of the hole the GOP put us in.

        The GOP are effin' idiots - all of them.

        Help American return to sanity - vote the GOP OUT OF the House Majority and reduce their numbers in the Senate in 2014 elections. America requires Democratic action in order to survive!

        by dagnome on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:47:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  But not so dumb that GOP leaders don't realize (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          that shutting down the govt for even a few days will
          have citizens suddenly remembering how much they LIKE all the govt programs they take for granted.

          Like the Post Office,  SS and Medicare, the Vets administration, National Parks, Centers for Disease Control,
          the Courts, Food Safety inspectors, etc.

          And when people remember how much they like all that good govt they won't be so eager to cut the spending that pays for it.  

          AFP doesn't want to remind about all the good that government does that affects citizens' everyday lives.  I mean,  people might demand higher taxes on the 1% to help pay for it.  Oh, horrors!

  •  which reminds me. everything doesn't need (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Berkshires, politicalceci, asindc

    A poll to dictate action. Some things you just do because they are right to do. Pandering has overtaken a lot of focus from reasonably considering paths of governance and initiative.
    The creeps who are poisoning our lives with legacy lies passed on and around to obscure justice and solvency should be shouted down louder and oftener by every voice hearable.
    As stupid as much discussion and background information has become, it's miraculous when clear majorities get it right enough to make intransigent representatives act correctly.
    We used to expect that. We used to insist on it. Congress needs to remember where they came from, what they grew up with. They've ground to a stupid halt and talk despicable gibberish. They can put a ceiling on that. And I hope they bump their stupid heads.

    clime parches on. terms: ocean rise, weather re-patterning, storm pathology, drout-famine, acceptance of nature.

    by renzo capetti on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:29:01 AM PST

  •  As If Public Opinion (5+ / 0-)

    Matters to politicians generally (public option, no Social Security cuts) and Republicans specifically.


    If I was a communist, rich men would fear me...And the opposite applies. The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

    by stewarjt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:48:27 PM PST

  •  After the way Republicans have terrorized (4+ / 0-)

    our country over these debt ceiling debates, I sure wish we had another crack at Reagan and Bush running up all that massive fucking debt.  Those assholes.  

    "If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin." Charles Darwin

    by Rockydog on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:49:25 PM PST

  •  You wouldn't know this from my FB newsfeed or (4+ / 0-)

    people at work....if I hear "Cut spending" one more time from so called educated people who teach, no less.... I'm gonna go off.

    •  Tell them you agree (3+ / 0-)

      Let's cut military spending back to zero.

    •  I have yelled... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      "cut WHAT spending" at the internet several times already this year. Never any specifics, but no one in the media asks them to get specific, much less press them on it when they don't have an answer. I'm not convinced there is enough spending left to cut without throwing out the very idea of a federal government. which may well be the point, I suppose.

      "There is one rule for the industrialist and that is: Make the best quality of goods possible at the lowest cost possible, paying the highest wages possible." -Henry Ford

      by sixeight120bpm on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:07:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  When the 'spending cuts,' i.e. gutting SS/MC ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hulibow, midwesterner

    ... are spelled out, the numbers go to about 98-2 against the GOP.

  •  20% = (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    their little looney tunes contingent, as always, that makes life hell for the rest of us.

    I know it takes republicans about ten times longer to figure things out than a person of average intelligence, but I do think that we are seeing the beginnings of a shift back to the left.  Longtime republicans are switching parties, the Hastert rule has been broken, and there are fissures in congress that are becoming more and more public.

    It's only a matter of time before the GOP leaves the 'baggers in the dust, and becomes the Blue Dog party....

    "Mediocrity cannot know excellence." -- Sherlock Holmes

    by La Gitane on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:07:19 PM PST

  •  I look at that picture (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and I can't help but think of Scarecrow and Tinman ( or maybe one is the cowardly lion) heading down the yellow brick road to see the wizard who is a fraud.

    Then they came for the trade unionists,
    and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.

    by Ex Con on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:08:27 PM PST

  •  Good to know that the public is not fooled (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but the actual reason that the House GOP will fold is that their corporate owners would be hurt badly by another debt ceiling/default scare and so will sit them down, when the time comes, and explain the facts of life.
    And some will still dig in their heels, they'll be gone after the next election.
    The ones that get the message will work with Shadow Speaker Pelosi to get it done.
    The Hurricane Sandy bill was the template. Or maybe it was the "Fiscal Cliff" deal.
    But Boner's caucus is splitting up, the Hastert rule is broken, the GOP is on it's way into the wilderness.

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:11:12 PM PST

  •  Rs "kissing their asses goodbye" what with (2+ / 0-)

    Citizens United and gerrymandering seems a bit optimistic to me. Hope I'm wrong.

    Furthermore, this is a relatively rare instance in which the interests of Wall Street and Main Street happen to more or less coincide and thus may not represent a significant ideological or political realignment. Again, hope I'm wrong.

    The frog jumped/ into the old pond/ plop! (Basho)

    by Wolf10 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:12:39 PM PST

    •  In the short term, yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      A lot of these people will be insulated from consequences, at least in the House.  But the gerrymandering has also created a sort of reality bubble where they have to keep running farther and farther away from the general public in order not to get primaried by even crazier teabaggers.  I just can't believe that this is a sustainable strategy.  It seems inevitable that the house of cards they have constructed will have to collapse eventually.

      •  Perhaps in 2014? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        It seems inevitable that the house of cards they have constructed will have to collapse eventually.
        With a BIIIIG push from activated Democrats who are effin' fed up with this GOP stupidity, and finally willing to do what's needed to "reclaim our rogue government"

        Help American return to sanity - vote the GOP OUT OF the House Majority and reduce their numbers in the Senate in 2014 elections. America requires Democratic action in order to survive!

        by dagnome on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:50:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Unfortunately.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The polling in each of the Republican who are elected from a +3 or more Red District would probably be 50-50.  And, among Republican PRIMARY voters, 30-70....just guessing.

    We no longer  should look towards opinion polls of the country.  We here need a Wingnut House District Poll to tell us what REALLY needs to be seen as opinions these CongressCritters care about.

    "The man who has his millions will want everything he can lay his hands on and then raise his voice against the poor devil who wants ten cents more a day" - S.Gompers

    by Copp on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:24:25 PM PST

    •  I agree with this...opinion polls as far as whole (0+ / 0-)

      nation and gathered sentiment, do not nor will ever influence Congress like we hope, as they view it through the lense of anything other that their own district and internals.

  •  Judging from the picture (0+ / 0-)

    accompanying this article,  my former congresscritter Eric Cantor needs to see a surgeon immediately for a broomstickectomy before said broomstick penetrates his brain. Or perhaps it already has....

    Being "pro-life" means believing that every child born has a right to food, education, and access to health care.

    by Jilly W on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:26:37 PM PST

  •  GOD will PROTECT HIS OWN (0+ / 0-)

    so we do not CARE what the GODLESS Amercan PUBIC thinks if all they want to do is SPEND MONEY on LAZY GOOF OFFS read JOHN 1:3!!!!!!!!!! So WAKE UP Amrica before it is TOO LATE.

  •  These polling numbers apply (0+ / 0-)

    likewise to the Republican fall-back hostage of government shut down. The GOP sees the shut down as a more palatable alternative, but there is no way that the average voter is drawing this distinction.

    They will get exactly the same level of disapproval with either course, and the the bright ones left in that party, realize it.

  •  Unfortunately... (0+ / 0-)

    ...the public and its opinions don't have anything to do with what goes on in Congress.

  •  Contra the argument above... (0+ / 0-)

    ...that is, if Republicans follow through with their threats to default on the nation's debt, they'll be kissing their own asses goodbye from a political prospective...

    You've forgotten the changes in the House of Representatives, which has welcomed a noisy stupid batch of Tea Party wingnuts in 2010, and evidently some of the ones who lost in 2012 were replaced by even crazier Tea Partiers (Steve Stockman of Texas, for instance, who returns after once being elected in the 1990s).  

    NOTHING is going shake these wingnuts loose now that the GOP has had a chance to gerrymander districts in their GOP-controlled states.

    Crazy in our federal government is here to stay, I'm afraid.

  •  What a great big load... (0+ / 0-)

    ... of BS... Who were the pollsters? SEIU?? give me a break. Either the poll was rigged or they're using that as an excuse to cave in and raise the debt limit.. Why don't they just say the hell with it and just start printing money until it all collapses and then print some more? Stupid idiots.. everyone of them..

  •  My view of most opinion polls (0+ / 0-)
    6 in 10 eligible American voters are registered to vote.
    5 in 10 registered voters turn out in off elections.
    What matters are the party cores, not Joe Six-pack's response to an anonymous survey.

    No offense to Jeb!

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