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A boy listens to U.S. President Barack Obama speak on immigration reform at Chamizal National Memorial Park in El Paso, Texas, May 10, 2011. REUTERS/Jim Young
National Review plays dumb.
John McCain, a principal instigator of the Senate group, has made his motives clear: “Elections, elections — the Republican party is losing the support of Hispanic citizens.” His plan apparently is to develop a bipartisan approach to helping Republicans win elections; perhaps Chuck Schumer imagines other outcomes. Senator McCain has not said why he believes that the interests of Hispanic citizens are to be identified with those of non-citizens, why those interests should trump the interests of citizens (including Hispanic citizens) harmed by the lawlessness of our borders, or why a senator with an established record for supporting amnesty could not muster one in three votes from those Hispanic citizens.
George W. Bush, the most Latino-friendly Republican in forever, got 40 percent of the Latino vote (I know some claim it was lower, but I'm not convinced). McCain got 31 percent, Mitt Romney 27 percent. Why did McCain only get 31 percent? Because he spent the entire GOP primary season promising to vote against the same immigration reform policies he had previously championed.

But let's look at this another way: electorally.

President Barack Obama won last year 51-47. Had Mitt Romney equaled Bush's 40 percent with Latinos, the totals would've been 50-49 (around 49.8-48.8 to be exact). Had Romney gotten ~44 percent of the Latino vote, he would've won the popular vote.

The Latino community is growing. It went from 9 percent of voters in 2008 to 10 percent in 2012. The median age of natural-born Latinos is 18. The percent of the non-white vote is expected to rise another two points in 2016 (and Asians and African Americans are even more Democratic than Latinos).

Republicans will never win a majority of the Latino vote. There are simply too many core disagreements on both economic on social issues. But 40 percent isn't out of the realm of possibilities. And once you get to 40 percent with brown Americans, you don't need to squeeze out as many more (diminishing) Anglo voters. It's still a tough task for any Republican, but not as rough as losing 75-80 percent of the non-Anglo vote makes it.

The percent of the non-Anglo voters is expected to rise another two points in 2016, from 28 to 30 percent. Think of it this way: If Anglos were 70 percent of voters last year instead of 72, it would've boosted Obama's winning margin by 1.4 points, from:

Obama 51.1, Romney 47.2


Obama 51.8, Romney 46.6

If that seems crazy, it is! And this is the dilemma the McCains of the GOP are trying to address. Yes, they won't win the Latino vote, probably ever. But they have no prayer of winning the White House unless they begin to chip away at Democratic advantages with non-white constituencies. And they'll never stand a chance of doing that unless they stop standing in the way of reform.

I know it's an impossible choice for them—most of those legalized immigrants would end up Democratic voters. But conservatives have a choice between a short term problem and a never-ending one.

Because the growth of Americas brown population isn't slowing. So Republicans can either take their bitter medicine (immigration reform) and suffer short term, or stand in the way of it, and suffer short term ... and long term.

Originally posted to kos on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 01:33 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  We need immigration because we need to (5+ / 0-)

    To increase diversity so that there are more progressive voters.

    To increase affirmative action to reduce racism.

    And to make sure that there is no labor shortage.

    We need I migrants from Mexico because there are too many jobs that Americans don't want to do.

  •  How do you chip away (16+ / 0-)

    at the non-white voter gap, without completely collapsing the angry-white voter base? Xenophobia and white male privilege are the cornerstones of modern conservatism.

    After decades of defining the battle lines, how does the GOP throw it in reverse and still get their troops to show up and vote?

    Seems like a tough sell, even for the RW Noise Machine.

    Wanted: New sig line. Must be insightful with a good sense of humor. Non-smoking, no pets.

    by Herodotus Prime on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 01:44:28 PM PST

    •  Obama '12 has proven that we don't need (11+ / 0-)

      To worry about the racist white male vote in order to win.

      The country has changed, and for the better.

      I like the fact that the Democrats are the Natural Governing Party thanks to immigration :)

      •  WE don't need to worry about AWM (5+ / 0-)

        but the GOP has a real problem because they do.
        It would take a very skillful walkback to get their base to swallow real immigration reform.

        If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

        by CwV on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:14:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think that Anger was always latent in some (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          a2nite, The Marti

          people, but in others it has been revved up. It seems to me that from 2008-2010, there was just a horrible anti-immigrant sentiment flooding the airwaves, comments sections, etc.

          There are some people who just believe what they here or see. If all they see of immigrants are people being arrested for drug crimes or any other negative stereotype then they will think about that group as "bad". If other things were emphasized, like family values, the work-ethic, respect for authority and the elderly, then people would think differently. Well, some people anyway.

          •  it's always been there (0+ / 0-)

            people were just not paying attention and personally, I have always seen the work-ethic, respect for authority and the elderly....wish I saw more of that in us who were born and raised here.

            mittens=edsel. no matter how much money is spent to promote it, if the product sucks, no one will buy it.

            by wewantthetruth on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 04:08:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The elderly in the U.S. are (0+ / 0-)

              well respected in society.  They get Medicare, SS benefits and pensions and have AARP fighting for them.  

              It is legal for them to discriminate in housing against people with children.  Those "retirement" communities, they call them. Grrrrr.

              It's us working stiffs that need some respect.

        •  Lindsay Graham said a while back... (0+ / 0-)

          ...that "we're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

          Graham knows that his party, the GOP, is dependent on the "Angry White Male" segment of the population, which is slowly decreasing as percentage of the national electorate, as its political base.

          Over the next several decades, the GOP will have to pull itself to the center in order to remain relevant on the national political stage, as ultra-conservatives will probably only be able to get elected in some pockets of the Deep South (such as Graham's home state of South Carolina) and Interior West a few decades from now.

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:42:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Victims of their success! The wars on women, (6+ / 0-)

      Blacks, homosexuals, Hispanics, workers, immigrants, people of religions that are not theirs, etc. have been so successful among their racist base that Republicans cannot put the genie back in the bottle.  Their base demands racism/xenophobia/hatred and since the base is all they have they will always play that card in the elections.

      They somehow thought that Cuban-Americans did not pay any attention to their campaign of hatred against all Hispanics (since local ads were always sure to attack Castro and pretend to be for Cuban-Americans), but Republicans forget that the inter-tubz carries their campaigns-o-hatred to everyone, even HIspanics like Cuban-Americans that had  overwhelmingly supported Republicans since Bay of Pigs.

      Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

      by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:14:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I concur (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        they cooked their own gooses and people are more in tune to what is really going on than they could get away with before the explosion of social media, but I would not expect angry. old white guys to get any of this.

        the only change from'08 was how open and brazen they were. not sure what they saw that the rest of us did not but none of them can stand on their own due to the self-inflicted gunshot wounds.

        mittens=edsel. no matter how much money is spent to promote it, if the product sucks, no one will buy it.

        by wewantthetruth on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 04:12:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Comparing McCain during his reelection and what (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        he is saying is amazing.  Do voters have such a short memory and the media just continues to prop him up with his reinvented views without showing what he said when he was catering to his base.

        Do not adjust your mind, there is a flaw in reality.

        by Shrew in Shrewsbury on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 05:09:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  They don't have a reverse gear (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Marti, a2nite

      as we can plainly see.

      The complete collapse of the Republican Party is the only way that any change there will come about.

      I think that we will end up with two Parties: an economic conservative one, and a right-wing social consevative/racist party.

      (I use the word "conservative" loosely here)

  •  Given how they jerrymandered their districts (5+ / 0-)

    here's betting they're afraid of an even shorter term catastrophe.

    BagNewsNotes: Visual Politics, Media Image Analysis

    by ksh01 on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 01:49:50 PM PST

  •  Sen. Rubio waded into RedState and got pummeled (8+ / 0-)

    He tried to make his case and, in my opinion, did quite well considering the audience he was addressing. He was not received well, not well at all. No less than half a dozen diaries decrying "amnesty" and the lack of an impenetrable force field around the country and the comments are very predictably vile.

    The folks there are not mainstream Republicans, of course, but that isn't the only conservative venue where similar sentiments are being voiced.

  •  They will never support this. Sure they may (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV, The Marti, a2nite, wishingwell

    play the game and pretend to be working for a solution, but in the end their hatred of "scary brown people" will always rule.  I doubt anything will ever be brought up in the House (unless Boehner knows he has enough votes to defeat it or has some major poison pills - like person-hood amendments or 50-year waiting period in the country of origin before granting a path to citizenship).

    Frankly I am also pretty sure that it will be filibustered in the Senate (I know, I know, they have a deal and Turtle McConnell swore he will not pull the football at the last minute anymore, but he will).

    The supposed lessons they learned from losing last November are already forgotten. Republicans are already gearing up for the 2016 primaries and we will long for the "moderate" primaries of 2012.

    Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

    by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:04:24 PM PST

  •  You left something out of your calculus.. (7+ / 0-)

    The GOP base hates the idea of giving the 'illegals' amnesty in any circumstances.  So, let's say they swallow their pill now and offer a path to citizenship in hopes that someday, they may begin to attract minorities again.  That will piss off their base, who in turn will primary any GOP congressmember who votes for the bill and then elect folks who are even more rabidly anti-brown.  Which drives away minorities even more. And leads to more electoral losses because even reasonable white folks are repelled by the racism.  I think they are fucked.  They have kept the Southern Strategy and it its latest manifestation is the Teabaggers.  They have no way of putting that toothpaste back in the tube.

    'Guns don't kill people, video games do - paraphrased from Lamar Alexander (Sen-R-TN)'

    by RichM on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:07:06 PM PST

  •  They could do the right thing with (8+ / 0-)

    regard to obtaining power.

    Do what is right; this will please some people, and astonish the rest. - Twain
    I would be both pleased and astonished by the Republicans doing much of anything because it was good and decent.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:08:04 PM PST

  •  It seems to me... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark, The Marti, rosarugosa

    ...that the growing Latino demographic means that Republicans ought to support immigration reform and then figure out how to attract Latino voters.  Worrying about adding more Latino voters with amnesty is in essence giving up on the notion that they might one day win them over, and I don't think the R's can succeed as a party without doing that to some degree.

    •  yeah those provisions (0+ / 0-)

      to "certify" border security first and then there is a 15 year wait......those are not winners if you're an immigrant legal or otherwise.

      mittens=edsel. no matter how much money is spent to promote it, if the product sucks, no one will buy it.

      by wewantthetruth on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 04:21:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  i vote for the gop suffering forever. (7+ / 0-)
    GOP can back immigration reform and suffer short term, or suffer forever
    as long as no one has to suffer because of them, that really works for me.


    by doesnotworkorplaywellwithothers on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:09:11 PM PST

  •  Have To Mix Cruelty In With The Compassion (6+ / 0-)

    The proposal to to make people pay back taxes for the years they were illegal is brutal. It will weaken compliance. If the tea party is going to go along with this someone has to suffer.

  •  Republicans are in kind of a damned if you do (5+ / 0-)

    damned if you don't situation... Bending a little bit on immigration reform won't win them much, if even any latino support. On the other hand, if nothing happens the blame will clearly be on them and their already dismal numbers will only get worse.  Plus there's the whole fact of the Crazy Right, who will be (and already are) outraged at the slightest hint of support for even minor reforms.  Politically speaking, it's a pretty shitty situation to be in.

  •  It's the GOP. (4+ / 0-)

    Of course they'll suffer forever. They live to bear their crosses and clutch their pearls.

    "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for a real Republican every time." Harry Truman

    by MargaretPOA on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:21:35 PM PST

  •  Republicans have this nasty habit of... (6+ / 0-)

    Getting themselves into fucked-fucked predicaments.

    I love it.

    Somebody has to do something, and it's just incredibly pathetic that it has to be us.
    ~ Jerry Garcia

    by DeadHead on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:22:25 PM PST

    •  Choosing Short-Term Opportunism (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Republicans have worked themselves into this predicament precisely because they have always chosen the short-term solution over the long-term.  They're predatory opportunists, which shows as well in their economic ideology.  This type of mentality always goes for the short cut, easy fix, and they wind up in a tar pit as a result.  I usually think "Cartman" from the "South Park" show as the perfect example of the modern Republican.

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:51:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  they would have to undo 10-20 yrs of demonizing (4+ / 0-)

    and myths and lies

    unless dems compromise to get team limbaugh backing it's not going to happen.

    they played this to pass voter suppression laws around the country, among other things,  and there's little chance they're going to convince those people they've been turning against latinos to all of a sudden get a heart or a brain.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:28:35 PM PST

    •  but they could pretend and then bomb it and then (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      spend the next 2 years convincing a lot of americans and immigrants and latinos and dems and progressives that they tried but all politicians are the same, dems won't do anything either, so why even vote in 2014. with their talk radio advantage they might make it work again, like in 2010.

      This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

      by certainot on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:32:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  nothing to gain (3+ / 0-)

    Most of the even somewhat moderate GOP politicians in congress are out of office, and therefore the people left mostly represent very red constituencies.  These people have very little to gain and much to lose (tea party primary) by supporting what will be called amnesty.  The good news is that a filibuster might not happen as there are SOME moderate Rs in the Senate, but you might have to wait until 2014 to get it through congress.

    I doubt it will hurt them that much in the long run though as this isn't so black and white as Jim Crow and integration.  

  •  This one line show how clueless they are... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Marti, a2nite
    Senator McCain has not said why he believes that the interests of Hispanic citizens are to be identified with those of non-citizens

    We were not ahead of our time, we led the way to our time.

    by i understand on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:33:20 PM PST

  •  Looking at the current crop of R's, I wonder how (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eyesbright, rosarugosa, a2nite, DianeNYS

    long they think they're going to be relevant, never mind a force to be reckoned with.

    They're aging out. McCain, McTurtle and Cryin' John are not going to be around forever.  Especially if they get primaried for not being far enough to the right.  Even the younger ones have crossed from fringe to f&ckin' nuts, so they won't be viable much longer.

    The younger generation of Americans do not see their world in the same terms that the current Teabagging Republicans do.  If television and radio changed my generation, the internet and social media have done the same for the last two generations. And that is a good thing!

    Every now and then, immigration becomes an issue in this country.  My ancestors (the filthy, drunken, lazy, stupid Irish) got the 'No Welcome Mat' thrown at their feet.  They took the jobs no one else wanted to do.  All the same crap that is going on now, went on for my ancestors...and the ancestors of everyone on DK.  Some had it even worse, as they didn't even ask to come here in the first damn place!

    With a little help, with a lot of determination, and with the challenging of the silly-assed stereotypes, each successive group of immigrants has found their place here.  And so it shall be again.

    And we are all the better for it.

    If the Republicans cannot understand that, they have no place in the future of this country, and we should wave them a hearty, "See ya!!" as the screen door hits them in the ass on the way out.


    We cannot call ourselves a civilised society if we refuse to protect the weakest among us.

    by The Marti on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:33:52 PM PST

  •  Votes are irrelevant. (0+ / 0-)

    Both party leaderships are corporate whores (engaging in war-profiteering, torture, bankster bailouts, deregulated trade etc,) and are very adept at making pro-corporate policy appear beneficial to the average Joe. We’d better support policy based on our own economic best-interests.
    The Democratic base has never had a solid understanding of basic macroeconomics, the Law of Supply and Demand being the leading example. While the so-called ’protectionists’ continue to clearly explain (over the last forty f*cking years or so) about what happens when the supply of labor increases while consumer disposable income/demand remains relatively unchanged, it produces a lower demand for labor and downward pressure on wages (as has already happened through ‘free’ unrestricted trade). This stellar counsel continues to be ignored as an overwhelming majority of Democrats now support loosening immigration laws (which will also produce a supply of labor increase).
    The so-called ’protectionists’ will continue to be proven right on these issues (i.e. the Law of Supply and Demand is called a “Law” because it is, wait for it, A F*CKING PHYSICAL/PHISICAL LAW, i.e. it’s like gravity, there are NO F*CKING EXCEPTIONS TO THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
    Those who are well-off enough to profit from this supply of labor increase, mostly republicans (yes we must not forget that George W. Bush tried, and Ronald Reagan actually succeeded in INCREASING THE SUPPLY OF LABOR by legalizing millions of immigrants, which officially makes this yet another TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN POLICY) will profit from the cheap labor while those who are not well-off enough to profit from the supply of labor increase will see their real wages fall (i.e. the Law of Supply and Demand). Consumers may get lower prices on some products/services, but it will be the ’save money live better’ mindfuck, downward pressure on wages will continue to outrun whatever savings they getting, because ALL OF THE CORPORATE SAVINGS (from the cheap labor) DO NOT GET PASSED DOWN TO THE CONSUMER.
    Whether one understands the economics or not, the idea that getting more democratic votes as automatically being the ticket for higher living-standards for the working-class (while ignoring time-tested LAWS of economics) is a belief for the politically blind. We’d better support policy based on our own economic best-interests.

  •  They've been enthusiastically digging this hole (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Marti, a2nite

    for decades and it's going to take a long time to fill it in enough to get their heads above ground.

    Of course by then, they will enthusiastically dug so many more that a generation of Republicans may be fated to spend their careers doing nothing but trying to repair the damage.

    "The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

    by sceptical observer on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:39:14 PM PST

  •  Careful with the out-of-control hyperbole! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rosarugosa, bryduck, coffejoe
    Republicans will never win a majority of the Latino vote. There are simply too many core disagreements on both economic on social issues
    Never say never. There are still people alive who remember a time when the same could be said about Democrats winning a majority of the African American vote. But then along came demographic change and FDR/Truman, and everything got turned on its head.

    As much as we are enjoying the problems of the Republicans, they could potentially find someone who would be able to lead them out of the wilderness. Kind of like Bill Clinton recapturing the Reagan Democrats.

    Just because the Republicans seem to be on the ropes right now doesn't mean they will always be stuck there.

    •  I have been arguing similarly (0+ / 0-)

      in the comments for awhile now. It is hardly inconceivable of them to give enough lip service to Latinos and other minorities (if not real service, heaven forfend) to regain the upper hand during election times. It's not as if they don't have enough practice at deceiving their constituents in order to win votes.

      "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

      by bryduck on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 04:05:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In a universe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      where Democrats became Republicans and Republicans became Democrats, then "never" wouldn't apply. As is, it ain't gonna happen.

  •  Do you think this silly old man (McCain) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    realizes just how ridiculous he makes himself appear in the eyes of his countrymen with is endless carping, and whining?  At least no one calls the silly old thing a "maverick" any longer.

    You have the right to remain silent. If you waive that right you will be accused of class warfare.

    by spritegeezer on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 02:58:50 PM PST

  •  we are only doing the GOP a favor really (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, coffejoe

    This is their last chance to stay viable. And allowing them to hop on is not asking for much

  •  Point of information- (0+ / 0-)

    Does "Anglo" refer to english speaking, english origin, white, or what?

    I'm about 1/2 english, 3/8 irish, and the rest french, german, and dutch.

    Or should I concern myself with the definition at all anyway?

    Or use this, which says it depends on who is using it and where?

    Moderation in most things.

    by billmosby on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 04:15:08 PM PST

  •  I don't get why they are trying at all if it will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    only make their own base mad and yet they won't gain any votes.

    If I were a bagger, I would say screw it and not even try.

  •  They should ask themselves this question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Senator McCain has not said why...a senator with an established record for supporting amnesty could not muster one in three votes from those Hispanic citizens.
    Then they should compare how immigration friendly and winning candidate Bush did with Latinos against how overtly immigrant hostile and losing candidate Romney did with same.

    There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

    by slothlax on Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 07:26:41 PM PST

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