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I know it's early, and I already knew Hillary polls strongly, but wowza.

The results are within the margin of error, but Clinton leads Marco Rubio 46% to 45%,
Chris Christie 45% to 43% and Rick Perry 50% to 42%. She has a +7 favorability rating
(50/43) with Texas voters and strong support among moderate voters—72% view her
favorably, and she crushes her potential GOP opponents among this voting group.
“If Clinton is the 2016 nominee, she could conceivably expand the electoral map for
Democrats in deep-red Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

Needless to say, the Democratic nominee doesn't need to win Texas.

But just forcing the GOP candidate to actually spend money and resources there would effectively preclude a realistic GOP win.

Other interesting parts of the poll
- Hillary's lead comes from younger voters

18 to 45 - 50% to 38% vs. Christie
46 to 65 - 43% to 45% vs. Christie
over 65 - 41% to 45% vs. Christie

18 to 45 - 50% to 41% vs. Rubio
46 to 65 - 45% to 45% vs. Rubio
over 65 - 43% to 52% vs. Rubio

18 to 45 - 55% to 42% vs. Perry
46 to 65 - 50% to 39% vs. Perry
over 65 - 45% to 48% vs. Perry

- Hillary crushes Rubio 66%-30% among Hispanics
- In the Republican primary, Rubio leads with 21%, Mike Huckabee 14%, Rand Paul 13%, Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush 11% each
- 70% do not want Rick Perry to run for president
- 20% support Texas seceding from the union
- 42% are Dallas Cowboys fans; 50% are not

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (16+ / 0-)

    "It is, it seems, politically impossible to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to prove my case -- except in war conditions."--JM Keynes, 1940

    by randomfacts on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:29:51 PM PST

  •  Why is Hillary even being considered for (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ginny in CO, purplehaze, anastasia p

    Preznit? I thought Obama taught us all a lesson that Conservadems do not have our best interests at heart.

    Can we find someone else please?

    “In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.” Terry Pratchett

    by 420 forever on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:32:01 PM PST

    •  The reason she's being considered... (10+ / 0-)

      ...at least by folks like me, is that I'm not seeing a good progressive that can be elected.  There's still time for one to emerge, but, barring that, I'm willing to go with another centrist.

      •  Let's nominate Ralph Nader. That's the ticket. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MJB, Anne Elk, JamieG from Md

        Not!

        Everyone is crying out for peace; no one's crying out for justice...

        by mojave mike on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:57:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The reason she's being "considered" (0+ / 0-)

        is she's a known name that the media can get ears/eyeballs writing specious stories about. PPP can gin up interest and attention with this now especially "yowsa" finding.

        How on earth can you know four years out who can be elected? If you aren't willing to even CONSIDER a "good progressive" four years out but have already conceded to a statist retread, then YOU are partly responsible for why we won't get a "good progressive."

        Jon Husted is a dick.

        by anastasia p on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:11:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  There Will Be No Progressive POTUS (0+ / 0-)

        The best we can get are moderate Republicans like Carter, B. Clinton and Obama. I'd rather have another like Hillary than ANY Repuke. The last Democratic POTUS was LBJ.

    •  Obama taught us a lesson about what? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      louisprandtl

      Why is it that, as a culture, we are more comfortable seeing two men holding guns than holding hands?

      by jsfox on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:40:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If you haven't learned a lesson with the (0+ / 0-)

        Obama's great gift to Wall Street (legalized bank fraud), his big FU to the medical marijuana community (worse than G-Dub - yikes!), his bizarre obsession with drone strikes (now including american citizens!), and his inexplicable hatred for whistleblowers (they're just like spies!), among other things, then no wonder you're ok with another Clinton at the WH.

        Personally, I'm done with the turd way.

        Oh, there's that torture thing too.

        “In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.” Terry Pratchett

        by 420 forever on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:48:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I like Obama (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BachFan, anastasia p, JamieG from Md

      He could be better, but I think he's done a good job, all things considered. Hillary is pretty progressive to me.

      "It is, it seems, politically impossible to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to prove my case -- except in war conditions."--JM Keynes, 1940

      by randomfacts on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:41:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama & Hillary are virtually the same, policywise (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mcartri

        So much of the "Hillary 2016" narrative is driven by a media that likes stories about known names. Some of it is most likely a nostalgic desire to rewrite history or go back to an earlier time. None of it is productive or forward-looking or remotely indicative of what the race will look like two or three years from now. Remember that at the end of 2007, the race was set in stone, according to the media and many many many of us out here: it was going to be Hillary vs. Rudy, and nothing and no one could change that. Most people didn't even give a passing thought to other possible scenarios until the 2008 primaries were under way. (I actually read the landscape better than the Wise Pundits, and was clear that Rudy had no chance of being the GOP nominee).

        Jon Husted is a dick.

        by anastasia p on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:14:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  The President is not a leader (0+ / 0-)

      I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but any president is limited by the wider discussion.  Sure, the president has perhaps the loudest voice in that discussion, but the point of winning the White House is to nudge the country in the direction you want so that by the end of your term the country is more liberal or conservative.  Real change is brought about by pressure from below, not dictates from above.

      There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

      by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:11:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You mean someone who can win? (0+ / 0-)

      For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

      by Anne Elk on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:41:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  She was up 30 in Iowa in Nov 2008 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ginny in CO, SDuvall, LaurenMonica

    Shortly thereafter, she lost.

    On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

    by glutz78 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:32:07 PM PST

  •  While this is (8+ / 0-)

    an interesting data point 4 years out from the election. However, in the grand scheme of things it is beyond meaningless.

    Why is it that, as a culture, we are more comfortable seeing two men holding guns than holding hands?

    by jsfox on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:39:09 PM PST

    •  Amen, your sig is excellent too. ;) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      anastasia p, slothlax, Jim H

      I may have to put this on a sticky so I can copy and paste it 500+ times.

      Hillary will be 69 in '16, she's been in the uber stress since '92. That does bad things for your health. POTUS is the most over the charts stress there is. Bill doesn't need to be First Guy. Their remaining years will be much healthier and more productive if she 'retires' now - like Carter, Bill and Al have done.

      There is an incredible denial in looking ahead at this point and seeing the credible candidates. If anybody seriously suggested in '04 that Obama would be a contender in '08, my guess is it got a lot of laughs, or 'in our dreams'. Why are we so convinced we have to rely on the old guard to take us into a future that is going to take more than 8 years of bold action to turn climate change, the economy, resource conservation, and the empire around? Probably a few other things?

      I love Joe and think he has been perfect for VP. He'll be 74 in '16. Don't even go there, whether he does or not.

      "People, even more than things, have to be restored, renewed, revived, reclaimed and redeemed; never throw out anyone. " Audrey Hepburn "A Beautiful Woman"

      by Ginny in CO on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:17:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not just that, Ginny, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slothlax, Jim H, Ginny in CO

        but in 2007, he was considered a lightweight contender. Heck, in early 2008, he was barely considered likely to prevail. I remember going to the county Democratic caucuses to elect convention delegates on a cold January day in 2008, and it was all Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. I was an Edwards supporter, but I couldn't find the very tiny Edwards caucus, and someone I know who was active in the Obama campaign bribed me to come vote for his slate by promising they would serve Indian food. So I did. The Indian food was good, and my friend got elected a delegate.

        I ESPECIALLY agree with your statement "Why are we so convinced we have to rely on the old guard to take us into a future that is going to take more than 8 years of bold action to turn climate change, the economy, resource conservation, and the empire around?"

        It bothers me to see such a failure of imagination and vision among people who claim they want to further progressive values that all they can envision is a rerun of the past. We should be looking for newer, younger leaders, not recycling familiar names.

        Jon Husted is a dick.

        by anastasia p on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:19:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was Edwards too although Obama was (0+ / 0-)

          really upsetting everything. Our caucuses were just after Edwards dropped out, no one from Obama's campaign came to talk for him so I winged it. He won and had stunned everyone in Iowa. Really exhilarating coming from a family very active in the civil rights movement from ~ '47. Both my parents were '83, thrilled, amazed and doing plenty to get him elected. They are still alive, were a little less active for '12 and just as proud of him.

          I was working for a home care agency and spent a lot of time with one of the nurse specialists. She had Reagan pictures on all the walls in her office. A bunch of us were standing at the elevators talking and when we got to the campaign I expressed a generic comment about how historic Obama's success was. I think it took her 5 milliseconds to say "He'll never win."  Unfortunately I left before the election and didn't get the chance to see how she took the win, let alone the inauguration.

          Hoping he will grow a little bold this term.

          "People, even more than things, have to be restored, renewed, revived, reclaimed and redeemed; never throw out anyone. " Audrey Hepburn "A Beautiful Woman"

          by Ginny in CO on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:34:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  It's not denial (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ginny in CO

        It's that many people see Hillary as the best chance to elect the first woman president.

        Just because of that, there will be a lot of pressure on her to run until either she definitively slams the door shut, or other viable women candidates for 2016 take the stage.

        Please help to fight hunger with a donation to Feeding America.

        by MJB on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 04:51:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I want to as well on the 1st woman as we did (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MJB

          on the 1st AA. She has a lot of talent and experience. Environment is not included. It is essential. Nor do I think she is progressive enough. Couple of votes really upset me.

          Other women will be getting up there, and men. I am more interested in the best Dem than a first or second anything.

          "People, even more than things, have to be restored, renewed, revived, reclaimed and redeemed; never throw out anyone. " Audrey Hepburn "A Beautiful Woman"

          by Ginny in CO on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:08:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agree on the progressive part... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Ginny in CO

            ... another reason that people like HRC as a candidate is that she is tough.  She won't let the VRWC roll her over.  

            The value of being tough and standing up for yourself can be seen in the contrast between HRC's performance before a senate committee last week as opposed to Hagel's performance before a senate committee on Thursday.  We absolutely have to have a presidential nominee with the gumption to take everything and dish it back twice as hard.  No more Dukakises, ever.

            So, if a candidate like that, only more progressive, emerges, then yeah, a lot of us will take notice.

            Please help to fight hunger with a donation to Feeding America.

            by MJB on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:26:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well as a Dukakis Democrat, I resemble that. ;) (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MJB

              He had a hell of a lot of highly organized, under the radar negative slander from the evangelical movement. What's his face who did the Willie ads and apologized years later when he had an incurable brain tumor was all too effective above the radar.

              And then the Dems kept repeating the GOP talking crap instead of having his back. It was really clear to me from an experience at the caucuses and a seminar I took after, that the GOP machine was in high gear, very effective and really ugly with the lies, etc. It took 20 years for Dems to really get that method through their heads.

              Meanwhile we lost Gore and Kerry. I sometimes wonder why some of the candidates are willing to jump in our campaigns as much as we tear down our own.

              Tough talk doesn't impress me that much. She is smart but I don't think she is very good in how she articulates things. The 'what does it matter' comment that so many were impressed by I thought was lame. I thought Hagel dodged the stoopid from Cruz and McCain, letting them show the extent of the crazy ideology. Just had to score points, regardless of meaning or importance.

              I grew up with a lot of intelligent conversation and think that people who can articulate their ideas well, understand how other people think so the comments are geared to greater understanding get farther. In politics you have to be willing to 'lose' the argument with adversaries as long as you win with your cohorts and take that to the public.

              What Obama has really done for us is the 21st century presidential campaign management, organization, etc. With the GOP digging their own grave, as long as the redistricting fails, we should be able to win '16.

              "People, even more than things, have to be restored, renewed, revived, reclaimed and redeemed; never throw out anyone. " Audrey Hepburn "A Beautiful Woman"

              by Ginny in CO on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 12:06:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Terrible news! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MKinTN, bythesea, slothlax, louisprandtl

    I can understand why the commenters are upset by this.

  •  Well, if Hillary does decides to run, Texas (3+ / 0-)

    certainly would be a place worth setting up a ground game in.   At the very least, forcing Republicans to spend money to contest Texas to oppose Hillary(or whomever our 2016 nominee is) is good strategy.

    I agree with President Obama, our country's journey is not yet complete. We must continue the work that our forebearers at Seneca Falls started, and put the Equal Rights Amendment into our Constitution.

    by pistolSO on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:44:11 PM PST

  •  Heard her on NPR the other day (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    randomfacts

    she didn't sound like someone that had any interest in running. Hope I'm wrong, but she did, more or less, say that she was done with politics.

    •  in 2008 (4+ / 0-)

      I held out for the longest time before deciding to support Obama over her.  would love for her to run...

    •  I wish people would pay more attention (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew F Cockburn

      to the message she is sending them and start seriously looking at who the best people to support in 2016 would be. It's not like she's the ONLY person who can SAVE US ALL. (She'd be more of the same, so if you're frustrated with Obama, you'd be frustrated with Hillary). I think she is done with politics and ready to move on.

      The argument that we need her because she's "known" is specious. I am hearing this locally here in Ohio too about our gubernatorial race two years from now. Very few candidates start out with high name recognition. They build it.

      Jon Husted is a dick.

      by anastasia p on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:21:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Forget 2016 (9+ / 0-)

    and 2020 since Hillary will wrap those up. I want to see some polling on 2024.

  •  Wasn't there a poll from a few weeks ago showing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew F Cockburn

    Hillary beating Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in Florida!  

    I wish we had more popular and better younger candidates. Yes, we've still got time to build them up, but it is fun to imagine such a presidential landslide that we manage to take back the House before the 2020 or 2030 censuses allow redistricting. But, I haven't even seen a solid plan suggesting that will have the power to change the current gerrymandering in 2020 or 2030. It may get worse.

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:37:52 PM PST

    •  Remember what our lineup was in 2004? (0+ / 0-)

      I don't remember the junior senator from Illinois being on my short list for 2008. We have got time.

      •  Did you watch Obama's 2004 DNC speech? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Andrew F Cockburn

        You didn't think he was going to be a serious contender in 2008?  Everyone I know did.

        •  The last political speech I remember watching (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          slothlax

          on TV was Reagan at the Republican convention in 1976. I had to take a cold shower afterward to restore my Democratic principles. Man, was he good.

          So no, I did not watch Obama. I did hear about it, though. I figured that in ten years or so he might really be going somewhere. But 2008, no way.

          I should have been more prepared. JFK came out of nowhere. Carter came out of nowhere. Clinton came out of nowhere. Even FDR was kind of a surprise. We are liberals and always looking for the great new thing.

          The Republicans, being conservatives, usually nominate the guy who was the obvious runner up the cycle before, or at least an insider that everyone knows. The only exception I can think of is Goldwater.

          •  That leaves an open field then, right? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Andrew F Cockburn

            Romney didn't really have any credible opponents.  Maybe Huckabee from 2008?  Any other former candidates who are anywhere close to viable?  That will be weird for Republicans.

            There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

            by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:18:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Jeb Bush? Chris Christie? (0+ / 0-)

              This was a strange year for them. Most of their big guns sat it out because it looked like Obama was a lock.

              They have got a problem. Possibly the most electable candidate they had this year was Huntsman, who barely moved the needle in the primary. Christie would be a formidable candidate in 2012 but I can't imagine that the Tea Party is going to forget him cozying up to Obama. Maybe they will run McCain again.

              •  Jeb could fit the formula (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Andrew F Cockburn

                George W was not involved in 1996, IIRC.  So I suppose being related to a former President can put you into "presumptive frontrunner" status.

                Christie would have to run in 16, then get the nomination in 2020 after Jeb loses the general.  Since Christie will be a couple years removed from the state house at that point, he would have time to distance himself from his bipartisany stances and 2012 will be a distant memory.

                There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

                by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:34:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  A couple more that fit the pattern: (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  slothlax

                  Ryan, who was the good soldier in a losing cause and maybe has just the right amount of crazy to please the Tea Party without terrifying the few remaining rational Republicans.

                  Santorum, who was the only one who really gave Mitt much of a run in the primary (please, please, please).

                  •  Ryan is a good one (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Andrew F Cockburn

                    I should have thought of that.  I kind of already dismissed Santorum earlier, he was barely credible in a year where Mitt Romney was the frontrunner and by 2016 it'll be ten years since he held elective office.  But a boy can hope, can't he?  The danger is that whoever is the nominee always has at least a chance of winning.

                    There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

                    by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:24:07 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Let stop kid ourselves. No Dem will win TX in 2016 (0+ / 0-)

    just not yet.

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:17:47 PM PST

  •  Living here in Texas (0+ / 0-)

    where Democrats haven't won a statewide race since 1994, this seems suspect.  President Obama got 41% in Texas this year, a drop from 44% in 2008.

    The 2014 midterms in Texas, where all statewide offices will be contested, will give a better idea of where we are at.

    Barack Obama for President '12

    by v2aggie2 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:20:18 PM PST

  •  A Democrat has as much chance (0+ / 0-)

    of winning Texas in 2016 as I do.  And,...like Hillary, I'm not running.  The GOP will have a better than 50% chance of winning in 2016, demographics be damned.  By 2016, there will be a lot of Obama fatigue.  The GOP House won't let the Dems pass any meaningful legislation in this term, and we'll be four years further removed from Bush and the collapse of 2008.

    Finally, there is no obvious Dem front runner, and nobody with the Obama magic.  There have been a lot of elections since 2008 (Mass special, other specials, the recalls in WI, the WI supreme court, etc.), and Dems have won exactly one of them - the one that Obama ran in.  

    Has anyone really looked at Hillary lately?  She looks very old (and who picked out those glasses?).  In our society, older men are perceived as distinguished.  Older women are just seen as old.  It's not fair, but it's reality - at least for the voters needed to win elections.  My guess is that the Clintons are living it up right now.  Both have had recent health issues, and a presidential campaign is not exactly good for relaxation.  She had her run, and came up short.  WHen she decided to be a good soldier instead of trying to make Obama a one-termer or torpedo him in the GE in 2008, she said goodbye forever to being president.  I'm afraid she'll just have to be content to make millions on the speaking/book writing circuit.

    Joe Biden couldn't have ever been elected to a national office without Obama's help.  He won't run, and if he does, he'll lose.  Joe is a good VP, because a little Joe in small doses is kind of refreshing.  All Joe, everyday, will be way too much for voters.

    Christie can't win his home state (or can he???).  Nobody has been elected without winning their home state in a century or more.  Rubio could win FL, but I'm not sure he's ready for prime time.  I think he'd crack under the pressure of a campaign.  That said, though,...George W. Bush stood up quite well to the campaign.  Who'd have thought?  Maybe Jeb?  He'd certainly be a charismatic candidate that the GOP could rally around, and he has very little baggage other than his name.  But, while 8 years is long enough from Bush to elect a republican, it may not be long enough to elect a republican named "Bush".

    2016 might be the day for someone we haven't even thought of yet.

  •  FWIW (0+ / 0-)

    I have a friend who is a self-described conservative Republican who absolutely LOVES Hillary Clinton.  In 2008, he got all misty-eyed at the thought of a McCain/Clinton ticket, something that made me laugh hysterically in his face.  And after last election day, he said he hoped she would run, and if she did he was voting for her because, when women run things, they just do a better job.

    I'm not kidding.

    Of course, he's an awfully nice guy, not a wing nut, conspiracy theorist.  I can't figure out for the life of me why he associates himself with the Republican party, maybe it's just something about growing up in Virginia, but he's pining for a chance to vote for Hillary Clinton for POTUS.  And he doesn't care who knows it.

    You hear about crazy, but it's rarer than you think. -Jon Stewart 1/10/2011

    Help Me Find Mister Boots

    by lcork on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:20:03 PM PST

    •  A lot of voters (0+ / 0-)

      vote for the GOP because they are the party of low taxes.  A lot of them don't hate blacks, don't want abortion to be illegal, couldn't care less about "women's" issues, or lesbians and gays.  They don't really believe any of the GOP rhetoric (bullshit).  They just want to keep more of their money.  Period.  If you want to call that "greed", then so be it.  To them, greed is good.  When Obama campaigns on raising taxes, he makes it easy for this group to vote GOP.

      I personally consider myself conservative on financial issues.  Once you make enough money that you have to write a check to the IRS every year (instead of getting a refund), it changes EVERYTHING.  That said, what you do in your personal life is of no interest to me, and is your business, as long as you don't push it on me.  

      The Clinton's were the perfect president for voters like me.  They stayed out of everybody's way,...personally, and in terms of the economy.  As my late Dad, a Roosevelt (and to be honest, a first term Reagan) Dem used to say,..."Bill Clinton didn't give us anything, but he didn't take anything away, either."  When people ask why I'm OK with a Hillary presidency (and to be clear, I don't think it's going to happen), I say "...a lot of people made a lot of money during he 1990's, including a lot of people like you and me."

      This is supposed to be a big tent party.  If voters like me are threatened, it will open the door for the GOP powers that be to do what I've been predicting for years - move to take over the Dem party (and leave the crazy fundamentalist, conspiracy, flat-earth crowd behind).  A socially tolerant, low tax party would be the majority party in the US, especially if it were named "Democrat".

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