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Despite any thoughts of an orderly selection, guided by God for the next pope, the reality is far different.   Serious political forces are in place in order to place the next pope.   With such a historically strong Italian root, the Papacy is going to have a lot of heavyweight contenders with very different ideologies.   Using the current betting odds, I decided to lay out who's in contention and what it means if any of them get the nod.

The Front Runners:

Cardinal Peter Turkson, 64 Line: 7 to 2 Country: Ghana
Elevated to cardlinalate by Pope John Paul II

Some have said that Cardinal Turkson would be a very progressive, forward moving Pope.  This is not assured.  Cardinal Turkson was ordained to the priesthood in the US, in 1975.  Educated in the US, Cardinal Turkson would be the first African Pope, and has said - as cited frequently - that he MAY support use of condoms inside a marriage if one partner is shown infected with HIV.   That having been said, Turkson largely modified his belief on this in the past few years, and has advocated abstinence for those with HIV/AIDs, and gave one public interview to this effect:

The question of HIV/Aids … I think in Africa there are so very, very many various scenarios involving the HIV/Aids question. There is a situation in Southern Africa which is tragic, which is very pressing and that's where most of the references about the situation of HIV refers to. I personally have an experience of this in Botswana where I spent some time and I witnessed the fact that almost every weekend, about four-five people are buried, young people and not. It's like … it's dissipating the work-force of the Nation and the effect is bad. So the treatment of it: I mean, there are two prevailing … I suppose this, in this regard: there is the discovery now of the antiretrovirus, and it is either the antiretrovirus or it is the use of condom to stop the spread of HIV/Aids, unless we go with the abstinence, you know, and fidelity to partners and things like that.

And from my own, you know, we've learned from Ghana we've not done a total and thorough research on this, but the small titbits that we have from our hospitals, because in Ghana the Catholic Church is small, about 30 per cent, of all the health institutions in the Country; next to the government, we provided the biggest number of health facilities, so from this small survey we've discovered in our hospitals, when even people propose, you know, the use of condom, it becomes effective only in families where they resolve also to be faithful. The ordinary use of condoms, just as a stop of Aids, it is not the given, appreciable resort in our case.

When young people resort to condom, it is only also when it goes with fidelity, in that situation where one of the partners may be suffering from HIV/Aids themselves. When that is the case, let's talk it over plainly here: we are talking about a product of a factory, and there are different qualities. There are condoms which arrive in Ghana (where in the heat they burst during sex), and when that is the case, then it gives the poor a false sense of security which rather facilitates the spread of Hiv/Aids. And when that is the case, then we are reluctant even in the case of, you know, conjugal relation and people who are faithful, people are reluctant to talk about it.

But still our primary concern and our priority are such that what we will talk first about will probably be this: the abstinence and loyalty and fidelity and you refrain from sex when it is not the case. And as once I suggested to somebody: if anybody came to me ever with Hiv/Aids and wanted my view, I know that in all situations of pastoral counseling the pastor never decides what a candidate must do. It's the same in psychological counseling situations: you just expose the issues, discuss the issues with the candidate and allow the person to decide, take his own decision. And when that is the case, I would not undervalue the possibility that somebody who has Aids, recognizing his own Christian commitment, would simply just decide to refrain from sex. I have not come across too many, but I have come across a few; a few Christians and Catholics, who recognizing that they have Aids, have just refrained or refused to have … because of fear of spreading it. Some would, in such a situation, have advised the use of condom by the partner who has Hiv/Aids so it doesn't spread. But again, in our part of the world, even the use of condom is sometimes risky: risky in the sense that will we have cases of condoms that have burst during sex and it is they themselves who have come to talk about it otherwise we would not have known it in our hospitals.

Turkson would be in this situation the one of the more potentially progressive of all the front-runner candidates out there, though not by much.

The next in line by the odds makers,

Cardinal Marc Ouellet, 68, Canada Line: 4:1
Elevated to the cardinalate by Pope John Paul II
Significant views: Belief that abortion is unjustifiable, even in cases of rape.

There is a very strong push behind Cardinal Ouellet.  Currently the head of the Congregation for Bishops, he would be seen by several as the Pope of the New World.   But the real push to enable Oullet to get this high in the odds is that many of the conservative wings are lining up behind him as their best shot to stop Turkson.  Ouellet had been climbing the list for the last few years, but in the last few days his odds have found real gas.  Conservative wings within Italy who believe that the odds of an Italian Pope are diminished might be swayed to take Ouellet over Turkson and some odds now have him as a frontrunner.

Cardinal Ouellet has been a major backer of the idea that abortion in all cases (including Rape and some cases of Life of the Mother) are abhorrent and mortal sin.   Ouellet has also been an advocate of the belief that the rise in sexual cases regarding the church is due to a lapse in who gets admitted to the priesthood.  Though not as forcefully backed as others, Ouellet would be the conservative front runner, and that may get him the papacy.

For most liberal Catholics, the appointment of Ouellet would be a body blow.

Cardinal Francis Arinze, 80 Country: Nigeria Line: 6:1
Elevated to cardlinalate by Pope John Paul II

Odds makers had originally put Arinze higher, but his age looks to be a serious factor here as well as the trend lines backing the top two.  Arinze would be your other potential African nominee for Pope, but unlike Turkson Arinze would be considered one of the most conservative nominees imaginable.

Having turned 80, he cannot vote for the next pope, unlike his fellow options.  If selected, his age would be the biggest factor.. a decision to elect an older pope to table the issue again for later.   Arinze Papacy would very well duplicate the terms and ideals of the current See, and his views on Abortion, Birth Control would be considered extremely conservative.  Selecting of Arinze would be a sign that the Cardinals want to "kick the can" and nominate another short term custodian of the papacy.

Cardinal Angelo Scola, 71 line: 8 to 1Country: Italy
Elevated to become Archbishop of Milan by Benedict XVI

Scola would be considered one of the most progressive potential nominees.   Italy would love to lobby behind him, but it's that fact that may put him on the outside.  Scola became head of the Church related studies of Marriage, Youth Education, Sex, and Bio-Ethics.  He's published several articles, including a US published novel "The Nuptial Mystery", and was seen by many as the Cardinal most looking for a broad solution to the Sex/Pedophilia scandal in the US and elsewhere.

Scola's views on many issues are "cloudy" but he tips his hands somewhat.  In 1995, Scola referred to changes in Church Policy, especially in regards to stem cell and bio-ethical research.

At 20, Italian cardinals comprise the largest national voting bloc. Many cardinals lean toward tapping an Italian because they have centuries of experience running the Rome-based church bureaucracy. Milan Archbishop Dionigi Tettamanzi backs condom distribution and has spoken supportively to anti-globalization rioters. Venice Patriarch Angelo Scola thinks the church should loosen up bioethical rules on issues such as stem-cell research. Vatican Secretary of State Angelo Sodano, the most powerful prelate behind the pope, handpicked a majority of the bishops responsible for covering up clerical sex abuse.
If there were to be real potential liberalization in the Church, this would be a bold pick.   But it's doubtful.   Really doubtful.   Still, if there was a move to truly liberalize the church, this would be the front runner.

And beyond this, everyone goes to 10 to 1 and below.

Of those, I just want to highlight a few:

Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, 78 Line: 13 to 1 Country: Italy
Elevated to cardinalate by Pope John Paul II

This would be one of the most disastrous picks for anyone with a liberal viewpoint who is a member of the Catholic Church.  But despite the odds makers putting him so  high, I don't see a path for Bertone to become Pope in any vote.  Bertone's career is stacked with real controversy, from concerns over his publications regarding Fatima to claims in the press that it was the fault of admitting gay priests that resulted in the incidents of pedophilia.  

Bertone has been adamant in maintaining his belief that Gays have no place in the church and has extended this to include complete excommunication of those who have dealt drugs or used extensively for their role in idolatry.

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, 70 Country: Italy Line: 15:1
Elevated to cardinalate by Pope Benedict XVI

Another VERY strong conservative on the list, thus putting him on the outside.   Bagnasco has professed the belief that abortion in all cases is wrong (Rape & Life of the Mother not acceptable).   But Bagnasco's anti-gay approach earned him a series of protests and threats, which gives you an idea of how far he went.  Most famous for this statement:

"Why say 'no' to forms of legally recognised co-habitation which create alternatives to the family? Why say 'no' to incest? Why say 'no' to the paedophile party in Holland?"
Bagnasco would be the MOST conservative on this list, advocating that Catholics cannot in good spirit allow state money to pay for health care, support or means to endorse "the gay lifestyle".

He's a longshot and really has no shot.. however, those who would back him are quickly lining up behind Cardinal Ouellet.  So, his collapsing candidacy may turn to the benefit of other conservatives.

Odds are provided by the Irish Paddy Exchange.  (seriously) and the British Line.

Please note: during the time writing this, the odds for Ouellet have continued to move up, putting him in a tie to ahead in the polling.  If conservatives drop out and line up behind him.. especially if the Italians split and back him, he will have the inside track.

Originally posted to tmservo433 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 07:29 AM PST.

Also republished by Street Prophets .

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (15+ / 0-)

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 07:29:11 AM PST

  •  tmservo - thank you for a thoughtful (7+ / 0-)

    diary providing information on the front runners in the election of a new Pope. We have had, and will likely have more, snark and satire diaries on this topic which I personally find very disrespectful.

    It is interesting how you can bet on anything and that there are published odds on the selection of a new Pope.  

    Thanks again for your respectful treatment of this topic. A tip and rec.

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 07:55:03 AM PST

    •  Yeah, I noticed all the snark (6+ / 0-)

      And I get it.   Still, this will be one of the more powerful political and religious forces in the world and I figured somewhere it should be discussed seriously of what the outcome will mean.

      Most people don't follow who could become pope or what the implications could be.   But the Pope has a significant role in the way the church spends money, allocates resources, etc.

      Even though I'm not religious (lapsed catholic), I still find this topic to be one worth taking seriously.

      Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

      by Chris Reeves on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 08:03:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The compromise candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tmservo433, VClib

         Daniel  DiNardo, Cardinal – Archbishop of Galveston-Houston

        •  Too long of odds (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          He will have no standing in the US enclave, and would be largely opposed by the Italian contingency who will never back him.

          He's the longshot, like 110:1.   I don't see a path for him to reach the papacy.   Most of the European Cardinals want to steer as far clear as possible from any connection to any US Archbishop

          Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

          by Chris Reeves on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 08:39:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Serious discussion (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tmservo433, jabney, VClib

        My paper (Dallas Morning News) devoted an editorial to the issue today. Pressing for selection of someone from Africa (or S. America.).  The print version had a graphic showing number of Catholics currently, and expected in 2050, in each part of the world.

        Even after John Paul’s death, there were growing calls within the church for his successor to be something other than another light-skinned European.

        Today, Europe’s Catholic population is declining and far outnumbered by the ranks of faithful in the developing world, particularly Latin America. Africa is on a track to equal Europe’s Catholic population sometime in the next decade. Central Africans, in particular, can benefit from the influence of a pope capable of persuasively defending religious liberty amid growing persecution of Christians by Islamist hard-liners.

        Some comments not so serious, though

        Interestingly enough, although the timing has been extended, Jesus is scheduled to take the place of Pope in the near future...if not with the retirement of this Pope. The fact that Jesus has returned to the everyday world is not well known, but it seems to me that His presence bodes very well for the future of Christianity especially now that it is so beleaguered.

        "No one life is more important than another. No one voice is more valid than another. Each life is a treasure. Each voice deserves to be heard." Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse & Onomastic

        by Catte Nappe on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:31:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I am an ex-Catholic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmservo433, DJ Rix

      with 16 years of Catholic education.

      It is my Mary-given RIGHT to snark about the Pope.  After all the years I spent in retreats and religion class, I was TAUGHT to snark by the nuns.  Every ex-Catholic school child is a natural snarkster. It's a survival trait.

      The last time we mixed religion and politics people got burned at the stake.

      by irishwitch on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:52:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  irishwitch - we all have free speech rights (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and I don't rant in the comment section of the diaries I find disrespectful. I don't comment at all. However, I don't think that snark and satire diaries of other religious leaders would be so welcomed here, unless they were evangelical Christians. It's open season on them year round.

        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:50:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          VClib, irishwitch

          If people want to snark they can (and I have)

          But I also think this is a very important subject for policies of an entire faith for the next decade or more.   And knowing who the players are is going to be pretty important.

          Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

          by Chris Reeves on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:14:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Read the part about EX0Catholic and (0+ / 0-)

          16 years of Catholic education? There is no creature as blasphemous as a Catholic school child. We traded holy cars during compulsory daily Mass. In retreat we amused ourselves by making up names for Biblical rock groups.  One of my friends put her missal cover around a James Bond book during the enforced retreat.  

          WHen the church leaders EARN my respect, I'll give it to them.

          ANd in the ensuing 40+ years since I left the church, they haven't done naything  at all to earn back my respect.

          Well, the nuns on the bus have, but theya ren't the leadership--and you know how the Pope treated THEM,

          The last time we mixed religion and politics people got burned at the stake.

          by irishwitch on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 07:49:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Republished to Street Prophets. nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Catte Nappe, tmservo433
  •  Turkson... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmservo433, jabney, irishwitch

    Impossible to see him as 'progressive:' he's defended the "kill the gays" law in Uganda.  Of course, that probably increases his credentials with the Cardinals...

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. -- Arthur C. Clarke

    by mathGuyNTulsa on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:55:42 AM PST

    •  You have to compare (3+ / 0-)

      To those around him.   They will tought him as progressive.   But, FYI, in comparison to Ouellet and Arinze, he would probably be seen as so because of his views on HIV.

      The only candidate in here who most on the left would see as semi-progressive would be Scola, because of his views on sex, stem cells, etc.

      But in comparison to what we think of as progressive, he'd still be conservative.

      Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

      by Chris Reeves on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:05:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The last time there was a chance of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cassandra Waites, kat herder

    a decent, liberal, non-misogynist, non-sex-hating Pope was int he 90s---and that was in an Andrew Greeley novel called White Smoke.

    When I was in high school, we used to read and do reports on articles int he Catholic paper for religion class (GREAT nun taught it--she was very liberal and believed the Pill should be acceptable as b/c since it suppressed ovulation). ANdrew Greeley was a yougn priest then, and he seemed so out of touch with the spirit of the times. Now he's a wild-eyed liberal--I think he changed and, sadly, so did the churhc.

    The last time we mixed religion and politics people got burned at the stake.

    by irishwitch on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:50:49 PM PST

    •  I could go for a pope like Gizone's in (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmservo433, irishwitch

      Joshua and The Shepherd (originally The Shepherd, published in 1990). But um, yeah, really unlikely they'd pick someone who was permitting married priests.

      That or an RCC Solaris. She's a character in Lackey's Valdemar series who is the first known female holder of her post as top priest in a theocratic nation due to some rather interesting miracles that were quite nasty for the corrupt hierarchy and rather nice though a bit 'how is this happening'-scary for everyone else present. And the nightmares of the corrupt leadership only begin there - she turns the entire structure of how the common laypeople (and the junior priests and other lower-status clergy, for that matter) in the country are treated upside-down in a very short period of time. It's pretty clear that the religious hierarchy in Karse - Solaris' nation - is roughly based off of Catholic-style clergy structures, especially compared to the neighboring countries in the series.

      But the nearest approximation to Solaris' selection would be St. Peter's statue at the Basilica putting his own miter on the head of a nun in the back row at Easter Vigil AFTER the pope was struck dead in a clearly divine smiting while raising the host (it was that kind of religious ritual moment), and not only is that NOT going to happen but it'd cause sheer havoc, more than a conservative guy getting picked at conclave AGAIN, and after all Valdemar is a magic-exists fantasy series that operates on entirely different rules.

      Prayers and best wishes to those in Japan.

      by Cassandra Waites on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:40:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't much care for the Valdemar books. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cassandra Waites

        I tried but they just didn't do it for me.  Tried a couple of them but gave up.  I prefer her 500 Kingdoms fiary tales and her Elemental Masters series--but really, I am not a big fan of hers at all because her prose style is sp pedestrian.

        I'd love to see a Pope version of Sephrenia, the sorceress in David Eddings' Sparhawk books (blessedly nothing like the misogynist  here who uses that name).  The Church Knight order (who seem to be based on the Templars) Sparhawk belongs actually have a sorceress who trains them--and kinda sorta worship the Goddess--and the Goddess is a wonderful Goddess, utterly deserving of worship, sense of humor and all.

        The last time we mixed religion and politics people got burned at the stake.

        by irishwitch on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:56:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thank you for the serious discussion. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    And all the information on the Cardinals.  

    I know this is an important subject to follow, but with all the other things I need to keep track of, I appreciate you getting this information in one place.

    And now I know the names I hope I don't hear.

    "May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house." - George Carlin

    by Most Awesome Nana on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:12:48 PM PST

  •  Turkson in particular galls me (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cassandra Waites, DJ Rix

    At least there's a perverse logical consistency to the positions of the other candidates, but the idea that condoms are OK only if you're married and one partner is HIV positive is just absurd. So let me get this straight, it's OK to have recreational sex if you're married and one of the spouses is HIV positive, but every other married couple is limited to procreational sex only?  

    It reminds me of the priest who told my parents back in the fifties to prick a hole in the condom they were using to collect sperm samples for a fertility doctor. They were infertile and using the condom to help them conceive, yet it would have been a sin, according to the priest, for them to use it without a pinprick in it.

  •  Once in a very rare while (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    there's a surprise; they choose someone they thought they knew but didn't really, or the office itself changes the occupant.

    "There ain't no sanity clause." Chico Marx

    by DJ Rix on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 02:13:00 AM PST

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