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Inside the cozy enclaves of GOP bonhomie—hunkered at the tables of see-and-be-seen Washington restaurants—Republican leaders are sourly predicting a party-busting independent presidential bid by a tea-party challenger, like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., in 2016.

To them, the GOP apocalypse looms larger than most realize. Dueling State of the Union rebuttals and Karl Rove’s assault on right-wing candidates are mere symptoms of an existential crisis that is giving the sturdiest Republicans heartburn.

National Journal

The GOP may well divide between those who actually believe the lies they've been telling for 30 years (Rand Paul) and those who don't believe the lies, but use them to obtain power and funnel government money to their patrons (Marco Rubio). The first group doesn't believe government can be useful and wants to get rid of it. The second doesn't care if government is useful except as a means of corrupt patronage.

The article suggest that a Democratic split is also possible. I don't see it as being as likely. Were such a split to occur, I think it would be between those who see government as useful for a smaller set of tasks, and those who see government as useful for a larger set of tasks. That divide is a little less absolute, and also both sides have the advantage of at least operating from observed reality.

The Democratic divide is a little more rational.

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