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  CNBC has started to use term "goldilocks economy" again for the first time since 2008, and bullish sentiment on Wall Street has reached multi-year highs.
   It might make you think that all is well in the global economy.

  But a casual glance around the industrialized world would change your mind.

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  We aren't just talking Greece and Portugal anymore. The "core" nations of the Euro, Germany and Italy and France, are also slipping into recession, as is Netherlands.

  Outside of the Euro, things aren't much different.

 The official figures were the fourth quarter of negative growth in the last five and mean that the UK flatlined for last year as a whole – posting zero growth.
    The economy is smaller than it was in September 2011 and still 3.3pc below its pre-crisis peak.
   Making matters worse, there was scant evidence in the data that the economy is rebalancing from consumption to manufacturing. Output by Britain’s factories fell by 1.5pc in the quarter and by 1.8pc for the year as a whole – the first annual decline since 2009.
 But don't worry. Leading economists (you know, the same guys who failed to predict the 2008 crash) are predicting that UK will avoid a triple-dip recession.

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  OK. So Europe is a disaster. But what about the rest of the industrialized world?
Let's look at the other side of the world - Japan.

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  Also, very ungood.

  In fact, while the stock and bond markets (even those in Europe) are booming, the real economy for almost the entire industrialized world is deteriorating, especially for the young.

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  Now it's only fair that I qualify this diary by saying that there is one other G7 nation other than America that isn't in recession - Canada.
   But like the U.S., Canada's economy isn't exactly booming either.

 Canada has been able to plod along thus far, yet is ill-poised to handle external shocks. Expectations are muted: the recent consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg was that our GDP should expand by a meager 1.8% in 2013, a pace commonly known as “stall speed.” As a leading trading nation, we are dependent on global demand for crude oil, metals and manufactured goods. If global commodity demand dips— something that looks increasingly likely— you could kiss today’s predictions of razor thin GDP growth goodbye.
 In 2011, exports from the U.S. totalled $2.1 Trillion and accounted for 13.8% of our GDP. If the world economy continues to slide, what are the chances that we will continue to avoid a recession? What are the chances that the booming stock market will continue to boom?
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Comment Preferences

  •  Jeez, Germany Had Been Doing Better. (11+ / 0-)

    They must be running out of customers with everyone else on the decline.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 10:39:36 AM PST

  •  Everything's been tenuous since, what? 2002? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    srkp23, isabelle hayes, worldlotus

    Since then (whenever then started I fergit) we've never been out of the woods but OTOH we are not as far up Shit Creek as we once were. I don't know where teh future economy is going. But I haven't had that sense for about a decade.

    Climate change is probably going to destroy ny existing trends anyway. Will that translat to a booming economy as we pull together towards a green energy future? Will it crash as existing commerce is destroyed by famine and drought?

    That's called above my pay grade.

  •  We constantly hear about globalization's glories (11+ / 0-)

    There's a downside to it, too, esp. when the austerians are prevailing here, too.  While faith-based economics is holy writ in 1 party, the other one has far too many who, as per Krugman, devoutly believe in the confidence fairy.

    Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not?

    by RFK Lives on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 10:44:25 AM PST

  •  just finished talking to my broker (7+ / 0-)

    he said now is time to hold cash and sit out this run up (as if I actually had cash).  His bet is that there will be a major correction (1000-3000 point drop) by 2014 and that will be the time to try to reposition

  •  They're talking about the official economy. (4+ / 0-)

    Nobody knows what the shadow or underground economy is doing.
    The people who study these things are convinced that the underground economy is an evil and has to be erradicated. That the underground might be a precursor or a variable of the real economy (dealing with real goods and services, not just financial transactions) does not occur to them. They do know that when governments are held in low esteem, the underground economy takes off, but they don't take it as a signal that something is wrong with how the economy is being run by officialdom.
    We've got an underground in the U.S., as well. Nobody even wants to know its dimensions because it scares them.
    All Republicans know is that it can't be all that bad because the people are obviously not hurting enough. Proof is that they re-elected Barack Obama.
    Four years of cratering the economy and the people still haven't learned. Now they'll give austerity a shot and see if that works.

    Fact is, most people who can like to work, but if they are confronted with road blocks, they'll find something else to do. People who don't DO, don't understand that.

    We organize governments to deliver services and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 10:52:37 AM PST

  •  CNBC had to scrape The Amazing Santelli off (0+ / 0-)

    the ceiling a few times recently

    1st it was the GOP meme of you're really not poor because ...... Rant

    His standard diatribe about the fed "printing Money"

    I want 1 less Tiny Coffin, Why Don't You? Support The President's Gun Violence Plan.

    by JML9999 on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 11:03:02 AM PST

  •  Isn't that the goal? (3+ / 0-)

    To be the last man standing, I mean.  Isn't that why our financial elites are immune from any sort of accountability?  Isn't that why we've given them free reign and unlimited credit?  

    When the crisis hit, instead of taking our lumps and using our still vast natural resources, capital, and labor, to rebuild from a stable foundation, we chose the easy road.  We chose to play out the game.  We went all in, and now we either use our blood and treasure to win the game at any cost, or we lose, quite literally, everything.

    Isn't that the reality of our current situation?

    So, in a sense, this is good news.

    Is it too late to change course?  That's $64 trillion question.  And millions of lives depend on the answer, albeit they are mostly not American lives at stake.

    "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Goethe

    by jlynne on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 12:49:11 PM PST

    •  another recent diary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jlynne, worldlotus

      premised that we're in such good condition on the global scale because they're buying our bonds, even if they stand to lose money in the worst case

      we're seen as still very powerful because our economy is so large that it can restart itself eventually and they'll not only not lose but get interest as well

      that's my very amateur impression also

       

      •  You are confusing things (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        worldlotus

        the bond market no longer has anything to do with the real economy.
           And its the real economy, both global and domestic, that is in danger. Bond prices won't make any difference in this regard.

        ¡Cállate o despertarás la izquierda! - protest sign in Spain

        by gjohnsit on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 03:30:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Krugman on Japan's relative performance (0+ / 0-)

    Japanese Relative Performance with demographics factored in does not reflect epic fail.   Still not great, but they're recovering from their bubble, and arguably were kneecapped by the earthquake and nuclear thingy.  Less inequality helps.  

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold...The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity" -W.B. Yeats

    by LucyandByron on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 01:59:23 PM PST

  •  I'm not a economist and am a lame layperson (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gjohnsit

    reading all this stuff.  But it sure looks like maybe the best thing to do is starting stuffing your mattress with your cold hard cash.  Since interest rates at the bank are laughable, it would almost make no difference.

    What I do think is that I need to yank daddy out of the portion of his portfolio that carries moderate risk.  82 is too old to be in the stock market anymore! especially if it's headed for tanking.  AGAIN.

    I'd be better off getting him into an annuity with those same monies - convert them over that is - or doing CD although I don't know the max amount a CD can be.

    Money, money, money what a mess!

    "For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." Ted Kennedy 1980 DNC Keynote Speech

    by Dumas EagerSeton on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 02:58:57 PM PST

    •  If he's 82, do you really even want an annuity? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dumas EagerSeton

      Don't you have to put a ton of money in even to get relatively small returns on annuities?  And trust that the company won't take your money, then go under?  Money, money markets, maybe even foreign accounts?  My mom keeps a Canadian account, although admittedly that's mainly because she's going up to Stratford to see plays all the time, and not as a 'hedge' against the US dollar falling...

      •  Good point. Maybe something simpler like a CD (0+ / 0-)
        If he's 82, do you really even want an annuity?
        He does have enough liquid $$ that he could keep a CD tucked away.  It earns somewhat higher interest than a regular account.  I'm still wanting to get him a better bang for his buck than the laughably low bank account interest offered by most banks.

        "For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." Ted Kennedy 1980 DNC Keynote Speech

        by Dumas EagerSeton on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:55:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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