Deutsche Bank just released new report concluding that global solar market will become sustainable on its own terms by the end of 2014. Deutsche Bank forecasts a global solar market transition from subsidized to sustainable in 2014.
This stunning revelation comes with their assessment of grid parity in India and Italy.
Rooftop installations are, in particular, expected to be a main focus, says Deutsche Bank. A trend for projects being planned with either "minimal/no incentives" has also been observed, despite the belief that solar policy outlooks are improving, particularly in the U.S., China and India, and "other emerging markets".Here in US, ground central for climate denialism and obstruction, it's easy to be discouraged about progress. But looks like the rest of world is moving ahead and dragging the US kicking and screaming along.
Looking at India, Deutsche Bank predicts that due to state and RPO programs, demand is likely to be strong, at between 1 to 2 GW. Meanwhile, it says, "grid parity has been reached in India even despite the high cost of capital of ~10-12%."
With system prices between €1,500 to €2,000/kW, net metering for systems below 200 kW and "advanced" plans for unsubsidized projects in the south of the country, Italy also "appears to be at grid parity". "Assuming small commercial enterprises are able to achieve 50% or more self consumption, solar is competitive with grid electricity in most parts of Italy," says Deutsche Bank.
With robust demand in the U.S., Deutsche Bank forecasts a residential solar market of around 1 GW and a commercial market of between 1.5 to 2 GW.