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ADP job report chart for February, released March 7, 2013.
Automatic Data Processing reported Wednesday morning that the economy generated a seasonally adjusted net gain of 198,000 jobs in February. That was 25,000 more than estimated by a consensus of experts surveyed in advance by Bloomberg. ADP also revised its calculation of private job creation in January to 215,000 from 192,000. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its report on job creation in both the private and public sectors on Friday.

ADP revised its methodology last November because its results had not been meshing well on a month-to-month basis with the private-sector job creation reported by the BLS. Although ADP's and the BLS's month-to-month estimates of seasonally adjusted private-sector job creation have varied by as much as 85,000 over the past six months since August, their revised totals for that period are quite close, with both reporting just over a million new private-sector jobs created.

The consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg sets the BLS job gain to be announced Friday at 171,000, and those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal at 160,000. The consensus of both sets of experts has been more often wrong than right over the past several years, so viewing it skeptically is always reasonable. The Atlanta Federal Reserve branch estimates that the United States requires 104,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the growth of the working-age population.

ADP bases its report on the payrolls it processes for some 406,000 businesses covering about 23 million employees. BLS bases its report on its Current Employment Statistics survey of 410,000 worksites and on the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households.  

One good feature of the ADP report is that it estimates job growth by business size. In February:

• Small businesses (1-49 employees) +77,000
• Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +65,000
• Large businesses (500 or more employees) +57,000
Jobs increased in the service sector by 164,000 in February, and there were 9,000 more factory jobs, according to ADP.

Another far less optimistic report on the job market's growth was also released Wednesday. TrimTabs Investment Research looks at daily income-tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury withheld from people's paychecks. It estimated just 100,000 new jobs had been created in the private and public sector in February. TrimTabs stated that the economy is "weaker than the conventional wisdom believes."

The firm also noted that, when adjusted for inflation, wages and salaries have dipped 1.2 percent since last February.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 07:44 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos Economics and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So 5 months of private sector job growth (8+ / 0-)

    are required to offset the stupid sequester.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 07:49:07 AM PST

  •  Excellent news! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ShoshannaD, jfromga, BenderRodriguez

    It is really wonderful to see the economy rebounding.  Of course, they won't give Obama any credit.

    He that chooses his own path needs no map. Queen Kristina of Sweden.

    by Boppy on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 07:54:46 AM PST

  •  If enough people are hired we won't need a (0+ / 0-)

    sequester (since with more hires there will be more revenue and less demand for government help). Unless of course there is a sequester which will kill jobs and make a sequester seem more necessary.

    Only in DC is this reality possible.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 08:08:33 AM PST

    •  Unfortunately that's not how it works! (0+ / 0-)
    •  The sequester is just another example of (0+ / 0-)

      Congress' perennial habit of using its power of the purse to rewards favored constituencies and punish the recalcitrant. This time, because Americans have been bad citizens and sent Fastbucks Obama back to the White House, the rationing has to be more overt and across the board.

      Besides, doing the Prodigal Son bit has also proved effective.

      When threats of deprivation are NOT carried out, the public rewards their sudden return to good sense. Just look at that weasle Scott in Florida. Deal in Georgia has pulled the same trick.

      We organize governments to deliver services and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 08:35:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks, MB (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades

    I'm always happy to see your periodic reports on this subject here. I'm trying to see this as a "glass half full."

    "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

    by bink on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 08:12:52 AM PST

    •  As I'm sure you know, I'm a "glass is broken"... (6+ / 0-)

      ...kind of guy when it comes to the economy. These stats matter and they show steady improvement. But far too many of those new jobs pay less and provide fewer benefits than the ones they replaced. And that's just one problem, a chronic problem that needs fixing. Since the Great Recession began 63 months ago, however, we've (understandably) been focused on the acute problems.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 08:20:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  not only is the glass broken... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Meteor Blades, Eric Nelson, HeyMikey

        but the water's toxic, too.

        How many times (and how many ways) can we spell out

        W -  R -  O - N - G - D - I - R - E - C - T - I - O - N
        for our elected officials???

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 08:39:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Record High Dow Jones Industrial Average (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Meteor Blades, Eric Nelson, HeyMikey

          Yesterday was greated with screams of ecstasy by our journalistic establishment. But when coupled with declining wealth, weak hiring and stagnant or declining pay for the rest of us ...

          It's just a sign that the elites are getting better than ever at extracting wealth and productivity from the population.

          The fact that we can have record and mammoth profts on top of weak hiring and poor wage growth seems does not seem good.

          "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

          by bink on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 09:02:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Whew hew, we're in the money, we're in the money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    As a percentage of national income, corporate profits stood at 14.2 percent in the third quarter of 2012, the largest share at any time since 1950, while the portion of income that went to employees was 61.7 percent, near its lowest point since 1966. In recent years, the shift has accelerated during the slow recovery that followed the financial crisis and ensuing recession of 2008 and 2009, said Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays.

    Corporate earnings have risen at an annualized rate of 20.1 percent since the end of 2008, he said, but disposable income inched ahead by 1.4 percent annually over the same period, after adjusting for inflation.

    “There hasn’t been a period in the last 50 years where these trends have been so pronounced,” Mr. Maki said.
  •  Does this give fodder to the anti-government (0+ / 0-)


    In that it is necessary to rely on the private sector to generate jobs?

    Or is that too weak to be convincing?

    Somehow to me this seems to lie in some nebulous middle ground where either side can claim that it supports their world view.

  •  What's weird is (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mbradshawlong, HeyMikey

    I looked at job growth statistics from 1994.  The lowest month was 203,000, the highest 466,000 and the annual monthly average was 320,000. No one could be shouting "Mr. President, where are the jobs?" back then. And yet Clinton and the Democrats still got whacked in the November 1994 midterms.    

    Imagine the psychological barrier now if we even just crossed the 200,000 barrier. And 466,000 jobs?  Seems inconceivable.

  •  It was nice while it lasted (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    somewhere around the summer there will probably start to be lags, if we're lucky, maybe not until fall as private sector starts to feel the sequester.

  •  Will be interesting to see (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    how the numbers are spun on Friday, as they are post sequester, but the sequester had nothing to do with it.  One wonders if that message will break through, or media will say "see the sky isn't falling" if numbers are reasonable.

    "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - Melissa Harris Perry

    by justmy2 on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 09:02:27 AM PST

    •  I think that is a risk (0+ / 0-)

      If you predict the sky will fall, and it doesn't, the administration will certainly take some hits.

      The impact the sequester will be slow, as we are currently in the notice period which will last through March. At the federal government employee level there will be an income loss, but not a lot of job losses as departments use furloughs as a way to meet their budget cuts. So there may not be a big spike in unemployment. Funding to states for education won't be noticed until next fall, although teachers who are terminated at the end of the school year will show up as unemployed in May and June. In the end the impact of the sequester will be very gradual. Because of the size, and complexity, of our economy, it is always difficult to isolate any single variable when analyzing employment data.

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 09:18:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yep. The BLS closes its survey around the... (0+ / 0-)

      ...12th of the month for its latest report (in other words, no data used from after Feb. 12 for the report coming Friday).

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 02:15:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Something junped out at me in this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    diary and I was hoping someone would comment on this:

    "The Atlanta Federal Reserve branch estimates that the United States requires 104,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the growth of the working-age population."

    Um, that estimation strikes me as low and not realistic. I was under the impression that the US had to generate closer to 250K per month to keep up with the working-age pop.  Can the Atlanta Fed be correct?

    •  I think it depends on the underlying assumptions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That 104K number I believe relies on lower labor participation rates that we have been seeing.  Higher job requirements estimates probably look more at all the people considered to be of working age, or rely on more historical (and higher) levels of labor participation.

      That's just a guess though--don't quote me on it!

    •  Up until late in 2011, the Economic Policy... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HeyMikey, Eric Nelson

      ...Institute estimated the necessary number as 127,000 a month. But because of the Census, they reduced it to 90,000. This is a fuzzy number always because it varies so much throughout the year. So the Atlanta Fed's calculator may not be perfect, but it's the best au courant statistic we have.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 02:17:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is great news (0+ / 0-)

    But, with the sequester we stand to lose 170 million jobs from what Maxine Waters stated, if that is e case we will be back to the numbers when Bush was POTUS we can't go back to that level.  If we lose 170 million all of Obamas hard work will be reversed, and every job he has helped create will be lost.  But the replilicans don't care.  

    •  I don't know what the actual number... (0+ / 0-)

      ...Waters stated was, but it certainly was not 170m, that being 17 million more than the entire U.S. labor force.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 02:19:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then she (0+ / 0-)

        Gave an incorrect number, because I heard the audio but I am sure the number will be in the tens of millions when the meat cleaver finally drops.  I've heard that airport lines are already getting extra long just like Janet napolatino from Homeland Security warned.  President Obama needs to force this to end.

        •  You heard right, but the number WILL NOT... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Eric Nelson

 in the tens of millions. From Waters's office to the National Review Online, which repeated the 170m slip-up:

          I just noticed a post by National Review On-Line contributor Charles C. W. Cooke about  House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Water’s obvious slip of the tongue (she accidentally said 170 million , when she meant 170 thousand) when referring to the number of  jobs that may be lost as a result of sequestration.

          I think this was below your standards, and hope you’ll reconsider the post.

          Eric Orner

          Deputy Communications Director
          Financial Services Committee
          Representative Maxine Waters, Ranking Member

          Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

          by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 03:19:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The number appeared to be high (0+ / 0-)

            But for sure 170k is well below e jobs that will be lost due to this craziness, I think 2-3 million is more in line.  Between teachers, TSA, police etc, it will take a few weeks before we feel it, but it's coming.  

  •  TrimTabs Investment Research (0+ / 0-)

    What's funny is that TrimTabs Investment Research, while utilizing data, makes the argument as the diarists points out suggesting the economy is "weaker than the conventional wisdom believes."

    Well, I'd say in the Bay Area the economy is stronger than conventional wisdom believes.  If there's any good time to network, build relationships and get hired, it's in the Bay Area economy, which is growing rapidly and I don't think it will calm down anytime soon.  Even Oracle is expanding its team quite significantly based on a couple of recent events I've been to at the companies Redwood Shores headquarters and San Francisco office.

    Now if we're thinking more nationally, ok, I can sense the economy is not as strong as we'd like to believe.  After all, states like Pennsylvania and even Oklahoma don't have the economy like the Bay Area.

    But if anyone is going to say California is becoming the next Greece because of its economy, I'm going to send them off to the Bahamas to sell coconuts.

  •  Lautenberg (0+ / 0-)

    FWIW, Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) was a co-founder and former CEO of ADP.

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