Happy Tuesday to Pennsylvania Democrats indeed!
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Tom Corbett- already among the country's most unpopular Governors- has seen his position worsen considerably over the last two months. Only 33% of voters now approve of his job performance, compared to 58% who disapprove. His net approval rating of -25 is 11 points worse than it was in early January at -14 (38/52). The only 2 Governors in the country with a disapproval rating higher than Corbett's are Pat Quinn of Illinois and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island.
In January we tested Corbett against Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak, Rob McCord, John Hanger, and Tom Wolf and he led all five of them. Now we find him trailing all five of them, in some cases by double digits. Corbett is down by 11 points each to Schwartz, Sestak, and McCord all by margins of 45/34. Tom Wolf leads by 9 points at 42/33 and John Hanger's up by 7 at 41/34.
What's particularly noteworthy about the substantial leads all of the Democrats have is that they come despite them all being relatively unknown. Sestak has only 52% name recognition and that makes him the famous one of the bunch- Schwartz is at 38%, Hanger at 31%, McCord at 30%, and Wolf at 22%. Most of the undecideds in the match ups are Democrats so it's possible that as the eventual candidate becomes better known they will build up an even bigger lead. - PPP, 3/12/13
PPP also notes that despite the Democratic candidates tested against Corbett lacking in name recognition, Corbett still trails them all. Joe Sestak has the most name recognition which makes sense because of his 2010 Senate run and he has been making the rounds in every country and all the news talk shows. What's even worse for Corbett is his party may turn on him when the 2014 GOP Gubernatorial Primary takes place:
Only 37% of GOP voters say they'd like him to be their nominee in 2014, compared to 49% who say they would prefer someone else. Corbett leads Bruce Castor by 20 points in a hypothetical match, 43/23, but that's been cut in half from what was a 40 point edge in January at 51/11. If 2012 Senate candidate Tom Smith were to challenge Corbett, the Governor would hold only a 37/33 lead. - PPP, 3/12/13
PPP also shows that Corbett's lousy ratings in their poll is due to his handling of the Penn State scandal as both Governor and Attorney General. Only 25% of voters approve of how Corbett handled the situation while 58% of voters disapprove. The other issue hurting Corbett is his decision to privatize the lottery. 17% support his plan while 67% who oppose it. Now here's the part that really hurts Corbett:
In both cases Corbett's leadership is being repudiated even by members of his own party- he has just 35/45 support for his handling of Penn State and 25/55 support for lottery privatization from Republicans. - PPP, 3/12/13
State Treasurer Rob McCord (D. PA) and Attorney General Kathleen Kane (D. PA) have been hitting Corbett really hard over privatizing the lottery and have been receiving praise:
Treasurer Rob McCord is using a clever legal argument to combat Governor Tom Corbett’s midnight privatization raid of the Pennsylvania Lottery, and it is worth looking at in detail.
After the 4:45 Friday announcement was made by the Corbett administration that they had accepted the bid of a foreign company, Camelot Gaming, Treasurer McCord immediately threatened to “reject payments associated with the business plan.”
Essentially, McCord is saying to Governor Corbett that “you bought it, but I ain’t paying for it.”
In a letter to the Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, McCord argues that the privatization scheme “involves the deployment of monitor- or video-based gaming beyond that authorized by current statutory law.”
McCord is using the language of Camelot Gaming’s own proposal against them.
Specifically, McCord is asserting it is the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board that has regulatory oversight over anything broadly defined as a slot machine, NOT the PA Lottery. - Keystone Politics, 1/12/13
http://www.post-gazette.com/...
We had the opportunity of being home together as we heard Attorney General Kathleen Kane announce that the private management contract the governor signed in an attempt to privatize our lottery system is not legal. It offered some security to know that someone in Harrisburg is saving our lottery system.
We are both in our 60s and have been following closely Gov. Tom Corbett's plan to outsource the management of our lottery system to a foreign company. As individual voters, we have been frustrated with the selling off of the profitable parts of our government.
In reviewing the governor's plan, we are confused by the fact that he actually thinks that the lottery system is broken. We see it as making money and providing needed services to the elderly. - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 3/12/13
McCord has also been praising Kane's actions as well:
“I commend the Attorney General for her independent review and subsequent rejection of the administration’s attempt to expand gambling through the state contracting process. The administration was repeatedly warned, as early as last year, that the proposed contract would permit new forms of gambling not currently authorized by the legislature and not regulated by the Gaming Control Board. Expanding the lottery is a policy decision that should include the General Assembly, not be done through a closed-door contracting process. Beyond the legal issues, this proposal also raised serious questions about how best to serve seniors efficiently with the programs that the lottery pays for.” - Pittsburgh business Times, 2/14/13
The other thing that I think is really hurting Corbett is how him and his sidekick, State Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi (R. PA) are blatantly trying to rig the 2016 Presidential election for the GOP:
“This issue is not a winner for Gov. Corbett as he heads into his re-election,” said Ed Uravic, a Harrisburg University Science and Tech professor who worked as a high-level GOP strategist for 20 years.
“This is the kind of issue geared toward the Republican base, but if it's around next year during the general election, it could hurt the governor as he tries to get the votes of young people, independents and conservative Democrats,” Uravic added. “Right now it looks like he's going to have a challenging race and will need every vote he can get.”
Corbett has been a lightning rod for Democrats. They argue that he has made damaging cuts to vital state functions in order to pass balanced budgets without raising taxes.
And his in-state GOP critics contend that he has failed to advance enough of a conservative agenda despite having an ideologically inclined Republican-controlled General Assembly. - The Patriot News, 3/8/13
The Democratic Governors Association and the Pennsylvania Democratic Party have teamed up to stop Corbett's election rigging plan. You can watch this awesome video from the PA Democratic party here:
And you can sign their petition here:
http://secure.democraticgovernors.org/...
And don't let any of the pundit try to convince you that Corbett is in the same territory that Governors Tom Ridge (R) and Ed Rendell (D) were in the middle of their first terms because he's in much worse shape. Franklin & Marshall Polling have a graph that can back that up:
So this poll is great news! Yes, 2014 is still a while away and Corbett will be fighting for his political career like no other. Especially with voters of is own party. But he's put himself in such a bad position trying to appease both moderate0minded voters and right-wing extremists like Grover Norquist and the Koch Brothers. Plus the way his office slow walked the Penn State scandal and containing Jerry Sandusky makes this particular governor's race a game changer. When the law was changed in 1968 where a governor could run for a second term, Pennsylvania voters have consistently re-elected the incumbent governor. But 2014 is different for several reasons. Corbett's handling of the Penn State scandal became a winning campaign issue for Kane who became both the first female and first Democrat to win the Attorney General's race. She campaigned on bringing in special prosecutors to crack down on Corbett's handling of the Penn State scandal and she has made good on her promise:
Attorney General Kathleen Kane has appointed a former federal prosecutor to take on the review of how her predecessors handled investigating Jerry Sandusky, a promise the state’s top law enforcement officer made on the campaign trail and parlayed into a win at the polls.
Kane announced on Monday the appointment of H. Geoffrey Moulton Jr., who will report directly to her and have the internal review as his only responsibility. In addition to Moulton’s eight years as a federal prosecutor, he has worked as a law professor and he compiled a report about the failed federal raid of the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas, in 1993.
“Mr. Moulton is a highly respected former federal prosecutor who will assist us in providing a comprehensive and independent examination of the facts surrounding the handling of the Sandusky investigation,” Kane said in a news release announcing the hire. - Centre Daily Times, 2/5/13
Now I love Sestak and I really like McCord but I am convinced that Former DCC Campaign Finance Director, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D. PA-13) is the right choice for our nominee to take on Corbett. You can read my analysis here:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Plus she's the first major name candidate who is intending to run against Corbett:
Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.) plans to run against Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in 2014.
"It is my intention," Schwartz told the Philadelphia Daily News when asked if she'll run.
The congresswoman has a deep national fundraising network, built partly by her work with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and is close to both House leadership and national liberal groups.
Polls show Corbett is very vulnerable in the Democratic-leaning state. He has low approval ratings, and a recent partisan poll conducted for the Democratic Governors Association showed Schwartz ahead. - The Hill, 2/25/13
Pennsylvania Democrats have another great shot to make history again in 2014:
If she runs, she can make history: The state has never elected a woman governor nor ousted an incumbent who sought re-election.
It could be more interesting than Lynn Yeakel vs. Arlen Specter in 1992.
Yeakel was a novice without Schwartz's experience or savvy and nearly upset Specter (losing by 2 percentage points). And, in terms of political prowess, Corbett's no Arlen Specter.
Now, as then, a female opponent is problematic for the incumbent.
Specter angered women by grilling Anita Hill, who claimed she was sexually harassed by nominee (now Justice) Clarence Thomas.
Corbett backed mandatory ultrasounds for abortion patients, suggesting if women oppose the requirement, "you just have to close your eyes."
And his state spending cuts and privatization efforts don't help. National Women's Law Center data show that women make up 57 percent of the public-sector work force.
Still, Schwartz supports gun control, gay rights and abortion rights, and ran a Planned Parenthood center in a state with large pockets of social conservatives.
(Attorney General Kathleen Kane cashed in on Penn State stuff, anti-Corbett stuff and women P.O.'ed at stupid GOP stuff about rape and birth control, and was a fresh face without a vast voting record to pick apart.) - Philadelphia Daily News, 2/25/13
You can read more about Schwartz here:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The Democratic Governor's Association and Quinnipac have showed that Corbett's biggest problem is with female voters who disapprove of him higher than any other groups in Pennsylvania:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Women disapprove of Corbett’s performance 45 percent to 31 percent, while men narrowly give him a thumbs-up, 41 percent to 37 percent – a large gender gap.
Corbett, who came into office in 2011 facing a $4.2 billion budget deficit, slashed spending for education and social-safety net programs in his first two budgets, while keeping his pledge not to raise taxes. He also generated controversy and earned scorn from many female voters when he supported a bill requiring that women get ultrasounds before having an abortion. Asked about this at a news conference, Corbett said that women who objected could “close their eyes.” - Philadelphia Inquirer, 1/29/13
Schwartz's long history on women's health and strong support for a woman's right to choose will be a key factor in taking out Corbett, who is nothing but a foot soldier in the GOP's War On Women:
http://www.politico.com/...
Schwartz, a 64-year-old native New Yorker and five-term congresswoman, would represent a patchwork of identity politics: She would become the state’s first female governor and third Jewish governor. She is a prolific fundraiser and a veteran of the state’s political scene.
But she would symbolize something more: as a former women’s health center administrator, she is already the target of attacks in the conservative blogosphere for “running an abortion clinic.” At the same time, Corbett — one of the Republicans’ weakest incumbents in public polls — has been under sustained fire from the left over a remark supporting the idea of forcing women to have an ultrasound before an abortion.
The race would not only measure the lingering effect of what Democrats dubbed the “war on women” during Obama’s reelection effort, but it would be among the most ideologically polarized the state has seen in years. Republicans accused the Obama campaign of repeatedly invoking social issues as a wedge for women’s support, yet could never find a way to sell either the policies or their messaging.
“There’s enough intersection of history here and uniqueness to make this a very interesting governor’s race,” said Alan Novak, a former Pennsylvania GOP chairman during Tom Ridge’s era as governor. - Politico, 3/11/13
Right now, Schwartz is aiming to make this race about the economy and has been hitting Corbett hard over his refusal to expand Medicaid as part of the requirement of the Affordable Health Care Act:
“Governor Christie said today, and I’m going to quote him, that expanding Medicaid is, quote, ‘the smart thing to do for our fiscal and public health,’” she said. “We’re calling on Governor Corbett to do the smart thing.”
The Montgomery County Congresswoman, who is actively pursuing a bid for Governor in 2014, took a soft tone toward her prospective rival.
“Hopefully he’ll see the way forward to making this work,” she said, noting that Christie’s decision gives Corbett political cover. Other Republicans governors have also recently bought into the program.
“We want to keep up the drum beat and hopefully he’ll change his mind.” - Politics PA, 2/27/13
Schwartz also has the fundraising edge and a great campaign finance director that could help her get the young female vote in Pennsylvanian out to the polls in large numbers and help pick up more seats in the state house:
One advantage that Schwartz has is that she doesn’t need to get started explicitly raising money for a gubernatorial bid yet. Her congressional campaign treasury—$3 million and counting—can be transferred under Pennsylvania law to a future governor’s race. That law also means that Schwartz can continue to stock her congressional account with new money, even if she plans to use it later for a statewide run. - National Journal, 2/20/13
She also hired Aubrey Montgomery, the fundraising juggernaut (who read my diary on Schwartz and was flattered to be called a juggernaut) from the Pennsylvania Democrats to work on her campaign:
With more than a decade of experience in both candidate and political non-profit fundraising, Aubrey is an expert at executing political finance plans, coaching candidates, state and federal fundraising compliance, and managing finance staff. She has a wealth of knowledge about targeting and soliciting potential donors, methods and means for maximizing contributions, as well as how to avoid common mistakes and misconceptions about fundraising.
Aubrey has worked on dozens of local, state, and federal races throughout the country as well as several political issue campaigns. She served previously as Executive Director of NARAL Pro-Choice Pennsylvania, led the campaigns of State Senator Daylin Leach, Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams and Bryan Lentz’s top-targeted campaign for Congress. Aubrey, a Philadelphia native, is currently the finance director for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and serves on the national faculty for the Center for Progressive Leadership, The Pennsylvania Center for Women and Politics and the New Leaders Council. - Democracy For America Training Team
So yeah, you can see why I'm heavily behind a Schwartz candidacy. I think Sestak should make another run for his congressional seat, despite the gerrymandered congressional map, because I think he might the strongest candidate to take out Congressman Pat Meehan (R. PA-7). I also think McCord should finish his second term as Treasurer and build up his name recognition more. His record and his ability to fundraise could make him the strongest candidate to go up against Tea Party Senator Pat Toomey (R. PA) in 2016. Democrats have an amazing opportunity to unseat Corbett but I have to agree with Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman, Jim Burn and Senator Bob Casey (D. PA) that a crowded and expensive primary could hurt our chances of winning this seat in 2014:
“We have a real shot,” said state chairman Jim Burn, a Pittsburgh lawyer. “This is the most unpopular governor in the United States.”
The chairman added that state party leaders agree it would be wise to unite behind a single candidate in the 2014 gubernatorial primary, to avoid an expensive brawl and conserve resources for the fight against Corbett in a state that historically does not turn out incumbent chief executives.
“There are a lot of conversations taking place,” Burn said. “We have a responsibility to vet this before the primary. Ideally we don’t want a contested primary.” - Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/6/12
Casey said there are a number of Democrats who are eyeing the seat in 2014, but he was unwilling to say who he’d support at this time.
“I hope we can avoid an expensive primary,” he said. - Delco Times, 2/19/13
I can understand why right now Schwartz is focusing on the economy because we need to wait and see what Kane's office discovers from the probe. But as we learned from 2012, Corbett's office not detaining child molester, Jerry Sandusky, is a winning issue for someone like Schwartz. It's what helped Kane become the first female Democratic Attorney General of Pennsylvania:
In 2012, Kane became the first woman in state history to be elected attorney general, as well as the first Democrat. A graduate of the University of Scranton and Temple University Law School, Kane was a prosecutor in Lackawanna County, Pa., chairing the county's first insurance fraud task force and working on cases involving white-collar criminals, senior citizens and child abuse. Her experience in child abuse prosecutions lent credibility to her campaign for attorney general, which she began as an underdog against former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy in the Democratic primary. As a candidate, Kane criticized former AG and GOP Gov. Tom Corbett for his handling of the three-year investigation into Penn State football coach Jerry Sandusky. Corbett has been criticized for the slow pace of the investigation into Sandusky, who would later be convicted of repeated child sexual assaults. In the general election, Kane ended up with 56 percent of the vote, outpolling Obama, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and every other statewide elected official. Her focus on Sandusky and Corbett could prove to be pivotal in the 2014 gubernatorial election. - Governing Magazine, 1/25/13
She can also use the GOP's War On Women as a way to get the female vote out and make her the first female governor. She's socially liberal and fiscally moderate with a great record on environmental issues and a great rating from the AFL-CIO. Which is good because Corbett admitted he would love to be the next Governor Rick "Right To Work" Snyder (R. MI):
A little more than a month after Michigan Republicans successfully passed landmark anti-union legislation in their state, members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly are attempting to follow in their footsteps. Six Republican state representatives are each bringing their own “right-to-work” style bill to the State House floor, as part of an effort collectively known as the Open Workforce Initiative.
One of the legislators involved, Rep. Darryl Metcalfe, has reportedly introduced right-to-work bills during every legislative session of the past 14 years. ”The framers of our Constitution did not intend for our government to become an enforcer for unions,” he explains on his website. “Working men and women should have the freedom to join a union if they choose and to leave that union when it is in their best interest to do so.”
Metcalfe’s success record so far might reassure union allies that Pennsylvania is unlikely to turn into another Michigan. In fact, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett, a Republican, said as much during the Michigan right-to-work battle, telling reporters, “There is not much of a movement to do it.”
However, Corbett has also said he would sign right-to-work legislation if it came across his desk. Furthermore, though the right-to-work bill which Metcalfe proposed in 2011 predictably failed, his persistence was rewarded with a House Labor and Industry Committee hearing in July of that year.
While it seems unlikely that Pennsylvania could go entirely right-to-work any time soon, it’s worth noting that same thing was true of Michigan only a couple of months ago. And while Pennsylvania’s union density is above the national average, it is slightly weaker than in Michigan. Meanwhile, some of the same forces which helped pave the way for right-to-work in Lansing are now mobilizing in Philadelphia: The Pennsylvania chapter of the Koch outfit Americans for Prosperity announced on its Facebook page that it “stands in solidarity with our coalition partners to move Right to Work in PA.” - MSNBC, 1/22/13
I for one not only want to unseat the most corrupt Governor in Pennsylvania history but also make history again with our first female Governor. My only advice for Schwartz is this; don't agree to any cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid. I know she is part of the New Democrat Coalition but she needs to think about Pennsylvania Seniors. She's running in a midterm election, which Senior Citizen voters always vote in. If she agrees to these cuts, Corbett and the GOP will make her own them and the Senior Citizen vote might be the only thing that could save Corbett. So please be sure to remind Schwartz you are against cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid:
202-225-6111
And if you are one of Schwartz's constituents, you can call her at her local offices:
Abington: 215-517-6572
Philadelphia: 215-335-3355