You might want to read the March 17 “Tech Talk” post over at theoildrum.com if you imagine that there is going to be any reduction in human CO2 emissions over the next 20+ years. That post addresses the current power shortage in India, using Bangalore as a specific example:
The city consumes some 2,300 MW a day which it draws from the state grid. About 1,000 MW is generated in the state from nuclear power stations, with the majority of the rest coming from coal, gas and diesel power plants. Because of the prestige of the community it is likely that the city won’t see the worst of the anticipated power shortages this summer, which already have the state trying to buy an additional 1,500 MW. Current supply shortage is around 180 MW but is expected to grow as the weather warms into summer. And since overall Indian supply is challenged by a greater demand, the state can only hope to acquire 1,000 MW to meet the expected demand. They hope that this will be enough to keep the lights and power on . . .And Bangalore is doing better (much better) than most of India.
Their “solution”? Well, burn more coal, of course, with domestic production rising, and imports rising dramatically.
By 2017 imports are anticipated to rise to some 266 million tons of coal, in total. And while much of the press has focused on the Chinese development of new coal-fired power plants, India is planning some 455 new plants, while China has only 363 on the books. This comprises the majority of the 1200 plants currently being planned around the world.450ppm in 20 years? Bet on it . . .