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There’s a great article over at extoling the virtues of the growing North American oil and gas boom, and the resulting benefits of North American energy independence.  It is full from beginning to end with the arguments you’re going to hear over the next few years regarding the benefits to American business, American consumers and America in general as production ramps up.  So it’s “drill baby drill”, “energy independence” and “jobs, jobs, jobs”, from Republicans and Democrats alike, and a solid base of popular support for “cheap gas” and “cheap energy”.  It’s the “future of America” . . .

This will not, of course, pose any problem for our current “foreign” suppliers . . . their output will simply divert to the emerging “new consumer” nations . . . China and India in particular . . . while others like Brazil (in the midst of its own offshore boom) and Indonesia will ramp up their own new production capability.  It’s “happy days” in the oil and gas industry, and “sky’s the limit” for future production worldwide.  Unfortunately “sky” is where all the CO2 produced when all that new gas and oil is burned is going to go.  Into the sky, and the (warming) oceans.  Out of sight, out of mind.  That’s worked so far, hasn’t it?

While “consumer demand” is certainly the “driving force” (think of all those billions of people out there still wanting their first car) behind all this it is not the only force that will maintain it.  All this new drilling and infrastructure is expensive, and that expense is financed, and like those new coal fired power plants being built in China and India (see my diary yesterday) anything financed will be kept in operation at least until the bills are paid.  And that's decades, with a capital “s”. Oh, and can I have another pipeline, please?

Which leads, of course, to the inevitable:

450ppm in 20 years?  Bet on it . . .

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Comment Preferences

  •  Bet on it? (4+ / 0-)

    With CO2 at 450 ppm, the real wager would be whether anyone would be around to collect.

  •  Unless the cost of fuel is artificially (7+ / 0-)

    ...increased to force the markets in a different direction, the world will suck and burn every last hydrocarbon. Or, unless there is a global treaty to force regulation of emissions.

    I'm thinking a lot of the billions of worlds in this universe reach this place and -- depending on the quality of the sentient species -- leap past it or die in their own wastes.

    Meanwhile, here's how Europe is producing jobs:

    Report: Tough EU fuel economy rules could create 443,000 jobs

    Robust fuel efficiency standards for cars could create up to 443,000 new jobs by 2030 and add €16 billion per year to Europe’s GDP, according to the first economic study of the effects of CO2 legislation on the auto-industry.

    Implementing the EU’s proposed 2020 auto-standard of 95 grams of CO2 per km (g/km) for automobiles and 147 g/km for vans - as a stand-alone measure - could result in 356,000 new jobs, says the report by Cambridge Econometrics and Ricardo-AEA.

    But if the realised target were 90 g/km for cars and 141 g/km for vans with annual 3% (and not 1%) efficiency gains in the following years, the jobs harvest could top 443,000.

    “Over-achieving on targets is a plausible scenario, because several automakers have already met their 2015 goals ahead of time,” the report says.

    Around one-third of the forecast new jobs would be created in the auto-industry value chain, due to the labour intensity of the low-carbon car manufacturing process. The other two-thirds would result from a shift in spending away from fossil fuels to other areas.

    Denial is a drug.

    by Pluto on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 10:43:23 PM PDT

    •  It's an interesting exercise . . . (5+ / 0-)

      and it might offset the increasing consumption in, say, Poland or Ukraine.  That's how their marvelous "green" revolution is working . . . shut down their nukes and then buy coal generated electricity from the Poles.

      A lot of those jobs to be created will be manufacturing cars to sell to people who don't have one now, and which will (efficiently) burn gas not now being burned when they drive it.  The chance of a net reduction of attributable-to-Germany CO2 by 2030 is slim (and that's 85% of the way to 20 years from now).  But at least they recognize that there is a problem, and are at least contemplating doing something to address it.  That's only one step in a long journey, but it's one more than the US has yet taken . . .

      Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

      by Deward Hastings on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 11:48:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "the world will suck" (0+ / 0-)

      Pretty much could go with that and call it good.


      Mindfulness is the first necessity of sanity and survival and the first casualty of Consumer Culture.

      by Words In Action on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 10:46:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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