This Poll’s interpretation suggests to me just how far Republicans will go in their interpretations in order to try to garner votes.
DISCLAIMER: This Diary author’s math skills R so poor that when a restaurant meal check arrives he gives it 2 his wife to figure out the check. That said, he also notes that his knowledge concerning the interpretation of published Polls is also close 2 nil.
However, as an Independent Voter residing in Sarasota, Florida I receive Republican Party emails regularly. It is standard procedure for me to glance at the Inbox subject line and routinely hit the Delete button. This morning however was an exception. The Republican generated email subject said: “Poll Finds America IS CONSERVATIVE.”
My immediate reflection on that was,’What kind of a “whack job poll” is this?’ However, for a Social Liberal I do hold Conservative tending Financial leanings so I brought this email contents up 2 view. What follows is a copied excerpt from that Republican email 2 me: “ Republicans and Conservatives,
A recent poll by The Hill has given us some extraordinarily
revealing insights into the electorate that Republicans keep losing
nationally.
There is a strong conservative majority in America. They just don?t
know it, because of labeling and branding problems.
On four questions, voters were asked which solution they preferred
to handle a known problem, without party affiliation identifying
the solution. On the question dealing with the budget and deficit,
they overwhelming went conservative ? choosing the equivalent of
Rep. Paul Ryan?s budget over Sen. Patty Murray?s budget nearly 2-1.
Even regarding Obamacare, they were clearly conservative ? an 8
percentage point difference favoring full repeal over full enactment.
I know you are thinking that this must be a Republican tilted poll.
But here is the real kicker and revelation. When the pollsters
asked respondents which party they trusted more on budgetary issues
? the issues just covered in the poll?s preceding question ?
respondents flipped: Democrats won 35% to 30% over Republicans with
34% saying they trust neither party. The poll itself even has a
five percentage-point sampling advantage for registered Democrats.
It?s a good poll. And that means that there are a lot of
conservative-minded voters out there who are automatically pulling
the lever for Democrats. Sure, the disconnect is media-induced to a
degree. That is a big hurdle to get over. But it is also just the
facts.
My observation that the line that says ,” It?s a good poll.” which includes a question mark could possibly indicate that the email writers ambivalence over just how good the poll really is and which mirrors my thoughts on the matter.
I immediately googled “The Hill Poll” 2 try to find out what “The Hill” represented and if possible its standing as a polling entity. I learned at, http://www.bing.com/search?FORM=IPGTDF&PC=IPGTDF&q=+The+Hill+newspaper> that, “The Hill is a congressional newspaper that publishes daily when Congress is in session, with a special focus on business and lobbying, political campaigns and …
When I pushed the Poll button I found out that “The Hill Poll” was an article written for “The Hill” by one Lara Seligman on 03/18/13 at 05:00 AM ET titled: “Hill Poll: Voters prefer Republican budget ideas, but dislike GOP” and I noted that early in Ms. Seligman’s article she wrote, “More voters trust the Democratic Party than the Republican Party on budgetary issues, according to the results of a new poll for The Hill — even though a strong majority actually prefer Republican fiscal policies.” What caught my interest was the phrase, “a new poll for “ The Hill”. It raised my question as to who, or what organization actually did the polling for “The Hill”. That information was finally supplied at the very end of Ms.Seligman’s article namely that The findings came from a nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted on March 14 by Pulse Opinion Research. So,as you, my reader, can expect by now “Pulse Opinion Search” went into a Search mode by me. By now I was even more determined 2 get 2 to the bottom of any details that might lie behind this poll that might in turn indicate any shenanagins in the poll research methodology. The shenanagins thought occurred when in my reading on the poll I noted that it involved 1000 voters but voters who were not listed as Party Registered Voters. In my past readings by Kos Polling Pundits, in Daily Kos before the last Presidential election, I had been given the impression that polling of Likely Voters was not as highly a valued voting sample as when dealing with Registered Voters. I quickly found out at http://www.pulseopinionresearch.com/home> that “Pulse” did polls regarding “Politics, about Business, and about everyday life”. Also at my search heated up for me by listing the name of what had become a smoking gun for me because of evaluation,in the past, by Daily Kos Polling Pundits who showed that Rasmussen Poll results were so often “outliers” 2 most other polling findings AND here, at the last listed URL above it said, “Pulse Opinion Research licenses methodology developed by veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen, providing a survey platform for a host of clients, from individuals to special-interest groups. In fact, we provide the field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys. A URL on the Pulse Opinion Research list brought up that,” today, ‘UGG’( my insert), FOX NEWS released five new polls measuring voter preferences in the Senate races in Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio and California. The Fox News story says the polls are conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.”
Finally, I noted a URL on the search list that led me to a Daily Kos posting, “Don't Be Fooled By The New FOX Polls-Rasmussen's New Polling "Venture" For FOX News, by StuHunter on Sep 14, 2010 at 11:04 AM PDT which clinched what I was hoping for in my searching.
Stu Hunter pointed out that,” The FOX Nutwork's new polls released today....they're actually Rightwinger Scott Rasmussen's new venture which allows anybody to conduct a poll and pose the questions whichever way they want for a mere $600.00. This new venture is just another way for Rasmussen to set the tone and make the narrative for the races ( or Polls) more beneficial for their Republican candidates.
In conclusion, while Sarasota, Florida Republicans may be swooning to learn from today’s Republican email to them that Democrats do not know that they actually favor Republican ideas and are simply pulling the wrong lever when in the voting booth, this Independent Voter will certainly not be pulling a Republican lever in 2014 or 16 based on the crap polling that they tried to woo me with today.