Shit, this would've been sweet and easy pick up opportunity:
http://www.usatoday.com/...
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, one of the few remaining Republican moderates, said Wednesday she intends to run for a fourth term next year.
"If I developed a serious illness, if my husband did, if something like that — something catastrophic happened to me or another member of my family — then obviously I would reconsider," Collins told the Associated Press. "But absent that, I certainly intend to run again."
Collins' decision would appear to give Republicans some breathing room in the 2014 elections. The GOP needs a net gain of six seats to win the Senate majority. - USA Today, 3/20/13
I was hoping she would follow her old colleague, former Senator Olympia Snowe (R. ME) and call it quits but it's looking like that may not happen. PPP's poll back in late January showed Collins' safe fore re-election against big name Democrats like Congressmen Mike Michaud (D. ME-2) and Chellie Pingree (D. ME-1). But they also show that Collins isn't safe from a Tea Party challenger:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
As Dick Lugar and Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle have learned in recent years though, being a moderate Republican can give you trouble in a Senate primary. Collins' 66/24 approval spread with GOP voters is well below Murkowski's 77/13 standing at the beginning of 2010- she was defeated in the primary 8 months later. And against a hypothetical 'more conservative' GOP opponent in a primary, Collins leads only 49-46. Voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' would like to replace her by a 75/22 margin. If the Tea Party is looking for a primary target in 2014, Collins probably belongs at the top of the list alongside Georgia's Saxby Chambliss.
The GOP would be shooting itself in the foot if it did depose Collins though. We looked at how 2012 nominee Charlie Summers would do as an alternative to her and he would get crushed- he trails Michaud 57/32 and Pingree 50/39 in hypothetical match ups. The GOP's chances of holding onto one of Maine's Senate seats may die as soon as Collins exits the Senate. - PPP, 1/24/13
But can Collins overcome a Tea Party challenger? Maybe:
http://mobile.nationaljournal.com/...
“Candidly most of the chatter amongst Democrats in Maine hasn't been focused on Susan Collins. It's been focused on the gubernatorial race, because Democrats see Paul LePage as priority No. 1. Paul LePage is sort of the antithesis to the Republican politics that play well here in Maine,” Cuzzi said.
That dynamic also limits the pool of any potential conservative Republican challengers. Tea-party activists point to a very disorganized group of conservative activists in Maine.
“You need someone with the resources. We just don't have anybody like that; there's nobody for that element to rally around. That person's a myth,” Demeritt said. - National Journal, 3/14/13
So if the Tea Party can find a candidate with the resources to run against Collins then they might have a shot and this could become a pick up opportunity for us. But who would that Tea Party challenger with the resources be? One name comes to mind:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/...
Enter Bruce Poliquin, a former state treasurer who has previously lost Senate and gubernatorial primaries despite the backing of Freedom Works, the Koch Brothers–funded super PAC. No serious Democrat has stepped forward, mainly because Collins is so formidable in a general election. A Poliquin win in the primary on the other hand could flip this seat Democratic. - The Daily beast, 3/17/13
Poliquin served as Maine's Treasurer from 2011 to 2013. Poliquin also has a long career in the financial industry from 1976 to 1996 at firms like Harris Trust and Savings Bank in Chicago, Evaluation Associates, Inc. in Westport, Connecticut and Principal of Avatar Investors Associates Corporation in New York. Not to mention he had the backing of the Koch Brothers and Freedom Works so they might be will to spend big on Poliquin to unseat Collins. Last month, he gave an indication that he might run again:
http://www.kjonline.com/...
Former Maine state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin may have inadvertently helped fuel speculation last week about whether he will challenge Sen. Susan Collins in the 2014 Republican primary.
After several weeks of relative quiet, Poliquin has jumped back into the public debate over spending and debt through email blasts and newspaper columns, including a new blog with the Portland Press Herald. But it was a bio in his email blasts that caught the eye of some close observers.
The bio described the Georgetown businessman as "the former Maine State Treasurer and a Republican primary candidate for the United States Senate." The bio was soon changed, however, and the subsequent email clarified that he was a "2012 Republican primary candidate" for Senate.
Poliquin, who also ran for governor in 2010, is from the more conservative side of the Maine Republican Party. And there have been many rumblings about whether Poliquin or another conservative will step up to challenge the more moderate Collins in next year's primary. - Kennebec Journal, 2/23/13
Who knows what could happen at this point. Maybe someone like Poliquin will step up to the challenge or he may sit it out. For now, Collins is safe but 2014 is a while away.