PPP came out with their poll on the 2013 Special Election to succeed Senator Tim Scott's (R. SC) old seat in South Carolina's first district and the numbers have me very excited:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's first look at the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.
This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama's approval rating in it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Bostic (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.
Sanford remains a strong favorite for the Republican nomination heading into next week's runoff. He leads Bostic 53/40. The horse race numbers closely mirror his favorability with GOP voters- 55% see him positively to 40% with a negative opinion. If there's a silver lining for Bostic it's that he still has a name recognition deficit- 77% of voters have heard of him to 95% for Sanford- and among voters who are familiar with him he trails Sanford only 49/46. That suggests some possibility of closing as voters focus in on the choice between the two in the final weeks, but Bostic may just not have enough time.
Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it's surprisingly close for one simple reason- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light. - PPP, 3/26/13
PPP notes that the Republican voters who greatly dislike Sanford are more likely to vote for Colbert-Busch than just stay home. This is a district Mitt Romney easily won in the 2012 election, 77/12. Sanford would need to get 85% of the Republican vote in order to help him secure victory. If the Colbert-Busch wins the special election, that could mean serious trouble for incumbent Governor Nikki Haley (R. SC) in her chances for re-election. She's unpopular in Charleston, 41/45. Senator Lindsey Graham (R. SC) is also unpopular there, 40/44. Sanford's wife, Jenny, is the most popular political figure in the First District, 55/18. Scott comes in second, 53/26. Guess who's slightly more popular than the disgraced former Governor? This guy:
Colbert-Busch's brother, Stephen Colbert's approvals are at 36% whereas Sanford's are at 34%. I am very excited about this race because we have an excellent candidate in Colbert-Busch who excites the base whereas the GOP is very close to making fools of themselves and nominate a disgraced Governor. It's pretty pathetic and nuts that he's the favorite to win his primary. Also the fact that Colbert-Busch ties with Bostic shows that we have a real chance.
I can't emphasize how important this race is. There's nothing sweeter than seeing Democrats, especially great ones like Colbert-Busch, beat Republicans on their home turf. Having Colbert-Busch in Congress gives us another seat and could indicate Nikki Haley's chances of being re-elected in 2014. Especially is her 2010 rival, Sate Senator Vincent Sheheen (D. SC) decides to go for a rematch and there's a good chance he will. Just look at PPP's poll back in December:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Republican Nikki Haley is losing to former Gubernatorial challenger Vincent Sheheen in PPP’s latest poll of South Carolina. Sheheen tops Haley 46-44 with 10% undecided. Sheheen leads despite being somewhat unknown – 55% of voters have neither a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him (24% fav/21% unfav).
Haley has middling job approval ratings for an incumbent - just 42% of voters say they approve of her job performance compared to 49% who disapprove. Democrats (15/78) and Republicans (70/22) break out mostly along Party lines but the Governor suffers from the most from lack of approval among independent voters (28/57). Looking at potential matchups if Haley were to lose a primary or not to run, Sheheen leads Republican Treasurer Curtis Loftis 46-37 and leads Lieutenant Governor Glenn McConnell 44-41.
“Nikki Haley won by an underwhelming margin in 2010 given the strong year for Republicans nationally,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Since then she’s proven to be an unpopular Governor, and the political climate has gotten better for Democrats. Put those things together and she’s looking very vulnerable for 2014.” - PPP, 12/11/12
Not to mention, I'm looking forward to who the Club For Growth can come up with to challenge Graham in his primary:
http://thehill.com/...
Two South Carolina conservatives are preparing for possible primary challenges against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), accusing him of being insufficiently conservative for the state.
Nancy Mace, the first female graduate of The Citadel and a conservative blogger, told The Hill on Monday that she’s taking steps toward a possible run against the two-term senator.
Bruce Carroll, a co-founder of the gay conservative group GOProud, is also examining the viability of a primary campaign. - The Hill, 3/11/13
Yes, you read that correctly. One of Graham's potential challengers might be a gay Republican who actually defended DOMA:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/...
As for what that means for the Defense of Marriage Act's federal definition of 'marriage,' which is being challenged in a case to be heard by the Supreme Court later this month, Carroll said, "I still fundamentally believe the word 'marriage' is a religious term used by a church of a covenant between a man, a woman and God, so I actually support DOMA as it is on the books because I think it helps move the topic now more cohesively to the states and allow the states to do flexibility."
Asked if that meant he supports a married same-sex couple in New Hampshire being treated differently than a married opposite-sex couple, he paused and said: "As you can tell, I'm struggling with this. I have my beliefs, I have my principles on the issue. I don't agree with the gay community on marriage. It's a tough call, but I would say right now that there are just so many layers of this that I think DOMA is practical in the type of environment we're in. In five years from now, I might have a different perspective. But, as we're here today, I think it's practical to keep DOMA in place while other things are playing out in the states." - BuzzFeed, 3/14/13
Carroll will be making his decision to challenge Graham middle of next month.
South Carolina is a political hot spot this year and next year. To see Republicans idiotically devour themselves and handing over both a congressional seat and Governor's seat would be a great treat for Democrats. Plus like I said a while back, we may never see a Colbert in the White House but we can send one to Congress:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The Special Election is May 7th. If you're a South Carolina resident or want to see this seat go blue, please donate or get involved with the Colbert-Busch campaign here:
http://colbertbuschforcongress.com/