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9:23 AM PT: MA-05: Here's a good get for state Rep. Carl Sciortino in what will almost assuredly be a packed Democratic primary to replace Rep. Ed Markey (assuming he ascends to the Senate later this year). The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund just endorsed Sciorinto, who is openly gay.

9:30 AM PT: Mayors: Daily Kos Elections community member Darth Jeff has done us all a great service by compiling an extensive guide to the most important mayoral elections taking place in 2013, with rundowns on the 21 cities with populations greater than 300,000 that are holding races this year. Jeff includes summaries of every interesting contest and provides a handy chart with election dates and procedures for every 'burg on the list. With the Virginia governor's race likely to be the only notable statewide affair in this odd-numbered year, these mayoral battles are where we'll see the most electoral action ahead of the 2014 midterms.

10:03 AM PT: SC-01: Hrm. Is Curtis Bostic surging at the last possible moment? He and Mark Sanford, his Republican runoff opponent, met on Thursday night for their only debate, and surprisingly, Sanford went on the attack. (So did Bostic, over Sanford's infamous misdeeds while governor, but you expect the underdog to do that.) Sanford went after Bostic for voting in favor of spending increases while serving on the Charleston County Council, and also criticized his attendance record.

The fact that Stanford wasn't content to play nice just days before Tuesday's election is noteworthy in and of itself, but here's an added twist: Sanford may have seriously stepped in it. Bostic says his absences from the council "were related to his wife's battle with cancer." Ouch. (Reminds me of the time Susan Collins made a similar screwup when Tom Allen missed votes to attend a family funeral.) Bostic's campaign doesn't seem to be harping on this unforced error (though one of his sons sounded off on Twitter), so perhaps it won't be the fumble it looks like it ought to be for Sanford. Bostic has repeatedly pledged to run a positive campaign, but if I were him, I'd be hitting this one hard.

10:33 AM PT: AK-AL: Oh man. GOP Rep. Don Young, in a radio interview on Thursday:

"My father had a ranch; we used to have 50-60 wetbacks to pick tomatoes," he said. "It takes two people to pick the same tomatoes now. It's all done by machine."
Oy vey. Young hastily issued a statement that various press outlets are for some reason characterizing as an "apology," even though he didn't use the word "sorry" and actually said "I know that this term is not used in the same way nowadays." If he knows that, then why did he use it? Logic fail.

What's most notable to me, though, is that Republican bigwigs are piling on to Young, including John Boehner, John Cornyn, and Reince Priebus. I suspect there's something more at work than mere damage control from a party that knows how badly it's alienating Hispanics. Young is a cantankerous pain in the ass for the likes of Boehner, sometimes breaking party lines (and perhaps ethical rules) to pursue his Alaska First agenda. With a brand-new ethics inquiry launched just last week, I think House leadership would be plenty happy if the 79-year-old Don Young weren't around to bother them anymore.

11:26 AM PT: ND-AL: Hoo boy. Here's one Republican doing his best to insult Native people and women all at once:

Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., told a gathering of victim-assistance professionals from the state's American Indian reservations in Bismarck on Tuesday that he would not feel "safe" on reservations because of new provisions in the Violence Against Women Act, according to one official who was present.
Republicans have had a very hard time accommodating themselves to the renewal of the Violence Against Women Act, with most bitterly opposed because it dared to expand protections for transsexual women and Native women living on reservations. Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, for instance, called the bill "horrible" because "they have men dressed up as women." Cramer, meanwhile, waltzed into the other briar patch.

Here's the background: Native women who were victims of domestic violence at the hands of non-Native men on tribal lands often had no recourse: Tribal authorities couldn't prosecute the offenders, and local police had no jurisdiction on reservation turf, as this painful story illustrates. So the new version VAWA sought to remedy that, by bringing all alleged perpetrators of violence against Native women on reservations under the authority of tribal courts.

Cramer actually voted for the full version of VAWA (unlike a majority of his colleagues), so his alleged comments are particularly strange. For what it's worth, Cramer claims that the official's report "is not an accurate account" of what he said, "but I don't want to diminish how she feels about it." Hrm, especially since Cramer says he wants to apologize in person, "for the misunderstanding and the tone of his remarks," in the Grand Forks Herald's words.

11:41 AM PT: IA-04: Democrat Christie Vilsack already said no to a Senate bid, with a spokesperson explaining that she was "looking into another exciting opportunity." And that opportunity has turned out to be a senior post with the United States Agency for International Development (aka "USAID"), in Washington, DC. So that also pretty much rules out a second run for Iowa's 4th Congressional District, where she lost to GOP Rep. Steve King last year.

12:16 PM PT: CO-03: There's one new potential 2014 name in Abby Livingston's "Farm Team" update for Colorado: state Sen. Angela Giron, who could run for Democrats against Rep. Scott Tipton. That makes her the third possible candidate here, in addition to those we took note of just the other day, state Sen. Gail Schwartz and Lt. Gov. Joe Garcia.

12:29 PM PT: MA-Sen: It's a bad question to even get asked: Rep. Stephen Lynch, the hindrunner in the special Democratic primary for Senate, says he won't run for Boston mayor, now that the current occupant of that post, Tom Menino, is retiring. Such a move might have offered Lynch an exit strategy from a race he seems on track to lose—or to put things another way, no one is putting this question to his opponent, Ed Markey.

12:42 PM PT (David Jarman): Census: Say goodbye to paper Census forms? In an effort to save money in 2020, and just generally get with the times, the Census is planning to do a mostly-Internet Census next time. The 2010 Census cost $96 per household, but they've been having success with letting American Community Survey opt in to responding via Internet, and they'd like to extend that to the next full count. Much of the expense in the Census comes with in-person follow-ups with non-respondents, though, which is a problem that technology by itself can't solve.

12:51 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: You've probably seen polls before that address the issue of which states have the highest and lowest levels of religious adherence... but how about one that zooms in on metropolitan areas? Gallup is out with a new offering that measures just that, though it doesn't go any further than asking whether people identify as "very religious." It's little surprise which metro area is tops for religiosity: Provo-Orem, Utah, location of Brigham Young Univ. Of the rest of the top 10, all but one are either in Utah or in Deep South states; the lone holdout is Holland-Grand Haven, Michigan, that dark-red, mostly Dutch-American corner of SW Michigan that's dominated by the Dutch Reformed Church.

As for the 10 least religious metro areas, they're mostly in the Northeast or on the West Coast, with several other college towns in there as well. The top is a tie between Burlington, Vermont, and Boulder, Colorado. The only surprise on the list is Albany, New York, which has more of a blue-collar vibe than the other places on the list, but maybe there are enough students there too to boost it.

1:22 PM PT: SD-Sen: As conservatives cast about for an alternative to ex-Gov. Mike Rounds in South Dakota's now-open Senate race, here's a new name. One-time Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby, who declined a bid in 2008, isn't ruling out a run this time. Kirby actually lost the gubernatorial primary to Rounds in 2002, coming in a weak third in a three-way field where Rounds started off as the underdog, so this would be a rematch of sorts if he were to go ahead with it.

But perhaps more memorably, Kirby came under renewed fire when he contemplated seeking Tim Johnson's Senate seat five years ago for a truly ugly episode in his past. Kirby, then running a venture capital fund, claimed there were no good investment opportunities in South Dakota, so he poured money into a ghoulish Massachusetts biotech company called Collagenesis. The firm bought up skin from cadavers around the country for the purposes of cosmetic surgical procedures like penis enlargements, making it impossible for hospitals to obtain badly needed tissue for burn victims. The sordid saga even came up in an attack ad in the 2002 primary, and undoubtedly it would again, if Kirby were to run.

1:41 PM PT: NC-07: Unsurprisingly, former state Sen. David Rouzer is now saying he'll seek a rematch against Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre, who beat him last year by just 654 votes, making it the closest race in the nation. Rouzer apparently promises a formal announcement this coming week, but he's already behind schedule. When he first started mooting a second bid back in January, he said he'd start campaigning in February if he went ahead with it.

1:47 PM PT: P.S. I guess Young must really be feeling the heat, because he re-apologized, and this time actually used the word "apologize."

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 06:00:11 AM PDT

  •  If Elizabeth Colbert-Busch wins, (8+ / 0-)

    Lets hope she's more of a Bill Owens than a Kathy Hochul, and can hold the seat for more than the balance of the term.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 06:26:09 AM PDT

  •  Expelled NV lawmaker arrested for another incident (10+ / 0-)

    Via Jon Ralston's Twitter, Steven Brooks was arrested the night after he was expelled from the Assembly apparently for "attempting to elude an officer and throwing rocks at a vehicle."

    I hope he can get some help soon: he does not remotely sound well.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 07:06:39 AM PDT

  •  What do you guys think the chances are (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    For a Jenny Sanford endorsement of Colbert-Busch? From what I've heard, she is not fond of Mark Sanford (for obvious reasons) and is fond of Colbert-Busch, since they run in the same circles. If Jenny Sanford endorses Colbert-Busch, in my opinion she would become favored to win.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 07:37:56 AM PDT

  •  Australian Labor Languishing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, GloFish, ehstronghold

    The most recent Australian opinion poll (by Newspoll) puts the opposition Liberal/National Party Coalition on a landslide 58/42 lead over the governing Labor Party. If this result were to be replicated at a general election, Labor would lose half its seats (and possibly more since the largest swings seem to be concentrated in "safe" Labor seats in Sydney and Tasmania). The past two weeks have been an absolute disaster for the government, and have only highlighted the disunity and incompetence within the party (made worse by ongoing criminal corruption investigations against the party in New South Wales).
    Luckily for the Liberals, Queensland's governor Campbell Newman's popularity has rebounded, and today's latest opinion poll in Queensland puts the Liberal National Party on a 62/38 lead over Labor in the state, mimicking the  landslide result achieved by the Liberals in the state election last year. Things are made worse for Labor by the fact that over 1/3rd of card-carrying Labor Party members in Queensland have deserted the party over the past year.
    Election Night 2013 will be fun :)

    Iranian and German by origin. British by birth.

    by germankid101 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 07:57:57 AM PDT

    •  So Australia will go (0+ / 0-)

      From a center-left government to a center-right government in all likelihood.

    •  When are the UK elections? (0+ / 0-)

      cause surely it looks like Labour would win, if elections were held today in Great Britain, Millibrand would be PM. Since UK is in a triple dip recession.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 09:41:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Spring of 2015 unfortunately (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        As I highly doubt the left wing of the Lib Dems pull the plug with a no confidence vote since the party is going to get destroyed (and rightly so) if the past few years of polls are worth anything.

        It's a shame they weren't able to get proportional representation, or at the very least alternative voting passed.

        •  Back a right wing gov't (6+ / 0-)

          In exchange for an alternate vote referendum.  Voters say, "why would we want a voting system that encourages similar corrupt bargains?" and reject your referendum.  Well played, Lib Dems, well played.

          •  Yeah it's no wonder that their support has halved (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, stevenaxelrod

            since 2010. Any left of center (or even centrist) voter who disliked the Tories got played as I'm betting a large proportion of their voters would have preferred Labour to the Tories as their second choice. Nick Clegg really revealed his true colors; and it's not even like they've tempered the euroscepticism on the right by joining the government since Cameron has promised a referendum on EU membership.

            •  I think Clegg would have preferred Labour (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf

              as a coalition partner, but they didn't have the votes and would have had to rely on separatists to get a majority. (1910 called, unfortunately due to changes in telephonic technology they weren't able to get through.)

              •  I think the Lib Dems would have preferred Labour (5+ / 0-)

                But Clegg seems very comfortable with the Tories. He does seem to be reflexively anti-Labour, which is just one of many reasons why him no longer being leader is a precondition for any Lib-Lab deal after the next election.

                •  Labour didn't want him (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  CF of Aus

                  It was not Clegg, but Scottish Labour which torpedoed any such coalition. It would have destroyed their position at Holyrod and set them up for a massacre to sit int he same government with the SNP.

                  As Scottish politics has been polarizing into a two-party independence versus union fight, Scottish Labour has been vacuuming up unionist votes from all sides and this would have hurt them badly.

                  •  Not true (0+ / 0-)

                    Certain Scottish MPs (notably John Reid) were hostile to Labour going into any coalition, but so were English MPs like David Blunkett. From 2003 until 2007 Labour and the Lib Dems were in coalition at Holyrood, so tribalism isn't the answer there.

                    What's more, the unionist vote is opposed to independence. It's not opposed to working with the SNP. Besides, the massacre theory doesn't work. It happened in 2011, but at the SNP's hands. The SNP has a lot more appeal in Labour heartlands like the Central Belt than any non-Labour unionist party has ever had.

                    The reason the coalition didn't happen was that the Lib Dem terms for Labour were too steep and the numbers weren't there.

                •  Many Liberal Democrats are reflexively anti-Labour (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  This natural bedfellows idea is a myth.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 04:27:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Rank and file (0+ / 0-)

              I can tell you that the preference for Labour among Liberal Democrats is not as large as conventional wisdom suggests. A coalition of that kind was not viable for any number of reasons.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 04:23:43 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Tory Governments (0+ / 0-)

        Are always unpopular midterm. Thatcher was doing even worse in the polls when she was Prime Minister in between elections. If the UK economy manages to pick up, then the Conservatives will have a strong advantage to work on. Thankfully, people have not completely forgotten the financial incompetence of the previous Labour government. Miliband is not popular, and is vulnerable should the economy stop contracting.
        Polls suggest that in the highly unlikely event Boris Johnson (my mayor) succeeds Cameron as Tory leader, he would propel the Conservatives into a lead.

        Iranian and German by origin. British by birth.

        by germankid101 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 09:57:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What (0+ / 0-)

          are the chances of UKIP winning a seat or two in parliament? I mean they got super close to beating the Lib Dems in Eastleigh during the by election and are fighting the Lib Dems for a distant third in national polling.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:32:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They do have a good chance (0+ / 0-)

            But it would need to be in a by-election, and preferably a constituency in the South West. The Eastleigh by-election shows that UKIP is able to gain votes not only from disaffected Tories but also from Lib Dems who are sympathetic to the eurosceptic cause. Had Farage himself stood in Eastleigh I assume he would have won (UKIP also won the votes cast on election day itself but postal votes put the Lib Dems over the line). I assume UKIP could do very well in somewhere like Torbay, or in a working class Tory seat such as Romford. Obviously the main aim now for UKIP is to achieve a great performance in the European Parliament elections next year.

            Iranian and German by origin. British by birth.

            by germankid101 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:51:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Torbay has a Eurosceptic MP (0+ / 0-)

              Adrian Sanders is apparently popular locally, so he's probably not their best target.

              Similarly, whilst Romford looks good on paper (and they won a local council seat just down the road from there last week), the current incumbent is essentially a neo-fascist and therefore there isn't really an opening for UKIP to position themselves as the more reactionary choice.

          •  They have major organisational problems (0+ / 0-)

            Which is to why, they don't really have an organisation in most places.

            Farage doesn't want to be an MP, because it'd involve a lot more work than he's willing to put in, but he also doesn't want somebody in UKIP who's more popular than him. He's therefore never been particularly supportive of efforts to build local support bases.

            They might start to rectify that a little if they get some breakthroughs in the county council elections this year, but otherwise they're relying on by-elections in rural Tory seats, which aren't tremendously likely.

        •  Actually, polls don't show that (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, ArkDem14, stevenaxelrod

          They show he'd get a tie, but only because he'd squeeze the UKIP vote better. And that just reflects the fact that a lot of current UKIP support will return to the Tories in 2015, as it becomes clear that it's a choice between Cameron and Miliband.

          In addition, it's reasonably well-established that polls asking about alternative leaders tell you relatively little about how those alternatives would poll in reality, because the public just don't know enough about them.

          I'd add that though Miliband isn't popular, he's more popular than Cameron, so the narrative about his vulnerability may be overstated. Especially since economic growth shows no sign of appearing, and even if it does it's unlikely to be accompanied by real wage growth, so people are not going to feel better off.

          •  Miliband trails Cameron as preferred PM (0+ / 0-)

            Which is usually a warning sign of trouble to come. A bigger one is Labour's apparent willingness to win by default. Sometimes that works(1970, 1974 - barely), but usually it means losing a lot of ground during the campaign. Miliband is untried, Ed Balls is distrusted on the economy, UKIP voters will come home.

            My guess would be

            Labour 37
            Conservatives 35
            Liberal Democrats 14
            UKIP 5


            Labour 330 or so Seats
            Conservatives 260 or so
            Liberal Democrats 23-27

            •  Miliband often leads Cameron on personal ratings (0+ / 0-)

              Preferred PM is a bad metric to use - Callaghan easily beat Thatcher on that, and even Major was considered to be more qualified for the role than Blair in the mid-1990s. Incumbents have a built-in advantage, but there's no evidence it affects voting intention.

              Similarly, recent polling suggests that whilst Balls isn't very popular, if people are told Osborne supports one policy and Balls another, people are more likely to pick the second policy than if they pick without being told who backs what.

        •  Sorry but that has the smell of bullshit (5+ / 0-)

          "Tory Governments are always unpopular midterm."  Although unstated I'm assuming from the context of your comment this implies, "no worries, they'll bounce back by the next election, they always do!"

          That's the kind of fictional "pattern" I've grown used to seeing claimed and easily proven absurd in American political banter.  The sort of thing that sometimes even grows into political urban legend.

          I'm sure any chief executive of any national government ruling for 3-5 years at a time has ups and downs.  That comes with the job.  Every American President in my lifetime, literally every single one from LBJ through Obama, has had job approval tumble sometime during his Presidency.

          Cameron is no more likely to recover than to stay down.  The economy has been down for this long specifically because of Cameron's own bad policy decisions.  Austerity kills.  You don't come back from that very easily or quickly, and you come back weaker than you would otherwise when you do recover.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 08:16:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Better way of phrasing that (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            germankid101, CF of Aus

            Preferred PM polls are far more accurate predictors of general election results than party polls. Party polls tend to measure an abstract feeling which in Britain since 1945 has generally been anger against the government, since every government since then with the exception of Blair's has been involved in making unpopular and difficult choices or facing the consequence of ignoring them.

            The thing is that by the time the next general election rolls around, the opposition actually has to explain how they would deal with nationwide strikes, unsolvable blood feuds in Northern Ireland, and an imploding education system. And they frankly have either no answers, or the same one as the government.

            The consequence is that governments bounce back. Labour was dead in 1949 but won in 1950. The Tories were in third place in 1962-63, but almost won in 1964. Labour was down 20 points in 1969 and barely lost in 1970.

            The only time this really failed to happen was in 1997, and even then its debatable(the Tories spent part of 1994-95 in third place).

            We know two things. One the Tories trail by about ten points, but with UKIP getting 12-15% when they got less than 3% last time. Secondly, David Cameron has led Ed Miliband as preferred Prime Minister in almost every single poll, usually by at least 6 points.

            We also know that when the election comes the big events will be the debates. There will be almost certainly be no UKIP representative in those debates. Those debates will feature Cameron at his strongest(which god knows is not running a government) and Miliband at his weakest.

            Furthermore, as much as this government has been a mess, its unclear if Labour actually disagrees with any of its policies. Labour was initially noncommittal on tuition fees, Labour councils have been aggressively cutting local services, Miliband has been apologizing for New Labour's record on immigration, and various "Blue Labour" figures have been floating restrictions on Eastern European migrants. Labour even now has not come out against austerity except in the most reluctant manner, and mostly left criticisms of the government to extra-parliamentary groups and media figures. Its leading Economic spokesman is the toxic Ed Balls.

            All of the factors that normally lead to an election boost are there for the Tories - a lead in the preferred Prime Minister Polls, a disorganized opposition, a resovoir of protest votes. If it was not for the failure of the boundary review, and the 7-8% Labour bias in the electoral map, I would probably give the Tories a 45% or so chance of winning. Instead its probably 30% or so, but far from written off.

            •  Great post (0+ / 0-)

              Also look at where Labour came back from in 2010. During 2008 and 2009 the Tory lead was often 20 points. And even in 1997 the final Lab-Con share of the vote was nowhere near some of the crazy polling.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 03:42:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  To be honest (0+ / 0-)

        The current Labour lead (about 10 points) is quite weak by historical standards. Certainly for an opposition looking for a majority two years out. Looking at polling trends the current situation looks more like 1990 than 1995 or 2008. But nothing is set in stone obviously.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 04:16:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Surprised (0+ / 0-)

      Campbell Newman's government has come back in the polling, but it's not surprising. It is a government in its first term and voters are more forgiving of the government's faults.

      Peter Beattie's Labor government sailed into rough waters during its first term, but they were able to come back and win the 2001 election in a landslide only rivaled by Newman's own landslide in 2012.

      Of course if this was a government in it's 3rd or 4th term it would be different. Just ask Anna Bligh.

      Looking federally I think at this point the Liberals will sweep all of the seats in Western Australia and Queensland (not even Kevin Rudd would survive now). New South Wales will be a bloodbath for Labor reducing the party to a handful of ultra safe seats in inner city and Western Sydney.

      Even Victoria and South Australia will be ugly for Labor since Labor doesn't have Ted Baillieu in Victoria to kick around anymore and Isobel Redmond in South Australia has wisely fallen on her sword.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:26:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rudd ain't losing sorry. (0+ / 0-)

        The generic polling showing a statewide swing is always used somewhat hysterically. I wouldn't pay too close attention to it.

        Rudd Is no chance of losing to bill glasson... None at all.

        He is extremely popular... I wouldn't be surprised to see him increase his vote share.

        Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

        by CF of Aus on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 02:50:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  OH-Gov: Cordray ally makes donation to FitzGerald (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Englishlefty, jncca

    via the Columbus Dispatch:

    A close friend and government aide to Richard Cordray made a $500 donation to Democrat Ed FitzGerald’s gubernatorial campaign, possibly signaling that Cordray won’t seek the party’s nomination to challenge Gov. John Kasich.
    Seemingly minor, but I always thought Cordray was a long shot to enter the race.
  •  WSJ has a breakdown of the 1996 DOMA votes (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8, GloFish

    and current positions on SSM.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 09:38:59 AM PDT

  •  So next Tuesday is the SC-01 second round? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:06:39 AM PDT

  •  Michigan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Bill Ballenger, who publishes a political newsletter, recently conducted a poll on MI-Sen, as well as the SoS and AG races.  His newsletter is something one has to pay for but he did tweet some of the results.

    Peters leads Rogers by 3%.

    Peters leads Amash by 8% (39% to 31%)

    AG Schuette leads Whitmer by 5%

    SoS Johnson leads Benson by 5%.

  •  AK-AL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Don Young refused to apologize for a racist remark about Latinos!

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:24:46 AM PDT

  •  In case you missed it from last night- KY-06 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, KingofSpades, HoosierD42

    Possible candidate in Joe Palumbo, son of Rep. Ruth Ann Palumbo (D-Lexington). I think this means Rep. Sannie Overly (D-Paris) is not likely to run if Palumbo is seriously looking at this.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:48:52 AM PDT

  •  The other problem with (10+ / 0-)

    Young's "apology" is that, as far as I know, "wetback" DIDN'T mean something different back then.

    •  And on top of that, the Native American comments (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Dude 415, JBraden, askew

      from Rep. Kevin Cramer, listed above.

      Now, who other than grumpy old white men and religious fundamentalists haven't the GOP or someone in it offended this week?

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 12:37:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I actually think (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, jncca, JBraden

        Cramer's comment has disturbing implications.

        After all, if the new VAWA provisions simply give tribal courts more jurisdiction over cases of domestic violence committed by non-Natives toward Natives, then what does he have to not feel safe about?

        Does Cramer have an incident in his past?

      •  Let's ask Lynn Westmoreland what he thinks (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Or how about Pete Hoekstra, then the GOP will have offended every major minority group (Hispanics, gays, Native Americans/women, blacks, and Asians)

        Oh GOP (or maybe that should be @LOLGOP), you just can't help but pander to the racists.

      •  I'm going to go out on a limb (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine, Marcus Graly

        Given that Cramer voted for the full version of VAWA (the Dem backed one), I think there was misunderstanding about what he said. I could be wrong, but I think this might not belong in the same category as the Young comments. If he really felt that way, he would have been unlikely to vote for it. I could be wrong. I'm sure more will come out about this.

        And I'm kind of appalled by the Dude's comments above. Sorry, I don't really care about Cramer, but that's the kind of insinuation you only see on some of the less reputable right wing sites about Dems.

        •  I don't understand (0+ / 0-)

          what's appalling about it.  If he genuinely said what he's alleged to have said, why would he feel unsafe on a reservation after the new VAWA provisions have passed?  What reason would he have to feel unsafe?

          The implications behind that comment are that either A) he thinks that as a white man he'd have to worry about people on the reservation arresting him for domestic abuse that he didn't commit, which is just offensive and racist, or B) he actually has a REASON for it to make him feel unsafe.  I don't see what other possibilities there are, other than racism or having committed DV against a NA woman in the past.  And I don't see what's wrong with pointing this out.

          Again, assuming he actually made that comment, which, yes, he may not have.

  •  Thanks for the shout out on the mayors' races! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, abgin, gabjoh

    We have the first round of the Omaha race Tuesday in addition to SC-01.  Democratic incumbent Jim Suttle is very likely to advance; three GOPers and a former GOP state Senator turned independent are battling for the second slot.  The race has gotten quite ugly in recent days between two of the GOPers.  

    Suttle barely survived a recall in 2011.  He looks like he's in better shape this year but nothing's certain.  I go into a lot more detail in the diary but this primary should give us an additional fun race to watch Tuesday.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 11:48:07 AM PDT

    •  There's also a couple of statewide races in WI (0+ / 0-)

      However, in both of those, the incumbents are strongly favored to win re-election (WI-SC conservative justice Pat Roggensack and WI-Sup liberal state superintendent Tony Evers).

      Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 12:32:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Angela Giron represents Pueblo and NW Pueblo Co. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, James Allen

    just in case anyone's wondering.  

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 12:29:14 PM PDT

  •  Frankly, if I were Lynch, I'd take the out. (0+ / 0-)

    He's not going to be loved by the Democratic establishment in Massachusetts or Massachusetts liberals after this campaign, and he's clearly ambitious. Running for Mayor seems like a face-saving move that benefits everyone. Plus it opens up another seat in Massachusetts, where open seats are pretty rare.

    19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

    by tqycolumbia on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 01:06:35 PM PDT

  •  IA: The Vilsacks are buying a house in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, JBraden

    IA though.


    My guess is that means Vilsack might run for Senate in 2016 if Grassley retires.

  •  Ma-Sen (8+ / 0-)

    "no one is putting this question [running for Boston Mayor] to his opponent, Ed Markey."

    I would hope not, given that he lives in Malden.

    •  Heh (0+ / 0-)

      Fair point. But even if he lived in Boston proper, no one would ask him.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:23:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not so sure (0+ / 0-)

        Polling shows Markey ahead, but this primary will be a low-turnout affair. Lynch can win with a strong ground game, which he always has had in prior campaigns.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 06:27:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  2020 Census (0+ / 0-)

    It's a couple of decades late, but the Census Bureau is finally moving into the 21st Century!

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 01:27:24 PM PDT

    •  What? (0+ / 0-)

      The Census Bureau wouldn't have been able to practically perform a mostly-online census before 2010, and even that is questionable. It makes sense to do so going forward (and of course, doing in-person reports for the poor and those without internet access will also be necessary), but I don't see how they could have practically pulled it off before considering the internet didn't even exist before the 1990s.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 01:50:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SD-Sen, Yes! Let the GOP primary get crowded! (7+ / 0-)

    Even if this guy doesn't beat Rounds (I think Noem is the only one who can), it'll at least get him to spend money!  That way he can come out of the primary low on cash like Tommy Thompson did in the WI GOP primary.

    Funny Stuff at

    by poopdogcomedy on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 01:30:09 PM PDT

  •  SD-Sen, by the way, a group of activists are (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, stevenaxelrod

    already launching the Draft Brendan Johnson for Senate movement:

    Funny Stuff at

    by poopdogcomedy on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 01:31:20 PM PDT

  •  Lynch would make a strong candidate for Bos Mayor (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, gabjoh, stevenaxelrod

    But there would be zero benefit in switching gears now.  It would just make him look pusillanimous, while staying in the race through the primary gives him plenty of free media and attention and enough time to still get signatures for the May 21st filing deadline.

  •  L.A. Mayor: Garcetti leads 47%-40% (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian, stevenaxelrod

    This is the first public poll of the race since the first round.  Most of the poll was taken before Greuel was endorsed by Bill Clinton for what that's worth.

    In the City Attorney's race, Mike Feuer is destroying incumbent Carmen Trutanich 49%-31%.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 01:56:03 PM PDT

    •  Since being endorsed by Clinton, (0+ / 0-)

      Greuel was also endorsed by Magic Johnson, which is a big deal. Magic has  become one of L. A.'s leading business people and has helped revive business districts in poor and struggling L. A. neighborhoods. He's highly respected throughout L. A. His endorsement of Greuel will matter more than Jan Perry's endorsement of Garcetti, and I say that as a Perry admirer. Perry, for those not following the race, came in fourth in the primary. She's an African American but has less visibility and cultural significance than Magic Johnson does.

      Greuel also has obtained the endorsement of former mayor Richard Riordon, which will help her with moderate Republicans. (Kevin James, the only Republican running in the primary, came in third, barely ahead of Perry; both were at about 16%). All in all, despite a staff exodus that looked bad, Greuel seems to me to have the momentum now. I'm betting that the race has been turning in her favor since the susa poll was taken.

      For what it's worth, I think both Garcetti and Greuel are fine candidates, and we can't really lose with either one.

  •  Great that Rouzer's running again (0+ / 0-)

    and not someone with an actual base in the more important part of the district (suburban Wilmington) like state senator Thom Goolsby. Rouzer was a total clown in the race last year and allowed McIntyre to run some pretty great attack ads against him over outsourcing/lobbying.

    •  Well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jncca

      Someone else could get in. I'm not sure Rouzer will clear the field, even with the close 2012 race, because that was a race widely perceived as one the GOP "should have won." I have the same feelings about Mia Love, though she has more "rockstar" status than Rouzer, who is a nobody nationally.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:25:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed and I wouldn't be surprised at all if (0+ / 0-)

        he crashes and burns in the primary. He barely defeated the war criminal Patano after all and really is just from the wrong part of the district all around. Someone from New Hanover or New Brunswick county is going to be much, much better positioned in both the primary and the general if they make a serious run.

        I really wish the DCCC had triaged McIntyre and put that $2 milllion into better races like MI-01 or even CO-03, as Rouzer would have just been a huge embarrassment to the state GOP and would have been unelectable statewide and McIntyre votes with us on basically nothing big because he can't. I am seriously worried if Thom Goolsby ever runs as he'd have statewide potential, especially in suburban Wilmingon and Raleigh that none of the current congressional delegation has.

        •  To be fair, war criminal may have been a positive (0+ / 0-)

          in the primary.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)

          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:45:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  he still almost won. (0+ / 0-)

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:34:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SD-Sen: I had forgotten about that company (3+ / 0-)

    Kirby worked with.  Kirby just isn't that likeable; he's the kind of guy that while you're walking away after having a normal conversation with him you say to yourself "what an asshole".  I actually went to school with his nephew and the whole family was just in-your-face-rude.

    And the "Lieutenant Governor" label is a really misleading profile for him as well; he was only LG for a year and a half (mid 1993-1995), appointed to the position when Governor George Mickelson died in a plane crash and his LG moved up.  

    He'd certainly be fun to run against in the general election, but I think he's fools gold when it comes to hoping he can take out Rounds.

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 02:23:26 PM PDT

    •  We might have a chance of holding SD-Sen... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ...if Kirby is the nominee. We'd need another Tommy Thompson-type scenario in order to defeat Rounds, but we could defeat Noem and Kirby because they are extreme/unlikeable.

      Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 02:30:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Question (0+ / 0-)

      If you know: In the 2002 primary, did Kirby and Barnett split the conservative vote, allowing Rounds to slip through? News articles make it sound like Rounds pulled a Creigh Deeds, but I'm also curious about the ideological angle, too.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:28:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm honestly not sure about (0+ / 0-)

        the ideological angle.  I was in high school then and really didn't think much about ideology.  

        I can anecdotally recall people saying the reason they supported Rounds was just because of the negativity between Barnett and Kirby, and local news suggesting the same, but that's really all I have - and it's certainly believeable.  I vividly remember the attack ads being nearly literally every commercial on tv, to the extent that I was actually turned off from politics because of it (luckily my hs AP Gov't teacher fixed that the following year).

        27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 04:21:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sup/WI-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, DCCyclone

    State Superintendent Tony Evers, who is up for re-election on Tuesday against right-wing extremist challenger Don Pridemore, lashed out at Scott Walker's budget proposal, which includes an expansion of public school vouchers in Wisconsin, at a hearing held by the Wisconsin State Legislature's Joint Finance Committee:

    DPI Superintendent Evers, who is facing an extreme rightwing challenger in the upcoming April 2 election, did not hide his outrage at the multiple ways in which Walker proposes to privatize and undermine public k-12 education in the budget. “The budget as proposed creates too many winners and losers, with the 870,000 children in our public education system drawing the short straw,” Evers told the committee.

    From creating a state-wide charter school authorizing board outside of the control of local school districts to freezing levy limits on local taxing authorities while increasing funding for private, mostly religious voucher schools and expanding the program to new cities, Evers lambasted the proposal and urged the committee to “stop the continued defunding of public education.”

    Evers called a proposal for vouchers for students with special needs, “a dangerous experiment with our most vulnerable students” and urged the committee to remove it from the budget. He also advised against using the newly created school report card system as the basis for awarding $64 million in competitive incentive grants. “Instead of providing all schools with sustainable resources to achieve the new standards and expectations that we have set for college and career readiness, the budget as it is currently written would provide fleeting bonuses to some schools while leaving too many others on the sidelines,” he quipped.

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:00:13 PM PDT

  •  WI-Gov: Walker closes defense fund (0+ / 0-)

    ...but not before paying out another $248,000 to a Chicago-based law firm.

    Interestingly, this news was released by Walker's spokespeople on Good Friday. Fridays/holidays are usually days when politicians release news that they consider to be unfavorable for them in order to avoid as much negative attention as possible.

    Link to story

    Additionally, there is reportedly a still-ongoing FBI probe into Scott Walker

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 03:59:54 PM PDT

  •  SSM (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, KingofSpades, stevenaxelrod

    Facebook has released this map showing what areas of the country had high and low percentages of people who changed their Facebook profile to an equal sign on a red background to show that they support same-sex marriage (for the record, I live in Vermilion County, Illinois, and I did not change my profile picture).

    Mississippi appears to be the least "red" state whereas Vermont and several other states are very close to being the most "red" state, but I can't tell which one is the most "red". Texas is noteworthy for one reason: Travis County stands out as a "dark-red" island in a "light-red" sea.

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 05:30:46 PM PDT

    •  Oregon and Colorado are both pretty "red" too (0+ / 0-)

      Interesting map.  College towns are almost all of the dark red.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 05:37:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Travis AND Williamson (Round Rock) (0+ / 0-)

      The next darkest level in Texas are all anchored by college towns:

      • Denton County (oddly darker than both Tarrant and Dallas) has  UNT and TWU.
      • Brazos County, which has A&M.
      • Walker County, which has Sam Houston State.
      • Nacogdoches County, which has Stephen F. Austin State University.

      After that its either large cities (the rest of the DFW metroplex and Bexar County and its northern suburb New Braunfels in Comal County) and two other college town anchored counties Lubbock (Texas Tech) and Brewster (Alpine, home of Pete Gallego, and Sul Ross State University).

      Interesting that Houston isn't as dark as either San Antonio or DFW.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 05:52:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting Divides (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, CF of Aus

      I find it interesting that the entirety of the west is basically as pro-gay in this measure as the midwest and the northeast. It's basically the deep south + Arkansas and the western halves of Kansas, Nebraska, and Tennessee, then two distinct portions of Oklahoma (surprisingly not the entire thing) - the southeast and the rugged west - Missouri's bootheel, and North Carolina's shoreline that are the holdouts.

      And from that you can quite obviously subtract Austin.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 05:59:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One last point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Colorado really has completed its transformation into a blue state, being among the most consistently and thoroughly dark state on the map (by my eye Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts are the only states that match it - ofcourse this doesn't take into account population distribution, but it is definitely heartening to know that rural Colorado throughout stands with the gay community relative to other rural areas).

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 06:01:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd imagine that if you could look at the raw data (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        that even when you controlled for partisanship, the more urban an area it is the higher the support for same sex marriage is.

    •  Wyoming (0+ / 0-)

      Seriously? Weird

    •  I didn't realize Coconino County AZ (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod, pademocrat

      was so liberal.

      also noticed some other interesting ones. Washoe County redder than Clark County in Nevada. the fact that college counties seem to be redder even than more Democratic counties.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 08:15:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No surprise, the three darkest counties in Indiana (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Are Monroe (IU), Delaware (Ball State) and Tippecanoe (Purdue)

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 01:29:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not Remotely surprised (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That Madison is the only city on that "least religious cities" list more than 200 miles from the coast. That city is full of Godless heathens and I love it!

  •  Man with world's easiest job isn't running for (0+ / 0-)

    re-election. Utah GOP Chairman Thomas Wright says he won't run for re-election in May.

    At least publicly, he wasn't having problems with reigning in the Utah GOP, so I have no clue why he's resigning. He raised a lot of money for the party, but had a rather hands-off approach, letting the party do what it wants (the John Swallow case being a good example of him bowing to the party's wishes).

    I've long been convinced that he wants to run for some office (with no real evidence, just a gut feeling), so I think he's preparing to run for an office; maybe he wants a crack at Matheson (unlikely, Mia Love has everything mostly wrapped up on the Republican side), or a long-term statewide run for 2016.

    Here's a more informed viewpoint than mine.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 09:50:57 PM PDT

  •  Thanks Darth Jeff (0+ / 0-)

    For compiling that list! As for Don Young, he reminds me of that crazy old uncle from eras gone by who will say anything no matter how offensive it is around the family dinner table at Thanksgiving or Christmas time. It's like dropping a man from the 1950's office environment (think Mad Men), into a 2013 office environment.

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