While the Republicans begin the cycle with a little advantage in the Recruitment of this cycle, thanks to some early Recruitment, they have some unexpected failures that let the current situation in a tie.
This is a good result for a mid-term election.
Before continue reading you need to know that all the following analysis is only for the races where every party would be leading, tied, or at least would have a competitive incumbent in the situation of M Pryor. The most decissive part of the recruitment is always in the races where you have at least a good chance of winning.
Unfavored not-incumbents of both parties are not included in the diary but have a place in the poll.
DEMOCRATIC SUCCESS IN THE RECRUITMENT
We can begin talking about the Democratic success in the recruitment process. In this side we have two groups, the people who confirmed a bid, and the people who is leaning to run:
NM-Sen: T Udall
DE-Sen: C Coons
HI-Sen: B Schatz
RI-Sen: J Reed
MN-Gov: M Dayton
IL-Sen: R Durbin
NH-Sen: J Shaheen
VA-Sen: M Warner
LA-Sen: M Landrieu
MN-Sen: A Franken
AK-Sen: M Begich
OR-Sen: J Merkley
CO-Sen: M Udall
NC-Sen: K Hagan
AR-Sen: M Pryor
NJ-Sen: C Booker
MA-Sen: E Markey
IA-Sen: B Braley
PA-Gov: A Schwartz
SC-Gov: V Sheheen
VA-Gov: T McAuliffe
Leaning to run, or thinking about it:Of course I hope all them confirm (fast if it is possible) a bid. To have not them would have bad consecuences for the Democratic prospect in the big majority of the cases.
CO-Gov: J Hickenlooper
HI-Gov: N Abercrombie
CA-Gov: G Brown
CT-Gov: D Malloy
NH-Gov: M Hassan
NY-Gov: A Cuomo
VT-Gov: P Shumlin
OR-Gov: J Kitzhaber
ME-Gov: M Michaud
RI-Gov: G Raimondo
FL-Gov: C Crist
IL-Gov: L Madigan
GA-Sen: M Cleland
MT-Sen: B Schweitzer
In the case of MD-Gov we have not still polls and we can not call a frontrunner. The frontrunner of this race should improve the last result of P Glendening, something that seems not very difficult.
DEMOCRATIC POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT
It is not easy to know what races can give the chance to see at least a Toss-Up, before to see some poll or before to see confirmed some retirement, but I will try.
Races where we can see still an improvementFor WI-Gov, while I prefer R Feingold running for the senate seat in 2016, I would like if some poll would check the former governor J Doyle vs S Walker. I think he can be over R Kind at this point. All the highest level Democrats must pressure here because S Walker seems feeling the fear to lose. He has other dreams.
For ME-Sen, I wish stronger pressure over the Republican senator S Collins. Looking at the voting record of A King many of us miss not O Snowe, and Im sure we would not miss S Collins. The constituency is favourable and with enough fight and pressure the Democratic party can have a very good pick-up option. Some strong Democrat must emerge from this situation.
For SC-SenB, there is not evidence about the strength of the appointed senator. It is necessary to poll V Sheheen and J Hodges (at least) for this seat. South Carolina can have some hidden good pick-up opportunity.
For OK-Gov and OK-Sen, the populars former senator D Boren and former governor B Henry maybe competitive. It would be interesting some poll here.
For WY-Gov, the popular former governor D Freudenthal also can be competitive, and again it would be interesting to see some poll here.
For TN-Gov, the same, the popular former governor P Bredesen also can be competitive, and again it would be interesting to see some poll here.
If new polls for the last five confirm not my early calculus and give not Democratic leads or a tie, these races would have the Republican side favored, and would be in the same situation of the races of the poll.
DEMOCRATIC FAILURES OF RECRUITMENT
Confirmed they will not run or are out of the game:Surely the Recruitment failure with the worst consecuence is for NM-Gov, where the Democratic Party goes from a likely gain to a likely lose only with the early retirement of J Bingaman. He was necessary still in New Mexico.
MI-Gov: G Whitmer-V Bernero-G Peters
MA-Gov: D Patrick
MI-Sen: C Levin-J Granholm-G Withmer-V Bernero
OH-Gov: T Strickland
NM-Gov: J Bingaman
WV-Sen: J Rockefeller
But is in Michigan where we live the biggest chain of recruitment failures. As consecuence, both races in Michigan will be a lot more competitive than the necessary. Surely MI-Gov and MI-Sen will be the most competitive races in all the D+ states, with WI-Gov. After the deception, with J Granholm basically (I wish to call her to reconsider a bid), my help will be assured for the courageous politicians who run for both offices.
The early retirement of D Patrick also will create troubles in MA-Gov, where still is not assured a strong candidate.
T Strickland and J Rockefeller feel not enough strength to afford a competitive and difficult race in a R+ state. I blame not them.
REPUBLICAN FAILURES OF RECRUITMENT
Confirmed they will not run or are out of the game:As you can see they have also as big recruitment failures as the Democratic Party. Even they have their own chain of recruitment failures in Georgia. There are also two hidden cases that I fear and I will not talk about.
GA-Sen: S Perdue-N Gingrich-H Cain-S Chambliss-...
AZ-Gov: J Kyl
SC-SenB: J DeMint
NE-Gov: M Johanns
In overall terms, in the races where the Democratic party has a real chance of winning, the things are going well for the blue team this cycle, except in some isolated case. I glad.