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In my opinion there is a lot of information missing regarding the constant beating of the war drums by North Korea. Therefore I am solicitating  the DKOS folks for any factual information that may shed further light on the dangerous unrest going on in North Korea. The Main Stream Media (MSM) has been completely useless in this regard. The information that I have been able to garner is presented after the orange squiggle below.

What makes the current situation so dangerous is that three of the most important people integral to the current situation on the Korean peninsula are all new in their respective positions. Starting with the "Great Successor" himself, the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un who assumed power in December 2011. Next is the President of South Korea, Park Guen-hye was just sworn into office on the 25th of February 2013, and she is South Korea's first woman President. Next is the General Secretary of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Xi Jinping who took office in 2012. A quick glance at the dates that these people came into their respective positions of power will make it clear that none could be classified as seasoned operatives.

At this juncture it appears that urgent communication must be established among all three parties if the possibility of an outbreak of accidental warfare is to be avoided; especially in the area of the DMZ -  which currently no longer exists since Kim Jong-un declared that the provisions of the 1953 Armistice which ended the hostilities of the Korean war will no longer be recognized by the North.

Here is where I need a little help. Somewhere in my foggy memory I recall that the previous General Secretary of the PRC, Mr. Hu Jintao invited Kim Jong ll, Kim Jong-un's father, to China for a conference. It was reported that Kim Jung ll made the trip round trip to China by train. Subsequent to the event that  I just referenced Kim Jong ll was on another train trip in December 2011 when he suffered his fatal heart attack.

Regardless of the paucity of information regarding the conference between Kim Jong ll and Hu Jintao, I think that it is time for young Mr. Kim Jong-un to take a train ride to China for a critical conference with Mr, Xi Jinping. Such a conference would be in everyone's interest, as the current condition of the entire regional Asian commercial engine would be severely damaged by any serious armed conflict in Korea, and I think the only one that can make the case to Kim Jung-un is the Chinese General Secretary.

One additional person with a huge interest in the current Korean situation is our new Secretary of State, John Kerry, who coincidently is also very new on the job. However, I personally think that this situation is so critical that President Obama must use his personal contact with Xi Jinping to expedite setting up a conference between China and North Korea so as to resolve tensions straight away.  

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Comment Preferences

  •  China does not want the war , (6+ / 0-)

    China is the one selling oil to NK .
    Its said that 90% of NKs oil comes from China .
    For NK to have a hope they need the oil .
    Without the oil their war will go very badly for them .

    China wants NK to go on being NK ,
    they don't want lose NK to the west .

    China knows that NK can't save themselves if they attack SK a big way .
    China does not want a hot war with the U.S.

    China can stop the flow of oil if NK does things that China does not like .

    Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

    by indycam on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 12:45:08 PM PDT

    •  The current problem is the high possibility (5+ / 0-)

      of an accidental trigger of actual shooting. The North Korean guards on the DMZ are well known for their bellicose nasty attitudes and from time to time they have actually randomly fired their rifles at the South side of the DMZ. In a continuing tense standoff situation I don't think these guys can keep their cool, and could easily create the kind of incident that would quickly spin ou tof control.

    •  That said (and it's right on), (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      China does not have a problem with NK keeping SK off balance. SK is a world manufacturing power on the rise and that challenges China's markets. Diverting SK's attention and development to defense, helps China's export sector, no?
      As the diarist points out, though, all the major players are new to the jobs and things could easily spiral out of control.
      If it was up to me, I would have scrapped the war games and worked to de-escalate the sabre-rattling, tried to open one on one talks with NK to see if there was some confidence building measures that we could agree on with the new guy.
      But then, The State Department would never hire me so what do I know.

      If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

      by CwV on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 01:16:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They have to talk with old hands . (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CwV, hnichols

        Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

        by indycam on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 01:17:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with you (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CwV, Creosote

        The solution to NKs problem is not isolation forever. It's a situtaion that requires working out. Unfortunately with the changes in political leaders here in the US, we never maintain a continuous policy except more and more isolation. The reason that Kim Jong ll's oldest son did not follow him as the leader of the North was because he got caught sneaking into Japan several years back because he wanted to go to Disneyland. When the news broke it was a huge embarrassment on NK, so he was by passed for Kim Jung-un. The success of that recently closed trade center, which provided day work for NK people who worked for SK industries proves that the North is suffering badly from the isolation. The US needs a program to bring NK back into the world community but it will be a slow process and require multiple Congresses and Presidents and lots of time to accomplish it.

      •  South Korea vs. China (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mortifyd, Creosote

        The difference in manufacturing between SK and Ch. is that South Korea creates intellectually a lot of what they export. China, on the other hand, builds to specification most of what they export. China is very good at "reverse engineering" consumer product knockoffs.
        The tell-tale is that SK pays (give or take) reasonable wages to their factory workers. China must build fences around their plants and erect anti-suicide nets on the buildings. And dormitories, too.

  •  I presume someone is keeping close tabs (0+ / 0-)

    on the amount of oil PRNK is using vis-a-vis the amount PRC is selling them & encouraging the Chinese to squeeze the latter number down as close to the former number as possible.

    The single best way to keep the NK Army from getting frisky is to keep their POL stockpiles small enough that they'd run out of gas somewhere between the DMZ and Busan, turning the battlespace into the Mother of All Turkey Shoots for the ROKs & their allies.


    by Uncle Cosmo on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 01:36:41 PM PDT

    •  As a Korean Veteran (0+ / 0-)

      I can assure you that if NK decides to attack the South they would be in Seoul before the U.S. could scramble fighters off a carrier deck. Trust me nobody will be able to stop the NK soldiers 120 mile advance. Then what do you do? Pay ransome??

      •  In a sense we've been paying PRNK protection money (0+ / 0-)

        for many years--ever since they planted enough hardened artillery just north of the DMZ within range of Seoul that if Kim Du-jour wanted to commit suicide he could take several hundred thousand South Korean civilians with him. That fact, & not a may-or-may-not-be-deliverable nuke, is what keeps the ROK & the rest of the civilized world walking on eggs with respect to P'yongyang.

        (FTR I worked defense for something over 20 years so I'm not zackly ignorant here.)


        by Uncle Cosmo on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 02:07:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  you think they'd attack by land? (0+ / 0-)

        that would be a suicide march, NK edge is in their missiles, they could flatten Seoul with their non-nuclear arsenal alone...

  •  You forgot the most important question. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dclawyer06, marsanges, Creosote

    The one Americans always forget to ask.

    "What are we doing to them that is pissing them off so bad?"

    Denial is a drug.

    by Pluto on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 01:42:21 PM PDT

  •  Xi has been preparing for this role for many... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lcrp, Creosote

    years. So while it's true he's new to his job(as is Li Keqiang, successor to Wen Xiabao, and 2nd in power).

    I think China will have a stabilizing influence here.  Xi & Li are very powerful but the true levers of power are wielded by the PSC, a group that was reduced from 9 to 7 members recently---and there's the bizarre but lasting power struggle between Xi's 2 predecessors, Zhang Zemin and Hu Jintao(who have been vying to get their followers in key spots). But in the midst of all that drama are huge, established and seasoned public officials who can lean on N. Korea.

    I have to believe China has a few generals on speed-dial to intervene should Jong-un act precipitously. They don't want thousands of refugees pouring over the border into China.

    One last thought, I think the biggest deterrent to war on Korean peninsula is the same thing that keeps India from going to war with Pakistan, S. Korea, like India, is flourishing and sees no benefit in waging war with what is essentially a failed state.
    Why would South Korea want to risk massive casualties and economic instability just to mix it up with the deranged leader of a broken nation?

  •  Jang Song Thaek has visited China (0+ / 0-)

    Reports conflict about whether Kim Jong-Un has. Yes, even the simplest things are hard to ascertain about North Korea.

    China's attitude is probably mixed. Some of the generation that incurred huge casualties in the Korean War are still alive and influential, and may be sentimental about the North. The new leadership focused on the economy must be fed up with what lousy trading partners the North Koreans are. Their history encourages them to maintain a "strategic buffer" on the peninsula, but a strategic buffer that requires endless subsidies and keeps trying to suck you into war is not the best kind.

    China has power, but not much influence. They don't want to bring the NK government down and don't have much leverage short of that.

    Freedom isn't free. Patriots pay taxes.

    by Dogs are fuzzy on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 02:24:38 PM PDT

  •  Here's the most important fact: (0+ / 0-)

    As I understand it, SK can currently excercise control of US assets, including US nuclear assets, in the region, if they're attacked.

    •  No one in can employ (0+ / 0-)

      US nuclear weapon assets without US National Command Authority authorization. Perhaps you can share the source of your understanding.

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