Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

7:42 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: We've finally gotten results from Nassau County, NY, which means we can finally calculate presidential election results from the last four outstanding congressional districts, NY-02 through NY-05. Obama's performance on Long Island matched, more or less, the pattern observed elsewhere. NY-02, NY-04, and NY-05 all recorded slight swings towards Obama and are now 51.6 percent, 56.3 percent, and 90.6 percent Obama, respectively. Not coincidentally, they contain minority-heavy areas in which Obama generally performed better in 2012 than in 2008. NY-02 Rep. Peter King becomes the last member of the Republicans-in-Obama-districts club, but Democrats haven't yet figured out how to effectively challenge him.

In contrast, NY-01 (for which we'd already had results) and NY-03 recorded rather sharp declines in Obama's performance. NY-03 Rep. Steve Israel's district is now actually only 50.8 percent Obama. Israel's personal strength prevents the district from being competitive in the short-term (and his ascent into leadership will likely keep him in the seat for years to come), but certainly, this is something to be aware of moving forward.

And as always, you can find a permanent link to our presidential results for all 435 congressional districts here. You'll definitely want to keep it bookmarked. (jeffmd)

10:07 AM PT: PA-13: We have another official entrant into the as-yet unofficial race to succeed Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who still hasn't announced her expected gubernatorial bid. Democratic state Rep. Brendan Boyle kicked off his campaign on Monday, and it sounds like he hopes to ride union support to victory. But assuming Schwartz does indeed leave her seat open, it's going to be a very crowded field indeed. State Sen. Daylin Leach is already up and running, and two other candidates have filed FEC paperwork. More are sure to join.

10:25 AM PT: ND-Sen, IN-Sen: Just tying up a loose end here, since you probably already saw last Friday that two more Democratic senators came out in favor of same-sex marriage: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana. Both Heitkamp and Donnelly are freshmen in very conservative states who were each lucky (for different reasons) to win their respective races last year.

On one level, it was easy to imagine that these two might be among the very last holdouts on the issue for political reasons. But on the other hand, given the mass movement in favor of marriage equality among their Senate colleagues in recent weeks, plus the fact that neither has to go before voters for another six years, their decisions are perhaps not as surprising as they once might have seen. In any event, this leaves just four Democrats in the Senate who have not yet said they support same-sex marriage, which is pretty remarkable.

10:48 AM PT: Well, make that three: South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson, who is retiring at the end of this term, just added his name to the pro-marriage equality list.

11:07 AM PT: PA-Gov, PA-13: Well, here we go! Rep. Allyson Schwartz officially launched her heavily anticipated campaign for governor on Monday. That makes her the third Democrat to enter the race, but she's by far the strongest candidate to take on Gov. Tom Corbett. Polls have shown her with sizable leads over the deeply unpopular Corbett, and what's more, she can immediately transfer the $3.1 million in her federal fundraising account to her gubernatorial campaign, giving her an immediate boost.

There are still other names who might get into the primary, though, such as Treasurer Rob McCord and ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, so Democrats could still wind up with a hotly contested nomination battle. But Schwartz is well-situated for that fight as well. She's built up a powerful network of connections as she's risen through the ranks in the House, and she'll also almost certainly earn the formal endorsement of EMILY's List. Schwartz can't take things for granted, of course, and bad blood between her and McCord could lead to some unwanted ugliness, but right now, she's the frontrunner.

Schwartz's move also opens the floodgates for her House seat in northern Philadelphia and its suburban outreaches. PA-13 is a safely Democratic district, so interest is running high.

11:33 AM PT: IA-04: Defeating GOP Rep. Steve King will always be an incredibly difficult challenge just thanks to the demographics of his rural, northwestern Iowa district, but his incendiary mouth always gives Democrats hope. Iraq vet Jim Mowrer looks set to become the latest to give it a try. According to Roll Call, he is "all but certain to run" against King, according to an unnamed source. Mowrer is currently a special assistant to the Under Secretary of the Army and has also served as an advisor to the progressive veterans group VoteVets.

11:46 AM PT: KY-Sen: Vague reports that Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes would create a campaign committee in the wake of Ashley Judd's decision not to run for Senate a few weeks ago haven't panned out, but Grimes at least is still not ruling out a bid. In recent remarks to a gathering of Democrats outside Louisville, she said "I don't know what the next step is for me," but told the crowd "you all give me the courage to continue on in that journey." So it doesn't sound like she's particularly eager, but she seems to be giving the idea more thought.

If she were to take the plunge, one advantage Grimes has is that she wouldn't have to give up her current job in order to challenge Sen. Mitch McConnell, since she's not up for re-election until 2015. So if she were to lose, she'd still be able to stay in office and continue her political career. (And a narrow loss in which she acquitted herself well could actually provide a boost.) State Attorney General Jack Conway managed something similar, losing Kentucky's open seat Senate contest to Rand Paul in 2010 but coming back to win a second term as AG the following year, so there's recent precedent for this.

11:55 AM PT: NH-Sen: Ah, I love this. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, trying to fluff his Granite State credentials as he considers an improbably comeback bid one state to the north, made sure to remind the press that he "was born at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard." Portsmouth is, of course, a well-known town in New Hampshire, but David Jarman noticed a hilarious problem with this claim: The shipyard is on the other side of the Piscataqua River, in Maine. That led Brian Valco to dub him "Bangor Brown," but Jed Lewison thinks "Boston Brown" is the better fit, because when the union was founded, what is now the state of Maine was actually part of Massachusetts. So put on your birther tricornes and go vote for your favorite nickname!

12:29 PM PT: SD-Sen: According to a new report in the Argus Leader, supporters of U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson seem to be doing a much better job giving the appearance of enthusiasm for a potential Johnson Senate candidacy, while ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's backers (to the extent she has any) have been far quieter in this "shadow" Democratic primary. However, Johnson declined to comment on the ongoing efforts to draft him into the race to succeed his father, retiring Sen. Tim Johnson, due to his current job as the South Dakota's top federal prosecutor. (The Hatch Act forbids civil servants from engaging in partisan political activity.)

12:44 PM PT: Meanwhile, it looks like ex-Gov. Mike Rounds, the establishment GOP pick who has been in the race since November, is already choosing to tempt fate. Conservatives have been busy casting about for a true believer alternative to Rounds, and now he's given them new ammunition by refusing to sign any anti-tax pledges put forth by the Senate Conservatives Fund, the group formerly headed by ex-Sen. Jim DeMint. Perhaps Rounds thinks no one will actually challenge him from the right, or perhaps he's just willing to live dangerously. This is nothing new for Rounds, though, since he's never taken Grover Norquist's infamous "no new taxes" oath, either.

12:44 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: If you read one academic poli sci paper today, it should probably be this one (pdf): it proposes that racial animus may have shaved off up to 4% off Barack Obama's popular vote percentage in both 2008 and 2012. It finds a fairly strong relationship at the media market-level, between fall-off in Dem performance from previous presidential elections and the area's level of racial animus (as measured by Google searches containing racially-charged language), without seeing that fall-off in other elections, like at the House level.

The most interesting part may be if you scroll down to near the study's end, where there's a list of states, ranked according to racial animus. Some of the top states are Appalachian-area states where, indeed, Obama took the biggest nosedive (West Virginia, Kentucky -- and, maybe most noteworthy, Pennsylvania, where he won without much trouble but also, of all the '08/'12 swing states, was the one with the weakest Dem trend). But the others are Deep South states, like Louisana and Mississippi, that are among the most 'inelastic' states (to use Nate Silver's coinage) because of heavy racial polarization, states where Obama actually trended upward in 2012 because of strong black turnout.

12:56 PM PT (David Jarman): Maps: Occasionally you run across a map that's worth a thousand words, and this is one of them:

Map of ratio of services to goods across 210 metropolitan areas in the United States
It's a map (courtesy of urban studies prof Richard Florida, writing at Atlantic Cities) of the nation's metropolitan areas, weighted according to each metro area's ratio of production of services to production of goods. In other words, the bluer a metro area is, the more post-industrial it is, more oriented toward a creative-class or service-sector economy, while the more yellow it is, the more it's oriented toward old-school manufacturing.

Notice any correlations to political behavior? The knowledge-sector blue is concentrated in much the same places as the political blue: the Northeast, California, Florida, the major cities of the midwest. The goods-oriented yellow is in the red states: Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Indiana, rural parts of North Carolina. It's natural to think that manufacturing and extraction = unions = Democrats, but this map really stands that on its head.

1:28 PM PT: ME-Gov: Her name's certainly been mentioned a lot, but I'm not sure we'd actually heard from the horse's mouth before, so here's Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree on the record. Pingree admits that a gubernatorial run against GOP Gov. Paul LePage is "tempting," but is characterized as feeling that it's "it's too early to decide." Pingree adds that she's spoken to fellow Rep. Mike Michaud and says, "Neither of us wants a primary."

However, both members of Congress are moving up in the lower chamber, something that seems to be holding them back from making a bid for governor. Of course, there's also the issue of independent Eliot Cutler, who could very well siphon off enough left-leaning votes to hand LePage another weak plurality win.

1:52 PM PT: ME-02: Navy vet Blaine Richardson says he's going to run for Maine's 2nd Congressional District a second time. Richardson lost the GOP primary to state Sen. Kevin Raye last year, who in turn lost to Dem Rep. Mike Michaud, but he performed much better than expected given his Some Dude status, falling short by a 60-40 margin.

2:06 PM PT: According to a staffer, though, Schwartz is pledging to remain neutral in the race to succeed her.

2:25 PM PT: NYC Mayor: A liberal group called NYC Is Not for Sale 2013 has sprung up to run the first TV ads of this year's mayoral race. Their spot attacks City Council Speaker Christine Quinn as an phony progressive out to help "her friends in the one percent," motivated only by "political ambition" as she seeks a promotion to Gracie Mansion. Quinn's campaign, of course, lashed back, calling the organization a pawn of rival Bill de Blasio, but the union-backed group seems to be a bit amorphous, with one supporter calling their mission "A.B.Q.—anybody but Quinn."

In any event, NYC Is Not for Sale is forking out $250,000 for their initial ad run, which doesn't sound like a lot in the expensive Big Apple media market. But with candidates limited to spending $6.7 million apiece in the primary in order to qualify for public matching funds, they could have a legitimate impact if they follow through on their promise to up their outlay to $1 million.

3:48 PM PT: IL-Gov: While she hasn't even announced she's running for governor yet, state AG Lisa Madigan has managed to outraise incumbent Pat Quinn in the first three months of the year. Madigan took in over $770,000 while Quinn pulled in just $551,000. (These figures only cover donations of $1,000 or more.) She also has far more cash-on-hand, $3.6 million to just $1 million for Quinn. A third Democrat, former White House chief of staff Bill Daley, has also been contemplating a bid but he hasn't created a fundraising committee yet.

3:59 PM PT: FL-18, -26: Strong first fundraising quarters for two vulnerable freshman Democrats: Patrick Murphy and Joe Garcia each raised $550,000 for their re-election campaigns.

4:03 PM PT: And in NY-18, another first-term Dem, Sean Maloney, also pulled in an impressive $500,000.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:00:11 AM PDT

  •  Yahoo takes a look at what the Senate would be.... (19+ / 0-)

    ...like without the 17th amendment:

    58R 41D 1I

    That's all you need to know about why the teabaggers are pushing this.  It has nothing to do with any philosophical BS.  It simply puts more republicans in office.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:08:48 AM PDT

  •  Margaret Thatcher passed away this morning (9+ / 0-)

    She suffered a stroke and passed away today, she was 87.

    •  RIP (5+ / 0-)

      None of her economic policy was anything that I agreed with, but I did respect and admire her leadership skills.

      26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:26:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can we tick off some of the good things she's done (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gigantomachyusa

      My knowledge about her is tainted by the fact her administration cratered the mining industry (and still has not healed) just to break a miners' strike against privatizing the coal bureau.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:19:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Miner's Strike was in response to her (5+ / 0-)

        Shutting them down. Thatcher was not a pleasant woman, but perhaps because she was a woman and a scientist, and was never a member of the "in" crowd she was someone who looked at the world and asked "why" as to why things were done a certain way. Then she had little reluctance in ending them.

        In the case of the mines, Thatcher realized

        1. Coal was dead. Coal cost more to produce in Britain than it did to import, more to burn than alternative means of power, and the only thing keeping the industry, which was fully state owned after the 1940s, afloat was massive taxpayer subsidies.
        2. That these subsidies had grown so great that they were threatening the rest of the economy, and were major contributing factor both to tax rates above 80%.
        3. That rather than keeping the mines open and training a new generation of miners to work in unproductive activity it would actually be cheaper to close the mines and pay the miners for the rest of their lives.

        These sorts of conclusions are not far from what Obama himself has indicated. Coal is done for, and the government shouldn't be propping it up. What Thatcher gave them is far more generous than US miners will get. The thing is that exactly what she was afraid of(ie. a culture growing up around the mines where the children of miners all become miners themselves) was why it was so socially destructive when she shut them. While she kept paying miners, she told their kids they would have to find other work.

        The irony of Billy Elliot is that as much as the title character and family hate her, by quitting the mines and becoming a famous dancer he did exactly what she wanted - escaped.

        •  Good points. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BenjaminDisraeli

          Reminds me of what I read about Clinton's '92 election campaign where he said that blue collar labor can't be expanded in this era and he can't promise restarting steel mills, but that we shouldn't look back and instead look forward to a new, technologically advanced career market.  

          And what did she offer that was generous to the miners?  Surely it would have cost a fortune to help so many laid off miners find new work?  I guess temporary time "on the dole" with a welfare-to-work strategy.  But the miners didn't want to lose dignity by being on the dole so this was unpalatable.

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:39:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  She's a bit like Rudy Giuliani on a large scale (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, IndianaProgressive

            Pretty much everyone agreed things were bad in the late 1970s and that they had to change, and there was even general agreement among their predecessors(Dinkins/Dennis Healey) about the direction change should take. Ultimately they came in and made changes that by 1987/97 led the majority of voters to believe had made their lives much better. There were clear dark sides to these processes(racism and police brutality for Rudy, increased unemployment and the destruction of traditional industries for Thatcher) but on the whole the electorate seemed to feel the bad outweighed the good.

            Eventually the same egotism that made the early successes possible increasingly caused the bad to begin catching up with the good and both left office having overstayed their welcome.

            There is of course revisionist history in both countries that Dinkins/Healey were moving in the right direction, that the improvements could have been had without the downsides. Maybe that would have happened, but it didn't and most people have generally accepted what happened as neccisary.

          •  And yes, that's true about coal (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, ArkDem14

            The only kind of "clean coal" in existence is HG and UHG anthracite, and that stuff is uncommon and expensive.  In today's environmental standards when people inhaling coal smoke and finding coal ash runoff in their water supply is unacceptable, traditionally used bituminous coal (let alone lignite coal) won't cut it anymore unless you can extract the sulphur and other volatiles.

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:56:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  for those who don't know (5+ / 0-)

              anthracite is the most compacted form of coal and is practically metamorphic rock.  It burns the hottest and longest, but takes the highest heat to ignite.  It has a 90-95% carbon content depending on grade and less than or equal to 1% sulphur content and is smokeless.  The only thing cleaner is coke, but that's not used for fuel, but for steel mills.

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:13:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  The Miners themselves got benifits (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, KingofSpades, JGibson, ArkDem14

            The issue, was, as you noted, they wanted to work. Just as importantly they wanted their sons to be able to work as miners. That they might receive benefits and training was of little value if their kids ran off to London or came up with weird ideas, or god forbid turned out to be gay.

            One reason Billy Elliot is quite good about this is that it captures both how Thatchers policies were devastating to an existing world, but also led directly to social changes she probably neither foresaw nor desired. The kid who wants to be a dancer benefits from the lack of a future in the mines by having his parents embrace that, and the gay kid, freed from parental expectations, also finds a new life in London.

            What the Tory right does not and never did understand was that by breaking the north, and small-town, blue-collar culture, Thatcher also broke social conservatism beyond recovery.

      •  Here are the good things (7+ / 0-)

        www.buonoforgovernor.com

        by Paleo on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:56:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Would you say Cameron is better or worse? (0+ / 0-)

          Cameron's definitely been more scatterbrained than her.  He tries to be welcoming to immigrants, but then the right flank whines, so he makes it far harder to get work permits and now the service industry is understaffed.  He tries to paint the Tories in a more enlightened light by passing SSM through the Commons, but the majority of his party votes against it (although they don't whip these kind of votes).

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:00:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  My biggest gripe was her support of (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gigantomachyusa, General Goose, nimh

          Section 28:

          The amendment stated that a local authority "shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship".

          Because it did not create a criminal offence, no prosecution was ever brought under this provision, but its existence caused many groups to close or limit their activities or self-censor. For example, a number of lesbian, gay and bisexual student support groups in schools and colleges across Britain were closed owing to fears by council legal staff that they could breach the Act

          The law wasn't repealed till until 2003!
          “During her rule, arrests and convictions for consenting same-sex behavior rocketed, as did queer bashing violence and murder. Gay men were widely demonized and scapegoated for the AIDS pandemic and Thatcher did nothing to challenge this vilification,”

          In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

          by lordpet8 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:00:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Thatcher's Tenure (11+ / 0-)

        Bad Things She's Done:
        1. She labeled Nelson Mandela and the ANC as terrorists and gave tacit support to the Apartheid regime at the time
        2. She turned the other way while her best friend in Chile, Augusto Pinochet was actively maiming, murdering and torturing his political opponents, all in the name of a draconian economic utopia supported by the Chicago Boys
        3. She dismantled most unions simply because they were ardent supporters of her political rivals, Labour (sounds like something a political party that starts with R and is closer to home would like to do). At the same time, she appeared indifferent as her policies led to the economic collapse of much of Northern England (Labour stronghold)
        4. She gutted local governments of key functions and created a centralization of government into London (hence why London is booming, why the rest of Britain is in worse shape)
        5. She destroyed relations between Westminster and the three outer nations (Northern Ireland, Scotland & Wales). So much so, in fact, that one of Tony Blair’s first reforms was the establishment of devolved parliaments for Scotland and Wales (and away from the privy fingers of Conservatives in Whitehall)
        6. She and Ronald Reagan were responsible for the gradual “overton window-ing” of trickle-down economics which led to conservatism becoming mainstream
        7. She abolished countless municipal councils, including those of the Greater London Council, simply because her party could not win them anymore
        8. She destroyed Britain’s industrial sector and led to its current overdependence on service-related financial firms. This has created Britain’s (and London’s) current obsession with placating bankers at the expense of the nation’s other 63,000,000 residents
        9. Under her tenure, Britain’s GINI Index Score (a measure of inequality) increased by nearly 40%, one of the highest increases in Europe
        10. Under her tenure Britain experienced two recessions, including the one in 1990 that ultimately led to her ousting by her own party

        Good Things about Baroness Thatcher
        -----------------------------------------------------
        1. She was a woman
        2. She was played by Meryl Streep in 'The Iron Lady' (and who doesn't like Meryl Streep?)
        3. She defeated the Argentinian junta (which is the feather in her cap although Argentina has never been known for its military prowess)
        4. She inspired a whole new subset of British punk rock opposed to her. This formed the base of many types of music to emerge at the time (Britpop, Grunge, Alternative). Likewise, her rule led to a new Renaissance in more unconventional art. Again though, these forms of art blossomed in opposition to her so it’s kinda of backhanded insult on my part

        All in all though, I think she was a strong leader that had a profound impact on her country, if not for the better. Her major fault was lacking the sympathetic ability to understand how some of her more ideological policies were hurting her citizens. This created a lot of economic hardship at home while her foreign policy was unapologetically jingoistic and nationalistic, even neo-colonialist in some ways. I only wish that in her passing she can experience the peace and happiness she denied to so many during her tenure. RIP Mrs. Thatcher.

        21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

        by gigantomachyusa on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:03:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My thoughts on the death Margaret Thatcher (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gigantomachyusa, gabjoh

      or the death of any conservative politician or figure here in the US, would probably get me banned here on DK, If I really said how I feel. So I'll keep my thoughts to myself.

      I do feel sorry for her family. But personally I can care less about the woman.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:44:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sometimes I wonder (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, R30A, ArkDem14, nimh

      how the UK would have turned out had Jim Callaghan called an election in the fall of 1978 instead of waiting until 1979. I think Labour would have won, since the disastrous Winter of Discontent had not yet occurred and opinion polls showed Labour in the lead. Callaghan would then have been able to ride out the Winter, and possibly even use it to his advantage by taking the opportunity to confront Union power (though not to the extent that Thatcher did), which would have won him the support of the centrist middle class, who were angered that the Unions had gone too far. Callaghan would have still been Prime Minister when oil was discovered in the North Sea, infusing the UK economy with a new source of income and providing a perfect opportunity for the Callaghan government to invest a massive amount of money in British industry. The economy would have rebounded without the drastic cuts in social services Thatcher advanced, and England would have averted Thatcher's ultraconservatism.

      Pure speculation, of course, but as somewhat of a romantic I enjoy fantasizing about what might have been.

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:36:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It reminds me somewhat of a similar situation (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, jncca

        in the US in the late 70s. Except our point of departure is that Ford doesn't pardon Nixon until he wins the 1976 election (or he just wins it anyway) and the economy still tanks and the Iranian revolution still happens. Then there's a massive blue wave instead of a red one in the 1980 elections and Ted Kennedy gets elected with Democratic supermajorities in both chambers and passes universal health coverage.

        Counterfactuals are always interesting to ponder, but I feel like that scenario in particular has almost no downside seeing as A) Carter had no major accomplishments aside from the Israeli-Egyptian peace pact, and B) Ford appointed John Paul Stevens to the court while Carter got no opportunities and C) Carter's presidency made Reagan's possible, hurling the middle class on a relative downward spiral ever since.

        •  Carter had other accomplishments (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, JBraden

          He was the one who officially reopened diplomatic relations with Communist China, though Nixon paved the way. Also:

          -Panama Canal Treaty which led to the eventual reintegration of the Canal zone into its sovereign nation.
          -SALT II Treaty with the Soviet Union
          -Important environmental legislation including Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act.
          -As you noted, the most significant and lasting piece of Middle Eastern peace agreements, the Camp David Accords, were negotiated and arranged by Carter.

          Lastly, it tends to be underrated or unnoted, but Carter's Presidency was mostly an upbeat economy; he created more jobs in his one term than did Nixon-Ford in 2 terms. The problem was he was a micro-manager, not a great politician, and the last year of his Presidency was by far the worst.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:59:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's too positive a spin (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            on Carter's economy.  If it were mostly upbeat, then he should have been reelected or come close regardless of his campaigning or political shortcomings.

            While jobs were created throughout much of his term, wages didn't keep pace with inflation, which routinely ate away at paychecks at an ever-increasing rate and for many produced a double whammy of tax "bracket creep" when they owed the IRS more but they couldn't keep more of their earnings as most things kept costing more, including basics like food and fuel (and gas shortages didn't help.)  To deal with inflation the Fed and Carter pursued policies that ended up causing recession and job losses just as Carter was seeking reelection (and a worse recession in Reagan's early years.)

            Carter's attempted solutions to these problems didn't inspire great confidence even among Democrats; he came into office criticizing the tax system as unfair, but in response to tax protests he acquiesced in the GOP's cut taxes on the rich strategy and did more to reduce taxes on unearned income (capital gains and such) than on income earned by work which kept getting eaten up by inflation.  Under Reagan the tax structure of course got worse.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:51:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Reagan's initial solution too (0+ / 0-)

              was to cause a double-dip recession just to deal with inflation. Technically the recession under Carter ended in the summer of 1980. Improvements came too late to help Carter.

              It also hurt that there was a leftist third party candidate on the ballot, and that, like I said, Carter was a pretty lousy politician.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:55:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Also, the charming Annette Funicello passed away (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, abgin

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:59:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  thankfully, this isn't a list of (12+ / 0-)

    IL House Republicans who will vote for gay marriage. Two suburban representatives, Ed Sullivan of Mundelein (Lake County) and Ron Sandack of Downers Grove (DuPage County) have announced support for the bill. I'm really starting to feel good about gay marriage in IL.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:21:14 AM PDT

  •  Sadly (14+ / 0-)

    Margaret Thatcher, UK prime minister between 1979 and 1990 suffered a stroke this morning and has passed away. It is a great achievement for a girl from a working class family to gain a place at Oxford to study Chemistry, and then go on become Prime Minister.
    Thatcher will be less remembered for her time as a research scientist, during which she helped discover the process that creates soft-scoop ice cream, a technique that is still used by ice cream manufacturers to this day.

    Iranian and German by origin. British by birth.

    by germankid101 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:27:00 AM PDT

    •  I had no idea she was a chemist. (0+ / 0-)

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:18:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So her lab created soft-serve ice cream? (0+ / 0-)

        The kind dispensed by machines in one of two flavors or swirled together?

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:20:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Lots of female leaders are (0+ / 0-)

        Isn't Angela Merkel also a chemist?

        21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

        by gigantomachyusa on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:06:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes; she's a physicist (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ProgMD, gigantomachyusa

          with a doctorate in quantum chemistry.  Whether she ever consciously modeled herself on Thatcher is unclear, but they do share a remarkably similar background as European female scientists turned national leaders.

          Fun fact about Merkel I learned on a tour of Berlin last month: at the moment the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989 she was relaxing in a sauna.  She had no background of officeholding or major political activity to that point, but that soon changed as she joined East Germany's democracy activists, eventually to become the first East German to lead the reunified country.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:30:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ugh what is it with these science PhDs (0+ / 0-)

            making incredibly horrible leaders.

            Maybe we need some Rush Holt! for president haha. For a while when it looked like Menendez's 'scandal' bullshit had some legs I was nonetheless excited, because if he resigned then Holt could/would have had a senate seat to run for.

            Seriously though, I'm always reminded of the Jon Stewart quote where he said something along the lines of "Angela Merkel is just very lucky that the bar for 'worst German leader of all time' is set so high."

            •  In Thatcher's case (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              nimh, ArkDem14

              Its because women were not admitted to read PPE at Oxford in the 1950s. The Humanities are still an overwhelmingly male and middle class preserve there, and the treatment Thatcher perceived pretty much alienated her from "liberalism" generally by giving her(and someone like Merkel as well) a view of liberals as upper class misogynist hypocrites who talked a good game about feminism, the poor, but really didn't have much exposure to either. Partially because the average Politics Philosophy and Economics student in 1950 was an upper class graduate of Eton, Westminster or St. Paul's who genuinely was both misogynist and out of touch. Its also worth noting that someone who spent time there, the gay "culture" at Cambridge/Oxford in the 1940s was if anything nastier and more bent on excluding women than everyone else. Its still considered a problem and if its anything like today it wouldn't be a surprise that coming from her background she developed some degree of hostility to gay rights movement while there. Its a mark against her that she failed to overcome it, but I can't really blame her for developing it in the first place.

              The result was that Thatcher saw only two real political forces. The real Britain of suffering small business people like her family, and the raw force represented by the Unions. One of the real problems with the miners strike is she saw it as a personal dual between herself and the leader of the Union rather than as a policy question.

              Science might reinforce it, but a big issue was that Thatcher was someone who very early on came to believe that there was no real "center" or "liberalism" between Marxism and herself.

              •  Also Re Clause 28 (0+ / 0-)

                Thatcher had previously crossed over and voted to decriminalize homosexuality. Her issues were with a very specific aspect of it, and like most things with her probably had a lot to do with her tendency to personalize and caricature opposition.

                Thats in no way a defense. She was wrong. But there are reasons why a woman in the UK of her generation and life experiences would have specific views on that issue, namely that a lot of self-made women tended to see homosexuality as inherently misogynist and demeaning to women, and the sexual revolution as a plot by rich men to get legal cover for affairs.

                This may sound nuts today, but given that five members of her cabinet were in fact having gay affairs while they were in office and that sort of thing was far from rare among male Tory MPs, one can understand why it got sucked into her general paranoia about betrayal.

  •  MN-GOP (6+ / 0-)

    Buried at the end of this story are the two points that really matter. (I really wish political junkies could filter all the stuff we all know out and get to the 1 or 2 nuggets buried in the stories).
    1: The nominating process is not going to be changed by Downey. There has been talk among party loyalists that want to abolish the nominating convention, or at least make it nonbinding like the DFL did a few years back.

    2: Downey all but admitted that the state party will not pay off its debt before the 2014 elections, and basic party operations will not be run by the party, but instead by various conservative groups. This is a BFD, as this is a huge deviation from what is done all over the country with state parties running the show and activist groups providing the man power and some of the advertising. This is going to be a test on how well this sort of arrangement will work out, and I suspect other struggling state parties across the country will be watching to see how it goes.

    •  Link (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ArkDem14

      I Forgot the most important part!

      http://www.minnpost.com/...

      •  Here's hoping it's a miserable failure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        It would be nice if Al Franken and Dayton could have easy reelection campaigns and Democrats hold their current numbers in the state legislature.

        Perhaps Mark Ritchie can finally get an easy election too.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:02:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have serious doubts about the legislature (0+ / 0-)

          They seriously need to get their act in gear, get on the same page, and tell some outside influences to STFU. There is a very real possibility that this session may cost the DFL the house, much as I forewarned about in January. Sigh... At least it's not a done deal yet, and the MNGOP is still a disaster, so there is a chance we hold the House.

          •  Even if Democrats screw the pooch (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            Could the state GOP's dysfunction keep the legislature blue?

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:42:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Can you explain why? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, wwmiv

            And please don't tell me that this is just because they're pushing gay marriage when you don't view that issue as salient right now.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:14:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  This is exactly why (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn

              And he's made it clear on many occasions before.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:28:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Its not just that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              Budget negotiations are going poorly at best. Dayton is at odds with the House and Senate, although oddly the house and senate are on roughly the same page. But the public bickering is a disaster.

              There is a big issue with the state funding of the new Vikings stadium. Essentially the Wilfs fleeced the state on several levels, to the point where some politicians are calling for a rescinding of the authorization to built. The electronic pullrabs fiasco isn't helping

              The Fairview University Medical Center ordeal is not looking well in our leaders. It is a much more complex issue than I am going to go into here, but its enough to make me queasy, and I am not a person of weak constitution. Ultimately what would be a disaster for the state, may catapult Lori Swanson in a much higher position within the state and position her well foe 2018 governor.

               Basically it is a giant disaster on every possible level, and the DFL trifecta has lost its chance to be seen as the savior of the state, and nownos just fighting to me "at least better than Republicans". Its disgusting.

      •  BTW (0+ / 0-)

        How was someone like Mary Kiffmeyer ever elected statewide in Minnesota?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:03:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a down ballot race (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, ArkDem14

          And remember, Democrats weren't exactly doing that hot in the state when she was elected. In 1998, the DFL nominee for governor took 3rd place, behind Jesse Ventura AND Norm Coleman. In 2002, Tim Pawlenty won his first term as governor, and former Vice President lost to Coleman for a senate seat following the backlash from the Wellstone funeral.

          •  It's pure conjecture of course, but (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            I've often wondered how MN-Sen 2002 might have turned out if Wellstone had lived.

            I think he would have won, but it would have been tough.

          •  But Kiffmeyer is the worst sort (0+ / 0-)

            of unpleasant social conservative that hasn't gone over well in Minnesota statewide elections. Even in 2006, Mark Ritchie just barely beat her.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:08:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Wow so that makes it official (6+ / 0-)

    Only 194 D+ districts and 209 won by Obama in 2012 (thanks gerrymandering!). Rather oddly though, he underperformed the average considerably on Long Island, at least compared to the statewide margin.

    With that data now more or less complete I should have a diary out later today giving you a walk through to my updated congressional guide + pres and downballot average by CD sheet, including results for New York. Thanks for all the good work jeffmd!

    •  Here we go, NY CD partisan average (2010) (6+ / 0-)

       photo NYCDData2012_zps780c7b1d.png

      Obama underperformed very significantly in Israel's district while Pete King's is surprisingly now D+ for the year of 2012, leaving us with 195 D+ seats in total. He also underperformed significantly in Bishop's district and somewhat less so in King's and Grimm's which we absolutely should have flipped last year. Rather surprisingly, Obama underperformed in some of the Hudson valley and upstate districts, at least based off of comparing the difference in his statewide margin to the district with the difference between the average statewide and the district. At first I thought this had to just be 2010 and that the 2006 and 2012 elections would be different or that this data was weird, but it's straight from the board of elections and the county level data corroborates that; however I now still want to double check it because it just looks odd.

  •  Minneapolis mayor (0+ / 0-)

    A list of the candidates. I personally have no preference, and don't particularly care for any of them. Although Cherryholmes leaves a slightly worse impression on me than the others. All are seeking the DFL nomination except Winton. The person that gets that endorsement will be the next mayor once Rybak leaves in January.

    http://www.minnpost.com/...

    •  Do you think Rybak is done with politics? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      It doesn't look like we'll have an open senate seat for awhile, and Dayton is running for another term, so there don't really seem to be any imminent possibilities for advancement.

      •  Minnesota has a bench problem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        Too many candidates for very few seats. Unfortunately governor in 2010 was Rybak's shot. Personally, I would love to see him primary and wipe the floor with Ellison, but that won't happen.

        •  That's a good problem to have IMO (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ponder Stibbons, LordMike, WisJohn

          We have something similar here in CA.

        •  What's wrong with Ellison? (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:05:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He is everything that is wrong with politicians (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            He is snide, condescending, and utterly uninterested in anything resembling constituent service. I asked him a simple question at a debate between him, Fine, and Lee, and he looked down his nose at me, sneered, and blew me off and dodged the question. It wasn't even anything controversial, it was with regards to his relationship with the University of Minnesota (he is an alum, the school is in his district, and that debate was hosted by the school). Ever since then I have thought of him as a condescending, entitled politician that feels safe in his ivory tower deep blue district. There is absolutely nothing wrong with him ideologically, he is just an a**hole.

            •  That's exactly how he comes off on TV (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              Very full of himself.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:05:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  WI-SD17: Schultz draws a serious primary challenge (9+ / 0-)

    Sen. Dale Schultz, the only Republican Senator to vote against the union busting bill and the iron mining bill, is going to face a primary challenge from State Rep. Howard Marklein. Marklein represents the most Democratic of the three ADs in the 17th, so at the very least the 51st should be a Dem pickup.

    http://elections.wispolitics.com/...

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:15:10 AM PDT

    •  Can he beat Shultz though? (0+ / 0-)

      and, more importantly, can we get someone who can win the SD in that scenario?

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:24:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes. Definitely. (6+ / 0-)

        Schutlz vs. Random Teabagger Pasty would be a toss up at worst for us. Schultz vs. Howard Marklein is at least Lean Marklein. Howard will probably have much of the Walker Machine behind him in addition to the usual suspects like the CfG.

      •  I don't know, and yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, ArkDem14

        I think whether Schultz survives depends on whether there is a Dem primary on the ballot to draw Democratic-leaning independents into voting in the Dem primary instead of the Republican. He's still popular in the district, possibly more among Dems.

        One candidate who'd be good is Sarah Ann Shanahan. She's run for Assembly in the 50th AD (the most Republican of the three) in the last two cycles, coming within a few points of winning in 2012. If she can run as far ahead of the top of the ticket district wide as she did in the 50th, she'd win easily.

        Other possibilities include Carol Beals, who ran against Schultz in 2010, but lost an Assembly race in 2012 in a more Democratic district. Fmr. Rep. Phil Garthwaite might be interested, but he has a reputation as a somewhat undisciplined campaigner.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:55:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Tammy Baldwin won SD-17 52-46 (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, jncca, KingofSpades, ArkDem14, JBraden

      and HD-51 55-43.

  •  WI-SD-17: Republicans just gifted us (9+ / 0-)

    A state Senate and Assembly seat.

    Howard Marklein to challenge Dale Schultz

    I'm not really sure what they're doing here. Howard isn't some random pasty and is likely to have establishment support lined up. I guess they figure that Dale Schultz is screwed anyways and they have a better shot at holding the district with Marklein than with some random pasty, but still, Marklein is no moderate and I'm pretty sure our top of the ticket won this district even in 2010. It' would take another wave for them to hold this without Schultz, and the most likely result of this is us picking up both Schultz's Senate District and Howard's Assembly District.

    •  Wisjohn last night said (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, lordpet8, bythesea, JBraden

      that Obama and Baldwin won it last Nov. and that Tommy Thompson's hometown is here.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:26:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think Barrett won it. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, lordpet8, JBraden

      Feingold may have narrowly, but I don't think Barrett did.

      I'll try and crunch the numbers later today.

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:02:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So I crunched numbers. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, KingofSpades

        Both Barrett and Feingold lost SD-17.

        Walker won about 52-47.
        Ron Johnson won by about 50-48.

        Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

        by WisJohn on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:22:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Barrett and Feingold (0+ / 0-)

          both had an absurd drop in the Driftless region of Wisconsin in 2010. You just don't normally see 13 point drop offs after a Presidential race, even in bad environments. Even Ron Kind struggled their that year. The issue is this area of the state is losing its traditional Republican affiliation quite fast, and trending Democratic.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:08:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Still tilts Republican downballot. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            Last year I thought for sure that we would at least pick up the 51st and 49th Assembly districts, and we didn't. But you are right in that it is getting more Dem quickly.

            I do think that if Marklien is the Senate nominee, we will pick up both the Senate seat and his Assembly seat.

            Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

            by WisJohn on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:45:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  IA04 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, R30A

    We have a candidate: http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    You'd think King would be easier to beat than whoever they nominate to replace him but you never know.

    Also, how was Christine Vilsack as a candidate?  Is King really that locally ensconced?

  •  Could you make the results by cd table sortable? (0+ / 0-)

    (if it's not too much work, that is)

    Thanks!

  •  IA - Sen (14+ / 0-)

    King now says he sees a path to victory he didn't a week ago. He told an Iowa newspaper that he's done recent polling that showed he could win.

  •  SD-SEN: Mike Rounds wont sign anti-tax pledge (6+ / 0-)

    and of course, conservatives are upset.

    link

    Obviously, a successful primary challenger would help Dems hold the seat, especially if they can recruit Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Or even Brendan Johnson, who I still think could be a pretty strong candidate.

  •  Would any of you be interested in me uploading (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacques Kallis, lordpet8, WisJohn

    my automatic color by county spreadsheets for various states for DRA? Once I have a set of parameters that can correspond to districts (1=red, 2=blue, etc) and get a number for every county, I can use them to just copy, paste, sort, then color by .csv (it takes like 10 seconds). I'm not sure what else there is besides openheatmap that David Jarman used the other day and I know having to use an image editor like paint to manually fill everything in is a pain in the ass.

  •  SD - Sen (4+ / 0-)

    Let's hope this develops into full blown cat fud.

    I actually respect Rounds' position but it doesn't seem politically expedient in a Republican primary. Will this be enough to draw a credible primary challenge?

    27yo. Gay Male. Democrat. WA-09

    by VanityFlair on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:35:07 AM PDT

  •  Bloomberg article on Battle Ground Texas' goals (0+ / 0-)

    with lots of look at data and the long game.

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:20:24 AM PDT

    •  I hate it. They could do two more promising states (0+ / 0-)

      with that kind of money. North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are all much closer to the tipping point and we'd see the gains by 2016 when they'd all be legitimate swing states.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:31:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with you on Arizona (6+ / 0-)

        but otherwise there's just not nearly as much potential. The data we've seen so far suggests that there are so many potential eligible voters in Texas and more importantly I think it's an easier sell to big money donors, because if Texas (or more importantly Florida) becomes a blue state, that's the nail in the coffin for the GOP's hopes of winning the electoral college for the next few cycles. That's at least what they and the people who willingly open their wallets are thinking.

        I agree though, that logic, if it applies at all almost certainly applies to Arizona, though not really Florida.

        In states like North Carolina and Georgia we aren't really seeing blacks register to vote and exercise that right at much lower rates than white like we are in Texas or Arizona, so while there's somewhat more to gain short term  by investing resources there, it's inevitable in the long term that Texas will become a blue state if elligible Hispanics turned out at the same rate as whites.

        •  Exactly (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, pistolSO, skibum59, ArkDem14, JBraden

          Georgia and North Carolina already have established Democratic machines that are able to muscle us to victory (NC more often than Georgia), any additional investment is just simply icing on the cake. The long-term demographic trends are driven not by Hispanics, who are low turnout, but by African Americans who are good turnout on their own - I.E. we don't need the investment in order to win.

          Arizona has a much lower percentage of Hispanics and much much lower percentage of eligible Hispanics than Texas, and whites are trending away there just as they are in Texas. Given Texas's faster demographic trend and greater disparity between whites and Hispanics in voting rates (not to mention that Texas has a substantial African American population that Arizona lacks and turnout among African Americans here is low relative to other black heavy states) there is a unique opportunity in Texas that doesn't exist elsewhere especially given that Texas is such a large prize in the electoral college.

          It makes sense on multiple levels.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:00:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  let people in those states try to create a (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        similar program, and raise the money.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:43:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  GTFO (0+ / 0-)

        I need a job! :-P

        SSP alumni, 27, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

        by trowaman on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 06:25:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Chelsea Clinton doesnt rule out future run for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    public office.

    I think it was one of Gore's daughters who was asked this same question and they joked, "I'd run away from public office."

    I think if your the child of a prominent politician, having to go through that and seeing what your parents go through, can really be a turn off from running for office yourself.

    That's especially true of Chelsea, given what she had to deal with during the Lewinsky affair.

    So if after all that, she is saying she might be interested, I think it means she will probably run for something one day.

    As she kind of points out in the article, though, there dont seem to be many offices to run for, if you are a Dem in NY.

  •  And here it is, my congress guide+pres by cd (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    So Marcus you and anyone else can go and sort it now if you like.

  •  Tim Johnson now for marriage equality (14+ / 0-)

    Not shocking, given that he is retiring. And I think he previously said he no longer supports DOMA.

  •  PA-Gov (4+ / 0-)

    Allyson Schwartz is officially a candidate for governor here in PA. She should be a strong front runner against the current plausible opposition in a primary. (Sestak has made no noise about running for this office and even if he did I think Schwartz would be a mild favorite.)

    Link: http://www.philly.com/...

    Long time lurker finally delurking. (24. Male. Born and currently reside: PA-8. College: PA-1. Grad School PA-2)

    by phillymax on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:57:57 AM PDT

  •  House Democrats and marriage equality (8+ / 0-)

    The Senate has gotten all the attention, and I think we have a good idea of where we stand.  Out of the four remaining holdouts, Johnson has been quiet and seems most likely as he is retiring, Landrieu personally supports it but says she must represent the position of her state, Pryor sounds legitimately undecided, and only Manchin has taken the effort to reaffirm his stance against equality.

    As for the House, last week, The Hill did a roundup, and found 11 House Democrats against same-sex marriage, and another 9 of unknown position.  The 11 confirmed against marriage equality are:

    John Barrow (D-Ga.)
    Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.)
    Henry Cuellar (D-Ga.)
    Bill Enyart (D-Ill.)
    Pete Gallego (D-Texas)
    Gene Green (D-Texas)
    Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.)
    Jim Matheson (D-Utah)
    Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.)
    Collin Peterson (D-Minn.)
    Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.)

    A tough crowd here.  Enyart might be the most likely to eventually switch once he gets entrenched.  Aside from him and fellow freshman Gallego, the rest voted to uphold DOMA in 2011, so yeah, tough crowd.  Green did respond by saying it should be up to each state though.

    The 9 that won't say one way or the other:

    Jim Costa (D-Calif.)
    Filemon Vela (D-Texas)
    Ron Kind (D-Wis.)
    Cedric Richmond (D-La.)
    Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.)
    David Scott (D-Ga.)
    Terry Sewell (D-Ala.)
    Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.)
    Pete Visclosky (D-Ind.)

    Richmond did say he is a "proponent of equal rights" and thinks DOMA is unconstitutional, but wouldn't expressly support marriage equality.  The rest didn't respond to The Hill.  Thompson and Scott voted against DOMA in 2011, but have given no other indications.  Sewell said she supports gay rights, but seems to prefer civil unions.

    In happier news, 9 of the 29 Democrats who didn't sign the brief urging the Supreme Court to strike down DOMA have since announced in favor of same-sex marriage.  They are:

    Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.)
    Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.)
    Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.)
    Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.)
    Rick Larsen (D-Wash.)
    Mel Watt (D-N.C.)
    Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.)
    G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.)
    Ruben Hinojosa (D-Texas).

    I'm seriously surprised by Cooper.  And it's also good to see several minority members of the caucus shifting to support, after disproportionate representation earlier.

    Here's another list I was following earlier, which had a stricter screen.  The difference is they didn't have anything from Corrine Brown, John Dingell, Ron Kind, John Larson, Bobby Rush, or Juan Vargas, but The Hill seems pretty sure they are in favor or marriage equality.

    •  Damnit Sen. Johnson (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, itskevin

      literally right after I post this.  Lol, seriously though I'm so happy about this.  Only three left in the Senate.

      •  Only two (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, ArkDem14, Audrid, JBraden

        I count Landrieu as a supporter, perhaps not an ardent one, but it is what she personally believes. Given that she represents Louisiana, I feel that cutting her slack and giving her the benefit of the doubt it the right thing to do.

        So just Manchin and Pryor, and Pryor seems to be moving in the right direction. He now believes that being gay is not a choice!

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:12:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Cooper (0+ / 0-)

      I guess I am surprised as well, because he isn't in any imminent danger of a primary challenge, but this is exactly the kind of issue that if he was stubborn about it would potentially get him in trouble because it is such a easy binary issue for voters as opposed to Cooper screwing us on debt votes, etc.

      CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

      by Jacques Kallis on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:06:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Cooper (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, psychicpanda

      Cooper's a deficit hawk and sure he holds some socially conservative views as well, but I think his record is not as dire as some may perceive it to be.  It was shameful to vote against Hurricane Sandy funding, but I don't know if those PVI statistics are an accurate picture of the ideology of his district or not.  I suppose we have to assume that they are an accurate picture.

      I live in Iowa and I guarantee there are still Democrats in Dave Loebsack's district that are more conservative than some Republicans in Tom Latham's district.  I guess some may not view that as a good comparison, but you still have people voting against their actual views.  

      •  Well for one I think the PVI *is* an accurate (4+ / 0-)

        picture of the district, if only because when you compare it to the rest of Tennessee where there were plenty of rural white counties that went Democratic locally until 2010, Nashville has always been solidly Democratic. Also unlike the south, it has tons of white liberals in addition to black voters. So even if social conservatism isn't toxic there, you'd think that a coalition of economically liberal black voters plus socially liberal whites plus solid liberals of any race would put up a serious fight against Cooper, but they haven't. What truly makes it bizarre to me is that Cooper brazenly carpetbagged there after his 1994 senate defeat. He used to represent the conservadem 4th district, but when Bob Clement retired in 2002 he moved there to run, so it isn't like he's been holding it down for decades.

        I really wish he had run for senate in 2006 instead of Ford as I think he'd have won (there wouldn't have been that "Harold call me" bullshit anyway), but we can do much better for a district as Democratic as this for the reasons it's Democratic. There's a reason why this district, out of all the white majority urban districts in the south, has never gone Republican and I mean never. Mike McIntyre's is the only other white majority district to have come close having last gone Republican during reconstruction IIRC, but it's a conservadem district. The fact that Cooper's never has even from 1994-2004 or in 2010 after Cooper voted for HCR tells me that, while it may not used to have had them, it has plenty of liberal Democrats today and enough so that a liberal should be able to win the primary.

        Also as a side note, Loebsack's district has some of the few counties in Iowa that seem to vote Democratic locally at considerably higher rates than they do for president which isn't the case in Latham's district, so you may be on to something there.

        •  Well (0+ / 0-)

          Even if Cooper had been our nominee in '06, do we think he'd have won in '12? Perhaps, but not necessarily.

          I do agree on all points though - including the preference for Cooper over Ford, who is arguably worse on policy in a move craven disgusting way.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:15:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Probably not I'd agree given how conservative (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, JBraden

            the state in general is and how unpopular things like HCR are there, but I do think he'd have won in 2006 whereas Ford didn't. We just don't know how well he might have done in 2006 and how poorly he would have done in 2012 though given how A) Harold Ford was black in the not quite Deep South and B) Corker ran against a right-wing nut-job last year who skewed the results.

            Obviously this is just my reaction, but if you think about that  study referenced in the DD, Obama had a penalty just for being black even in 2008, something that seems fairly reasonable to me. Then you put on top of that the pretty racist "Harold call me" ad that ran in 2008 and I think a more conservative Dem like Cooper probably would have won.

        •  Cooper may have run (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          against Corker if he hadn't lost statewide in the past.  I don't know if Bart Gordon, Lincoln Davis, John Tanner and Cooper would have gotten much support from the netroots given their voting records.  Of course Harold Ford ran into the same problem.

          If memory serves my perception is that Bart Gordon was the most liberal out of the bunch.  I don't go on Progressive Punch numbers or any of that, I just go from watching C-Span gauging debates, committee work and votes.  

          •  DW-Nominate says (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BoswellSupporter, ArkDem14

            Gordon: -.217 (between Massa and Arcuri)
            Davis: -.205 (between Driehaus and Betsy Markey)
            Tanner: -.190 (between Boyd and Melancon)
            Cooper: -.168 (between McIntyre and Altmire)

            So looks like you're right.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 04:34:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Correct (3+ / 0-)

            Out of the four Tennessee Democrats you mentioned, Gordon was definitely the most liberal and party-line vote. Here are the roll call results for the stimulus, healthcare reform, Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform, Cap and Trade, and DADT repeal. Lincoln Davis only voted "yes" for the stimulus. Jim Cooper only voted "yes" for healthcare reform, Cap and Trade, and DADT repeal. John Tanner only voted "yes" for the stimulus and Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform. Bart Gordon voted "yes" for all five measures. Gordon was by far the most reliable of the four.

            The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

            by AndySonSon on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 04:35:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              I think any of those four (Gordon, Tanner, Davis and Cooper) would make strong statewide candidates.  Obviously they would all have weaknesses and pluses.  None of them are going to run of course so it's just fun speculation.  I believe Gordon and Tanner may spend most of if not all of their time in Washington, could be a similar situation with Lincoln Davis.  

              I hope the voters of the 4th district of TN regret their decision to get rid of Davis, I think his voting record was a better reflection of the entire district.  

    •  Gene Green (5+ / 0-)

      it's a good thing he opposes same-sex marriage, since he needs to win crossover votes in his deep-red district.

      hope that dick gets a good primary this cycle.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:28:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  DeFazio voted against DOMA the first time (0+ / 0-)

      I think it was a foregone conclusion.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:54:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-04 (4+ / 0-)

    Democrat James Mowrer supposedly ready to run whether or not Steve King stays or runs for U.S. Senate. I am still convinced King will stay in IA-04.

    I posted more background on Mowrer and the latest voter registration numbers for this district at Bleeding Heartland. This would be a very tough lift for any Democrat.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:20:37 AM PDT

  •  NY-03 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    As I guessed, the GOP has a problem in the ~55% white Queens portion of NY-03. Turnout went from 46,905 voters in '08 to 41,928 voters in '12. However, the Obama percentage climbed from 60.6% two-way to 63.1% two-way.

    In the 2008 Presidential election, the Nassau County portion of NY-03, ~49.7% of the district as a whole, turned out 172,905 voters. Two-way, Obama got 53.9% of the vote.
    In 2012, 154,080 voters turned out in the Nassau County portion of NY-03. Obama got 50.4% of the two-way vote share. It trended about two points right as compared to the nation as a whole.

    In 2008, the Suffolk County portion of NY-03, just about 33.4% of the district as a whole, gave Barack Obama 51.4% of the vote. It turned out 119,176 voters for the Presidential race.
    In 2012, the Suffolk County portion of NY-03 gave Barack Obama 47.94% of the vote. It therefore trended ~1.5 points to the right of the national average in 2012.

    Trend-lines in NY-03 look good for the GOP, I think. I believe that the Nassau and Suffolk County portions of the district could continue trending rightward (and are ~84% of the district's overall population) so the district should, at least, stay very politically competitive even as the Queens portion of the seat diversifies and trends leftward.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:33:38 AM PDT

    •  If HCR is the nominee, it goes the other way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, ArkDem14

      I think Romney did a bit better here because it's a wealthy area.  Also, Suffolk and Nassau Counties used to be quite Republican until the 90's: http://en.wikipedia.org/...
      Nixon got 70.3% in Suffolk in 1972 and was his best county in the state that year.  LBJ only got 55.5%-44.4% over Goldwater, who tanked all across the northeast.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:40:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I'm not saying that NY-03 is a strongly Republican seat or that it ever will be. I'm simply saying that many of these wealthy voters are prone to become more reliably Republican voters in the short and long runs because of the "demonization of success" that they perceive coming from Democrats these days. That should help counter the shift towards the left from the Queens portion of the district.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:44:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have a problem using that term (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          because it's incredibly misrepresentative of the clear argument that Democrats are making, "demonization of success," and not an appropriate term for the ideology.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:46:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He said it's perceived (0+ / 0-)

            and I think it's fair to say many wealthy voters see it that way.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:06:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He also seems to imply with his overall (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew

              tone and statements that it's an accurate representation, which seemed to me to be antagonistic.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:13:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He made sure to say perceived and put the (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje

                phrase in quotes.  I think that's pretty decent respect towards the partisan lean of our site.

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:44:09 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Read upthread (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      statewide Democrats at least do much better here than Obama. For example, Gillibrand, despite having little to do with the area, got 54.7% here in 2010 while matching Obama's statewide percentage more or less. Even DiNapoli got 46.2% here despite doing a whopping 12% less statewide than Obama. The district only very mildly trended Republican relative to the state between 2006 and 2010 downballot.

      Combine that tendency with Israel's strength and I don't see him losing period.

      •  Israel (0+ / 0-)

        He's not prone to lose, but he could be caught sleeping in a wave. Remember that less than half of this district was his before 2012; it's not as if the whole district knows and loves him. He also hasn't faced a strong challenger in years.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:07:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Additionally... (0+ / 0-)

        Considering the way that the Democratic party talks about "the wealthy" and "the 1% wealthiest of all Americans" these days, I could see a permanent rightward shift (or, basically, a return to the 80s and 90s) in wealthy parts of Long Island and similar areas nationwide. I have a huge amount of data I've been compiling on 1% type areas nationwide and the shifts from '08-'12 are Appalachian-like in many places. My hometown and its surrounding town shifted in a huge way towards Romney.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:17:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That isn't translating downballot though (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          especially when you have Democrats like Israel cozying up to Wall Street, which makes total sense since he and especially folks like Schumer basically represent them. These sorts of areas don't have Alan Grayson types representing them and it's very easy for local Democrats to avoid that sort of rhetoric when they want to  in favor of social issues which play well here.

          Perhaps this mild GOP trend will accelerate in next year's statewide and general election to match upballot, but for now there's been a very marked pattern of Obama underperforming in Suffolk and Nassau counties and even Staten Island, though that was less pronounced last year than in 2008 due to Obama '12.

          •  "That isn't translating downballot though" (0+ / 0-)

            For now, you're correct on that front. Time will tell, but notice how Israel supported the "Bush tax cuts" the first time around but didn't this past time? He's markedly not as "pro-Wall Street" or "1% friendly" or whatever one wants to call it as he was towards his Congressional career's beginning.

            Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

            by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:29:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's just as pro-Wall Street in policy as Obama is (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              I'm telling you it's all about the rhetoric and that's half Obama, half Mitt Romney. Yes, the GOP will run on those same policies in 2016 and it may even be on steroids compared to now like 2012 was compared to 2008, but Mitt Romney is the figurative embodiment of the 1% (really the .00001%) and there's a certain element of the electorate that, while a total drop in the bucket overall, is if anywhere concentrated most in places like suburban New York/Connecticut and has an affinity towards a fellow elite like Romney.

              Notice that as part of the leadership Israel basically votes the exact same way that Obama had the liberal wing of the caucus voting on taxes, but his rhetoric is totally different. That matters a lot to small blocks of swing voters and to donors. It doesn't really matter that much that he's not as "pro-wall street" as he was at the beginning of his career; that's to be expected because A) Democrats universally aren't over the same period and B) more entrenched incumbents don't have to kowtow to donors as much which gives him more latitude.

              The general point I'm trying to say is, Obama's performance isn't all that informative in this particular when trying to assess congressional vulnerability, for the same reason that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen isn't vulnerable despite having a D+1 '12 district, just like Israel isn't vulnerable in an R+1 '12 district. They're both safe for the foreseeable future.

        •  well (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, lordpet8, ArkDem14, gabjoh

          by definition the 1% aren't a significant amount of any congressional district, not even wealthier ones like Long Island or certain districts in New Jersey.  It's not like Long Island is packed house to house with millionaires.  The question is whether people merely making $100,000 a year feel that the Democratic Party is attacking them as well.  The Republican Party has been trying to make these voters feel as such, even well before all the talk about the 1%.  Separating the upper middle class from the rest of the middle class is a long-time GOP tactic.  However, the Democratic Party has taken care to only ever talk about tax increases on those making much, much more than just $100,000 a year.

          I would be interested in seeing your data, or if you could just point me in the right direction online.  You use the word Appalachian...is it really on that order?  Certainly no county-wide results (outside of Appalachia of course) have trends that marked.  So I assume you are talking specific precincts.  But even that seems hard to believe, unless there are other precincts within the same county that had such a blue trend to cancel that.

          I would also caution against reading too much just into 2008-2012.  One must also take into account 2000 and 2004.  I suspect a lot of these wealthy suburbs that you see as having a red trend actually had a decent blue trend since the 90s, and a single election doesn't make a trend.  Otherwise we would be calling Indiana GOP-trending, when in fact it still has a bluer PVI in 2012 than the Bush years.

          •  IllinoyedR and I have discussed this offsite (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, skibum59

            The PVI shifts in the super-wealthy towns are generally 4-7 points rightward.  So it's not as extreme as Coal Country, but it's pretty large for what was generally a stable election in terms of PVI.
            You can also look at my Orange County diary.  The very wealthy towns of Laguna Beach (R+4.5), Newport Beach (R+6.5), Laguna Niguel (R+5), Rancho Santa Margarita (R+5), Coto de Caza (R+6), San Clemente (R+5), and Dana Point (R+5) all had large shifts.  Northern California places like Atherton (from 57% Obama to a Mitt Romney win) and Hillsborough also showed this, as did wealthy precincts in Northern Cook County, Illinois.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:10:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thank you for that (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf, sacman701, ArkDem14

              I still think they must be viewed in light of the 2004-2008 shifts though, in which those areas actually had massive Dem trends in that single election.  They shifted so hard towards Obama in 2008 that it was easy for Romney to get back a lot of traditional GOP voters.

              •  Yes, I agree (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                skibum59, Skaje, ArkDem14

                Palin alienated these voters more than any others, most likely.

                2012 PVI related to 2004 PVI:
                Laguna Beach: R+5
                Newport Beach: R+4
                Laguna Niguel: R+0.5
                RSM: D+2.5
                Dana Point: R+1.5
                San Clemente: R+1.5

                So yeah it looks like it's a lot smaller but still something there.  I think Romney is the high-water mark in terms of PVI in many of these places, though.  He's about as good of a fit as you can get.  Unless the Dems nominated a rural Blue Dog which isn't happening.

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:05:39 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see a Republican beating an incumbent in (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, itskevin

      an Obama district. These trends may or may not be permanent, plus the area is a bit elastic in voting patterns. Obama won the district by 2%, while Israel won by 16%, which is a big difference.

      26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:30:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

        Again, I'm not saying the GOP is going to beat Israel. I think that's quite unlikely, unless he's somehow caught sleeping in a wave. However, I am saying that NY-03 could be win by the GOP this decade if Israel vacates it. Regardless, I think the GOP should run a well-funded challenger every cycle in NY-03 just so that Israel has to campaign and spend money on his own race instead of spreading it around.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:46:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  LA-GOV, Pres 2016: Jindal reverses course (6+ / 0-)

    on his tax plan.

    Jindal's plan would have replaced the state income tax and corporate tax with a sales tax.

    It's unpopularity was hurting Jindal's own numbers. One poll found his approval had sunk into the 30s and even President Obama was more popular than Jindal in LA.

    This will probably help him in LA, but it might damage his prospects in a GOP primary for president.

  •  Somehow I doubt that tea partiers will be (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ArkDem14

    foaming at the mouth to oppose this tax increase, although I was rather surprised that El Paso County voted narrowly in favor last fall.

  •  IN-2 (3+ / 0-)

    Apparently Brendan Mullen shared Joe Donnelly's status update last week announcing his support for marriage equality. I am not sure if that is him endorsing it or just passing news along. It seems like an endorsement which is interesting as he campaigned on protecting traditional marriage in at least one of his ads last cycles. I mention this because everyone talks about him running again in 2014 as he came so close last year. I do not know if that means anything in regards to his plans or not.

  •  PA-Gov: It's official (9+ / 0-)

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:09:24 PM PDT

  •  take a look at this article (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/...

    one thing I've wondered is if LA is basically what a sunbelt city in its old age looks like.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:10:12 PM PDT

    •  Who needs sustainability when you can have sprawl! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, psychicpanda, James Allen

      I have family out in L.A. and when I went to visit, you couldn't pay me to live there. I like living in a smog free environment where I don't have to drive everywhere. Although with Houston being the most obese of the major American cities (at least for several of the past years) it's no surprise that it has to spread out [rimshot]

      However, the electoral side of this is that urban packing of Democrats becomes slightly less of an issue in these sprawly monstrosities than it does in places like New York.

    •  Remarkably contentless. (5+ / 0-)

      We're a bit late in the day for an article to be celebrating "car-dependent suburban development" without mentioning the massive social costs, starting with global warming. It's just so screamingly myopic.

      And like most of this genre of sprawl-celebrating articles, it insists that New York and San Francisco aren't as popular as Houston and Phoenix because they're too expensive! And no one goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded... If there's a policy lesson here, it's that it should be easier for older cities to densify further so that the enormous demand for living in those places could be more fully satisfied.

    •  I'm skeptical of much written by the author (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, James Allen

      Joel Kotkin, who seems to <3 sprawl from his writings.  And he can shove his description of Washington as the great parasite up his posterior.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:29:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And his description of Austin as a "sprawl haven" (4+ / 0-)

        Is just plain off of the on the ground facts.

        Austin's growth over the past 8 years has primarily been urban infill and the density of such projects has substantially increased over the past 5 more specifically. Going forward, Austin's announced major projects are almost entirely urban and within the core.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:37:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kotkin (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Jarman

        He's a GOP hack who hates California.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 12:42:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kotkin isn't a pub (0+ / 0-)

          he calls himself a "Truman Democrat" and says he voted for Brown in 2010.

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:01:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  he's GOP (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            He calls himself that to try to keep his indie cred, but he routinely praises GOP policies and leaders while ripping on Dem policies and leaders.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:12:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  What is a "Truman Democrat" supposed to be? (8+ / 0-)

            Supports the New Deal and interventionist against the communist threat in east asia?

            •  Swears a lot... (6+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Chachy, LordMike, skibum59, Audrid, JBraden, gabjoh

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:28:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  And he is also (10+ / 0-)

              opposed to sharecropping, poll taxes, the "grandfather clause" of voting, and wants a desegregated military that is more closely watched over by the commander-in-chief than left to the devices of the generals.

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:30:14 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  and thinks (0+ / 0-)

              that cities packed with civilians and children are suitable targets to test atomic weapons on.

              Sorry that one's a low blow, but seriously, fuck Truman.

              •  I like Truman! (4+ / 0-)

                When Gov. MacArthur authorized the use of nuclear bombs on key targets in North Korea and on the Shandong Peninsula, Truman shut it down despite pressures to use it (even supported by a certain young Congressman named Lloyd Bentsen).

                Maybe what you're referring to was made out of ignorance on his part.  It's not like he did stuff like Eisenhower's Operation Plumbbob, which included exposing soldiers and parachutists to a nuclear detonation for war game exercises.  250,000 people were involved in all and no less than 38,000 got thyroid tumors and over 1900 died of radiation poisoning.  One test shot, Smoky, was a 44 kiloton detonation that 3000 army personnel were exposed to.

                "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:58:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm not saying Truman didn't do other good things (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, ArkDem14

                  or that he was the worst.  He was of a time where decisions like the atomic bombing were seen as correct, and any other number of leaders at the time probably would have made the same choice, or even dropped more bombs.  I spoke more out of frustration.  I've gotten tired of hearing modern-day apologists for the bombings and I heard another one the other day and it got to me.  It just infuriates me that it's still considered a debate, and that we can't just admit we were wrong and did a terrible, terrible thing.  And yeah, I know that in the context of the war, it wasn't even much worse than what we were already doing.  Traditional fire-bombing of Tokyo killed upwards of 100,000 people as well, but everyone forgets about that.  The Allies also killed 25,000 people in a single firebombing raid on Dresden, Germany.  It was simply a war where indiscriminately killing tens of thousands of civilians and children at a time was considered a tactical victory, and the nuclear bombs were no different to leadership at the time.

                  It's just when you actually read the backstory...how the targets were selected...they actually avoided regular bombing runs on the target cities in prior months because they wanted to use them as test subjects, to see the full extent of a nuclear explosion on an untouched city.  It's repulsive.

                  •  I saw that too (0+ / 0-)

                    The pilot of the Enola Gay said that it was later told to him that they were supposed to pick a virgin target to test the effects of a nuclear weapon on an unbombed city.

                    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:18:58 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  He hated doing it (8+ / 0-)

                Truman hated dropping the bomb, and was tortured by the decision to do so. He only did it because he felt that it was the only way to end the war and because the casualties for both sides would have been higher (than the bombs' direct and indirect causes of death) had he not dropped the bombs.

                If he hadn't made that choice, I would not be here today. My grandfather likely would have been killed.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:02:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Same here. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  R30A

                  My grandfather (paternal, as my maternal grandfather was 4-F due to a leaky heart valve) served with his brother as radiomen on the west coast.  He was getting training to serve on a submarine in the Pacific when the war ended.  Who knows what could have happened if the US had to invade Honshu.  If Okinawa was any indication, it would be an utter tragedy for everyone, but especially for the civilians.

                  "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                  by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:08:02 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Same here (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, wwmiv

                  my grandfather as a 100% Ashkenazi-American Jew faught against the freakin' Nazis in the Battle of the Bulge as a 19-20 year old where capture=death and would have been shipped over to Japan along with millions of other American (and allied) servicemen after May 1945. The casualties on both sides would have been catastrophic to the extent that the nations of Japan and Korea would not exist today in anything remotely approaching a fraction of the score or prosperity that exists there today. Further than that though, the Soviet Union would have had a field day rolling over our troops had they had decided to without the bluff of further use of atomic weapons. We didn't have the logistics, manpower, or resolve to match them in the European theater.

                •  ehh.... (0+ / 0-)

                  If Truman just bombed all japans war boats and airplanes there would be no threat or need for an invasion....

                  We only think nothing goes without saying.

                  by Hamtree on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:28:03 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I respect the fact (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Stephen Wolf

                  that the early end to the war possibly saved your grandfather's life.  I have an anecdote as well, and I don't mean this to be confrontational, I'm just sharing a bit so that you can see how others would have different perspectives: my best friend is of Japanese ancestry, and we got to talking one day about whether his family still has contact with relatives in Japan, and if he tried to visit like second cousins or whatever when he visited a few years ago.  Turns out he can't because his family came from Hiroshima, and the rest of his relatives that stayed behind died in the bombing.  He did visit the memorial at Hiroshima, and he described it as being a profoundly sad experience.

                  Again, I'm sorry for being confrontational about this, and posting borderline flame-bait.  I'm normally much better about this sort of thing on DKE.

                  •  That isn't confrontational at all (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Skaje, Stephen Wolf

                    And I do feel very bad for your friend, very very badly. That's a horrible thing to have to have gone through, but I do believe that more stories of lost family members would have occurred on both sides had the bombs not been used.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:18:19 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  wow, can't believe his whole family died (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Skaje

                    that's really awful. sorry to hear that. incidentally, Mazie Hirono is from Fukushima originally - while the 3/11 disaster only affected a small bit of Fukushima, I do wonder if she lost any family...

                    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:47:01 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Sorry, I have very little sympathy (0+ / 0-)

                    for WW2 Japan.

                    Commonly ignored in the debate over the use of nuclear weapons in Japan is the effect of continued Japanese occupation of most of East Asia.

                    Civilians in the whole of East Asia were starving by 1945, because, among other reasons, the Japanese military administrations of these countries couldn't be bothered to sufficiently supply the populace of these regions, instead trying to preach an ideal of self-sufficiency while requisitioning any supplies above the bare minimum to support the Japanese war effort.

                    Not to mention the arbitrary mass executions of people deemed likely to participate in anti-Japanese activity, their treatment of POWs, the activities of Unit 731, and so on.

                    I don't think the citizens of Hiroshima thought about these, did they?

                    •  I have little sympathy for WWII Japan either (0+ / 0-)

                      And you do bring up a good point.  America could have just waited Japan out, but East Asia was suffering.  That at least is an argument I haven't seen made before.  Usually the only thing American texts seem to care about is how it would have affected America, sadly.

                    •  this is certainly true (0+ / 0-)

                      although it's worth noting that not all victims of Hiroshima/Nagasaki were Japanese. there were quite a few Koreans brought over as forced labor and some Allied POWs as well.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:27:36 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Give me a break dude (5+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, askew, sacman701, wwmiv, Gygaxian

                There would have been 10s of millions of civil casualties had we had to invade Japan. The Soviet Union could have demolished our armies pretty much anywhere on land had we not had nuclear capability. I'm not disagreeing that it's fucked up; it's beyond fucked up, but it was also pragmatic.

                un-fun fact: Every single purple heart awarded since WW2 was manufactured in anticipation of just the American casualties from invading Japan. Our experience invading the vast majority of the Pacific that Japan held during WW2 was that 1) they fought to the death and didn't usually didn't surrender and 2) there was a huge proportion of their soldiers who would commit suicide when surrender or defeat was inevitable.

                I think Truman was an excellent president who was dealt a horrible hand. His courage on civil rights should be inspiring.

                •  And when civilians are involved, it would be worse (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Stephen Wolf, wwmiv

                  In the Battle of Okinawa, there was a significant civilian population and thousands of them committed suicide because they believed the Japanese military propaganda that the US soldiers would rape and pillage.  

                  "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                  by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:16:26 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  And wow, did not know that about the purple hearts (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv

                  That's sombering

                  "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                  by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:16:54 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  man (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Chachy, ArkDem14

                  looks like I've stepped in it.  I know the Live Digest isn't really the place for an escalating debate, so I'll keep it short.

                  If the tables were turned, and American cities full of civilians and children were destroyed with nuclear weapons to compel a surrender on our part, we would consider the attackers to be war criminals.  And we'd be right.

                  •  I never said it wasn't horrible (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades, Skaje, sacman701

                    but we have so much evidence that the invasion of Japan "Operation Overlord" would have made the invasion of Europe look like a walk in the park, even among civilian casualties. At least think about whether it's worth it to have killed a few hundred thousand civilians versus whether >20 million people died. It's a horrible choice to have to make, but one that I would hope no leader in their right mind would hesitate on if those were the only options available.

                    Sadly politics and war aren't fields where we can run experiments in sandbox mode to find out what works best. You do the best with what you have if you're Truman and you do the worst with what you have if you're MacArthur, which is why thank god Truman had the guts to tell him to shove it.

                    •  You touch on an important point there (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Stephen Wolf, wwmiv, sapelcovits, ArkDem14

                      the idea that atomic destruction of two mostly civilian cities, versus a lengthy and bloody invasion, were the only two options available.  There's hardly a consensus on that premise.  If nothing else, did the second bomb have to land just three days later, before the Japanese government had time to fully process the damage, and come to a decision?  Did the bombs have to hit major cities, rather than being demonstrated nearby?  If we had waited, would the prospect of facing both a Soviet and American invasion have compelled Japan to surrender instead?

                      You're right, we can't know those answers.  We can't run controlled experiments and fix our mistakes.  Accordingly, I can't understand how we can be so sure we were right then.

                    •  Truman and WW2 (3+ / 0-)

                      There's an argument that the US should have offered up front to let Japan keep its emperor and warned Japan that the USSR was about to attack them, but even that probably would not have been likely to convince Japan to surrender. IIRC the Japanese high command voted just 4-3 to surrender even after both bombs had been dropped and the USSR had invaded China, and that was because the emperor himself switched his vote.

                      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                      by sacman701 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:04:39 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Yeah, there was disconnect (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        When the Potsdam Declaration demanded unconditional surrender, many Japanese feared this would mean the Emperor would be taken as a prisoner, tried, and executed as a war criminal if they surrendered (and there was a call among many in the US command about doing just that).  

                        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:10:00 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't blame them (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades

                          for being nervous about what might happen during an unconditional surrender.  It turned out we were fair and magnanimous during the occupation, but they had no way of knowing that we wouldn't just slaughter them in the streets.  Unconditional occupation and complete loss of sovereignty is a difficult thing to accept when you believe the worst about your enemy.

                          I don't claim to know that Japan would have surrendered without the bombs.  It's possible they would have gone on resisting for quite a long time.  But I do think the American government set up a false dichotomy between testing its nukes on large Japanese cities (they almost chose Kyoto), or a long bloody invasion with assumed casualties in the hundreds of thousands on both sides.

                        •  That said, the Emperor keeping his post... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades

                          ... had a lot to do with MacArthur taking a liking to Hirohito. The Japanese Left was quite powerful postwar and would have been completely fine with abolishing the monarchy and making Japan a republic.

                          •  Well, having the Emperor preserved (0+ / 0-)

                            as a ceremonial position like in Britain is pretty much the same thing.

                            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:27:51 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                •  This is very problematic (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, sapelcovits, KingofSpades, Chachy

                  and I have issues with this sort of revisionist statements about Japan. You see, this is an issue that's come up in a few classes of mine, and you have to know the actual Japanese perspective. Had the U.S. military simply guaranteed that the Japan would keep its Monarchy, and that Soviet Russia not be allow to annex or set up puppet governments or support the communist movement there, Japan would have surrendered before an invasion, and without the need to drop atomic bombs.

                  The problem was, the American military brass wanted none of that. They wanted no-guarantees absolute surrender. There was also a strong, and racially tinted sentiment against the Japanese.

                  Japan's top brass knew the end was imminent. And they were willing to surrender, and at the same time the grip of the military junta was on its way out in the face of massive public discontent and material shortages.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:01:31 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  It's like how I'm a Lincoln Republican (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              That makes me a Democrat in today's politics.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:13:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Territorial Politics - did you know Guam votes for (10+ / 0-)

    President?  I did not, until I came across this.  These are obviously "mock" elections since Guamanians' votes don't actually count.  They have pretty good turnout, though.

    1996:  60-39 Clinton (Perot not on ballot)
    2000:  52-47 Bush
    2004:  64-35 Bush
    2008:  62-37 Obama
    2012:  72-26 Obama

    Looking at these results there are two possible explanations for the swings:  One, being so distant from the mainland they many Guamanians may just vote for the candidate they are most familiar with - hence the incumbent doing so well in '96, '04, and '12.  '00 was essentially even and '08 is an outlier because Obama was sort of local.  Another explanation for Bush's big number in 2004 is that Guam is basically a military base and (like Hawaii) had more pro-Republican sentiments that year.

    Now I have some questions about territorial politics in Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands.  I am unfamiliar with them:

    What are the parties like on the islands?

    Is the Democratic party more conservative or the Republican party more liberal?  

    Guam appears to be split between the two parties, while American Samoa leans towards the Democratic Party and the Marianas lean towards the Republican Party.  Here's what perplexes me, though:  Samoa doesn't have a Republican Party and the Marianas don't have a Democratic Party!  The two main party in the Mariana Islands (Republicans & Covenants) both appear to have a conservative platform.  How does that work out?

    •  Aren't the Mariana Islands (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda

      Still just one big sweat shop?  

    •  Guam is largely populated by military families (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda

      I believe, right?

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:37:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And snakes! n/t (4+ / 0-)

        27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:12:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes (0+ / 0-)

          One reason I will never go to Guam.

          •  And I'm terrified of spiders and am unlikely to go (0+ / 0-)

            to Australia

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:20:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've heard horror stories about (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, ArkDem14

              the giant centipedes and cockroaches in Hawaii but I'd still love to visit there because it's so beautiful.  At least they don't have any snakes in Hawaii, though.  I couldn't handle the million+ snakes per square mile in Guam.

              Spiders I don't mind.  It's just the speed of the giant centipedes and snakes and the creepiness of roaches that I can't stand.

              •  I don't mind tiny spiders (0+ / 0-)

                It's the big ones that I'm scared of.  Once, in the San Diego Zoo some years ago, there was an open display of orb spiders and I was paralyzed for ten seconds before getting the hell out of that building.  As for cockroaches, I hate them only if they live in my home.  And centipedes are unpleasant and I'm okay with so long as they stay outdoors.

                "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:34:23 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm okay with centipedes (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, askew, ArkDem14

                  that we have here on the mainland.  But have you seen the centipedes in Hawaii?  They're up to 8-10 inches long and move faster than humans.

                  •  Oh sh*t! (0+ / 0-)

                    I never heard of those, but I was on Oahu.

                    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 02:38:45 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  nah (0+ / 0-)

                    they're quick little bastards, but you can definitely outrun one if you want.  Mostly though, it was a whole lot of awkward jumping and flailing arms when I saw them (usually at the point of almost stepping on one).  They really aren't aggressive though, and will be skittering away from you as fast as their little legs can take them.

                  •  that's terrifying (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades, ArkDem14

                    parts of rural Japan have scary-ass centipedes, too. they apparently will bite you and if you kill one, they release pheromones that attract other centipedes. needless to say I wouldn't mind going my whole life without seeing one.

                    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:39:40 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

                      my friend spent a year teaching in a rural part of Japan for the JET program (the location name escapes me at the moment), and he said he was surprised by the bugs there.  Lots of bugs that simply seem to be larger versions of their American counterparts.  Big spiders, big wasps, etc.

                      •  yeah (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Skaje, ArkDem14, KingofSpades

                        I'm actually a JET too (not a teacher though) so I heard those stories a lot when applying. thankfully my town is pretty suburban and doesn't get the worst of the ickies, but I've still run into wasps before in the mountains. those things are terrifying...

                        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                        by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 04:07:41 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Howso? (0+ / 0-)

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:44:49 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  they can send you to the hospital. n/t (0+ / 0-)

                            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                            by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:46:06 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  more details from Wikipedia (5+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Skaje, KingofSpades, ArkDem14, jeffmd, wwmiv

                            http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                            An allergic human stung by the giant hornet may die from an allergic reaction to the venom, but the venom contains a neurotoxin called mandaratoxin (MDTX),[6] a single-chain polypeptide with a molecular weight of approximately 20,000 u,[7] which can be lethal even to people who are not allergic if the dose is sufficient. Each year in Japan, the human death toll caused by Asian giant hornet stings is around 30-40.[8][9][10]
                            BEEDRILL used POISON STING! It's super effective!

                            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                            by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:49:31 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That's scary (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades

                            I'm not going to go wandering in the woods in rural Japan. How many things did Basho manage to not be killed by when he was wandering the country back in the 1600s.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:05:49 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  They're called Pokemon. (4+ / 0-)

                        Joking, of course.  

                      •  The Japanese giant hornet (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Audrid, ArkDem14

                        I heard it's as big as your thumb and can spray venom that also contains a pheromone mix that attracts others of its species.  It is also capable of flying up to 50 miles in a single day.

                        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:27:37 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Reading more... (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          gigantomachyusa, ArkDem14

                          a group of 30 of these hornets can annihilate a hive of 30,000 normal bees just so the hornets can snatch the hive's larvae for them to eat.

                          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                          by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:31:43 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  A more surreal story (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          gigantomachyusa, KingofSpades

                          from my friend's experiences teaching in Japan: one day a giant wasp or hornet thing buzzes in through an open window...he described it as just kind of lazily floating around and bumping in to things, but it was massive.  My friend's co-teacher (who was from Japan) instantly runs off to grab something out of a storage closet.  It turns out to look something like a Nerf gun, but more plain.  As he aims it at the bug, my friend sees that it actually has a picture of that hornet on the side of it.  The co-teacher pulled some trigger on it, and a puff of dust or something shoots out at the hornet, hits it, and the hornet just collapses to the ground.

                          Strange day.

                    •  Makes sense (0+ / 0-)

                      given the place of monstrous, giant centipede monsters in Japanese mythology.

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:43:39 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  lol (0+ / 0-)

                The centipedes aren't such a big problem.  When I was living there for 10 years, I saw maybe one a year, and all of them were in the yard, not the house.  Centipedes are definitely widespread though, and everyone there has seen them, but I'd say bites are pretty rare.

                The roaches though...yeah sorry there are tons of them, the big reddish-brown variety.  Those ya just got to get used to if you want to live in Hawaii.

                •  roaches (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike, ArkDem14

                  omg. how on earth do you "get used to" such gross nasty things? when my Irish friend told me there are no cockroaches in Ireland, I was seriously just about ready to pack all my stuff and hop on the next flight to Dublin. I can't do roaches man, I just can't.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:40:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't mind the domesticated ones (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Audrid, gigantomachyusa

                    A terrarium with less than a half dozen Madagascar Hissing Cockroaches are quite tame and lovable.

                    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:51:18 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  It's not easy lol (4+ / 0-)

                    you learn to cope with it.  Make sure all of your food is in completely sealed packages.  That goes for cereal boxes...closing the flaps isn't enough to stop an enterprising roach from forcing his way in.  I just got used to seeing roaches in the kitchen anyway (mostly crumbs on the counter they were going for).  Good news is they're nocturnal for the most part so I just kind of pretended they weren't there in the day.

                    The only time I actually lost my shit was this one night when I saw motion on the screen door (the house was hot so we just used the screen door to allow in breeze).  I got closer, and flipped on the light, and was greeted by maybe 30 roaches crawling around on the outside of the screen, trying to find a way in.  A less-than-manly sound escaped my mouth, and I grabbed the bug spray and started shooting them through the screen.  The next morning the ground outside the door was completely covered in dozens of dead roaches.

                    That only ever happened once.  I never again saw more than a couple roaches together at the same time.  So weird.

                    I spent a few years living in South Carolina too, and there they call them "Palmetto Bugs", and I was like "you're shitting me those are just roaches".  Life has taken me to Denver now and I for the first time, I am living in an apartment that has no roaches.  Guess it's just too dry up here for them.

                    •  That's terrifying (0+ / 0-)

                      Yup.  Some people in North Carolina call them "water bugs"

                      •  Water bugs are roaches that fly (0+ / 0-)

                        And come out of bayous/watery areas. At least that is the Louisiana distinction.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:50:28 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  I will say this once and only once: (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Skaje, Jacques Kallis, ArkDem14

                      along with the humidity, bugs are one of the main reasons that I have hated living in and growing up in the south. I have the body type/genetics (never bothered to find out what the mechanism is other than c02) that causes mosquitoes to love biting me. On time I went on a five day camping trip in the Great Smoky Mountains of Appalachian North Carolina. I came back with over 100 mosquito bites on my legs alone and oh my god how that itched. Never again, as much as I do enjoy backpacking. I'll take California weather over North Carolina any day of the week. Every single summer I went to camp when I was a kid and was miserable for that same reason and I can't walk outside where there's remotely any standing water in the summer in NC. I also highly doubt I could live in Minnesota (aka the land of 10,0000 mosquito nests). I also don't see myself living in DC thanks to the Potomac, which thanks to the mosquitoes and oppressive humidity is probably why more than anything I'd rather teach political science than work on the Hill.

                      That's in sharp contrast to Yosemite National Park which, if you've never been there, is absolutely phenomenal. I could absolutely live in northern California or Colorado both politically and for personal reasons, with Yosemite being a very favorable draw to the Bay Area (it's 7 hours away and probably not that far from Denver (though I've never been there). So obviously my preference on bugs is: less damn mosquitoes, roaches be damned.

                      Take the sunbelt all you want, I'll take feeling like a civilized being over that any day of the week, especially if it's between 60 and 70 degrees and not humid. Berkeley would be an ideal place to live and I really wish I had lived in California when I was applying to colleges (or had it not been 2008 and they hadn't cut off financial aid), because the Bay Area is by leaps and bounds the nicest area of the country in my opinion.

                      •  Yosemite isn't 7 hours away (0+ / 0-)

                        From the South entrance to my hometown in Santa Clara County it's almost exactly 4 hours.  It's closer to 5 if you want to get to Yosemite Valley, but there's no way it is 7.

                        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                        by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:12:47 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Actually, maybe even less (0+ / 0-)

                          Google Maps says Yosemite Valley to San Francisco is almost exactly 4.  Although it's 19 to Denver...

                          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                          politicohen.com
                          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                          by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:14:17 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  You'd hate Singapore then. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        Or, even worse, the primary jungle in Malaysia I've been to for birdwatching.

                    •  good advice (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      ArkDem14

                      since spring is here, I assume roach season is going to start soon, so I probably need to be more diligent about cleaning my apt. last year I bought these little black capsules which contain poison and put them around my kitchen, that seemed to help the roach problem, but I don't want to take any chances. (fwiw, I've also read that the scent of bay leaves repels roaches - an approach I've tried with some amount of success).

                      also holy shit, if your roach story had happened to me right now I'd probably be writing this post from a mental hospital. one of those bastards is enough to make me scream, two or more would be a nightmare, but a whole pack of them? just the thought of it kind of makes me want to start bawling right now.

                      yes, I've heard of Colorado as another roach-free place. I've heard the elevation leads to slightly higher levels of radiation, but honestly if it means no roaches, I think that is a huge selling point for Denver.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 04:39:49 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Why no A/C? (0+ / 0-)

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:50:40 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Most houses in Hawaii don't have them (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        I guess it doesn't get hot enough (it felt plenty hot to me though).  There's also something about the way that houses are built on the island, not a lot of insulation (since it doesn't get cold in the winters), so running A/C might be inefficient.  Most people just let the wind blow through their house.

                        •  I don't like overkill A/C (0+ / 0-)

                          but if the temperature is near 80 or above, I want some A/C. A little light layer of fresh air maybe set at 75 or 74 to keep comfortable, especially at night, when you want to lay undeer your covers.

                          But your story about cockroaches has guaranteed I no longer want to live there.

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:11:59 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  heh (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            ArkDem14

                            I grew up in Hawaii, lived elsewhere for a bit, then came back and spent 10 years there, before moving to Colorado a couple years ago.  Hawaii will always be home for me, but I'm okay with never living there again.  I've found I really do prefer a lower average temperature, and can handle quite a bit of cold in doing so.  Denver has been amazing in that regard.  And I do love having a kitchen that only humans eat from.  More than those two issues though, Hawaii just feels...small.  I feel like I'm entering a bubble every time I go back to visit.  I'm enjoying seeing more of the country, and I think I might very well like to live in New York, DC, or perhaps the Bay Area eventually.

                            I will still keep visiting Hawaii of course, but I don't foresee living there again.

                          •  having lived, albeit briefly, (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            ArkDem14

                            in DC, coming back to Oregon it felt very parochial here, yet DC is in a bubble of its own.  It's hopelessly disconnected from the rest of the country.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:04:00 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I know that feeling (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            ArkDem14

                            Every island is like a bubble, it feels like, and I was just on Oahu.  Sure there are other islands, but they feel so distant.

                            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:15:06 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  New Orleans is one of the most (0+ / 0-)

                            restricted (in a pleasant way though), and somewhat bizarre bubble I've ever been to.

                            I like lower temperatures too.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 11:37:49 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  Louisiana has em bad (0+ / 0-)

                    Northern states apparently don't.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:48:32 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Northern cities get them (0+ / 0-)

                      I had a slight roach problem in my apt in Chicago. and of course New York can get them really bad.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:50:53 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I've seen 1 in Oregon (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        in my 27 years, and it was dead.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:53:11 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  What a lovely state (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          James Allen, sapelcovits

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:06:19 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Its true (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            ArkDem14, sapelcovits

                            come for the cold, foggy beaches.  Stay for the lack of roaches.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:50:39 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  They look pretty, and I like fog (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:52:38 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The only selling point I need (0+ / 0-)

                            is this:

                            No 126 degree temperatures during the summer.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:31:17 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Kauai (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                I spent 5 days in Kauai in 2011 and don't recall any cockroaches or centipeded. Lots and lots of chickens, though.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:06:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I've only visited Kauai once as well (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jeffmd, ArkDem14

                  It's a decidedly different experience from the mostly urban Oahu.  Lots and lots and lots of chickens just roaming freely.

                  •  If I could ask... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Skaje

                    what "must-do" things would say are there on Oahu and Kauai? I'll be on those two islands for a few days in June, and have never been to Hawaii (which will make state number 44)!

                    Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

                    by jeffmd on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:06:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Cool (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jeffmd, sacman701

                      On Kauai, I went to Waimea Canyon, and I highly recommend you do too!  It's breathtaking.

                      As for Oahu...if you're looking for the tourist experience, of course check out Waikiki.  However, my favorite beach on the island is Kailua Beach, up near where Obama hangs out once a year.  That side of the island has the mildest beaches (small waves, very gradual increase in water depth, absence of large rocks on the water's floor, soft sand).  Some people really like doing the rural North Shore experience, but I feel like you're already getting that on Kauai.  Climbing Diamond Head allows a nice view of the island, but might be uncomfortably warm in the summer.  Hanauma Bay was always a pleasure to visit, though crowding is a problem there.

                      Have fun!

    •  America Samoa (0+ / 0-)

      is 1/4 Mormon, and has the only Mormon Samoan "representative", who is a Democrat. I assume Samoa has the Mufi Hannman style of Democrat, but I don't have much info on it either.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:22:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mike Pence- thoughts on his first three months (14+ / 0-)

    I remember as the new year approached, Gov. Mike Pence (R-Indiana) was listed in so many circles as one of the major people to watch on the GOP side for a 2016 run for President. However, his tenure has this far been pretty unremarkable. What seemed to be his only major substantive campaign promise was a 10% cut in the state income tax. However, the State House ignored him, and the State Senate gave him only a 3% cut, which may go away in conference on the budget. Also, the State House committee has passed a bill to require him to negotiate with the Obama Administration on Medicaid expansion. Pence had previously said he would only consider expansion of a small health savings plan account, which has a cap of beneficiaries. It still is a shock to me so far how the GOP dominated General Assembly has went from blind allegiance to Mitch Daniels to a general ignoring of Mike Pence. It might be because Daniels was a well connected insider who knew how to push through things while Pence does not meet that definition. The General Assembly adjourns on April 29. It will be interesting to see if Pence has more of an effect on state government than he has to this point.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:44:26 PM PDT

    •  very very interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, R30A

      keep us posted?

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:14:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wouldn't be surprised (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, R30A, James Allen, JBraden, ArkDem14

      If he just doesn't have the mind for it. Being a top House guy in the GOP doesn't really require a first-class mind, you just have to say the same couple of things over and over again. But actually running a state does take some measure of intellectual firepower, and I think this is a pretty unrebuttable take on the man's abilities there:

      http://thinkprogress.org/...

    •  Pence has little interest in (9+ / 0-)

      state government. I honestly think he just doesn't understand it fully like many legislators do.

      From what I have heard he has had trouble accepting an executive role of working with the two chambers full of differing opinions.

      He also lacks an agenda. I think members general reaction to the tax cut was they thought Pence was proposing something just to have something to propose. Not one member truly believes this is needed or a good idea. The club for growth ads pissed everyone off too.

      Also Pence has been strangely shutting off the media from what I have heard as well, which is not a good strategy either.

      When he came off so uninformed of state issues during the debates it was a clear sign of things to come. Each day I think it less and less likely he seeks a second term. I feel he either runs for President or Senator. I think the smart path would be the Senate.

      •  I think you are correct (0+ / 0-)

        If he knew state government well, he would know that people despise the property tax in the state, not the income tax. If he called for additional property tax cuts, the legislature would find it hard to oppose him.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:02:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Pence in Kokomo (7+ / 0-)

      I thought about bringing this up when it happened, but I never did and it fell to the wayside. Back in late February, when Chrysler made their big economic development announcement for Kokomo, Pence came to visit our town for the event. However, after he went to the press event for Chrysler, he went to my old high school and met with several juniors and seniors who were taking US History, US Government, and Economics. My mom is the AP Government and AP Economics teacher, so she was there when Pence visited. Apparently, he was supposed to be there for an hour and was there to answer questions from students. My mom said he and his group arrived 15 minutes late after stopping at Subway while all the students waited. When he got there, she said he kept telling a lot of anecdotal stories about himself and why he was a Republican, as well as why he pursued public office. When the questioning started, my mom said he seemed like a deer in the headlights and either deflected the questions or went back to tell personal stories about himself. She said he was only there for about half an hour and was itching to get out the door. I wasn't there to see it for myself, but I trust my mom's judgment and the judgment of the two people mentioned in the article whom I'm friends with. Between his debate performances last fall and this appearance at KHS, among many other instances, Pence seems like he doesn't have any lights on upstairs.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:17:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That would have been fun to watch. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid

        Too bad he got tougher questions from the students at Kokomo High School than the press in Indiana.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:59:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good post (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bythesea, LordMike, ArkDem14

      I think leaders in the legislature realize he's a lightweight and unlike Daniels he isn't very popular. It sounds like the legislature is just going to ignore him.

      And I agree with the others who say he doesn't have an agenda besides this tax cut which is obviously going nowhere.
      Plus he did nothing of note over his tenure in Washington, so he clearly doesn't have any skill legislative wise.

  •  National polling: A little shift back to Obama? (6+ / 0-)

    CNN's latest poll today has Obama's approval at 51/47. The last CNN poll from the middle of March had Obama's approval at 47-50.  I noted before the latest national polls
    from Quinnipiac and Marist saw Obama rebounding into positive territory from negative territory in their previous polls.

    I'm sure what CNN will talk about most is that Obama's approval on several issues is underwater, including immigration reform(44-50), and gun control(45-52). It's not clear if the issue here is that people feel he is too liberal on these issues, or they are frustrated nothing has happened yet, in terms of legislation.

    Anyway, I think the overall approval being up, especially since a few other polls confirm that, is good news.  

    link.

    •  probably news cycles (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      When all the news was about the sequester, he looked bad. When the news media move on to something else, his numbers go back to their baseline. 51-47 sounds about right seeing as it was the exact margin of the popular vote in 2012.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:08:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, JBraden, bythesea

        The GOP benefits from having a budget crisis every few months. It pulls down Obama's numbers every time. It may hurt the GOP's standing as well, but that's already pretty bad.

        And national numbers dont matter when they have a pretty good map next year.

        Not to get into policy, but it's why I think a grand bargain would help Obama more politically, and that's why the GOP wont let it happen.

    •  North Korea bump? (0+ / 0-)

      Sort of a rally around the flag moment?  Even though nothing really has happened yet.

  •  PPP tweets that McConnell continues to have (9+ / 0-)

    the worst approvals of any Senator. Full poll tomorrow.

    •  Pretty please let this give ALG the final nudge (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, JBraden, ArkDem14

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:05:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here is a really good facebook page (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, JBraden

        that seems to follow any news on Alison Lundergan Grimes.

        https://www.facebook.com/...

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:14:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  She probably won't jump in until at least May/June (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Right now, all of Kentucky is caught up with U of L in the NCAA tourney. If they win, that will dominate the news in Kentucky for a couple of weeks, which then leads into the Derby time. Next week will dominated by talk of Thunder over Louisville. Then all eyes are on the Derby, which is May 4. And depending on the horse that wins, talk will be about the Preakness on May 18, as Kentucky wants to see a triple crown winner. If the same horse wins both, there will be another three weeks of constant coverage of the Belmont, on June 9. I am sure Alison knows all of this. That means that she would need to probably get in the race sometime in the summer in time for Fancy Farm, which is on August 3 in Graves County.

        I hope she is well organized for Fancy Farm. I am sure McConnell already has the buses ready to head down to the Purchase to heckle her down there. I have been to 12 Fancy Farm picnics. McConnell will have Ed Whitfield (unless he is the emcee) give a general anti-national Democratic Party attack against her. He will likely have Rand Paul deliver another attack. That means she will need to have Steve Beshear and another designee give attacks on McConnell. I hope they put Greg Stumbo to do that. He always delivers a strong speech and will go after Mitch relentlessly. I skipped last year, but if there is a Senate race on, I will do the 4 hour drive down to Graves County. I think you will see several national media figures down there. I remember in 2010 I got to meet Joe Klein. I have a feeling that Howard Fineman may attend this year.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:17:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This sort of thing makes me wonder (0+ / 0-)

      what a poll of OH-08 would look like. The electorate obviously is completely different; take for instance  just the 2006-2012 average which for Kentucky was nearly 52% Dem and for OH-08 was just 39% Dem, but it just seems logical that Boehner can't be leaps and bounds more popular than McConnell when if anything he seems to be more of the public face of the GOP of the two of them. Obviously it's not worth anyone paying for polling there and Boehner will never lose, but I'd seriously like to know how bad his approvals are compared to McConnell's among Republicans/conservative voters.

      It really is a shame we can't get Steve Beshear to run though as McConnell being unpopular doesn't matter when he nukes you with $25 million dollars (that's $4 million per district). I just hope his disapproval continues until election day, because if it's at 36/55 like they're hinting, we do stand a good chance of defeating him. As much as I want ALG to run, I'd feel significantly more comfortable backing Jack Conway for a second run than her. Democratic secretaries of state, or really just secretaries of state in general have a horrible record of performance in senate races despite performing amazingly well in their initial election/reelection and ALG has only been on the job a year and a half.

      •  I hate to say this, but I think (0+ / 0-)

        it's because SoS's tend to be a little meek. It's not the hardest job to get elected too. ALG strikes me as the complete opposite. Hopefully she's tough as nails, because that will be the only way to combate McConnell's $25 million bullshit.

        •  Agreed somewhat, though I wonder if it's just (0+ / 0-)

          the nature of the office itself being relatively non-partisan unless you're Ken Blackwell or Katherine Harris. It seems like it's been pretty easy for Democrats to run up the score, hell Robin Carnahan won MO-07 which hasn't gone Republican since 1958 at least for the house, yet she got slaughtered everywhere Obama did in 2010, even the more conservadem counties and some he actually won last year. She's unfortunately not the only one who tried to move up who performed disastrously. There sadly isn't the same Republican equivalent because Republicans didn't hold all that many secretaries of state offices prior to 2010 for us to test the proposition (this again being an area where political/election science would benefit immensely from 'sandbox mode'."

          •  Isn't the 7th (0+ / 0-)

            Blunt's old district? Carnahan won against Blunt in his home territory?

            Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

            by R30A on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:10:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, she won it as SoS (0+ / 0-)

              She lost everywhere but the 1st and 5th in her Senate race.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:37:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  There is also (0+ / 0-)

            Debra Bowen who ran in for House in CA-36 in 2011 but then again, that may have been more because of Marcy taking votes away.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

            by Alibguy on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:38:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Remember this (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, KingofSpades, JBraden

          She took on a defeated Gov. Steve Beshear's handpicked candidate and appointed incumbent for Secretary of State, who was no fly by night person. Elaine Walker after all was Mayor of the 3rd largest city in the state (yes Bowling Green is now bigger than Owensboro).

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:17:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  SoS is a very low profile job often (0+ / 0-)

        Usually they tend to be in the news only for something controversial like during the lead up or aftermath of a close election or if they are perceived as screwing an election up.  This contrasts to Attorney Generals who get good publicity for winning legal fights or going after criminals, and state Treasurers who can take credit for a good state economy.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 04:03:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Think about all the attorneys general... (0+ / 0-)

        Who have lost Senate races in just the past couple of cycles, though.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 01:05:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And now he's joining the gun control filibuster (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      The republicans don't even want a vote on the background checks measure which polls at something like 80% support.

  •  TPM on Jindal's recent failures: (6+ / 0-)

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:11:32 PM PDT

  •  PVI Project (6+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure if many remembered, but I noted back in February that I was starting a project to calculate the statewide PVI of every state going back to 1960. I thought I'd just say that I finally finished Wyoming last night. I'm currently starting on 1956, and I hope to work my way back to 1932 with the start of the New Deal Coalition. I think there are a lot of different things I can do with all of this raw data, so hopefully I'll be able to produce some interesting findings. I'd also like to look specifically into why certain states had particular swings and trends at given times. At the very least, it could possibly be useful for a class project at some point. :P I'll keep figuring these numbers out, and I'll see where it takes me. I should probably be able to finish this second phase by the end of the month.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:14:04 PM PDT

  •  Alison Lundergan Grimes tour continues (6+ / 0-)

    she was at Morehead State University today. An important area for a Democrat to win in the fall, kind of like Bardstown...

    http://themoreheadnews.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:10:55 PM PDT

    •  If one of her next major trips (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike

      is to somewhere in Western KY, that will be a really strong sign that she is in the race.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:55:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO Dems introducing a bill that would (17+ / 0-)

    create same day voter registration and mail ballots to every voter.

    GOP is not happy about it.

    I liked the comment from Democratic state senator Angela Giron:

    "I don't think it's a Democrat or Republican issue," Giron said. "I think Republicans want voters to vote, too."
    Well.....

    link.

  •  Regarding that study about racial bias (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, askew

    cutting Obama's margins by 4%...

    You know what would be really funny? If white voters are actually trending away from republicans on the strength of young/liberal/college-educated whites, and the two elections with Obama as standard-bearer has just masked that trend. Because if that's true, Republicans don't have a prayer ofwinning the presidency anytime soon.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site