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The oil is expensive to get,
we've not seen the worst of it yet.
sit back in your chair,
I'll try not to scare
the shit out 'choo: no, not just yet.

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the oil companies are spending lots of money
getting oil out of the ground.

Horizontal drilling,

The achievement of desired technical objectives via
horizontal drilling comes at a price. A horizontal well can
cost up to 300 percent more to drill and complete for
production than a vertical well directed to the same target
horizon. Due to its higher cost, horizontal drilling is currently
restricted to situations where vertical wells would not be as
financially successful. In an oil reservoir which has good matrix
permeability in all directions, no gas cap and no water drive,
drilling of horizontal wells would likely be financial folly, since
a vertical well program could achieve a similar recovery of
oil at lower cost. But when low matrix permeability exists in the reservoir rock (especially in the horizontal plane), or when
coning of gas or water can be expected to interfere with full
recovery, horizontal drilling becomes a financially viable or
even preferred option producing 2.5 to 7 times the rate and
reserves of vertical wells. The higher producing rate translates
financially to a higher rate of return on investment for the
horizontal project than would be achieved by a vertical

hydraulic fracturing,

 Hydraulic fracturing is a proven technology used safely for more than 60 years in more than a million wells. It uses water pressure to create fissures in deep underground shale formations that allow oil and natural gas to flow. First used in the 1947,the technology has been continuously improved upon since that time.

Recent innovations combining this technology with horizontal drilling in shale formations has unlocked vast new supplies of natural gas, allowing the nation to get to the energy it needs today, and transforming our energy future.
Find out key facts about hydraulic fracturing in the video below.  

tar sands,

 Tar sands are mined and processed to generate oil similar to oil pumped from conventional oil wells, but extracting oil from tar sands is more complex than conventional oil recovery.  

 After mining, the tar sands are transported to an extraction plant, where a hot water process separates the bitumen from sand, water, and minerals. The separation takes place in separation cells. Hot water is added to the sand, and the resulting slurry is piped to the extraction plant where it is agitated. The combination of hot water and agitation releases bitumen from the oil sand, and causes tiny air bubbles to attach to the bitumen droplets, that float to the top of the separation vessel, where the bitumen can be skimmed off. Further processing removes residual water and solids. The bitumen is then transported and eventually upgraded into synthetic crude oil.

About two tons of tar sands are required to produce one barrel of oil. Roughly 75% of the bitumen can be recovered from sand. After oil extraction, the spent sand and other materials are then returned to the mine, which is eventually reclaimed.  

In-situ production methods are used on bitumen deposits buried too deep for mining to be economically recovered. These techniques include steam injection, solvent injection, and firefloods, in which oxygen is injected and part of the resource burned to provide heat. So far steam injection has been the favoured method. Some of these extraction methods require large amounts of both water and energy (for heating and pumping).  

oil shale,

 Oil shale can be mined and processed to generate oil similar to oil pumped from conventional oil wells; however, extracting oil from oil shale is more complex than conventional oil recovery and currently is more expensive. The oil substances in oil shale are solid and cannot be pumped directly out of the ground. The oil shale must first be mined and then heated to a high temperature (a process called retorting); the resultant liquid must then be separated and collected. An alternative but currently experimental process referred to as in situ retorting involves heating the oil shale while it is still underground, and then pumping the resulting liquid to the surface.  

 While oil shale is found in many places worldwide, by far the largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Estimates of the oil resource in place within the Green River Formation range from 1.2 to 1.8 trillion barrels. Not all resources in place are recoverable; however, even a moderate estimate of 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from oil shale in the Green River Formation is three times greater than the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Present U.S. demand for petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day. If oil shale could be used to meet a quarter of that demand, the estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from the Green River Formation would last for more than 400 years1.

More than 70% of the total oil shale acreage in the Green River Formation, including the richest and thickest oil shale deposits, is under federally owned and managed lands. Thus, the federal government directly controls access to the most commercially attractive portions of the oil shale resource base.  

and oil from coal.

 The results of a two stage process for the conversion of a high  
volatile bituminous coal from Utah to gasoline, diesel oil, gas,
and char are described. In the first stage, coal was hydrogenated
in a bench scale reactor at high temperatures and medium pressures
to get a heavy oil as the main product which was hydrocracked in a
subsequent bench scale operation to produce gasoline and diesel  
oil. The overall material balance indicated that coal can be converted to 30% high octane gasoline, 5% high speed diesel oil, 35%
high B.T.U. gas, and 30% char. A conceptual scheme for the process-
ing of 100 tons of coal is proposed.  

That last document was typed on an old fashioned typewriter.

I learned to type in high school,
in 1971,
before white out was invented,
so that document looks like something familiar to me.

My point in giving you
those links and quotes,
is to give you the basis for my next statement:

In the next ten or twenty years,
the oil companies,
while supplying enough fuels,
but using a combination of those methods in the links and quotes,
since those methods are progressively more expensive,
from the horizontal drilling and fracking already in use,
to the tar sands,
oil shale,
and oil from coal coming later,
each one more expensive than the last,
because of that expense,
the oil companies,
in the next ten or twenty years,
will say to the farmers,
we need ten or twenty dollars a gallon
for the diesel fuel
to fuel the tractors and harvesting machines and farm trucks
used to plant and harvest and move the crops,
the crops used to feed the livestock,
the chickens and hogs and cattle and humans.

And the farmers will say,
if you want to eat any food at all,
you'll just give us the diesel fuel,
for free,
so we can feed America,
and you.

The US Government
will settle the argument,
by giving billions to the oil companies,
so they can keep providing the diesel fuel to the farmers,


The US Government
will settle the argument
by giving billions to the farmers,
so they can buy the high priced diesel fuel,
and feed America.


The US Government
will fix the problem
by giving everyone food stamps,
at least $500 per person,
per month,
so that folks can buy the eggs for $10 a dozen,
milk for $10 a gallon,
and ground beef for $10 a pound.

Some tractors and trucks will convert
to burning natural gas,
but the price of natural gas,
like the price of diesel fuel,
will be going up,
very high,
in the next ten or twenty years.

The next thing that will happen:
there will simply not be enough
diesel and natural gas
to fuel all the tractors and trucks and trains
we have running now.

This will lead to rationing.

Since trains are much more fuel efficient than trucks,
all major links in the transport
of crops from the farms to the customers
will be by train.

Rail spurs will be built to all supermarkets,
since frequent stops reduce the efficiency of trains,
(doesn't it?)
there may be fewer supermarkets,
with bigger shipments,
from rail cars arriving at the back of the store.

Tractor trailer rigs will be greatly reduced in number,
nearly eliminated,
since they squander precious diesel fuel,
needed to plant and harvest and move from the fields,
the crops to feed America.

To save on diesel fuel,
and to save on rail car space,
the following items,
and many more you can think of,
will no longer be shipped to stores:

Bottled water,
convenience foods,
junk food,
frozen food,
disposable diapers
and toilet paper.

Before the seventies,
folks used cotton diapers,
and washed the shit out in the washing machine.

We can do the same with cotton washcloths:
wipe our asses,
and wash the shit out in the washing machine.

if it's more efficient,
we'll stop shipping refrigerated foods,
such as meats,
since rolling refrigeration uses
diesel fuel.

We can eat canned meats;
canned beef,
canned pork,
and canned chicken.

We'll encourage each other to raise livestock,
in our yards,
chickens and ducks at first,
later goats.

So we can eat fresh duck eggs.

I've heard they're delicious,
and very filling,
very rich.

as fuels become more scarce,
folks will be encouraged to produce more foods at home,
at first with feed purchased at feed stores,
and later,
for those with more land,
folks will be encouraged to learn how to feed their own livestock,
from their own land.

maybe tens of millions,
will move from the great southwest,
including southern California,
which is all desert,
to areas with more rainfall.

To grow more feed for their ducks,
so they can eat duck eggs.

In the worst case scenario,
since America is the land of guns,
folks may start shooting each other,
fighting over food,
or land to grow food,
or water to irrigate land to grow food,
(that fighting goes on now)

The two big problems with massive death,
the depressing killing itself,
giving folks PTSD,
and the quirk of human nature,
that makes folks breed like rabbits
when large numbers of them die.

They feel a need to replace those who died.

Fifty million died in WWII,
and folks like my parents did the baby boom;
there were five of us;
that would more than double the population
each generation,
if folks kept doing it.

There was plenty of diesel fuel
when I was a baby,
in the 1950's,
so the baby boom worked out okay.

But if folks do that again,
after the fuels are depleted,
it'll create a cycle of death,
and big families,
and more death.

The only way America can become stable
is to have way less humans living here,
and the reduction in numbers brought about by contraception,
not massive death.

I vote for contraception
to reduce population down to
one percent of what we have now:
not 300 million humans,
not 30 million humans,
but 3 million humans,
in the whole USA.

That should give each family sized group
plenty of land
with plenty of rainfall
to grow plenty of crops
using horses and mules,
crops to feed:
the horses and mules,
the goats,
the hogs,
the ducks,
and the humans.

I wrote about that before:

Future cookout!

 Do you like turnips?
Green beans?
Pinto beans?

Plenty of all that.

Loaves upon loaves of fresh baked bread,
hot every morning,
with lots of real butter.

Speaking of morning,
do you like sausage and eggs?

We could cook lots of that,
on massive griddles,
set up over the hot coals.

Picture everyone working together,
bringing in massive loads of firewood in advance,
carefully stoking the fires,
cooking the sausage,
turning the eggs.

I like mine over easy,
with just enough salt,
no pepper.

For lunch,
do you like turkey sandwiches,
starting the second day?  


let's review:

1.  High diesel prices to farmers,
forcing subsidies.

2.  Diesel and natural gas shortage,
forcing rationing and more use of rail,
less trucks,
and less non-food items.

3.  Folks raising ducks and other livestock,
to feed themselves.

4.  Folks using contraception,
surgical sterilization the best way,
to keep the population
at an easily sustainable level.

Are you ready for your future?

It's gonna come and get you, ready or not!

Thanks for reading.

Originally posted to Readers and Book Lovers on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 02:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by DKOMA and Street Prophets .

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