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9:13 AM PT: MN-02: Well, that was quick. Less than a month after resigning as CEO of CaringBridge in order to run for Congress, Democrat Sona Mehring is dropping her campaign to take on Rep. John Kline and will return to the nonprofit she founded in 1997. Democrats still have another candidate in the race, though, 2012 nominee Mike Obermueller.

9:29 AM PT: NH-Sen: Someone at the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center needs to explain why they sat on their latest poll (PDF) for two weeks. Why do I care? Because UNH was in the field from April 4 to April 9, before GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte cast her now-notorious vote against universal background checks for gun buyers, but they only released their findings after the vote took place, with the headline "Shaheen and Ayotte Remain Popular." Given the huge drop PPP saw for Ayotte's job approvals in the wake of her background check vote, UNH's new/old poll just muddies the waters. And it's a good illustration of why holding back data in this manner is emphatically not a best practice for a public pollster.

10:25 AM PT: LA Mayor: Could things have suddenly turned around so abruptly for City Controller Wendy Greuel? Two weeks ago, SurveyUSA saw her trailing City Councilor Eric Garcetti in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff by 9 points, and last week, the L.A. Times had her back 10. But now SUSA has new numbers showing an enormous 12-point turnaround, putting Greuel up 45-42. How is that possible? The only major change on the ground has been Greuel's decision to go negative, launching a TV ad attacking Garcetti as a self dealer. But news reports said Greuel was "only" spending $350,000 on the spot (with a comparable sum backing a positive ad), which isn't that much in the hyper-expensive L.A. media market.

So this poll could well be an outlier, though SUSA goes to great lengths in its writeup to argue against that possibility. In particular, the firm notes that their toplines on two other races they've asked about, controller and city attorney, have stayed stable, which augurs against what they call a "bad random sample" for the mayoral contest. If this survey is accurate, then this election has seen a truly remarkable reversal of fortune. But I'm going to wait until we see some fresh data from other pollsters before coming to that conclusion.

10:44 AM PT: FL-Gov: I've been skeptical of these "Bill Nelson for governor" rumors ever since they first started popping up a few weeks ago. After all, the guy is 70 years old and just endured a heavy-duty re-election campaign last year, so does he really want to run headlong into Rick Scott's $100 million attack ad vortex at this stage of his career? There's also the fact that a Nelson victory would make a very vulnerable Democratic Senate seat ripe for takeover... and the immediate ramifications may be even worse than you'd expect. In her latest Farm Team installment on Florida Dems, Roll Call's Abby Livingston explains:

If Nelson ran for and won the governor’s mansion in 2014, he would be charged as governor with appointing someone to serve two years as his Senate successor. But there’s some confusion about who would actually make the Senate appointment.

An aide with Florida’s Division of Elections said such a situation would leave a small window of time for Scott to appoint a Republican to the Senate. Democrats say Nelson would appoint his own successor.

Ugh. And even if a hypothetical Gov. Nelson were to name a replacement, that person would have to run in a special election in 2016 for the final two years of Nelson's term and then again in 2018, giving the GOP two bites at this particular apple. While I'll wait until we see some reliable polling on the matter, I don't actually think that Nelson would be a materially better candidate against Scott than ex-Gov. Charlie Crist; if that hunch is correct, then from a party perspective, it would make a lot more sense for Crist to run for governor and Nelson to stay put.

11:01 AM PT: MA-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters is out with yet another poll of the Massachusetts Senate primary from PPP, but it's actually not in direct response to Rep. Stephen Lynch's sketchball claim on Wednesday that he's "only" back six points. That's because PPP went into the field the day before Lynch leaked his vague numbers, though the timing is convenient nevertheless, since this poll is good pushback. PPP has Rep. Ed Markey up 50-36 with under a week to go, little changed from their 49-32 finding in late March. Markey's favorables also remain considerably higher at 66-23, versus 50-32 for Lynch.

11:14 AM PT: Well whaddya know. A spokesman for Nelson just confirmed that the senator is "considering" a run for governor but that he "presently doesn’t have any intention of running." So stick that in your hookah and puff on it.

11:46 AM PT: KY-Sen: Environmental attorney Tom FitzGerald says he's considering a bid against Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell next year, and in the Courier-Journal's phrasing, "he expects to make a decision within the next few weeks." However, FitzGerald also says he's looking to see what Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes does, and she hasn't offered any timetable as yet.


12:06 PM PT: IL-Gov: Former White House chief of staff Bill Daley says he's decide on whether he'll enter Illinois's Democratic gubernatorial primary in the next 60 days. Polls, however, have shown him looking mostly like a third wheel in an expected matchup between state AG Lisa Madigan and incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn, so I'm not sure what sort of path to victory he's envisioning for himself.

12:55 PM PT: HI-01: One of the strangest things about Hawaii's open seat House race in the state's 2nd Congressional District last year was just how little interest it generated among Democratic candidates. After all, it's a safe blue seat that could either elect someone for life or serve as a great stepping-stone to higher office. In the end, only one heavyweight candidate emerged, but thanks to his flaws, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann wound up on the receiving end of a shocking and convincing upset by Tulsi Gabbard, a young city councilor.

So will the same kind of situation unfold in the 1st District, which Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is expected to vacate to run for Senate? Or, given that the 1st is also solidly Democratic, will we see the high level of interest from ambitious office-seekers that typically accompanies such opportunities? It's too early to say, though the previous time the 2nd district was open back in 2006, the Democratic primary attracted half a dozen legislators and one former lieutenant governor (Mazie Hirono, the eventual winner). 2012 may have just been an oddball year.

In any event, Honolulu City Councilman Stanley Chang is the only declared candidate for now. However, HawaiiNewsNow reports that three other Democrats have also expressed interest: Honolulu City Councilman Ikaika Anderson, state Rep. Mark Takai, and State Sen. Will Espero. The same piece (citing no sources) says that Republican Charles Djou, who briefly held this seat after winning a fluke special election in 2010, is "expected" to run but adds that ex-Gov. Linda Lingle, who got trounced by Hirono in last year's Senate race, is "reportedly [not] interested."

1:26 PM PT: FEC: Saying their hands were tied by the Defense of Marriage Act—or more colorfully, that "sometimes the law's an ass"—the Federal Elections Commission ruled that legally married gay couples cannot donate jointly from an individual bank account, something opposite-sex spouses are permitted to do. Hopefully the Supreme Court will strike down DOMA soon, in which case, the FEC made pretty clear, their ruling would change. (The challenge was brought by Republican state Rep. Dan Winslow of Massachusetts, who is currently running for Senate.)

1:57 PM PT: SC-01: Wow! What a raging jagoff! So I'm sure you recall that the other day, Mark Sanford had the brilliant idea to run a full-page newspaper ad filled with an incredibly lengthy and self-serving series of b.s. explanations for why he trespassed at his ex-wife's home, followed by a whole lot of moaning about negative ads being run by Democrats, and capped off with a comparison of his situation to that of the men who defended the Alamo (who, of course, almost all died). In the middle, though, Sanford made this bizarre offer:

The Democrats' ads will tell you none of this, so if you have further questions, go to www.marksanford.com, call me at the campaign office at 843-764-9188, or even on my cell at 843-367-1010.
"Desperate" and "weird" hardly begin to describe it, but one of the groups whose ads Sanford complained about, the House Majority PAC, decided to take him up on it. In post-script to a fundraising email, they reprinted Sanford's cell phone number and suggested that their supporters "[g]ive him a call and ask why he spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on luxury travel." A number of them did just that, so guess what Sanford did in response?

He published the phone numbers of the people who called him. These are ordinary citizens—perhaps a little brasher than average—but I'm sure they had no expectation that their numbers would get printed on Mark Sanford's campaign website. I don't want to even link to the document Sanford originally posted, but here's a redacted version, and to be clear, every black box you see obscures a number that Sanford had no problem reproducing in full:

Redacted version of Mark Sanford's cell phone log
You'll notice that all the numbers are from out-of-state, so I'm guessing Sanford wanted to make some kind of point that no one from South Carolina cared to ring him up—though iPhone users can prune their call logs, so Sanford may have erased any Palmetto State callers. Of course, the more important point is that Mark Sanford is an absolute schmuckface for publicizing the personal information of average Americans who had the temerity to take him up on his offer to talk to him. Sadly, though, that's hardly a surprise. I guess the only real question is, did he ever even answer the phone?

2:11 PM PT: P.S. Republican media buying firm Smart Media Group says that the DCCC has purchased another $176,000 worth of airtime for the final week of the campaign on broadcast TV in the Charleston and Savannah media markets. No independent expenditure report has yet been filed, though.

2:31 PM PT: And elsewhere on the money front, Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch pulled in an impressive $871,000 between Feb. 28 and April 17, according to her newly filed fundraising report. In that time period, she also spent $826,000 but still had $254,000 left on hand. Since the end of the reporting period, she's also raised an additional $85,000 in donations of $1,000 or more, according to her so-called "48 hour" reports. In the same span, Sanford's only taken in $41,000.

2:39 PM PT: SC-Gov: A conservative group backing Gov. Nikki Haley called the Movement Fund is getting an early start on 2014 with a $130,000 ad campaign planned for the first week and a half of May. But methinks another South Carolina election fast coming up on May 7 will consume the local political world, so this timing seems foolish at best. (No, you will not be able to drown out Mark Sanford with six figures of boring positive ads.)

2:45 PM PT: AK-Gov: Attorney Bill Walker, who came in second in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary, announced on Thursday that he plans to try again next year. Walker lost to Gov. Sean Parnell 50-33 in their first face off, but Parnell had only been elevated from the lieutenant governorship a year earlier after Sarah Palin's disappearing act. Now Parnell, who is expected to seek re-election, has a win and a full term under his belt, so Walker will likely have a very tough time making a dent.

2:58 PM PT: VA-St. House: Evandra Thompson, the young Air Force veteran we told you about who's challenging wayward Democratic Delegate Rosalyn Dance in the primary, has just picked up some more establishment support. Four former mayors in Virginia's Tri-Cities region have given their backing to Thompson, including Curtis Harris, who was confidant of Martin Luther King, Jr., and Florence Farley, the first black woman to be elected mayor of a Virginia city.

Meanwhile, Delegate Lionel Spruill, claimed that "100 percent of House Black Caucus members" support Dance and further accused Thompson's chief backer, Delegate Joseph Morrissey, of trying to oust Dance to further his ambitions of one day running for state Senate. For what it's worth, both Morrissey and Dance have denied any interest in seeking a promotion.

3:25 PM PT: TN-Gov: While Republican Gov. Bill Haslam is still a safe bet for re-election, this extremely negative story about his family business seems to be growing legs—and as Chas Sisk at the Tennessean notes, that business played a crucial role in how Haslam sold himself to voters three years ago when he first ran for governor. The stakes are not small. Haslam's brother Jimmy is the CEO of Pilot Flying J, an enormous truck stop chain that was recently raided by the FBI and stands accused of withholding rebates to customers in order to increase its profits. Jimmy Haslam is also owner of the Cleveland Browns, is worth $1.8 billion, and Pilot, reportedly the sixth-largest privately-held company in the country, has annual revenues of $31 billion. So yeah, not small.

Remarkably, Jimmy Haslam isn't taking a defiant stand. If anything, he's almost admitted to the FBI's allegations, saying: "We make mistakes like any company does, but there is absolutely no excuse for that kind of behavior. I don't think I've ever been as embarrassed as I have been since I read the affidavit." Meanwhile, Bill Haslam's always been cagey about his relationship to and ownership stake in Pilot, but that approach is going to grow increasingly untenable as the FBI's investigation proceeds. And while Gov. Haslam's reputation apart from Pilot and Tennessee's Republican-leaning demographics are likely to ensure his political future at home, Sisk suggests that Haslam's hopes of some day joining the national GOP ticket as a vice presidential candidate may already have been badly harmed.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:00:09 AM PDT

  •  Thank you for the comprehensive list (14+ / 0-)

    Of scraps of sanity Mark Sanford has left.

    Seriously though, after his stunt with the Nancy Pelosi standee yesterday I'm pretty sure he's gone off the deep end.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:23:47 AM PDT

  •  FL: Bill Nelson seriously considering a run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    for governor?  The possible complication to keeping his senate seat if he wins.  And Rubio would have to give up running for senate in '16 if he wins the presidential nominaton:

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    Keep the TVA public.

    by Paleo on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:15:05 AM PDT

    •  Can't he appoint someone if he wins? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy
      •  Depends. Rick Scott could appoint (0+ / 0-)

        someone if Nelson resigns before becoming Governor.  It's really not clear.

        One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

        by AUBoy2007 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:29:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why would he do that? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, askew

          Is there some sort of legal requirement to do so?  You resign your senate seat the day after you get inaugurated as governor.  Perhaps there are some legalities that need to be ironed out.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:34:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's the question I think. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            Does he have to resign before becoming governor.  And if so, can Scott make an appointment in the interim.

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:51:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  That's why he'd likely wait (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, pademocrat

          until he could appoint a successor.

          "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:42:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But still appointing a successor (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the successor would need to win the seat, and this is a danger.

            A senate race is always difficult in the purple states (VA, OH and FL), and very few are able to win (see the narrow results of strong politicians like T Kaine or S Brown).

            •  Think about it this way though (5+ / 0-)

              Bill Nelson is very likely to retire by 2018 anyway, thus it'd only be two years early that we have to have the successor's initial election. 2016 is a presidential year where minority turnout in places like Osceola and Orange counties is far higher than it is in midterms (see Grayson, Alan) and I'm of the opinion that I'd much rather be trying to hold the seat for the first time with a two year incumbent in a presidential year than as a purely open seat in a midterm.

              Then you have the fact that I think Nelson makes a better candidate than Crist, having won 3 elections to his one, just in terms of the general electorate. Nelson is quite popular among independents and swing Republicans, it's his numbers with blacks and other Dem base voters who show up as undecided that make his toplines not so hot, but those people clearly show up to vote for him as they did in 2012. Those people also if anything would have the same issues with Crist as they do with Nelson, so what the hell is the difference? That and I just do not like Crist one bit even if he'd probably make a pretty decent governor. We shouldn't be rewarding people for being nakedly opportunistic like that. Either is clearly preferable to Scott though and if Crist picked a rising star like Iorio as his Lt. Gov my opinion of him would improve greatly.

              In general though, I hate that we aren't cultivating future presidential candidates to run in states like Florida (Crist, Nelson) or Virginia (McAullife) when Republicans do a much better job stacking their gubernatorial bench in swing or light blue states. Our one exception is Hickenlooper who I'd love to see run in Hillary's absence or be picked as her VP candidate if she does (aside from the long shot Sherrod Brown candidacy which won't happen).

              •  I see not evidence about a retirement in 2018 (0+ / 0-)

                In the interest of Florida and of the Democratic Party he should run again in 2018.

              •  About the question of future presidential candidat (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I think that the kind of Democrat of states like OH, VA and FL is a little to the right of the candidates that can win national races.

                Also the bench is not as bad, with S Bronw, T Kaine and M Warner. You can like them more or less, but they are in good age and good position for a bid.

                In a little bluer states, also there is a decent bench. Klobuchar, Hickenlooper,...

                But with politicians of the level of H Clinton and J Biden it seems difficult to appreciate the rest of the bench.

      •  yea (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        Florida law allows for governors to appoint senators in the rbrnt of a vacancy, and the appointees have to stand for reelection on the next general election date (which would be 2016 for a January 2015 vacancy). He just has to make his resignation effective the moment he is sworn in as governor to prevent a quick appointment by Scott.

         My money is on Pam Iorio to be the appointee.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:31:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There are some strong Democrats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        he could appoint Kathy Castor to the Senate.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:11:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  How many think that Crist wont jump in? (5+ / 0-)

      He has already pulled an Arlen Spector and become a Democrat.  I thought it was a foregone conclusion he would be running for Governor under the democratic banner.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Ryan Dack on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:48:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  His senate seat is very important for a Democratic (0+ / 0-)

      majority in the senate.

      It is the same case that M Warner. I really hope he run not.

    •  I said this last night (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, JBraden

      we cant really lose with Nelson or Crist. The reason why Nelson is looking at this, is because alot big Dem money figures in the state want him to run. He would be able to appoint his successor if he times his retirement from the Senate right. The only person I can see him appointing is Kathy Castor. She's the only Democrat in Florida's congressional delegation that would be very strong to hold that seat, in a special election, and a regular election right after that. Her name, she's from Tampa, she's a Florida Cracker along with having a southern accent, helps her in Big Bend and JAX. Those attributes certainly helps her.

      Nelson ran for Governor in '90, incumbent Gov. Bob Martinez was not a popular figure. Nelson was a leading candidate, until Lawton Chiles made a surprise entry, and Nelson wind upm getting beat very badly by Lawton Chiles. He lost badly because he did a political gambit that backfired big time. He made an issue of Chiles' age. Chiles had  Quadruple bypass, which led to his retirement in '88, that's the same seat Nelson sits in now.

      That lost in '90 though was a blessing in disguise for Nelson. When people thought his career was over when Chiles gave him a huge helping of humble pie in the primary, Nelson came back 4 years later and became state treasurer, under Lawton Chiles, won reelection the same year Jeb was elected, and ran for senate in 2000.

      He was the chance to be one of Florida's iconic pols, and a revered figure in the state party. Running for Governor and winning would be that exclamation point in his career.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:24:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  KY-House HD-56- Special Election (8+ / 0-)

    http://mycn2.com/...

    Rep. Carl Rollins (D-Midway) is resigning to take a state job. This seat is all of Woodford, and parts of Fayette and Franklin Counties. Rollins only won in 2012 with 53.3%. This will be an opening shot in the race for the state House in 2014. A GOP win would narrow the House to 54-46. The seat voted for Rand Paul with 52.8% in 2010, but Democrats dominated here in the 2011 statewide races. David Williams actually finished third for Governor behind Gatewood Galbraith.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:27:08 AM PDT

    •  Feel good about this one? (0+ / 0-)

      It's pretty Democratic, but apparently changes drastically after redistricting.

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:36:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They GOP may throw a lot of money in here (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, ArkDem14

        It would take their number of seats to win to get the House from 6 to 5, though I think if they can get 48-50 seats, they get party switchers to win the House after election day. There are a lot of the elite people in Kentucky that live in Woodford County, so Dems will probably try to get a candidate to appeal to them. This was about a 57% Romney seat though (which is slightly better than the state as a whole). The side that wins will claim the momentum for the 2014 elections. They will also be testing themes they may think will work in 2014.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:03:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But is the old, Bourbon Kentucky region, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          the capitol region that is much more locally Democratic and pretty deeply enmeshed in the good old boy politics. The better question is how did Ben Chandler do here, and how did Steve Beshear do here?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:04:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Does it include that State Capitol? (0+ / 0-)

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:14:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, the capital is in (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Rep. Derrick Graham (D-Frankfort)'s district.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:54:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There are still quite a few state workers that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, ArkDem14

        live in this district though.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:45:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Should be fairly locally Dem (0+ / 0-)

          then.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:01:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-Gov: Fred DuVal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Is he a good candidate? What type of politician is he (moderate, liberal, and on what issues)? Does he have a good chance at winning next year?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:53:05 AM PDT

  •  My newest diary is out! (6+ / 0-)

    I've written a diary about nonpartisan redistricting in MA, NJ, and PA, as sort of a response to Stephen Wolf's diary.

    Check it out! I hope you like it!

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:04:29 AM PDT

    •  Overall very good maps (6+ / 0-)

      while we're on the subject though, here's my much improved Michigan map:
       photo MIFairMapoverview_zpsb462c629.png
       photo MIFairMapData2012_zpsebd57f98.png

      Mike Rogers is now in the 8th, Tim Walberg gets owned by Whitmer in the 7th, and Gary Peters and Sandy Levin run in the 9th, though it's possible Peters 'carpetbags' to the 11th or Levin just retires. Regardless, we lose a seat and the 7th gets stronger for us without Rogers. Overall the map is 7D-4R-3swing in 2012.

      •  Is there any way (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        that you could get rid of those two townships in Allegan County that are in the 6th? That just seems like a gratuitous and unnecessary extra county split, and I'm not sure if it's allowed under Michigan law.

        Besides that, I really like the map.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:15:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sure, I suppose (0+ / 0-)

          I could add a little more of Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and have the 7th split part of Barry County to its north. It's only something like a few hundred or few thousand people so the impact is incredibly small.

        •  Also my criteria wasn't explicitly to follow (0+ / 0-)

          all of the constitutional quirks of particular states, which is why you saw me redrawing Iowa and many of the court-drawn states. I generally tried to follow them where possible and did so in Iowa with no county splits, but higher deviation, and Washington with transportation links, but I would have done both of those anyway. My criteria was to assume that redistricting law in every state was wiped clean and replaced by a California style commission. However in Michigan I did generally try to not split more than 2 counties per district, but I like to split as few counties when possible and there are only a few thousand people or so in the 6th in Allegan County which is why I guess I originally included them there. Regardless the difference is small, but that was my original reasoning. I drew this part of the map several months ago though with the southeast being a lot more recent.

          This is now one of my favorite maps in the set and I realize that my poll question should have asked just that question, but I usually only include polls to gauge readership, but facebook likes seems to be a stronger indicator as there were about 10 times as many as poll answers.

      •  I like this better than what you had (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        Livingston county fits better with north Oakland county than with Flint. I think Dingell would probably run in 11, leaving 12 open for Lynn Rivers or someone else.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:27:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Or, Gary Peters just runs for Senate. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf
        •  Yes if we passed the map this cycle (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, Jacques Kallis

          which we are fools not to be organizing right now. However my point of departure in my diary was 2012 as that was the redistricting cycle.

          I still think we'd gain 2 seats at least if we forced a mid-decade remap if not 3-4 with Upton looking like he had a glass jaw last year and Camp's seat getting a good deal more Dem. It's also a shame that we couldn't pick off the 1st district (thanks for nothing Bart Stupak!).

          However now I think Ohio should be priority one as we gain 4 seats right off the bat there with a possible 5th if we got a strong challenger to Johnson.

          •  I jsut redrew the 1st (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            down the shores of Lake Michigan and included heavily Democratic Muskogeon county, which made it a Democratic leaning swing district.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:16:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I can't see a commission doing that though (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, WisJohn

              but yes that definitely makes it more Democratic. Ironically I think we'd have won the 2010 version of the district as it was about 2 points more Dem locally and Benishek only won very narrowly.

              •  I did, because it eliminates the state's 2nd (0+ / 0-)

                district, and lumps Ottawa in with the current 6th, while the current third contracts to take in Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids and become rather urban and Democratic leaning/trending.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:00:18 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Is Grand Rapids trending in our direction? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY
                  •  Yes. (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    WisJohn, lordpet8, MichaelNY, pademocrat

                    2000: Michigan +5 Gore
                    Kent County +21 Bush
                    Kalamazoo +.5 Gore

                    2004: Michigan + 3.5 Kerry
                    Kent +18 Bush
                    Kalamazoo + 4 Kerry

                    2008:  Michigan +17 Obama
                    Kent +.5 Obama
                    Kalamazoo +20 Obama

                    2012: Michigan +9.5 Obama
                    Kent +8 Romney
                    Kalamazoo +14 Obama

                    Essentially, making the 3rd a Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo district with a band of heavily Republican suburban territory in between, makes a pretty Democratic district; I made one that gave Obama about 58% of the vote in 2008, and likely still vote for him this time. The Kalamazoo area in it is especially getting to be strong Democratic territory, and in 2012, Obama did not slip in Grand Rapids proper as much as he did in some of the more suburban parts of Kent county.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:43:19 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  My preferred option (0+ / 0-)

                      Is to combine urban Grand Rapids with Muskegon County, which with Berrien is the only reliably Dem county on the eastern shore.

                      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                      by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:15:29 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  western shore* (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        HoosierD42

                        My current map has Muskegon with some other areas to create a tossup district - to be fair, maybe lean Republican - at 55.5% Obama '08 in TPV and 55.2% average Republican (which uses three statewides of 2006: gov., a.g., and s.o.s.).

                        Looking at the way that the 6th and the 2nd trended this election, Obama probably got around 51% in 2012 in the district I drew.

                        I also put Grand Rapids into a district that is 54.6% Obama TPV '08, and looking at the component parts and which way they trended in '12, I'd pin his vote there this year at just above 50%.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:40:52 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

      •  Love (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux

        Love this map if for no other reason that it gives my city, Lansing, it's own district.  There are so many good, progressive candidates, here, that can never make it to Congress because we've been teamed up with the ultra-red, exurban Livingston County.

    •  Also, by request from Stephen Wolf, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      I've added Connecticut to my diary.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:56:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  L.A. Mayor: SurveyUSA has Greuel on top. (9+ / 0-)

    She leads 45-42:

    * Greuel is running much stronger among women, where she now has a 15-point advantage.
    * Greuel is running much stronger among older voters (age 50+): Greuel had trailed by 8 points 1 month ago, on 03/27/13, now leads by 13.
    * Garcetti has lost ground among Latinos, where his double-digit lead has evaporated, and among whites, where his single-digit lead has evaporated.
    * Lower-income voters and Democrats have both moved to Greuel.
    Read the link for more on their "sanity checks" for this "dramatic movement".  Garcetti is up with conservatives and moderates, and with Republicans and independents, but Greuel is up with liberals and Democrats,  and especially with African0Americans (18 points).

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:34:18 AM PDT

    •  Wow, quite the shift (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      They had Garcetti +9 not too long ago.

      Bill Clinton visited recently, maybe that helped. Also, I think Greuel has gone negative in advertising, which might be hurting Garcetti.

      •  They are saying the debate moved the numbers (5+ / 0-)

        This reminds me of SurveyUSA finding Rick Boucher with a comfortable lead in every poll until very late in 2010. All of a sudden Morgan Griffith jumped into the lead from nowhere.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:46:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  How could the debate move the numbers? (3+ / 0-)

             Nobody watched it, and it didn't get that much coverage in the press. I could believe the numbers have moved, but more because of Greuel blanketing the airwaves with adverts. She has a very effective positive spot with endorsements from  Barbara Boxer, Magic Johnson and Dick Riordan (which should help her with women voters, Blacks and Republicans.) She also has a creepy negative spot against Garcetti which seems a bit far-fetched to me but might work.

             Garcetti has not had a lot of presence on TV; I just saw one of his commercials last night for the first time since the primary. His ads are bland and uninteresting.  Meh...

          Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

          by Zack from the SFV on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:33:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Bill Clinton has been campaigning consistently (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, Xenocrypt, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        He didn't just visit recently, he'd been making stops regularly. It's just a volatile race, between two nearly identical candidates. Facile things like advertising and debates have outsized influence.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:50:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm skeptical (0+ / 0-)

        and would like to see confirmation by another poll.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 07:57:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Does someone have a good recap on the (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      policy differences, if any, between them? I just have a very hard time getting interested in mayoral elections when it's two Dems running and neither will ever likely move on to higher office (or be part of our 'bench' per say). Races like Jacksonville mayor are the ones that are exciting to me because Alvin Brown has rising star written all over him. Same with folks like Anthony Foxx (until recently...)

      •  They don't seem very strong. (5+ / 0-)

        See here:

        Voters may complain the candidates are confusingly similar, but on policy priorities and style, the councilman and the city controller revealed some key differences at the hour-long debate at American Jewish University in Bel-Air.

        [...]

        Greuel criticized Garcetti over his recent opposition to the Millennium project, a controversial two-tower development in his district, saying he should have staked out a position sooner and worked with the developer and community. Hollywood development is frequently attacked by Greuel, who accuses Garcetti of bringing "Manhattanization" to the area.

        So, Garcetti opposes the Millenium project...but Greuel opposed it somewhat earlier.  The timing of the opposition.  Then Garcetti attacked Greuel on some shopping area in her district going bust, or something.

        Here's something:

        Besides development, transportation also was a major theme of the debate. While they agreed on the need to fix the streets, Greuel and Garcetti parted ways on a proposed $3 billion bond for street repairs. The City Council is currently considering asking voters to pass the bond to help pay to fix Los Angeles' streets.

        Garcetti said he was open to the proposal, while Greuel suggested the city hasn't done enough to find waste. She wants to cut the salaries of the City Council and the budget by 25 percent, for example, which would raise $6 million annually for street repairs.

        "Before you go to the voters, you have to make sure that you have done everything you possibly can to make sure that Los Angeles is run efficiently," she said.

        But Greuel's claim that her savings could fix Wilshire Boulevard - "$6 million would pave (the) entire Wilshire Boulevard," Greuel told audience members - raised some eyebrows.

        Uh, ok.

        I don't blame you for not getting too invested here.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:56:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hate it when Democrats (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          copy Republicans with bad math and anti-tax rhetoric.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:18:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Zach from the SFV. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        Do you have another answer here?

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:47:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think their biggest difference (7+ / 0-)

            is over who they think should be Mayor   ;-)

               Seriously, there ain't much. I sat through three different debates during the primary and it was more about who would be more effective or independent.  Some people think of Wendy as being more a creature of the city worker unions (especially the DWP utility workers), but Eric is also generally pro-worker. They have different proposals to deal with the city budget, but nothing happens without the support of the city council majority.

              My father and I are for Garcetti, while my mom and her sister are for Greuel. I am OK with either one winning. The real differences are in the races for City Attorney and Controller.  Mike Feuer and Ron Galperin are both much better than their GOP oriented rivals (Trutanich and Zine).

              The most interesting races on the 5/21 ballot  may be the three (!!!) dueling ballot measures on how to regulate medical marijuana dispensaries in L.A. If that is at all close it may cause for extended ganja breaks at the city clerk's office during vote counting (not that the count ever goes quickly in L.A....)

          Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

          by Zack from the SFV on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:46:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  If Garcetti wins, can we say that (11+ / 0-)

      "Garcetti eats Greuel"

      It's in the same vein as "Shumlin smokes Dubie."

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:09:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Garcetti needs to make more calls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux

  •  SC-01: Beaufort Mayor Billy Keyserling (9+ / 0-)

    endorses Elizabeth Colbert Busch:
    https://www.facebook.com/...

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:41:52 AM PDT

  •  How about a Southwest liberal advocacy group? (5+ / 0-)

    I've been thinking for a while about how in certain areas of the Southwestern United States (Utah as a whole, Arizona in half the state) we progressives are somewhat scattered, disunited, and unenthusiastic.

    I'd love to see a cross-Southwest group that can promote progressive politicians (or at least moderate ones), find prospective candidates, promote friendship between state politicians, and strategize to gain public offices, one after another. We can bring attention to progressive issues important to multiple states, and we can contact politicians to convince them to support (or run on) our issues.

    I'd prefer for this to be for low-level, state candidate advocacy, but if we can cross-promote higher-level candidates, that's good too.

    We Southwesterners seem to have a similar culture (even if Utah is lot more Mormon) and mindset, so I think this could work.

    Anything think this could be effective?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:47:11 AM PDT

  •  NH-Sen (5+ / 0-)

    The useful idiots Dayspring and Walsh will be all over that UNH poll.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:49:37 AM PDT

  •  Nice GOP-slanted spin on SC-1 by Lara Brown in (10+ / 0-)

    U. S. News. Here's part of a rather Byzantine argument:
    ==============
    what Democrats don't seem to realize is that their strategy is likely to backfire badly. Aside from setting expectations far above what they're likely to achieve in the midterms, they're hindering their efforts to even reach their goal. By turning Colbert Busch into a Hollywood-connected party "superstar" with a national base of supporters, they'll be forced to raise and spend money on her race in 2014. They'll also find it more difficult to get the media to focus on the competitive seats when they can write a story (and gain more web clicks) about an embattled "celebrity" incumbent.

    By ceding the special election to Colbert Busch, Republicans stand to gain a better 2014 candidate, an "easy" midterm cycle pick-up and an overall weaker opposition. Like punting instead of pursuing a fourth down and one, losing to win is sometimes the smartest play.
    =
    ===============

    Wonder if she'll watch Stephen Colbert Show (sometime in May?) when he does Better Know a District, the Fghtin' SC-1. It's representative is part of a large SC family...

    "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

    by TofG on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:03:04 AM PDT

  •  MN-02 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    I'm pretty sure Mehring is out because she was finding that DFLers in CD2 were still solidly behind Mike Obermueller. All the activity I've been seeing online from activists in that district was in support of Obermueller.

  •  Medicaid Expansions and 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Ezra Klein posted this map from Avalere Health documenting states' Medicaid decisions for 2013.

    In short, 20 states, and possibly 4 more, will expand next year. Ohio is listed as "lean no" but the legislature has given some wiggle-room to possibly make a decision to expand this fall. MT - which only accidentally rejected it - will probably accept for 2015. The holdouts are what you would expect - most of the South and plains states, and states where Republicans control the governorship and/or state legislatures.

    Now, I suspect that eventually all or nearly all states will accept the Medicaid funds, though it'll probably take several years. GOP opposition to ACA is only slowly cracking, and Tea Party-influenced state legislators are often even more anti-expansion than governors or party leaders - witness the difficulties getting expansion passed in OH and FL, despite the high-profile support from Scott and Kasich.

    So... my question is, how do you think 2014 (and 2013) will affect this? We have good odds of taking some of these governorships - PA, MI, FL, VA, ME. But how effective will they be getting expansion through GOP-controlled legislatures? And where do we have good odds of winning back one or both chambers?

    •  Of that list, ME will probably be the quickest (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, JBraden

      to expand. They have a Dem legislature, and if LePage loses, then I think expansion could be enacted quickly.

      Of the states that have already accepted expansion, North Dakota really stands out. The only state on the list with a GOP governor and GOP legislature. A bill expanding Medicaid has already been passed and signed. Very surprising.

      I think like the original Medicaid program, it will take a while for all states to sign on, but eventually it will happen.

      The quickest route might be if Obamacare's implementation goes smootly, and a Republican is elected president in 2016.

      •  Arizona too (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY, JBraden

        Some states will probably expand in 2015, using the Arkansas approach.

        Wisconsin also deserves an asterisk. WI Medicaid already covers everyone under 100% of FPL, so Walker has pushed for pushing the rest (those between 100-133% of FPL) onto the exchanges. They'll end up getting universal coverage, but it'll be more expensive for the state than if they just accepted the Medicaid funds.

  •  Bush Presidential Library Opened today (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, jj32, bumiputera, MichaelNY

    All the former presidents met up for the ceremony.

    https://www.facebook.com/...

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:30:48 AM PDT

    •  Stick a fork in him, Lynch is done. (5+ / 0-)

      Say hello to Senator Markey everybody. I wonder how many members with greater seniority than he have successfully run for senate.

      •  None! (8+ / 0-)

        Current record holder is Frederick Gillett at 32 yrs, but Markey has an extra 5 years on him. (Though Gillett maybe gets some bonus points for being Speaker when he was promoted.)

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

        by David Jarman on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:19:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gillett was also from Mass., if memory serves (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JohnnyBoston, MichaelNY

          Took over for Champ Clark after Democrats lost the House.

        •  Wow that makes zero sense (5+ / 0-)

          I get why Markey, who probably thinks we'll be in the minority for a long time and he's getting up their in age, wants to serve in the senate majority. But why the hell would you go from Speaker of the House to a junior senator? It isn't like speakers were incredibly weak then either.

          •  Actually, the speaker was pretty weak then (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, bumiputera, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            At its lowest ebb, probably. Gillett served for a few years during the late 1910s and early 1920s, i.e. very shortly after the Cannon revolt that prompted the House to take away much of the power of the speakership. It wouldn't be restored for some decades to come, at least until Rayburn, and arguably not until Jim Wright, who used power (particularly through Rules and procedurally) more aggressively than any speaker since Cannon. Not even Pelosi was as aggressive, though wisely since it led directly to Wright's downfall. Meanwhile, the Senate was entirely a different animal pre-LBJ. Much easier for individual senators to gum up the works, since there weren't unanimous consent agreements. In the context of the times, it makes some sense.

            Sort of like how Aaron Burr left the U.S. Senate to hold a seat in the New York State Assembly. Nowadays, that would be seen as an insane move. But Burr wanted to actually do things, and that wasn't happening in the Senate. So he had a short but successful career in state politics before becoming Vice President.

            •  Interesting I never knew that about Wright (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I knew he was sorta a compromise candidate when he ran for majority leader. Tip O'Neill was hoping that Phillip Burton wouldn't win the election. In the end Wright one by a hair (one vote) over Burton.

              In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

              by lordpet8 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:16:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He was a compromise candidate (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                And he was a loyal, quiet foot soldier during that whole time. People expected him to be very much like O'Neill as speaker, if a bit less of a voluble and press-seeking. Little did they expect what he was: a man with an expansive vision of the speakership as being a position from which to govern, almost like a prime minister. He picked fights, passed ambitious legislation, and pushed into every area of policy imaginable, including foreign policy. He actually won a lot of impressive victories. Then he lost it all after making too many enemies.

                I'd definitely recommend The Ambition And The Power, about his speakership. A young Newt Gingrich is Wright's main foil in the book.

      •  Maybe because of the 2010 special (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux

        I'm still nervous about the general.

        None of the GOP candidates is a some dude really, I mean, they all seem like decent candidates on paper.

        But I dont think Markey will run a Coakley campaign, and I dont think any of the GOP candidate is a strong as Scott Brown was. Plus, the political climate came together in a way that really helped Brown.

        Still, I'll be worried about a Markey loss until they count all the votes.

  •  How long does it take for minorities to push for (5+ / 0-)

    political power? I'm wondering, because here in Utah, there's been a small, but strong Polynesian minority for 30-40 years, but there hasn't been any really influential advocates for that community. Similarly, we've had two populations of ethnic refugees; refugees who have come here in the last decade, and refugees who have been here since the 90s. Neither have any political power, and there haven't been any politicians or even lobbyists for/from those communities.

    I'm surprised that none of these groups have any influence.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:57:25 AM PDT

    •  Two problems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      First, they're obviously just plain disinterested.  That's too bad.  But nothing can overcome that if someone can't persuade them to become interested.

      Second, you said "small," and that's a problem unless the group has a lot of money.  Jews have always had good influence in U.S. politics because of economic success and the political power that necessarily attaches to it.  Same for gays lately, gay rights is advancing fast because gays are not just acting openly as a group, but they are by-and-large high income.  My Indian-American community is disproportionately high income and over time probably will make advances out of proportion to our numbers because of it.

      Money talks in America.

      I don't know anything about Polynesians, but they need to start caring, and if they also have some money, that helps.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:14:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        Utah Polynesians and the Utah refugees tend to be rather poor, even after generations of being here.

        It's a shame though, I'd really love to see a Polynesian Congressman or state senator or whatever.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:45:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen (19+ / 0-)

    To start with, this from David yesterday:

    This race is happening, and it's going to unfold however it unfolds, and none of our personal preferences are going to matter one whit, unless someone has a million bucks and a super PAC we don't already know about. Let's analyze this race bloodlessly, like sophisticated horserace analysts, because that is how we add value.
    So let's try to steer it away from whether Hanabusa is right or wrong to run, and away from racial accusations either way.  This race is happening.  How do we think the election will break down?

    First, some misconceptions.  There is a strong idea that Japanese-Americans in Hawaii dominate the process.  Perhaps part of that is my fault for mentioning them as being so powerful over the years on SSP and DKE.  That is not fully true.  They are indeed a very strong voting group, and are much more influential than their numbers would suggest.  They are about 14% of the population, with another few percent maybe that are mixed-Japanese, though I would expect there to be a strong age correlation to that, with intermarriage being a much more recent thing for Japanese in Hawaii.

    You'll notice I sometimes alternate between saying Japanese-Americans, those of Japanese ancestry, or sometimes simply just Japanese.  I do the former two mostly for the national audience on DKE, conforming to accepted standards (obviously I wouldn't call Rep. Henry Cuellar just "Mexican", he is Mexican-American, or of Mexican ancestry).  But in Hawaii, the sheer amount of different ethnicities has led to it being acceptable and standard to actually just refer to people as being Japanese, Filipino, Chinese, Portuguese, etc. despite them obviously being citizens of America living in Hawaii.  So please don't take offense to the shortened verbage, it's just standard in Hawaii.

    But anyway, they do have an outsized role in Hawaii politics, and you can confirm that to yourself by just taking a look at the state senators, state representatives, and city councilors.  But they aren't the whole party.  People used to ask me a lot on SSP and DKE about the "Asian vote" in Hawaii, and it was always kind of a strange question to me because there really is no such thing, any more than there is a "Hispanic vote" in Florida.  I'll just go ahead and break down the table I linked earlier, but I'm going to put two numbers, the first one is those of one race alone, the second number is the total amount of people claiming that ethnicity, thus putting the mixed-race people back into the pool:

    Asian: 39% (57%)
    White: 25% (42%)
    Mixed: 25% (N/A)
    Pacific Islander: 10% (26%)

    Additionally, 9% of the population describes themselves as Hispanic, though with the way the Census works, that always puts the total over 100%.

    The Asian group breaks down as follows:

    Filipino: 15% (23%)
    Japanese: 14%
    Chinese: 4% (~33%)
    Korean: 2%
    Other: 4%

    So as you can see from that, the Pacific Islander population is very, very mixed, with there being many more people of part-Pacific Islander heritage than of pure.  But even the Asian and white populations are heavily mixed, with a significant percentage of both groups identifying as mixed-race.  The mixed-white group (known locally as hapa-haole) goes way back and it's very common to see marriages in Hawaii where both people have some white ancestry, but not full.  The Japanese, as mentioned above, have been relatively reluctant to intermarry until the past few decades, and I have not met anyone in Hawaii who was less than 50% Japanese.  I have on the other hand met many, many people who were 1/8 or 1/16 Chinese or Filipino, both of whom intermarried quickly upon arriving in Hawaii in the late 1800s, and their overall statistics bear that out, particularly with the Chinese, who are few by pure ancestry, but one of the largest groups by part.

    I have also neglected to mention the Portuguese, who were another part of the late 1800s immigrants to Hawaii, and have mixed thoroughly through the population since.  In Hawaii, the Portuguese do not identify as white, nor as Hispanic or anything else.  They identify as Portuguese, seeing themselves as another separate ethnicity just as the others do.  They're about 4% alone, but countless more by part ancestry in Hawaii.  And I should not discount the presence of African-Americans in Hawaii either.  Though proportionally small (just 3%) they are here and they do vote as well.

    Excuse my rambling again about Hawaii's demographics, but I did want to give a more accurate background of the state.  Every single ethnicity is a minority, and has a varying amount of its total numbers mixed-race, and no analysis of Hawaii's demographics can be accurate without acknowledging this.  No group can win based on the strength of their ethnicity alone.  Every winning candidate needs at least some coalition.

    And this is why Colleen Hanabusa, to win, will need more than "the Japanese vote".  In the same way, Brian Schatz will need more than "the white vote".  Both candidates will have to run aggressive, non-race based campaigns designed to appeal to as many people as possible.  A much more interesting aspect to me is how the parties will break down.  Hawaii has open primaries and tons of Republicans and independents vote in the Democratic ones.  Ed Case aggressively courted non-Democrats in his 2006 primary, and the comically low numbers in the GOP primary that year show that.  Who will these voters go for next year?  Despite our arguing over whether Hanabusa is less liberal or the same, Hawaii voters see Hanabusa is a standard liberal politician, and she will not have the Ed Case voters automatically behind her.  But it wasn't just moderation that drew the Ed Case crowd, it was also his independence from the Dem machine.  Both candidates can make their own claims of independence from that.

    And as I mentioned last night, there is also the Obama factor.  Schatz was the earliest Obama booster in Hawaii, and eventually became spokesman of his Hawaii campaign.  Hanabusa on the other hand served the equivalent role for Hillary Clinton.  I really, really don't want to restart that war, but the fact is an Obama endorsement trumps that of either Clinton endorsement in Hawaii, and Schatz will run aggressively on his ties to Obama.

    I expect Hanabusa will fight back by accentuating her record of success in the Hawaii legislature, and contrasting that with Schatz's admittedly few accomplishments in his four months as senator.  The challenge for Schatz will be to actually rack up some in the next year and a half, to better make the claim that he is best positioned to become the next powerful, longtime Hawaii senator.

    As silly as it might seem, that's actually one of the most important issues to Hawaii voters, that of who can bring the most pork home.  We share many similarities to Alaska in that regard, and I'm not particularly proud of that.  In Hawaii's case, a lot of it is military spending, and Hanabusa will try to make the argument that she is better suited to continuing and expanding that, as Inouye was.  Schatz will have to be careful about coming across as being against such spending.

    Anyway, this post is running too long as it is.  If the election were held today, I think Hanabusa might win by 10 points or so.  But I do suspect that Schatz will turn that around by September of next year.  I expect him to outspend her, to benefit more from incumbency by next year, and for his associations with Obama to pay off as he campaigns.  I truly do think Schatz is going to win, and fairly comfortably.  I don't say that as a Schatz fanboy (I have not hidden my preference here), that really is my opinion, as unbiased as any of us can reasonably hope to be.

    •  Also, HI-01 (7+ / 0-)

      A lot of you are asking who is going to run, and I finally have same actual names being floated by the Honolulu Star Advertiser.  Their stupid website is subscription only, but I got this from my parents back in Hawaii:

      City Councilman Stanley Chang
      Mufi Hannemann
      Charles Djou
      Ed Case
      State Representative Mark Takai
      City Councilman Ikaika Anderson
      State Senator Will Espero

      Aside from Chang (announced), and the loser's trio of Hannemann, Djou, and Case, let's take a look at these guys.  Mark Takai was my state rep back in Hawaii, I met him a couple times...he's okay, nothing too special.  Ikaika Anderson comes from a strong political family.  He might be a strong candidate, and is on his off-year so wouldn't have to forego re-election.  But before his special election victory in 2009, he lost the same state House seat twice in the primary when it was open both times.  Will Espero voted against civil unions and is a complete non-starter.  Fortunately, I don't see him as a formidable candidate.  He hasn't been too visible in the legislature.

      So...yeah.  A shitty list so far, and completely devoid of women.  Hopefully others are in the mix.

      •  Civil Beat had a more comprehensive line up. (5+ / 0-)
        Ed Case, Mufi Hannemann and Charles Djou should be included as contenders, however, though each has performed poorly in recent elections.

        (Technically, Case lives in the 2nd District and formerly held the seat; but he's also lived in the first and has run for that seat, too.)

        Besides Chang, the only other name from the City Council being bandied about at this point is Ikaika Anderson. Mayor Kirk Caldwell has been interested in Congress, but it seems like he'd want to hang on to his current gig. (See: Hannemann, Mufi; and Fasi, Frank.)

        There are perhaps a dozen people in the Legislature who could be contenders, and we will list the most obvious ones that come to mind:

        • Sens. Donna Mercado Kim, Will Espero, Brickwood Galuteria, Donovan Dela Cruz, Clayton Hee, Jill Tokuda and Laura Thielen. All are Democrats.

        • Reps. Mark Takai, Sharon Har and John Mizuno. All are Democrats.

        http://www.civilbeat.com/...
        •  Thank you for that (6+ / 0-)

          I keep forgetting there's more than one news site in Hawaii!  Let me run down those names...

          Donna Mercado Kim just got elevated to Senate president, and seems to me to be a lifer for state politics.  She's been in continuous elected office in Hawaii since 1982, and you rarely see people that like try to make the jump to federal office at the ends of their careers.

          Brickwood Galuteria was one of my mentions, and like I said he's fairly powerful within the party, used to be party chair, and took office via knocking off a strong GOP incumbent senator in 2008.  If he got in, he'd raise a ton of money, and I think he might be the strongest candidate on the list.

          Donovan Dela Cruz, like Espero, voted against civil unions.  I'd really hate to see him be a serious contender.  Luckily's he's from outside the district.  Though that doesn't stop anyone in Hawaii, it does put him at a disadvantage.

          Clayton Hee is not a strong candidate.  He performed the weakest of any Senate Dem last year against a very conservative opponent, and he has a polarizing reputation.  Like Dela Cruz, he's also outside the district.

          Jill Tokuda was my early fave to run for HI-02 last year, but she ended up sitting that one out.  She is outside the district as well, but I would be happy to see her run.

          Laura Thielen just ran her first election last year.  Though performing impressively (knocking off the incumbent Dem in the primary and then crushing the comeback attempt of GOP former Sen. Fred Hemmings), she is a recent entrant to the Democratic Party, and would face massive opposition from the party apparatus, as she did while running for state senator.  I think she stays put for the moment.

          Sharon Har could be an interesting candidate.  I don't know much about her, beyond the fact that she demolished a powerful, longtime GOP state rep in 2006 to win her seat in an upset.  However, she voted against civil unions.

          John Mizuno also voted against civil unions, and he had this giant, perennial sign that was up at an intersection I drove through all the time that I started to hate.  Other than that, haven't kept up with his career.  I don't see him as a serious candidate.

          •  I wanted Jill Tokuda to run as well. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            She's pretty well connected to Hirono.

          •  Anderson & Takai (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Gygaxian

            Didn't Mark Takai also vote against civil unions? Such a vote for me is a non-starter, but what are your thoughts on him and his overall viability? Or of Will Espero's? I do agree with you though about Jill Tokuda. I really like her and I hope she'll consider jumping into this race. And since EMILY's List seems to love getting involved in Hawaiian elections lately, I know they've endorsed Tokuda before as of their POP candidates.

            And what of Ikaika Anderson? From the little that I know of him, he's young and his family has been active in state politics. Where is he on the ideological spectrum?

            28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

            by BluntDiplomat on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 04:18:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh damn (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, BluntDiplomat

              apparently Takai did vote against.  That's shameful.  He was absent for the first vote when Lingle was still governor, but claimed at the time he supported civil unions.  Wtf?

              As for his viability, he's seemed to be kind of a back-bencher in the state House, despite being there for almost 20 years now.  I don't think he would start out at the head of the pack, or even near it.

              Will Espero is a stronger candidate.  He openly considered running for HI-01 in 2010 and only declined when it was clear Hanabusa and Case were descending upon it, and he would be destined for fourth place.  Out of the bunch, I think Espero is one of the most likely to run.  Hopefully stronger candidates emerge to beat him.  If it turns into a repeat of HI-02 last year though, Espero could easily win.

              Ikaika Anderson had a couple painful early losses, but now he's pretty visible on the city council.  He was just re-elected, so I see him as also very likely to make a bid, as it's a free shot.  I don't know much about his politics, as is common with city councilors who aren't pressed on issues.

          •  Where does Galuteria (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            stand on the ideological spectrum?

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:14:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Here's my opinion. (5+ / 0-)

      I think you touched on it a little. Obviously, I have no say whatsoever what goes on here.

      I think Hawaii would be better off if Schatz won. He is what? 40, IIRC? He could easily serve for another 40-50 years, and be the next long-term Senator from Hawaii. Hanabusa is 61, and could only serve for a maximum of ~30 years.

      I do believe that Abercrombie should have honored Inouye's wishes, and appointed Hanabusa. While I understand that Abercrombie has his own brain, and Inouye's choice was a wish, not a command, I am a believer in honoring the wishes of dying people, out of respect.

      In the long run, though, I believe Hawaii will be better served if Schatz wins.

      I don't really have a dog in this fight. I like each candidate for the reasons above (Schatz=seniority, Hanabusa=Inouye's wish). Right now, I would lean Schatz.

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:35:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hanabusa would have been smarter politically (7+ / 0-)

        Abercrombie pissed off some number of people at a time when he didn't have very much political capital to spend. Then again, Schatz is already in, and I see no valid reason to kick him out now. My guess is that he wins the primary, given strong funding from environmental groups, the age argument, and perception of entitlement from Hanabusa. I mean, Hanabusa hasn't exactly had blow-out wins in a very safe seat, so there's no reason to assume she'll be some sort of incumbent-primarying dynamo.

        •  I did want to talk about Hanabusa's elections (4+ / 0-)

          Following her 9-point victory over retread candidate Charles Djou last year, while Obama dominated by 41 points the same day, a lot of people took to calling her an underperformer.  And just judging by that, it was the biggest fall off between Obama and a Dem congressional incumbent that year.  But there are unique factors at play.  One only needs to look at 2004 to realize that Obama's numbers in Hawaii are massive overperformances, and not representative of previous Dem strength in the state, particularly in the 1st district which has always been more prone to electing Republicans.

          Others commented on the fact that Hanabusa barely did much better than she did in her 2010 victory, despite the GOP wave of that year.  And the more I look at it, I realize that the GOP wave simply didn't hit Hawaii that year.  The wave was in large part due to dissatisfaction with Obama's early tenure.  But in Hawaii, support for Obama never wavered, and looking back on it I shouldn't be surprised that Abercrombie destroyed Duke Aiona that year.  There just was no GOP wave to help Republicans in Hawaii.  The results in the state legislature also bear that out.

          So with that in mind, 2010 and 2012 really are comparable, and what we saw was a common pattern with repeat candidates: Hanabusa beat Djou again, but only by a slightly greater amount.  The same voters who voted Djou in 2010 mostly voted for him again in 2012, and it's not reasonable for us to have expected Hanabusa to beat him by 20+ points.  Djou was a very strong politician, and unlike Lingle, he maintained his popularity.

          A more relevant criticism of Hanabusa's performance might be that she only beat Ed Case in the special election by 3%, despite a lot of Case's natural voters (Republicans and independents) being siphoned away by Djou.  I knew Hanabusa was going to come in 2nd, contrary to what the DCCC thought, but I did think she would put Case a bit further back.

          •  If you're right, explain this (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "particularly in the 1st district which has always been more prone to electing Republicans."

            Abercrombie held it for nearly twenty years, and only dropped below 60% twice: in 1994 and 1996. He initially won the seat with 60% and it seems like he routinely held it in the mid sixties. Hanabusa has not come close to that. Considering that Abercrombie hasn't exactly showed extreme political aptitude as governor, this is worth mentioning.

            •  It elected Rep. Pat Saiki (R) (6+ / 0-)

              from 1986 to 1990.  Most of the GOP state legislators are within HI-01 as opposed to HI-02.  The presidential numbers show that HI-02 is a few points bluer, but on the local level it is more pronounced.

              And you're not giving Abercrombie enough credit.  He dealt with the same kind of budget problems as every other governor did in 2011, and while his approval rating suffered early, it has recovered (well, if you trust Hawaii polling).  I don't know where people are getting the idea that he's been a weak governor or politician in general.

          •  That's a really interesting analysis (0+ / 0-)

            Thanks for that.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:24:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Japanese Politics (5+ / 0-)

    Don't have time to sum all this up as nicely as some folks, like Setsuna might. But basically, Abe is turning out exactly as I feared:

    http://www.csmonitor.com/...

    He's an jingoistic nationalist, and he's getting the political capital to act on that nature of his. Truthfully, the only reason he's been able to accomplish so much is because the LDP has more discipline and strict hierachy than the hogde-podge, pluralistic JDP, and they came into office with a mandate to lead, after the JDP's astonishing failure as a major governing political party, years of failure and instability and inability to enact the reforms they campaigned on.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:24:37 AM PDT

    •  Then again (5+ / 0-)

      He's already managed to turn twenty years of failed Japanese economic policy on its ear. He's already made a central bank appointment that aggressively favors monetary expansion, which will be an enormous shift with huge global implications.

      No doubt he's a lousy nationalist, but he's no austerian.

      •  Promoting loose monetary policies (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inoljt, MichaelNY

        and economic stimulus is almost a polar opposite of Friedman economics that conservatives hold so holy.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:00:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  US/European Conservatives, yes (6+ / 0-)

          But in the rest of the world, not always. And in many countries, right-wing cultural politics meld with populist economics quite nicely. Definitely is true of the National Front in France, which is still nearly fascist but is well to the left economically of whatever the French center-right goes by today.

          In the case of Abe, I've read that his hatred of the economics profession and the unending Japanese slump are what's made him adopt a policy at odds that has had buy-in from all major parties for decades. Not so sure his reasons are right, but it's the right policy, and it's not as though they have anything to lose.

        •  Friedman (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, bumiputera, jncca, MichaelNY

          He had no problem with loose monetary policy when he thought it was justified. One of the main points he made in his "Monetary History of the US" is that the Fed's tight money policy was disastrous and made the Depression a lot worse.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:16:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This is correct (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

            I thought he was talking about Tom Friedman for some reason. But Milton Friedman was of course the godfather of monetarism, beloved by Thatcherites and Reaganites alike. We didn't have to do fiscal stimulus, just manipulate the money supply! Now, of course, their descendants want to bring back the gold standard and otherwise do nothing.

            •  But Friedman promoted (0+ / 0-)

              tight monettary policy in cases of extended stagnation and large deficits, did he not?

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 04:57:45 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I know (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        most people who actually vote in Japan don't care, but thanks to Abe the yen is depreciating rapidly, which screws over me (and all other foreign immigrants) pretty badly since now our money is worth less back at home. used to be like 80 yen to a dollar, now it's almost exactly 100. also Abe has the dumbest foreign policy I've ever seen.

        "hey Korea and China, North Korea is looking pretty crazy right now - so how about I argue with you over a bunch of uninhabited islands then let half my cabinet pay homage to WWII generals who massacred your people?"

        yeahh no. thanks for playing, see you next time. at least since this is Japan we'll probably have a new PM before long.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 04:13:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The islands are important for oil (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          shipping, and fishing reasons, claims of ocean territory as I understand it. And China is trying its best to be provactive while playing the victim like it always does.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:18:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Japan's most odious Prime Minister since 1945 is also the one with by far the longest tenure.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:19:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wasn't driving down the yen the point? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          I mean, yes expats get screwed over (then again, worrying about expats isn't high on the agenda of any East Asian country), but since it's an export-driven economy, a depreciated currency would (or should) help get the economy out of its austerity-driven malaise. Hence all this talk about China's artificial depreciation and South Korea's absurdly high exchange rate.

          Then again, Japanese politics is weird. Teachers often refuse to sing the national anthem because of its imperialist past, and  the governor of Tokyo and the mayor of Osaka are (or were?) ultra-right wing.

          Isn't there also severe malapportionment too?

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

          by kurykh on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:23:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yes, it was the point (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            and yes I know expats weren't high on the agenda. but it's something that affects me and all of my expat friends negatively.

            mayor of Osaka is indeed a right-wing nutjob and I believe has sacked (tried to sack?) teachers over not singing the national anthem.

            re: malapportionment, that's in court right now, I believe the results of the last election have been struck down by several courts now.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:38:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  It is so frustrating (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      uclabruin18, MichaelNY

      seeing that stupid war memorial coming up again and again in the news year after year.  Why does it even exist?  Why do Japanese politicians have to go to that specific one?  Is there no neutral memorial they can go to instead, that honors the dead who weren't convicted of war crimes?  Germany has avoided these issues, why can't Japan?

      Of all the issues to sour relationships between countries, I can't believe something as stupid and trivial as visiting a war memorial is one of them.

      •  Asian cultures are big on symbolism (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and sublety, small gestures are carefully thought out in big scenes like this, and represent a lot or can be taken to. In this case, it definitely represents the jingoist take of the LDP that wants to rewrite Japan's truly admirable Article 9 that bans all non-defense military actions as illegal, and which was, contrary to LDP propaganda, written and campaigned for by Japanese during the occupation; it was not unilaterally imposed by the U.S. military.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:03:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  welcome to Japan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the country where the mayor of the fourth-largest city denies a massacre that his country committed against his Chinese sister city to the sister city mayor's face...

        ...and then gets re-elected!

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 04:16:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You talking about the Nanjing (0+ / 0-)

          massacre? That topic came up in an East Asian political survey I took a few years ago. We had two really distinguished Professor teaching it. One was a Sinologist, the other a veteran Professor of Japanese studies. Both Americans though, and open-minded, very academic.

          They ended up agreeing that the traditional Chinese statistics for the Nanjing massacre are questionable, highly questionable, and agreed with more recent scholarship that puts the death toll between 80-100 thousand, and also somewhat takes into account the fact that the Kuomintang organized a plain clothes, partisan resistance that led to the Japanese simply shooting down many civilians in the crossfire.

          Not to mention it's been a politicized vehicle for Chinese communist nationalism and the political goals of the Chinese communist party, which has pushed a certain narrative, of victimhood and evil Japanese, that isn't objective or fair either. Not defending the Japanese actions there, which were attrocious and violent, but neither side in that case is clearly right or wrong, and both have subjective nationalist tints.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:26:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This really sounds like arguing about Holocaust (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, Skaje, Audrid

            figures. When you're talking about tens of thousands or close to 100,000 civilians shot dead, that's a massacre, regardless of what else it is. And that's the fallacy of the Holocaust deniers who claim "only" a few hundred thousand Jews were murdered - that still would have been genocidal.

            Naturally, estimates of the death toll are important to historians, but these kinds of grisly figures can never be seized upon legitimately by Japanese nationalists to try to argue no massacre was committed.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:32:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Holocaust (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, ArkDem14

              Most discussions of the Holocaust ignore that Jews were not the sole victims [but were the main ones]  Gypsies especially, may have been decimated much more in terms of proportion of population.

              •  Yes, I agree (0+ / 0-)

                And I think it is very important to focus on all the murder victims and enslaved people. However, the Holocaust deniers also are usually focusing on denying that the Nazis tried to wipe out the Jews (though, they sometimes add, wiping out the Jews would be a good idea).

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:50:21 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  By the way, do you think that's really true? (0+ / 0-)

                Several hundred thousand Romany/Sinti people (Gypsies) were murdered. Do you think that's likely to be a greater percentage of the world Gypsy population than about 6 million Jews in proportion to the world Jewish population? I doubt it. Which does not diminish the enormity of the genocidal mass murders of Gypsies, a people who have it a lot worse than the Jews today, continue to be subject to all kinds of heinous oppression - including in countries like France - and have no "mother country" to speak for them (India couldn't give a damn).

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 03:20:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  ... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14

                  Um... Why should India give a damn, exactly? The Romani, sure, are descended from peoples from the subcontinent, but the time of migration is pinned by most experts to be around 1500 years ago. They are European peoples and have been for over a thousand years. The Roma, the Romani, the Kale, every subgroup is a local issue and those governments need to solve the discrimination problem on their own.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 03:39:43 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  My point is, they have no-one to speak for them (0+ / 0-)

                    The European governments aren't "solving the problem," generally speaking, but continuing to discriminate against and oppress the Romani. When Jews are oppressed somewhere, Israel speaks up and can try to rescue them, not to mention that the US government never seems to bring up violations of Gypsies' rights anywhere (and if it does in private, to no apparent effect) but has repeatedly advocated for Jews for a few decades (thing were not that way during World War II, however). And while I'm not sure India has a special obligation to speak up for a people whose traditional languages are related to Hindi and whose traditional religion is a form of Hinduism, it would be nice if they did.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 03:53:12 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  The Japanese view (0+ / 0-)

              the figures as inflated and misrepresented by Communist and Chinese nationalists, and the Kuomintang's guerilla resistance created a violent situation where more civilians than necessary were caught in the crossfire. This is not the nationalist view which wants to totally deny it, but this is the more moderate, central Japanese view, which doesn't appreciate being depicted as evil mass murderers trying to destroy all the Chinese people in pure murderous spite. That's all I was saying.

              And we're not talking about minor quibbles in the death toll. More accurate scholarship suggests the death toll is a third the size of what's still being contended by the Communist party for propaganda purposes. It places in question many of the other assertions of Chinese propaganda on the issue.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 12:13:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's the conclusion that I utterly reject (0+ / 0-)
                this is the more moderate, central Japanese view, which doesn't appreciate being depicted as evil mass murderers trying to destroy all the Chinese people in pure murderous spite.
                That's exactly what they did, and not only in Nanjing. Or they didn't, only to the extent that there were too many Chinese for them to be able to wipe them out. You don't shoot dead 100,000 civilians without spite, and the idea that the Chinese shouldn't have resisted a brutal occupation and are to blame for being massacred because they had the temerity to resist is exactly the same argument for the total Nazi annihilation of Lidice and other villages where someone killed a Nazi. It's an extraordinarily objectionable and repugnant argument. Instead, the Japanese should admit their troops were extremely bestial and murderous during World War II and own up to their history. Only then might disagreements about the death toll here or there be couched in legitimate terms, rather than as propaganda attempts to deny their own Holocaust through one justification or evasion after another.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 01:29:21 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  There's a legitimate argument (0+ / 0-)

                  in the case of Nanjing however. The Kuomintang commanders essentially abandoned the cities defenses immediately, and dispersed their army into plain clothes combat units, which made occupation both extremely difficult, and as a tactic accepted causing huge civilian casualties in the process of trying to defeat the Japanese invasion. It's not even objectionable, like say, the Turkish argument for the Armenian genocide is, because there was literally a large, armed military force involved in the fighting that led to greater civilian casualties and more overzealous policies on the part of Japanese commanders.

                  The Japanese troops were certainly brutal in World War II, and in many cases committed clear attoricities, however the degree of this representation in its totality, inAmerica must be viewed through the lens of WWII propaganda, and anti-Japanese propaganda in China. I'm not defending Japanese military policy, or their neo-colonialist goals, and I just finished my thesis on the subject of the Holocaust so I'm both very sensitive to that subject and extremely well-versed on the matter. I am however, rejecting shallow, monocratic moralizing on the issue; your tone is the same tone that made Samanther Power's book virtually unreadable to me, and a person can't just sever things from context to make judgments, at least not so simply. That's just my personality as an academic.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 01:39:15 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Other half of the eyecatching news, (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    Jobless claims drop by a good bit again, earnings are better tham than expected, and stocks are up again. Hopefully that means we won't see a complete slowdown this summer of economic gains, like the last few summers.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:25:55 AM PDT

    •  I think part of the reason (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JBraden

      for the slowdown in previous years has been a spike in oil and gas prices. Oil is up today and has been for a couple of days, but  we didnt see the typical price spike that we saw in previous years.

      Hopefully, we dont see it later this year, because if we dont, I think we can avoid that summer slowdown. Despite the sequester.

  •  LA-Mayor: Very interesting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

    So far, I've only seen Greuel on the air and nothing from Garcetti, who just went up with his first ad yesterday. She's running one positive ad where she appears with Barbara Boxer, Magic Johnson and Richard Riordan, that's in addition to the negative one against Garcetti.

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 11:28:10 AM PDT

  •  FL-GOV, FL-SEN: If Nelson were to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    run and win the governor's race, who do we think would run for Senate in 2016 on the Republican side?

    The only obvious strong candidate to me is AG Pam Bondi.

  •  Paul Broun earns an endorsement that might matter (9+ / 0-)

    From one wackadoodle to another, Ron Paul backs Paul Broun for some Paul solidarity.

  •  NH-Pres: (7+ / 0-)

    Clinton dominates in a primary field and would take NH out of contention in the general election

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    •  If the election was held today she would. (11+ / 0-)

      We'll find out in 2016.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:07:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This makes Ayotte's vote against (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, R30A, itskevin, MichaelNY

      background checks very odd. Obviously, no guarantee that Clinton runs. But Clinton is very popular in NH, so that + Ann Kuster or Maggie Hassan as the Dem Senate nominee, and it's trouble for Ayotte's re-election.

      •  Ayotte would be dumb to plan around Hillary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        Ayotte has to plan first and foremost around her place in the GOP Senate Caucus, and second around a 2016 GOP primary.

        The dumbest thing she could do is consider who might be running for President.  That's a fool's game if you're in her shoes.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:22:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Clinton is polling ahead in every swing state (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inoljt, jncca, DCCyclone

      but that is conditional upon her polling ahead nationally by double digits (which she currently is doing).  I don't believe it conveys the right information to say that she takes a state out of contention, unless you add that she does so by taking the whole national election out of contention.  If the national vote tightens up, so would New Hampshire, and every other state she's currently dominating in.  The state polling results must be viewed in light of the national polling results, which does show Clinton crushing the non-Christie field (and given Christie's recent actions, it's no surprise to see him fading as a top GOP choice for president, as he becomes more popular with Democrats than with his own base).

      So I see this as merely one more poll that agrees that yes, at the moment Clinton would trash any Republican, but not an indication of any real unique strength in New Hampshire from Clinton.

      •  It's yet another poll showing strength east of (0+ / 0-)

        the Mississippi (if you twist the Mississippi to wrap around El Paso...), with state polls west of the Mississippi not being nearly so rosy -- and thus national polling not reflecting a uniform rise everywhere.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:18:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I wouldn't be surprised (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, DCCyclone

        if she had special strength in NH, given a number of different factors:

        - The amount of time she's spent there in the past
        - How she rebounded in the '08 NH primary
        - The state's older demographic (she's been around a long time, they know her)
        - Its strong track record, at least recently, of electing women to key offices
        - How amenable the state's voters are to electing pro-choice candidates
        - A smaller evangelical presence than most other states

        •  McCain & Romney had special strength there, and... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, NMLib, skibum59

          ...Obama suffered a humiliating and shocking upset defeat his first time on a ballot there, in the '08 primary.

          And still Obama beat both, and it wasn't razor-thin against either.

          Your points are logical and sensible on the surface, but recent experience shows those factors don't reallly matter.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:25:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Oh you guys are gonna love this (29+ / 0-)

    Watch the goalposts get moved:

    The events of the past two weeks in Charleston, South Carolina, prove just how quickly the expectations game can change in politics. Just after former Gov. Mark Sanford won the Republican runoff, anything less than a Sanford win in such a Republican district would have been an embarrassment for the House GOP. Now, a week after a trespassing charge sent Sanford's redemption bid completely off the rails, anything less than a convincing win for Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch would be seen as a major embarrassment for House Democrats.
    So ECB doesn't just have to win a district Romney carried by 18 points. She has to win it convincingly. Otherwise we will be not just embarrassed, but majorly embarrassed.

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:32:16 PM PDT

  •  Cook moves SC 1 to lean Dem (8+ / 0-)

    Keep the TVA public.

    by Paleo on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 12:48:55 PM PDT

  •  McCain at lowest approval ratings ever (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.brcpolls.com/...

    Pretty devastating numbers. I guess it's good that he said he won't run for another term, then. I'm guessing Carmona is the (very early) Dem frontrunner for this race, then? Anybody else a possibility?

    And I'm guessing JD Hayworth is the default (for now) Republican contender for the seat at this point? Anyone on their side besides Hayworth?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:07:36 PM PDT

    •  Hayworth? (6+ / 0-)

      Nah. He's an idiot and not well-liked by the establishment. His performance in 2010 was so abysmal. I mean, don't get me wrong. Hayworth ordinarily would have the perfect profile for the GOP! But I can't see him very strong here.

      As for Dems, yeah, I figure the nomination is Carmona's for the taking.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:21:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hayworth, etc (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY, JBraden

        He has a rep as sort of a joke, an over-the-top blowhard who reminds people of Rush Limbaugh. He still might win a fractured primary, but would probably lose 1 on 1 with someone who can consolidate the establishment vote. Schweikert might be a good bet for that. He's about as far right as Hayworth is, but doesn't have an abrasive personal style. Jon Kyl and John Shadegg (who both represented roughly the same area as Schweikert reps now) were similar.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:26:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Mark Kelly maybe? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I thought Giffords might run for an open seat in 2016. After all, she was planning on running for Senate in 2012, I believe. But I dont know if that is possible.

      But I could see Kelly running. He is pretty well spoken and has an impressive resume.

      But I dont know if he is that interested in political issues, beyond gun control.

      •  He Mark Kelly a Democrat? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        psychicpanda, jj32

        I thought awhile back I read that he was much more conservative than Gabby.  Of course I'm guessing his views on issues have evolved with recent events.  But yes, he's an impressive fellow with a great resume if he wanted to run for office.

        •  He's always acted like a Democrat (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jj32, SaoMagnifico

          He's never given any indication he's a Republican or has supported Republican candidates.  And every public move he's ever made in politics has been friendly toward us and not so toward the GOP.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:34:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Even if he is a Republican currently (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            If he ever ran for office it would be as a Democrat, because he couldn't get anywhere in a Republican primary with his current activism on gun policy.

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:40:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Actually it's not gun policy, it's simply that... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...he's a recent Democratic Congresswoman's husband!

              That by itself would sink him in today's GOP.

              Anyway, I think it's a given both parties' officials have always assumed him a potential candidate for our side.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 27, 2013 at 06:59:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I bet he hangs it up. I'm surprised at how (9+ / 0-)

      his approval has just tanked and never recovered, if anything getting worse. He'll be 80 years old by election day 2016 and 86 when that term ends (which I doubt he wins), so I think he'll be on the top of everyone's retirement watch list along with Grassley come 2015.

      I'd imagine Dave Schweikert would run and be a good candidate and some of the statewide electeds probably run since it's a free shot for them. Such a shame Quayle likely won't be their nominee as he's unelectable statewide.

      •  I've been wondering about the retirement thing too (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY, JBraden

        I feel like it could go either way. McCain loves hopeless crusades (his favorite book is For Whom The Bell Tolls by Hemingway), which makes me think he wouldn't give up no matter the odds. He has an enormous ego, and by all accounts is completely in his element as a U.S. Senator and wouldn't know what to do without that job.

        Then again, the ego cuts both ways, and he might not want the humiliation of yet another electoral loss. Also, his family could advise him against it. Or perhaps he could realize just how similar his situation is to Dick Lugar's. I think he'll probably try again, though, based on all the info I have.

    •  Whatabout Kirkpatrick? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jj32

      she seem like she fits the mold of Dem, that can win a Senate seat in Arizona.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:56:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Probably better to have someone from (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jj32

        Phoenix area.  But she'd be good.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 03:37:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kirkpatrick would be decent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I agree with jncca that someone from the Phoenix suburbs - or someone from Tucson - would be best.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 03:53:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Tucson Mayor Jonathan Rothschild (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Gygaxian

          that would be cool.  I can imagine Alex Jones' head would explode at learning one of this "Illuminati" family is running.  Also,  the mayor and I have the same last name.

          "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 04:01:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It wouldn't be the first time for Alex Jones: (0+ / 0-)

            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 04:05:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  So you're a member of the Illmunati? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, KingofSpades, trowaman

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:32:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ah, the Illuminati (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Gygaxian, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

              a century-old conspiracy theory dreamed up out of some guy's paranoid fear of the influence of secular humanists and Jews.

              "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:00:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I always get dissappointed by conspiracy theories (0+ / 0-)

                As they aren't very creative with what religions they're terrified of. C'mon, blame Mormons or Seventh-Day Adventists! Or Quakers!

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:02:41 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  There are no conspiracy theories about Lutherans. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  The theory should involve a hot dish in some way to be believable though.

                  President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                  by askew on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:28:22 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Let's not forget the Jacobite conspiracy theories (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew, ArkDem14

                    although fears were confirmed by their assault on the northern UK in 1745 under Bonnie Prince Charlie, the Young Pretender, Jacobites were used as a boogeyman throughout the 18th century.  It was why the Tories suffered immensely after the reign Queen Anne.  Conservatives (in this context, conservatives referred to those that preferred the old days of a very strong monarch and very strict anti-Roman Catholic doctrine) were often tied together with Jacobites in the CW and the Whigs utterly dominated Parliament.

                    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                    by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:52:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  The first Sherlocks Holmes novel (4+ / 0-)

                  A Study in Scarlet depicted Mormons as a shady and reprehensible cult (although Sir Arthur Conan Doyle later regretted it, citing his ignorance about them at the time).  I also think that whenever something shady comes up to defeat things like SSM (like Prop 8), the magnifying glass is put up to Mormon donors and organizations by some blogs.

                  "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                  by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:46:03 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  I think she's weak (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        My impression is her political skills are "meh."  I don't get the sense anyone in Arizona is impressed by her.  I'd be worried if she were the nominee, I think there are plenty stronger.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:35:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think so too. (0+ / 0-)

          She's barely good enough for her district, but that's not enough for statewide.

          "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 10:47:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt Hayworth would get the nod (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY, JBraden

      more likely it'll be one of their various boring, very right wing congressmen (Schweikert, Gosar, Salmon or Frank). Most likely it would be Schweikert, which allows the return of Quayle.

  •  Pence gets part of what he wanted (5+ / 0-)

    Budget to include a 5% income tax cut, not the 10% he favored. But naturally, the GOP found other ways to give the wealthy the lions' share of the tax cut- reduces the state corporate tax, and eliminates the inheritance tax. Pence also managed to get the legislature to block Medicaid expansion. He gets to try to negotiate something to expand medical savings accounts. He also got a bill to expand vocational training. So Pence ended up getting a lot of what he wanted, but my main observation is how the GOP legislature went from being an arm of Mitch Daniels to more or less ignoring Mike Pence.

    One thing to note is that the legislature is on the verge of passing SB621, which eliminates the 4 at-large city county council seats in Indianapolis, which would shift the control from 16-13 Dem to 13-12 GOP. They have also passed additional abortion regulations. A few GOP things that look like they are not likely to pass this session- the Senate version of an education bill does not have the House passed provision to prohibit payroll deduction of teacher union dues. The gay marriage constitutional amendment was put off until 2014. The attempt to get a national constitutional convention was shelved. But, the 2014 short session is going to be interesting as to what the legislature does. At some point, the Senate President and House Speaker may not be able to keep some of the really crazy bills from being passed.

    http://www.indystar.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:36:50 PM PDT

    •  Very shortsighted of them. (4+ / 0-)

      They are consumed with wanting power now. This will probably backfire on them in terms of hurting Ballard and the eventual taking back of the council.

      •  A lot will depend on the lawsuit over (5+ / 0-)

        the new City-County Council map that is in the Marion Superior Court, but likely to hit the Indiana Supreme Court before the 2015 elections. The GOP map tries to pack Dems into 10 seats.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:50:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  map? (0+ / 0-)

          Can I see the map? I know that Indy is a ancestrally GOP city, but is that gerrymander sustainable?

          Also, how is the Stumbo gerrymander going in Kentucky? Did the GA adjourn yet?

          •  Here they are (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, brooklyncyclones

            GOP (enacted in Dec 2011) map: http://www.indy.gov/...

            Dem (passed in 2012, vetoed by Mayor Ballard): http://www.indy.gov/...

            There are some really concentrated Dem areas in the county. The southern part of the county is largely GOP. What they did was to create several seats that only slightly lean GOP on the north and west sides. Given the Dems gained House seats on the north and west sides in 2012, I do not think they are sustainable for very long.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:41:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I haven't been following this as closely ... (0+ / 0-)

      ... as I should (been busy with a bunch of stuff), but I thought the elimination of the at large seats was stripped out of the bill a couple of weeks ago.  Am I wrong about that?

      •  That was in committee. I forget who but (5+ / 0-)

        one of the reps. offered an amendment on the floor to put it back in, and it was placed back in.  It's so outrageous.  

        This WILL cost the republicans everything in Marion Co. -- it will seal the deal and remove them from power in Indianapolis for a long, long time.  I do believe U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett is considering running for Indianapolis Mayor in 2015.  Let's hope so!  I think we will win at least an outright majority of 13 seats on the council anyway.

        27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

        by IndyLiberal on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:15:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The new map (3+ / 0-)

          by the 2010 election numbers creates 10 districts that are more than 57% Dem, and 10 districts that are more than 55% GOP. This leaves five districts that are 50.43%-52.38% GOP. Given that this is based on a strongly GOP year, this will make control in 2015 very interesting.

          Here are the numbers: http://www.indy.gov/...

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 06:45:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Just for informational purposes (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Hogsett (current the US Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana, like Indy mentioned) was also Secretary of State from 1989-1994. He was originally appointed by Bayh after he won the Governorship.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:44:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks ... (0+ / 0-)

          And it is outrageous and politically short-sighted.  I could see Greg Ballard as the last Republican mayor of the city for a long time.

      •  still there (0+ / 0-)

        "Provides that in Marion County, a township board consists of five (instead of seven) members. Provides that members of the initial five member township board are elected at the November 2016 general election."

        Senate Bill 621

        I look at the news from many soruces.

    •  Has the lege given up (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      its bitter and partisan crusade to try and defang Glenda Ritz?

      •  I think that's largely accomplished already (0+ / 0-)

        Unless I'm mistaken?

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:45:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, they haven't done as much as originally (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          planned.  From what I have heard, they are going to wait until later in Pence's term to really do damage.  So far, they have removed her authority to oversee some licensing of teachers and administrators.  They did not remove her oversight of charter schools or vouchers like they had originally planned though.  

          Interesting, I just wrote a law review note, as my final paper, in Education Law arguing why we shoudl keep her position elected.

          27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

          by IndyLiberal on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 06:37:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  HI-01: A little worried about Djou (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    He came awfully close to winning last year, and that was against a well-known Democrat and with Obama at the top of the ticket.  Next year he'll likely be running against a Some Dude from the Hawaii legislature or Honolulu City Council, and wouldn't have to worry about being dragged down by the top of the ticket.

    •  I think in a regular midterm election (7+ / 0-)

      the Dem will be okay.

      Djou would no doubt be a strong candidate, but I was more worried about him in a special election, if Hanabusa was chosen to be a senator.

      But Djou as an incumbent lost in the 2010 midterms, and while he did surprisingly well in 2012, he did lose some votes vs his 2010 performance.

      •  Yup (5+ / 0-)

        Djou has a ceiling in HI-01.  In his three elections, he has gotten 39%, 47%, and 44%.  He's not going to break 50 unless we Mark Sanford this race.

        Even with a some dude legislator, we'll be fine.  We just have to make sure we don't put up somebody who actively embarrasses themself and drives voters to the Republican.

        But I wouldn't worry too much about Djou taking the seat because of mid-term drop off.  2010 was just as brutal as 2008 and 2012 were for Hawaii Republicans, and I suspect 2014 will be too.  As long as Obama is president, and probably for quite a few years afterwards, Hawaii Democrats have a huge boost just from the association.

  •  question about Dallas County, TX (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is there a particular reason why the whites there are more politically moderate (relative to the rest of urban/suburban Texans)?

    My finding is that McCain won 60-40 in the all white precincts (75%+) of Dallas County and did especially well (winning or narrowly losing) in the White Rock area. Does it have something to do with being more established perhaps?

    FWIW, I remember hearing on RRH that Dallas County is the only part of the state where Obamacans exist.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:19:44 PM PDT

    •  Because Dallas County (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Has a very vibrant arts community and has a good presence of white liberals.

      But remember that Austin is still much more white liberal than Dallas.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:40:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah I almost forgot about Austin (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

        I was thinking more in comparison with Houston/Harris County

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 03:09:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Houston also has a good presence of white liberals (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, JGibson, MichaelNY

          The problem is that they're smaller a proportion of whites than in Dallas. But if you take Dallas and Fort Worth together as well as they're metropolitan area (and the rest of Houston's metropolitan area, ofcourse), as you really should in this comparison, the proportion of white liberals is basically the same.

          The only city that doesn't have an appreciable amount of white liberals is San Antonio, but that's only because of its small size relative to both DFW and Houston, I think.

          That's also perhaps changing, given San Antonio's very hard press to develop areas into art focused centers like River North, SoFlo, and others.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 03:56:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  SC 1 - This election means absolutely nothing... (7+ / 0-)

    as far as national trends go. It's ridiculous that anyone is trying to set expectations for it.

    To my mind, the election it most resembles is the race Joe Cao won in LA-1 in 2008 against a scandal ridden incumbent. The Dems won numerous special elections after that, and while Republicans did end up winning the House in 2010, Cao lost his seat by a pretty big margin.

    That Charlie Cook column quoted just makes no sense to me. This election means nothing whoever wins it and however much they win it by. It's too idiosyncratic, unless Sanford is dumb enough to try to run again if he loses (and I don't think there's a chance of that).

    •  Nationally, you're right, but in SC (7+ / 0-)

      it means a GREAT deal.  That is why it matters.  SC Dems need a win as momentum for the Governor's race.  

      •  Does that really matter? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, jncca

        How do you think a win vs. a narrow loss would affect the gubernatorial race?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:40:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sheheen will get several advantages from a win .. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, HoosierD42

          1)  SC Dems will get there first major win since 1998. That helps loosen purse strings of contributors and emboldens the faithful. This is VERY important.  
          2) Sheheen MUST win SC-1 to have a chance at victory.  If ECB wins, she will be running in the same election helping to turn out her own supporters, and will have the funds to do so. This district is MORE Republican than the state as a whole too. Haley is least popular in the Charleston area, and a loss for her party here would emphasize that weakess.
          3) THis victory would provide data for Sheheen to use such as volunteer names, voters, and 'swing' voters.
          4) Ths SC Dems are still trying to live down the Alvin Greene story.  A win goes a long way to re-establish credibility statewide for the party as a whole, and makes Alvin Greene 'old news'.
          5) There will be a new round of circlular firing squad in the SC GOP.  The party chairman is already under considerable attack now.  The Tea party and establishment factions will have yet another bone of contention if ECB wins.  
          6) Democrats have been gaining strentgh in Charleston already, at the state house and county council level.  This would help build momentum at the 'farm team' level.  
          7) On the other hand, if Sanford still wins, the party faithful will think 'if we can't win in those circumstances, how can we win otherwise'.

          •  That would be a very foolish conclusion (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            As you said, SC-1 is a good deal more Republican than the state as a whole, so let's say Sanford wins by 100 votes. That's gonna lead to defeatism and a lack of contributions by Democrats? If so, I find that sad and illogical.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 03:17:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  SC-01 is not a must win for Sheheen (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            He actually can win with only Clyburn's district and maybe the 5th and/or 7th, but just barely. Since he's from the 5th district, he'll probably over perform there and the 7th, as some of that may be there too.

            23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 07:30:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Illinois 18-0 map is in (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    I hope that help to the people realizing about how is a real Democratic Gerrymander finding the limits.

  •  SC1 (7+ / 0-)

    This is getting so ridiculous, they have to make a movie about it. I could use some casting suggestions:

    Mark Sanford = Steve Carell
    Jenny Sanford = ?
    Mark's mistress = ?
    Bostic = ?
    ECB = ?

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 02:28:47 PM PDT

  •  Mark Sanford 2014? (4+ / 0-)

    Am I the only one thinking this guy is delusional enough to run for Congress again in 2014 even after losing this race?  I think his mind is so far gone it could happen.

  •  So before the phone number incident (5+ / 0-)

    I was pretty sure Mark Sanford was running for SC-1. Now, I'm beginning to think he's just running for biggest jerk in politics.

  •  Don't poll- count the tweets (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    http://techpresident.com/...

    Can Tweets Predict the Vote?

    •  I know this has been studied (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike, sacman701

      and has a bad correlation in some european countries. For an American example, Ron Paul always was the most popular on social networking measurements. It really measure the depth, not the breadth, of a candidate's support.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:00:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-GOV: Aaron Schock wont run (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, Gygaxian
  •  SC-1: Yep, he's crazy (5+ / 0-)

    I don't know what would make him think it's okay to post telephone numbers online, but clearly he's not thinking that rationally at this point.

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 08:10:57 PM PDT

  •  I'm not surprised Sona Mehring is dropping out... (4+ / 0-)

    Now that it appears Starfleet the DFL establishment is going to back the Ba'ku Mike Obermuller.

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