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8:46 AM PT: Guns: Following up on their New Hampshire polling which showed GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte's job approval plummeting in the wake of her vote against expanding background checks for gun buyers, PPP checked in on five other senators in four states who also voted against the legislation, known as the Manchin-Toomey amendment. The results were pretty for no one:

State Senator Approvals Prior
Approvals
Change More/Less
Likely to Vote
Support for
BG Checks
AK Mark Begich (D) 41-37 49-39 (Feb.) -6 22-39 60-35
AK Lisa Murkowski (R) 46-41 54-33 (Feb.) -16 26-39 60-35
AZ Jeff Flake (R) 32-51 45-43 (Nov.)٭ -21 19-52 70-26
NV Dean Heller (R) 44-41 47-42 (Nov.) -2 25-46 70-24
OH Rob Portman (R) 26-34 35-25 (Oct.) -18 19-36 72-21
٭ PPP tested Flake's favorability rating in November, not his job approval rating.

Of course, you could argue that post hoc doesn't necessarily mean ergo propter hoc, but the evidence that "no" votes on Manchin-Toomey have hurt opponents is starting to look awfully consistent. What's more, there's also some indication that "yes" votes may have actually helped supporters. While I wish PPP had also tested John McCain, Sherrod Brown, and Harry Reid (all of whom favored the bill, though Reid voted against it for procedural reasons), they did ask Arizona voters whether they trusted McCain or Flake more on guns; McCain wins on that score by a wide 45-24 margin. And Flake, for his part, has already made himself the most unpopular sitting senator PPP has data on.

But there's something else, too. Ayotte's senior colleague, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, voted for Manchin-Toomey, but she's seen her approvals move up over the same timeframe, from 46-39 in October (PDF) to 53-39 now. And in Quinnipiac's polling, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who lent his name to the legislation, also saw a spike in his numbers. There's also the fact that the NRA just started airing radio ads to defend Ayotte, something I doubt they'd do if they felt their once-typical supreme confidence.

Of course, except for Begich, who could lose for any number of reasons in red Alaska, none of these senators are up for re-election any time soon. But that doesn't mean this vote wasn't a mistake, and it doesn't mean there won't be consequences.


9:36 AM PT: MI-Sen: According to unnamed sources, The Hotline says that Rep. Gary Peters will launch a bid for Senate "this week." At this point, Peters is the clear choice for Democrats, and there really aren't any obvious (or even non-obvious) alternatives, so really it's just a matter of timing. Peters's campaign wouldn't confirm, but Congress is currently adjourned for a "district work period," so this week is as plausible as any.

10:23 AM PT: Charlotte Mayor: Confirming some earlier speculation, Barack Obama has indeed nominated Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx as his new transportation secretary, to replace Ray LaHood. Foxx is definitely one of the brighter young Democratic stars in North Carolina politics, but it's unclear what effect this career change (assuming he's confirmed by the Senate) might have on his future. On the one hand, there have been a few politicians who held non-statewide office, were elevated to the cabinet, and then came back home to win a statewide position. On the other, a stint inside the beltway and a close association with Barack Obama may not help Foxx if he wants to seek a promotion somewhere down the line, but of course, he may not be interested in that route.

10:39 AM PT: IA-Sen: A lengthy AP story about Republican Senate recruitment woes nationwide also includes a few specifics about the situation in Iowa, where the GOP search for Plan D continues apace. The NRSC reportedly met with state Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey and state Sen. Joni Ernst last week, and they're also trying to talk to former Reliant Energy CEO Mark Jacobs. In a desperation heave, they even tried to persuade Gov. Terry Branstad to jump in; unsurprisingly, he said no. (Branstad hasn't even committed to running for another term as governor.)

A separate piece in Politico reports that David Young, chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley, is also putting out feelers about a potential bid. Young "declined to comment" on the matter, so count that as a non-denial.

10:49 AM PT: MD-Gov: That's certainly one way to boost your coffers. Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown is reportedly talking to Howard County Executive Ken Ulman about the possibility of Ulman switching gears and serving as Brown's running mate in the Democratic primary, rather than continue with his own gubernatorial ambitions. Ulman is only 38 and is a longer shot to win the nomination, so the move would make sense for him. As for Brown, he'd be able to pool Ulman's $2.1 million cash stockpile with his own $1.6 million warchest, allowing him to gain ground on state Attorney General Doug Gansler's huge $5.2 million bank account.

Brown isn't discussing this scenario publicly, but Ulman rather explicitly held the door open in a recent interview, saying "It's fair to say I'm in a process of evaluating the best way to serve a state I really love."  The Washington Post, though, notes that Ulman, who is term limited in his current job, could also run for the AG post being vacated by Gansler.

11:01 AM PT: P.S. Jeff Flake decided to compound his error by going after PPP in an interview with (blech) the Daily Caller. Tom Jensen predictably obliterates him. Good guys 1, Jeff Flake nuttin'.

11:17 AM PT: The Hill pegs an announcement for Wednesday, according to "two sources close to Peters."

12:31 PM PT: PA-Gov: Yow. These Pennsylvania polls are getting to the point where we have to hope GOP Gov. Tom Corbett doesn't wind up like former North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue (who opted against seeking a second term because her job approvals were so bad) or former Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons (who got trounced in the Republican primary when he tried to run for a second term himself). Because with numbers like these from Quinnipiac, Corbett really might be tempted to bail—or an upstart might attempt to deny him renomination. Just check out the trendlines from Quinnipiac's last poll in March:

Joe Sestak (D): 48 (47)
Tom Corbett (R): 34 (38)

Allyson Schwartz (D): 47 (42)
Tom Corbett (R): 34 (39)

Rob McCord (D): 44 (38)
Tom Corbett (R): 38 (42)

Indeed, Corbett's favorability rating has sunk to an epic new low of 29-43, down disastrously from 39-44 last month. (His job approval, though, barely budged, clocking in at 38-47, versus 39-49 in March.) And Corbett's head-to-heads now resemble PPP's early March results, results that seemed a bit too good (or bad) to be true at the time. But both firms now see Corbett at around the 34 percent mark, which is so hellaciously awful for an incumbent that it's hard to comprehend.

If things don't change dramatically, the only question may be which Democrat has the honors of doing Corbett in. Quinnipiac tested a multi-way hypothetical primary, but only Schwartz and Sestak registered, each with 15 percent. No one else was higher than 3 (including McCord), so the picture remains wide open. However, only Schwartz has actually declared her candidacy, though she'd crush Corbett as hard as anyone.

12:51 PM PT: House: Relying in part on the 2012 presidential results that Daily Kos Elections calculated for all 435 congressional districts, the folks at FairVote have released updated partisanship ratings for the entire House of Representatives. You can find their complete spreadsheet with all of the data they used to compile their ratings here, and if you click around in the tabs, you'll find detailed explanations for their methodology.

1:07 PM PT: IL-13: A new potential challenger to freshman GOP Rep. Rodney Davis addressed a gathering of the Champaign County Democratic Party on Sunday night, University of Illinois physics professor George Gollin. Also in attendance was another possible candidate, Madison County Judge Ann Callis, though she did not make a speech (probably because she still sits on the bench and it might raise questions about judicial propriety). There are a couple of good quotes from Gollin in the linked article, including a reference to the fact that he and Callis are "from opposite ends of the district," but that no matter who earns the nomination, "we will come at Mr. Davis from the east and from the west and return him to private life." Also check out the last graf for a taste of what Gollin's priorities are like.

2:36 PM PT: Pittsburgh Mayor: This is unexpected. After former state Auditor Jack Wagner entered the Pittsburgh mayoral race, he quickly consolidated support and ran out to a 38-30 lead over City Councilman Bill Peduto, according to Keystone Analytics. But Keystone's new poll now has Peduto edging Wagner 38-36 in the Democratic primary. That 10 point shift is a big move, given that it took place in just three weeks, and at a time when Wagner appeared to have all the momentum. The primary is fast approaching on May 21.

3:03 PM PT: SC-01: With one week to go until the special election, Democratic groups have continued to ad to their television ad buys hammering Republican Mark Sanford. The DCCC piled on with another $215,000, while House Majority PAC contributed an additional $60,000, as well as $19,000 on mailers. However, unless HMP reports another big buy very soon, they'll likely fall short of the $400,000 to $600,000 investment the Washington Post initially reported they'd make. (Their first buy was for $107,000.) That could actually be good news for Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, though, if it means that outside groups feel they don't need to spend as much on her as originally planned.

But you can't say that Sanford isn't getting any help! Despite getting abandoned by every Republican office-holder and conservative bag man who matters, there's one politician who's lashing herself to the sinking USS Sanford: Gov. Nikki Haley. Haley, a Sanford protégé, likely owes her career to the guy, and remarkably, her close relationship with Sanford didn't seem to hurt her in the 2010 GOP primary for governor. However, it may have been a reason the general election that year was so close, and you'd think Sanford's egregious series of misdeeds would have burned up any remaining favors in his account with Haley.

But nope. Here comes Haley to headline a last-minute fundraiser for Sanford on Wednesday. If she'd abandoned her one-time mentor entirely, she could at least blame him for his own loss, assuming he goes down to defeat on Tuesday. But by extending him a helping hand, she now can't distance herself from Sanford if he loses. And even if he wins, what's the upside? "Hooray, I helped a guy the entire establishment and press despises"? Well, all I can say is that Haley may not have the sharpest political skills in the Palmetto State.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:00:18 AM PDT

  •  Poor dear Bill Nelson. He's so frustrated by the (0+ / 0-)

    dysfunction of the Senate!  Does he not realize he is part of that dysfunction?  

    Takin' bribes and doin' nuthin'.  That's what our supposed representatives do.

    Nelson sits tight, glides below the radar, never puts himself on the line.

  •  Now that my massive gerrymandering diary is done (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn, R30A

    I'm undecided on what my next diary series will be. A couple of options are a "what if redistricting took place after 2008", "how many seats did Democrats cost themselves in 2012", or maybe something different related to maps and the underlying data. What do you guys think? My goal for this year was to write one diary per week but I doubt I can keep up with that while still publishing original material.

    Oh, and thank you David for this list of top tier Republican senate recruits in Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, North carolina, Montana, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Arkansas, Virginia, and Oregon. :P

    •  I like the former idea, post-2008 redistricting (0+ / 0-)

      Though it probably would have cost us seats in places, one solid example being California (incumbent protection instead of an absolutely game-changer of a map). Plus, Florida wouldn't have had the Fair Districts Amendment, not that Florida Republicans followed it much anyway.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:17:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-Governor's race: Quinnipiac poll = great news (18+ / 0-)
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    Each of three leading Democrats who might challenge Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett for reelection in 2014 lead the Republican incumbent by margins of 9 percentage points or higher, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    Pennsylvania voters disapprove 47 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Corbett is doing, continuing a four-month string of negative scores in surveys by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University...

    Former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak tops Corbett 48 - 34 percent, including 45 - 29 percent among independent voters:
        U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz is ahead 47 - 34 percent, including 45 - 27 percent among independent voters:
        State Treasurer Rob McCord is up 44 - 35 percent, including 40 - 30 percent among independent voters.

    "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

    by MrLiberal on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:14:12 AM PDT

  •  Stephen Lynch ends campaign early (7+ / 0-)

    "Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Stephen Lynch cancelled almost all of his campaign events on Monday, citing illness."

    http://www.masslive.com/...

  •  MA Sen (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JohnnyBoston, jj32, pademocrat, askew, itskevin

    I am looking forward to this being over just so I can get a break from Dan Winslow ads! They are everywhere I go.

  •  SC-1 debate is tonight (7+ / 0-)

    It's safe to guess Sanford goes heavily on the offense, but will he go overboard?

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:57:16 AM PDT

  •  SC-01: Excellent background on ECB, but (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8

    what is it with those state politicos it mentions that think Sanford will win?
    http://www.thestate.com/...

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:15:17 AM PDT

  •  More Backlash Against Senators on Gun Vote (10+ / 0-)

    PPP has found that several Republican Senators have seen their approval numbers crater after their "nay" votes against stronger background checks. I would try to summarize it, but you just have to read the whole thing.

    I'm still convinced that we need to campaign on this against McConnell in Kentucky, at least in Louisville and Lexington. I know some people said that voters wouldn't care enough to vote against Republicans on this issue, but the polling seems to be indicating otherwise. We need to see actual polling from Kentucky to be sure of this, but I still think it's a worthwhile investment by groups like Mayors Against Illegal Guns and Americans for Responsible Solutions.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:36:30 AM PDT

    •  It is an interesting thought (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bumiputera, skibum59

      McConnell has a good base in Jefferson County, and weakening him there goes a long way as it is a must win for any Democrat statewide. But we have to be careful not to alienate voters in other areas of the state as well. It is a balancing act, but one that could be beneficial if done right.

    •  Portman is a bit of a unique case (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin, GaleForceBurg

      Since it also factors in his coming out in support of marriage equality.  Most of the other Senators saw little erosion in GOP support but Portman went from 62/11 to 46/19 among them.

      Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

      by marcvstraianvs on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:05:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  a big question (0+ / 0-)

      is whether or not pro-gun control voters, specifically independents, will still care come 2014.  It's probably safe to say that anti-gun control voters will be care, through 2014 as will pro-gun control dems.  Senators who voted against background checks are losing independent voter support now, but will that could vanish as time goes on and other issues get attention.  If it does last through 2014 however, it may signal a paradigm shift away from  conservative stances on issues and towards liberal stances.  

      It'd be nice if we had a few more test cases, the IL special house election was a good data point, but not indicative of the nation as a whole.  

      NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

      by DougTuttle on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:31:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Russ Feingold is in talks to (11+ / 0-)

    become a US special envoy to Africa.

    I would think if he gets this, it would mean no run for governor or Senate. Although I dont know how likely that was to begin with.

    My hope is Ron Kind runs for one of those seats. Most likely, it will be Senate.

  •  Justice O'Connor: maybe Bush v. Gore was wrong (8+ / 0-)
    It took the case and decided it at a time when it was still a big election issue," O'Connor told the Chicago Tribune editorial board last Friday. "Maybe the court should have said, 'We're not going to take it, goodbye.'"
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Gee, ya think?

    Keep the TVA public.

    by Paleo on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:51:39 AM PDT

  •  DE marriage equality (9+ / 0-)

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    supposed to get a committee vote on Wednesday; expected to pass. already has 9 supporters (all D), 2 D opponents. the swing voted appear to be the remaining 2 Ds as well as 2 Rs. if I'm not mistaken we'll need to pick up 3 of 4 swing votes to pass it. daunting but not impossible.

    meanwhile, nary a peep out of IL where the legislative session only has one month left...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:06:58 AM PDT

  •  First openly gay major sport professional... (22+ / 0-)

    ...is out today:  journeyman center Jason Collins.  He and his twin brother Jarron starred at Stanford over a decade ago.  I remember them from Stanford, they were dominating.

    Here's your horse race angle:  Jason Collins' roommate at Stanford was none other than now-freshman Congressman Joe Kennedy.  And Kennedy's participation in a gay pride parade (he is straight) was Collins' final push to come out.

    I realize this is pushing it on what is a fair topic on DKE, but I can't resist, especially since so many DKEers are gay and this is another big step by itself to have someone come out in one of the "macho" sports.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:22:12 AM PDT

  •  MI-Sen: Gary Peters is in! (22+ / 0-)

    Link here:  http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    No surprise of course, but we need him to actually pull the trigger, and he is doing so.

    I trust his politics, my only question is will he support filibuster reform?  If yes, that by itself makes him an upgrade in the seat.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:25:21 AM PDT

    •  One more thing...... (7+ / 0-)

      The story I linked notes that on the GOP side Mike Rogers isn't acting like a candidate.  He didn't pay for polling in Q1 and didn't raise much money for someone who might be contemplating a Senate run.

      That's good news, since as I think Peters would beat any comer it's still the case IMO that Rogers is the toughest potential opponent.  Rogers won a dead-even purple seat back in the 90s, he knows how to campaign to a mixed bag of voters.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:27:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Technically he won it in 2000. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, DCCyclone

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 02:49:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Peters is a solid recruit (4+ / 0-)

      I am happy with that.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:30:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Great news! (0+ / 0-)

      This basically moves the race to likely Dem.

    •  What about Gary Peter's House Seat? (0+ / 0-)

      any rumblings about that yet, since everybody knew this was coming after Dingell opted out?

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:42:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Should be an interesting primary battle for MI-14 (0+ / 0-)

      Had Hansen Clarke not displayed some rather odd behavior during the 2012 campaign, I'd call him the clear favorite if he ran.  He may still have a leg up but his 2012 campaign probably won't scare off any credible challengers.

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:46:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Clarke (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, R30A, jncca

        He'll have a hard time if he gets just one serious challenger, but if it's a split field he'll cruise on name rec.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:59:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think Clarke (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, ArkDem14, James Allen, skibum59

        Ran a really desultory campaign, almost like he had no passion or interest in winning. Then the weird racial angles were just... weird. But really I think the latter was a desperation heave caused by the former, meaning I think the former is the "real" problem. But if I'm right that Clarke barely wanted it, then it's doubtful he'd run again.

        What a weird way to finish out a career that started with a very difficult ouster of an incumbent in a clown car primary.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:03:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How about Jocelyn Benson (0+ / 0-)

        would she be a good canidate for that seat, or does she want to make another run at SoS?

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:14:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She's White. (0+ / 0-)

          I think that rules her out unless four or more people run.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 02:51:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Peters is white and won the district (0+ / 0-)

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 02:57:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Due to a split in the African American vote (0+ / 0-)

              which jncca just said.

              •  I know what he said (0+ / 0-)

                it's possible if the primary is crowded, that could happened. I think it's probably best if she run for SoS again.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:10:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Peters (4+ / 0-)

                nearly broke 50% in his own right, and there was only one other real Democrat in the Primary, Brenda Lawrence, whose Southfield constituency in Oakland county more naturally match the places where Peters' overperformed, having been generally stronger in Oakland. So no, Peters' didn't really have to depend on a strongly fragmented field of black candidates.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:36:04 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  He got 47% of the vote. (0+ / 0-)

                  That's not nearly 50%. Who's to say what would have happened if there was only one strong African American candidate in the mix.

                  •  All he had to get was a quarter (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    HoosierD42

                    of Lawrence's vote. And as I said, Southfield is Peter's area; it's right on the periphary of both his state senate district and his U.S. House district. Lawrence ran as an outsider, non-Detroit machine based candidate. Her profile matched Peters' based and strongest areas much better than Clarke. And again, all Peters needed to go was get 1/4 Lawrence voters, which seems a given.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:53:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  To win... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera

                    Hansen would have had to get pretty much every Lawrence voter, a split of even 90-10 would still have give Peters a victory.

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:57:25 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I said a strong candidate. (0+ / 0-)

                      Like David Nir said, Hansen Clarke had some issues. Peters only got the percentage he did because some in African American community wanted Clarke gone. So in the event of a strong AA candidate, Peters would not have won.

                      •  Name a "strong AA candidate" (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        Who both a) would have run and b) kept Peters from getting a majority in a one-on-one race.

                        Go ahead, name one. Or stop asserting an opinion as fact.

                        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                        by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:47:01 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  That's disingenuous... (0+ / 0-)

                        Hansen Clarke was a strong candidate, he was a state senator for nine years and an incumbent congressman. Yes, he did run a poor campaign ultimately, but that's something that can't be predicted ahead of time.

                        I think you're missing that Peters himself represented a large chunk of the district, and had strong institutional support. It's absolutely not a given that a different candidate would have beaten Peters or would have even been the favorite.

                        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                        by NMLib on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:58:10 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                •  Peters had the Detroit Black establishment (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, skibum59, HoosierD42, slacks

                  behind him.  There's no way in hell they back another White candidate this time around; they knew he was a one-term placeholder.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:29:38 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  MA Sen Suffolk: Markey doing well (6+ / 0-)

    in three "marginal towns."

    http://www.suffolk.edu/...

    Keep the TVA public.

    by Paleo on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:26:41 AM PDT

  •  IA GOP (4+ / 0-)

    What a blatant case of court stripping. I am so thankful we have the state senate to put a stop to this.

    http://siouxcityjournal.com/...

    •  GOP as crazy in Iowa as anywhere (5+ / 0-)

      They are complete whackadoodles.

      Thankfully nonpartisan redistricting ensures that such insanity can't ascent to power very easily or for very long.  Branstad is a garden variety establishment conservative for his part, but I'm confident Iowa Dems will hold at least one state legislative chamber through the decade, with a 50-50 shot or better at the Governorship whenever Branstad hangs it up (almost certainly 2018).

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:55:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I presume 2010 Senate seats are up in 2014? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, JohnnyBoston, ArkDem14

        so Democrats should have a higher floor than they did in 2012.

        "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 11:00:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's correct (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, ArkDem14, DCCyclone

          There're two classes of Iowa state senators, each with four-year terms.

          •  I'd like to see a break down (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            of which Democratic seats are vulnerable and which Republican seats are.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:38:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Normally one could say... (0+ / 0-)

              ...that there will be snapback in 2014, with our knocking out some accidental GOP winners who aren't viable long-term.

              But nonpartisan redistricting that jumbles everything up really throws a monkey wrench into that notion.  Now anything could happen.

              Still, in a wave some people win who shouldn't win anywhere, and it's hard to see how redistricting could've ultimately helped the GOP.  I tend to think the Dems will slightly expand their margin.

              The other goal is to take back the lower chamber which is now close at 53-47, but that's tougher with Branstad anchoring his party at the top.  The Senate race, I think, will be a completely different animal and won't drive anything downballot unless King or some other whackadoodle really hurts the party.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:38:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I love this line. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje
      "Marriage fundamentally is a privilege, it is not a right. Everyone does still have the right to marry someone of the opposite sex," Ung said. "But the argument that 'it doesn't affect you, so stay out of my business,' that is not how social liberals act out in culture."
      Emphasis mine. He contradicts himself in his very next sentence!

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:57:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Desperately Seeking Aliens (14+ / 0-)

    Former Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK) along with former Reps  Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-MI), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Darlene Hooley (D-OR), Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) and Merrill Cook (R-UT) have "signed up...to listen to testimony aimed at proving alien contact with Earth and a government effort to cover it up."

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:29:37 AM PDT

  •  WATN (4+ / 0-)

    Former Reps Carolyn Kilpatrick, Roscoe Bartlett, Lynn Woolsey, Darlene Hooley, Merrill Cook, and former Sen Mike Gravel are evidently joining forces to... investigate evidence of a government coverup of extraterrestrials.  Or, if you prefer, "Cosmic Watergate."

    27, Cajun guy married to a better guy, TX-07 by way of LA-06

    by Phaedrus Says What on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:39:06 AM PDT

  •  AZ senate (5+ / 0-)

    If that poll is accurate, Mark Kelly may be the favorite to succeed McCain in 2016. I think he could beat Schweikert (let alone any lesser Republican) with Hillary at the top of the ticket.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:01:10 AM PDT

  •  PPP strikes back at Flake's pushback (19+ / 0-)

    Flake says: ‘If we believed PPP polls, I wouldn’t be here at all.’
    PPP replies: We said Flake was going to win by 5 and he won by 3

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:10:42 AM PDT

  •  IL-13: Physics professor George Gollin likely in (6+ / 0-)

    Link: http://www.news-gazette.com/...

    But Ann Callis, chief judge in Madison County and another potential challenger to freshman U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, stayed largely silent, speaking to small groups at individual tables but forgoing an opportunity to address the 150 or so in attendance.

    [...]

    "I was invited and I'm happy to be here," was all Callis would say for the record Sunday.

    It was up to Gollin to speak about a possible Democratic Party primary election next spring.

    "I am considering running for office, as is Judge Callis. If we both decide to run, it will be a spirited primary," he said. "And then by mid-March, voters will have chosen one of us to stand against Representative Davis. The judge and I come from opposite ends of the district. If we run, I will expect that next year we will have a friendly discussion about who would like to be the rock and who would like to be the hard place. And then we will come at Mr. Davis from the east and from the west and return him to private life."

    I've heard he's also supposedly spoken with the DCCC.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:30:19 AM PDT

  •  MI-Sen, Yes! I just released a diary about Peters (0+ / 0-)

    discussing how Japan's involvement with the TPP could hurt U.S. auto manufacturing jobs:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:35:31 AM PDT

  •  So one of Utah's rising GOP stars (not Mia Love) (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8, ArkDem14, skibum59

    Is screwed, politically. http://www.sltrib.com/...

    Basically, the West Valley City police has had corruption problems before, but after an "accidental" shooting, they were investigated more thoroughly than ever before. Turns out that there were probably around 100 instances of corruption, including possibly planting evidence, taking evidence as "trophies", police brutality, and etc. Most cases have had the now-disbanded West Valley narcotics unit involved. The number of dismissed cases due to police misconduct is now 98, mostly state and drug related charges. This is one of the biggest police corruption charges we've had in decades, if not ever.

    So enter Mayor Mike Winder. He's young, articulate, got 74% of the vote in 2009, has a popular family business, has been featured in a couple of LDS films, etc. But he also has a credibility issue, in that in 2011 or 2012 he used a false name to get pro-West Valley editorials and articles published. His goal was to make West Valley look like it's doing a lot better than it is. Now, even though the City Manager and not the mayor is responsible for city employees, you can imagine what these two scandals within a year of each other did to his reputation.

    Before, he was talked up for any position he wanted. State legislator? Sure. Congressman? Alright. Senator? When Hatch retires, go ahead. Governor? Yup.

    When the false name scandal hit, he narrowly lost the GOP primary for Salt Lake County Mayor, which he should've won (and he would've probably been a stronger candidate against Ben McAdams). Now, unless he's enormously careful with the police scandal, his re-election campaign as mayor of the second largest city in Utah is in danger. Heck, I think that a Democrat might be able to beat him, if they play their cards right.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:38:47 AM PDT

    •  Is West Valley City (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      one of the major SLC suburbs trending Democratic? Is this territory in Matheson's district? You think these issues will spread over and hurt the republican brand, including Mia Love?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:44:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  West Valley should be Democratic already (0+ / 0-)

        As it not only has several Democratic state representatives representing it (though a few Republicans sneaked to a victory in the Romneygeddon), but it also has a 28% Hispanic population, an almost 10% Pacific Islander/Asian population, and a 1.6% Black population. Plus, there's a lot of anger with the (white and mostly Mormon) "good old boys" network that seems to be enabling this corruption in West Valley.

        West Valley is really one of the few SLC suburbs that has its own culture, personality, and industries (most of the other suburb cities have fewer businesses)

        I'm not sure about which Congressional district it's in, though I assume it's in Matheson's district since his website mentions that he held a town hall there. I don't think it'll hurt Love's brand, as she has no tie to West Valley. She's got basically no regional "brand", and doesn't seem to be tied down to any one area in Utah. The fact that Utah County (where her city is located) voted more for her is because Utah County is absurdly conservative, not some "favorite son/daughter" thing.

        I think that if West Valley Dems can GOTV with minorities to boot out Winder, they can probably get those same minorities to vote for Matheson in similar numbers.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:33:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I will say this for Anthony Foxx, if he can indeed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, JGibson, pademocrat

    get elected governor after his term in the cabinet, he'll be in high demand for the national ticket. I'm undecided as to whether I think it will help or hurt his electoral prospects in the primary as it really does just depend on when he runs for office again, if ever and who else runs. I'd sure love to see him run for governor though in 2016 if McCrory tanks and Cooper doesn't run (again) or in 2020 if McCrory is reelected.

    •  He would have to resign in 2015 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      Which he may not want to do. Usually cabinet appointments are assumed to be for 4 years.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:43:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Though he is only 41 so plenty time (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, itskevin

        This could go either way for his future but in terms of possible statewide runs then the cabinet is probably better than replacing Mel Watt.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:48:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think it would be that controversial (0+ / 0-)

        For a Cabinet member to leave early towards the end of a President's second term. I can't find an example, but I'm fairly certain I've heard of it before.

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:03:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't understand what the problem is, (0+ / 0-)

      as it relates to statewide office, with being in the cabinet.

      Obama's term will be over in less than four years. Two to three years after that, animus against him among conservatives will start to wane.

      So I suppose this could hinder Foxx's chances over the next five years or so, but after that? I don't see how we can know how ties to Obama will influence Foxx's standing. Plus, the state will probably keep getting bluer and more non-white, which can't hurt either.

  •  IA-SEN/GOV (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    I can't help bt see similarities between the Iowa climate for republicans and Maine climate for Democrats, everyone's waiting on a specific office holder.  Maine Dems need to know what Collins' intentions are and Iowa Republicans probably won't fully get engaged in the senate race until they know if Branstadt will run again and what, if anything, Steve King will do.  

    NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:44:57 AM PDT

    •  I thought Collins already said she is running (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:48:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't believe she has (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, LordMike

        But I see no real reason why she'd say no. She'll only be 61 by election day, and I've always gotten the sense that she's perfectly content to write sorrowful op-eds in WaPo about the disappearing art of bipartisanship, rather than in actually accomplishing anything. Snowe, I always thought, actually wanted to do things, but she wasn't really all that effective of a legislator and not tough enough to really be an independent actor.

        •  Snowe and the tea party (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          abgin

          Collins always seemed to follow snowe, rarely disagreeing with her, or voting a different way.  There are likely a few exceptions, but for the most part, they were in lockstep.  Now however, she's gone and Collins is on her own.  Will she work to navigate between the twin threats of the Democrats making a legitimate play for her seat and the conservatives/tea party of maine, such as it is, trying to primary her, or will she retire? I could see either one happening.

          NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

          by DougTuttle on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:57:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Isn't Collins more neoconny? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            madmojo, The Caped Composer

            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:59:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  She won't have to navigate hard (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, skibum59

            Democrats won't challenge her with anything other than a sacrificial lamb after what happened to Tom Allen in 2008 of all years. She'd be pretty free to defend her right flank but she hasn't been pulling an Orrin Hatch recently. In our favor though is that the state is cheap for the most part and has closed primaries, but there isn't a Richard Mourdock out there who could do us another solid.

            I'm still in shock whenever I think about how stupid that primary challenge was...

            •  They should (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, abgin, ArkDem14, The Caped Composer

              They really didn't have an issue to use against her in 2008 or 2002. But her vote for the Blunt Amendment should be really damaging. Doubt the top tier would make a shot at it, but it could wind up being like Joe Biden's first election.

            •  the dems had better targets in 2008 (6+ / 0-)

              They don't in 2014.  She is the only republican senator up in 14 from a state obama won, and it's a state that hasn't gone republican in a presidential election since 1988.  What would the Democrat's other senate choices be?  Georgia?  Maybe if the primary goes right and a good dem runs, but even then it'll be uphill.  Kentucky is a possibility, but may be the republican equivalent of NJ, as a possible win that never pans out.  There's not much left for takeovers in 2014, without a LOT of luck and the right candidates.

              NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

              by DougTuttle on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 12:21:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Many people was telling the same two years ago (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ChadmanFL, askew

              about O Snowe. And now.

              •  And she retired... Collins doesn't have (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, skibum59, R30A

                any reason to do so. She doesn't have children, she's only 60, and she's very much a Republican team player when she can afford to be.

                Had Snowe not retired she'd have obliterated her challenger just like she did in 2006. Incumbents with approvals in the mid 60s among Democrats don't lose to a Democrat in the general.

                Someone like Mike Michaud, our strongest possible candidate, just isn't going to run against Collins and we'd get stuck with someone like Cynthia Dill, who while fine for an open seat race, will get no money and get destroyed. The only way this seat is competitive is if Collins loses the primary, which we should absolutely try to ratfuck. It might be one matter if Michaud ran against her, but he just isn't likely going to do that when the governor's race or his house race are far, far easier.

                •  and why O Snowe decides to retire (0+ / 0-)

                  little time before the primary?

                  •  No, try again (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    skibum59

                    You really need to read more sources about Snowe's retirement.  Literally everything you say about the Maine election is falsehood.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                    by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:25:46 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  well then explain you why O Snowe retired (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bfen

                      just here I only tell that many people was telling that O Snowe was unbeatable two years ago. And see now... And this is absolutely true.

                      Also is absolutely true that she raised only $374k this quarter, and only one of the Democratic incumbets raised less than this, and only three of the Democratic incumbents raised less than twice than this. The three in safe situation. And this is also absolutely true.

                      Now you can read in a new down that S Collins is facing attacks from the right and that there is a lot of tension between her and the Paul family. (Remember that Ron Paul takes the votes from Maine in the Republican primary in 2012 with a very good result in Maine). Also this is true.

                      But please if you want you can help explaining why O Snowe decided to retire little time before the primary.

                      •  Why Olympia Snowe retired, in no particular (7+ / 0-)

                        order.

                        1) Decline of moderates in the Senate.  This is the only reason that could apply to Collins, but it had nothing to do with the primary.

                        2) Health issues.  She has chronic arthritis that causes her severe pain.

                        3) Family.  She has one, unlike Collins.

                        Why she didn't:

                        1) Paul family.  Paulists aren't a majority of the primary electorate in any state, and the places they come closest are in the West.

                        2) Money.  She was so well-known and had no strong Democratic opponents so money wasn't an issue.

                        3) Primary.  She was running against nobodys and polling well, unlike Murkowski in 2010.

                        4) Losing the General. She wouldn't have.  Again, polls showed her crushing, and Collins (the more conservative of the two) crushed Allen in a Dem wave year.

                        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                        by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:32:52 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  You need to read it about Ron Paul in Maine 2012 (0+ / 0-)

                          http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                          Fairly weak reasons you give for a retirement when suposedly O Snowe was going to crush everyone in the primary and in the general.

                          She realized of the pain and of the family only two or three months before the primary?

                          Sorry but difficult to trust.

                          •  She got fed up with the Senate (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            LordMike

                            It's one reason we've had so many retirements recently.

                            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                            by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:06:48 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  then (0+ / 0-)

                            you see the part where the R Paul supporters wins 20 of 24 EV in Maine, and you realize about how the Paulist attacks are a serious danger for S Collins (if not she would not be angry).

                            I mean not O Snowe retired by the result of the primary for President, but the timing help to think that it was not only pain, family and fed up with the Senate.

                          •  Paulists didn't win the post-Snowe primary (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            NMLib

                            and the guy who was actually challenging her in the primary, D'Amboise, ended up getting like 11%. There was no threat on that front whatsoever.

                            28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

                            by bumiputera on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 04:20:32 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Charlie Summers was in a middle position (0+ / 0-)

                            Do you know that Charlie Summers endorsed D'Amboise against O Snowe?

                            The Paulists back not him but also attack not him.

                          •  Paulites won a caucus (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            jncca

                            Caucus's strongly favor very motivated supporters, hence why Paul did so well in Maine.

                            Everyone else runs in a primary, which is what Snowe would have done and what Collins will do, so I don't get why you keep bringing up the caucuses like they matter.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 05:51:37 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  This is the way that Maine do their primaries (0+ / 0-)

                            I discuss not it.

                            In a common primary you have the recent case of P LePage, who won the primary for Governor (37.39%) with strong Paulist support.

                            If the Paulists would be not a danger for S Collins, she would not be angry.

                          •  And her direct fight with Rand Paul (0+ / 0-)

                            is a big mistake for her. With that she call strongly for bigger troubles in her primary.

                          •  Outside of presidential races... (0+ / 0-)

                            All other statewide races for Maine are done via primary, not caucus, so bringing up Ron Paul's 21 of 24 delegates (which, by the way, was done through the convention process, not even through the ground-level caucuses, which Romney still ended up winning 38%-36%) is still completely irrelevant to how Susan Collins will do in a primary.

                            But LePage's 37.9% proves nothing, he won in a divided field, no Republican is going to be Susan Collins in a primary unless they can get an outright majority (there isn't going to be anyone serious running against Collins from the left to make the type of victory LePage got at all realistic).

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 02:15:15 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  She pulled an Evan Bayh to our advantage. (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            bumiputera, NMLib

                            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                            by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:03:56 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That was a caucus not a primary... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            bumiputera

                            So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:54:45 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That was the primary (0+ / 0-)

                            I discuss not the way, but this was their primary.

    •  Iowa (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, LordMike

      If Steve King cared about the direction of his party, he would have helped push Tom Latham into the race.  The race between Braley and Latham would be an absolute toss up and maybe with a Slight Lean R in my view, but that's just my gut feeling.  I'm sure someone has data to prove me wrong.

      Look for Matt Whitaker (R), a former U.S. Attorney to get in the race shortly.  He is enough of a mix between establishment/conservative candidate to be a force in the race.  

      Joni Ernst is pretty conservative on all issues.  Her military background may give her a small boost.  

      Jacobs would be smart to stay out.  Energy companies hear it from all sides and he genuinely may lose votes if someone thought their light bill was too high one month and no, I'm not kidding.  

  •  SHOCK: MA officials predict low turnout tomorrow (4+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    Election officials predict fewer than 1 in 5 registered voters may cast ballots in tomorrow's primaries.  Not a surprise, especially since people in Massachusetts have been a little preoccupied in recent weeks to say the least.  

    I'm guessing it'll hurt Lynch's already poor odds.  The people most likely to show up are probably going to be the most committed Democrats, not the independent voters he needs.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:49:45 AM PDT

  •  WV-SEN: I'd really like to see what Manchin's (18+ / 0-)

    approvals are after his leadership on the background checks. And I do think it has been leadership. He seems to have been genuinely affected by Newtown and wanted to do something meaningful.

    He has talked about reintroducing the bill this summer and has said he would debate any GOP senator about the bill.

    I could see his high profile support hurting his numbers in WV, but it also wouldnt surprise me if his approval saw little effect too.

    •  Considering how he literally shot a cap and trade (8+ / 0-)

      bill in a 2010 ad, I don't think anyone can claim he's anti gun. So what if the NRA doesn't give him an A. Normal voters are going to see through that. I think he's going to be senator for a long time and a fairly reliable Democrat at that.

      PPP really needs to poll here though as we haven't had a single good poll since Rockefeller retired. I don't understand why they haven't even been offering it as an option.

      •  Driving the narrative (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, Stephen Schmitz

        PPP may release great, accurate polls, but what they choose to include as options is a reflection of their partisanship.  

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 02:57:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's what saved him that year (0+ / 0-)

        after that ad he regained momentum, and never look. When people who follow politics think of Joe Manchin, that the first first they will remember come to mind. Even when he's long and gone.  

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:35:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Polling WV-Sen (0+ / 0-)

        What would be the point when there's still not a Democratic candidate? A Capito vs. generic D poll helps, sure, but I think the unwillingness of anyone to run (at least so far) tells us more than polling over a year and a half from the election.

        Now polling the 3 US House districts - that could be interesting.

  •  I wonder if red state Democrats should (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, ArkDem14

    stop going after the NRA's endorsement.  The NRA's endorsement has been gold in the past - people like Joe Manchin, Bill Owens, Mark Begich, and Jon Tester probably would not be in Congress right now without it.  But it looks like the NRA has become so controversial and unpopular in recent months that their endorsement could hurt red state Democrats in their base more than it would help them with independents.

  •  LA Mayor (6+ / 0-)

    LA Times sticks with Eric Garcetti and endorses him for the runoff.

    Studying the top five mayoral contenders before the March primary, The Times selected Eric Garcetti as the candidate most likely to rise to the occasion and lead Los Angeles into a successful future.

    Now the runoff between Garcetti and Wendy Greuel is well into the home stretch, and the candidates have been able to focus a bit more on their plans and programs, and on their critiques of each other. Garcetti remains our choice.

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 12:10:40 PM PDT

  •  Is it possible Corbett withdraws? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, LordMike, Gygaxian

    I know he already announced and he should wait a while longer before making a decision, but could he step down from the nomination?

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 01:00:35 PM PDT

  •  It looks like the Colbert/Sanford debate will be (5+ / 0-)

    on CSPAN tonight at 7pm.

  •  Looking at the PA-GOV poll, I hope Dems (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, skibum59, itskevin

    make Medicaid expansion an issue in the 2014 midterms.

    Right now, I think 19 or 20 states(and DC) are likely to have Medicaid expanded next year. That is, these states have governors who support the expansion AND have a legislature  that has already approved expansion or will approve expansion.

    PA and ME both have governors currently opposed to expansion. MI and FL have governors who support expansion, but legislatures blocking the issue.

    The governors in all the states I listed arent really popular to begin with. Dem base turnout is always a problem in midterms, but with Medicaid expansion essentially on the ballot, I think that could help improve turnout and potentially benefit Dems up and down the ballot.

    •  Since the majority of Medicaid patients (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, JBraden

      Are seniors in long-term care, I think it would be a potent political issue if wielded correctly.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:10:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope Dems make Tom Corbett an issue (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      That's the ticket to victory.

      Corbett's reelects and trial heat vote shares in the mid-30s, as an over 2-year incumbent, are disastrous.  Pretty rare for an incumbent to recover from those numbers this far into his term.  And it's harder for a Governor than for a President, since there's a limit to the scope of issues (most importantly, no foreign policy/national security) available to build a message around, and a limit to how much a Governor can drive the news.

      In other words, Tom Corbett will never kill bin Laden.

      I hear you on Medicaid, it's important on the merits.  But it's just one piece of a larger puzzle in beating Corbett.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:17:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is a primary challenge to Collins real? (8+ / 0-)

    She seems to fear one. I don't know if this was discussed, but supposedly, according to the New York Times, a Senate Republican caucus meeting got a little heated when she accused a Rand Paul backed group of running ads against her claiming she wanted to take away people's guns. Rand stormed out in a huff.

    From the NYT:

    The Republican conflict came to the fore last week during a closed-door luncheon for Senate Republicans, when Senator Susan Collins, of Maine, eyes blazing, stood up and complained about a series of attack ads that she was facing back home from a gun-rights group with deep ties to Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky.

    Ms. Collins, who faces re-election next year, said the gun ads were an example of the kind of internal Republican warfare that has hindered the party in Senate races the last two elections. She supports the amendments and other components of the new gun regulations legislation, and she released a lengthy statement on Sunday explaining her thinking.

    Her comments, according to several Republican aides, ignited a tense debate, similar to many the party has faced since its loss in the race for the White House last year. Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, stood to say he had been raising money for Ms. Collins’ re-election, only to watch her have to spend it to defend herself against the attack from the gun group, which has been directed at other members as well.

    I think Susan is realizing this isn't her grandfather's republican party anymore. Would she ever just dump the Republican label and try to run as an independent?

    I also think McConell is loosing control of his caucus, as he seems to be slowly ceding authority to the Lee/Paul/Cruz triumvirate of nuts.

  •  New poll says majority of MN supports gay marriage (8+ / 0-)

    Poll from SurveyUSA/KSTP says 51% favor it now. The Star Tribune poll, which is generally considered to be one of the better polls in MN, had 53% of Minnesotans opposing gay marriage as recent as a few months ago. SurveyUSA, on the other hand, doesn't have a particularly good record in MN.

    LINK

  •  MI-14 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Does Hansen Clarke run for Peters seat? Are there any other possible contenders who could defeat Clarke?

    •  Carolyn Kilpatrick? (0+ / 0-)

      I hope not. She's tainted and she kind of disappeared after she lost in 2010.

      There has got to be a bunch of state senators and representatives in the Detroit area, who'd like to move up.

      I think Clarke will run.

      •  Rashida Tlaib? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BKGyptian89
        •  She's term limited in '14 (0+ / 0-)

          personally I would love to see a Muslim woman run. I think she would be a great candidate.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:52:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Clarke doesn't run, she'd be a good choice (0+ / 0-)

            Though I imagine Brenda Lawrence will run and suck all the oxygen out of the room.

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:12:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Lawrence's 2012 run wasn't exactly impressive (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              drhoosierdem

              She only won 13% in the primary and raised a total of $135K.  Yes, she was running against two incumbents but I don't think that result will scare off anyone.

              23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

              by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:47:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Doubt it (0+ / 0-)

              I like Brenda, I really do, but she has proven on two very prominent occasions, now (i.e. run with Virg for governor and her race for MI-14), that she has absolutely no pull outside of her city for whatever reason.  That's not to say she isn't a factor in the primary, but she plays the role of spoiler and little more.

              I'd like to see someone respresent the district who actually lives in it, and preferably a Detroiter.  Brenda was the only candidate in the last go-around that lived there, but, again, she doesn't really have pull outside of Southfield.

        •  Rashida is great (0+ / 0-)

          Disclaimer: I am Muslim and have campaigned for her.

          She is one of the most progressive and hard working members of the Michigan State House. I believe she technically lives in the 13th, and I think she might have an easier time winning that than the 14th. She also has some young children. I am not sure if she wants to run, but I know people that would love to see her run for Congress.

          I am unsure about her political future. It will be tough to move into the State Senate. I think she lives in the 4th State Senate district which has Virgil Smith. She represents more of district 1. That is Coleman Young Jr's district. Either way she would have to take on an incumbent unless they run for Congress.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:56:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I hope to see him running fast (0+ / 0-)

      It would be good news.

    •  I posted some names before (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      but here are the people that haven't been discussed today.

      1) State Senator Bert Johnson. Challenged Conyers but represents more of the 14th. He got into trouble when he was young, but turned his life around. He has a great story.

      2) Former State Senator Buzz Thomas. Random fact: He is the grandson of Willis Ward, the second African American to play football that the University of Michigan. Ward was a close friend of Gerald Ford.

      3) State Representative Vicki Barnett. Gary Peters put her name out there for Governor. If Mark Schauer clears that primary field, I could see her running for this.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:16:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-1 debate stream link (5+ / 0-)

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:32:29 PM PDT

  •  SC-01: Immigration reform (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Both candidates asked about the Gang of 8 proposal. Moderator calls it the Graham proposal.

    Sanford says he would oppose proposal as it is presently. Says enforcement should come first, then talk about amnesty. 1986 bill signed by Reagan didnt work.

    ECB says you cant send back 11 million, need tough and fair reform, they should pay fine, back taxes, etc and be able to say. Says she would support the Graham bill when directly asled. But hasnt seen it yet.  Likes what she has seen of it.

    •  Now it's to the Charleston Port deepening (0+ / 0-)

      she's speaking about the benefits of it, but he's just saying he would bring seniority and made some vague statement about a 500 buck contribution she made in his run for governor (yeah, so?).  They seem to have dynamic chemistry.

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:19:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-01: Port of Charleston expansion (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Gygaxian

    How do you convince reps from other states to support this?

    ECB: We need to be ready for global growth. Sanford was only Congressman(from SC?) who voted against dredging the port. Applause.

    Sanford: You wrote $500 check to me after I voted that way. Huge applause.

    Moderator asks for specific answer. Sanford says he has same position as Tim Scott. Then talks about how he would have seniority.

    ECB smiles and says, "I would like to rebut"

    You and I met Mark,  you said you would support dredging, and you didnt tell the truth! Huge applause!

    Sanford repeats that if it bothered you so much, why would you write me the check. Some ooos(boos?) and some applause.

    I think ECB slightly won that exchange.

  •  Ugh Sc-01 health care (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, jj32

    ...Democrats would probably do better if they didn't spout the same bullshit republican talking points

    We only think nothing goes without saying.

    by Hamtree on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:23:59 PM PDT

  •  SC-01: Healthcare reform (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin

    Sanford against it completely, would vote to defund.

    ECB says it is very problematic, businesses laying off because of it. But it does a lot of good. Prevents denial based on pre-exisiting. Couldnt charge more for being a woman. I support the hospital association to expand Medicaid. Applause after each statement.

    Sanford: All the Dem reps who did fundraiser for you supported ACA. Nancy Pelosi running ads for you. Big commotion here.

    ECB: I want to rebut. "Mark, Nobody tells me what to do!" Oh snap, that was great. Says she is independent, fiscally conservative, pushed back on Obama budget, so she can be independent.
     

  •  SC-01: Entitlement reform (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Gygaxian, lordpet8

    ECB: SS solvent for 20 years. Need bipartisan meeting like Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan.

    Medicare cant negotiate drug prices like VA. Something about Obamacare cutting Medicare. No applause. ECB a little incoherent here.

    Sanford: Block grants for Medicaid. Premium support for Medicare. Individualized accounts for SS. SS trust fund has been robbed from need to stop. Applause.

    ECB: Couldnt not disagree more. Dont privatize SS. Elderly would have lost half of investment in 2008 crash.

    Sanford: Some TX counties created their own SS accounts, but wasnt in the stock market. Investment protected. Big applause.

  •  SC-1: ECB eluded to the infamous trip (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, jj32, itskevin

    Sanford claimed he didn't hear what she said....

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:34:19 PM PDT

  •  SC-01: Education (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    ECB: proud parent of kids who went to public schools. Dont support vouchers. We need to focus on math, science, for careers of the future. Program at the Citadel helping with that.

    Sanford: increased funding per student to public schools(I think), helped focus on technical education. Everyone is different, different careers choices.

    ECB: Something wrong with turning down our tax dollars for education when our system is only . Huge applause. I think she is referring to Race to the Top/stimulus.

    Sanford: More debt isnt the answer. Dont borrow from Chinese.

  •  I don't think Sanford's constant harping on Pelosi (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, askew

    Is going to help him at all.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 04:41:27 PM PDT

  •  And it's done. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Darth Jeff, jj32, psychicpanda

    I'd say ECB is the narrow winner as she had a few weak spots, but was pretty strong otherwise and Sanford had to repeat.  She should have pointed out to Sanford that DOMA is an intrusion of federal into what is a state power and that his voting for it makes him a hypocrite (not using that word).

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:11:45 PM PDT

  •  The calculus of Fair Vote is very good (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, WisJohn, Joe Cooper, GloFish

    in terms of do the calculus for relative positions, from a basis of a 50% fot the overall Democratic vote.

    I like.

    This would be a table with their most basical data ordered by the numerical calculus for the projection.

        State    CD    Incumbent    Party    Projected D %
    1    New York    15    Serrano, Jose    (D)    96.8%
    2    New York    7    Velazquez, Nydia    (D)    93.7%
    3    New York    13    Rangel, Charlie    (D)    92.6%
    4    California    13    Lee, Barbara    (D)    91.7%
    5    New York    8    Jeffries, Hakeem    (D)    91.5%
    6    Pennsylvania    2    Fattah, Chaka    (D)    90.5%
    7    New York    5    Meeks, Gregory    (D)    90.1%
    8    Florida    24    Wilson, Frederica    (D)    89.6%
    9    New York    9    Clarke, Yvette    (D)    88.1%
    10    California    37    Bass, Karen    (D)    87.8%
    11    New Jersey    10    Payne, Donald    (D)    87.1%
    12    Illinois    7    Davis, Danny    (D)    86.9%
    13    California    34    Becerra, Xavier    (D)    85.7%
    14    Massachusetts    7    Capuano, Mike    (D)    85.4%
    15    Ohio    11    Fudge, Marcia    (D)    85.3%
    16    California    12    Pelosi, Nancy    (D)    85.0%
    17    California    40    Roybal-Allard, Lucille    (D)    84.4%
    18    Florida    20    Hastings, Alcee    (D)    84.1%
    19    Michigan    13    Conyers, John    (D)    83.8%
    20    New York    14    Crowley, Joe    (D)    83.7%
    21    Pennsylvania    1    Brady, Bob    (D)    83.4%
    22    Illinois    4    Gutierrez, Luis    (D)    82.9%
    23    Georgia    5    Lewis, John    (D)    81.6%
    24    California    44    Hahn, Janice    (D)    81.5%
    25    California    43    Waters, Maxine    (D)    80.7%
    26    Michigan    14    Peters, Gary    (D)    80.4%
    27    Washington    7    McDermott, Jim    (D)    79.7%
    28    Maryland    4    Edwards, Donna    (D)    79.6%
    29    Missouri    1    Clay, Lacy    (D)    79.6%
    30    New Jersey    8    Sires, Albio    (D)    79.6%
    31    Texas    30    Johnson, E.B.    (D)    79.5%
    32    Illinois    2    Kelly, Robin    (D)    79.4%
    33    Texas    9    Green, Al    (D)    79.2%
    34    New York    12    Maloney, Carolyn    (D)    79.1%
    35    Louisiana    2    Richmond, Cedric    (D)    78.9%
    36    Virginia    3    Scott, Bobby    (D)    78.8%
    37    New York    10    Nadler, Jerrold    (D)    78.3%
    38    California    14    Speier, Jackie    (D)    78.2%
    39    Maryland    7    Cummings, Elijah    (D)    77.5%
    40    California    29    Cardenas, Tony    (D)    77.0%
    41    Oregon    3    Blumenauer, Earl    (D)    77.0%
    42    Illinois    1    Rush, Bobby    (D)    76.9%
    43    New York    16    Engel, Eliot    (D)    76.9%
    44    Tennessee    9    Cohen, Steve    (D)    76.4%
    45    North Carolina    12    Watt, Mel    (D)    76.3%
    46    Alabama    7    Sewell, Terri    (D)    76.1%
    47    Arizona    7    Pastor, Ed    (D)    75.6%
    48    Texas    18    Jackson-Lee, Sheila    (D)    75.3%
    49    Minnesota    5    Ellison, Keith    (D)    74.6%
    50    California    6    Matsui, Doris    (D)    74.2%
    51    California    19    Lofgren, Zoe    (D)    73.8%
    52    Pennsylvania    14    Doyle, Michael    (D)    73.6%
    53    Georgia    4    Johnson, Hank    (D)    73.4%
    54    Wisconsin    4    Moore, Gwen    (D)    73.4%
    55    California    28    Schiff, Adam    (D)    73.3%
    56    California    17    Honda, Michael    (D)    72.5%
    57    California    5    Thompson, Mike    (D)    72.4%
    58    South Carolina    6    Clyburn, Jim    (D)    72.4%
    59    California    20    Farr, Sam    (D)    72.3%
    60    Hawaii    2    Gabbard, Tulsi    (D)    72.3%
    61    Massachusetts    8    Lynch, Stephen    (D)    72.2%
    62    North Carolina    1    Butterfield, G.K.    (D)    71.8%
    63    Vermont    AL    Welch, Peter    (D)    71.6%
    64    Massachusetts    5    Markey, Ed    (D)    71.4%
    65    Texas    33    Veasey, Mark    (D)    71.4%
    66    New Jersey    9    Pascrell, Bill    (D)    71.1%
    67    Georgia    13    Scott, David    (D)    70.6%
    68    California    30    Sherman, Brad    (D)    70.5%
    69    New York    26    Higgins, Brian    (D)    70.5%
    70    Colorado    1    DeGette, Diana    (D)    70.4%
    71    Ohio    9    Kaptur, Marcy    (D)    70.4%
    72    Connecticut    3    DeLauro, Rosa    (D)    70.3%
    73    California    18    Eshoo, Anna    (D)    70.2%
    74    Florida    5    Brown, Corrine    (D)    70.0%
    75    North Carolina    4    Price, David    (D)    69.9%
    76    California    2    Huffman, Jared    (D)    69.8%
    77    Illinois    5    Quigley, Mike    (D)    69.8%
    78    Texas    29    Green, Gene    (D)    69.5%
    79    Ohio    3    Beatty, Joyce    (D)    69.4%
    80    California    51    Vargas, Juan    (D)    69.2%
    81    Maryland    5    Hoyer, Steny    (D)    69.0%
    82    Ohio    13    Ryan, Tim    (D)    68.9%
    83    California    11    Miller, George    (D)    68.7%
    84    California    15    Swalwell, Eric    (D)    67.9%
    85    California    32    Napolitano, Grace    (D)    67.7%
    86    Illinois    3    Lipinski, Dan    (D)    67.6%
    87    New Jersey    1    Andrews, Rob    (D)    67.5%
    88    Washington    9    Smith, Adam    (D)    67.5%
    89    Wisconsin    2    Pocan, Mark    (D)    67.5%
    90    Maryland    2    Ruppersberger, Dutch    (D)    67.3%
    91    California    35    Negrete McLeod, Gloria    (D)    67.2%
    92    New York    6    Meng, Grace    (D)    67.2%
    93    California    38    Sanchez, Linda    (D)    67.0%
    94    Connecticut    1    Larson, John    (D)    66.9%
    95    Maryland    8    Van Hollen, Chris    (D)    66.7%
    96    Maryland    3    Sarbanes, John    (D)    66.6%
    97    Mississippi    2    Thompson, Bennie    (D)    66.4%
    98    Virginia    8    Moran, Jim    (D)    66.1%
    99    Florida    14    Castor, Kathy    (D)    66.0%
    100    Michigan    12    Dingell, John    (D)    66.0%
    101    Pennsylvania    13    Schwartz, Allyson    (D)    66.0%
    102    Illinois    9    Schakowsky, Jan    (D)    65.9%
    103    New Jersey    12    Holt, Rush    (D)    65.8%
    104    California    27    Chu, Judy    (D)    65.7%
    105    Massachusetts    1    Neal, Richard    (D)    65.7%
    106    Nevada    1    Titus, Dina    (D)    65.4%
    107    Texas    28    Cuellar, Henry    (D)    65.1%
    108    Florida    21    Deutch, Ted    (D)    64.8%
    109    Minnesota    4    McCollum, Betty    (D)    64.8%
    110    California    33    Waxman, Henry    (D)    64.7%
    111    New York    20    Tonko, Paul    (D)    64.6%
    112    Connecticut    2    Courtney, Joe    (D)    64.5%
    113    Indiana    1    Visclosky, Pete    (D)    64.3%
    114    Texas    16    O'Rourke, Beto    (D)    63.8%
    115    Delaware    AL    Carney, John    (D)    63.5%
    116    Texas    35    Doggett, Lloyd    (D)    63.1%
    117    Florida    23    Wasserman Schultz, Debbie    (D)    62.7%
    118    Rhode Island    2    Langevin, Jim    (D)    62.7%
    119    New York    17    Lowey, Nita    (D)    62.5%
    120    Tennessee    5    Cooper, Jim    (D)    62.2%
    121    Massachusetts    2    McGovern, Jim    (D)    62.1%
    122    California    46    Sanchez, Loretta    (D)    62.0%
    123    Michigan    9    Levin, Sander    (D)    62.0%
    124    California    53    Davis, Susan    (D)    61.9%
    125    Maine    1    Pingree, Chellie    (D)    61.7%
    126    New Jersey    6    Pallone, Frank    (D)    61.5%
    127    Massachusetts    3    Tsongas, Niki    (D)    61.4%
    128    Indiana    7    Carson, Andre    (D)    61.3%
    129    Massachusetts    9    Keating, Bill    (D)    61.2%
    130    Florida    9    Grayson, Alan    (D)    61.1%
    131    Michigan    5    Kildee, Dan    (D)    60.9%
    132    California    41    Takano, Mark    (D)    60.8%
    133    Kentucky    3    Yarmuth, John    (D)    60.7%
    134    New Mexico    3    Lujan, Ben    (D)    60.4%
    135    Texas    34    Vela, Filemon    (D)    60.3%
    136    New York    4    McCarthy, Carolyn    (D)    60.2%
    137    Georgia    2    Bishop, Sanford    (D)    60.0%
    138    Virginia    11    Connolly, Gerry    (D)    60.0%
    139    Texas    15    Hinojosa, Ruben    (D)    59.8%
    140    Arizona    3    Grijalva, Raul    (D)    59.7%
    141    Hawaii    1    Hanabusa, Colleen    (D)    59.7%
    142    California    47    Lowenthal, Alan    (D)    59.3%
    143    Texas    20    Castro, Joaquin    (D)    59.2%
    144    Minnesota    7    Peterson, Collin    (D)    59.0%
    145    New York    25    Slaughter, Louise    (D)    58.9%
    146    Rhode Island    1    Cicilline, David    (D)    58.9%
    147    Colorado    2    Polis, Jared    (D)    58.8%
    148    Missouri    5    Cleaver, Emanuel    (D)    58.7%
    149    Washington    2    Larsen, Rick    (D)    58.5%
    150    Wisconsin    3    Kind, Ron    (D)    58.5%
    151    Illinois    11    Foster, Bill    (D)    58.0%
    152    Oregon    1    Bonamici, Suzanne    (D)    57.6%
    153    Oregon    4    DeFazio, Peter    (D)    57.5%
    154    Massachusetts    4    Kennedy, Joe    (D)    57.4%
    155    Illinois    8    Duckworth, Tammy    (D)    57.1%
    156    Illinois    17    Bustos, Cheri    (D)    57.1%
    157    New Mexico    1    Lujan Grisham, Michelle    (D)    56.8%
    158    Maine    2    Michaud, Mike    (D)    56.6%
    159    New York    24    Maffei, Dan    (D)    56.6%
    160    Colorado    7    Perlmutter, Ed    (D)    56.5%
    161    Illinois    10    Schneider, Brad    (D)    56.5%
    162    Maryland    6    Delaney, John    (D)    56.5%
    163    Washington    10    Heck, Denny    (D)    56.5%
    164    Connecticut    4    Himes, Jim    (D)    56.4%
    165    Washington    6    Kilmer, Derek    (D)    56.4%
    166    New York    3    Israel, Steve    (D)    56.1%
    167    California    16    Costa, Jim    (D)    55.9%
    168    Pennsylvania    17    Cartwright, Matt    (D)    55.4%
    169    California    9    McNerney, Jerry    (D)    55.3%
    170    California    24    Capps, Lois    (D)    55.3%
    171    Iowa    1    Braley, Bruce    (D)    55.3%
    172    California    3    Garamendi, John    (D)    55.2%
    173    Minnesota    1    Walz, Tim    (D)    55.0%
    174    Iowa    2    Loebsack, David    (D)    54.8%
    175    Nevada    4    Horsford, Steven    (D)    53.9%
    176    New Hampshire    2    Kuster, Annie    (D)    53.9%
    177    Oregon    5    Schrader, Kurt    (D)    53.9%
    178    Washington    1    DelBene, Suzan    (D)    53.9%
    179    California    26    Brownley, Julia    (D)    53.5%
    180    Florida    22    Frankel, Lois    (D)    53.5%
    181    Massachusetts    6    Tierney, John    (D)    53.2%
    182    Florida    26    Garcia, Joe    (D)    53.1%
    183    Connecticut    5    Esty, Elizabeth    (D)    52.8%
    184    Minnesota    8    Nolan, Rick    (D)    52.4%
    185    California    52    Peters, Scott    (D)    52.3%
    186    Georgia    12    Barrow, John    (D)    51.7%
    187    New York    18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    51.5%
    188    New York    21    Owens, Bill    (D)    51.5%
    189    California    7    Bera, Ami    (D)    51.4%
    190    New York    1    Bishop, Tim    (D)    51.3%
    191    California    36    Ruiz, Raul    (D)    51.2%
    192    Arizona    9    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)    51.0%
    193    Arizona    2    Barber, Ron    (D)    50.9%
    194    California    21    Valadao, David    (R)    50.9%
    195    New Hampshire    1    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)    50.4%
    196    West Virginia    3    Rahall, Nick    (D)    50.4%
    197    California    31    Miller, Gary    (R)    50.1%
    198    Illinois    12    Enyart, William    (D)    50.1%
    199    North Carolina    7    McIntyre, Mike    (D)    48.9%
    200    Texas    23    Gallego, Pete    (D)    48.7%
    201    Arizona    1    Kirkpatrick, Ann    (D)    48.0%
    202    Florida    18    Murphy, Patrick    (D)    47.7%

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    203    Illinois    13    Davis, Rodney    (R)    47.2%
    204    Utah    4    Matheson, Jim    (D)    46.8%
    205    New York    11    Grimm, Michael    (R)    46.1%
    206    Minnesota    6    Bachmann, Michele    (R)    45.9%
    207    New York    23    Reed, Tom    (R)    45.6%
    208    Colorado    6    Coffman, Mike    (R)    45.1%
    209    Michigan    1    Benishek, Dan    (R)    45.1%
    210    Nebraska    2    Terry, Lee    (R)    45.0%
    211    Iowa    3    Latham, Tom    (R)    44.8%
    212    New Jersey    3    Runyan, Jon    (R)    44.8%
    213    New York    19    Gibson, Chris    (R)    44.8%
    214    Ohio    14    Joyce, David    (R)    44.7%
    215    Nevada    3    Heck, Joe    (R)    44.2%
    216    Florida    7    Mica, John    (R)    44.1%

    217    Minnesota    2    Kline, John    (R)    43.8%
    218    Washington    8    Reichert, David    (R)    43.6%
    219    Florida    2    Southerland, Steve    (R)    43.5%
    220    California    10    Denham, Jeff    (R)    43.4%
    221    California    25    McKeon, Buck    (R)    43.4%
    222    Virginia    2    Rigell, Scott    (R)    43.4%
    223    Michigan    11    Bentivolio, Kerry    (R)    43.3%
    224    Florida    25    Diaz-Balart, Mario    (R)    43.2%
    225    Ohio    6    Johnson, Bill    (R)    42.8%
    226    Michigan    7    Walberg, Tim    (R)    42.6%
    227    Pennsylvania    15    Dent, Charlie    (R)    42.6%
    228    Wisconsin    7    Duffy, Sean    (R)    42.6%
    229    Virginia    5    Hurt, Robert    (R)    42.5%
    230    Colorado    3    Tipton, Scott    (R)    42.4%
    231    Pennsylvania    6    Gerlach, Jim    (R)    42.4%
    232    South Carolina    7    Rice, Tom    (R)    42.3%
    233    Virginia    4    Forbes, Randy    (R)    42.2%
    234    Florida    15    Ross, Dennis    (R)    42.0%
    235    Iowa    4    King, Steve    (R)    41.9%
    236    Pennsylvania    8    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)    41.9%
    237    Minnesota    3    Paulsen, Erik    (R)    41.8%
    238    New Jersey    5    Garrett, Scott    (R)    41.7%
    239    Washington    3    Herrera Beutler, Jaime    (R)    41.7%
    240    Michigan    3    Amash, Justin    (R)    41.5%
    241    Florida    10    Webster, Dan    (R)    41.4%
    242    North Carolina    13    Holding, George    (R)    41.4%
    243    Ohio    2    Wenstrup, Brad    (R)    41.4%
    244    South Carolina    5    Mulvaney, Mick    (R)    41.4%
    245    Indiana    2    Walorski, Jackie    (R)    41.3%
    246    New Jersey    7    Lance, Leonard    (R)    41.3%
    247    New York    27    Collins, Chris    (R)    41.3%
    248    North Carolina    9    Pittenger, Robert    (R)    41.2%
    249    Wisconsin    8    Ribble, Reid    (R)    41.2%
    250    Michigan    6    Upton, Fred    (R)    41.1%
    251    Florida    16    Buchanan, Vern    (R)    41.0%
    252    Florida    13    Young, Bill    (R)    40.9%
    253    South Dakota    AL    Noem, Kristi    (R)    40.8%
    254    Montana    AL    Daines, Steve    (R)    40.7%
    255    Pennsylvania    7    Meehan, Pat    (R)    40.7%
    256    Kentucky    6    Barr, Andy    (R)    40.6%
    257    Ohio    7    Gibbs, Bob    (R)    40.6%
    258    Arkansas    1    Crawford, Rick    (R)    40.5%
    259    California    8    Cook, Paul    (R)    40.5%
    260    California    42    Calvert, Ken    (R)    40.5%
    261    New York    22    Hanna, Richard    (R)    40.4%
    262    North Carolina    2    Ellmers, Renee    (R)    40.4%
    263    Virginia    1    Wittman, Rob    (R)    40.4%
    264    California    39    Royce, Ed    (R)    40.3%
    265    New Jersey    2    LoBiondo, Frank    (R)    40.2%
    266    California    49    Issa, Darrell    (R)    40.1%
    267    Indiana    9    Young, Todd    (R)    40.1%
    268    Arkansas    2    Griffin, Tim    (R)    40.0%
    269    Pennsylvania    16    Pitts, Joe    (R)    40.0%
    270    California    45    Campbell, John    (R)    39.9%
    271    North Carolina    5    Foxx, Virginia    (R)    39.9%
    272    Wisconsin    1    Ryan, Paul    (R)    39.8%
    273    Indiana    8    Bucshon, Larry    (R)    39.7%
    274    New Mexico    2    Pearce, Steve    (R)    39.7%
    275    New York    2    King, Peter    (R)    39.6%
    276    Pennsylvania    3    Kelly, Mike    (R)    39.6%
    277    Virginia    7    Cantor, Eric    (R)    39.5%
    278    Virginia    10    Wolf, Frank    (R)    39.5%
    279    California    1    LaMalfa, Doug    (R)    39.4%
    280    Florida    6    DeSantis, Ron    (R)    39.4%
    281    Ohio    16    Renacci, Jim    (R)    39.3%
    282    Pennsylvania    12    Rothfus, Keith    (R)    39.3%
    283    West Virginia    1    McKinley, David    (R)    39.2%
    284    Illinois    14    Hultgren, Randy    (R)    39.1%
    285    North Carolina    10    McHenry, Patrick    (R)    39.1%
    286    Ohio    1    Chabot, Steve    (R)    39.0%
    287    South Carolina    1    VACANT        39.0%
    288    Missouri    2    Wagner, Ann    (R)    38.9%
    289    New Jersey    11    Frelinghuysen, Rodney    (R)    38.9%
    290    North Carolina    8    Hudson, Richard    (R)    38.9%
    291    South Carolina    2    Wilson, Joe    (R)    38.9%
    292    California    48    Rohrabacher, Dana    (R)    38.8%
    293    Kansas    2    Jenkins, Lynn    (R)    38.8%
    294    Kansas    3    Yoder, Kevin    (R)    38.8%
    295    Pennsylvania    4    Perry, Scott    (R)    38.7%
    296    Florida    27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)    38.6%
    297    Indiana    5    Brooks, Susan    (R)    38.6%
    298    Texas    32    Sessions, Pete    (R)    38.6%
    299    Illinois    6    Roskam, Peter    (R)    38.5%
    300    Ohio    12    Tiberi, Patrick    (R)    38.5%
    301    Pennsylvania    11    Barletta, Lou    (R)    38.5%
    302    Washington    5    McMorris Rodgers, Cathy    (R)    38.5%
    303    Michigan    8    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)    38.4%
    304    Ohio    10    Turner, Michael    (R)    38.4%
    305    Tennessee    4    DesJarlais, Scott    (R)    38.4%
    306    Texas    14    Weber, Randy    (R)    38.3%
    307    Texas    27    Farenthold, Blake    (R)    38.3%
    308    Texas    6    Barton, Joe    (R)    38.2%
    309    Alabama    2    Roby, Martha    (R)    37.9%
    310    Florida    17    Rooney, Tom    (R)    37.9%
    311    North Dakota    AL    Cramer, Kevin    (R)    37.9%
    312    Virginia    9    Griffith, Morgan    (R)    37.7%
    313    Missouri    4    Hartzler, Vicki    (R)    37.6%
    314    Florida    8    Posey, Bill    (R)    37.5%
    315    Ohio    15    Stivers, Steve    (R)    37.4%
    316    Ohio    5    Latta, Bob    (R)    37.1%
    317    California    4    McClintock, Tom    (R)    37.0%
    318    Alabama    3    Rogers, Mike D.    (R)    36.9%
    319    California    22    Nunes, Devin    (R)    36.8%
    320    Illinois    16    Kinzinger, Adam    (R)    36.8%
    321    Oklahoma    5    Lankford, James    (R)    36.7%
    322    Georgia    1    Kingston, Jack    (R)    36.5%
    323    Mississippi    1    Nunnelee, Alan    (R)    36.5%
    324    North Carolina    11    Meadows, Mark    (R)    36.5%
    325    Colorado    4    Gardner, Cory    (R)    36.4%
    326    Nevada    2    Amodei, Mark    (R)    36.4%
    327    Texas    25    Williams, Roger    (R)    36.4%
    328    Louisiana    4    Fleming, John    (R)    36.2%
    329    Florida    19    Radel, Trey    (R)    36.1%
    330    Texas    10    McCaul, Michael    (R)    36.1%
    331    North Carolina    6    Coble, Howard    (R)    35.8%
    332    Ohio    4    Jordan, Jim    (R)    35.8%
    333    Wisconsin    6    Petri, Tom    (R)    35.8%
    334    Alabama    5    Brooks, Mo    (R)    35.7%
    335    Indiana    6    Messer, Luke    (R)    35.7%
    336    Pennsylvania    18    Murphy, Tim    (R)    35.5%
    337    Arizona    6    Schweikert, David    (R)    35.2%
    338    Georgia    8    Scott, Austin    (R)    35.1%
    339    Mississippi    3    Harper, Gregg    (R)    35.1%
    340    Georgia    7    Woodall, Rob    (R)    35.0%
    341    Pennsylvania    5    Thompson, Glenn    (R)    35.0%
    342    Arizona    8    Franks, Trent    (R)    34.9%
    343    Texas    7    Culberson, John    (R)    34.9%
    344    Michigan    4    Camp, David    (R)    34.8%
    345    North Carolina    3    Jones, Walter    (R)    34.8%
    346    Pennsylvania    10    Marino, Tom    (R)    34.8%
    347    Florida    3    Yoho, Ted    (R)    34.7%
    348    Arkansas    4    Cotton, Tom    (R)    34.6%
    349    New Jersey    4    Smith, Chris    (R)    34.6%
    350    Colorado    5    Lamborn, Doug    (R)    34.5%
    351    Pennsylvania    9    Schuster, Bill    (R)    34.5%
    352    Texas    24    Marchant, Kenny    (R)    34.4%
    353    Texas    21    Smith, Lamar    (R)    34.3%
    354    Texas    31    Carter, John    (R)    34.3%
    355    Texas    17    Flores, Bill    (R)    34.2%
    356    Washington    4    Hastings, Doc    (R)    34.0%
    357    Florida    12    Bilirakis, Gus    (R)    33.9%
    358    Kansas    4    Pompeo, Mike    (R)    33.9%
    359    Mississippi    4    Palazzo, Steven    (R)    33.9%
    360    Virginia    6    Goodlatte, Bob    (R)    33.9%
    361    Michigan    2    Huizenga, Bill    (R)    33.8%
    362    Tennessee    3    Fleischmann, Chuck    (R)    33.7%
    363    Florida    11    Nugent, Rich    (R)    33.6%
    364    Idaho    1    Labrador, Raul    (R)    33.6%
    365    Alaska    AL    Young, Don    (R)    33.5%
    366    Georgia    6    Price, Tom    (R)    33.4%
    367    South Carolina    3    Duncan, Jeff    (R)    33.3%
    368    Georgia    10    Broun, Paul    (R)    33.2%
    369    Kentucky    4    Massie, Thomas    (R)    33.1%
    370    Kentucky    2    Guthrie, Brett    (R)    33.0%
    371    Ohio    8    Boehner, John    (R)    33.0%
    372    Maryland    1    Harris, Andy    (R)    32.9%
    373    California    50    Hunter, Duncan    (R)    32.7%
    374    Louisiana    5    Alexander, Rodney    (R)    32.6%
    375    Texas    22    Olson, Pete    (R)    32.5%
    376    Arizona    5    Salmon, Matt    (R)    32.4%
    377    Missouri    6    Graves, Sam    (R)    32.4%
    378    Alabama    1    Bonner, Jo    (R)    32.1%
    379    Missouri    3    Luetkemeyer, Blaine    (R)    32.1%
    380    Texas    5    Hensarling, Jeb    (R)    32.1%
    381    Nebraska    1    Fortenberry, Jeff    (R)    32.0%
    382    South Carolina    4    Gowdy, Trey    (R)    32.0%
    383    California    23    McCarthy, Kevin    (R)    31.6%
    384    Idaho    2    Simpson, Mike    (R)    31.6%
    385    Indiana    3    Stutzman, Marlin    (R)    31.6%
    386    Oklahoma    1    Bridenstine, Jim    (R)    31.5%
    387    Texas    2    Poe, Ted    (R)    31.4%
    388    Wisconsin    5    Sensenbrenner, Jim    (R)    31.4%
    389    Missouri    8    VACANT        31.1%
    390    Indiana    4    Rokita, Todd    (R)    31.0%
    391    Arizona    4    Gosar, Paul    (R)    30.9%
    392    West Virginia    2    Capito, Shelley Moore    (R)    30.9%
    393    Oklahoma    2    Mullin, Markwayne    (R)    30.8%
    394    Texas    3    Johnson, Sam    (R)    30.7%
    395    Tennessee    8    Fincher, Steve    (R)    30.5%
    396    Missouri    7    Long, Billy    (R)    30.3%
    397    Georgia    3    Westmoreland, Lynn    (R)    30.2%
    398    Michigan    10    Miller, Candice    (R)    30.2%
    399    Florida    4    Crenshaw, Ander    (R)    30.1%
    400    Oregon    2    Walden, Greg    (R)    30.1%
    401    Louisiana    6    Cassidy, Bill    (R)    29.9%
    402    Kentucky    1    Whitfield, Ed    (R)    29.7%
    403    Illinois    15    Shimkus, John    (R)    29.6%
    404    Texas    26    Burgess, Michael    (R)    29.1%
    405    Utah    2    Stewart, Chris    (R)    28.6%
    406    Georgia    11    Gingrey, Phil    (R)    28.4%
    407    Louisiana    3    Boustany, Charles    (R)    27.4%
    408    Oklahoma    4    Cole, Tom    (R)    27.4%
    409    Arkansas    3    Womack, Steve    (R)    27.3%
    410    Texas    12    Granger, Kay    (R)    27.2%
    411    Tennessee    7    Blackburn, Marsha    (R)    26.7%
    412    Illinois    18    Schock, Aaron    (R)    26.6%
    413    Florida    1    Miller, Jeff    (R)    25.9%
    414    Wyoming    AL    Lummis, Cynthia    (R)    25.9%
    415    Tennessee    6    Black, Diane    (R)    25.5%
    416    Nebraska    3    Smith, Adrian    (R)    24.4%
    417    Texas    1    Gohmert, Louie    (R)    24.2%
    418    Texas    36    Stockman, Steve    (R)    23.8%
    419    Texas    4    Hall, Ralph    (R)    23.7%
    420    Alabama    6    Bachus, Spencer    (R)    23.5%
    421    Louisiana    1    Scalise, Steve    (R)    23.4%
    422    Kansas    1    Huelskamp, Tim    (R)    23.2%
    423    Georgia    14    Graves, Tom    (R)    23.1%
    424    Utah    1    Bishop, Rob    (R)    23.0%
    425    Oklahoma    3    Lucas, Frank    (R)    22.2%
    426    Alabama    4    Aderholt, Rob    (R)    21.8%
    427    Utah    3    Chaffetz, Jason    (R)    21.7%
    428    Kentucky    5    Rogers, Hal    (R)    21.5%
    429    Texas    19    Neugebauer, Randy    (R)    21.4%
    430    Tennessee    2    Duncan, John    (R)    20.7%
    431    Tennessee    1    Roe, Phil    (R)    20.2%
    432    Texas    8    Brady, Kevin    (R)    19.9%
    433    Georgia    9    Collins, Doug    (R)    19.0%
    434    Texas    11    Conaway, Michael    (R)    17.8%
    435    Texas    13    Thornberry, Mac    (R)    13.4%

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    My numbers agree in many things with their work:

    1.- Their numbers and my numbers tell that is easier for every party to keep their incumbents than to go after new seats. To lose some incumbent this cycle will mean very few gains this cycle.

    2.- Taking their 15 most weak Republican seats and my 15 most weak Republican seat, we have 12 that are the same: CA-31, CA-21, CO-06, NY-19, IL-13, NV-03, IA-03, NJ-03, NY-11, NY-23, MI-01 and NE-02. (They also have MN-06, OH-14 and FL-07, while I have NY-02, CA-10 and MI-11). Keep one eye on these districts (bolded) plus some interesting open seat.

    3.- Four of the five D+ Republican seats are between the most endangered seats: CA-31, CA-21, CO-06 and NY-19. (only NJ-02 would be safer).

    4.- Also their numbers and my numbers are signaling the weakness of the R+high seats with Democratic incumbents.

    5.- California and New York will have an important role this cycle. Near all the potentially competitive seats are in D+ states.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The biggest difference between them and I is that their numbers are a little more pessimistic than my numbers.

  •  I wonder why Politico still has relevance (13+ / 0-)

    It's quickly spiraled down a deep dark hole of pseudo-moderated conservative spin and non-stop poor reporting. Here's the latest article:

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "Black pols stymied in Obama Era"

    Just start with the questionable language:

    Consider what has taken place, or not taken place, since Obama broke the presidential color barrier in 2008: There has not been one African-American elected to the Senate — the only blacks in the chamber were appointed to fill vacant seats;
    Now, there's nothing wrong with using "black" as an adjective or noun in place of "African American," and, (this may be a southern thing), I've known few black, or AA people if you will, who prefer the term African American to black. By personally preference or familiarity, most everyone uses black as opposed to African American here, even in very formal circumstances. It's often the mark of a non-native when you hear the term "African American" as opposed to black.

    Having said that, its odd writing to randomly switch between the two terms in one sentence, and for a white man, (to say nothing of someone from Virginia like the author is), to refer to "blacks" in the Senate, is highly inappropriate and questionable. You don't do that. You say "black people", or "black Senators," or African Americans if that's the term you use. This is kind of quibble might seem odd, but there's a huge difference in using black as an adjective or a singular noun, and using it as a plural and it has strong, unsavory racial connotations.

    My main electoral punditry note came on this section:

    and a cadre of promising, next-generation black politicians have either lost races (Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty, Reps. Kendrick Meek of Florida and Artur Davis of Alabama)
    I mean, I love how the only examples he manages to find of failed black politicians include an uninspiring product of nepotism and machine politics (Meek), a callously ambitious conservadem who didn't focus enough on his own constituency and used typical Republican logic in that he took the black vote for granted because he was black and received a resounding defeat in the Democratic primary losing black voters overwhelmingly in the process (Davis), and most troublesome Fenty. Adrian Fenty not only gave Michelle Rhee a big platform to promote her education reforms, but also had a reputation for being confrontational and attention-grabbing. He also, since losing in 2010, endorsed Scott Walker's union-busting efforts in Wisconsin, and even said Democratic state senators there should be held accountable for making the vote difficult to pass, and even making the questionable statement:
    I believe that managers have the ability to set fair wages, and to set fair hours, and to reward people or hold them accountable. I think it's a new day. I think a lot of these collective bargaining agreements are completely outdated.
    The odd inclusion of Fenty marks a pattern. Because D.C. politics has no outlet onto the national field; no Senators or U.S. Reps, and while there's some good media play, no D.C. politician can, structurally speaking, be called a promising national politician. But rather, Martin picked out another of the most conservative, anti-labor, Rhee connected Democrats. Basically its continuing this argument that all the promising "new generation of black leaders" have to be conservative, DLC centrists with pro-business resumes and jump on the buzz field of education reform with questionable backgrounds and questionable proposals.

    And of course then Martin gets to the real heart of his argument: presenting a narrative where Democrats look bad and Republicans are actually the diverse party:

    The situation is particularly embarrassing for Democrats, to whom black voters give the vast majority of their support. Until Sen. Mo Cowan (D-Mass.) was appointed in February, the only African-American in the Senate was a Republican — Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina And it’s not lost on high-profile Democrats that the GOP now enjoys more ethnic diversity among its statewide leaders than the party whose president is both an illustration and a beneficiary of America’s changing face.
    I mean, this kind of shit continues for pages and pages:
    n private, other CBC members can be even harsher about Obama, deriding him as a selfish politician who has done little for his most loyal constituency.
    Unnamed cheap quotes, a short amiable quote with no context from Alcee Hastings, it's a fucking hit piece that goes on and on.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 05:42:53 PM PDT

    •  I "loved" the comment from Tavis Smiley (6+ / 0-)

      I think if it rained, Smiley would blame Obama for lacking leadership on the weather.

    •  I don't even know why I still read it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, DCCyclone, askew, bumiputera

      I know Politico is crap, but I love the convenience of having a bunch of different political issues on a front page.

      I think I'll cut it out of my life. It's distracting, and terrible "news".

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:06:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's the megamall of political news (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Gygaxian, askew

        That's what draws me to it, that there's just so much content there that it's a good way to make sure I didn't miss anything I really care about in daily political news.

        That's really the only reason I go there anymore.  And I typically go there only briefly.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:07:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The comment section on that site (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, GloFish

          is a cesspool of hateful speech and right-wing ranting of the lowest, most incoherent level; i.e. radical people ranting on issues without providing much reasoning and completely misrepresenting facts as part of some deranged world view. Like this gem:

          And you are nothing but a totalitarian communist. By the way I resent the fact that we are denigrating the late leader of North Korea by linking him to Obama. He was bad but not as rockheadedly stupid as Nero Caligula Caesar Obama.
          It's all just one giant flame war there, with way more conservatives these days than liberals.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:28:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I never look at anyone's comment section... (3+ / 0-)

            ...on a political news site.

            What you described is the comment section on any major political site's stories.

            The only good comment sections are for boutique bloggers, like Ta'Nehisi Coates or Marc Ambinder, very smart people who have an audience of very smart regular commenters.

            TPM used to be better before it exploded into something much more popular, but there are still some good commenters there.  Josh Marshall for his part is awesome, and Brian Beutler has become scary good, and I tend to think the comment sections of smarter writers attract smarter comments.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:35:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Luckily, DKE tends to attract (3+ / 0-)

              smart mainstream commenters and discussion. It's one of the charms that lets me stay engaged here without getting burnt out or turned off.

              I just wonder how radical conservatives manage to be such a minority of national opinion polls, but just so ubiquitous on online commenting boards of news media. If that were your main engagement with politics, you might think this was a tea party country!

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:51:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  This, too, is a boutique site (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, JBraden

                Worlds of difference between comments on DKE versus comments on DK main.

                I tend to think one thing that draws nuts to discussions elsewhere on the internet is that they're obsessed with all things politics to the point of having no healthy distance from it to gain perspective.  Ordinary voters who are not crazy also are not politically engaged, so of course they're not on these discussion threads.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:09:00 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  If political boards represented America (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                You'd also think half the country was libertarian.  They may be few in reality, but every last one of them must be online and commenting on boards in my experience.

                •  I think it's somewhat ironic (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, bumiputera

                  A lot of those right-wing commentors excoriate others for allegedly not working hard and expecting handouts, and yet there they are spewing crap and insulting people online all day instead of engaging in productive work.

                  And they don't even put in the work or effort needed to get the actual facts right.

                  37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                  by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:49:04 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  The Hill's comment section is freaky, scary (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, itskevin

            It is so right-wing, I occasionally think its a parody. Its worse than freep or the FOX News comment sections sometimes.

    •  I actually found this to be a fascinating and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inoljt

      informative article.  So we can agree to disagree.  I read every word and didn't regret it one bit.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:08:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe if you were interested in (7+ / 0-)

        reading conservative spin about diversity in their party, alongside a bunch of quotes designed to criticize Obama, while simply being boneheaded or inaccurate.

        This is the first time I've ever read of Kendrick Meek being called a promising next generation black politician. That's the sort of manipulative, spin-filled reporting that makes this article so bad. It's examples, its quotes, and its very weak presentation of counterarguments.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:39:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Martin's piece is not remotely reality-based (8+ / 0-)

          The picture he paints is not a picture almost anyone shares in communities of color, whether black communities or other nonwhite communities.

          As I said in my other comment, this is what happens when you have a white cottage industry writing about race.  They just grasp at straws, not having a clue.  A few interviews with a handful of CBC members will do, maybe with leading questions along the way.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:11:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I agree with everything (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, ArkDem14, bumiputera

      you say here except for, "It's quickly spiraled down a deep dark hole of pseudo-moderated conservative spin and non-stop poor reporting."

      Rather, it always was pseudo-moderated conservative spin and non-stop poor reporting. Though I recall Ben Smith's democratic primary blog being slightly better than most of the content on there.

      IMO its just like the sunday morning shows. The quality of the content is abysmal but people who work in DC whether on the government or lobbying/advocacy side feel that they MUST read politico everyday and they MUST watch the sunday morning shows because they supposedly set the table for what will be happening in the week ahead.

      Of course it could very easily be that its a chicken/egg thing, but I've always been an advocate of democrats boycotting FOX News, treating it as if it doesn't exist, and not continuing to give it the legitimacy it doesn't deserve as a serious news channel. I'm sure that makes me naive.

      CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

      by Jacques Kallis on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:41:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I stopped reading when an early paragraph cited... (4+ / 0-)

      ...the handful of minority Governors and Senators the GOP has as somehow giving the GOP "one up" on Democrats.

      That is the same thing Chuck Todd foolishly cited months ago.  I like Todd a lot and he is usually smart as a whip, but on this one he was as dumb as everyone else in The Village.  And Martin continues the dumbing down of political thought in The Village.

      Democrats have put in power for two terms the first-ever black President, and somehow Democrats are failing minorities while the GOP gets two thumbs up!

      This is what happens when a cottage industry of white reporters who all live near each other and are friends and have zero connection to, or knowledge of, communities of color, decide to write about race.  They are just so stupid.

      What's funny is that I think most white people across America who have a healthy distance from the groupthink of the Beltway political media recognize that minorities are better served by Democrats (the occasional public polls I've seen over the years that actually test this always prove the point) and Obama is the premier political figure of color, that a few token GOPers who got lucky enough to temporarily be in office at the same time doesn't mean much.  This is understood with little or no discussion, it's just so obvious.

      But no, Jonathan Martin insists that somehow Obama is trumped by a few people who are unknowns outside their own states.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:06:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, to start (8+ / 0-)

        he mentions Democrats not having any black U.S. Senator until Cowan was appointed, and highlights Tim Scott while neglecting to mention that Scott was also appointed.

        In the Senate, Democrats have 3 minority Senators:

        1. Mazie Hirono
        2. Robert Menendez
        3. Mo Cowan

        Republicans have 3:

        1. Ted Cruz
        2. Marco Rubio
        3. Tim Scott

        The interesting thing is that all three Republicans are ideological extremists for the most part, at the extreme end of their own party on most mainstream issues, while all three Dems are mainstream progressives, though Hirono is pretty stalwart. They're also three relatively soft-spoken Senators who don't lob many partisan bombs.

        In the House:

        6 minority Republicans. Ros-Lethinen, Diaz-Balart, Flores, Labrador, Cole, and Beutler (Valadao apparently doesn't identify as Hispanic, makes sense seeing as how he comes from a Portguese family.

        72 minorities Democrats. The entire Asian and black caucuses in the House are Democratic.

        I'm sure the divide is even stronger when looking nationally at state legislatures, and mayoralties of major cities/county positions and which party has the largest membership by far.

        There are plenty of prominent minority Democrats in public office, like Hector Balderas, Catherine Masto, John Chiang, Kamela Harris, just to name a few. Holding up Martinez, Sandoval, Jindal, and Haley, as examples of why the GOP is so much more diverse and connected to minority groups is a pretty big pile of crock.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:49:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The media disregards... (10+ / 0-)

          ...anyone from Hawaii because somehow it doesn't count to them.

          And they disregard Menendez because, well, no one really knows why.  I think it's just that he's been around a long time in Congress, and somehow he seems an ordinary part of the ol' boys' network, which he is, but then the media decide he's not a "real" minority somehow.

          Meanwhile, Cowan is fairly dismissed as an electoral figure, but so is Scott......but the media figures Scott is not a placeholder and will run in his own right and win, so that's their rationale.  But that doesn't matter right now, for now they're both just appointees.

          All this involves, as I said, the media twisting themselves into pretzels in their groupthink that fails to see the forest from the trees.

          And of course, the biggest fail, worth mentioning again, is that Democrats have a two-term black President in power right now!

          But that, too, must be dismissed.  Why, no one knows.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:14:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'll give credit for one thing in that article (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, ArkDem14, bumiputera

            JMart did make mention of Anthony Brown, Lt. Gov. of Maryland who could be the state's first African American governor.  Considering how the media endlessly fawned over Michael Steele when he held the same position (including his failed attempt to move up to US Senate), it's good that Brown got some equal time.  (BTW, speaking of Steele and his Senate campaign, this article reminds me of the 2005-06 cycle when the GOP hyped him and several other unsuccessful African American candidates as some sort of major political shift/breakthrough, and the media played right along with that tripe.)

            Much of what's in there, though, is absurd, irrelevant, or lacks context.  Adrian Fenty's defeat in DC proves what?  He was replaced by another African American Democrat, Vince Gray (who may lose next year, but not due to race.)  Jesse Jackson Jr. was forced from office due to scandal--how do his screwups set back African American political progress overall?  Oh, and the fact that he was succeeded by an excellent AA candidate, Robin Kelly, was unmentioned.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:47:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wow, that's a noob move by him. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, bumiputera

              Fenty was beaten by a black Democrat in the primary due to school issues, JJJ stepped down due to illness and legal woes, and Artur Davis lost the Gubernatorial primary to a white Democrat because Davis snubbed them and assumed they were in the bag because he was black.  Davis made a Republican mistake in assuming that race=votes and even the Democrats in his heavily black district voted for primary opponent Ron Sparks.  I'm not too familiar with how else Davis pissed off the AA community, but from what little I read back then indicated that: A. He was aloof and dodged campaign events with black leaders and personalities, assuming they were in the bag, and focused on appealing to white voters while not realizing that a huge bloc in the Dem primary electorate was giving him the cold shoulder. B. GradyDem said that Davis dodged the usual Democratic machine and tried to do his own thing.

              "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:07:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Basically, what Cylcone calls (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, DCCyclone

              the white cottage industry of news reporting, (and even minority reporters on the beltway do this), is more interested in perpetually promoting the self-narrative of Republicans to be diverse even when that is not remotely the case.

              And it doesn't matter how many abrasive far-right activists, who are also minorities, the Republican base fawns over and pushes up to high ranking positions (there still aren't many) Republicans aren't going to win these minority groups until they 1. Drop the racist assumption that minorities vote their minority (black candidates vote for black candidates) and not politics, and more importantly, 2. Become a more moderate party with centrist views on the governments ability to be a positive force, to provide a social safety net, and to liberalize their social policy.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 10:32:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  But that just destroys JMart's own thesis (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NMLib

              He talks about 3-4 GOP statewide electeds as if they are 100, and dismisses the same number of Dems as if they are zero.

              Some amazingly fuzzy math there.

              What these idiot political journos don't get is that it's not about fine-tuned bean counting, that's not what people of color or anyone else cares about.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 08:40:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I mean, check every other measure (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, itskevin, askew, Skaje, JBraden

        of diversity:

        Democrats have 16 women in their Senate Caucus. Republicans have 4. There are 58 women in the House Democratic Caucus to 19 in the Republican. Republicans have only one Jewish member. They have no atheist members, and Democrats have the bodies only Buddhist, Muslim, and Hindu members. Every Jewish and non-Christian Senator is also a Democrat, and ever openly gay U.S. Rep or U.S. Senator is currently a Democrat. In fact, for homosexual members I can find only two current legislators in the U.S. who are openly gay and Republican, and no statewide officers.

        There's no way around. The House Republican caucus for instance, is a 232 member caucus where 209 of the members are white men. The Senate caucus: 37 of 55 Democratic senators are white men. 38 of 45 Republicans are.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 09:10:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  *Groan* (3+ / 0-)

      To start with, yeah I never, ever say "blacks", but rather "black people".  Same goes for "Jews" versus "Jewish people".  The former in both cases just has an uncomfortable connotation and a history of bigoted uses behind it.  But that's hardly the worst of this article.

      You get their list of African-American politicians politico supposedly considered "promising": Fenty, Meek, and Davis, all of whom any of us could identify as weak politicians, and in any case they were all succeeded in their positions by fellow African-Americans.  Fenty got beat for the same reason Davis got beat: they neglected their base in their hopes to be David Brooks' favorite Democrat, and ended up losing African-American voters.  Davis even became a Republican.  And as you note, Meek was always an underwhelming candidate, and it's no surprise he got crushed running in a GOP wave year against both Rubio and Crist.

      I also find it incredibly goofy that they hold up Tim Scott, appointed Senator, as some incredible show of GOP diversity, but ignore Mo Cowan because he was appointed and therefore doesn't count for some reason.

      I used to get mad at all this GOP bragging about diversity but now I don't even care anymore, they've elected a few but are still getting demolished overall in the state legislatures, in Congress, in mayorships and city councils across the country.  Ignore their bragging, minorities are not fooled and are voting for Democrats at higher and higher rates.

      •  I'll admit I say Jews (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        depending on the context. Now that I think about it But that might be something inculcated in by several of my professors, who were Jewish, and just tended to say "Jews this and Jews that" and the phrasing came to be something I use sometimes in certain contexts. I've never been around anybody who was sensitive, or been around its negative, racialized usage like I have with "blacks", so I never considered saying "Jews" as in like "Jews in Europe found themselves targeted by Nazi aggression," to be offensive.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:55:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, JBraden

          It's not inherently offensive to say "Jews".  But I just know that anti-Semites always, always say "Jews" and never "Jewish people".  Because of that, I just prefer to use the latter.  But of course Jewish people can call themselves whichever they prefer.  I just personally wouldn't feel comfortable saying something like "11 Senators are Jews", versus "11 Senators are Jewish".  It all depends on context I suppose.

        •  Speaking as . . . (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, jncca

          . . . a Jew, I think I can clarify a few things about the terminology: it is perfectly okay to use the word "Jew" as a noun. Usage as such has not been pejorative, as indicated by your profs' casual use thereof. The problem only arises if the word is used as an adjective-- e.g. "that Jew lawyer," or "a Jew nose"-- or as a verb-- e.g. "to Jew someone down," meaning to haggle for a lower price on something. It seems that the use of the word in those pejorative contexts has made people overly cautious about ever using it, even though it's entirely kosher, so to speak, as long as it's a noun!

          30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

          by The Caped Composer on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 06:56:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  We made such similar comments, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        you here and me above, that it's eerie.

        Well, Davis lost to a white Democrat in the primary. Which makes all the worse that he got crushed among black voters in that primary, given that southern black voters do, yes, tend to be more racialized in voting patterns than in other parts of the candidate (not rigidly so, but often yes).

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:57:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Seeing Davis get crushed (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, kleinburger, JBraden

          and I mean absolutely destroyed (62%-38%) by Ron Sparks was one of the more satisfying moments in what was otherwise a very sad year.  It was a fitting end to the career of someone who took loyal Democrats for granted in his never-ending pursuit of Republican votes, despite representing a solidly blue district.

  •  Wow. Pence considering vetoing Marion Co powergrab (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bumiputera

    http://blogs.wishtv.com/...

    I wonder if he actually does veto it. Seems funny how Speaker Bosma is running away from this, despite him reinserting it back in the bill. For those of you just tuning in, it eliminates 4 at large Marion County City County Council seats, all Democrats. Changes Council from 15-14 Dem to 14-11 GOP. And the 2015 map was drawn as 10 Dem seats, 10 GOP seats, and 5 competitive seats (between 50-52% GOP- based on 2010 elections).

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:47:52 PM PDT

  •  FBI looking at McDonnell's donor relationship (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    FBI agents are conducting interviews about the relationship between Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell, his wife, Maureen, and a major campaign donor who paid for the food at the wedding of the governor’s daughter, according to four people familiar with the questioning.

    The agents have been asking associates of the McDonnells about gifts provided to the family by Star Scientific chief executive Jonnie R. Williams Sr. and actions the Republican governor and his wife have taken that may have boosted the company, the people said.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:58:48 PM PDT

    •  That might be it for any 2016 presidential bid (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, LordMike, KingofSpades

      I dont know how likely it was to begin. McDonnell isnt very well known, even among the GOP and he made the awful mistake of supporting a tax increase.

      But as a very popular swing state governor, he might have been a strong candidate. With this though, I think it will be hard to get traction even if he runs.

      •  Waaaaaaay premature (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Darth Jeff

        Plenty of FBI and other law enforcement investigations result in nothing, and then no political damage, either.

        There's actually a backhanded way that Star Scientific's McDonnell connection potentially helps Cuccinelli, and that comes from the fact that McDonnell is popular.  Thus, anything connecting the two, while potentially hurting McDonnell, also potentially helps Cuccinelli.

        McAuliffe would be better off if, by chance, Star Scientific hit only Cooch, and Bob had no connection.  That would help isolate Cooch from his own party's most popular state figure, which is what TMac and Democrats want.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:59:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, I wasnt suggesting (0+ / 0-)

          he would be indicted.

          But I've seen this story get some coverage previously, and it seems like it is something he will have to explain, even if the investigation clears him. Is it something he wants to have to explain in an already uphill presidential bid? I could see him saying no.

        •  Indeed (0+ / 0-)

          That said, as I am taking more seriously the potential of the next Senate open race that in VA which would always be a tough proposition (if Warner bails), anything that tarnishes the good memory glow he got from that transportation deal is good for me.
          I am aware of the self-fulfilling power of media narratives and I don't want McDonnell to enter a potential Senate open race with the same kind of coverage "good-governor" Warner did have in 2008.

    •  I hope they find something with Cuccinelli too (0+ / 0-)

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 07:57:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of course (0+ / 0-)

        The problem is that there is probably tons of stuff of the same kind (if less brazenly illegal coz he is nothing but a smart cookie) with McAuliffe's looooooong history of money-raising and mixing business with politics.
        Cuch is so polarizing that I still feel good about our chances but to me running on ethics with McAuliffe as candidate was like the GOP picking Romney to run against Obamacare. Probably better off sticking to social issues. Would not be confident the pot would not end up splashed back ten times by the kettle.

  •  If you want a laugh (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    read the comments section on WHAS-11 for the Mitch McConnell pic of him sitting with a beer.

    https://www.facebook.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 08:07:10 PM PDT

  •  SC-1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, ChadmanFL

    RRH decided to do a PPP and tease about their poll.  

    RedRacingHorses RRH #SC01 Poll Update: VERY early unweighted results from the first half-day looking surprisingly good for @MarkSanford
    RedRacingHorses Weighting will change the results dramatically. But back of the envelope calculations and the entire first day results suggest that...
    RedRacingHorses RRH's #SC01 poll Thursday will probably show a close race between @MarkSanford and @ColbertBuschSC

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