Following up on their New Hampshire polling which showed GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte's job approval plummeting in the wake of her vote against expanding background checks for gun buyers, PPP checked in on five other senators in four states who also voted against the legislation, known as the Manchin-Toomey amendment. The results were pretty for no one:
State |
Senator |
Approvals |
Prior
Approvals |
Change |
More/Less
Likely to Vote |
Support for
BG Checks |
AK |
Mark Begich (D) |
41-37 |
49-39 (Feb.) |
-6 |
22-39 |
60-35 |
AK |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
46-41 |
54-33 (Feb.) |
-16 |
26-39 |
60-35 |
AZ |
Jeff Flake (R) |
32-51 |
45-43 (Nov.)٭ |
-21 |
19-52 |
70-26 |
NV |
Dean Heller (R) |
44-41 |
47-42 (Nov.) |
-2 |
25-46 |
70-24 |
OH |
Rob Portman (R) |
26-34 |
35-25 (Oct.) |
-18 |
19-36 |
72-21 |
٭ PPP tested Flake's favorability rating in November, not his job approval rating.
Of course, you could argue that post hoc doesn't necessarily mean ergo propter hoc, but the evidence that "no" votes on Manchin-Toomey have hurt opponents is starting to look awfully consistent. What's more, there's also some indication that "yes" votes may have actually helped supporters. While I wish PPP had also tested John McCain, Sherrod Brown and Harry Reid (all of whom favored the bill, though Reid voted against it for procedural reasons), they did ask Arizona voters whether they trusted McCain or Flake more on guns; McCain wins on that score by a wide 45-24 margin. And Flake, for his part, has already made himself the most unpopular sitting senator PPP has data on.
But there's something else, too. Ayotte's senior colleague, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, voted for Manchin-Toomey, but she's seen her approvals move up over the same timeframe, from 46-39 in October (PDF) to 53-39 now. And in Quinnipiac's polling, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who lent his name to the legislation, also saw a spike in his numbers. There's also the fact that the NRA just started airing radio ads to defend Ayotte, something I doubt they'd do if they felt their once-typical supreme confidence.
Of course, except for Begich, who could lose for any number of reasons in red Alaska, none of these senators are up for re-election any time soon. But that doesn't mean this vote wasn't a mistake, and it doesn't mean there won't be consequences.