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After the 2012 election, "demographics are destiny" became a popular phrase.  As the country diversifies, so the story goes, pretty much everywhere will trend Democratic.

There's no denying that many diversifying areas have trended Democratic.  But there are interesting exceptions.  Consider Palm Beach County, Florida.  It diversified, but trended Republican.  Was it because of older people?  Jewish people?  Rich people?  None of the above?  Let's see what we can find out.

Introduction:

 photo PalmBeach_zps59db94e7.png

(I like this map, from here.)

Palm Beach County doesn't fit many of the stereotypes of a Republican-trending area.  It isn't Appalachian or (culturally) Southern.  And it's diversifying.  The county's non-Hispanic white population shrank by a full 10% from 2000 to 2010, according to the Census.

In fact, over that period, few Florida counties diversified by as much as Palm Beach County:

 photo FLdemochangefw_zps226f4067.png

But there's an evident Republican trend.

Barack Obama barely improved in Palm Beach County over John Kerry, in 2008.  In 2008, Obama got 61.51% of the (two-party) vote.  In 2004, John Kerry got 60.71% of the vote.

Perhaps Palm Beach County is simply "inelastic".  And it's true that Democrats generally get around 60% in Palm Beach County (then again, Democrats generally get around 50% in Florida, at least in these elections).

But in 2012, Obama got 58.56% of the two-party vote--so he did worse than Kerry, and had a greater decrease than he had nationally, either from 2004-2012 (obviously) or from 2008-2012:

 photo FLPres2fw_zpsab7e20fe.png

Going back to 2000, Gore (62.3%) and Nader (1.3%) combined to 63.6% of the (overall) vote.

In PVI terms, Palm Beach County has lost about half of the Democratic advantage it had in 2000 and 2004, when it was about D+12.  In 2008, it was D+8, and in 2012, it was less than D+7.

And no, this isn't just about Barack Obama. Compare Bill Nelson's 2006 and 2012 performances by county, or compare Alex Sink's Gubernatorial performance in 2010 with Jim Davis' Gubernatorial performance in 2006.  Nelson declined nearly everywhere from 2006 to 2012, but his decline in Palm Beach County was greater than his statewide decline.  Davis had a solid loss, and Sink nearly won, but Sink actually did a bit worse in Palm Beach County than Davis.

In every case, Palm Beach County trended Republican relative to the state or national swing, whether the Democrat improved overall (2004 vs. 2012 Presidential, 2006 vs. 2010 Gubernatorial) or declined overall (2006 vs. 2012 Senatorial).  In most cases, Palm Beach County trended Republican in absolute terms, too.  (I think the only exception there is Obama's tiny improvement over John Kerry in 2008.)

That's a Republican trend.

The basic partisan geography:

Unfortunately, official Palm Beach County results for the 2004 election don't seem to allocate by precinct, but we can make precinct maps for the 2008 election (using Dave's Redistricting App and Census/TIGER shapefiles) and for the 2012 election (using election results and shapefiles from the Palm Beach County supervisor of elections).

This map shows Obama's performance by precinct in 2008 and Obama's performance by precinct in 2012.

 photo PalmBeachPresidential2008and2012fw_zps9ad6cd8e.png

(In both cases, I'm not including a handful of votes attributed to precincts that don't have shapefiles, and the precinct totals for 2008 don't quite sum to the certified total  I don't think  I can only work with what I have.)

There's a lot of information here.  One of my favorite factoids: That single red precinct surrounded by blue is the tiny town of Atlantis, which seems to mostly be a golf course.

But where are the Democratic areas?

First, and unsurprisingly, there are the majority-minority areas.  Let's compare Obama's 2012 performance to the 2010 Census numbers (by 2008 precinct):

 photo PalmBeach2012NHWPresfw_zps40130127.png

There was a high overall correlation between non-Hispanic white population and Obama's performance in 2008 (when we can compare them by precinct using Dave's Redistricting App).

 photo ObamaNHWplotfw_zpsa864d412.png

What about that cluster of extremely white precincts where Obama did very well in 2008?

Interestingly, they overlap pretty closely with the oldest Census tracts.  Or, at least, with the largest cluster of Census tracts where a large of the population was 60 or older.  And Obama still did well there in 2012:

 photo PalmBeach2012AgePresfw_zps3d24a7c1.png

This area is King's Point/West Delray Beach, and it's heavily Jewish (see below).  

The 2008-2012 Trend, and possible explanations:

Palm Beach County helpfully provides a precinct conversion chart.  Using this chart, I was able to divide Palm Beach County into comparable "clusters" of 2008/2012 precincts, and directly compare Obama's two-party share in the two elections.

The following map shows that comparison:

 photo palmbeachtodayfw_zps7bd4eb17.png

Obama did better than in 2008 on the shore of Lake Okeechobee and in the Westgate/Palm Springs/Lake Worth Corridor area.

Obama did worse than 2008, often considerably worse, nearly everywhere else.

For example, in the northern part of the county contained in FL-18, currently represented by Democrat Patrick Murphy, Obama received close to his national numbers in 2008, winning the area with about 52.5% of the vote, judging by Dave's Redistricting App.  But in 2012, Obama lost the area, getting 47.6% to Romney's 51.75%, according to the DKE spreadsheet.

Hopefully, this trend map refutes the idea that Palm Beach County is simply "inelastic".

As you can see, there's a stark regional divide.  What explains the Democratic-trending areas?

Let's compare the "trend" maps to various other maps.  Here's the most convincing comparison, to my eyes:

 photo changeandHispanicfw_zps6b0e9de9.png

The most Democratic-trending areas are essentially identical with the Hispanic areas, especially the Westgate/Palm Springs/Lake Worth Corridor area.  This area did diversify quite a bit--it's basically the same as House District 87, where the non-Hispanic white population plummeted from 50.9% in 2000 to 29.5% in 2010.  But I don't know how much change happened here from 2008 to 2012.  (And House District 86, to its immediate west, diversified quite a bit as well, but doesn't show the same trend.)

The biggest exception seems to be some of Riviera Beach, where Obama didn't seem to improve all that much relative to the Hispanic areas, and which is majority-African-American.

Without getting into a discussion about the (very real) dangers of ecological analysis, I think it's pretty clear what's going on.

Obama did considerably better among Hispanics, a little better or about the same among African-Americans, and quite a bit worse with non-Hispanic whites.

Again, I can't directly compare 2004 precincts, but there's every reason to think the same was true from 2004-2008, especially at the PVI level.

Another explanation I've heard suggested:  Is this just because old people trended Republican?   Maybe, but compare the trend map with the age map.

 photo PalmBeachAgeChangefw_zps7e7a4b7d.png

It is true that most of the oldest areas trended Republican, but that might just be because they're mostly some of the whitest areas.  And the northern part of Palm Beach County, the part in FL-18, trended Republican, but isn't particularly old, apparently, or at least not all of it.  Also, the heavily-Democratic "oldest" area seems to have trended Republican a bit less than some of the surrounding areas.

Another suggestion was: Is this just because rich people trended Republican?  I think that's a little more likely.  Compare the trend map to this map showing median household income by Census Tract.

 photo changeandincomefw_zps90a7276b.png

All of the majority-minority areas seem to be low-income (sigh), but gradations among higher-income Census tracts seem vaguely associated with gradations in the trend map.  The FL-18 part of the county basically all trended Republican, and it's basically all pretty high-income.  The higher-income parts of South Palm Beach County seem to have trended Republican a bit more than the lower-income parts.

Finally, alas, people have understandably wondered: Is this just because Jewish people trended Republican?

Unfortunately (if understandably), neither the Census nor the American Community Survey keeps track of religion.  However, the Jewish Databank has a study from 2005, with Jewish households by zip code.  

 photo changeandJewishfw_zps1739208e.png

Again, while Jewish areas trended Republican, if anything, it looks to me like some of the most Jewish areas trended less Republican than some of the surrounding areas.  And, once again, an explanation based on Jewish people trending Republican doesn't explain why the FL-18 part of Palm Beach County trended Republican.  But it's entirely possible that, for example, the Jewish areas immediately west of Boca Raton (on the border with Broward County) trended Republican for one reason, and the part of Palm Beach County in FL-18 trended Republican for another reason.

Conclusion:

I can't explain these results just from comparing maps, obviously.  And, as always, I look forward to feedback from people with local or specific knowledge.  

But here's what Palm Beach County illustrates: increasing diversity isn't a guarantee of improving Democratic performance.

The assumption behind "demographics is destiny" is that partisan preference will stay constant within an ethnic group.  But, in Palm Beach County, there seems to have been a lot of change within ethnic groups.  Hispanic areas got more Democratic, and white areas got more Republican, from 2008 to 2012.

The 2012 election was more racially polarized, then, and not merely because Democrats improved with nonwhites.  There's every indication that Democratic performance actually declined among non-Hispanic whites.

And the result, in Palm Beach County, was a decline in overall Democratic performance.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (21+ / 0-)

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:00:15 AM PDT

  •  Demographics will never carry the day (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, wwmiv, Glenn Magus Harvey

    Our politics has to respond to people's aspirations, balancing our private wants and our collective wants. It's not about formulas, but relationships.

    Thank you for this in-depth analysis.

    Did you ver notice how har it is totype accurately on an iPad?

    by RudiB on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:14:48 AM PDT

    •  Thanks. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv

      I think demographics are important, obviously, but I don't think they explain everything, and especially not simple/superficial demographics.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:17:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  cool (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Swamp Cat

    The money explanation seems believable. Most of the uber-rich towns in CA also swung right not just from 2008 to 2012, but from 2004 to 2012.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:52:33 AM PDT

  •  It is NOT trending GOP (0+ / 0-)

    There are tremendous efforts at voter supression here. I have talked to many minority potential voters who could not vote because they had moved a block or two, didn't have a full day and 5 documents to get a new licence!

    Perhaps you didn't hear that on the only weekend early voting, the waits were 6 hours and more! Hourly workers can't take a day off to vote.

    •  If so, that might have an effect on the total. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, skibum59

      I don't know what the RV numbers are for the current precincts, or I'd have looked at turnout.  Perhaps I can look by legislative district.  But the parts of Palm Beach County that seem to be trending Republican generally have minimal nonwhite population.  That's interesting though.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 09:13:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is directly contradicted by the data (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59, jncca

      The areas that trended rightward have minimal minority population, as Xeno noted both in his reply to you and in the diary (it was, in fact, a central finding in the diary).

      Although, the voter suppression that you suppose probably does have some impact on the county-wide partisanship, but doesn't at all change the fact that much of the county shifted very much to the right.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed May 01, 2013 at 10:05:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm on the ground here... (0+ / 0-)

        and talked extensively to those who try to get folks to the polls, and they were so, so frustrated.

        What I'm saying is that if everyone who should have been eligible to vote and wanted to vote had voted, the data would be far different.

        •  That's certainly possible, although (0+ / 0-)

          one thing we don't know is how much Palm Beach County varied from the rest of Florida.  Anyway, I always appreciate local perspectives.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:01:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nice diary. (0+ / 0-)

    Very interesting. I don't know about the conclusion though.

    But here's what Palm Beach County illustrates: increasing diversity isn't a guarantee of improving Democratic performance.
    Not logically speaking, because Democrats can in principle do worse among whites, thereby cancelling out their advantage among minorities, which is what seems to have happened here. But Palm Beach County hardly illustrates that it is a rule that this will happen at more than a local scale - indeed, you chose it for analysis because it's an exception to the general rule that Democrats have improved their performance in more diverse areas.

    I would be interested to see what happened in the whiter areas of places like Hillsborough and Polk counties. Those counties have similar racial demographics to Palm Beach, but trended Dem. Why the difference? (Median income in the central Florida counties is only slightly lower than in Palm Beach.)

    I am intrigued, too, by any areas outside of the Greater South (including Appalachian regions in PA and OH) where whites are trending Republican. There don't seem to be many of them - Arizona seems like the biggest exception. Especially strange because AZ, like Palm Beach, is quite urban.

    •  I think AZ was anti-Obama rather than a red (0+ / 0-)

      trend.  They're upset he sued their state to block SB 1070.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Wed May 01, 2013 at 02:57:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  AZ (0+ / 0-)

        AZ is also a little weird for analyzing its recent trend because it's the one semicompetitive state that Obama never contested at all, even in 2008 when he went into IN, MO, GA, MT, and even ND. I think it's likely that some of the effects of a lack of a 2008 campaign hurt him in 2012.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed May 01, 2013 at 04:00:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The thing is. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Jarman, Inoljt, jncca

      Quite a lot of the places that are diversifying the most are in the Greater South.  It's hardly an independent question.

      I think there are 88 counties in the whole country where the non-Hispanic white population share declined by more than in Palm Beach County, and on a quick run-through, 54 are in the Greater South (including Maryland).

      Some you wouldn't expect.  Texas County, Oklahoma, which doesn't seem to be trending Democratic.  Others are, of course, or have.  By the way, here's the top 10.  I think.  I can never tell if I'm comparing the right Census things:

      Rockdale County, Georgia    -31.83%
      Henry County, Georgia    -27.59%
      Douglas County, Georgia    -26.87%
      Manassas Park city, Virginia    -24.67%
      Gwinnett County, Georgia    -23.00%
      Newton County, Georgia    -22.18%
      Clayton County, Georgia    -20.79%
      Forest County, Pennsylvania    -19.58%
      Osceola County, Florida    -19.30%
      Charles County, Maryland    -18.92%
      Jeez, Osceola.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:39:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But I'm pretty sure all of these counties (0+ / 0-)

        are trending Dem. Just goes to show how hard it is to find diversifying areas that aren't. At any rate, I'm interested in non-southern areas because there's obviously a trend toward republicans among Appalachian whites (one of the least diverse regions in the country!), and you can construe that pretty broadly to include parts of PA and OH and maybe southern IL and IN, even. But there seem to be very few places elsewhere that whites are trending republican. Palm Beach may be one; Arizona (or just Maricopa county?) may be another.

        It's an interesting question to me because the republicans are obviously going to have to do one of two things to remain competitive in presidential elections: a) lose by smaller margins among minorities, or b) win by larger margins among whites outside of the south. So far they don't seem to be doing either.

        •  Broward diversified only a bit less than those. (0+ / 0-)

          And doesn't seem to be trending Democratic--so I'd say it's fairly likely white voters there are getting more Republican.  

          Otherwise, that's a large topic.  But "so far"?  We only have one Presidential election every four years.  There's a long time between data points.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 10:05:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I wouldn't call Charles County "diversifying" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt

        It's more like "flipping." Middle class blacks are moving in from Prince George's County, closer to D.C., while the former rural whites are moving out.

        BTW, of America's 3000+ counties only two voted for Bob Dole in 1996 and then Al Gore in 2000: Charles and Orange County (Orlando), FL.

      •  Forest County, Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

        I have some familiarity with Forest County; my Dad and uncles own a cabin there that my uncles use for hunting. Unlike the other places on your list, I think that's a simple case of population loss rather than a change in the demographics of the area.

  •  Good piece, thanks (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, Alibguy, Inoljt, KingofSpades

    Your analysis gave me a lot to think about. I agree that money played a part.  In 2008, I think people in northern PBC voted against the whole Bush mess (as well as getting caught up in the hope & change excitement) -- then voted their money in 2012.

    In addition, Allen West encouraged toxic rhetoric which was extremely divisive in just about every way. For example, a voter could say "I'm not voting for Obama -- but it's not because he's black, look, I'm voting for Allen West."

    On a personal note, I grew up in that area around Lake O. Nice to see a little more blue in 2012. Never would have thought it.

    OT: In south St. Lucie County, I canvassed a number of people who voted for Obama in 2008 and were Romney voters in 2012. Their stated reason -- if they told me anything -- was the economy. These voters were not wealthy, but they liked the rich white guy.

    •  That's very interesting. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Swamp Cat

      I might look at the rest of FL-18 next, or maybe Volusia County.  They're probabaly pretty similar dynamics.

      I didn't know anything about the areas around Lake O before now.  Here's one of my favorite Wikipedia factoids, about South Bay:

      While the current estimates place South Bay's population in the incorporated city limits at more than 4,000 people, surrounding areas increase the population figures to 54,000 people in a 25-mile (40 km) radius and more than 1.4 million in a 50-mile (80 km) radius.
      That's...quite a difference between a 25-mile radius and a 50-mile radius, and it accentuates how removed these towns are from most of Palm Beach County (the Wiki for Belle Glade says "Despite being located in the South Florida region of the state, Belle Glade is culturally more associated with the Florida Heartland").  

      What were the politics like there when you were growing up?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 07:54:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For what it's worth (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, Inoljt, jncca, Swamp Cat

        I'd vote for Volusia next. Its 2012 behavior might be the biggest puzzle for me of any of the 3000+ counties. I think it's the nation's largest Kerry -> Romney county, but no demographic indicators give an inkling why. It isn't particularly rich. Obviously there's no coal industry. It isn't heavy on 'American' ancestry. It isn't even that old, at least compared with a lot of other parts of Florida.

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

        by David Jarman on Wed May 01, 2013 at 09:29:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Local politics were (0+ / 0-)

        non-partisan races. Residents, however,  were pretty much conservative Democrats, trending Republican. The area had been settled by Southerners mostly.  The Cubans who came later were very conservative as well.

  •  As soon as I saw, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Swamp Cat, Inoljt

    on election night, that Palm Beach County had trended Republican, I immediately assumed that it was primarily because of rich people. This assumption was confirmed upon seeing the maps here.

    Of the four categories (age, race, income, and religion), income seems to be the biggest predictor of how the area swung in 2012. And also, as people above noted, most rich areas in the country swung heavily toward Romney.

    I think this is because the 2012 election was about economic issues, while in the 2008 election, a lot of fiscally conservative, socially moderate rich voters were scared away from McCain by Sarah Palin, and so voted for Obama. These voters then voted for Romney last year. That's why Atherton and Hillsborough in San Mateo County, CA voted for Romney.

    If my hypothesis is correct, then these areas will swing back to the Democrats if the Republican candidate emphasizes social issues (for example, if Santorum is the nominee). Also, I don't think the comparisons with Nelson's and Davis' 2006 performances prove anything, because Democrats did poorly with rich voters in both 2010 and 2012, and many rich voters voted for Democrats in 2006 because they opposed the Iraq War.

    So therefore, I think Obama's dip in performance in Palm Beach County in 2012 was a one-time event, and not indicative of a trend. If the 2012 campaign had emphasized social issues as much as the 2008 campaign did, then Obama would have done better. Also note how Democrats did quite well in the House races here.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Wed May 01, 2013 at 01:01:07 PM PDT

    •  I think 2006/2008 was the exception (0+ / 0-)

      We likely won't have another Palin or another Iraq War equivalent anytime soon.  People will be voting their pocketbooks until the economy is strong again.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Wed May 01, 2013 at 02:58:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Perhaps retirees are moving there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Swamp Cat

    and bringing their voting patterns with them. What's the population growth overall like in those areas that trended Republican? And yes, the county definitely is trending Republican downballot too, going roughly 4% more Republican than the state at large between 2006 and 2010 so it isn't just an Obama thing and I doubt it's because of Jews. It seems like the retirees there are driving the Republican growth, which again leads me to believe they must have grown as a percentage of the population, but I haven't looked at that data.

    Ironically enough though, Obama underperforms the average in the county by a good amount to the extent that FL-22 is really a safe district despite being just D+3 last year. Frankel should cruise for the next few cycles at least, but if the trend continues at its current pace the seat will eventually become swingy (if we don't have court-mandated re-redistricting).

  •  Middle class and middle aged have left (0+ / 0-)

    I have almost no friends left,  the jobs have gone, the houses have been foreclosed.

    Those who work multiple jobs do not keep up with politics.

    the wealthy have time to vote.

  •  First, I'd like to say that this is AMAZING! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Thank you!

    Second, are you sure blacks didn't shift Republican?

    I was looking at that cluster of extremely Obama precincts, which I assume are African-American:

     photo PalmBeach2012_zps06464833.png

    This is how they shifted from 2008 to 2012:

     photo PalmBeachChange_zpse898a7d7.png

    The northern area (Riviera Beach, I think) seems to have moved tepidly towards Obama, but the southern part definitely seems to have had a rightward shift.

    Thoughts?

    http://mypolitikal.com/

    by Inoljt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 10:09:52 PM PDT

    •  Thanks. (0+ / 0-)

      I was wondering about that too.  The African-American areas run in an (oddly narrow) line down from Riviera Beach, and there are also significant populations on the shore of Lake O.  Most of that trended Democratic, I think,  so we're really only talking about that one area, which was still heavily Democratic.  But I don't know.  

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed May 01, 2013 at 10:16:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe the areas are along the train tracks? (0+ / 0-)

        Could be wrong but I think I remember reading that.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Wed May 01, 2013 at 10:58:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  For one thing. (0+ / 0-)

      That area has a smaller African-American population:

       photo PalmBeachNHWBlackPopulationfw_zpse7d67f34.png

      Second, we're really talking about gradations within "voted over 90% for Barack Obama", along with, I think, some random vagaries of new precinct lines (since I had to combine the 2012 precincts into clusters that could be directly compared to the 2008 precincts).

       photo PalmBeachStrongestDemfw_zpsa61e0ec0.png

      I don't think there's that much significant here.  But it is interesting.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Thu May 02, 2013 at 10:34:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the reply and the map. (0+ / 0-)

        It's very hard to tell. I'm looking at that bottom section which is heavily African-American, and it too seems to have shifted Republican (if you look at the map of the shifts). On the other hand, the black area running along the train tracks seems to have shifted Democratic. And certainly the large black precincts in the West have shifted Democratic.

        I think, all in all, that there is a case to be made that blacks in Palm Beach County shifted Republican. Although, to be fair, you could also make a strong case that they shifted Democratic.

        http://mypolitikal.com/

        by Inoljt on Sat May 04, 2013 at 03:49:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  same trend in Long Island and the Jersey Shore (0+ / 0-)

    The same trend, for probably the same reason, assuming the people in Palm Beach who trended Republican are retirees from greater New York.  I think it's 9/11 that turned these people Republican.  After 9/11 they wanted revenge, didn't want to hear about racial sensitivity, sought out Republican news sources, and vote for Republican warmongers.  The Republican news sources are why that group continues to trend Republican.

  •  Palm Beach County (0+ / 0-)

    Was the site of Romney's infamous 47% speech.

  •  Great post (0+ / 0-)

    and interesting discussion thread. Thank you.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Wed May 08, 2013 at 07:05:48 PM PDT

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