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While PPP may show Congressman Ed Markey (D. MA) leading businessman Gabriel Gomez (R. MA) by four points in the 2013 Massachusetts U.S. Senate Special Election, Suffolk University paints a different picture:

A polling organization that accurately forecast the outcome of the last two Massachusetts Senate races and the 2010 governor’s contest says its first survey of next month’s special Senate election shows U.S. Rep. Edward Markey with a 17-point lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez.

The new Suffolk University/7NEWS poll results show a significant 32 percent of likely voters are undecided about Gomez, a Cohasset Republican running for statewide office for the first time, a reality that will make his ability to define himself, or be defined by his opponents, critical in the coming weeks.

Likely voters indicated the economy is the top issue in the campaign, a stance Gomez agrees with, but 71 percent of those surveyed said an agreement between the candidates to limit outside campaign spending is an important campaign issue. Markey has repeatedly challenged Gomez to take the so-called People’s Pledge, but Gomez has refused and pointed at special interest money accepted by Markey over the years.

Among 500 likely voters surveyed, Markey was the preference of 52 percent, Gomez 38 percent and 11 percent were undecided. A third candidate, Richard Heos, was chosen by 1 percent. The poll was conducted May 4 - May 7 and carries a margin of error of 4.4 percent. Among the respondents, 266 were unenrolled, 178 were Democrats and 54 were Republicans, mirroring the state’s enrollment breakdown. - Te Republican, 5/8/13

Now I don't know how consistent Suffolk's polling has been but these numbers are sure to make the Markey campaign smile.  But they aren't taking this race for granted and neither should we.  The election is Tuesday, June 25th so anything could happen in between now and then.  Especially with the outside money Gomez will be bringing into this race to smear Markey:

Markey called on Gomez to take a pledge, similar to one signed by Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Scott Brown in the 2012 Senate race, preventing outside organizations from advertising. Gomez has said he will not take any pledges. “He is saying very clearly that he is welcoming in the Koch brothers and Karl Rove into the state of Massachusetts,” Markey said, referring to the Republican activists and strategist. - The Republican, 4/30/13
Not to mention a lot of money is riding on Gomez in this race:

A ThinkProgress review of Gomez’s campaign filings with the Federal Election Commission reveals that in addition to more than $600,000 in candidate loans to his committee, he has reported about $646,000 in identified contributions through April. Of that, about half (roughly $330,000) came from investors, bankers, and the like. More than $35,000 of that came from his former colleagues at Advent International and another $12,900 came from investors with various affiliates of Mitt Romney’s old firm, Bain Capital.

An analysis by David S. Bernstein, a former Boston Phoenix journalist, also found that an additional $44,550 came from spouses of those investors, who listed no occupations of their own.

It makes sense that wealthy investors would really to one of their own. The biography on Gomez’s campaign website says Gomez “experienced how onerous taxes and excessive regulation are barriers to job creation.” Elsewhere on his website, he indicates that he wants to reduce the budget deficit through significant spending cuts, but not through new revenue. “We recently raised taxes on the wealthy, and on every worker in America with the payroll tax hike. It is time now to reach across the aisle and work together to enact meaningful spending reductions in a fair and equitable way, without hurting our military preparedness,” he opines. Gomez himself received more than $993,000 last year in salary and bonuses. - Think Progress, 5/7/13

And Gomez isn't afraid to fight dirty:

Before he was a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate from Massachusetts, Gabriel Gomez was active in an organization that released a controversial video attacking President Barack Obama for jeopardizing national security by releasing information related to the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden.

Gomez, a former Navy SEAL, was a media spokesman for Special Operations OPSEC Education Team, a group of former members of the military and intelligence services who say their mission is to stop politicians – particularly Obama – from “politically capitalizing on U.S. national security operations and secrets.”

The group released a 22-minute film in August, during Obama’s reelection campaign, titled “Dishonorable Disclosures: How leaks and politics threaten our national security,” which got more than 5 million views on YouTube.

Much of the film is dedicated to Obama’s handling of the killing of bin Laden, the mastermind behind the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. In the film, retired intelligence and military officers criticize Obama for taking credit for the killing and revealing too much information.

Gomez appeared on MSNBC after the video was released as an OPSEC spokesman. Gomez took a less harsh line against Obama than the film did, saying Obama deserves credit for deciding to kill bin Laden. “You have to give him absolutely 100 percent credit for making the call to send the unit in to get bin Laden,” he said. But Gomez criticized Obama for taking too much credit and not giving enough to the troops.

“The only time that…(Abraham) Lincoln and (Dwight) Eisenhower and other wartime presidents ever used the word 'I' was when they said 'I thank you' to the troops,” Gomez said. “The point of the video is to highlight the difference between the current administration and how they viewed giving credit as opposed to other wartime presidents that have given credit in a different way.”

The Obama campaign accused OPSEC of trying to “Swift Boat” the president, a reference to attacks regarding 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry’s military service in Vietnam. - The Republican, 2/15/13

So yeah, we're just getting started and we have a big and expensive fight ahead of us.  We can't and we won't allow another Republican upset victory to happen.  We know that, Massachusetts Democrats know that, Ed Markey knows that.  He's been a running a great campaign, hitting Gomez on the issues while giving the voters plenty of reasons to vote for him.  Check out his new ad touting his work on telecom policy:

Plus Governor Deval Patrick (D. MA) is out on the campaign trail with Markey:

Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick, left, applauds while joining Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, U.S. Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., at a campaign event in Boston, Wednesday, May 8, 2013. Markey is running against Republican Gabriel Gomez in the June 25 special election.(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat, will attend a campaign rally for Democratic Senate candidate Edward Markey on Wednesday evening.

Patrick and Markey will hold an event, which will be open to the public, at 5:30 p.m. at The Place, a restaurant in downtown Boston. - The Republican, 5/8/13

If you would like to get involved with the Markey campaign or make a donation, you can do so here:

Originally posted to pdc on Wed May 08, 2013 at 11:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Massachusetts Kosmopolitans, In Support of Labor and Unions, and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Suffolk are hacks. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Danno11, webranding, LordMike
    Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

    They have a one out of three chance of being right, I guess.

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Wed May 08, 2013 at 11:21:37 PM PDT

    •  Have to agree. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites, webranding, LordMike

      Not an operation I'd trust.

    •  It doesn't matter if it makes Markey look like a (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      winner. People like to vote for winners.

    •  Suffolk (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Remediator, LordMike, wdrath, northerntier

      Has a very good track record within Massachusetts, as stupid as the VA, NC and FL thing was. I do think, however, that the poll's overly optimistic for Markey at this point. The sample was ten points more favorable to Obama than PPP's (63% favorable vs. 53%), which does not comport with typical lower Democratic turnout for an off-season special election.

      WBUR-MassInc. (WNEU), who does weird polling for primaries but is decent in general election polling, has Markey up 6, 8 with leaners. I'd say he's probably up in high single digits at this point. But we have a lot of work to do.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Thu May 09, 2013 at 06:07:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't like Markey's ads. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    webranding, HappyinNM, LordMike

    Is someone going to clobber Markey with the old Gore slander that he claimes to have invented the internet or Facebook now?

    I don't think pounding away at something Markey vaguely supported 20 yrs ago is useful. I KNOW you are trying to harp experience over...not having any. But this ad focuses on something vague about telecom that Markey did long ago.

    I don't think it's the right way to do it.

    Sorry to be "Debbie Downer". No I can't make a better ad.

    Markey should introduce himself and just say what matters to him. AND THEN have famous in MA people who support him say good things about him.

    Lots of people do not know who Markey is. I haven't liked any of the TV ads I've seen.

    I don't think mentioning how many years ago anything he did was is useful. Say what he's done, how he can work across the isle, but no need to give it a date.

    Doesn't appeal to younger people.

    (I did some work on the campaign last few weeks. There is no way to give feedback in these campaigns, I find, with any chance anyone who matters will hear it. My claim to fame in terms of perception of how things land on MA voters is that I predicated Coakly's loosing five weeks before the election. And told them, and told them what was going on. SO I leave this here now.).

    I like Ed Markey. But I just dont' like his ads because they don't show him in his best light and in fact draw attention to what the unknowing voter will not like about him as much.

    •  I don't think it's his message that's the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      turn off. It's Markey. He's a very boring person. Sort of like Kerry. But he's a pleasure when compared to Gomez. Gomez comes off as a pompous ass. A nasty know-it-all. Even when Scott Brown was being nasty, he never sounded as foul as Gomez. It seems to me that the most important thing Markey's staff can do for him is to keep him up. I wouldn't be surprised if that ad took several takes to get some oomph going.

      •  Im bugged by the ads' content/structure (0+ / 0-)

        if you read my post. So we may disagree there.

        I haven't heard Gomez but if he's as you say I'm glad because I want him to loose for patriotic reasons to be blunt. (because in today's Senate there is no room for a moderate Republican..they are forced to vote with their party and their party is blocking governance of our country)

        Markey's not a live spark and sometimes that's been dissapointing.(I wonder if that is how introverts come across in public?). But I met him very briefly at an event and he was warm and being a good listener-came across fine. Caring, even.

        Funny I like Kerry. I worked on his campaign and saw him around a little bit. ANd I've seen him at "town hall"meetings. So that's overlayed with the boring national persona.

        Did you see his DNC speech last year? a good one. Markeys "acceptance" speech for winning the primary this year was also energetic.

        I think he's an introvert, that's the issue. I think  it may be that some introverts can't project who they are in large groups to the public very well.

        Being in the Senate is about relationships and getting things done in smaller groups. And he's done that expertly in the House. He'll be fine.

        He's a respectful person. I enjoyed hearing of your take on Gomez and will check him out with perverse pleasure. Sounds like he's an extrovert so can't hide from the general public his true nature.

  •  Shit. I Can't Understand (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DefendOurConstitution, brae70

    That commercial you embedded. I am a tech geek and I don't get it. I've only been to Boston twice in my life (love the place BYW) and maybe talking about jobs would work for you. Just saying. I tend to come back to what Clinton said, it is the economy stupid!

  •  Gomez is a Cruz, Rubio wanna be. We got two of (7+ / 0-)

    those already.  Markey is a tough urban progressive who will be there to help a huge part of our American people.  He has a proven track record and I see him as guy who can deal with complexity and maintain his humanity.  I urge everyone to cast your vote for Ed Markey for Senate in MA.

  •  This is good news and it may mean that Gomez' (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    15 minutes of fame are up, but we cannot take anything for granted. While I am not as excited about Markey as I was about Elizabeth Warren, I am going to work very hard to make sure he's my next Senator. We certainly don't want Gomez to be the next Scott Brown.

    Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

    by DefendOurConstitution on Thu May 09, 2013 at 05:29:12 AM PDT

  •  About the swift-boating (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, wdrath
    “The only time that…(Abraham) Lincoln and (Dwight) Eisenhower and other wartime presidents ever used the word 'I' was when they said 'I thank you' to the troops,” Gomez said.
    I just put on Obama's statement announcing Bin Laden's death. It's nearly ten minutes long and he didn't use the word "I" until four minutes in, when he said "I gave the go-ahead" for the raid. A lot of "we" as in "we" the people of the United States and "we" who are responsible for ensuring their safety. Full of praise for the Seal team and the intelligence professionals who tracked Bin Laden down.

    Gomez = typical Republican. Facts don't matter.

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Thu May 09, 2013 at 06:13:03 AM PDT

  •  The Markey ad seems aimed for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Theodore J Pickle

    voters who are career-minded, well-connected, and adept at toggling between information sources with various portable devices -- a demographic very engaged as informed citizens.

    It quietly but surely reminds those voters that there is a high virtue to being informed, and strategically positions Markey as a front-line advocate for said technologies.  

    If the devices are new and savvy, the idea of an informed citizenry is old and essential.  

    Works for me.

  •  Ma won't reward republicans (0+ / 0-)

    A lot of voters aren't crazy about Markey but they won't reward the republicans with another senator to obstruct Obama. The Brown election was a fluke and as long as Markey works hard at campaigning he will win easily.
    I doubt Gomez gets more than 45% of the vote.

  •  52-38 is 14 points not 17 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    there has to be an error somewhere.

  •  the really good news for Markey thus far... (0+ / 0-) that all polls show him ahead; the only question, as far as their accuracy, how much? This poll shows him ahead by 17; the PPP poll showed him ahead by 4; and someone above mentioned a TV poll showed him ahead by 6, which expands to 8 when including leaners.
    The average of all of those polls gives Markey a current lead of 8.75 percent. That's pretty good for someone who is known mostly in the one Congressional district he's represented and who is still introducing himself to votes statewide.

    The key, it seems to me, is for Markey to continue to stake out his position as someone who represents average, everyday, working citizens. This will help him to solidify his position with Democrats and liberals, but also help him to make inroads with the sizeable number of undecideds.

  •  Well, whatever poll is more accurate.... (0+ / 0-)

    ....I'm glad to see Markey and MA Democrats taking this race seriously, unlike Martha Coakley.

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