If you want to see my first two diaries they are here:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
And
http://www.dailykos.com/...
For those just tuning in, this is my algorithm plan for the Texas House of Representatives. I am using the method known as shortest splitline. For wmiv, this map is a lot more detailed in the account of the districts and who represents it. The districts covered here take in the Austin area, some of the San Antonio area, the western part of the metroplex, and all points west.
Also, be sure to read the stuff at the end of the district analysis.
HD 101
Racial Statistics: 68 Wh, 21.7 Hisp, 5.4 Asn, 2.7 Bl, 2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+7.8
Incumbent: Donna Howard D-Austin
Notes: A heavily white and relatively wealthy district in Texas usually will be republican. But in Austin, the normal rules don’t apply here. It’s almost like if someone cut and pasted Montgomery County (MD) onto TX. This should be a safe seat.
HD 102
Racial Statistics: 60.8 Wh, 31.4 Hisp, 3.5 Bl, 2.5 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+22.8
Incumbent: Doug Miller R-New Braunfels
Notes: This takes in most of Comal County which is mostly rural but recently exurbanizing and is ancestrally republican. The rest is in the most heavily GOP parts of north Bexar. Safe R obviously.
HD 103
Racial Statistics: 52.6 Wh, 34.9 Hisp, 6.3 Asn, 4.1 Bl, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+14.6
Incumbent: Lyle Larson R-San Antonio
Notes: The only white majority district entirely within Bexar County. Lots of new homes going up around here and is considered more upscale because of the topography. Safe R.
HD 104
Racial Statistics: 76.9 Wh, 18 Hisp, 2 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 1.2 Bl, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+16.3
Incumbent: Jason Isaac R-Dripping Springs
Notes: This is sort of on the edge of the Balcones Escarpment which is some kind of fault line or something. A lot of ranches and what not in the western part and a lot of acreage and “country estate” subdivisions going up in the eastern part. Not that he’d run for office, but I might add that former CA assemblyman Chuck DeVore lives here. Safe R.
HD 105
Racial Statistics: 45.5 Wh, 43.5 Hisp, 5.3 Bl, 3.8 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+9.2
Incumbent Joe Straus R-San Antonio
Notes: This area is sort of like the Memorial Villages in Houston or the Park Cities in Dallas. It’s relatively close to the downtown, very wealthy and “old money” and ancestrally republican. Straus, as most of you know, is the speaker of the house and is sort of a Bob Michel or Gerald Ford type figure. Not very polarizing and seems to be well liked by people from the other party. Some tea party types have tried to challenge him for speaker but it always falls well short. Safe R.
HD 106
Racial Statistics: 56.4 Wh, 25.2 Hisp, 11.8 Bl, 4.9 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+17.2
Incumbent: John Raney R-Bryan
Notes: Most colleges tend to be liberal, but A&M is considered to be conservative. A lot of kids from rural Texas I think and a lot of military people go there. I’ve never been to “Collie Station” (ever seen there mascot) but I’ve heard the place is almost a cult. They even paint their Whataburger in maroon (school colors) and they have some weird military traditions at football games. Safe R
HD 107
Racial Statistics: 51 Wh, 34.4 Hisp, 6.2 Bl, 6.1 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+26.6
Incumbent: Eliot Naishtat D-Austin
Notes: This is the downtown part of Austin and probably the most Bold Progressive ™ part of Texas. The representative is sort of an example of what Bill Bishop calls “The Big Sort”. A liberal person from New York moving to Texas (Naishtat) would likely gravitate towards Austin.
HD 108
Racial Statistics: 59.5 Wh, 21.1 Hisp, 15.7 Bl, 2.2 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+20
Incumbent: Lois Kolkhorst R-Brenham
Notes: This is sort of where Central Texas meets the coastal plain. This is a largely rural and German district just outside the Houston metro area. I expect some of the exurbanization from the west to spill over into this area by the end of the 2010s. Safe R.
HD 109
Racial Statistics: 55.3 Hisp, 35.7 Wh, 6 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+8.2
Incumbent: Eddie Rodriguez D-Austin
Notes: On first glance this looks like a rural relatively conservative district. But the rural areas surrounding Austin are surprisingly not that conservative and it takes the most dem leaning of the rural/suburban areas along I-35. It also takes in the heavily Hispanic SE part of Travis County. Safe D.
HD 110
Racial Statistics: 52.7 Hisp, 24.1 Wh, 18.9 Bl, 2.5 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+28.3
Incumbent: Dawnna Dukes D-Austin
Notes: This is basically some of the poorer areas on the east side of Austin. Safe D.
HD 111
Racial Statistics: 66.3 Hisp, 29.5 Wh, 2.2 Bl, 1 Asn, 0.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+2.9
Incumbent: Mike Villarreal D-San Antonio
Notes: This takes in some areas just north and northwest of downtown San Antonio. Its mostly working class Mexican American neighborhoods, but its PVI is tempered somewhat by some wealthy GOP enclaves in the far eastern part. This should be a likely D district.
HD 112
Racial Statistics: 60.8 Wh, 28.9 Hisp, 8.2 Bl, 1.3 Oth, 0.5 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+16.4
Incumbent: None
Notes: This is similar to HD 108 except its closer to the Austin area rather than Houston. No incumbent lives here but it should be safe republican.
HD 113
Racial Statistics: 43.9 Wh, 30.9 Hisp, 13.4 Bl, 9.1 Asn, 2.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+5
Incumbent: Mark Strama D-Austin
Notes: This is some dem areas of northern Travis County (the Pflugerville area) between I-35 and the 130 Toll road and some of southern Williamson county. Strama is considered an up and comer despite being of the minority party and should be safe.
HD 114
Racial Statistics: 75.6 Wh, 13.9 Hisp, 4.7 Bl, 3.5 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+22.6
Incumbent: Tan Parker R-Flower Mound
Notes: A lot of this area is still considered cow country, especially that west of I-35. The eastern part is where a lot of subdivisions are going up. This district is where the Texas Motor Speedway is. Safe R.
HD 115
Racial Statistics: 75.4 Wh, 21.2 Hisp, 1.4 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.5 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+29.1
Incumbent: Jimmy Aycock R-Lampasas
Notes: This is a collection of rural areas north and northwest of the “Centroplex”, which is what the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio is called. Geographically, this is the largest district in the state, most of it uninhabitable. Jimmy Aycock lives here, although very few of his old district is here. Since most of his old district is now in a hostile district, he would probably run in this ultra-safe seat.
116
Racial Statistics: 74 Wh, 12.3 Hisp, 8.7 Asn, 2.5 Bl, 2.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+2.3
Incumbent: Paul Workman R-Austin
Notes: This is a very wealthy area with semi-rural estates (that are expensive to build because of the topography) and lake houses along Lake Travis. This is more republican than HD 101 but nowhere near as GOP as the Memorial Villages and Park Cities. I’d put this at Tilt R for now.
HD 117
Racial Statistics: 50 Hisp, 25 Bl, 20.7 Wh, 2.9 Asn, 1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+19.8
Incumbent: Lon Burnam D-Fort Worth and Nicole Collier D-Fort Worth
Notes: This takes in the heavily dem leaning east side of Fort Worth. It’s historically been black but is rapidly turning Hispanic. Burnam from what I know has the reputation of being a kind of “Mr. No” in the state house in his attempt to kill conservative legislation. Hopefully his name rec and tenure can bring home over the top here.
HD 118
Racial Statistics: 49.3 Wh, 40.6 Hisp, 6.5 Bl, 2.1 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+7.8
Incumbent: Craig Goldman R-Fort Worth
Notes: This is some of the wealthy areas of Fort Worth near TCU. I’d put it as likely R.
HD 119
Racial Statistics: 70.5 Wh, 17.3 Hisp, 5.3 Bl, 4.5 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+21.4
Incumbent: None
Notes: These are some very wealthy areas in Tarrant County like Colleyville, Richland Hills, Watauga and Hurst. Since Burnam and Collier were merged, this is an open seat. In this neck of the woods most of the republicans run unopposed
HD 120
Racial Statistics: 80.8 Wh, 15.5 Hisp, 1.7 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.6 Nat, 0.4 Asn
PVI: R+32.5
Incumbent: Phil King R-Weatherford
Notes: Some rural areas just west of the Metroplex. Still kind of scrub land similar to hill country and isn’t quite the Great Plains. This part of Texas has really gone off the deep end for democrats. Jimmy Carter might have cracked sixty percent here.
HD 121
Racial Statistics: 55.6 Wh, 20.6 Bl, 17.3 Hisp, 4.1 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+8.1
Incumbent: Diane Patrick R-Arlington
Notes: This takes in some of the wealthier parts of Arlington in the Pantego and Dalworthington areas and runs north to take in parts of Haltom City and Richland Hills. Should be reasonably safe R.
HD 122
Racial Statistics: 72 Wh, 15.6 Hisp, 8.2 Bl, 1.8 Oth, 1.7 Asn, 0.8 Nat
PVI: R+26
Incumbent: James Frank R-Wichita Falls
Notes: This is essentially Wichita Falls and some of the surrounding rural area (think “Last Picture Show”). This district was actually held by a democrat until 2010. But with the retirement of David Farabee, it’s now safe.
HD 123
Racial Statistics: 70.5 Wh, 21.9 Hisp, 4.1 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.6 Nat
PVI: R+22.6
Incumbent: Charlie Geren R-River Oaks
Notes: This takes in some wealthy secluded areas of western Tarrant County and a lot of still-rural Parker County. Geren (any relation to Pete?) is considered to be (by Texas standards) somewhat of a moderate. Safe R regardless.
HD 124
Racial Statistics: 56.4 Wh, 28.9 Hisp, 6.7 Bl, 5.5 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+16.6
Incumbent: Stephanie Klick R-Fort Worth
Notes: This starts out on the north side of Fort Worth and ventures out into the middle class suburb of Blue Mound and Saginaw and towards the more wealthy Keller in the NE. Will probably be built out the end of the decade but should be safe R.
HD 125
Racial Statistics: 66 Wh, 20.3 Hisp, 11.4 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+20
Incumbent: Doc Anderson R-Waco
Notes: This takes in the more exurban and republican part of McLennan County as well as some surrounding rural areas north on I-35. Safe R.
HD 126
Racial Statistics: 50.2 Wh, 23 Bl, 21.2 Hisp, 3.3 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+4.8
Incumbent: Rob Orr R-Burleson
Notes: This is generally some working class and cheap suburban area south of downtown Fort Worth. Orr would be favored to win here, but the large black population means he will never be completely safe.
HD 127
Racial Statistics: 60.3 Wh, 17.9 Hisp, 16.2 Bl, 3.4 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+13.1
Incumbent: Matt Krause R-Arlington vs. Bill Zedler R-Arlington
Notes: Tarrant County is different from Dallas County in that there is no north-south division politically. This takes in the southern and western parts of Arlington and a lot of other areas where there is still new home construction. It should be safely republican.
HD 128
Racial Statistics: 84.3 Wh, 12.1 Hisp, 1.1 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.6 Nat
PVI: R+30.7
Incumbent: J.D. Sheffield R-Stephenville
Notes: This I think is the whitest district in the state. This is basically a bunch of cattle country. Obviously safe R.
HD 129
Racial Statistics: 69.1 Wh, 18.3 Hisp, 8 Bl, 2.3 Oth, 1.7 Asn, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+23.9
Incumbent: None
Notes: These are some rural areas just west of Waco. I think part of Fort Hood is in this district. No incumbent lives here, but its obviously safe R.
HD 130
Racial Statistics: 64 Wh, 23 Hisp, 9.8 Bl, 1.5 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+19.6
Incumbent: Ralph Sheffield R-Temple
Notes: This takes in the more conservative parts of Bell County (including the city of Temple) and some rural areas to southeast. Also takes in some still-rural areas of McLennan and Williamson counties. Safe R.
HD 131
Racial Statistics: 54.9 Wh, 25.3 Hisp, 16.4 Bl, 1.7 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+13.4
Incumbent: Trent Ashby R-Waco
Notes: This takes in the more urban part of Waco and some rural areas to the SE that were dem until recently. This seat used to belong to Jim Dunnam, who was the house minority leader. He lost reelection in 2010 to Marva Beck who then lost renomination to Trent Ashby this year. Should be a safe seat going forward.
HD 132
Racial Statistics: 39.8 Wh, 28.5 Bl, 21.7 Hisp, 4.8 Asn, 4.6 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: D+5.8
Incumbent: None
Notes: With the exception of South Texas, most of rural Texas is so republican that even the small cities can’t anchor even a state house district that goes dem. But this is one of the few areas that will, which explains why Bell County isn’t as GOP as Amarillo or Lubbock. A lot of this was Jimmy Aycock’s district, but I doubt he would want to run in this hostile seat. Should be safe D.
HD 133
Racial Statistics: 61.6 Wh, 25.6 Hisp, 8.1 Bl, 2.4 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+14.3
Incumbent: Marsha Farney R-Georgetown
Notes: This takes in the middle part of Williamson County and some rural areas of southern Bell County. Should be Safe R.
HD 134
Racial Statistics: 60.9 Wh, 32.7 Hisp, 3.8 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+26.9
Incumbent: Drew Darby R-San Angelo
Notes: This seat is based in San Angelo and takes in some rural areas to the north. Safe R.
HD 135
Racial Statistics: 47.9 Wh, 36.1 Hisp, 6.9 Bl, 6.9 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+7.5
Incumbent: None
Notes: This is basically some inner ring areas north and northwest of downtown Austin. Should be safe for a democrat
HD 136
Racial Statistics: 73.2 Wh, 16.8 Hisp, 4.6 Asn, 3.1 Bl, 2 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+15.2
Incumbent: Larry Gonzalez R-Round Rock
Notes: Basically a lot of sprawl areas in Williamson county along HWY 183 and some super hilly, lakefront, secluded and wealthy areas in Travis County (and the most GOP part of the county). Safe R.
HD 137
Racial Statistics: 66.4 Wh, 27.5 Hisp, 3.4 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+32.6
Incumbent: Ken King R-Pampa
Notes: This area is a hybrid between a western type of rugged individualism but still far east enough to have a lot of fundie influence. We’re talking about some of the most RW areas in the country. Some of this area has been voting republican for president since 1952. Some of this area was represented by democrats in the state legislature though, until the 90s. The previous representative of this area, Warren Chisum (who’s now a RR commissioner) was initially elected as a democrat. But yeah, safe R.
HD 138
Racial Statistics: 53.9 Wh, 33.5 Hisp, 7 Bl, 3.6 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.6 Nat
PVI: R+32.3
Incumbent: Walt Price R-Amarillo
Notes: similar to HD 137 only with a more “urban” influence. Only problem is that its Amarillo we’re talking about which is almost as right wing as the rural area that surrounds it. Safe R.
HD 139
Racial Statistics: 58.2 Wh, 33.1 Hisp, 6.8 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+26.9
Incumbent: Drew Springer R-Vernon vs. Phil Stephens R-Crosbyton
Notes: This is the part of Texas that has seen the biggest collapse in yellow dog support in the past twenty years. Dukakis might have actually won this district and Rick Perry represented a lot of this area in the legislature. Unlike the areas to the west and north (rancher types and wheat counties) this area was known as the “cotton counties” and, as I said above, stayed with the democrats much longer (and a lot of this area continued to elect Charlie Stenholm to the US House until ten years ago). Even the western part of this district elected a democrat to the state legislature until 2010 and at one point was represented by Pete Laney, who was speaker in the 90s. Still, it’s safe R.
HD 140
Racial Statistics: 73.2 Wh, 19.5 Hisp, 4.1 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+30.5
Incumbent: Susan King R-Abilene vs Jim Keffer R-Eastland
Notes: This is sort of a transition between Central Texas and West Texas. That is a transition between the sort of hilly areas in the old 11th (pre-2004) and the flatter areas of the old 17th CD. Abilene probably contains about half the district’s population, but like a lot of the small cities, is almost as conservative as the surrounding areas (and more ancestrally republican FWIW). Safe R.
HD 141
Racial Statistics: 53.6 Wh, 33.7 Hisp, 8.7 Bl, 2.4 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+17.4
Incumbent: Charles Perry R-Lubbock
Notes: Life in Lubbock, Texas, taught me two things: One is that God loves you and you're going to burn in Hell. The other is that sex is the most awful, filthy thing on Earth and you should save it for someone you love.
That aside, I would say that this is a testament to how republican most of the small cities in Texas are (besides JeffCo). You can draw a relatively dense HD almost entirely within a city and still have it be R+17. And unlike some of the other small cities, there is a large state school (Texas Tech). But Texas Tech tends to attract a lot of farmer types from rural Texas and is probably almost as conservative as A&M. Safe R.
HD 142
Racial Statistics: 53.6 Wh, 40.3 Hisp, 3.2 Bl, 1.3 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+34.2
Incumbent: Tryon Lewis R-Odessa
Notes: Most of this district is in Odessa. My general impression of Odessa (courtesy of HG Bissinger) is a dusty West Texas town full of Uncle Rico types pissed off that they never amounted to anything after high school. Need I say what party this is safe for?
HD 143
Racial Statistics: 56 Wh, 39.7 Hisp, 2.2 Bl, 0.8 Asn, 0.8 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+32.2
Incumbent: John Frullo R-Lubbock
Notes: This takes in some suburban parts of Lubbock and Amarillo as well as some rural counties on the NM border. Much of this area has gone republican in every election since 1948, with the exception of 1964. Safe R
HD 144
Racial Statistics: 57.2 Wh, 36.1 Hisp, 4.2 Bl, 1.2 Asn, 0.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+29.8
Incumbent: None
Notes: This is similar to HD 143 politically speaking. No incumbent lives here, but Phil Stephens doesn’t live too far outside this district’s boundaries and could run here. Regardless Safe R.
HD 145
Racial Statistics: 51.6 Hisp, 39.6 Wh, 7 Bl, 0.9 Oth, 0.5 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+24.3
Incumbent: Tom Craddick R-Midland
Notes: Midland, which is probably about half the district’s population, is ancestrally republican. Midland County hasn’t voted D for president since 1948. The stereotype of Midland is of wealthy oil tycoons in the mold of H.L. Hunt or J.R. Ewing. It has been represented by a republican for the past 52 years and in 1965 was the only district in the lower house to send a republican to Austin (would he like be ranking member on all the committees?). 44 of those years, it has been represented by Tom Craddick, the most senior member of the legislature. He was speaker of the house at one point but was deposed. The other parts of this district are mostly typical west Texas desert and some border counties with Mexican American populations to the south. Safe R.
HD 146
Racial Statistics: 79.7 Hisp, 15 Wh, 2.9 Bl, 1.1 Asn, 1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+15.8
Incumbent: Marisa Marquez D-El Paso
Notes: I’ve always wondered why the Texas border juts out so far west. I’ve always thought it would have been better to have the 104th meridian as the boundary with New Mexico. El Paso is culturally more like New Mexico and some of the eastern parts of New Mexico such as Hobbs, Clovis, Portales (ie Steve Pearce country) are culturally more like the white areas of West Texas. But anyways, this is a downtown El Paso district and safely democratic.
HD 147
Racial Statistics: 68.6 Hisp, 23.8 Wh, 4.1 Bl, 2.1 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+1.6
Incumbent: Joe Moody D-El Paso
Notes: This is some of the wealthier and more republican areas of El Paso. But a moderate Henry Cuellar type democrat should be fine here. I don’t know if Moody fits that description though.
HD 148
Racial Statistics: 85 Hisp, 12.5 Wh, 1.3 Bl, 0.4 Asn, 0.4 Nat, 0.4 Oth
PVI: D+9.9
Incumbent: Poncho Nevarez D-Alpine
Notes: This is mostly some rural border counties and also takes in some of the exurban parts of El Paso. Before being elected to congress, this was Pete Gallego’s district. Safe D.
HD 149
Racial Statistics: 90.9 Hisp, 6.8 Wh, 1.2 Bl, 0.6 Asn, 0.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+19.1
Incumbent: Mary Gonzalez D-El Paso
Notes: I’ve never been to El Paso but one thing I’ve noticed is that the more exurban areas are actually the poorer parts of the metro area. Quite different from the Houston or DFW metro areas. Gonzalez is a freshman and one of the youngest members of the legislature. Safe D.
HD 150
Racial Statistics: 81.8 Hisp, 12.8 Wh, 3.4 Bl, 0.9 Asn, 0.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+13.2
Incumbent: Joe Pickett D-El Paso vs Naomi Gonzalez D-El Paso
Notes: This is some areas to the north and east of downtown El Paso and includes the airport and some uninhabited areas near the NM border. This is a member on member district. Not that it matters but Pickett is white and is sort of a blue dog like Sil Reyes. He’s been in the legislature for nearly 20 years. Gonzalez is fairly young and has been in the legislature for only about half dozen years or so. Regardless of who would win the primary here, it’s a safe D district.
So with all of this noted, there would be 101 RPVI seats and 49 DPVI seats. 49 should be the minimum number of seats the dems should have and there are another several districts that Obama won but less than his national % since most Texas republicans are probably too conservative to win those. Another thing of note is the fact that the 75th and 76th seats here (median) are R+12 and R+13.1; while Texas as a whole is R+9.9 (this is 08 numbers). So that means there is an anti-liberal bias of 2.65 points. I found this interesting because I had always assumed that it was the other way around in Texas. Republican voters tended to pack themselves into several middle to upper class high income areas with high turnout. Nonetheless, I’d be bullish on this map since the democrats can only gain seats here. I don’t think they’ll get to 74 seats like they did after 2008, due to loss of demosaurs but I think they can gain some seats since all the GOP trending areas of the state would be already represented by republicans.