(I posted this diary at just about midnight Central Time on Sunday. Since there's some ambiguity with references to "today" due to time zone differences, I'm referring to storms developing on Sunday, May 19.)
Not prepared to do a long post like I normally do, but I wanted to make sure the Plains-dwellers among us know about the very dangerous severe thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon across parts of the Central Plains, focused on eastern parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
Here's the threat map from the Storm Prediction Center as of around midnight or so. The worst severe thunderstorms will develop across Oklahoma and Kansas in the area shaded in red -- a moderate risk for severe weather. Hail to the size of baseballs and even softballs is possible, along with the potential for several violent, long-lived tornadoes.
The yellow shaded area denotes a slight risk for severe weather. While this area is under a lessened threat for severe weather, severe weather is still severe weather. Damage can (and likely will) still occur outside of the highest threat area.
Green indicates a risk for general, non-severe thunderstorms.
The following map shows the probability for severe weather across the country. A 45% risk means that there's a 45% risk for severe weather (quarter sized hail, 60+ mph winds, or a tornado) within 25 miles of any point within the shaded area. 15% warrants concern, so the 30% and 45% risk zones are even worse.
The black hatching indicates the risk for significant severe weather -- 70+ MPH winds, hail larger than golf balls (again, baseball to softball sized hail is possible), along with violent, long-lived tornadoes.
Please keep up with your local National Weather Service office for the latest updates and warnings, as well as the Storm Prediction Center for the latest severe weather watches and forecasts.
I might start a liveblog this afternoon if extremely dangerous storms threaten larger population centers. Many people who read and participate in DailyKos live in these areas.
I'll post the most dangerous storms to my Facebook page.
Stay safe.