Skip to main content

In this diary  I outlined a method for finding vulnerable Republican representatives.

Now, it's time for more research. Twitter handles. Positions. Dumbass statements. A start on this is below the fold; since this involves a lot of work and a lot of text, I'm dividing it up by state.  Today, California and Colorado.

Oh, and if YOU have information on these people, PLEASE share it.  

CALIFORNIA

In CA-10, Obama got 50.6% and Jeff Denham got 54%.  CA-10 centers on Modesto, CA. It is east of San Francisco and west of Yosemite; it is almost entirely Stanislaus county. Denham has been in Congress since 2010, when he replaced the retiring George Radanovich in the old CA-19. In the 2012 race, he got $300,000 from the crop production industry and $184,000 from the casino industry. He outraised his opponent (Jose Hernandez), $2.7 million to $1.7 million. Denham tweets as @RepJeffDenham.

Denham has been endorsed by the NRA, the Chamber of Commerce and the Tea Party Express. Denham was one of 13 Republican House members targeted by Organizing for Action. CREW rated him as one of the most corrupt congressmen in 2010. Denham has filed papers to run for Lt. Gov. of CA in 2014. If he does run for re-election, opponents are Mike Barkley  and Michael Eggman.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama got 54.6% of the vote in CA-21 where  David Valadao got 58%, beating John Hernandez by 16 points. CA-21 is a large district more or less in the center of CA. It is bisected by Interstate 5; it includes all of Tulare and part of Fresno counties.  Valadao is in his first term. His biggest sources of money were the crop production and dairy industry. In 2012, he raised $1.3 million and his opponent raised only $123,000. Valadao tweets as both @dgvaladao and @RepDavidValadao.

Valadao has been endorsed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the NRA, the Chamber of Commerce and the Tea Party Express. Valadao  was one of 13 Republican House members targeted by Organizing for Action. Possible opponents in 2014 include Blong Xiong, Leticia Perez and Fran Florez.  See also this diary by RVKU.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama got 47.8% in CA-25 where Buck McKeon got 56%.  CA-25 is due north of Los Angeles, but, because of the geography of the state, it is not coastal but central CA. It includes Santa Clarita and Palmdale. It includes part of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. McKeon has been a member of congress sinc 1993. In 2012, his biggest donors were various parts of the defense industry (McKeon is chair of the Armed Services committee, although he never served in the armed forces). In 2012 he raised almost $2,000,000 and his opponent raised $374,000. McKeon tweets as @BuckMcKeon.

McKeon has been endorsed by the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. CREW rated McKeon has one of the most corrupt members of congress in 2012. The Buck stops now is a website aimed at his defeat in 2014, but there are no opponents that I know of.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama got 57.2% of the vote in CA-31, where Gary Miller got 55%, but this was a strange case where the new California system of having a general primary and then a runoff hurt the Democrats, who fielded a lot of candidates.  CA-31 is a bizarrely shaped district due east of LA. It includes Rancho Cucamunga, San Bernadino and Redlands. Miller was first elected in 2002, but until this cycle represented CA-42. Miller has been the subject of numerous allegations of financial wrongdoing, including claiming that land he voluntarily sold to various cities was taken by eminent domain (thus allowing him to pay lower taxes) and directing government money to his favorite nonprofits.  He also appears to have lied about his military record, saying he served in Vietnam for two years when records show he was discharged after boot camp (see Harpers. In 2012, Miller's biggest source of funds was the real estate industry. In 2012, he outraised his opponent $1.3 million to $387,000. Miller tweets as @RepGaryMiller.

Miller has been endorsed by the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. Miller was one of 13 Republican House members targeted by Organizing for Action.  Opponents in 2014 include Pete Aguilar and possibly Kevin de Leon. See also this diary by RVKU.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 In CA-39 Obama got 47.1% and  Ed Royce got 59%.  CA-39 is southeast of LA and north of Anaheim; it includes parts of Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Royce has been in congress since 1993, serving as the representative of CA-40 until redistricting. In the 2012 cycle, his biggest donations came from the insurance and securities industries. He outraised his opponent, Jay Chen, $2.7 million to $800,000. Royce tweets as @RepEdRoyce.

Royce has been endorsed by the Life Priority Network, the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce.  I know of no opponents.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In CA-49, Obama got 45.7% while Darrell Issa got 59%.  CA-49 is a large coastal district between Los Angeles and San Diego. It includes San Clemente, Oceanside and Encinitas, it is mostly Sand Diego county. Issa has been in Congress since 2001. In 2012, his biggest donors were the retirement and legal industries. He outraised his opponent hugely: $2.5 million to $131,000; he has had far more money than every one of his opponents for Congress over the years. Issa tweets as @DarrellIssa.

Issa has been endorsed by the Life Priority Network, the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. CREW rated Issa as one of the most corrupt members of congress in 2012.  I know of no opponents.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
here is a map of CA congressional districts, drawn by Daily Kos Elections.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO

In CO-03 Obama got 45.8% while Scott Tipton got 53.4%.  CO-03 is the western half of CO. It includes Durango and Pueblo. Tipton was first elected in 2010, beating John Salazar. In 2012 his biggest donors were the retirement and oil and gas industry. In 2012, he raised $2.3 million and his opponent raised $2.0 million.  Tipton tweets as @RepTipton.

Tipton has been endorsed by the Gun Owners of America, the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. Potential opponents include Joseph Garcia, Angela Giron and Gail Schwartz.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama got 51.6% in CO-06 where Mike Coffman got 49% (his Democratic opponent got 45%, the remainder was split between Kathy Polhemus (unaffiliated) and Patrick Provost (libertarian)).   CO-06 wraps around most of Denver. Coffman was first elected in 2008. In 2012 his biggest donors were the retirement and oil and gas industries. Coffman tweets as @RepMikeCoffman.

Coffman has been endorsed by the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. One potential opponent, Morgan Carroll, has said she is not running. , Andrew Romanoff is running. See also this diary by RVKU.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is a map of CO's congressional districts

Sources:
Wikipedia, DKE, Open Secrets, Twitter, Organizing for America, Vote Smart, CREW, Ballotopedia.

Still to come:

FL-02          Southerland, Steve           46.5
FL-07          Mica, John                       47.1
FL-10         Webster, Dan                  45.7
FL-13          Young, Bill                       50.1
FL-15         Ross, Dennis                   45.6
FL-25          Diaz-Balart, Mario             48.7
FL-27          Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana          53.1

IA-03          Latham, Tom                    51.4

IL-13           Davis, Rodney                 48.6

MI-06         Upton, Fred                      48.8
MI-07         Walberg, Tim                    47.9
MI-08         Rogers, Mike J.                 48.0
MI-11          Bentivolio, Kerry               46.9

MN-02         Kline, John                       49.1
MN-03         Paulsen, Erik                    49.6

NE-02         Terry, Lee                      45.7

NV-03         Heck, Joe                        49.5

NJ-03          Runyan, Jon                     51.8
NJ-05         Garrett, Scott                   47.9
NJ-07          Lance, Leonard                46.3
NJ-11          Frelinghuysen, Rodney       46.6

NY-02         King, Peter                       51.6
NY-11         Grimm, Michael                  51.6
NY-22         Hanna, Richard                 48.8
NY-23          Reed, Tom                      48.4

OH-01         Chabot, Steve                 46.3
OH-10         Turner, Michael                48.2
OH-14         Joyce, David                    47.6

PA-06         Gerlach, Jim                     48.1
PA-07          Meehan, Pat                   48.5
PA-15         Dent, Charlie                    47.9

VA-02         Rigell, Scott                     50.1
VA-04         Forbes, Randy                  48.8
VA-10         Wolf, Frank                      48.8

WA-03        Herrera Beutler, Jaime        47.9

PA-16          Pitts, Joe                       46.3

OH-15         Stivers, Steve                 46.3

VA-05         Hurt, Robert                    45.9

WI-01         Ryan, Paul                       47.4
WI-06         Petri, Tom                      45.8
WI-07         Duffy, Sean                     47.8
WI-08         Ribble, Reid                      47.6

Poll

Should this series continue?

83%106 votes
10%13 votes
3%4 votes
0%1 votes
2%3 votes

| 127 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  This is great stuff! You are illustrating that we (12+ / 0-)

    can break down the regional races where there is vulnerability, and your diary shows where to organize and expend time, money and effort.

    Very well done. Thank you.

    And as a former Michigander I would really love to see that Whirlpool heir winger Freddy Upton get bumped from office.

  •  great to see you and your work again plf! (9+ / 0-)

    looking forward to your diary on vulnerable FL repubs. especially want to knock out Bill Young in fl-13.  No one should be in congress as long as he has while trying to undermine governments existence.  Hope 2014 is our year.  Also would love to see Gwen Graham (Bob Grahams daughter) defeat Southerland in fl-02. With lots of work and money Fl can do more than it's share to win back the house.

    Macca's Meatless Monday

    by VL Baker on Sun May 26, 2013 at 05:10:42 AM PDT

  •  Tipped and recommended (12+ / 0-)

    This is the sort of diary that fits in the center of what DKos is about - electing more and better democrats.

    “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

    by ivorybill on Sun May 26, 2013 at 06:01:52 AM PDT

  •  This list is similar to other (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Iberian, plf515, a2nite, Eric Nelson

    lists I've seen of the most likely CDs to chang hands (including the FP one from a week or two ago). But the reality is that the districts activists are supposed to work for and donate to cannot be known until we know which Dem candidate(s) are running. Some think we should back the longshots if they're very liberal, others believe in a more pragmatic approach. But without candidates, there's not much to do.

  •  No opponent so far (9+ / 0-)

    for Darrell Issa, the conspiracy kook who put California through that idiotic recall election a few years back?  He should have one just for having started out in the car alarm business.

    I demand that Darrell Issa hold hearings on this immediately!

    I shall die, but that is all that I shall do for Death; I am not on his payroll. - Edna St. Vincent Millay

    by Tara the Antisocial Social Worker on Sun May 26, 2013 at 06:52:22 AM PDT

    •  Issa started out as a car thief (5+ / 0-)

      It has been all been a moral downhill slide from there.

      Because of California's top two primary system, Issa is vulnerable to a scenario in which a Republican bests him in the primary, splitting the Republican votes, and thereby allows a Democratic challenger with all the Democratic votes to beat both of them, or just Issa, and go into the General Election against the Republican challenger.

      Yes, this scenario is a stretch, but it could happen, and Howard Dean taught us we should contest every office in every district. We can't win if we don't try.

      Carbon di-oxide in the atmosphere is now 400ppm. That is "Climate Cluster Chaos". (hat tip to JeffW for CCC)

      by Zinman on Sun May 26, 2013 at 09:31:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't disagree ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Zinman

        ... but I think the real difficulty in beating him is that he's the wealthiest member of Congress, and is arrogant and nutso enough to spend who knows how much of his half-billion dollar fortune to keep his job, in a horrendously expensive district.  But if we can find and fund a solid Democratic challenger, I'm all supportive.

        •  Jerry Tetalman is your answer (4+ / 0-)

          He's who I'd support for another run in 2014 and he got 41% of the vote against Darrell Issa in 2012.  He's 100% progressive and actually ran a rather focused and legitimate campaign.  When you get 41% of the vote against one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress with considerably less cash than your opponent and absolutely no support from any grassroots groups or even from the DNC or DSCC, something's going on.

          I've actually had the pleasure of interviewing Jerry Tetalman myself and I found him to be straight forward and had a lot of ideas, not to mention very bright and observant.  He's also something what Darrell Issa isn't:  A real businessman who also happens to be extremely down to earth.

          On the other hand, if you guys can get someone else in CA-49 to run who is decent, I'm ready to roll with him anyway.

        •  I should also mention this... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          plf515, Zinman

          Tetalman is really not afraid of confrontation at all.  He actually went after Darrell Issa's Vista, CA office, helped mount a protest and according to Tetalman's campaign manager, one of the postal union representatives met with Issa's legislative aide on site at the protest.  The discussion was not short from what I was told.

          The CA-49 district is not as red as people think it is but then again, it's not blue or quite purple either.  The sooner voter registration drives are done, the better off we are.

          •  Cool! Thanks for the information (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            IndianaProgressive

            As I've said, I rely on other for things I miss.

            •  Anything I can do to help :) (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              plf515, Zinman, 4Freedom

              I only started reporting Jerry Tetalman's campaign in September 2012 and boy, I realized noting that Tetalman received 41% of the votes, considering he campaigned since November 2011, I really should have been reporting the campaign much sooner.

              I also, kid you not, got quite a few people talking to me who were looking to phone bank for Tetalman and who actually were donating to him.  Also interesting at one point one of my diaries noting a fundraising bomb happening I believe a week or two before the election.  In that diary, I was reporting Tetalman and his campaign announced a fundraising goal.  I reported that on Kos and the diary got over 80 Twitter tweets.  Amazing what blogs can do.

          •  Tetalman will get strong labor support (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            plf515

            If Tetalman runs again, retired Postal workers and the families of Postal workers will be solidly in his corner. Issa is hated in Postal circles for his sponsorship of the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act (PAEA) of 2006, which is the reason the Postal Service is being crushed between legislated inability to raise rates to meet costs and the Draconian requirement to pre-fund retiree health costs 75 years into the future at a $5 billion dollar a year clip. If you believe Issa did not intend to kill and privatize the USPS with PAEA, then you probably think the Earth is flat.

            If Tetalman runs again he will get my support, and I will not stand alone.

            Carbon di-oxide in the atmosphere is now 400ppm. That is "Climate Cluster Chaos". (hat tip to JeffW for CCC)

            by Zinman on Sun May 26, 2013 at 05:28:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Jerry Tetalman is 100% pro labor (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zinman, plf515

              I guarantee you, if Tetalman runs again in 2014 and wins, he will be a life saver for California's 49th Congressional District.  In fact, he'll be a great Congressman.  You cannot say enough of someone who goes to regular peace conferences and has met with people like Desmond Tutu.

              And Jerry will support postal workers again:

        •  First prize is, we take him out (0+ / 0-)

          Second prize is, we make him spend it all.

          Cover me, Melvert! I gotta leave the Sovrin Independent Free Market Collective of Fortress Libertopia to go get our disability checks!

          by AdmiralNaismith on Mon May 27, 2013 at 12:48:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Mike Coffamn, if you recall, (11+ / 0-)

    is the one who said he didn't know where Obama was born, but he knew that "in his heart he is not American".

    liberal bias = failure to validate or sufficiently flatter the conservative narrative on any given subject

    by RockyMtnLib on Sun May 26, 2013 at 07:08:38 AM PDT

  •  In CO-3, (8+ / 0-)

    my State Rep, Mike MacLauchlin(State House #59), has apparently survived a recall attempt when the recallers failed to gather enough sigs to force a recall election. But they will turn out in big numbers to vote against him in 2014. The complete nutcase/UN Agenda 21 believer, J Paul Brown has said he will run against McLaughlin(Brown lost to McLaughlin by a few dozen votes in 2012) again. I expect a well funded race there. The GOP'ers will have enthusiasum...and they also will vote for Tipton.

    Tipton was funded by national GOP groups & I expect the same in 2014. The GOP knows his seat is winnable by a Dem. He's not that bright--but neither are his voters. They are good at parroting talking points & hating Obama, less good at getting out the vote. A lot will depend on who the Dems run against him--Sal Pace wasn't up to the job last time.

    The better I know people, the more I like my dog.

    by Thinking Fella on Sun May 26, 2013 at 07:40:53 AM PDT

  •  California's 49th district is very red. (5+ / 0-)

    Issa will be a tough nut to crack. The 49th is almost literally surrounded by red districts. The 42nd is Ken Calvert, the 45th is John Campbell, the 48th is Dana Rohrabacher and the 50th is Duncan Hunter. The only district that is bordering Issa's that is the Blue is the 52nd, and that is Scott Peters' district. Peters is the first Democrat to be representing the 50th district  since 1992. The district was redrawn for the 2012 race and now abuts the 49th. Peters won by 6000 votes over an idiot named Brian Bilbray who replaced Randy Cunningham when the Duke was caught receiving bribes and did time. Unless there is some seriously crazy gerrymandering, I don't see the 49th flipping in my lifetime.

    "I'm gonna dance between the raindrops"

    by IB JOHN on Sun May 26, 2013 at 08:01:20 AM PDT

    •  Issa will be tough (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IB JOHN, Nailbanger, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

      in part because he has the ability to outspend almost anyone. However, Obama did OK there, and Issa is, of course, nuts.

      •  That was an unintended pun. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

        But he is nuts.
        This was an excellent post BTW. Sunday morning at the keyboard with a big cup of hot coffee, reading about politics. Life is good here in San Diego.

        "I'm gonna dance between the raindrops"

        by IB JOHN on Sun May 26, 2013 at 08:31:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          IB JOHN, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

          I will continue the series.

          •  Is it possible that Jerry Tetalman could be.. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            plf515, 4Freedom, davybaby

            ..interested in another run for CA - 49 to beat Issa?

            Because against great odds Tetalman did remarkably well considering the redness, losing by 41.8% - 114,893 votes to 58.2% -  159,785 votes

            Kos had an interesting take: Losing House races is great practice for winning House races

            With a list of winning Dems who previously lost:

            Here's a list of Democrats elected in 2012 who have lost previous Congressional races:

            AZ-01, Ann Kirkpatrick. Third race (won in 2008, lost in 2010).
             CA-07, Ami Bera. Second race (lost in 2010).
             CA-41, Mark Takano. Third race (lost in 1992 & 1994).
             FL-09, Alan Grayson. Fourth race (lost primary in 2006, won in 2008, lost in 2010).
             FL-26, Joe Garcia. Third race (lost in 2008 & 2010).
             IL-08, Tammy Duckworth. Second race (lost in 2006).
             IL-11, Bill Foster. Fourth race (won special & general in 2008, lost in 2010).
             MN-08, Rick Nolan. Fifth race (lost in 1972, won in 1974, 1976 & 1978).
             NV-03, Dina Titus. Third race (won in 2008, lost in 2010).
             NH-01, Carol Shea-Porter. Fourth race (won in 2006 & 2008, lost in 2010).
             NH-02, Ann McLane Kuster. Second race (lost in 2010).
             NY-24, Dan Maffei. Fourth race (lost in 2006, won in 2008, lost in 2010).
             WA-10, Denny Heck. Second race (lost in 2010).

            Kossack pipsorcle covered Jerry Tetalman race here and post race Here

            Even if Issa has too many resources $$$ and his district is red it would be a very good thing to put some fear into the republicans, especially arrogant assholes like Issa. It would be a huge blow for the GOP to lose their passive aggressive henchman.

            Thx plf515 - very good strategizing going on

            •  All I know is what I can find on Google :-) (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

              I rely on people with local knowledge to fill in the gaps.

              •  Get a hold of Francine Busby (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                plf515, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

                She's the Chair of The San Diego County Democratic Party.  She also was the biggest and most vocal Jerry Tetalman supporter in local politics.

                •  Wow, she became chair? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  plf515

                  She did misstep a little and ought to have won the special election to win Cunningham's seat, but that's well in the past.  Was she the Chair in the 2012 season when Dems won the Mayor, a Supervisor seat, CA-52, and held the city council majority?

                  "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                  by KingofSpades on Sun May 26, 2013 at 04:13:25 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yes sir! (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    plf515

                    Francine Busby, the one who originally challenged Brian Busby not once but twice for Congress, is running the San Diego County Democratic Party.  And now Bilbray lost the election last November.  Amazing.

                    http://www.sddemocrats.org/...

                    •  But was she chair in the 2012 election cycle too? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      plf515

                      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                      by KingofSpades on Sun May 26, 2013 at 06:22:31 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Not that I recall (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        plf515

                        I believe she was elected to be Chairwoman this year.

                        •  Ok, I hope she does well. (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          plf515

                          A hard act to follow after 2012 for SD Dems.

                          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                          by KingofSpades on Sun May 26, 2013 at 06:46:08 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  SD Dems should have plenty of ammunition (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            plf515

                            Darrell Issa's credibility is going way down the tank right now, I imagine the Democratic base will be fired up more in 2014 than in 2012.  Francine Busby knows a thing or two about it because she actually faced similar odds herself before when she was running more than once in a Congressional race against Republicans.

            •  That's me - The diarist (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              plf515, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

              You're welcome to ask me any questions on Jerry Tetalman.  Something to also keep in mind, no Democratic candidate who Tetalman faced even generated much enthusiasm nor had much if any campaign strategy.  What I remember from the information I was given (and I was the Tetalman for Congress mailing list) was that Jerry and his campaign manager were busy planning things strategically and the campaign got busier and busier in the weeks and days ahead of the election.  The objective was to drive as much turnout as possible although Tetalman himself never received any support outside of the CA-49 district.

              But he does have activism blood.   He's been doing it for a long time:

    •  Not as red as it used to be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      4Freedom, plf515

      Due to restricting, the district now has more Democrats and registered Decline-to-State (perhaps Independent) voters.  

      Here's the total tally of the votes:

      Darrell Issa:  159,725
      Jerry Tetalman:  114,893

      Now the following factors come into play:

      1)  With Issa having a 44,832 vote margin over Tetalman, that doesn't indicate a deep red district.  If anything, it's more lean Republican at this point.  Even lean Republican is still predominately GOP in voter registration but it's also not safe Republican by any means.

      2)  To date, even since September 2012, I have not heard a single political analyst or commentator give me proof that Issa's district is safe Republican.  No real raw data as in voter registration statistics.

      3)  41% of the votes for a Democratic challenger against Issa.  Considering Jerry Tetalman, the 2012 challenger, got just that percentage last November but no support from any real outside grassroots groups like Democracy for America or even DCCC (even though Tetalman is 100% progressive), it's possible the turnout and voter registration might have changed the picture a bit if Tetalman had donations from the DCCC and national news coverage by MSNBC or any other news outlet.

  •  these republicans benefit greatly because their (5+ / 0-)

    dem opponents and their supporters won't know how much support they're getting thanks to the local rat wing radio stations, their local blowhards, and the coordination with the GOP.

    for instance, the reps mentioned above will likely be able to get on their local and state talk radio stations on a regular or specifically timed basis for very friendly interviews.

    that may mean an hour on a morning or afternoon show before or after limbaugh and hannity, etc.

    they'll get to repeat the lies and misinformation on a specific topic bothering their campaign, for instance, without challenge from the host. then the local talker may put through a few or a bunch of callers to berate their democratic opponent and maybe suggest a rumor, etc. some of those callers may be working for the local GOP.

    some of that may happen on very loud megastations reaching tens of thousands of casual/non-teabagger listeners  trying to get the latest traffic report on their commute.

    most of the rest of the time, these stations do free advertising and swiftboating for the GOP, paid for by local (often dem-owned) businesses trying to advertise on the loudest stations in the state. many of the loudest stations also broadcast sports for state-owned public education institutions.

    so the colorado GOP can use 850 KOA (and others), which used to reach 38 states at night, to support and make excuses for those CO GOP reps and swiftboat their dem opponents as needed. and KOA can announce during some of that local blowhard partisanship "850 KOA, home of the Buffs (CU) and Rush Limbaugh!"

    it's a crying shame so many good progressive candidates will lose to teabagger idiots in every state again this season because the democratic party and the progressive groups and their activists ignore this dynamic, don't have a written record of the lies they can take to the media, and continue to waste donations and activist hours by not having a response.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Sun May 26, 2013 at 08:04:52 AM PDT

    •  PS thanks for these diaries! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

      This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

      by certainot on Sun May 26, 2013 at 08:05:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, we are stopping Rush (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      certainot, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom

      I've been doing a lot of tweeting in that effort.

      •  it's fantastic, and it's a start. he's the point (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Eric Nelson, 4Freedom, Zinman

        man and he's losing his royal certainty because of it but how much damage will the whole monopoly still do in the next elections? especially if they manage to keep him behind the megaphone till 2014.

        there is plenty more that can be done and it's a bloody shame the left's major orgs and the democratic party continue to ignore it and don't respect how much damage it does on behalf of the 1%.

        global warming doesn't give us time to keep ignoring it.

        This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

        by certainot on Sun May 26, 2013 at 09:21:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  While I'm not sure how much impact right-wing (4+ / 0-)

      radio really has--listeners may call themselves "casual/non-teabaggers," but their willingness to tune in to that garbage at least somewhat calls that into question. Are those actually "our" votes being siphoned of by "on-air personalities," or are they just sheepish about admitting their political views?

      Not that I'm saying we should forfeit the "air wars" without a fight, but we should be realistic about the percentage of that audience would ever vote for Democrats.

      I'm more rankled by the idea of Democrats, either as business owners or their customers, underwriting Republican efforts. I think we need to end that.

      It matters not how small the beginning may seem to be: what is once well done is done forever. Henry David Thoreau, in Civil Disobedience

      by Had Enough Right Wing BS on Sun May 26, 2013 at 08:35:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the 3 'scandals' that have taken so much time (4+ / 0-)

        and effort recently and the debt ceiling 'crisis' that ended in sequestration and a long list going back 25 years- are all talk radio successes. all dem defeats and compromises the last 25 yrs were probably significantly easier because the left ignored the radio.

        the problem isn't that the base audience is relatively small.

        they are well disinformed and they are well timed and easily motivated and loudly reinforced by a well coordinated monopoly of megaphones. the GOP sycophants depend on that made-to-order constituency to keep them intimidated and enabled- in line and on message.

        and in election season they influence the apathetic 4 yr voters.

        and in most parts of the country RW radio is the ONLY source for free politics while driving or working. and many of those low pop states still have 2 senators.

        without that unchallenged monopoly there would be no fox news as we know it and the 1% wouldn't be able to create that alternate reality that so successfully moves the MSM and the entire country right and even obstructs action on the survival of the planet.

        RW radio, not big money, nor some cyclical shift to the right, because it gets a free speech free ride, is why we are in this 20 yr drought of sanity and truth.

        This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

        by certainot on Sun May 26, 2013 at 09:15:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  ps- the swiftboating alone is huge- being able to (3+ / 0-)

        destroy acorn or keep van jones or eliz warren off the admin (simultaneously messaging who IS acceptable).

        think of it this way- it's basically free advertising for the right 24 7 all over the country to an often captive audience, disguised as 'entertainment', on public airwaves on stations licensed to operate in the public interest.

        and consider the spin they put on events- consider that in major emergencies when those very loud stations may be the easiest sources to get.

        This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

        by certainot on Sun May 26, 2013 at 09:28:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You make many valid points (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          certainot, plf515

          I think there have been experiments (e.g. Air American) to challenge the right-wing on the "turf" of radio. They have resulted in failure.

          Broad swaths of the country are hostile to the very idea of government or any type of collective action. Not that they have unanimity, but they do have a clear, consistent plurality.

          The medium of radio does possess a certain magic, drawing its audience in because they have to add the pictures with their imaginations is only the most obvious example. Still, I think most folks who consume right-wing media are beyond needing to be enticed. Sure they use their media to organize, we could do the same--or stick with modern methods, which seem to be our forte.

          Again, much of the populous seems to have decided which side they're on. Those few dear souls stuck, utterly confused, in the middle seem to wander somewhat aimlessly; one election they may be slightly more excited by the enthusiasm of one of the parties, other years they may respond to a candidate or issue presented by the other side. While this group can--and does--determine elections I'm not sure they are particularly avid hate radio listeners.

          It would be interesting to compare the areas which are under-served by more rational media, and to determine the extent to which their radio listening habits determine their political outlook. Maybe there are other reasons they are locked in to a Republican voting pattern. Since most people of all political persuasions tend to find news sources which confirm their biases, wouldn't right-wingers do exactly that--if somehow their gab fests disappeared?

          I think the "news media" are making themselves irrelevant to increasing numbers of "news consumers" as well as voters. In fact, the more they seek to follow the entertainment model the more they may damage themselves.

          I live in the Pacific Northwest, toxic radio is present, sure, but no where near as pervasive as in other parts of the country, because a little slimmer slice of our population buys that crap. Extremists here may be as far "out there" as they are other places--here there are fewer of them, though.

          Maybe I'm prematurely abandoning the medium of radio, I don't know. It just makes sense to me to focus on social media and methods we excel at, rather than fretting about Republican's utilization of a relatively ancient technology.

          Radio, television and print will all be with us for a good while but the future is digital--and it has been for quite a while now.

          I think it would be worthwhile to explore the effectiveness of "old media" with, for example, the efforts of our host/diarist to inform us using means which seem to fit us better.

          It matters not how small the beginning may seem to be: what is once well done is done forever. Henry David Thoreau, in Civil Disobedience

          by Had Enough Right Wing BS on Sun May 26, 2013 at 12:02:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i cant believe it, i spent 20 minutes on a comment (3+ / 0-)

            and kos must have eaten it.

            I think there have been experiments (e.g. Air American) to challenge the right-wing on the "turf" of radio. They have resulted in failure.
            they have a monopoly and protect it well- many cases talked about on dkos of prog radio stations thwarted - they know they can't handle the truth.
            Broad swaths of the country are hostile to the very idea of government or any type of collective action.
            that's talk radio chicken and egg- the think tanks have spent 25 talk radio years putting down govt and 'collectivism' from the radio. that standard schtick for RW radio every day to 50 mil  a week.
            The medium of radio does possess a certain magic, drawing its audience in because they have to add the pictures with their imaginations is only the most obvious example. Still, I think most folks who consume right-wing media are beyond needing to be enticed. Sure they use their media to organize, we could do the same--or stick with modern methods, which seem to be our forte.
            it's ubiquitous and the only free alt for politics while driving or working in most parts of the country- in most of the US there is no competition or real time correction. it bathes the country it shift all to the right and has a lot to say about what is and isn't acceptable in america- generally and when someone needs swiftboating, individually. it's not either/or- we can't ignore their best weapon because we don't like it and have our own. the internet is still somewhat democratic and it will naturally be liberal. but the 1%'s biggest push for internet regulation will come through the radio.
            Again, much of the populous seems to have decided which side they're on. Those few dear souls stuck, utterly confused, in the middle seem to wander somewhat aimlessly; one election they may be slightly more excited by the enthusiasm of one of the parties, other years they may respond to a candidate or issue presented by the other side. While this group can--and does--determine elections I'm not sure they are particularly avid hate radio listeners.
            that's always the case- a spectrum. a lot of them are not particularly interested and informed and come election time may just be waiting for someone more passionate. and for many it may be temporary interest triggered by an particular issue or event- and RW radio dominates that spin in many states.
            It would be interesting to compare the areas which are under-served by more rational media, and to determine the extent to which their radio listening habits determine their political outlook. Maybe there are other reasons they are locked in to a Republican voting pattern.
            unfortunately when pollsters try to do that they never ask that very relevant question- where do you get this ignorance and misinformation? 15-25% of americans say they get their news from talk radio yet the reading and writing crowd who do the polling is amazingly ignorant no to ask that important question once in while. it's  usually about fox.
            Since most people of all political persuasions tend to find news sources which confirm their biases, wouldn't right-wingers do exactly that--if somehow their gab fests disappeared?
            i think there are many people out there who would easily take the sanity and humor and truth of progressive radio (they don't have to lie and they take calls from the opposition) over RW radio if they had a choice- but it's 95% to 5%. no one can tell me 95% of talk radio listeners prefers the wit and wisdom of limbaugh.
            I think the "news media" are making themselves irrelevant to increasing numbers of "news consumers" as well as voters. In fact, the more they seek to follow the entertainment model the more they may damage themselves.
            that's why radio is so important - it can blast the unchallenged repetition it takes to create lies and myths and alternate realities that can be repeated on TV and the floor of congress because its already been pounded into the earholes of 50 mil a week. all the MSM has to do is ignore the important stuff.
            I live in the Pacific Northwest, toxic radio is present, sure, but no where near as pervasive as in other parts of the country, because a little slimmer slice of our population buys that crap. Extremists here may be as far "out there" as they are other places--here there are fewer of them, though.
            but the nuts are still competitive. still obstruct. still get 50% of the seats at the table when it comes to flat earth round earth debates.
            Maybe I'm prematurely abandoning the medium of radio, I don't know. It just makes sense to me to focus on social media and methods we excel at, rather than fretting about Republican's utilization of a relatively ancient technology.
            i am not advocating individuals need to pay attention to radio- people are doing all sorts of good stuff- but the dem party and our major left orgs have never challenged talk radio and that is probably the biggest political mistake in history considering the time lost on global warming and the fact that one blowhard with a big microphone reading chamber of commerce talking points can undo the work of thousands of volunteering activists. that's the sad part.
            Radio, television and print will all be with us for a good while but the future is digital--and it has been for quite a while now.
            as long as the left ignores radio it will continue to short circuit our democratic feedback mechanisms and distort any serous national fact-based discussions. the recent list of talk radio successes includes sequestration, benghazi, gun control, IRS, immigration- and it will continue. very little has improved since it cleared the way for clarence thomas and made single payer unacceptable. if anything the rush boycott may be the best use of new media activism since it hits the point man for this whole disaster in democracy. and the loudest salesmen for internet regulation, like corporate and media deregulation, are on the radio.

            This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

            by certainot on Sun May 26, 2013 at 08:42:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You are very informed on this topic! (0+ / 0-)

              I am "following" you on DKos specifically to reevaluate how important talk radio is. Maybe I've been too dismissive.

              I thank you for sharing so much information already.

              I also thank plf515, our host, for letting us veer quite a ways from the topic of the diary.

                                         Bill

              It matters not how small the beginning may seem to be: what is once well done is done forever. Henry David Thoreau, in Civil Disobedience

              by Had Enough Right Wing BS on Mon May 27, 2013 at 07:23:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Plus some people are paid (5+ / 0-)

        by right-wing outfits to call progressive talk shows with pre-packaged talking points.

        liberal bias = failure to validate or sufficiently flatter the conservative narrative on any given subject

        by RockyMtnLib on Sun May 26, 2013 at 11:18:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  is jose hernandez thinking about challenging (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Eric Nelson

    denham again? i thought he was a good candidate with a fantastic personal narrative, he just needed more money and a better ground operation.

    •  Well, what I posted is what I've managed to find (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eric Nelson

      with a few hours of Googling around.

      Others here may know better.

    •  He says maybe (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, plf515

      There is a post on SFGate about this. He says he is very happy in his job as an engineering/space consultant. More time with the five kids and extended family. Says he is still contemplating the same race in 2014.

      My additional comment about him is that he should run somewhere else if he runs. He may have had childhood ties to this district, but it really isn't a good fit.

      I believe that Michael Eggman is the best person. He already has alot of support since announcing about six weeks ago. Check him out. There is a lot of info about him online.

      Please consider a donation to Oxfam

      by brunoboy on Mon May 27, 2013 at 02:00:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  his website just has a simple bio (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515

        nothing about actual positions on things. he's got a great name, i'll give him that.

        •  A little more on Michael Eggman (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wu ming, plf515

          He's a family farmer and wants to talk about agriculture policy. He's against agri-business. Points out that Denham is/was not a farmer, but a businessman who made a fortune selling plastic supplies for agricultural use. (Denham is on Ag. Committee and has voted recently for the Farm bill that takes so much money from SNAP/old food stamps).

          He's going to run on infrastructure issues. Better roads and fill the potholes, but more developed stuff like the high-speed rail. Denham is against it. He's already become a sub-committee chair in the House Transportation & Infrastructure Comm. Denham holding a show-hearing next week against the high-speed rail plan and its funding.

          His sister was elected to the assembly last year from the Stockton district (13). She's one of the many out LGBT members of the CA Assembly.

          Their mother is/was an immigrant from Mexico. I'm sure he will campaign on Immigration reform.

          Please consider a donation to Oxfam

          by brunoboy on Mon May 27, 2013 at 07:23:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I don't get why (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, unfangus

    Morgan Carroll is even being mentioned in the Romanoff-Coffman race - either here or in the diary you linked.

    Morgan is great [and, like Romanoff, she would be great at anything], but she made it clear shortly after Romanoff announced  that she wasn't going to challenge Romanoff.

    Can you include more info about Romanoff in future diaries about CO6?  You have all this info about Coffman and nothing about Romanoff.

    The banks have a stranglehold on the political process. Mike Whitney

    by dfarrah on Sun May 26, 2013 at 09:34:16 AM PDT

  •  bring it on (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    Who is mighty ? One who turns an enemy into a friend !

    by OMwordTHRUdaFOG on Sun May 26, 2013 at 06:05:36 PM PDT

  •  Excellent diary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    Really helps to understand where we should marshal our resources, and where we need to badger potential candidates into running.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun May 26, 2013 at 11:36:54 PM PDT

  •  I like very much the diaries (0+ / 0-)

    Im missing NY-19, NJ-02, PA-08 and WA-08. I think in the 50 better districts is where the Democratic Party can find the 17 necessary districts for a new majority.

  •  CA-39 Dem was Jay Chen not Joyce Chen.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    This is a great post, but I just wanted to point you to one name correction. Ed Royce's opponent in 2012 in CA-39 was Jay Chen, not "Joyce" Chen.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site