UPDATE 20 1220AMCT: I figure I should put up one more update since this was still at the top of the rec list as of early Saturday morning.
Severe storms are still ongoing from Oklahoma to Illinois, but the tornado threat is waning as storms form into lines. The severe weather threat will transition to damaging straight-line winds and large hail as the early morning hours progress. A few tornadoes are possible if the leading edge of some of the lines of storms forms a kink and starts to rotate.
All in all, this was a pretty bad day. It could have been worse -- much worse -- but given that there are at least 5 people dead and lots of damage, it warranted the forceful warnings the NWS issued.
UPDATE 19 906PM CT: News9 reports 5 fatalities due to the tornadoes, all in vehicles.
UPDATE 18 903PM CT: Interview with an Oklahoma State Trooper on News9: "Girl, I can't even begin to tell you where the worst damage is right now."
UPDATE 17 842PM CT:
UPDATE 16 830PM CT: The big yellow box is a severe thunderstorm warning, in effect for the risk of 80 MPH winds and hail larger than golfballs.
An 87 MPH wind gust was reported at Tinker AFB (southeast of OKC) at 815PM CT.
The death toll is up to 4 people, including a small child, from this evening's tornadoes.
Gary England made a good point just now on News9, saying that the tornado risk will likely tick up as nighttime sets in. The low-level jet (strong winds a mile or two above the surface) tends to increase during the nighttime hours, and the tornado threat will increase with it. Tornadoes during the day are dangerous, but they're even more dangerous at night because you can't see them and people start tuning out to go to bed. Go to sleep with a weather radio ready to alert you to warnings if you live in the area.
UPDATE 15 813PM CT: Major power flashes in Norman OK indicating a tornado on the ground or extremely strong straight-line winds. Either way, damage is occurring.
UPDATE 14 804PM CT: Tornado warnings up for Moore and Norman. NWS says "any tornado would be small and intermittent," but even a small brief tornado is dangerous.
Tornado warning is also up for St. Louis, prompting the NWS office at the STL Airport to evacuate to their shelter.
Tornado warning just west of Joplin.
Tornado warning just west of Tulsa OK.
Too many radar images to post. Nothing really looks impressive enough for the untrained eye to spot. If you're under a tornado warning, take it seriously. Even a small tornado is a big deal if it hits your house.
UPDATE 13 755PM CT: Cone tornado near Moore heading towards Norman OK. Several people are dead from tornadoes earlier, including a small child. This is serious.
UPDATE 12 748PM CT: The supercell over the Oklahoma City Metro is starting to get disorganized. The tail end of the storm southwest of El Reno is the most organized, and looks like it's going to produce a strong tornado imminently. The rotations near OKC are mixing out, but still exist with damage reported. Any tornado warnings need to be taken seriously.
Power is out on the east side of Moore and rotation went directly over Moore City Hall.
As I said, this was and is a nightmare scenario -- strong tornadoes in a major metro area. If you don't like my saying that, tough noogies.
UPDATE 11 725PM CT: Tornado on the ground doing damage in southern Oklahoma City. Looks like there's going to be another tornado developing near Valley Brook moving into said location, Del City, Midwest City, and a surrounding areas.
This is between downtown Oklahoma City and Moore. News9 says this is the "worst case scenario." Major power flashes in the tornado.
UPDATE 10 715PM CT: Tornado in southwest Oklahoma City is about to cross I-35 which is a "parking lot" with people trying to evacuate to the south. Southern Oklahoma City and northern Moore need to take cover now. This tornado is rainwrapped so you CANNOT SEE IT. It's doing widespread damage with debris in the air and transformer flashes.
This is a nightmare.
UPDATE 9 700PM CT: TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR OKLAHOMA CITY AND IMMEDIATE AREA. CONFIRMED TORNADO BY SPOTTERS. THIS SUPERCELL HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VIOLENT TORNADOES.
OKLAHOMA CITY AIRPORT, DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY, NORTH MOORE ARE UNDER THIS TORNADO EMERGENCY.
UPDATE 8 652PM CT: The storm has cycled and a new rotation is developing. A tornado is likely to develop near the green triangle (indicating the rotation) and this will bring it directly into the Oklahoma City metro area. It's unclear if it'll move into Oklahoma City or Moore, but hundreds of thousands of people are at risk no matter which way it moves. This is a TORNADO EMERGENCY.
UPDATE 7 640PM CT: KFOR reports 1000 people at Will Rogers World Airport (OKC Airport) have been evacuated into an underground tunnel in anticipation of the tornado.
UPDATE 6 636PM CT: The debris cloud from this tornado is 4 miles wide east-west, and 2.5 miles wide north-south.
UPDATE 5 630PM CT: The Weather Channel storm chasers were directly hit by the tornado and their cars were flipped off the road. Mike Bettes is injured and the crew were involved in a car accident (vehicle rolled in the tornado). They were thrown 200 yards into a field, airbags deployed, car a total loss.
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR YUKON, RICHLAND, WILEY POST AIRPORT, BETHANY, AND THE VILLIAGE. TORNADO IS OVER A MILE WIDE.
UPDATE 4 623PM CT: This tornado is HUGE and it's now on a path directly towards Oklahoma City.
UPDATE 3 620PM CT: WESTERN OKC SUBURBS, OKLAHOMA CITY, AND MOORE OKLAHOMA NEED TO BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION. THIS IS A MILE-AND-A-HALF WIDE TORNADO MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARDS OKC/MOORE. This is a goddamn nightmare.
UPDATE 2 612PM CT: Mile-wide wedge tornado moving towards Oklahoma City/Moore and western OKC suburbs. This is a DANGEROUS TORNADO confirmed to be over a mile-wide by spotters.
UPDATE 1 540PM CT: Tornado warned supercell has very strong rotation moving into El Reno OK. This storm, if it stays on its current trajectory, will move into northern Oklahoma County over the next hour. This is the best chance for tornadic development right now in the OKC area.
This diary will be updated as a liveblog as conditions warrant.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) Tornado Watch for much of Oklahoma -- including Oklahoma City and Tulsa -- in anticipation of a violent severe weather outbreak yet again this afternoon.
The risks include:
- Violent tornadoes
- Softball sized hail
- Damaging winds in excess of 80 MPH
The SPC very rarely issues a PDS Tornado Watch, so this conveys the severity of the situation. All the parameters meteorologists use to measure the violent potential of the atmosphere all point to the fact that a violent tornado outbreak is imminent.
From the SPC:
DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
Also from the SPC are the probabilities of severe weather, which are also extremely high. Experts are confident that this will be a violent outbreak. If you live in or around the watch area, take immediate action to ensure that you're prepared if severe weather threatens your location.
GET A WEATHER RADIO
National Weather Service Main Page
National Weather Service -- Central Oklahoma
National Weather Service -- Tulsa OK
National Weather Service -- Springfield MO
National Weather Service -- St. Louis MO
National Weather Service -- Kansas City MO
National Weather Service -- Arkansas (whole state)
Storm Prediction Center Main Page
Storm Prediction Center -- Current Severe Weather Watches
Storm Prediction Center -- Convective (Severe Weather) Outlooks
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Discussions
Storm Prediction Center -- Storm Reports
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Analysis Pages
Wunderground's Detailed Radar (click the + nearest to you to see your local radar)
NOAA Weather Models
TwisterData.com's excellent GFS/NAM/RAP model website.
ChaserTV-- live streaming video from storm chasers.
News9 in Oklahoma City provides extremely thorough severe weather coverage. This is Gary England's station -- the pioneers of on-screen weather warnings and chasing tornadoes with helicopters. Their efforts, along with those of storm chasers, have saved thousands of lives.
I'll continuously post updates to my Facebook page on this and most other major severe weather outbreaks.