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(This is cross-posted from own personal blog)

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I have made continuous updates to our Taking Back The House series and I have created a master database of all the races we have highlighted and links to all the prospective Democratic candidates.  We continue to edit it as news on races emerge and we hope you follow it.  For the master list, please click here.

As always, I believe in social media and by following some of these candidates, we can create more exposure for them.  

Welcome back to another edition of Taking Back The House.  For this latest edition, we go back to California (where we have gone twice already) for another seat that Democrats will aim to turn blue in 2014.  Remember, as we get deeper into the series; the harder it will be.  That is not to say it will be impossible but keep in mind THIS IS a midterm and midterms are notorious for either being a letdown for the party that occupies the Presidency OR one that’s hard to flip seats period.

Of course, I’m not saying that the Democrats won’t flip any seats; in fact I think they should at least get three (Gary Miller, Mike Coffman and Steve Southerland’s seats are the ones I believe will be flipped blue with Rodney Davis and Chris Gibson’s very possible) but anything can happen in politics.  Still, this is mostly a reference of winnable seats whether its in 2014 or 2016.

With that being said, let’s take a look at Rep. Jeff Denham of California’s 10th congressional district.

Jeff Denham has been in Congress since, you guessed it, the Republican wave year of 2010.  Redistricting forced him from the 19th congressional district, in which he succeeded the retiring George Radanovich in 2010, to the 10th in which he defeated NASA astronaut Jose Hernandez in 2012.

Before being elected to the House, Denham served in the California State Senate and was actually the subject of a recall effort that was overwhelmingly rejected by voters.

Even though he has a track record of one full term (and in the midst of a second one), let’s take a look at Denham.

Legislation & Notable Votes:

-Voted yes on banning federal health coverage that includes abortion
-Voted yes on Path to Prosperity
-Voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act

Headlines:

-Had a recall attempt that failed
-Received a dishonorable mention from CREW as one of Congress’s most corrupt politicians

Electoral History:

2010:  Jeff Denham (R): 64.6%, Loraine Goodwin (D): 35.1%
2012:  Denham (R): 52.7%, Jose Hernandez (D): 47.3%

PVI:
R+1

Potential Prospects:

Well it appears that the DCCC has settled on Michael Eggman, a beekeeper and farmer from the area, and don’t let his occupation fool you or diminish his possible candidacy.  Eggman is the brother of Assemblywoman Susan Eggman, and may not be the worst candidate in this district.

Jose Hernandez might toss his hat into the ring again, but I would imagine he would stay clear until 2016.  Nonetheless while he does have an amazing back story, one that would be incredibly unique to Congress, he didn’t do the best job campaigning it appears.  With the DCCC in support of Eggman; it might be best for Hernandez to stay home.

Why We Can Do This:

Well, Denham is still a new incumbent in a slightly Republican area.  Since it’s a midterm, he will have the advantage but keep in mind that Denham has stated his intention to run for Lieutenant Governor of California.  Running two campaigns aren’t the easiest thing, so that is something you should keep in mind as well.

Eggman might be connected better to the area too than Denham seeing as how he has apparently lived in the area his whole life.  Never underestimate what local roots can do for someone.

Links You Oughta Check Out:

Official Michael Eggman for Congress campaign website
Michael Eggman’s Facebook
Michael Eggman’s Twitter

DONATE TO MICHAEL EGGMAN’S CAMPAIGN

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com My new Twitter: @RushHolt4Senate

    by RVKU on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 02:26:21 PM PDT

  •  Eggman sounds like (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RVKU

    one of those candidates that seem silly, but end up being unexpectedly strong. Hopefully he can beat Denham. What are the demographics in the district?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 02:38:56 PM PDT

    •  That's what I feel re: Eggman (0+ / 0-)

      On demographics, here's the vote from 2012:

      Asian-7.7%
      Black-3.7%
      Latino-40.1%
      Other-2.2%
      White-46.4%

      Registration:  Dem: 40.6%, GOP-38.5%, No party-the rest.

      I'm sure someone like wwmiv could bring in better numbers though.

      http://graphics.latimes.com/...

      My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com My new Twitter: @RushHolt4Senate

      by RVKU on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 02:49:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The latest voter reg report (Feb 2013) (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, wwmiv

        shows 39.70% Dem, 38.45% GOP, 16.95% NPP.

        Given that a sizable slice of the Democratic registration consists of valleycrats (conservadems in the Central Valley), abysmal Latino turnout, and Eggman's relative anonymity (his sister represents Stockton, not Modesto), I would start out CA-10 at likely R.

        Yes, I know there's immigration reform, demographic change, and same-day voter registration, but I don't see 2014 as a great cycle to flip this seat.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 03:42:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  same day registration (0+ / 0-)

          Same day voter registration is not a done deal yet for 2014, it is still [to my knowledge at least] poking its way thru the legislature.

          And even when it does take effect, I think you have to go the the voter registration central office to do it, not the pricenct.

          •  It's a done deal (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wu ming, wwmiv, James Allen

            It's being implemented alongside a statewide voter registration database, which will happen at 2014 at the earliest or possibly 2015.

            You're right about the having to register at the voter registrar's office (and several others), but you can also vote at these offices.

            23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

            by kurykh on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 10:49:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

        I do not have any particular insight into this race other than classifying Eggman as a candidate that we should be cautiously optimistic about. He could very well turn out to be far superior to Hernandez, but he could also turn out to be a horrible candidate that falls flat on his bum.

        But there are also reasons to be optimistic even if he turns out to be somewhere in the middle:

        1. Possible same day voter registration (as noted it may not be ready by then).
        2. Statewide voter registration database (this streamlines campaigns, making things much easier for targeting).
        3. Immigration reform (this district is one where immigration reform will make a bigger difference than nationwide).
        4. Mail-in voting (eliminates high cost of participation).
        5. Further demographic change.

        Additionally, the district is R+1, but shifted from R+5 (most of that shift caused not by Obama improving relatively from 2008 to 2012 (R+2 to R+0) even despite him improving absolutely election over election (51.43 to 51.85), but by 2012 replacing Bush's approximately R+8/9.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 08:45:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats had the wrong candidate last time (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RVKU, Gygaxian

    Hernandez's profile good overall, but I think a candidate with more rural background is the type that is needed to win a district like this. Even if Eggman doesn't win in 2014, he could be well positioned to run again in 2016 and win. Plus, it's probably a good sign that the NRCC has already made a lame blog attack on him http://www.nrcc.org/...

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 07:58:40 PM PDT

  •  Wow, I knew they were hacks (0+ / 0-)

    (and that that's their job), but they really are shameless hacks, aren't they?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 10:45:54 PM PDT

  •  the whole valley's a battleground (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, James Allen

    and trending our way. same day registration will kick in in 2014, and online registration will stay in place. the demographic shifts are inexorable. voter reg trends continue to shift towards D and DTS.

    what is left to to is to organize and GOTV like crazy, and make sure whoever challenges denham has adequate funds. ditto for challengers to valadao, miller, etc.

    it'll happen eventually, but it sure would be nice to pick up a couple seats in 2014.

    •  additionally (0+ / 0-)

      denham is starting to take a lot of heat from valley papers over fighting to block construction of the CA HSR line - whose initial segment will be built in his district - and send the funds to the northeastern rail corridor instead.

      given the dire need for infrastructure, jobs, and pollution reduction in the san joaquin valley, denham's intransience is nuts, and he deserves to be pilloried for it.

      best hopes for eggman or hernandez making hay with this.

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