This is an update of my first diary here, which appeared in the Star-Tribune in 1994, just as Newt Gingerich's "Contract With America" crowd was poised to sweep into office. It's just as relevant today -- especially with a more pessimistic view currently atop the rec list.
Sometime around the year 1030, King Cnut of England and Denmark set his throne on the beach at low water, and by royal decree commanded that the tide must not rise. The tide rose, and King Cnut got wet. This was an act of humility by the king, who intended to demonstrate that there were forces in the universe greater than himself.
In 1994, another guy named Newt, this one from Georgia, went to the steps of the U.S. Capitol and commanded that the tide of liberalism must not rise. Perhaps this Newt has not studied enough history.
If history teaches us anything about politics, it is this: Given enough time, liberals always win. The United States was forged in liberalism, and has become more liberal with each succeeding generation. This leftward movement has seldom been smooth, seldom been consistent, but it has been unstoppable.
America at the time of the revolution was divided into three roughly equal political camps: Patriots, who favored independence from Britain; Tories, who favored staying with Britain; and those who didn’t much care one way or another. If you ask an American schoolchild what a Tory is, this is the definition you are likely to get. But if you ask a native of Vancouver or London, he will tell you that a Tory is a Conservative: a member of the Conservative Party. This simple fact of history is too often ignored in American schools: the American Revolution was a revolution of liberals, and was opposed by conservatives. The liberals won in 1781, the conservative Tories fled to Canada or the Caribbean.
America in the 1850’s was divided into two roughly equal camps: those who favored the abolition of slavery, and those who favored its continuation. It can be argued that abolitionists were radicals, not true liberals, since they favored a fundamental restructuring of society; but there is no doubt that the abolitionist movement, and the Republican Party that championed it, was firmly to the left of center. (Both political parties have at various times embraced and rejected liberalism. Remember when there were liberal Republicans?) The liberals won in 1865, and the conservatives went underground.
At the turn of the century, liberals favored suffrage for women; conservatives opposed it. The liberals won in 1920. During the Great Depression, liberals favored a system of Social Security; conservatives opposed it. The liberals won in 1938. In the 1950’s, liberals favored voting rights for African-Americans; conservatives opposed it. The liberals won in 1964.
It may seem that liberalism has been declining since the ‘60s, that the country is becoming more conservative. There is some truth to this, but much of this belief is an illusion created by too narrow a historical perspective. Every conservative today supports the liberal cause of 1781. Every conservative today supports the liberal cause of 1865. Every conservative today supports women’s suffrage. Almost every conservative today supports social security. And even Jesse Helms supports voting rights for African-Americans, 30 years after he opposed it. So there will come a time – probably in less than 100 years – when every conservative American will support equal rights for gays. If you think someone like Ann Wynia is too liberal, consider this: she is a conservative who is ahead of her time.
[Update 2013: I modestly point out that I'm looking like a genius on gay rights at this moment in history; and Ann Wynia was a failed US Senate candidate in 1994.]
Once recognized, the reason for the liberals’ inevitable victory is clear. Liberals, by definition, support changes which increase human rights. Conservatives, by definition, favor the status quo. But society cannot resist change, and the change must come at the expense of the status quo. Thus conservatives are always behind the curve, because the curve is a moving target. Every battle won by conservatives is refought at a later time, with different players and a different outcome. But every battle won by liberals eventually co-opts the conservatives, who then draw a new line in the sand a little farther to the left.
Now it seems that liberalism in American has waned, that conservatives are destined to sweep the national elections. At this low ebb, Newt Gingerich sets his Contract With America on the beach and commands that the tide of liberalism shall not rise. But sooner or later, with this wave or the next, he too will be humbled by forces greater than himself. America, be prepared to move to the high ground.