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Leading Off:

SC-Gov: Hrm. I wonder what her angle is here. First-term Republican Gov. Nikki Haley is suddenly sounding gun-shy about seeking re-election, telling a local paper she "could absolutely see" foregoing a re-election bid if "it's too much on the family." Haley had previously taken steps toward running again, and given her youth and rising star status within the GOP, it would be pretty surprising if she just called it quits in the middle of everything.

But while Republicans have enjoyed promoting her, especially given her background as an Indian-American woman, Haley actually has been fairly unpopular at home, according to polls. She's often been locked in ugly fights with the legislature and has occasionally been nagged by ethical issues. What's more, she's facing a rematch with state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, whom she only beat by 4 percent in the 2010 wave (and in a very red state, no less). Democrats have a good shot at a pickup opportunity with her in the race; against a generic Republican, things would become a lot tougher. So perhaps she fears a possible loss to Sheheen, though Democrats have to hope she runs again.

Senate:

CO-Sen: Based on unnamed sources, local news site ColoradoPols reports that Republican operatives are trying to recruit former state House Majority Leader Amy Stephens into next year's Senate race. The Colorado GOP has, so far, found no one willing to take on Dem Sen. Mark Udall.

IA-Sen: Even though Sen. Chuck Grassley formally promised to remain neutral in the Republican primary for Iowa's other Senate seat, he's hosting two fundraisers this month for his former chief of staff, David Young, who is seeking his party's nomination. As an odd sort of fig leaf, though, Grassley's also doing an event for former U.S Attorney Matt Whitaker in July. However, a former state GOP official claims that Grassley's entire operation is in fact backing Young, so not really sure why the kabuki is necessary.

MA-Sen: It looks like we have three final polls of Tuesday's Senate special election, and while they show very different spreads, they all continue to agree that Democrat Ed Markey is the clear favorite over Republican Gabriel Gomez:

Suffolk University: 52-42 (June 9: 48-41)

New England College: 56-36 (June 2: 52-40)

Western New England University: 49-41 (April 18: 51-36)

To the extent that their trendlines have gone in the opposite direction, WNEU dissents a bit, but their prior poll is much older than NEC's or Suffolk's. (And as fenway49 reminds us, there were some serious issues with that earlier WNEU survey, not least the fact that it was in the field in the immediate aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombings.) But no matter what, someone is going to be wrong, since Markey can't simultaneously win by 10 points and 20 points. Tune in Tuesday night to find out who gets to wear the egg.

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, the lone Republican elected to statewide office during the Democratic sweep of 2011, says he's "looking at" a potential bid for governor in 2015, but unsurprisingly says it's too early to announce any plans.

MA-Gov: Not that it was ever up for discussion, given his vehement reaction to the idea, but ex-Rep. Barney Frank just made it emphatically clear that there's no way he's going to run in the Democratic primary for governor next year. In shooting down the notion, Frank also touched on an issue that I'll bet his senior colleagues would rather he avoid, but which really does not get discussed enough:

"The next gubernatorial term I would be 74 years old. I was very sorry [New Jersey Sen.] Frank Lautenberg died but I wished he hadn't run. I feel fine now. But I couldn't guarantee anybody at the age of 74, in 10 months, that I was going to be totally healthy and fully vigorous for four more years. I think it is irresponsible."
I'm not sure that any nation is well served if it turns into a gerontocracy.

MN-Gov: As expected, former state House Speaker Kurt Zellers officially entered the race for governor over the weekend. He joins two other Republicans, businessman Scott Honour and Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, though the field is expected to grow further.

NE-Gov: Democratic state Sen. Steve Lathrop, who has been considering the open seat governor's race for some time, says he expects to make a decision by mid-July.

House:

AZ-09: When a Roll Call report earlier this year claimed that ex-Rep. Ben Quayle was the GOP's top choice to take on freshman Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in AZ-09, we goggled and fantasized about what such a matchup might look like in the flesh. But alas, it's not to be. Junior Quayle has decided against taking another bite at the potatoe, at least this cycle. Quayle is taking a job as a lobbyist at the firm of Clark Hill, but have hope, Brock Landers fans: He says he's not ruling out a return in the future.

PA-13: Ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies just scored a major get in her unlikely comeback bid after a 20-year absence from Congress. Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House after Nancy Pelosi, just endorsed MM in the primary. Hoyer doesn't provide boots on the ground like a union can, or offer high-profile validation the way an esteemed local leader might, but he is an excellent fundraiser who can open a lot of doors, and he has a reputation for never forgetting his friends.

Other Races:

CO Recall: Somewhat unexpectedly, the Colorado Secretary of State's office has certified a recall election against Democratic state Sen. Angelo Giron after finding that organizers submitted a sufficient number of valid signatures. Recall supporters needed approximately 11,300 and had only submitted around 13,400; 12,648 wound up passing muster. Organizers of a separate recall targeting state Senate President John Morse had almost 40 percent of their petitions invalidated, so evidently, the folks behind the anti-Giron effort did a much better job collecting signatures.

Giron is likely to file a contest with the SoS, though, much as Morse is doing, and could wind up halting the recall in its tracks. Fortunately, Giron's district (based in Pueblo) is also even bluer than Morse's, so if the process does move forward, she'd stand a good chance of turning aside this attempt to unseat her.

CO-Treas: Here's an unexpected item from the "Where Are They Now?" beat: Former one-term Rep. Betsy Markey just announced a challenge to Republican state Treasurer Walker Stapleton in 2014. She'll face Broomfield Mayor Pat Quinn, who also got into the contest on Monday, in a primary. You may recall that Markey defeated virulently anti-gay GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, who still hasn't conceded the race, in Colorado's conservative 4th District in 2008.

Two years later, in another wave election, Markey was herself swept out by Republican Cory Gardner, though unlike many other vulnerable members, she had the courage to vote for the Affordable Care Act. Given the year, she likely would have lost under any set of circumstances, but now she has a shot at redemption.

Special Elections: Amazingly, there is no special election on Tuesday for the New Hampshire House of Representatives. There is one, though, in Kentucky HD-56 (PDF), a seat centered on the Bluegrass Region near Lexington and left open by Democrat Carl Rollins. The candidates are Democrat James Kay II, a well-connected local lawyer (who seems to have provided his high school yearbook picture to the Lexington Herald-Leader), Republican financier Lyen Crews, and independent candidate John-Mark Hack, a onetime aide to former Democratic Gov. Paul Patton.

The district has Democratic roots, but is also part of KY-06, which booted Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler last November; SouthernINDem offers a much more thorough examination of the race's dynamics. (Note that the election is being held under the old district lines passed over a decade ago; the legislature still hasn't come up with new maps after an effort last year was tossed by the courts.) Democrats currently control the Kentucky House by a 54-45 margin. (jeffmd)

Grab Bag:

Georgia/Utah: Following up on a pair of stories in the previous Daily Digest, Georgia Republicans have opted not to pursue switching to a party convention from a traditional primary, while Utah Democrats have done the opposite, choosing to stick with their hybrid nominating format that relies chiefly on a convention, rather than switching over entirely to a primary. In Georgia, such a move would have likely led to the party tapping E.W. Jackson-esque candidates, so the state GOP was wise to eschew the idea.

By contrast, in Utah, the convention system nearly derailed conservative Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in 2010, forcing him into a primary with a liberal activist, Claudia Wright. Democrats didn't speak openly about wanting to protect Matheson, but reformers quite rightly point out that conventions act as elitist barriers to participation, in that they prevent working folks who can't take the time off to attend a caucus from making their voices heard. (Georgia Republicans opposed to conventions made similar points.) For now, though, the status quo prevails.

Maps: Here's a topic that hits the sweet spot for the Daily Kos Elections particular flavor of nerddom: a series of major American metro areas transformed into Risk maps (yes, the world conquest board game). However, real Risk aficionados might complain that, perhaps with the exception of the New York City battleground, these maps are a little short on the strange shapes and dubious water crossings that make Risk what it is (a game about strategic control of choke points). In any event, these maps are being developed as actual games by a company called Havoc Boards. (David Jarman)

Netroots Nation: In case you weren't able to attend the Daily Kos Elections team's horserace Q&A panel at Netroots Nation on Saturday, you can watch a video recap here. The gang—David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Kaili Joy Gray, and Jeffmd, with David Nir as moderator—took questions about races all across the country for over an hour, from audience members and via Twitter. Lots of great stuff (and several hilarious moments) at the link.

Pennsylvania: Looking for an unusual way of quantifying just how effective the GOP's gerrymander of Pennsylvania after 2010 was? The University of Minnesota's Smart Politics blog examined the historical composition of Pennyslvania's House delegation and found the percentage of the delegation controlled by the party that won the corresponding presidential election is at an all-time low. As a general indication of Pennsylvania's swinginess, the majority control of the House delegation in the state has usually correlated with which party won the presidential election.

But in 2012, Democrats won the state at the presidential level but only five of 18 House seats (27.8 percent). The only worse performance was in 1912, but that comes with a big asterisk: Teddy Roosevelt, as a Bull Moose, won the state but only two of the state's 36 representatives were Progressives. At least we aren't a 1924-type scenario, where the Republicans not only won the presidential race in the Keystone State, but also all 36 of the state's 36 House seats. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  MA-Sen prediction (7+ / 0-)

    It's my opinion that the polls right now are actually overstating how well Gomez is going to do (which is pretty damn sad to begin with). Turn out is going to favor Markey, which is going to help pad his margin, meaning that the 10-12 point leads that the polls are showing is going to expand to a solid 18 point victory:

    Markey beats Gomez 59-41.

    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

    by NMLib on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 05:16:52 AM PDT

  •  Gomez will be happy if he gets 45% (5+ / 0-)

    I don't think any legitimate poll has had Gomez over 41%. I say 56-44 Markey. Lots of people will stay home since the result is a forgone conclusion.
    Speaking of age Markey may not be a lifer in the senate he is 67 I think so assuming he gets a full term he will be pushing his mid 70's re-election time, I guess he can get 2 terms maximum,I think people are getting leery of electing senators over 80.

  •  Gomez is all finished. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brae70, Vatexia, stevenaxelrod

    Markey is the winner.

    Mayan Word For 'Apocalypse' Actually Translates More Accurately As "Time Of Pale Obese Gun Monsters."......the Onion

    by lyvwyr101 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 05:48:27 AM PDT

    •  In addition to being an inexperienced campaigner, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vatexia, Stude Dude, lyvwyr101

      Gomez is seen around here as an enabler of the one percent, and he can't overcome that. This is the kiss of death among Blue Dogs, so you can stick a fork in the fat lady. His goose is toast.

      "We must all hang together or most assuredly we shall all hang seperately." - Benjamin Franklin

      by brae70 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:19:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not just inexperienced. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lyvwyr101

        He's a dork.

        Prediction: 54-46 Markey, and that's only because I'm being cautious.

        The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

        by raboof on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:44:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I kind of agree with you, but I was just trying (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          raboof, stevenaxelrod

          to avoid name-calling. I'm calling it 57-43 Markey. Low turnout will affect both sides about equally, with Gomez maybe getting a small ethnic premium.

          A lot of Obama-Brown voters flip to Markey.

          "We must all hang together or most assuredly we shall all hang seperately." - Benjamin Franklin

          by brae70 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:43:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Steny may know MM (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vatexia, stevenaxelrod

    She did the news on channel 4 in DC for quite a few years in the late 70's early 80's. Most likely Steny knows her from her news days and may have a relationship with her plus being the mother in law of Chelsea doesn't hurt.

  •  SC going to the democrats (0+ / 0-)

    This is great news, if she does run, I am sure we can find so e type of dirt on her to bur her slim chances, if not fabrication always has a chance too.  Bye bye GOP the white boy party is quickly dying.  

  •  MD-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    The Maryland Municipal League conference is this week in Ocean City and all the gubernatorial hopefuls are gladhanding local pols to get support.

    David Craig is hosting a cocktail hour & Blaine Young is having a night out at Seacrets (sort of an Ocean City version of Margaritaville)

    Anthony Brown is standing in for O'Malley while he's in Ireland at a reception for local leaders and Heather Mizeur is volunteering at a food pantry.

  •  The Georgia GOP is going to pick weirdos (0+ / 0-)

    regardless of the method they use to pick them.

    There is not one human problem which could not be solved if people would simply do as I advise. - Gore Vidal

    by southdem on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:31:28 AM PDT

  •  Frank is full of crap. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    Voters can make that decision.  If they are willing to take that chance, where does Frank get off playing high and mighty?

    It's completely reasonable to decide that, at 74, he'd rather be doing something else. That's his right and nobody would think worse of him for it.

    But pawning it off as a service to poor dumb voters?
    Reprehensible.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:32:30 AM PDT

    •  Then again, there's something unsettling about (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, newdem1960, raboof

      having to wheel congress people in for votes when they are impaired and should be on chemo IV's or medicated to the point of confusion.  Those six year Senate terms are a leap of faith.  And hope.  

      Building a better America with activism, cooperation, ingenuity and snacks.

      by judyms9 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:41:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unsettling or not, they can only do that if their (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod

        constituents vote them in.  Those votes must be read as "I'd rather have XXX, age, infirmities, risk of death, and all than YYY"

        If YYY can't unseat an old and infirm XXX, then YYY doesn't deserve the seat.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:23:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  wheeling people in for votes has nothing to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod

        do with age...it has to do with health. There have been examples of people being "wheeled" into Congress to vote in the past few years who weren't that old.

        The bottom line to me: age has nothing to do with it whatsoever (and never should, in my opinion).

        Whether someone is in good health at the time of their election might be relevant to me (depending on exactly how poor their health might be).

        There sure does seem to be a lot of age discrimination in this country lately.

        •  Excellent, definitive comment. (0+ / 0-)

          Just as no one wants a gerontocracy, no one wants discrimination on the basis of age or disability. Jerry Brown (75) has saved the state of California (at least I think so). Bernie Sanders (71), Barbara Boxer (72), Ed Markey (66), Barbara Mikulski (76), John Lewis (73), Rosa De Lauro (70), and Joe Biden (70) are all better-than-average public servants. We're lucky to have them in the mix. Barney Frank should have run, unless he didn't want to, which must be the case.

  •  Don't give up, Nikki! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    You can do it ... think of all the women in SC who look up to you, all the Indian-Americans too!

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:42:44 AM PDT

  •  Not that unusual (0+ / 0-)
    ... it would be pretty surprising if she just called it quits in the middle of everything.
    What, pull a Palin and cash in at Fox et al.?—unheard of!  These GOPer self-immolating plummeting bits of rocky detritus shooting stars are classic bullies: when people stand up to them they skedaddle.


    My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.—Carl Schurz
    "Shared sacrifice!" said the spider to the fly.—Me

    by KingBolete on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:51:35 AM PDT

  •  SCOTUS just rules that Voting Rights Act Sec 4 (0+ / 0-)

    is unconstitutional... Chief Justice Roberts is the author of the ruling.

    Bad news for civil rights in this country.

    “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

    by ivorybill on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:12:58 AM PDT

    •  More (0+ / 0-)

      from SCOTUSblog:

      The Court makes clear that: "Our decision in no way affects the permanent, nationwide ban on racial discrimination in voting found in [Section] 2. We issue no holding on [Section] 5 itself, only on the coverage formula. Congress may draft another formula based on current conditions"

      “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

      by ivorybill on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:14:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Don't know her angle, but... (0+ / 0-)

    Sometimes I think this kind of talk from incumbents only is a device to dissuade voters from the (understandable) notion that the politician is ambitious and even power-mad. When he was facing recall, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said something similar, mentioning that his wife would prefer that he go to work in the private sector for big bucks. It's aw-shucks Bushie jive talk.

  •  I want Halley to run (0+ / 0-)

    Because I want Dems to take that seat

    “The Republicans believe in the minimum wage — the more the minimum, the better.”-Harry S Truman

    by Generic Democrat on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:27:44 AM PDT

  •  PA-13 - not sure why MM wants the "insider" (0+ / 0-)

    tag.  Generally voters do not like what is going on in DC and this Steny Hoyer endorsement has the smell of welcoming back another Washington insider to play the same old same old Congressional Washington insider political games.  

    This also tends to preempt and make less valuable any future efforts by DC insiders (outsiders to PA, but the ultimate Washington insiders) Bill and Hillary Clinton.

    DC- based insider endorsements by Democrats of party-switching Arlen Specter had no effect. He lost in almost every county of the state in his primary in 2010.

    MM's opponents are already tagging her with that Washington insider label.  I suspect voters in PA-13 will opt to go in a different direction, and not send the older MM back to Congress.

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