Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

9:32 AM PT: TX-Gov: Wendy Davis may have achieved progressive rockstar status last week with her instantly famous filibuster that temporarily thwarted Republican efforts to restrict abortion access, but Texas still has a ways to go before it'll be ready to elect her governor, at least according to PPP's new poll. Her 39-29 favorability rating is quite good for a Democratic state senator whom few people had heard of half a year ago (she was at 15-19 in January). But Texas's demographics, and Gov. Rick Perry's improved standing—his 45-50 job approval is up from 41-54 previously—place her well behind in head-to-head matchups.

PPP pitted Davis, along with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, Houston Mayor Annise Parker, and 2010 nominee Bill White against both Perry and his likely primary opponent, state AG Greg Abbott. The numbers in the chart below list Republicans first, with trendlines from January in parentheses:

Perry Abbot
Davis 53-39
(47-41)
48-40
(46-34)
Castro 50-43
(47-42)
48-34
(46-36)
Parker 52-35
(47-40)
50-31
(47-35)
White 50-40
(44-47)
48-36
(46-39)

There are a few things to note here, though, and they're a reminder of why you should never accept a single poll as gospel truth. First off, some of the swings since January are big—really big. White, a former Houston mayor himself, was actually up 3 points on Perry in the prior survey, yet now he's down 10. Thirteen points is quite the shift, and there isn't really a good way to explain it, beyond concluding that the previous poll was too optimistic for Democrats, or the current one too pessimistic.

Another is the fact that Davis comes closest to Abbott yet also somehow drives Perry to his highest vote share. That's something we didn't see in January. Is it possible that, as Perry's new number one bête noire, she inspires a few extra voters to pick sides against her, but only when they're paired? It would be a strange phenomenon, but I'm hard-pressed for an explanation; you don't typically see a candidate perform the best against one guy but second-worst against another.

As for Perry, he's doing better when matched against Abbott in a GOP primary. The incumbent now leads 46-34, compared to a 41-38 squeaker in January. Still, Abbott has an absurd war chest (far larger than Perry's), and plenty of ambition, so I'd expect him to forge ahead. After all, like I say, this is just one poll, and it has some definite quirks. That said, I'm more inclined to believe it than the prior one. Texas may be slowly trending the right way, but I think we've got a long way to go. And as much as I'd like to see Wendy Davis tear Rick Perry to shreds, I think we aren't quite there yet.

1:26 PM PT: WV-01: This isn't exactly breaking news, but we hadn't mentioned this guy before, so I figured we ought to now. Anyhow, longtime state Auditor Glen Gainer is considering a run against sophomore GOP Rep. David McKinley, and it would be a free shot for Gainer since he's not up for re-election until 2014. But at 62-36 Romney, the 1st is a pretty darn inhospitable district for Democrats, even though Team Blue held this seat decades until McKinley won. I also have to wonder how a statewide official who has served for 20 years, like Gainer, can somehow not have a Wikipedia page at this point in history.

1:33 PM PT: State Legislatures: We've been talking a bit more about state legislative races lately, in large part because Democrats now have the chance to reverse some of the gains the GOP made in 2010, especially in several blue states where they hold the ignominious trifecta (the state House, the state Senate, and the governor's mansion). Steve Singiser made the case for this new focus in an essay last weekend, and now community member CF of Aus has taken things one step further, with an awesome compilation of Daily Kos user posts on legislatures across the country. There are still many states not represented on CF's list, though, so if you have local knowledge of your home state's legislature, now is the time to start sharing it with others, so that we can best direct our efforts for 2014.

2:04 PM PT: HI-Sen: In the wake of a new independent poll from Merriman River showing Sen. Brian Schatz with a 36-33 lead over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary, EMILY's List has come out with numbers of their own saying that it just ain't so. The group (which is backing Hanabusa) showed Politico the topline from an early June Clarity Campaigns survey that has Hanabusa up 46-35.

But Schatz's camp responded by saying no, it really is so. Schatz's own late June polling, from the Mellman Group, has the two candidates tied at 37 apiece. Mellman also says that Hanabusa has higher name rec, 86 percent to 71 percent, and while they don't provide favorability breakdowns, they do add that Schatz leads 47-34 among the two thirds of the electorate that's familiar with both contenders.

2:57 PM PT: Deaths: Former Philadelphia Rep. Bill Gray died unexpectedly on Monday while attending Wimbledon at the age of 71. Gray was first elected to Congress in 1978 when he was still in his 30s, quickly rising through the ranks and becoming one of the most powerful black elected officials in the country. That made his resignation in 1991 to become head of the United Negro College Fund something of a headscratcher, though some never-proven financial irregularities may have hastened his exit.

Gray's departure was also followed by a wild three-way special election in the 2nd District later that year. The race pitted three prominent Democrats against one other, including two who ran on third-party lines because they failed to secure their own party's endorsement. The victor was Lucien Blackwell, who took 40 percent, while John White and Chakah Fattah split the rest evenly. But wait, you might be wondering—doesn't Fattah represent PA-02 these days? He does indeed, because he whooped Blackwell in a primary three years later.

3:01 PM PT: AK-AL: Despite his age, his constant ethical troubles, and his occasional bouts of foot-in-mouth disease, GOP Rep. Don Young has announced that he's filing paperwork to seek a 21st term in Congress.

3:02 PM PT: IA-04: Iraq vet Jim Mowrer, who has been considering a bid since April, has now made his campaign to challenge GOP Rep. Steve King official. This is a brutally inhospitable district for Democrats, but there's always a chance that King says something even his own, mostly conservative, constituents can't forgive him for, so at least Mowrer will be able to take advantage of any Akin moments that may arise.

5:05 PM PT: CO-Sen: State Sen. Owen Hill, who is all of 31 years old and was first elected to office just last year, says he's "talking about" a possible run against Sen. Mark Udall and expects to decide in the next two weeks. Another Republican, failed 2010 nominee Ken Buck, is also "talking about" the race, which would represent a change of direction for him, since he seemed to have his eye on the open attorney general's seat. However, the GOP has yet to find someone to actually say yes to a bid, though there are still a few other potential names in the mix, including state Rep. Amy Stephens, state Sen. Randy Baumgardner, ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez.

5:17 PM PT: PA-Gov: Here's a  nice twist on traditional loserspeak from a supporter of Republican Gov. Tom Corbett who seems to misapprehend how opinion polling actually works:

"Gov. Corbett is going to go on the road the next couple of months, and he's good outside the Beltway," said David Patti, president of the Pennsylvania Business Council. "People out there like him. They don't read polls, and they don't care. They don't know that they've been told not to like him."
And why the loserspeak? It's not just those god-awful poll numbers. The legislative session just ended, and even though Corbett's fellow Republicans control both chambers, they failed to enact any of his three major agenda items: privatization of liquor sales, pension reform, and increased infrastructure funding. It's enough to make you wonder why this guy even wants another term in office.

5:20 PM PT: 2Q Fundraising:

IA-Sen: Rep. Bruce Braley: $1.3 mil raised, $2 mil cash-on-hand

5:22 PM PT: (And Perry may not run again, though he says he'll announce his "exciting future plans" on Monday.)

5:55 PM PT: KY-Sen: So I originally wasn't going to post this bizarre Mitch McConnell web video, mostly because I refuse to watch it myself and because I generally have a thing against posting web videos. But based on the extremely strong reaction in comments, this one sounds so epically bad—maybe even Demon Sheep bad?—that I figure I might as well share it and let each of you decide whether to destroy a few precious brain cells on it. Up to you!


EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:00:10 AM PDT

  •  Egypt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, betelgeux

    Coup in T-minus 36 hours.

    http://m.usatoday.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:24:49 AM PDT

  •  Anyone else notice that Martha Layne Collins (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, betelgeux, KingofSpades, walja

    was standing right next to ALG at her announcement? Is she a Lundergan family ally or something?

  •  just wondering (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, ChadmanFL, skibum59

    if someone legally changed their last name to fuckshit, would a): the ballot be required to print it as is?
               b): the "i approve this message" bit be bleeped on an ad?

  •  TX Gov PPP: Perry 53 Davis 39 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 08:20:47 AM PDT

    •  Castro (5+ / 0-)

      now outperforming White 43 versus 40 (Perry flat at 50).

      Davis has low name recognition, but Perry has a lead that would be impossible to whittle down. Castro seems like the better candidate, yet again, in polling.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 08:26:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, DCCyclone

        I have previously mentioned that Davis might in reality be the better choice given her race, but that may not actually be the case given polling.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 08:27:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know about that (0+ / 0-)

          Given that even the strongest candidate is still behind substantially, it might make more sense to go with someone who can harness the energy that the filibuster unleashed. Wendy Davis's volunteer army could potentially be more successful in setting up the infrastructure that could help future Democrats than some other candidate's (although Castro could help with that too, certainly)

          Plus Wendy Davis would have much better success raising money from out of state than a lot of other candidates, and money is a huge deal in such a big state.

          The bottom line is that she doesn't need to have a good chance of winning to get the enthusiastic support of the volunteer and donor class, and that is a valuable asset in and of itself.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:16:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Frankly (0+ / 0-)

            Both Castro and Davis are matched in fundraising potential. The connections that Castro has both within the Latino community, because of his DNC speech, and through Stanford University (which has a tremendous fundraising network) are insane. Until her filibusters Davis was a potential exciting de facto non factor.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:23:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  They should rock paper scissors (0+ / 0-)

              Over who runs for Governor and who runs for Senator.

              You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

              by Gpack3 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:26:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Not bad (0+ / 0-)

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 08:30:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Nothing to see here (7+ / 0-)

      Texas Democrats have given notice; now maybe in 10-20 years, they'll be able to make a bit more noise electorally.

    •  That's sobering (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, trowaman
    •  A few things (0+ / 0-)

      I think the more important numbers are the Abbott/Davis numbers- most observers seem to think that Perry is going to hang it up.

      Also, I'd be quite surprised if the demographic numbers held- the undecideds are much higher amongst Latinos and African-Americans. It would seem from those numbers that while it's still an uphill battle, that the undecideds seem to come more from the D side than the R side.

    •  weird (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, wwmiv, MrLiberal, jncca, ChadmanFL

      Perry leads Castro by 7 but Davis by 14.
      Abbott leads Castro by 14 but Davis by 8.

      Why on earth would Castro be the stronger candidate against Perry, but Davis better against Abbott? Even bad samples almost never produce results like this. Usually when a sample is bad, it favors one party across the board.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 09:48:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is the biggest point here (0+ / 0-)

        And is actually better than everything in the diary above. Bad samples by definition are biased toward one party or the other. When you have very mixed results like what you see in the PPP poll, it is much more likely to be a good sample with each candidate floating within the margin of error.

        But still, Castro seems to do better yet again that Davis does, even if it is within margin of error (which, as Nate Silver has shown repeatedly, a small margin that holds up consistently both across polling outfits and over the span of time is likely to be a real enduring difference).

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:13:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good news from Civitas(!?) in North Carolina (10+ / 0-)

    Sen. Hagan at 42-28 favorables, Gov. McCrory at 49-32, and President Obama at 49-47 (not bad!). Story here.

  •  IL-GOV: Mike Bloomberg endorse Bill Daley (0+ / 0-)

    link

    Miller notes this might be about keeping Madigan out of the race. Daley definitely needs that to happen, but I'm skeptical a Bloomberg endorsement will do it.

    That said, not really sure what is going on with Madigan, and it wouldnt shock me if she declines a gov bid, and runs for Senate in 2016.

  •  Rep. Don Young is filing for reelection (10+ / 0-)

    He's one of the oldest and most senior members of Congress at this point. I didn't seriously expect him to retire, but I think Alaska Republicans are preparing for that eventuality. Story here.

    Probably the name that comes up most frequently as a potential successor to Young is Lance Pruitt, the House majority leader. Pruitt is only 31 (the second-youngest Alaska legislator) and was just elected in 2010 from a light-red district, so it's pretty clear he's being groomed for statewide office.

    Young not retiring this year makes things more complicated, though. Pruitt is not the only person mentioned, although he would appear to be the most obvious choice.

    Gov. Sean Parnell came within a whisker's breadth of successfully primarying Young in 2008, and while I think he'll be content to return to the private sector after his governorship, he could end up deciding to give Congress another shot if there's an open seat. If Lt. Gov. Treadwell falls short next year for Senate, a bid for House in 2016 or 2018 doesn't seem too far-fetched. Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan, state Sen. Lesil McGuire, and Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan are all looking to move up (Mayor Sullivan and McGuire are candidates for lieutenant governor this cycle, while Commissioner Sullivan is thought to be eyeing the Senate race). Joe Miller could run. There are other state legislators who could run, especially from the Senate, which may not be interested in House Republicans' apparent preference for the young, telegenic Pruitt.

    On the Democratic side, the bench is really limited to a few state legislators and a few mayors and ex-mayors. But with the gubernatorial field slow to take shape (I would expect Wielechowski to eventually declare, but it's really his call), I'm loath to speculate.

  •  SB5 at 20-28 support/oppose (5+ / 0-)

    At least this may put to an end to the media conventional wisdom that this bill was widely popular

  •  So question about Maine legislators (4+ / 0-)

    Why are so many of them so young? I don't think any other state has such young legislators, and the term limits alone can't explain it, since California at least has those as well.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 09:05:04 AM PDT

    •  Term limits plus (7+ / 0-)

      a large legislative body relative to the state, I think.  Each member of the Maine House represents only 8000-9000 people which makes it easier for someone who is younger and isn't previously known to gain enough support to win a seat, which would be harder to do in a larger district.  The fact that the seats come open every few terms helps out.  We would probably see the same thing in the NH House if they had term limits.  

    •  Term limits + large houses + small state. (6+ / 0-)

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 09:24:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not exactly sure (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, ArkDem14, MrLiberal

      however it probably helps that the House districts are very small - 151 of them in a state with 1.3 million people, so that's about 8,800 people per district. With districts that small, it's easy to get to know everyone there.

      For example, in my college's district, our current state representative ran for the first time as a senior at my college (it helped that he was from the town originally). Everyone at my college knew him, and most people in town knew him already also. The district is heavily Democratic, so he has won all his elections easily.

      Maybe, also, the ever-independent Mainers figure that young people are less likely to be strongly partisan or corrupted by the system. In general this seems to be true despite the counterexample of myself (I'm not corrupt, just strongly partisan).

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 09:29:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  One guess would be the amount of turn-over (0+ / 0-)

      In the state house, Dems currently have a 89-58 advantage.  Prior to the last election, the Republicans had the majority.  So that's a lot of people without any seniority, so makes sense they may be younger in age.

  •  Rep. Steve King lands a Democratic challenger (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, BoswellSupporter, DCCyclone

    Jim Mowrer, a Some Dude, managed to get a Roll Call write-up of his entry into the race. Story here.

    “When I served in Iraq, there were no Democrats or Republicans — just Americans working together to protect our safety and stability,” Mowrer said in a news release. “In Congress, too many politicians are trying to score political points for partisan gain or pushing sound bytes to please their extreme base. I’ve decided to run for Congress to restore that true sense of public service.”
    Meh. Hope he can self-fund.
  •  New Republic plays counterpoint... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, askew

    To the National Journal's profile boosting Gov. O'Malley for 2016, saying basically that he is boring. Story here.

    The issue, though, is not merely that O’Malley is a ho-hum speaker. Among political prognosticators, he is often referred to as the Howard Dean of 2016—the candidate with the best chance of galvanizing the party’s liberal base. In part, this expectation comes from his progressive roots. O’Malley was raised in an active Democratic family in the Washington suburbs and volunteered for Gary Hart’s 1984 presidential campaign while attending Catholic University. He married into a well-known political family in Baltimore, where he fashioned himself into a young urban reformer, battling crime and corruption. As Steve Kearney, a former O’Malley adviser, says: “That was about all he talked about when he was a city councilman—that it was not fair that we accept a level of chaos and violence and unhappiness in poor neighborhoods that we’d never accept in wealthier ones.”

    The problem is that, as a national politician, O’Malley won’t, or perhaps can’t, articulate those values. His preferred mode is that of a bloodless consultant with a tin ear. After the Obamacare debate, he complained that his fellow Democrats “immediately run to the values of caring and fairness” instead of focusing on the economic case for reform. Arguing against tax cuts for the rich on “Charlie Rose,” he said: “I don’t look at it as fairness. I look at it as doing the things that work.” In Maryland, he sold both marriage equality and immigration reform on the logic that they would make the state more business-friendly. Indeed, on nearly every high-profile issue, he was following the agenda of the increasingly liberal state legislature rather than leading it.

    Whenattempting to explain a deeper rationale for his policies, O’Malley tends to offer long lists of metrics, or anodyne pronouncements like, “It’s not about whether we move left or right; it’s about whether we move forward or back.” He has a penchant for quoting, approvingly and at length, the bromides of Tom Friedman. It’s hard to see Democratic primary voters getting fired up about a candidate whose vision for the nation is of an “opportunity-expanding entity.” “Liberal activists want to see a little passion, a little sweat on the brow, but that’s not him,” one veteran Maryland Democratic strategist told me.

    So obviously I disagree, and I think parts of this article are in fact complete bullshit.

    O'Malley pushed for gay marriage over the objections of conservative black Democrats and pushed for death penalty repeal over the objections of powerful Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr., among other examples of him overcoming legislative opposition.

    Democratic primary voters absolutely have picked competence and intelligence over passion and showmanship (not to say they're mutually exclusive, but profile, profile, profile). To wit: 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004. Then-Sen. Obama in 2008 was the exception that proves the rule.

    For the "tin ear" talk, I don't think you work your way up to be governor of fractious, ultradiverse Maryland (after being mayor of Baltimore, no less) and succeed in pushing a progressive agenda without being able to read a room. O'Malley has generally acquitted himself very well in speaking roles and as a surrogate for the Obama administration; the DGA speech, which was more of a slight letdown than it was a trainwreck (seriously, people should go back and watch it -- it wasn't that bad), and that flubbed question on "Meet the Press" that was swiftly handled are the only real hiccups in that record.

    I could go on, but I figured I'd present this anyway.

  •  Democrats Recruiting Gitmo Commander in MI-01 (17+ / 0-)

    I've heard this mentioned before, but I thought it was worth discussing again, particularly considering this new Roll Call article. According to close Democratic sources, Retired Army Maj. Gen. Jerry Cannon "is close to announcing" that he's going to run against Dan Benishek in MI-01. He's probably our best candidate we can put up. Gary McDowell was a fair candidate, but after his loss in the 2010 wave and narrowly losing again in 2012, it's probably best to try in 2014 with someone else. As long as Cannon campaigns less like Jonathan George or Ricardo Sanchez and more like Joe Sestak, then he should be a solid recruit. Here's a profile written in March about Cannon's life and public service over the last several decades.

  •  PA-Gov: saddest campaign announcement pic ever (6+ / 0-)

    Jo Ellen Litz, the Democratic county commissioner for Lebenon county, announced her campaign for Governor.  Litz really could have set up her announcement on the Capitol steps a lot better as this photo shows.

    Litz's website continues to look...  memorable...

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:08:33 AM PDT

  •  Latino Decisions poll on immigration reform (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, DCCyclone

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:17:26 AM PDT

    •  Hillary Clinton has a higher net fav (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      than does Obama.

      Clinton +56
      Obama +53

      Though that is within the margin of error. Either way, it is substantially similar to Obama, and simply shows that Clinton could win substantial portions of the Latino vote similarly to Obama '12 with potential for both a) a higher share, given both trend and Clinton's unique appeal to Hispanics and b) higher Hispanic turnout, given both the past trend of increasing share and further boost given Clinton's unique appeal to Hispanics.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:26:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Biden (0+ / 0-)

        Biden, however, would be a disaster among Hispanics. He's looked at favorably, but he's only in the high 50s.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:26:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A "disaster"? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tommypaine, gabjoh, askew

          Seriously? What are you talking about? He's at 58-21 at that poll, second only to Clinton among potential 2016 candidates. Hello?

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:32:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I meant it relatively to where we could be (0+ / 0-)

            Disaster insofar as he won't be anywhere close to matching either Obama's levels with Hispanics or Clinton's potential levels. I'd rather keep up our margins among that growing ethnic group, not let them sink to where they used to be.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:35:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  That's silly to call him a "disaster" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NMLib, askew

          Biden would do fine.

          Any Democrat would get in the 60s with Hispanics, breaking 70 in periods of particularly high GOP unpopularity.

          Latino Decisions is a good outfit, but what a random poll says now doesn't mean a lot.  Hispanics would come home to the Democratic nominee eventually, just later with Biden or someone else than with Hillary.  They were somewhat late coming home for Obama even last year.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:15:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Additionally (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Christie's standing with Hispanics is far better than all other GOP potential candidates, perhaps partially explaining the differential between him and other Republicans and Democratic candidates in horse race polls.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:29:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rubio does the best in match-ups (0+ / 0-)

      at a pitiful 28%. I'm not impressed.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:55:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  After VRA ruling, NC GOP moves to voter ID (11+ / 0-)

    and ending early voting, Sunday voting and same day voter registration.

    I've said it before, but it's stuff like this that hurts the GOP with minorities more than even voter ID. There is at least a case to be made for voter ID and ways it can be implemented fairly.

    But I cant think of a valid explanation to cut short voting hours, days and opportunities to vote.

    More likely than not, we end up with a Florida 2012 situation, where long lines become a national story and embarrass the state. In FL, at least, they reversed some of their restrictions.

  •  HI-Sen EMILY's List poll: Hanabusa leads 46-35 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, IndyLiberal

    http://www.politico.com/...

    The survey was taken by the Democratic firm Clarity Campaigns on June 10 and 11, testing 771 likely primary voters for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.53 percentage points. The sample was collected from 80 percent land-line users and 20 percent cell phones.

    ...

    That poll tested 869 registered voters, as opposed to likely primary voters.

    I wonder if coming off of two less-than-ideal primary polls, Schatz will feel compelled to release his own.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 10:41:42 AM PDT

    •  Why would he need to? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A

      Yesterday's M-R poll would help support his case in the media, without needing to tip his hand on his internals.

      •  It's not the greatest result (0+ / 0-)

        It's not terrible to be in this tight a race but if he can supply a poll showing him up a lot more it could help.

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 11:23:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  State pundits and media (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff, JBraden, jncca

          will probably be more inclined to believe an independent poll than one released by either campaign (even if M-R isn't all that hot). So if I were him, I wouldn't release any info here.

          The media spin is likely to be: "Schatz slightly ahead in Civic Beat poll; Hanabusa campaign differs."

          Or even: "Race neck and neck in Civic Beat poll. Hanabusa campaign claims lead."

          Even the latter isn't really damaging for Schatz, especially this far out. It's probably best for him to guard the proprietary info his campaign has, unless he's finding himself way up (which I would doubt).

        •  Her name rec is higher (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, Stephen Wolf

          I'm not sure why anyone would expect Schatz to be up much if at all. But he has more room for growth.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:36:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Help with what? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, NMLib

          Internal polling releases are not a pissing match.  As I've commented many times before, campaigns don't release polls for anyone's benefit in the campaign commentariat.  They release polling because they see some kind of downstream benefit with fundraising or media coverage that eventually can have a downstream effect on voters.  But internal poll releases get very little media coverage and even less notice among voters.  And fundraising effects vary.

          Schatz is the incumbent right now, and any incumbent U.S. Senator who can't raise lots of money just because s/he is an incumbent U.S. Senator is dead in the water anyway.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:19:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Ick, this is real dumb from McConnell (13+ / 0-)

    Warning: VERY annoying and pointless
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 11:03:06 AM PDT

  •  PA-GOV: #corbettfail (10+ / 0-)

    A trio of great articles on just how Gov. Tom Corbett went 0-for-3 in getting his legislative priorities passed by the GOP-controlled legislature. Hbg Patriot-News:

    The scale of the loss is only heightened by Corbett's extensive, statewide campaign for the agenda. Though he declared them of utmost importance and worked hard for them, he failed to deliver.

    Now, with his waning political capital tied inextricably to the unsuccessful "big three" agenda, and tanking poll numbers suggesting that voters don't like a man they also damningly consider ineffective, some Pennsylvania Republicans are whispering that the governor has become a liability to the state party.

    "The fact that he hasn't produced proves that he's not a competent executive," said Bob Guzzardi, a grassroots Montgomery County tea party activist. "And it's starting to intuitively get out there."...

    Tom Fitzgerald, Philly Inq, captures Loserspeak in the wild:
     
    "Gov. Corbett is going to go on the road the next couple of months, and he's good outside the Beltway," said David Patti, president of the Pennsylvania Business Council. "People out there like him. They don't read polls, and they don't care. They don't know that they've been told not to like him."
    And the PA Independent:
    With the transportation deal crumbling like fractured concrete on Saturday night, the finger-pointing started.

    State Rep. Mike Vereb, R-Montgomery, hammered Democratic leaders for backing away from the table at the last minute and stranding the transportation plan more than 30 votes shy of passage.

    “They’re not paid to think,” Vereb said.

    Democrats, already unhappy with the way they had been treated, were less than receptive to being publicly insulted.

  •  RIP William Gray D-PA (Philadelphia) (8+ / 0-)

    Former US Rep. William Gray passed away today while in England for the Wimbledon tennis tournament.  He was 71.  He was the first black to serve in the Office of Majority Leader of either political party while serving in the House.

    "The Attorney General will not cast aspersions on my asparagus" - Texas Rep. Louis Gohmert-R to Attorney General Eric Holder.

    by walja on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 11:30:20 AM PDT

  •  Your election statistic of the day (6+ / 0-)

    or why I just can't put West Virginia as anything worse than Lean R this far out with zero polling.

    Since 1992, there have been 54 non-presidential statewide elections (aggregating the 'vote for two' Supreme Court ones w/ 2R vs 2D into one). Republicans have won exactly four of them. Then you have the fact that we held the open agriculture commissioner's office despite Obama being on top of the ticket, and barely lost the AG race with a somewhat ethically challenged incumbent, and I'm just extremely reluctant to put this race as Likely R in July of 2013.

    Shelley Moore Capito is more likely to win than not at this point. She could even win big, but this is a state which has an extremely extensive history of being against her based on party rather than just ideology, and we've had practically zero public polling. If Robin Davis is our nominee, this will still be a close race. If for some reason either Natalie Tennant or Glen Gainer runs, it's entirely within reason that they might win. Capito is just not John Hoeven and this is not the Dakotas.

    I really, really wish we could get PPP to poll here...

    •  And one further addendum (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, ArkDem14, gabjoh

      though we lost 11 seats in the state House of Reps, 7 of those were either relatively close (within 5% 1 vs 1 or 2.5% 2 vs 2) or had a green party spoiler. There were 4 senate races we lost by 5-7% in a chamber we lost net 3 but still have a commanding supermajority. Keep in mind that this is a state with straight ticket voting which almost certainly hurts us when Mitt Romney carries every county, but unfortunately I can't find the break down of straight ticket votes cast on the SoS website :/ In short though, if Moore Capito somehow gets teabagged I think we're in for a good cycle in WV without Obama on the ballot.

      I will say though that WV's SoS site's section on elections is quite good out of the 50 states. They have results going back to the 1950s by county which is how I was more or less able to determine that not a single Republican below the presidential level had likely carried WV-03 in its current iteration.

      Also random, but the North Carolina Board of Elections website, which I think is fantastic from a political junkie standpoint, very creepily lets you look up the voter registration and voting record for the last decade of anyone.

    •  I agree wholeheartedly. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      West Virginia hasn't had a Republican senator since Robert Byrd defeated W. Chapman Revercomb in 1958, and we just don't have the data to make a call on this race yet.

      Shelley Moore Capito is obviously a strong Republican candidate, but she has never run a statewide campaign and there remains a distinct possibility that she could be teabagged by Pat McGeehan.  With her or without her though, we desperately need more polling data here.  (Especially polling that, you know, includes the strongest Dem prospectives COUGH Natalie Tennant COUGH).

      Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

      by JBraden on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 12:28:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But isn't part of the reason (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, lordpet8, skibum59

        for the lack of a GOP senator also because of the popularity of those individual Democratic senators?

        Don't forget, 2010 was the first open seat senate race in WV since 1984.  And before that, the last was in 1958.

        •  Well, yeah, but (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          even a popular senator is always somewhat vulnerable in a state that favors the other party.  We saw that just last year with Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren.

          Obviously, West Virginia has changed significantly, but it still has a strong populist streak that Democrats can exploit, and it's still an ancestrally Democratic state.  If the polls start to look like Lincoln vs. Boozman, I'll write this one off.  Until then, I'm just not ready.

          Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

          by JBraden on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 04:32:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Past performance is never a good metric (9+ / 0-)

      for future results in politics, especially in a region like Appalachia that is trending hard against the Democrats at a federal level and in some cases at a local level (despite their string of statewide wins, Democrats have lost a net 18 seats in the WV House since 2006). And, as has been noted, there have only been four Senators elected in WV in the past half-century.

      What I find most telling is that no Democrat is willing to step forward. The more time passes, the smaller the window of opportunity gets for a candidate to launch a successful Senate campaign.

      •  it is the only metric (0+ / 0-)

        other than voter registration and demographics. It's why we can see trends. I have no idea how what you said could possibly be right.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 01:30:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's right on the local races (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, CF of Aus

          Here's the WV State House makeup in past years.  Dems have lost seats in every election.  Prior to these years Dems held inthe range of 68-90 seats for a good two plus decades.  Surely this will spill over to statewide races very soon.

          2012: 54D/46R
          2010: 65D/35R
          2008: 69D/31R
          2006: 72D/28R

          I'm not sure why but the WV State Senate has held steady, still at 28D/6R.  Must be a great job gerrymandering.

          •  no, that IS past performance (0+ / 0-)

            and when you look at it in the aggregate, it is exactly why we know that there is a trend against us there.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 01:54:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  though the Dems actually gained two seats (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL

            in the senate in 2010 of all years.

            It may have just been an anomaly.

            “Democrats legislate; Republicans investigate.” ~ Lyndon Johnson

            by lordpet8 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 02:37:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Johnny is completely correct (6+ / 0-)

        Relying on history for something like this really misses the forest from the trees.

        It's obvious the GOP is on the cusp of a winning streak in WV with the voters finally aligning their conservative impulses with overall voting behavior.

        No different from some Northeastern states.  Rhode Island hasn't had a Democratic Governor in forever, and yet it's a foregone conclusion a Democrat will win next year.  Massachusetts had 4 straight GOP Governors over 16 years, and yet it was a given that eventually the office would snap back to Democrats.

        Only the odd popular individual can overcome a state's strong partisan impulses, when a state has such strong impulses.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:28:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Additionally, the Secretary of State (0+ / 0-)

      Additionally, the Secretary of State office the GOP won in 2004 was against and 86 year old Ken Hechler and barely won. The 1996 Governors race Charlotte Pritt was a terrible candidate and had the Democrats nominated Joe Manchin he would have won easily.  

      •  Yes in addition to those two (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        I counted one Supreme Court victory in the mid/late 1990s, and their 2012 Attorney General victory, that's it.

        To respond to Johnny upthread, I realize that past trends aren't necessarily indicative of future trends. But to be able to make a race rating you have to have adequate data. The overall point I wanted to get across is that we just do not have adequate data here and given how the state generically favors Democrats, but with a strong Republican and importantly over a year out it's just too early to me to make this Likely Republican.

        If conditions next year this time are the same then sure, but it just seems way premature to me to just write this seat off, especially without polling. There's still plenty of time for even a second tier candidate like Supreme Court Chief Justice Robin Davis to run, but she'll possibly have to resign first so I can see the hesitation to do so.

      •  Ken Hechler was, ahem, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, skibum59

        89. And he's still going strong at age 98 and is the oldest living former member of either house of Congress.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:20:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He was also as liberal as you could get (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, Stephen Wolf, JBraden, skibum59

          and remain a Democrat.  He is a lifelong activist for the environment and civil rights.  He actually was in the march to Birmingham, AL.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:23:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Rick Perry to announce future plans on July 8 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, lordpet8

    https://twitter.com/...

    He was supposed to announce his reelection plans by yesterday so we'll see if he meets this date.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 11:43:49 AM PDT

  •  In reading the twitters this week (7+ / 0-)

    I noticed some tweets by the National Journal reporter that is supposed to cover the South, and I have already seen two examples of how the person needs to learn a few things about Kentucky before tweeting.

    1. She mentioned that even John Yarmuth didn't know what ALG was going to announce. Somebody should let her know that Yarmuth is not close to the Grimes wing of the Dem party. He would not be on the list of the first people to know that.

    2. She said that ALG's grandmothers need to create a response ad. One of her grandmothers passed away last year.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 12:17:32 PM PDT

    •  What do you think about some of the (0+ / 0-)

      BS the GOPers are trying to create over the sloppy press conference?  Inside baseball and stuff that nobody cares about?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 12:19:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hypothetical (0+ / 0-)

      but if Grimes loses, which seems somewhat more likely than not, do you think she tries to go directly for Gov or reelection or maybe even KY-06 if it keeps swinging our way downballot (at least in off years)? She's based in the Lexington area I presume and carried the 6th by a whopping 25% margin in 2011.

      The gov primary seems like it's going to get awfully crowded awfully fast, though I presume she could theoretically run for Attorney General if she's looking to move up and bide her time; that's probably what I'd do if I were her and lost to McConnell.

      •  My hunch (and it's just that, a hunch) (0+ / 0-)

        that if she loses, she'll likely run for re-election as SoS.  A-G, maybe, but State Rep. John Tilley may want that.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:15:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If she loses (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, gabjoh

        but it's close, I suspect she might try to take on Rand Paul in 2016 (i.e. trying to take the Thune/Ensign/Lugar route).

        Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

        by JBraden on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:29:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Or bide her time for a Governor's bid (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          It depends how 2014 goes, but if she feels burned next year, she might shy away from challenging another incumbent, even though Paul is a lot more vulnerable than McConnell.

          Of course, Paul will be even more vulnerable than normal if he's galavanting around the country running for President and getting his mug on TV in other states.  And it seems near-certain he'll run for President, he has no inhibitions at all about it.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:31:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Why doesn't my state(MA) have early voting? is it (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ehstronghold, LordMike, gabjoh

    because we're not usually competitive(ask Martha Coakley about that)? i feel like my liberal state can do much better on voting rights.

  •  VA-Chap Peterson calls on Gov to explain or resign (5+ / 0-)

    on the gift situation. One would think other legislators may follow soon.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 12:45:34 PM PDT

    •  Then Bolling could finally be Governor! (5+ / 0-)

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 01:08:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What happens to the Lt. Gov position if he does? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        According to Ballotpedia, Bolling would be able to appoint the new Lieutenant Governor to serve till the general election. But it's not clear to me that such an appointment requires Senate confirmation. It would be funny if Bolling appointed someone only to have him rejected on a 20-20 vote. It's too bad you can't be Lt. Governor and Governor at the same time!

        I doubt this will matter at all since the Virginia Senate, to my knowledge, won't be coming back for a special session this year.

        •  The VA General Assembly (0+ / 0-)

          will probably convene next January a few days before the next governor takes over.  Not that it would matter much in that event, though the even split and it being likely there are two vacancies (due to the LG and AG elections) could make things interesting depending on timing and result of special elections.

          In any event, that's all academic.  I don't see McDonnell leaving early with (currently) just six months left in his term, no matter what happens with the gifts scandal.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 01:54:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Pretty much (0+ / 0-)

            Resignation under these circumstances would be invariably be described as having been "under disgrace" which is sort of true. The deathknell of any of McDonnell's future ambitions.

            Actually, this works out pretty good. Makes it harder for the GOP ticket in the fall, they'll have to dodge questions about McDonnell scandals.

        •  This is where Jackson would really hurt (0+ / 0-)

          Bolling might in that situation simply appoint the GOP L.G. nominee to be the L.G.  But he would never appoint Jackson.  I doubt he'll endorse Northam publicly, but I am pretty confident he's voting for Northam.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:33:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:42:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  KY-SEN: So apparently that McConnell campaign (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingofSpades, betelgeux, JBraden

    video misspelled McConnell's name.

    link.

  •  David (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, David Nir, DCCyclone

    The tag should be WV-1, not WV-2.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 02:03:47 PM PDT

  •  West Virginia (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Shouldn't the 1:26 PM PT entry be WV-1?  That's the district that David McKinley represents.  WV-2 is the one Shelly Moore Capito is opening up to run for Senate.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 02:04:42 PM PDT

    •  Also just for reference (4+ / 0-)

      the 1st is basically the same partisan wise downballot as the state, so it would be like David McKinley had barely beaten a stand in statewide in 2010, didn't get challenged in 2012, but still saw Democrats like Gainer win big simultaneously. Gainer, FWIW, carried the 1st 59.3% to 40.7% despite Obama at the top of the ticket. Yes it wasn't a federal race so the normal caveats apply, but he'd at least make this competitive.

      I don't know, this could be the cycle where we see a massive alignment in West Virginia, but none of the past data really indicates it's looming outside of the senate race.

      •  I'd love to see some polling (0+ / 0-)

        on both this and the 2nd.  My curiosity is a little piqued.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:25:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    While Mark Mellman is an excellent pollster and absolutely nails states like Nevada cycle after cycle, I'm still incredibly wary of all polls in Hawaii. They've just been so off cycle after cycle, at least the ones that get publicly released. That and the state has a late primary (august 2014?) and there's no way of checking the validity of this poll. Hopefully we'll get a Schatz internal from Mellman right before the primary that might give us a useful data point for comparison, but at this point I'm just disregarding all polls in Hawaii period.

    I remember polling of the general election this far out had Lingle doing quite well and Hirono poorly, yet Hirono ended up winning by 25...

  •  WATN: Will Breazeale (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jncca

    This is a little down in the weeds, but it has (in my mind) an interesting twist that applies to where I live.

    Will Breazeale, whose name might be remotely familiar to you because he ran for Congress in 2008 and 2010 against Mike McIntyre (he was the Republican nominee in 2008 but lost to Ilario Pantano in the primary in 2010), was arrested in my hometown, Oviedo, Florida, back in February 2013 for stalking his ex-wife.

    As it turns out, Breazeale's ex-wife, Kathryn Breazeale, was the City Manager of Oviedo for about a year and a half. She recently resigned due to "troubling personal matters" following her ex-husband's arrest.

    Like I said, down in the weeds, but Oviedo isn't in the news very often and it hardly ever connects to congressional elections, so I was intrigued.

    19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

    by tqycolumbia on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:08:58 PM PDT

  •  Heidi Heitkamp is probably the model for (8+ / 0-)

    Alison Grimes to follow.

    A popular statewide elected official, who had never previously held federal office.

    I imagine Heitkamp was tied to the national party and Obama a lot and handled it pretty well. Her ad on Obamacare, which I think was basically "fix it but here's why we need it" was pretty good.

    Obviously, the huge difference is that Grimes is running against an incumbent, the GOP leader in the Senate, while Heitkamp was running in an open seat. But Obama not being on the ballot probably helps Grimes.  

    •  Heitkamp handled the energy issue real well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, gabjoh, jj32

      It's a similar problem as Grimes', where the energy industry folks all the way down to rank-and-file workers and their families and dependent communities have been hostile both to Obama in particular and to Democrats broadly.  Heitkamp finessed it well.  Grimes can do the same.

      But then Grimes is running against a moneybags powerful incumbent.  Still, her self-definition needs to be along the same lines, so I agree with you.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:36:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm starting to put together a post on (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, CF of Aus

    state senate elections for next year. How helpful would it be to have average election results for Treasurer, SOS, AG, and also results for labor commissioner (though it was nonpartisan nominally, it was D v. R) in 2012? What about state house?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:44:48 PM PDT

    •  I'd honestly ignore labor commissioner (0+ / 0-)

      when I was doing statewide averages for downballot races in all the state I've done them, there were always states such as Oregon that held non-partisan races for things like that or California School Superintendent, etc. which I contemplated including. However when I looked at the results across the several states, they hewed much less to the partisan results by county than the concurrent statewide elections did to themselves of those other statewide downballot offices which led me to believe the results had a much larger degree of candidate/regional influence since people didn't have party ID to go on. I didn't look at it, but I'd bet the undervoting was much more significant since it definitely was for non-partisan races like Supreme Court in the states I looked at at a glance.

      I definitely think it would be good if you included the average of the three partisan races though, especially if you give what it is compared to the state with 58.1% of course being the benchmark (two party). While when I looked at Oregon's counties I found that the partisan average wasn't that much different vs. statewide than Obama's % in said county was vs. statewide, it probably varies more by legislative district and in states where it did vary significantly it was a very useful statistic for congressional district.

      If you have the data, especially for state house districts I'd absolutely urge you to use it, but if you don't I can imagine it would be a pretty involving task to collect all that precinct data across several counties. However, I'm guessing you've already collected a fair amount of counties' precinct data based on what I've previously read of your work and unlike a state with several huge metro areas and crappy output like the Oregon data (.txt files) Oregon might be quite workable. It depends on how much time you're willing to spend, but i'd say go for it if you really want to.

      •  it's not actually that involved (0+ / 0-)

        since we have nested districts, I can just add up the two state house district results.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 04:10:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  wow, to give you an idea of why it might be a good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, lordpet8

      year for us next year, it looks like with 16 districts on the ballot Romney only won 3, and all by less than 53% of the vote. Those are the only 3 districts up without D+ PVIs. Democrats already have 10 of the 16 districts.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 07:07:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A note on your WV-01 news (5+ / 0-)

    The Auditor of West Virginia is an office that has been held by the Gainer family for 44 years. Glen B. Gainer, Jr. was Auditor from 1977 to 1993, and Glen B. Gainer III succeeded him.

    Kind of an insignificant office to have a dynasty in. And is Glen B. Gainer IV being groomed to replace his father?

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:52:06 PM PDT

  •  So, just so people realize this is out there... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, wwmiv

    Here's Aaron Blake's not so positive take on ALG campaign launch

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    This brings up a point - as much as all of us think ALG is the right person to take on McConnell, she really is untested in this sort of campaign, a point that I think David Nir has made. I also felt a bit underwhelmed by the launch (I know commentator wwmiv felt the same way). It's not definitive by any means, but she's going to have to get better by next year if she wants to have a real shot against McConnell.

    Fortunately, she has plenty of time.

    •  All very fair points (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, lordpet8, skibum59

      Not having a website is probably the worst one.

      Dems may be right that the launch got a lot of positive attention in KY.

      But there is nowhere to donate or register to volunteer to turn that positive energy into something tangible.

      •  Key point: (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, David Nir, LordMike, lordpet8, skibum59
        there is nowhere to donate or register to volunteer to turn that positive energy into something tangible.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:26:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  recall, lack of a good campaign site in the early (12+ / 0-)

        days is what cost Ed Markey the election.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:01:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ha, I totally forgot about that (6+ / 0-)

          Just goes to show how "big" worries can sometimes completely fade away.

          Just to be clear, I wasnt saying this would doom her campaign.

          But a least having a splash page to collect emails and donations would have been good.

        •  That's the subject of a new Roll Call commentary (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, James Allen
          What’s the biggest similarity between the victorious 2013 Senate special-election campaign of Edward J. Markey and the 2014 Senate election campaign of Alison Lundergan Grimes? Simply, a reluctance to put up a proper campaign website for weeks after they announced for office.

          Despite being Kentucky Democrats' coveted choice to take on veteran Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, and having her name floated as a potential candidate for higher office since before she even won election in Kentucky's off-cycle 2011 election to be secretary of state, Lundergan Grimes — like Rep. Markey before her — had apparently not given the slightest consideration to where enthusiastic supporters would flock to read more about her biography and political positions, sign up for her campaign's mailing list, and submit donations to her Senate bid. [...]

          A valuable counterpoint here is the experience of Markey, who crushed former naval aviator Gabriel Gomez, the Republican nominee for Senate, in last month's special election by a double-digit margin.

          Rather than enhance the issues distinction between himself and his opponent, Markey blurred it. His campaign website, when it went up, was little more than a splash page for weeks after he entered the race and thus drew virtually no contrasts between himself and his opponent on the issues. [...]

          In any number of campaigns over the past two centuries — beginning in the 1789 presidential election and continuing through a series of school board and aldermanic races, and into the 2013 special Senate election in Massachusetts — not bothering to establish a significant Web presence has been seen by voters not just as an indicator of a candidate’s seriousness about not being on the Internet, but as a larger marker about their opposition to social media and excessive spam emails. There’s simply no reason any candidate who wants to be elected should put up a campaign website right away. [...]

          Obviously we’ll never know for sure whether, had Markey put up a real website quickly and made a point of differentiating between himself and his opponent on central issues, he would have lost last month's contest. But we’re willing to bet Gomez would have at least run a lot closer to Markey than he did. And we’re willing to bet that if Lundergan Grimes fails to take her time before investing in a campaign website and makes a clear distinction on the issues — which will soon be plastered all over the airwaves by her Republican detractors — against McConnell next year, she'll end up failing to replicate Markey's success.

          Story here.
    •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, JBraden, SaoMagnifico, skibum59

      It's not that anyone will cast votes based on what was a really feeble rollout (as much as the Beltway press likes to imagine such things matter). Rather, it's what, if anything, the rollout says about her operation and skills. Maybe it was just nervous jitters on the campaign level and she'll quickly improve. I certainly hope so.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:49:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed, but the ice suddenly thawed (0+ / 0-)

      she made a big post on her Twitter:
      https://twitter.com/...

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 05:52:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This "untested" argument is a silly one (6+ / 0-)

      Almost every non-incumbent major party U.S. Senate nominee is at least as "untested" as Grimes.  A state elected official with reputed personal political talent is a good get for a U.S. Senate race, and Grimes fits that definition.

      How many "tested" options are there, anywhere, ever?  Grimes is at least as tested as Bruce Braley.  She's far more tested than Elizabeth Warren was.  She's more tested than Jon Tester (no pun intended) when he beat Burns.  And so on.

      Yeah it's a difficult race.  They all are, always.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:39:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If any Kossacks live in Ogden, a little (0+ / 0-)

    down in the weeds politicalnews is here for them; Howard Dean's Democracy in America group endorsed Turner C Bitton for Ogden City Council. http://democracyforamerica.com/...

    From what it looks like, he's an actual progressive, and I've talked to him a bit over FB. Seems like a competent guy, and possibly one who can GOTV. If he can win a council seat in Ogden (a city that's been red for a long time but is now turning reddish purple with an influx of Hispanic immigrants and folks from bluer states), then he's a prime candidate for the state legislature. To have Howard Dean's group endorse him (the only such Utah endorsement) is excellent.

    Also, I'm going to be in the West Jordan 4th of July Parade helping WJ mayoral candidate Dirk Burton (who I've mentioned before), it's been a lot of fun (though not much work) helping his campaign, and I've been able to sneak some subtle multiculturalist messages into his campaign (paraphrasing, but things like "wouldn't it be great if West Jordan had it's own identity, and we had a more interesting community personality? More diversity even?"

    Fun stuff.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 04:05:48 PM PDT

  •  Jesus is that web auto-tune shit offensive (0+ / 0-)

    how ridiculously sexist and terribly awful period.

    "Let's take a woman saying her name and auto-tune it 40 times!" "Oh no she looks like a woman, let's highlight that!"

    This video was the equivalent of Republican staffers masturbating to a Louie Gohmert statement.

  •  I hope David will indulge an off-topic question: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, James Allen

    Anyone have exciting July 4th plans?

    I suppose you could give the CD where you will be to keep the answer DKE kosher.

    For myself, I may well stick around in PA-02. Thinking of making a visit back to what is now NY-10.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 06:25:10 PM PDT

  •  VA Lt. Gov (8+ / 0-)

    You're one to talk bro:

    The Republican candidate for lieutenant governor of Virginia, E.W. Jackson, appears to be trying a “I’m rubber, you’re glue” defense against Democrats who have attacked him for past controversial statements on abortion and LGBT rights.

    In an email fundraising pitch, Jackson says his Democratic opponent Ralph Northam is “running on divisive social issues” and that he “wants to prevent women from having safer access to health care by relaxing safety standards on abortion clinics!”

    “With an extremist focus like this — how can we trust Ralph Northam to be Lieutenant Governor,” Jackson writes.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

    All I can say is GO RALPH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 07:35:15 PM PDT

  •  I like chicken, I like liver (8+ / 0-)

    The Senate Conservatives Fund is urging Sen. McConnell to retire rather than face Secy. Grimes for reelection. Story here.

    Matt Hoskins, the Senate Conservatives Fund's executive director, told the Washington Post Tuesday that McConnell isn't a strong enough candidate to face off against Grimes and that it may be time for him to "pass the torch."

    “Mitch McConnell is now the least electable Republican senator running for reelection in 2014,” Hoskins said. "He could lose this race and cost Republicans the majority. He needs to consider whether it might be time to hang it up.”

    Man, I have so needed a massive hit of cat fud, and this is an injection of Meow Mix straight to the heart.
  •  David Nir - (0+ / 0-)

    Worse than demon sheep.
    Much worse.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site