WTF Texas?!?!?!
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's new Texas poll finds that Wendy Davis made a good impression on voters in the state last week- but that Rick Perry has also enhanced his political standing considerably over the last five months, making him tough to beat for reelection.
39% of Texans have a favorable opinion of Davis to 29% with a negative one after her week in the spotlight. Her net favorability is up 14 points from -14 at 15/19 in January. By a 45/40 margin voters say they support her filibuster last week, and by a narrow 44/43 margin they don't think Perry should call another special session. Voters oppose Senate Bill 5 by an 8 point margin, 28/20, although the 52% with no opinion is a reality check on how closely most people follow state politics.
Nevertheless Davis would trail Rick Perry by 14 points in a hypothetical match up, 53/39. While Davis' standing has improved over the last five months so has Perry's. Although he remains unpopular, with 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove, his approval is up a net 8 points from January when he was at a -13 spread (41/54). In addition to his lead over Davis, Perry also leads Julian Castro 50/43, Bill White 50/40, and Annise Parker 52/35. In January he led this quartet of Democrats by an average of 4 points, now he leads them by an average of 12.
The main reason for Perry's improved numbers is enhanced standing with the Republican base, and that's playing out in his primary election numbers too. In January Perry's approval with GOP voters was 68/26, but that's up to 81/16 now. Perry now leads Greg Abbott 46/34 in a hypothetical primary election, up from 41/38 in January. - PPP, 6/2/13
Unbelievable. But PPP might be on to something here. Davis' filibuster, which was the right thing to do, may have had unintended consequences:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Perry hasn’t announced whether he will run for reelection yet. If he decides to pursue a fourth full term, he would do so on the heels of the current abortion fight with renewed credibility among conservative voters who wield major clout in Texas.
Yes, Perry and his Republican colleagues suffered an embarrassing setback last week when Davis, a Democratic state senator, successfully stymied a bill to tighten abortion restrictions. But Perry’s swift call for a new session to reconsider the bill and his provocative rhetoric in recent days has made him the face of the social conservative movement in Texas right now. And the more heat he faces from the left, the better his brand will be on the right. Just ask Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), who survived a 2012 recall attempt and vocal protests a year earlier en route to becoming a conservative hero.
Perry had originally intended to make his 2014 plans known by July 1, but opted to delay because of the special legislative session. A bid for another term may sound like a long-shot; after all, Perry is already the longest serving governor in state history, having taken office late in 2000. And Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) has appeared to be gearing up for a run at the top job, raising money and positioning himself well ahead of a possible bid. - Washington Post, 6/2/13
But the crazy part is Texas Republicans aren't really thrilled about Perry running for another term:
Texans have still had enough of Perry- only 30% want him to seek another term, compared to 60% who think he should step aside. But for now at least it looks like he's strong enough to slip through a primary, and if he's able to do that Texas' Republican lean would likely get him elected to his 4th term.
Abbott still does better than Perry in match ups against all of the Democrats except for Davis. He only leads her 48/40, compared to Perry's 14 point lead. But against Castro (48/34), White (48/36), and Parker (50/31) Abbott's leads exceed Perry's. - PPP, 6/2/13
So Texas Republicans need to figure out if they really want to hold their nose and stick with Perry or risk it and go with Abbott. It's still way to early to tell but I for one would still like to try to make Texas competitive next year. A lot can happen and Perry can always do something incredibly stupid between now and election time to piss off the base. But if the Governor's race is out of our reach, I still say we take a look at the Texas U.S. Senate race where Senator John Cornyn (R. TX) could face the wrath from Latino voters for voting agains the immigration reform bill. OF course the Supreme Court's ruling on Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act doesn't make our job any easier but still. I hope this poll won't discourage Davis or any other Democrat from running.