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Leading Off:
• CO Recall: As expected, the Colorado Secretary of State upheld as legally sufficient the language used in petitions to force recalls of two Democratic state senators last week. The ruling wasn't a surprise, particularly considering that the SoS had approved the petition wording in the first place, though both Angela Giron and John Morse say they plan to continue their challenge in court. But unless a judge issues an injunction, Gov. John Hickenlooper must schedule the recall elections within 60 days, something that could happen as soon as Monday.
If a recall does go forward, Giron, at least, has been outraising her opponents by a considerable margin. New fundraising reports show that Giron has taken in $87,400 this year, compared to about $22,000 for the committee trying to oust her. Morse, meanwhile, has raised $153,000 to date, versus less than $20,000 for his opponents... and speaking of which, there's already some hilarious cat fud flying in and around that camp.
It turns out that one of the two candidates hoping to challenge Morse, Jaxine Bubis, writes erotic fiction under a pseudonym, including such works as "Beantown Heat." (Click the link for the awesome cover.) Bubis's work was publicized by a gun store owner who just happens to be old buddies with former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin, the other contender—though amusingly, Herpin claims he doesn't want these "revelations" to "be a distraction" from the recall. Both Herpin and Bubis signed an agreement with the local GOP to abide by the party's choice of candidate and drop out if the other is picked, so we'll see if this latest development sways anyone's mind.
P.S. Jeffmd has also calculated last year's presidential election results for each of the two Senate districts targeted in recalls. It actually turns out that Morse's SD-11 is slightly bluer, at 59-38 Obama, versus 58-39 for Giron's SD-03. That's actually the reverse of what we expected, but the drop off in Democratic performance in Morse's district from presidential years to off-years has been larger, so he's probably the more vulnerable of the two.
2Q Fundraising:
• TN-Sen: Sen. Lamar! Alexander (R): $2 mil raised (plus he's spending $150,000 on a new campaign ad about the "Freedom to Fish Act," despite having no primary or general election opponents)
• AZ-09: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema: $400K raised, $550K cash-on-hand
Gubernatorial:
• MN-Gov: State Senate Minority Leader David Hann says he won't join the already-crowded field of Republican hopefuls looking to take on Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton next year. Hann took a stab at running for governor in 2010, but he pulled out long before the GOP chose a nominee.
House:
• CA-25: Physician Lee Rogers, who ran a surprisingly competitive race against GOP Rep. Buck McKeon last year, has announced that he'll seek a rematch in 2014. Despite getting badly outraised, Rogers held McKeon to a 55-45 win, by far the smallest of McKeon's 20-year career. Democrats don't have much of a bench in the area, so Rogers is actually a pretty good get. What's more, McKeon may well retire (he hasn't confirmed he'll seek another term yet), and he ran several points ahead of Mitt Romney, who only won this district 50-48. So while it would still be an uphill fight, an open seat would present a great opportunity for Democrats, and Rogers would be poised to take advantage.
Other Races:
• Seattle Mayor: The primary free-for-all in Seattle's mayoral race is fast approaching (Aug. 6), and two candidates rolled out the first TV ads of the race for the holiday weekend. One is a $60,000 buy from deeply endangered incumbent Mike McGinn, focusing on his role in passing an education levy, and the other is a $24,000 buy from City Councilor Bruce Harrell—probably the least likely of McGinn's three principal opponents to survive the primary—with a cheaply animated montage of McGinn presiding over a city literally falling apart. (David Jarman)
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: Daily Kos Elections community member (and occasional Digest contributor) Xenocrypt takes a deep dive into the demographic changes New York City has experienced over the last decade—illustrated with many multi-colored maps—and finds that quite a lot has actually stayed the same. Xenocrypt concludes that in terms of ethnic makeup, education, and wealth, most neighborhoods haven't shifted all that much, though there are some interesting exceptions, he reports: "Prospect Heights has indeed gotten whiter, Astoria and Harlem have indeed gotten more educated, and Williamsburg and Park Slope have indeed gotten wealthier." Click through for much, much more.
• Fundraising: The May party committee fundraising numbers got lost in the shuffle late last month when the DKE team was busy descending on Netroots Nation, but here they are, better late than never:
Committee |
May Receipts |
May Spent |
Cash-on-Hand |
CoH Change |
Debt |
DCCC |
$6,068,517 |
$5,487,460 |
$10,976,414 |
$581,057 |
$2,125,000 |
NRCC |
$4,696,548 |
$3,981,355 |
$9,461,803 |
$715,194 |
$4,750,000 |
DSCC |
$4,900,000 |
|
$10,000,000 |
$1,400,000 |
$13,800,000* |
NRSC |
$3,600,000 |
|
$7,000,000 |
$0 |
$8,000,000 |
DNC |
$5,864,629 |
$5,219,488 |
$6,037,140 |
$645,141 |
$19,786,251 |
RNC |
$7,502,121 |
$6,470,115 |
$10,821,414 |
$1,032,006 |
$141,839 |
Total Dem |
$16,833,146 |
$10,706,948 |
$27,013,555 |
$2,626,198 |
$35,711,251 |
Total GOP |
$15,798,670 |
$10,451,470 |
$27,283,217 |
$1,747,200 |
$12,891,839 |
The prior month's totals are available here. As has been the case for almost the entire year, the Democrats' Senate and House committees have once again outraised their Republican counterparts, while the RNC continues to beat the DNC. (I wonder if that's a function of Obama's focus on OFA as his chief campaign vehicle, to the detriment of the DNC.) The DCCC also paid down a considerable amount of debt (over $2 million). (Note that the DSCC's debt figure is from April.) Still, overall cash-on-hand remains neck-and-neck.