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8:28 AM PT:
Our new Iowa Senate poll finds Bruce Braley as the clear favorite, leading Republicans by 9-13 points: http://t.co/...
@ppppolls

9:45 AM PT: AK-Sen: Never gonna happen, but we can dream.

9:45 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Bleh.

10:05 AM PT: VA-Gov: Wow. Things only seem to be getting way, way worse for GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell with regard to the whole Star Scientific scandal. Now the Washington Post reports that Star Scientific's CEO, Jonnie Williams, gave $70,000 to a corporation owned by McDonnell, plus another $50,000 directly to McDonnell's wife. Neither transaction was previously disclosed, though there are loopholes in state law that McDonnell is trying to hide behind. It's a little harder to convince the public that technicalities are awesome, but I guess McDonnell has to be more worried about the various federal and state investigations into his acceptance of Williams' largesse than he does about opinion polls.

11:31 AM PT: IA-Sen: The numbers look good for Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa's open-seat Senate race next year, according to PPP's new poll, though both sides have a ways to go in terms of upping their name recognition. Here's how Braley performs against the Republican field:

• 43-34 vs. former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker

• 45-33 vs. state Sen. Joni Ernst

• 44-32 vs. former energy company CEO Mark Jacobs

• 43-31 vs. radio host Sam Clovis

• 45-32 vs. former Chuck Grassley chief-of-staff David Young

We have no trendlines to look at because the last time PPP polled this race, back in February, they tested all the plausible top-tier recruits the GOP hoped they might land. Of course, we all know how that turned out, so this is Braley's first time getting paired with the B Team. Braley's favorables have actually moved up a bit, from 29-24 to 34-24, but that means he still has a lot of people to introduce himself to. That goes doubly so for the Republicans, the best-known of whom is Whitaker, with a favorability rating of just 9-15.

As Tom Jensen notes, a lot of Republican voters are still undecided simply because their candidates are so anonymous, and most of those folks will come home in the end. But in the meantime, all the GOP hopefuls (whose fundraising has been unimpressive so far) have to fight it out with one another in a primary, and perhaps a convention as well, if no candidate gets 35 percent.

Indeed, that possibility grew on Wednesday with Ernst's announcement that she has filed paperwork for a bid and plans to formally launch her campaign next week. Meanwhile, Braley has another year to build up his profile and raise tons of money, an enviable position to be in, especially when you're ahead in the polls.

12:02 PM PT: CO Recall: El Paso County Republicans have selected former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin as their choice to take on state Senate Majority Leader John Morse in the recall election they've been pushing, spurning erotic fiction author Jaxine Bubis. (Both Bubis and Herpin agreed to abide by the results of a straw poll conducted by local GOP leaders.) Morse, meanwhile, has filed a request for an injunction halting the recall with a local court, once again arguing that the language on the petitions circulated against him was legally insufficient. If he's not successful, Gov. John Hickenlooper will soon have to schedule a date for the recall.

12:59 PM PT: CA-31: Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar just secured the endorsement of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, his most prominent establishment backer to date. Feinstein also endorsed Aguilar last cycle, though, and seeing as the DCCC has taken the unusual step of supporting him in the primary, you have to expect other big Dem names to get behind him as well. But I don't think ordinary folks get motivated a whole lot by prominent endorsers, so the real question will be whether the establishment can actually move any votes on Aguilar's behalf, or at least help him raise real money.

1:16 PM PT: FEC: With the Supreme Court's recent ruling that section 3 of the Defense of Marriage Act is illegal, the FEC is likely to start allowing married same-sex couples with only one income to contribute double to candidates, in the same way that opposite-sex couples can. Even more significantly, candidates married to wealthy spouses of the same sex would also be able to self-fund via their partner's bank account. Nathan Gonzales highlights a key example of this in New York's 19th Congressional District, where Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes (worth $700 million) would be free to support his husband, Sean Eldridge, as much as he likes in his race against GOP Rep. Chris Gibson.

But as Gonzales also points out, these expected new rules won't apply nationwide. That's because the FEC will almost certainly defer to each state's definition of marriage, meaning that in the 37 states where same-sex marriage is not permitted, members of same-sex couples will still be treated as individuals. It's yet another example of the unjust, two-tier system that remains in this country, even as great progress continues to be made on the marriage equality front.

1:32 PM PT: ID-02: It looks like the Club for Growth is finally ready to kick off head-hunting season again. Ever on the search for apostates they can purge from the Republican Party, the Club has decided that its first target of the 2014 cycle will be Rep. Mike Simpson, who is plenty conservative but only has a 58 percent lifetime rating on the group's scorecard. In order to oust him, the Club has endorsed local attorney Bryan Smith, who said he raised $147,000 in June alone, a strong start that will only improve if his new backers steer donors his way.

Simpson, though, pulled in $300,000 for the quarter, and he's fended off primary challenges two cycles in a row now. However, Smith is already better-funded than Simpson's past opponents were, and the Club could spend heavily on independent expenditures on Smith's behalf, as it did in 2006 for the ill-fated Bill Sali in Idaho's 1st District. Unfortunately, the Club's meddling here won't yield an opportunity for Democrats, given Sali's one-in-a-million levels of ineptitude and Idaho's extreme redness. But if these hyper-purists want to drive the GOP even further to the right and force Republicans to waste money propping up an otherwise safe incumbent, well, that's their prerogative.

2:07 PM PT: MA-05: Here's an interesting look at the field in the expected special election to replace Senator-elect Ed Markey, mostly focused on state Sen. Will Brownsberger, who holds some decidedly unorthodox views that aren't going to be assets in a Democratic primary. In particular, he actually supports the Citizens United ruling and doesn't think the Keystone XL oil pipeline should be blocked, positions that aren't especially easy to explain on the campaign trail, and which his opponents have staked out opposition to in varying degrees. While everyone else says they oppose CU, it's the varied responses on Keystone (which has labor support) that offer some insight into the different approaches each candidate plans to take.

2:20 PM PT: VA-10: Kinda pathetic. Former Democrat, former Alabamian, and former Rep. Artur Davis, has made it pretty clear that he'd like to return to Congress as a Republican if Frank Wolf retires. To that end, he's leaked some internal polling to the Daily Caller designed to make it seem as though the field to replace Wolf would be wide open in the event Wolf calls it quits. But despite attempts to spin the results as favorable to Artur, you know something's hinky when the writeup doesn't even include his own vote share in a hypothetical kitchen-sink primary. State Sens. Jill Holtzman Vogel and Dick Black supposedly lead with 17 apiece, but the story also fails to mention the pollster's name, so meh.

2:34 PM PT: OH-10: Democrats have landed a candidate to take on GOP Rep. Mike Turner, advertising company owner Russ Gottesman. Judging by 2012 presidential performance, the 10th is the bluest congressional district held by a Republican in Ohio, seeing as Mitt Romney carried it by just a slim 50-48 margin.

On paper, therefore, this would look like a better pickup target than some of the other Ohio seats that Democrats have looked at recently, though an underfunded challenge by Sharen Neuhardt last cycle fell far short (Turner won, 60-37). Gottesman, a first-time candidate, would need to seriously improve on that performance to have a shot, and it's not clear how much of a profile he brings to the race. However, DCCC communications director Jesse Ferguson took note of Gottesman's entry on Twitter, so it's possible DC Dems view him as a recruit with real chops.

2:52 PM PT: MA-Gov: Here's a new potential name in the Democratic gubernatorial campaign mix: Juliette Kayyem, whose resume includes a variety of jobs, chiefly former assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, Boston Globe columnist, and Harvard lecturer. She's also a possible choice of EMILY's List, though Kayyem isn't commenting on the race publicly one way or the other. Politico's Alexander Burns also adds that, according to his sources, Kayyem is unlikely to enter the race if state AG Martha Coakley, who is still weighing her options, gets in herself.

3:58 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: We're used to thinking that, as life expectancies lengthen, America in general is getting older, and Census data generally bears that out ... but Governing magazine puts the spotlight on five places where the data shows that the population is, on average, getting younger. That can be because of international immigration (Honolulu), changes in military deployment (Okaloosa Co., in Florida's Panhandle), or young people moving in for jobs in a booming economy (Washington DC, North Dakota, or Midland/Odessa, TX).

4:43 PM PT: KY-Sen: Despite the fact that she didn't tip him off to her plans in advance, Dem Gov. Steve Beshear says: "I'm going to support Alison Lundergan Grimes for the U.S. Senate in every way that I can and whatever they want me to do, I'm going to be there to do." As Nick Storm explains, there's some long history (not all of it positive) between Beshear and Jerry Lundergan, Grimes's dad and a former state party chair, so it's not surprising that Beshear's not in her inner circle. But as long as everyone is pulling in the same direction here, none of that past matters.

5:06 PM PT: IA-Gov: PPP's new Iowa poll also included some numbers on the gubernatorial race, where GOP Gov. Terry Branstad looks somewhat less dominant for re-election than I might have imagined, though he's still in the driver's seat. Most notably, Branstad's approvals have dropped a bunch since last November, down to 45-46 all the way from 48-36. He still leads all Democratic comers, though:

• 47-42 vs. ex-Gov. Chet Culver

• 47-35 vs. state Sen. Jack Hatch

• 47-33 vs. state Rep. Tyler Olson

• 50-36 vs. state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal

I wouldn't get too excited about that 5-point margin over Culver, who remains unpopular with favorables of just 34-46 and probably has a pretty low ceiling. That string of 47s for Branstad, though, is a bit tempting, assuming this poll isn't overly optimistic for Democrats. If he were to continue on a downward path in terms of job approvals, it's possible Branstad could make this race competitive all by himself. But Democrats don't have any A-list candidates, so with the way things are now, it would be a very hard climb. Still, we'll see what Branstad does.

And in the unlikely event he decides not to seek another term, a race against Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds would start off as tossup. Against this same foursome, she takes anywhere from 36-38 percent, with Culver again topping out at 42 (there's that ceiling again), while Olson is the low man once more at 32. But even though he hasn't formally declared he'll run for re-election, Branstad's been putting together a campaign team and raising money, so odds very much are that he'll be the GOP nominee next year.

5:37 PM PT: SD-Sen: A reader wrote in objecting to my characterization in the previous Digest that "there's been no indication that outside groups have any interest in trying to thwart" ex-Gov. Mike Rounds's establishment-backed bid for the Republican nomination. Conservatives have, of course, made their unhappiness with Rounds's "moderate" record and their preference for an alternative candidate quite clear, but sending out press releases and offering quotes to reporters is easy.

It would be better to say that we haven't seen much serious interest emerge in a real "stop Rounds" effort. That's exemplified by this remark from a Club for Growth spokesperson last month, who said: "We are watching South Dakota's Senate race to see if a pro-growth candidate emerges." Contrast that with their proactive efforts to unseat GOP Rep. Mike Simpson in ID-02 (see bullet below), where they actually held a contest to recruit a candidate, and have already issued an early endorsement.

Of course, things can change. State Sen. Larry Rhoden, who just entered the primary this week and inspired my original comment, could wind up lighting a fire under the likes of the Club and the Senate Conservatives Fund. But the lackadaisical approach these outside groups have demonstrated in South Dakota to date simply hasn't impressed me. Conservative purists are always complaining about establishment candidates, but for every Dick Lugar they derail, there are many more Mark Kirks, Heather Wilsons, and Rick Bergs who prevail in spite of their wishes.

As I say, I'm not writing off the possibility that a concerted effort could stop Rounds. But if the Club for Growth and its allies are taking a wait-and-see approach, that suggests to me that they aren't making an especially aggressive attempt to prevent Rounds from winning the GOP nod—at least, for now.

5:54 PM PT: NYC Comptroller: On behalf of the Wall Street Journal and News 4 New York, Marist quickly jumped into the field right after Eliot Spitzer announced his entry into the New York City comptroller's race, offering the first poll numbers for the Democratic primary. They find Spitzer leading Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer 42-33, though Spitzer's net favorability rating is considerably lower. He stands at 46-35 (an improvement, to be sure, from years past), while Stringer has much more room to grow, at 40-17. It'll be interesting to see what other polls find, though, before concluding too much about where things stand.

6:05 PM PT: 2Q Fundraising:

CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda (D): $345K raised; Ro Khanna (D): $1 mil raised, $1.7 mil cash-on-hand (that's now the second time Khanna's raised a million bucks in a quarter; he did so last cycle as well, when it looked like he might run against Pete Stark)

CA-31: Pete Aguilar (D): $300K raised, $290K cash-on-hand

IA-01: Monica Vernon (D): $104K raised (in three weeks)

NC-Sen: Thom Tillis (R): $300K raised, $250K cash-on-hand (also at the link is news that NRSC staff recently visited North Carolina to look for other recruits; presumably they aren't in love with Tillis)

6:08 PM PT:TN-04: Jim Tracy (R): $303K raised, $656K cash-on-hand (Tracy is challenging GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:00:13 AM PDT

  •  Town in MN has a 4-year old mayor (8+ / 0-)

    What a stinking cute article.

    "Bobby was only 3 when he won election last year as mayor of Dorset (population 22 to 28, depending on whether the minister and his family are in town). "

  •  Thank you for this eloquent description... (7+ / 0-)

    Of all the options the Republican Party of Virginia has to save its bacon in the November elections.

  •  So when is McDonnell going to resign? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    This is really coming to its end I think. (And since the media made a guy who sent some dick pics resign, I am waiting for the media scrutiny to explode on this one.) I really feel like it would be ridiculous if this guy stayed on any longer...

  •  MN-SOS (5+ / 0-)

    Former DFL state rep Jeremy Kalin is in. He used to represent a blood red district in the Chisago/Isanti county area. The successor district is one of the most Republican in the state. He is a bit of an awkward sod, but he would be a strong contended statewide. But I question his ability to get the nomination, as he has no regional power base usually required to get then appropriate delegates.

    http://www.minnpost.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:47:21 AM PDT

    •  isn't there someone else in too (0+ / 0-)

      another DFL state legislator? A few weeks back when we ran the digest we thought of running that story.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:47:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rep. Hilstrom (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, askew

        She hails from Brooklyn Center, which borders Minneapolis to the north.  She was supposed to be Majority Leader but then the rep. I helped elect in college got voted in by her colleagues.  If Hilstrom won, and assuming all other state elected officials win, Minnesota would have a women-majority of statewide elected officials, 4-2.  All DFLers.  :)

      •  Roger Reinert through around the idea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        But he finally said no. The big one, and the likely candidate will be state rep Steve Simon.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:00:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why do you think Simon is likely? (0+ / 0-)

          I agree that he is, but I can't really figure out what makes him the one whose ready to move to statewide from the legislature out of everyone else.

          •  He has expressed interest (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            And its all about geography and power bases. He had the built in rich liberal suburbanite bastion of St. Louis Park from which to fundraise. As well as the Jewish community, who always are looking to help out one of their own. And he is liberal enough to get the support of the urban liberals, particularly in Minneapolis. I just don't see him losing the nomination to someone from outstate, from a prominently minority area, or from the Republican exurbs.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:11:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I love Steve Simon (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          and he has really focused on election issues as a State Rep.  Kalin and Hilstrom have relatively low profiles and Hilstrom has made her name this year by blocking universal background checks in MN.  i think that would hurt her with DFL convention delegates and/or primary voters.

  •  NC: McCrory issues veto threat on abortion bill (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.wral.com/...

    I wonder how the shift to social issues will affect the generic ballot numbers in the next PPP NC poll?

    Last poll was D+7 (48-41). While it is near impossible to win the majority in the legislature, Dems could definitely pick up some seats in both chambers.

    23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

    by liberal intellectual on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:50:11 AM PDT

  •  Morning Fundraising Roundup (4+ / 0-)

    CA-17: Ro Khanna raised a whopping $1 million in Q2 and has $1.7 million cash on hand. Mike Honda has yet to announce his fundraising totals, but if the Q2 results look anything similar to Q1, then I think there's good reason for concern that Khanna is going to flood the airwaves and drown Honda's campaign.

    CA-31: Pete Aguilar raised $300K in Q2 and has about $290K cash on hand. This is a pretty solid quarterly number, and it gives me confidence that he's putting his full effort into this campaign and that he's getting necessary support from the DCCC. It's probably worth noting that in Q1 2012, the only other comparable report that can be found for Aguilar, he raised $222K. Between slightly higher fundraising and getting a much earlier start with stronger institutional support, I think Aguilar is far more poised to win this seat back for us. Eloise Reyes announced on Monday that she raised $200K. Joe Baca, Danny Tillman, and Gary Miller haven't announced their fundraising totals yet.

    TN-04: Republican State Senator Jim Tracy is posting solid fundraising numbers in his effort to beat Scott DesJarlais in the Republican primary. Tracy raised $303K in Q2. Roll Call reports that he's raised nearly $750K since he jumped into the race on January 2, and he had $656K in cash on hand as of June 30. The Republican primary field has already become very crowded, but these are the kinds of numbers Tracy needs to put up if he hopes to beat DesJarlais and the other primary contenders.

    •  Khanna (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MrLiberal

      I'd say his problem isn't and was never going to be money. It's going to be having an issue strong enough to push out a long-term incumbent, which he doesn't have. And avoiding the tag of being an opportunist, which he cannot do.

    •  holy crap to Khanna's take (0+ / 0-)

      I really don't get why people donate such absurd amounts of money to primary challengers for no reason like that.  Looks like he raised $13,000 alone from three Facebook executives.  Is there not a better way they could spend that money?  What exactly is Khanna's appeal over Honda?

      •  It's possible they think he'll be better long-term (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think Honda's done anything to piss them off.  My guess is these execs think Khanna may be more supportive or they may think it's better for them to have a young Congressman who will be around a long time rather than the fairly elderly Honda.  

        Given that Honda and Eshoo are in their early 70s, these executives may be calculating it's better for their interests to have the two members leave around the same time and cost Silicon Valley a lot of seniority.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:28:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's an affinity thing (9+ / 0-)

        Khanna is a part of that world, and that world happens to have a lot of money. Those donors may know very little about Mike Honda, and they may not even care. They're supporting one of their own because he's one of their own, and they don't take into account the kinds of considerations that DKE types take into account when assessing whether to get involved in a race.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:37:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Its worth remembering that (0+ / 0-)

          a 1,500 square foot tract home in part of the South Bay Area will fetch $1,000,000 without anybody so much a batting an eyelash.

          •  That's fucking insanely expensive (0+ / 0-)

            you could get double the square footage here for a 3rd the price. However that's not surprising whatsoever as the Bay Area is easily the nicest part of the country for a highly populated area in my opinion.

            I do agree with David though that most of these people aren't really considering the electoral aspects of the race at all, they just identify with Khanna and Honda is just another "Washingtonite" to them.

            I still think he'll mop the floor with him though, probably 80-20 at least and rightly so.

            •  Electorally it doesn't matter much (0+ / 0-)

              since either Democrat will win easily.  But I think big money spent on primaries would be better spent defeating Republicans, unless one of the Democrats is well out of line with his/her party or otherwise seriously flawed, and that's not the case here.  

              Joe Lieberman in 2006 was one case where big funding for a primary challenger was justified (though the challenger turned out to be a disappointment post-primary), but even then I thought there was too much emphasis on that one race among many progressives when we had to pick up six seats from actual Republicans to win control of the senate.  Which of course we did, with the help of some lucky breaks.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:14:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Top Two, don't forget (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              hankmeister

              The election will include Indies and Republicans.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:04:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Indians are good with giving money, and... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, andgarden, Gygaxian

          ...it's possible a bunch see Ami Bera's win and superficially see Khanna as the next opportunity in a similar situation.  Of course it's not similar at all, but it vaguely looks similar to someone who doesn't really follow politics but is rich.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:09:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  For a fair number of people, $2k is pocket change (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            Or, at least, an amount easy to say yes to when a friend asks for it.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:40:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yup, and Indians are an extended network (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              andgarden

              I would bet that with my own personal friendships among Indian-American Democratic activists, and with all of us in my old group from the 90s now in our 40s and making real money, I probably am no more than one or two degrees of separation from everyone who gives money to major Indian-American candidates.  If I were running, with probably every Desi I call, I can drop a name of someone I know as a mutual connection.

              That plays a big role in the fundraising success.

              It's worth saying simply that Indians are much the same as Jews, politically, except in numbers.  Our numbers are far smaller, but qualitatively, the politics are the same.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:22:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Oh no (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                A) Indian Americans are much more liberal than Jews, and more Democratic as well.

                B) Indian Americans are really analogous to Jewish Americans in size as well (3.2 million v. 5.4 million). And Indian Americans have a much faster growth rate.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:48:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That is not correct (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Stephen Wolf

                  No we are not "more liberal" than Jews.  I don't know how one would even argue that.  It's really about the same.  Jews are pretty damn liberal on everything.  The only sorta kinda exception is Israel if one defines "liberal" as being unhappy with the Israeli right and its government under that leadership, but even there quite a few  American Jews aren't too happy with Netanyahu.

                  And the numbers are not right, the 5.4 million figure is for religiously-observant Jews, it's really anywhere from 6.6 million to 6.8 million when including the enlarged population of cultural Jews who don't identify religiously much or at all.

                  Indians are more like 3.1 million, but non-U.S. citizens are such a large percentage that the voting-eligible population is much smaller.  But non-citizens are allowed to give money, so a lot of green card-holders who are affluent still give contributions.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:59:31 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                    I'll let you speak to the ideological characteristics, but that isn't my impression.

                    But the numbers I posted for Jewish Americans are better. The 6.6-6.8 million figure includes non-Jewish family members of Jews. The 5.4 million includes all Jews whether they are currently observant or not. I.E. the "non-Jewish" portion are those who do not consider themselves Jews, but are related to Jews.

                    Either way, those two respective numbers even with the enlarged Jewish definition are roughly analogous in the overall American ethnic landscape.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:03:56 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't know about more liberal (0+ / 0-)

                    but figures I've seen show Jews voting about 75-78% Democratic, and South Asians more like 85-90%.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:20:41 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  South Asia though includes Bangladesh and (0+ / 0-)

                      Pakistanis who would almost certainly never tell you they're "Indian." I'm not aware of any data that purports to tell you of exclusively immigrants from or descendants from people who originated in the country of India. Plus, while I am furthest from an authority on the subject, I'd imagine there's quite a large gulf between 'Hindu' and 'Muslim' in the country itself such that those whose background came from the two different religions probably wouldn't identify much with each other anyway. That's quite different than Jews who, despite Reform and Orthodox Jews being very different in their religious practices and identity, would still tell you they're Jewish.

                      Essentially what I'm trying to get at is that the data on groups who make up such a small proportion of the data in the United States is going to be drowned out by statistical noise for multiple reasons. Exit polling in particular should be taken with a big grain of salt, especially if it's on minority voting. I basically agree with Cyclone's statement in the light of the fact that both groups in America are going to be very hard to statistically measure as groups let alone as political voting blocks through polling. The essence of his comment was that Indian (I'm assuming Hindu-Indian)-Americans, like Jewish Americans (here probably meaning Reform) are quite a small population block, but would donate to fellow co-ethnics based on identity as the determinant factor rather than it being an ideological one. This makes sense for a variety of backgrounds in the United States too and not just those two mentioned. The point I took from his comment was that they're a small population, relatively (in the American context) cohesive ethnic group.

                      This isn't like EMILY's list contributing to pro-choice Dem Women. Yes part of that is identification (gender) but by and large it's ideology since women are split 50/50 in the broader scheme of things while pro-choice Dems are a minority. The example that jumps out at me immediately is Mormons with Mitt Romney basically winning the 100% threshold for a Republican candidate among Mormon heavy electorates despite that vote not translating at all downballot. I'm sure there are probably better examples.

                      •  I think some of your (0+ / 0-)

                        characterizations are a bit off.

                        But, even accounting for Bangladeshis and Pakistanis being more Democratic than Indians, I still think that would leave Indians being at least as Democratic as Jews, and likely a bit more.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:10:59 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  See, I've seen very conflicting figures (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen

                      There have been exit polls done over many elections in the recent past that show Indian-Americans at roughly 75% Democratic, and other South Asians 5-10 points more Democratic than that (i.e., 80-85%).

                      Then I've seen separate survey results that show what you say, with Indians and/or South Asians broadly well into the 80s or even at 90%.

                      Being a member of "the community" myself, and politically active for many years, my sense is that the lower figures are likely more accurate.  Of course, it's possible I'm missing a stronger Democratic voting behavior among younger voters in the community.  But to really bring up the average, they would have to have sky-high turnout rates and also vote nearly 100% Democratic.  Now, I can picture that maybe 20something Indian-Americans and other South Asians could have voted close to 100% for Obama himself, twice.  But I doubt it's that good downballot.  Obama has a personal appeal and we identify with him on a deep personal level since he's a man of color with a "foreign" dad and has a "funny" name.  But I still think that kind of performance is unlikely.

                      Indians are much closer to Jews than blacks in politics and voting behavior.  There is a larger conservative and GOP minority with brown folk than with black folk.

                      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 05:53:30 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Not sure where you get the "more liberal" notion (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  NMLib, DCCyclone

                  I am sure it varies in certain respects, but, for example, I would be surprised if Indians were more liberal than Jews in marriage equality. There are some loud Jewish dissenters, but that's all they are; loud.

                  If all you do is listen (instead of ask), you might think that most American Jews are tight with Netanyahu on negotiations with the Palestinians. But when you actually ask, you find that American Jews are basically right where they were in the mid-90s: land for peace, two state solution, etc.

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:59:50 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Despite the fact that on average (0+ / 0-)

                    Jewish Americans might be pretty liberal, there is a substantial subgroup that is conservative (read: orthodox Jews). We can't just write them off as if they don't exist. They do. After all, McCain and Romney ran whacko conservative campaigns and they still got 22% and 32% of the Jewish vote each.

                    The number of Indian Americans that McCain and Romney got was negligible. They are more Democratic than are African Americans. In many respects, that also translates into liberalism as defined by most Americans. Indian American public opinion on things such as education and the environment is significantly to the left of the American mainstream. This is true on practically every issue, save for perhaps marriage equality, that Jewish Americans are to the left of the American mainstream on.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:07:35 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Write them off, no? (0+ / 0-)

                      The percentage number from the exit polls is frankly, not credible, at least in terms of change.

                      I don't dispute that American Indians are quite liberal. But I do dispute that Jews are not. To any measurable degree, they go about as far right as Joe Lieberman. And he is no liberal, but still.

                      Ok, so I read the polls.

                      by andgarden on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:15:22 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Oh no no no (0+ / 0-)

                        I never said that Jews weren't liberal. They mostly are. But there are also many conservative Jews - and many who are more conservative than Lieberman (who is definitely not the furthest right Jewish person in the country).

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:18:05 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Just to illustrate: (0+ / 0-)

                        Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions in dealing with the following issues:

                        . . .

                        10B. Economy
                        36% Republican Party 62% Democratic Party 2% No Response

                        10C. Health Care
                        32% Republican Party 66% Democratic Party 2% No Response

                        10G. Taxes
                        35% Republican Party 63% Democratic Party 2% No Response

                        10J. Chuch-State Issues
                        22% Republican Party 74% Democratic Party 3% No Response

                        10K. Abortion
                        16% Republican Party 81% Democratic Party 2% No Response

                        You can cherry pick some other numbers that show American Jews in a slightly less liberal light. But really, what group of Americans will give answers much more liberal than that?

                        Ok, so I read the polls.

                        by andgarden on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:18:59 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  There are more conservative South Asians than... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      R30A, NMLib

                      ...you think.

                      As I commented above, the polling is conflicting.

                      But being in the community myself, I can tell you there is a significant GOP/conservative minority within it.  Some of it is economics, since Indian-Americans are higher income than whites and other minorities, so there's a self-interest component.  And then there's a culturally conservative component, held mostly by immigrants (but that dissolves among their American-raised children and grandchildren).  India itself, after all, is too much a sexist, misogynistic, homophobic, and religiously bigoted (mostly toward Muslims) culture.  Some immigrants bring that with them to America.

                      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 08:28:13 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Something like less than 10% of Jews (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      andgarden

                      Are Orthodox. Of course, they are growing far faster (I'd guess the ranks of non-Orthodox Jews are only shrinking, sigh), but they are still a small minority.

                      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                      by David Nir on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 01:22:19 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Much more liberal than Jews? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  andgarden, sapelcovits

                  Even if a group is more liberal than Jews (and there aren't many), it's pretty damn hard to imagine anyone being much more liberal.

                  Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                  by David Nir on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 01:18:14 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Khanna raised ridiculous money (0+ / 0-)

            even before Bera's victory though.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:11:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  CA-17: You can't flood the airwaves (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, Stephen Wolf, hankmeister

      Bay Area political races aren't fought on the airwaves; they're fought on the ground. The market's reach is too broad and too expensive for that to be worthwhile. It's more possible on cable and on ethnic television, but even then it's really expensive and one or two meeeeeellions aren't going to be nearly enough. The ground campaign will determine almost everything.

      Also, CA-17 is the first majority-Asian congressional district outside of Hawaii. From my experience with the Chinese-language media here, ethnic media is extraordinarily influential and can move a lot of votes votes not just by endorsement, but also by how they mention a candidate's mere existence. For example, they can constantly splash their favored candidate on the front page every single day and bury the other in a one-liner deep in the metro section. Since Honda has cultivated at least the Chinese-language media for a long time now, they're going to root for him even though he's not Chinese.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:18:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only somewhat relevant question. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kurykh

        Is the first language of Chinese people in the Bay Area, or CA-17 in particular, English?

        •  It depends (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jeffmd, Audrid, jncca, Taget

          First-generation immigrants themselves will speak Chinese (Cantonese or Mandarin, the two most common varieties in California). English isn't their strong suit, so they'll use enough of it to get around but at home will invariably use their native language.

          From second-generation onward (aka those who were born in America), it depends. All will speak English, but their fluency in Chinese depends on whether their family makes acquiring Chinese a priority. It used to be less emphasized or discouraged, but with the recent rise of Taiwan and China it's now seen as more important). Many second-generation couples will speak English, since most initial interaction is in English and code-switching in the middle of a relationship isn't the most natural thing in the world to do.

          For example, I'm second-generation Chinese American (born to immigrants from Guangdong province). English is my best language by far and I use it in the outside world, but I speak only Cantonese at home to my parents and relatives (speaking English to them actually feels unnatural). I learned Mandarin in school for six years, for what it's worth. I know some written Chinese, but not enough to read a newspaper without a dictionary.

          For my fellow Chinese American friends, they speak Chinese to varying levels for fluency. Some speak no Chinese at all, while others speak better than some natives. Most fall in some continuum in between. But I invariably speak English with them except for very few circumstances.

          In the Bay Area, both Cantonese and Mandarin are prevalent in different areas. In San Francisco and nearby, Cantonese dominates by far given the historic presence of a Cantonese-speaking (more accurately, Toisanese) community. In the South Bay where CA-17 is located, Mandarin, especially Taiwanese Mandarin (distinct from mainland Mandarin), is dominant given the large Taiwanese community there that came during the rise of Silicon Valley.

          With interacting with the broader Chinese-language community, it really depends. Casual interactions use whatever language is comfortable for the conversing parties. More formal situations, especially those that potentially involve non-Chinese speakers, will use English. Political events invariably use English unless it caters specifically to Chinese speakers. It's just important to know that English is the lingua franca in America, and when in doubt, use English and nothing will go wrong.

          Chinese-language media typically caters to first-generation immigrants, where ethnic bloc voting is most powerful and effective. That's why in the Bay Area, which has a lot of Chinese-speaking immigrants, Chinese media is so powerful and cultivating them is so important. Every Bay Area political district from San Francisco southward has a significant Chinese-speaking population. Chinese-language media is also noticeably biased when it comes to candidates and certain issues, so it's important to get them biased in your favor.

          Sorry, it's a long reply. The answer to your question is hidden somewhere in there.

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:15:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think the Chinese-language media... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Audrid, kurykh

            in the DC area can play a similar role. They were extremely negative on George Allen back in 2006 after the whole macaca incident, and I wouldn't be surprised if that moved at least some votes.

            (Unrelatedly, how was the process of learning Mandarin for you as a Cantonese-speaker? I'm considering doing the reverse -- I spent a few days in Hong Kong, where everyone assumed I spoke Cantonese even though I don't.)

            Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

            by jeffmd on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:54:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It shouldn't be too difficult. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              kurykh, gabjoh

              I picked up a little Hainanese when I was a kid just by talking to my grandmother.

            •  Knowing Cantonese helped a lot (0+ / 0-)

              Since I was relatively fluent in Cantonese, I picked up vocabulary and understood some distinctions much more easily than others. But it did get in the way. Certain grammatical structures and words permissible in Cantonese are forbidden in Mandarin, so unlearning that was difficult.

              For those who are unaware, Cantonese and Mandarin are mutually unintelligible. Linguistically they're different languages, but they're considered dialects and varieties for sociopolitical reasons.

              Learning Cantonese is more difficult than learning Mandarin. Cantonese has six to nine tones while Mandarin has four to five. It has more consonants and preserved a lot of things Mandarin lost. Knowing Mandarin makes learning formal Cantonese easier, since they share the same vocabulary, but "street Cantonese" might take a while.

              23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

              by kurykh on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:53:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  American Chinese is written in 繁体 right? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kurykh

            Singapore teaches 简体.

            •  It depends on where you are. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              kurykh, Audrid

              Probably dependent on the area where the person from whom you're learning Chinese is from (or the backgrounds of the people from whom they learned Chinese, etc.).

              I learned Chinese from mainlanders, so I learned simplified. Other people who learned from people with Taiwanese or HK backgrounds learned traditional.

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

              by jeffmd on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:16:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Traditional characters (繁体) is the norm (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Audrid, jeffmd, Taget

              Using simplified characters (简体) generally tags a person as someone from mainland China, whether it's true or not. Using simplified is perfectly fine, but one rarely sees on business signs, government notices, or other formal correspondence unless you're dealing with the Chinese consulate. It's hard to chalk it up as anti-mainlander sentiment: I only know of two businesses that used simplified characters on their signs, but they don't get much business because they sell cheap kitchen appliances, not for their signage.

              Chinese-language media in the Bay Area is almost entirely traditional characters. There's only one free weekly that's in simplified, and from what I heard it's not worth reading.

              At school (I took Mandarin Chinese as a foreign language), I had to learn both at the same time. On tests, I was allowed to use whichever one I liked, as long as I was consistent. Personally, I like reading traditional and write simplified (when I write for family) because I'm lazy, but I can work with either.

              23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

              by kurykh on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:13:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  how is Taiwanese Mandarin (0+ / 0-)

            different from Beijing Mandarin (aside from simplified vs. traditional)? is it just like US English vs. UK English or is there a greater difference?

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:20:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think that's about right. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Taget

              The impression that I got while in Taipei was that there's slightly different vocabulary/usage (and slang especially), and also some larger differences in pronunciation (the tones, especially).

              I think that's likely from the Hakka/Hokkien influence present in Taiwan. (Then again, my own Mandarin pronunciation is rather Shanghai-accented.)

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

              by jeffmd on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:36:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  differences in tones sound frustrating. (0+ / 0-)

                I'm considering visiting this winter, and though if I visit I will be with my ex-boyfriend (who is from Taipei) I'd still like to practice a little Mandarin on my own too. but I have trouble enough with the tones in putonghua, let alone different tones.

                Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                by sapelcovits on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 01:38:21 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I've never been to Taiwan (0+ / 0-)

                  but from what I know they seem to speak and understand Mandarin just fine, except their "sh" sounds like "s" and some other pronunciation differences. I think jeffmd is talking about Taiwanese Hokkien, not Taiwanese Mandarin; that's a completely different story.

                  23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                  by kurykh on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 01:46:30 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  thanks for this list of polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    where Barbara Buono isn't getting blown out by huge margins. unfortunately, today's Q poll is no different: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    the good news - gay marriage is at 60% support. at least the voters of NJ are smarter than the man they seem to be in love with.

    speaking of which, there are now lawsuits asking for marriage equality in PA, VA, and NC in addition to the pre-existing ones in NJ, IL, MI, and NV. interestingly the PA lawsuit was filed in federal court even though the state's constitution doesn't ban gay marriage.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:18:27 AM PDT

    •  Indiana would be a good idea (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IndianaProgressive, lordpet8

      Given the news yesterday that they might face jail-time if they applied for a marriage license. Find a rich lesbian couple who are the perfect image of an American couple (except, ofcourse, for their genders), have them apply for a marriage license in a particularly Republican area of the state, and work covertly behind the scenes to have them prosecuted.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:23:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If this becomes more than a passing news story (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, HoosierD42

        I think it could be the worst thing that could happen to those pushing for this to be passed/included in the Indiana State Constitution.  I don't think most Hoosiers want to see people prosecuted for applying for a marriage license.  And even the vast majority of conservatives here don't want to see clergy members gone after by the state for doing what they want to in their churches and temples.

        It's going to be very interesting to see how the marriage amendment debate plays out here, if it does for sure go on the ballot.  I know the business community here is going to go all-in against it.

    •  At least a lonely landslide (0+ / 0-)

      appears to be in the offing, according to Quin, with voters preferring Christie get a Democratic legislature over a Republican one by a margin of 51-36, and only 20% of voters saying the governor's support would make them more likely to support a legislative candidate and 15% less so (a large majority said it made no difference.)

      Oddly, if Buono were to be elected voters were split nearly evenly on which party they wanted to have legislative control (43D-41R).  Does New Jersey have a lot of deliberate ticket splitters?

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:59:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've looked at the PA complaint; it's pretty solid (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, sapelcovits, AUBoy2007

      Complaint is here.

      The ACLU-PA's law firm for this is Hangley Aronchick. They are good at what they do. Aronchick himself signed the complaint, for what it's worth (he will be taken seriously).

      As to your particular comment on the suit, I agree that the Plaintiffs could have stated a claim under the PA Constitution. But having thought about it, I think they were wise not to try. Here's my reasoning:

      First, the jurisdiction of a Federal court has to be invoked under Federal law in a case like this (i.e., on the basis of 28 USC § 1331 under 42 USC § 1983 (civil rights) and ultimately the Fourteenth Amendment /LawWonk). You can't sue your own state exclusively for a violation of state law in Federal court (PA Supreme Court has an R majority, so they want to be in Federal court). That doesn't stop the Plaintiffs from including a count or three under PA law, but, again, those claims can't survive on their own. So in short, the Federal claims are the whole case here. Federal Judges really just aren't going to decide a case of this nature on a question of unsettled state Constitutional law. (Interestingly, the PA Rules of Civil Procedure allow a case to be "transferred" from Federal court to state court. But then, they could have filed in state court in the first place. And they didn't want to do that.)

      Also, and I think this one is even more important, who wants to tempt the (also R majority) PA General Assembly to put a marriage amendment on the statewide ballot? They would have to pass it again after an election, but we really just don't want to go there right now.  

      As to the substance of the complaint, I have a an opinion there too! First, as I said, I think it's mostly on target. I like that Count III alleges discrimination on the basis of sex. Justice Kennedy made clear at oral argument for Hollingsworth v. Perry that this is a difficult question for him; I think it is the critical one. Paragraph 156 basically says it all. That said, I think it should be Count I. One other complaint on the substance is that in Counts I and II, the plaintiffs should not negotiate against themselves by merely asking for the court to apply "heightened" scrutiny. A violation of a recognized fundamental right under the due process clause (and the right to marry is recognized) should trigger strict scrutiny. I agree that Pennsylvania's marriage ban cannot survive under any level of scrutiny, but that ought to be pled in the alternative IMNSHO.

      (DISCLAIMER: (1) THIS IS NOT LEGAL ADVICE. (2) I AM NOT YOUR LAWYER.)    

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 04:58:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Gov: Martha Coakley hasn't decided on running (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ArkDem14
    Coakley, who grew up in North Adams, told a couple of reporters that her options "do include governor."
    http://www.masslive.com/...

    I expected an announcement this afternoon, but it might be a while longer, if ever.

  •  I should have my state senate diary out soon (6+ / 0-)

    just one more thing to do, probably do it tonight.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:56:56 AM PDT

  •  Great explanation of Sarah Palin's relevancy. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ehstronghold, bythesea

    For the record, I'd give her no more than 30% in a primary and no more than 45% in a general election.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:00:01 AM PDT

  •  I dropped by RRH (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    and I love how they thank it's hilarious that Democrats are trying to make Texas competive w/ BGTX and mocking them. They link this Politico story in their round up yesterday, trying to claim that Latinos are pro life. Last time I check I thought majority of Latinos were liberal on social issues?

    I'll just let them morons whistle pass the grave.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:03:29 AM PDT

    •  I'm pretty sure RRH is a plant by Kos/David Nir (11+ / 0-)

      To make us all grateful for DailyKos and DKE.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:12:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hahaha, it sort of is a plant by David Nir (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andgarden

        He suggested those GOPers make their own site because they were mucking SSP with their "non-partisan" nonsense.

        •  No (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          That's not precisely it, IIRC. He suggested they make their own site when we transitioned to DKE because most of them did not want to transition as well.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:11:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, I don't think that's right (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, wwmiv, abgin

            I'm pretty sure David's discussions with the guys who founded RRH started before the Daily Kos move was in the works.  The timing ended up not too far apart, that's true, but I don't think there was cause-effect.  I think Andrew is right that the original motivation was to give Rs a place to play after quite a few were mucking up SSP in 2010.  Then David got the opportunity from Markos, so it became even more fortuitous for the GOPers on SSP to have their own site.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:15:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Some of their comments are intelligent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      and some are ridiculous.  Look through their archives at all the nonsense that some of them spouted last year about Obama and the Democrats' impending rout.

      Oh, and the "Bold Progressive" mockery, if it ever was funny, is really getting old.  Of course, they could be alluding to those such as some of the Daily Kos front pagers, not the Daily Kos Elections regulars.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:18:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually (6+ / 0-)

      Hispanics mirror white voters in terms of social conservatism. Hispanics are largely devout Catholics, and a good portion of them are truly strongly pro-life. Where the real disconnect between Hispanics and Republicans is the Catholicism also extends to a lot of socialist tendencies, and helping the poor, etc. Honestly abortion is not a winning issue with Hispanics, particularly in Texas, where Hispanics are much more inclined to vote Republican than they are in places like Colorado or Nevada.

      And really, I can see their point about Texas not trending blue. Because frankly it isn't. I don't like the mockery, but if the roles were reversed, I would mock them in the same situation too. This is the same as when whey claim that Michigan will be a red state soon. The election data simply does not back it up, no matter how you want to twist and extrapolate the demographic data. If they were real trends, it would at least show up a little bit at the ballot box. Until then, its wishful thinking, on both sides.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:34:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Basically yes (6+ / 0-)

        Hispanics are more liberal than the rest of the population, except on abortion where they are slightly more conservative.

        http://www.pewhispanic.org/...

        The biggest problem for Republicans, though, is that it is only the older Hispanic voting blocs that are conservative on this issue (30+ matching their overall numbers and 50+ beating them). Even worse is that within generational blocs the only group which is actually pro-life are immigrants themselves (G1). The second and third generations are the same as the rest of the population.

        What does this mean? This means that - as immigration from Latin America slows down (and even reverses in some situations) and generational cohort replacement advances - Republicans will have less and less ability to appeal to Hispanics on the sole issue which they have to appeal to them with (abortion) as time goes on.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:46:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  In a generation, this well may be true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KyleinWA, MrLiberal

          But 25-30 years is an absurd about of time in political worlds. These aren't changes we will Sir in 2014, or 2020. If someone could look at the political world 30 years ago and could predict anything about modern political alignment, I'd call them a liar or a psychic. 30 years ago, Reagan was coming off a stinging midterm defeat. Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia were the most Democratic states in the country. Vermont was reliably Republican. And Illinois and California were seen as pivotal swing states. I am not gonna salivate over small generational differences among one state's minority population come 2040, because so much will change between now and then, it likely won't matter at all, as other factors will change the battlefield again and again.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:00:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This wasn't Texas only (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            It was nation wide, and given that the vast majority of Hispanics are young the change should be relatively swift (I.E. a 10 year horizon, not 25-30) which isn't that far removed from our current dynamic. Additionally, demographics themselves very rarely change (there are ofcourse examples of large and swift change among certain subsections, but they are quite rare). Instead, what has driven change within the country has been what groups are growing, which are stagnant, and which are shrinking. The mix of the groups from one time period to another is what causes the change.

            *demographics here includes what is known as intersectionalities between race, ethnicity, age, gender, sexuality, socioeconomic status, education, among others.

            A single cohort, such as what we'd currently call young Hispanics, are likely to remain much the same ideologically and partisanly as they currently are.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:03:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  To be fair... (0+ / 0-)

            I don't think the next 30 years will be as unpredictable as the last 30. Most voters are voting straight-ticket, and the trends have been pretty effectively predicted by demographics. The Republicans may adapt enough to become more competitive in the swing states (which may be somewhat different than today's swing states), but I doubt we'll see radical changes in the electoral map.

            •  The last 30 years were predicatable, and the next (0+ / 0-)

              30 years should be thoroughly predictable.

              The map is relatively stable, with Latino population growth impacting a handful of states over the next decades.  Also, the impact of conservative libertarianism should help make tolerance more tolerable over the next generation, which will be good for the tolerance party and not good for the intolerance party.

              The one wild card is technology.  If a clean energy solution presents itself and is adopted by a critical mass, the Appalachian areas may trend back with working class areas in the rest of the country.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:25:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  The last 30 years were pretty predictable (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MrLiberal, ArkDem14

            Didn't someone actually predict them, in The Emerging Republican Majority?

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:53:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Astonishingly inaccurate assertion (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, HoosierD42, wwmiv

            The political realignment of the past 30 years was not only easy to predict, it was almost impossible not to predict.

            Legit pundits easily saw see the basics at the time...

            - the Reagan democrat phenomenon of Appalachia
            - the death of big government nanny liberalism
            - the rise of the technocrat Dem
            - the hardening of part of the Kevin Phillips map: Dems in the north, GOP in the south

            Most of the non-anticipated changes make sense given the obvious things: Paulism, Midwestern and western blue-ing in reaction to the Confederacy shaping the GOP ideology, same with the hardening of minority/Latino dem preferences

            I know it is hard for people under 30 to get, but 25 years is nothing in a political environment.  And what is happening today is directly and coherently follows from the 1984 election, when a bad political philosophy died and the winning one lead to the development of a counterbalancing view of the majority of the people.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:18:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The beginning of your last paragraph... (9+ / 0-)

              ...is something I see almost never recognized or acknowledged in political commentary, and yet is so true.

              There is no sense of history, no sense of political time.  Political commentaries see today, next week, the next general election, the next Presidential election, and that's about it.  There is commentary these days on demographic shift, but really no sense of how that plays out.

              I look at the GOP House and see something that easily could last through the decade, but then the next re-map combined with continuing demographic shift kills them.  I see the 2020s as a progressive era that Obama will envy, just as Bill Clinton envies the national environment Obama has which is to the left of the 90s (even though the GOP is to the right of where they were in the 90s).  The big thing is that to me, this is not a long time to wait.  That's something that I've come to internalize only with time and age, being middle-aged now.  Events 20 years ago seem not long ago to me, so waiting another decade for some more positive changes doesn't feel unbearable.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:26:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  If you look at Hispanics by religion (0+ / 0-)

        the main place the GOP has been able to have a descent showing is among Hispanic Protestants.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:02:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hispanics don't mirror whites on social issues (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, Stephen Wolf, wwmiv, askew, JBraden, abgin

        They're a bit to the left of whites, a variety of polling confirms this.  On abortion they mirror the country as a whole, not whites.  On other cultural issues, they're to the left of whites, sometimes a little, sometimes a lot.  Of course, racial and ethnic issues are among "cultural" issues, and on those they are waaaaay to the left of whites.

        The GOP is in deep trouble partly because Hispanics don't share their social conservatism.  That's a fiction the GOP foolishly clings to.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:21:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly... (6+ / 0-)

          I think it's based in the fiction that Catholics in general are more socially conservative than they actually are.

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 27 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:44:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think that's right (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, NMLib, skibum59, JBraden, abgin

            White Catholics are markedly and consistently more Democratic than white Protestants.  And Hispanic Catholics even more so.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:49:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, KingofSpades, jncca, JBraden, abgin

              It's the abortion issue alone that fools conservatives into thinking they can make inroads with these voters. It's a fool's errand.

              They are more liberal on gays, they are more liberal on minority rights, they are more liberal on the death penalty, they are more liberal on drugs, they are more liberal on social justice, they are more liberal on the environment. They are more liberal than the population at large on almost every single issue that has a "social" aspect to it.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:55:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  If I'm not mistaken they're also more liberal (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                NMLib, gabjoh, skibum59, abgin

                than Protestants on abortion too. It's just that people of all non-Catholic/Protestant Christian religions tend to be waay more liberal on abortion because their number is heavily made up of Jews, Atheists, etc.

                Even then, you have so many Catholic Democrats in places that would never ever vote for a social conservative such as almost every big city in the rust belt/north east that those numbers are almost irrelevant if you're talking about relative strength. A similar sentiment might be said for less socially conservative evangelicals in the South. Their views are politically irrelevant. The rare exception is someone like Mike Doyle, but that's in a region where Catholicism and anti-choice sentiment is probably at the highest compared to the relative opposing party strength. Even so, I bet PA-14 could easily support a pro-choice Rep in a primary.

                •  That's about right... (0+ / 0-)

                  There's too much conflation about what the church leadership believes and what the rank and file believe. Of course, as long as the media continue to have idiots like Bill Donahue speak on behalf of all Catholics everywhere, then I don't see that myth disappearing anytime soon...

                  Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 27 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                  by NMLib on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:07:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  You should stop by more often! (0+ / 0-)

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:45:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP-IA: Braley up 9-13, Branstad 5-14 (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Whitaker strongest R, Culver strongest D.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:19:41 AM PDT

  •  If you haven't got Magna Carta Holy Grail yet (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    clevelandpacha, RVKU

    I suggest you go get that. For any who listen to Hov or rap music.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:44:23 AM PDT

  •  Update to my diary on gerrymandering (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Skaje

    and nonpartisan redistricting nationwide

    Drawing a non-partisan Alabama and Louisiana without a 2nd VRA district. Surprise! Democrats still get a 2nd district with ease.

  •  de Blasio arrested in protest over hospital close (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MrLiberal, nonsensoleum

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    This looks like one of those planned arrests a lot of protesters do (members of Congress did this a bit in front of the Sudanese embassy a few years ago over Darfur).  

    Given that his poll numbers aren't great, wonder if something fairly dramatic like this could give him a little shot-in-the-arm.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:21:01 AM PDT

  •  Here's (0+ / 0-)

    a question for all you? What are the chances in our lifetime will we see California become a "GOP free zone" i.e. the entire congressional delegation is made up of Democrats.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:25:51 AM PDT

    •  I doubt it'll happen (4+ / 0-)

      Large areas of rural northern California are very white and very conservative.  It'll be a long time if ever before they ever trend our way barring some massive changes in voting patterns.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:30:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed -- doubt it will happen (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, Zack from the SFV, jncca

      As Darth Jeff said, there are rural areas (and I would add too many suburban ones) that will support this Republican party for the forseeable future.  Also, who knows what the GOP is going to look like 20 years from now.

    •  Zero (3+ / 0-)

      With 53 seats currently, and who knows how many in the future, it seems impossible to get to the point of denying them even one out of 53+; there will probably always be enough Republican enclaves to make up at least a few districts.  

      Perhaps the mother of all gerrymanders could accomplish that, but the current commission redistricting structure precludes that, and even without that ethnic, territorial, and geographic concerns would prevent such a map from becoming reality.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:34:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think your point is the best (0+ / 0-)

        A state with 53 seats is really hard to draw as a shutout.

        It's quite stunning that NY Dems got so close to a shutout after 2008, with a 27-2 majority.  And the two remaining GOP seats weren't completely safe at all times.  That's as close to a shutout I can imagine any large state ever getting.  With California having almost double the seats of New York, forget it.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:30:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Outside of patches of Long Island and Brooklyn (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Skaje, DCCyclone, NMLib, JBraden

          there just isn't really much of New York state that is both populous and deeply conservative so any effort to draw congressional seats that's A) predicated on Republicans being able to hold down seats that shifted under them like in 2006/2008, or B) a court-drawn map, you're going to be hard pressed to get more than one or two very conservative seats.

          California on the other hand has some very deeply conservative areas that are more than enough population for not one but multiple congressional districts and are lily white on top of it an unlikely to see a drastic wave of change. That's what makes all the difference despite both seeing Obama win in the low 60s both times.

          If every seat in New York were open last year we'd be competitive in all but one, the 27th. If every seat in California had been open we wouldn't have even been competitive in all of the ones we lost except the 31st, 25th, and maybe the 39th and 49th. That's still 8/53 minimum where the GOP has locked down, four times their New York number.

    •  GOP-free, unlikely (0+ / 0-)

      Like an inverted Alabama, OTOH, is not all that improbable. I reckon getting 90% of the state's seats ought to be possible by the end of the decade, considering the death spiral of the Republican Party in this state, and the utter implacability of the people who own it to accept any sort of moderation.

      •  There are 7 GOP seats without that many Hispanics (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        LaMalfa, McClintock, Hunter, Rohrabacher, Campbell, Calvert, and Cook all have very solid seats.  So those will be Safe R all decade.  And McCarthy and Nunes are very safe too, despite all their Hispanic constituents.  Issa's seat doesn't have a Dem trend, but is only Lean R.  Royce has a pretty red seat but it's diverse.  McKeon's should be purple by 2016; same with Denham and Valadao of course.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:12:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Royce (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          Royce's seat isn't "pretty red". It's R+4, which is a rapid trend from R+7 04/08. It barely moved for Obama from 08 to 12 with him getting 48.81 and then 48.13, moving from R+5 to R+4 year over year.

          That's actually the same as Issa, by the way, in 08/12 PVI, but with a heck of alot larger Dem trend (Issa's actually trended away from us 08 to 12) and with a more diverse district. I don't think we're likely to beat either incumbent, but when they retire those districts are decent, though certainly not likely, pickup opportunities.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:30:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  R+4 in Orange County, so more like R+6 or R+7 (0+ / 0-)

            downballot.  I'd call that pretty red at this point.  Although fair point on Issa's district being the same; I'd forgotten that.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:41:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Then again... (0+ / 0-)

          The growth in the state is in LA and the SF Bay Area, not the Central Valley and rural country. So after the post-2020 redistricting, I see it as pretty likely that some of those safe guys get drawn together.

        •  Issa's seat may be only Lean R (9+ / 0-)

          but you're obviously not considering what would happen if Tetalman ran again.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:10:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Here is the only scenario I see it (4+ / 0-)

      In theory, if the Supreme Court ruled that the entire Voting Rights Act were unconstitutional, then Democrats could create a map like that.

      http://www.swingstateproject.com/...

      http://www.swingstateproject.com/...

       

      •  wouldn't happen anyway (0+ / 0-)

        Hispanic community would be outraged by being shredded in this manner.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:13:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  not very likely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister

      Even if we waited for the demographic changes to drown out the white conservative vote, I'm sure there will still be plenty of conservative rural enclaves in the CA interior were the GOP can hang on to power. I also I think by then (next 50 years or so) the GOP will have changed politically (realizing they don't want to be in the super minority indefinitely) and become more palatable to voters thus not be completely wiped out of state politics.

      "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:45:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not GOP-free with 53 districts (0+ / 0-)

      Though I could see the delegation ending up something like 42D/11R or 43/10 by the next redistricting.

    •  "The North State" is more like Idaho than it is (0+ / 0-)

      the rest of California.

  •  ID-02: Simpson raises $300K for primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    http://blogs.idahostatesman.com/...

    Mike Simpson, a relative moderate, is facing a Club for Growth backed challenge from lawyer Bryan Smith.  Simpson doesn't seem to be taking it for granted.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:34:16 AM PDT

  •  McConnell domains available (3+ / 0-)

    First time post here. I just noticed that both http://mitchmcconnell.com and http://mitchmcconnell.org are available as domains; I tried emailing Alison Lundergan Grimes's campaign but the email bounced. Somebody should grab them or, I don't know, do something.

  •  From yesterday, HI-Gov (6+ / 0-)

    So state senator David Ige is primarying Gov. Abercrombie next year.  Ige was my old state senator when I was living in Hawaii, and the guy is completely invisible.  I've never heard his name mentioned once for higher office before.  He's a complete backbencher in the state senate, and the reaction I got from family back in Hawaii on this news is "who?"

    Ige's announcement statement was also fairly generic and offers us no real understanding of why he is running.  Needless to say, I believe Abercrombie starts out with a massive advantage over Ige.

    •  I was curious about your read (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, JohnnyBoston

      on the endorsements Hanabusa received last week. Does it mean anything?

      •  It definitely does (9+ / 0-)

        I didn't get a chance to respond at the time (it has been quite a busy week, moving into a new apartment), but I did see that article.  It was quite an eye-popping number of prominent politicians at her event (linking again for those who missed it).  Can't believe Ariyoshi came out of retirement for this.  Ronald Moon is also an oldtime party heavyweight, as is banker Walter Dods.  These are well-known names in local Dem circles, and they have influence far beyond their actual professions (Moon was an ostensibly non-partisan judge on the state Supreme Court, but might as well have been Dem Party chair.  The Hawaii Dem Party tried to change the law on retirement age just for him.)  She also pulled an impressive number of currently elected politicians, like most of the mayors for instance.

        What to take from this is that the Hawaii Dem machine is just about 100% behind Hanabusa, and they view this as an open seat, rather than primarying an incumbent (when they tend to circle the wagons).  Above all else, this demonstrates the success Hanabusa has had over the decades in building these connections and alliances with other party insiders, and they have a great interest in seeing her elected to the Senate.

        Schatz on the other hand had an unorthodox path to the top.  He gave up his seat in the state House for a futile congressional run, then tied himself to Obama and rode that to prominence and then a victory over Robert Bunda (a party insider) for Lieutenant Governor in 2010.  And from that, an appointment to the Senate.

        It's clear to me that the Hawaii Democratic Party is choosing sides, and they are choosing Hanabusa.  Schatz may get a bunch of the unions still, but the party apparatus will be against him.  Schatz will need to heavily court leftwing voters and the environmental groups, which have often been at odds with the party machine.  Schatz will also need to pull the trick of getting Republicans and independents to side with him too as an outsider, despite his extremely leftwing views (Hawaii has open primaries, and the GOP and indies regularly vote in the Dem primary).  In essence, he needs to have aspects of both Ed Case's coalition AND Mazie Hirono's.  It will be a very tough job for him, to pull from both ends of the spectrum like this.  If we are to believe that poll that came out last week (the one showing the race tied, not Hanabusa's internal), Case is starting to do this, with an advantage among both Republicans and liberals, as strange as that sounds.  Hanabusa's job is to keep Case's numbers down among both groups, and ride the oldschool Dem partyline voters down the middle to victory.

        You will notice I left race and ethnicity out of that entire analysis.  One only needs to look at the multi-ethnic list of Hanabusa backers to see that this goes beyond race.  This is about insider vs. outsider, about trusted Dem leader vs. new untested progressive, about waiting your turn vs. jumping in front.  This is also about Hawaii's reliance on seniority to secure pork.  The Dem machine doesn't care about age.  After all, they got Dan Akaka (then 66 years old) appointed senator in 1990, basically assuring that both he and Inouye would leave office at the same time.  They clearly don't mind having two freshmen senators, both over 60 years old, and honestly I don't care either.  It's dumb to think you can build your state's success on seniority and pork.  The question is whether Hawaii's voters agree.

        •  What about using marriage equality (0+ / 0-)

          as a dividing characteristic?  IIRC, Hannabusa was a giant pain in the ass as Senate president over giving same-sex relationships legal recognition, even at the civil union level.

          •  She's been cultivating her relationship (0+ / 0-)

            with the LGBT community since getting into Congress and is now a full supporter of Marriage Equality. I can't see it being a potent or effective attack.

            •  That is correct (0+ / 0-)

              Hanabusa took a bit longer coming around (as many Democrats did), but she finally did, and the issue is no longer salient.

              There's really not much to attack Hanabusa on.  Nor do I think much to attack Schatz on.  Both are party-line Democrats, with differences in style and focus.  I'm curious to see what the attacks ads will even look like.

    •  Is it possible that he's the Inouye "machine" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JohnnyBoston

      candidate?

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:06:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Possible (0+ / 0-)

        But I doubt it.  Ige can't beat Abercrombie, short of the governor doing something really unpopular in the next year that sends him to Tom Corbett levels.  If things continue as is, Abercrombie crushes him.  Ige is little-known in the state.  If the machine were pushing a challenge to Abercrombie, they would have found someone more prominent...someone who could actually win on their own merits.  I'm guessing Ige is doing this on his own, thinking it a good way to raise his profile.  Or maybe he's just upset at the way Abercrombie has governed.

        •  Abercrombie already is quite unpopular (0+ / 0-)

          Civil Beat's poll, released a few days ago, has him underwater (45-48), with Democrats approving only 55/40. Self-described progressives approved only 53-42. If anything, this is a positive outlier for Abercrombie who has been underwater for virtually his entire tenure, usually worse than this.

          Japanese, who are usually identified by pollsters as the premier problem group with Hawaii polling, split roughly even, lending credence to the poll.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:41:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Lets not forget (0+ / 0-)

            PPP found his approval rating as low as 30-56 in 2011.

            In general, he's been consistently in a range of -5 to -10 since his '11 low (and never out of the low forties.) I offered Civil Beat's poll as the latest example, but it also is worth keeping in mind its one of the best score's he's had since his inauguration (which is quite remarkable.)

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:47:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  2011 was two years ago (0+ / 0-)

              And though you may think Civil Beat's recent poll an outlier (really, all Hawaii polling is so doubtful that it may very well be so), I have seen nothing to contradict the idea that Abercrombie has improved his standing to near parity.  45-48 is certainly not good, but as you point out, Democrats approve 55-40.  Those aren't the kinds of numbers that see incumbents lose primaries.

              Take Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania.  If one of the more anonymous GOP state legislators took him on in a primary, what do you think Corbett's chances would be?  I'd still wager good money on Corbett getting renominated.  Such is the difficulty in primarying incumbents, even unpopular ones.  Now, if Rep. Jim Gerlach primaried Corbett, that could get interesting.  But David Ige is no Jim Gerlach.

              Another note: the problems with Hawaii polling are often blamed on Japanese-American voters.  But it's important to note that they are only about 16% of the state population.  The polling errors are so large (regularly 10-20 points off the final numbers) that the problems must go beyond that ethnic group's response rate.

              In any case, Abercrombie might have been vulnerable to a serious primary challenger, like Colleen Hanabusa.  But not to David Ige (who?)

          •  Ige will have to pull off a Tulsi Gabbard (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje

            but in her case, Hannemann is damaged goods to begin with and she had the backing that desperately wanted "anyone but Hannemann." I doubt there's a powerful "anyone but Abercrombie" contingent out there, since the machine's focus seems solely focused on Schatz.

            23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

            by kurykh on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 03:07:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer, sapelcovits

    The biggest question about Christie's sadly inevitable re-election has been at what point in his second term he's going to pull a Romney and swerve hard-right to position himself as a blue-state executive with conservative credentials. I must admit the answer being "seven months before it even starts" surprises me. I must also admit the utter cluelessness of New Jerseyans to this game has surprised me as well.

    I guess Wisconsin is going to be lose the "most gullible gubernatorial electorate" crown this cycle.

  •  Since Sarah would quit after 3 years, what's the (9+ / 0-)

    Alaska method of filling a senate seat?

    "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

    by TofG on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:19:35 AM PDT

  •  Surprise! (3+ / 0-)

    Jindal and his handpicked Education Secretary and press allies are doing their best to spin the miserable failure of his voucher program.

    http://cenlamar.com/...

    I'd definitely recommend reading the article, but the basic gist is that the partial audit found only one out of 107 schools audited (of 117), had misappropriated funds, but that's because most of these schools are just dumping the government money into their general funds, which are in 90% of the cases, church funds. Government money is going to scores of schools run by churches, that reserve the right to reject students based on religion, some that have overcharged the government, and a general lack of accountability that includes spending the money on church projects (maybe even to fund those Church member discounts).

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:29:36 AM PDT

  •  Mid Term Predictions (6+ / 0-)

    Just now reading Monday's comments and saw some really pessimistic predictions. I wanted to give mine.

    SENATE - Democratic Gains
    None (although this changes if Nunn is the nominee vs Broun)

    SENATE - Republican Gains
    South Dakota
    West Virginia
    (Arkansas is right on the fence for me, but I still have hope that Pryor eeks it out by the skin on his back)

    HOUSE - Democratic Gains
    CA-Miller
    CO-Coffman
    FL-Southerland
    IL-Davis
    KY-Barr
    NV-Heck
    NY-Gibson
    NY-Grimm

    HOUSE - Republican Gains
    CA-Peters
    FL-Murphy

    There are other competitive races in AZ, CA, FL, GA, IL, IN, MN, NE, NY, NC, OH, PA, WV & WI that could change this somewhat.

    GOVERNORS - Democratic Gains
    Florida
    Maine
    Michigan
    Pennsylvania
    Virginia

    GOVERNORS - Republican Gains

    Arkansas (very much a tossup, especially if its Hutchinson vs. Ross)

    Score
    Senate: +2 R
    House: +6 D
    Governors: +4 D

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:52:27 AM PDT

    •  Largely in line with my thinking except the House (3+ / 0-)

      where you're a little more optimistic than me. I see us definitely destroying Miller, probably beating Coffman, and Southerland and Davis being tossups. Barr is definitely beatable with a strong candidate, but to beat Gibson, Grimm, Heck in particular, and even Barr we need something to change from what's currently happening, otherwise I think they're all favored. I'm not nearly as down on Peters as those polls were just beyond the pale of believability. There is absolutely no reason why a moderate Democratic incumbent in a D+1 district with a national environment slightly favorable to Dems would be in the upper 30s in polling and DeMaio is not a moderate by any means.

      I had been for a while thinking Murphy would lose, but he's already raised $1 million and doesn't even have a declared opponent yet.

      On the other hand I do agree that Pryor is in for the race of his life though I'd really love to see some more polling here as it's been several months since PPP released that single poll for their client there.

    •  Solid, about where I have it. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, pademocrat

      As for Arkansas, I see Dems mounting a pretty strong ticket.  Ross for Gov., John Burkhalter for LG (conservadem businessman), and now, Nate Steel (State Rep. from Nashville int he SW corner) for A-G: http://www.naturalstatereport.com/...

      I see Patrick Murphy having a helluva hard dance to do to win reelection, but he did luck out when St. Lucie Commissioner Mowery declined to run after all.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:01:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why do people assume Peters is down? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, bythesea, MrLiberal, itskevin, kman23

      I guess I'm not paying that much attention right now, but Obama won CA-52 with 52% of the vote and Peters by a similar margin. That doesn't seem like the type of district we can't hold onto.

    •  Man you all are so bearish on Peters (CA-52) (7+ / 0-)

      If we lose just two House seats in 2014, I seriously doubt Peters is one of them.  I've got him at maybe the 10th most likely loss (meaning I don't think he gets tossed out unless we're losing 9 other Democrats as well).  At least you have to rank McIntyre, Barber, Garcia, and Barrow ahead of him.

    •  I'd trade out Georgia for Kentucky (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, R30A, skibum59

      I think Grimes' odds are better than Nunn's.

      The runoff system in Georgia, for both the primary and general, make me very skeptical of both Broun's chances to win the nomination and Nunn's chances of actually getting elected.  If Georgia didn't have runoffs, I would love this one as an upset possibility for us.  But runoffs kill a minority party in a one-sided state.

      Grimes is more likely to catch lightning in a bottle than Nunn.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:34:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GA-SEN: Michelle Nunn will be at the White House (7+ / 0-)

    on Monday.

    The President and First Lady will be hosting former President George H.W. Bush and members of his family to honor the Points of Light foundation, and the awarding of the 5,000th Daily Point of Light award.

    Nunn is, of course, CEO of the Points of Light Foundation, so not a political event, but who knows, the Senate race might come up in a private conversation.

    link

  •  On symbols and the Democratic Party (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, IndianaProgressive

    I read somewhere that the donkey was not adopted as the official symbol until well into the 20th century.  In the 1920's, Dems' symbol was the rooster (the logo of the Ed Cox presidential campaign).  One state's party kept that symbol, the KY Dem Party: http://www.louisville.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:06:03 AM PDT

    •  James Cox? (4+ / 0-)

      He was the Democratic nominee in 1920, losing to Warren Harding in one of the poorest choices ever by voters (maybe if Teddy Roosevelt had survived and run again things would have been different...)

      The rooster was used in many other states for a long time post-1920s as well.  In Louisiana, French-speaking residents were told for generations to "tapez le coq"-stamp the rooster.  They helped keep the state automatically Democratic for decades--though in 1948 then-Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond pulled off a coup by getting the rooster symbol instead of Harry Truman, and Thurmond won the state.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:10:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Heh, my bad. (0+ / 0-)

        I mixed him up with NY GOPer Ed Cox.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:12:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Eh, Cox was nothing special (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, ArkDem14

        A none-too-liberal governor whose presidential campaign relied on an embrace of the enormously unpopular League of Nations, racebaiting (including some pushing of the rumor that Harding was black), and "law and order" (i.e. imprisoning anyone critical of the war, ignoring civil liberties, deporting radicals, etc.). He wasn't that great a politician, though arguably no Democrat was going to be able to overcome the drag of the positively hated Wilson. And there were more reprehensible candidates running under the Democratic ticket (A. Mitchell Palmer). But it's hard to imagine anyone else losing nearly 2-1, with those kinds of ruinous downballot effects (I believe the entire congressional delegations of NJ and PA went GOP, the GOP got their first Texas congressman, etc.).

        Still, Cox was at least competent, and would have been a better president than Harding. And he gave us FDR. That's something.

        •  All good points (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, KingofSpades, ArkDem14

          I was noting how bad Harding was, not how good Cox would have been; he would have been the better of two in retrospect unsatisfying choices.

          1924 at least had Robert LaFollette who in my estimation stands miles ahead of Calvin Coolidge and John Davis, and Al Smith was very progressive by 1928 standards, though maybe it's best he didn't win and suddenly have the Great Depression land in his lap.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:02:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  given Smith's conduct after his loss (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, Stephen Wolf

            I am glad he didn't win.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:08:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Smith got bitter after 1932 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, David Jarman

              After that was when his lurch to the right began. Basically, Smith felt he was owed the Dem nomination in 1932 and felt (probably rightly) that the public wouldn't care about his Catholicism given what was going on then. Then FDR, his kinda-sorta protege, swooped it up. Then Smith passed on running for Mayor of NYC when it was an open seat because he thought FDR was going to offer him a big job with the Federal government, which ultimately did not happen. So he had to move to the private sector, working for the Empire State Building Corp., with a bunch of right-wing businessmen who convinced him to become quite right-wing.

              It stands to reason, though, that had he won in 1928 or 1932, he would have been a solidly progressive president in the mold of his record as NY Governor. He was every bit as good a politician as FDR, and much as I love FDR, the man's ethics were sometimes slippery while Smith's really weren't.

            •  He ended up endorsing Hoover in 1932 (0+ / 0-)

              Correct?

              •  No (0+ / 0-)

                He campaigned for FDR in fact that year. He did support Alf Landon and Wendell Willkie subsequently though.

                The psychodrama between Smith and FDR is pretty much impenetrable at this point. Both men clearly respected each other's skills and admired each other, though neither one could really stand to be second banana, and Roosevelt definitely was not gracious after defeating Smith (not that Smith would have been either). The personal animus was as big a factor as any in Smith's sad, desperate grab for relevance as a right-winger, though Robert Caro attributes this also as partly due to Smith's top advisers either moving to Roosevelt, dying or falling out with him, so that there was nobody around to advise Smith not to make that disastrous speech.

              •  in 1936 he endorsed Landon (0+ / 0-)

                he still backed FDR for his first term.

                "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

                by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 04:12:46 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  The MO Dems kept it as well until recently (0+ / 0-)

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:34:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why did they ditch it? (0+ / 0-)

        Is it because it is a relic of the old Democratic Party, the one that grumbled over Reconstruction and were champions of nullification?

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:02:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You still see the rooster in Indiana (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      ... as a symbol of the Democratic Party.  I don't know if it's "official," but you still do see it, I think moreso in the southern part of the state.

    •  Back in college Dems (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007

      One of my members suggested we change the logo to Godzilla.

      I still support this idea. Donkeys are lame.

      SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

      by trowaman on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:23:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I was thinking on VA (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, JohnnyBoston, JGibson

    if Dems win all three statewide races, I can imagine the ensuing shift in policy and organization will be a real whiplash.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:10:49 AM PDT

    •  No, it'll be a stalemate, not a shift (4+ / 0-)

      It'll be exactly like the federal government the last couple years.  We'll still have a huge GOP majority in the House of Delegates.  They won't entertain anything TMac wants.  The only things that get done will be things that must be done, like the budget.  I hope TMac and his people already are thinking about what executive power alone allows in the state, because that's all he'll have, nothing legislative.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:09:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC-Sen: Tillis raises $300K, $250K on hand (4+ / 0-)

    Color me unimpressed.  Tillis announced May 30th but he's been laying the groundwork for years.  His consultant claims this is about ten days worth of work.      

    The National Journal article says Senate President Phil Berger plans to decide by the end of July, and Rep. Renee Ellmers is supposed to state her plans by Friday.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:47:17 AM PDT

  •  So (9+ / 0-)

    I'm reading some GOP criticism of the partisan breakdown in the Iowa release from PPP. Yeah, that again!

    Just out of interest (and because I'm bored) I looked at their final 2012 poll of the state. PPP found Obama +2 based on a D+3 electorate. Obviously Obama would win by 6 points. The exit poll? 33-33, D-R.

    In other words PPP had a sample that was too Democratic but also 4 points more favorable to Romney. I really don't want to get into the skewing nonsense again but suffice it to say this happens time and time again with PPP.

    Not that this new poll is predictive of anything of course.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:03:03 PM PDT

    •  Uh huh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      And if they unskew it, their unknown JV squad candidates suddenly look dominant? Mmhmm.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:05:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dean Chambers has a new job! (0+ / 0-)

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:05:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Legit gripe, but only if you look at everything (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      2010 exit poll was 35R/31D
      2012 was 33/33
      PPP is +1D

      In itself, yes, that suggests a too favorable sample for Dems.  But party ID is fluid and PPP's Iowa 2012 polling tilted Republican by four points.

      So, it might be a bit Dem tilted, or it might be a bit Rep tilted.  The combination of historical factors though suggest that it is in the ballpark.

      It hardly matters though as Branstad won the election by 10%, and he won indies by 10%.

      PPP has Branstad winning indies against Branstad by 2%.  That is what matters in terms of why Branstad is only ahead by 5%, and indies will be the key to the election in 2014.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:57:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The reality of Iowa turnout is... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      ...that the GOP normally has a very small advantage, if you go by party registration.  The state publishes online the data for turnout by party for every election going back quite a few years now, so we know it all.  But the difference is very small, and the disparity with polling that might show Ds with a small advantage in self-reported party ID, which is different from registration, is trivial.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:12:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-Sen: Braley has got a really distracting color (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    Look at the shirts of the people who marched for him at a 4th of July parade:
    https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:04:18 PM PDT

    •  "I Back Bruce" is also about as difficult to say (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      as any slogan ever.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:46:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  One man's distracting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, dsh17

      Is another man's eye-catching. I believe SEIU also rocks the purple.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:49:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Northern Iowa does, right? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kman23

        I seem to recall that from their Sweet 16 run.  And they're in his district.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:14:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also the Vikings (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          whom I think get a lot of Iowa support.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:22:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't care for that usage either. (0+ / 0-)

        Bright purple doesn't belong on a t-shirt imo.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:19:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't consider that bright purple (0+ / 0-)

          The one sign in the middle bottom being held by the Asian girl is bright purple, but the shirts are not.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:23:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  so do the LA Lakers (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, kurykh, uclabruin18

        A few years back I was walking over to the Democratic state convention with future State Superintendent of Public Instruction of California, Tom Torlakson.
        On the way we saw a wave of people decked out in purple and gold. Torlakson, thinking that it was SEIU, exclaims something like " Is there a huge strike going on today?"

        To which  me an my friends respond "Oh No those folks are just Lakers fans heading to the basketball game today"

        "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

        by lordpet8 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:22:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Speaking of rocking the purple (0+ / 0-)

        maybe Prince could play a show to benefit him?

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:29:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yuck (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, DCCyclone

          He's personally anti-gay.  I've always been under the impression that Prince was a Republican. He's anti-gay, pro-life, and self describes as born again Christian (the particular sect would be Jehovah's Witness, and they're a particular peculiar brand of entirely f*ing crazy whackos).

          However, that wouldn't be that difficult, I don't think it would be that difficult to orchestrate. Someone that I know who knows Braley also happens to know Prince...

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:40:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  He donated to Rudy Boschwitz (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv

          So I think he's a Republican.

          27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:52:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  OK, forget him (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, KingofSpades, kman23

            I still think Braley's purple shirts look cool, and politically, there is the SEIU resemblance; I walk or bus past the SEIU headquarters (at DC's Dupont Circle) a lot and the purple logo proudly adorns the building.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:56:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe it's because I was a bit cranky today (0+ / 0-)

              from getting up early today.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 03:13:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  FEC-Gay Marriage (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kman23

    I wonder if someone could sue the federal government on free speech and/or freedom of association grounds in order to remedy the disparity that exists in the FEC guidelines now (or maybe should I say that will almost certainly exist now?) with the treatment of gay couples versus straight couples.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:27:41 PM PDT

  •  What a difference re-election can make (6+ / 0-)

    Orrin Hatch was worried about a primary challenge not too long ago, today he supported ENDA in a committee vote, along with Murkowski and Kirk.

    ENDA looks like it has a decent chance of passing the Senate. Nelson, Manchin and Pryor are the only Dems to not co-sponsor the bill. Not sure why Nelson is on that list. Hopefully, those three would at least vote or cloture. If they did that would bring cloture support to at least 58 votes.

    Sadly, ENDA has little chance in the House, although Paul Ryan supported it in 2007. But I think it's one of the more simpler things the GOP could do to rebrand the party.

  •  IA-01: Swati Dandekar resigns from Utilities Board (8+ / 0-)

    She was in this position until April 2015, but now she's resigned for a likely run for Congress: http://www.bleedingheartland.com/...

    First she departs the Senate 2 years ago, putting the Dem majority in jeopardy to take a piece of bait that Branstad deliberately put out there to take away the Dem majority and now she cannot even serve her full term because suddenly she wants this (higher paying) job?!  Sorry, but somebody who is so opportunistic that they're willing to put Democratic control in jeopardy is not trustworthy.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:34:48 PM PDT

  •  NJ-Leg: Dems using Obama-style data machine (7+ / 0-)

    and turnout analytics to help secure the majority: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 01:35:39 PM PDT

  •  We're just a month away from when Bush's 2nd term (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, DCCyclone, askew

    was neutered(Katrina) and about 5 months from when Clinton's was(Lewinsky), thankfully i'm not seeing anything like either of those on the horizon for Obama.

  •  WATN: Fossella won't be imitating Weiner/ Spitzer (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    http://politicker.com/...

    “I am always humbled by folks who have asked me to reconsider and run again,” Mr. Fossella told radio host Curtis Sliwa yesterday. “Who knows what tomorrow brings? But for now, I look at it that the people who matter most are in good shape, that I am at a point I need to be and frankly, very simply … I don’t have that desire to run right now.”

    ...

    The ex-congressman now has a lucrative gig as a lobbyist in former U.S. Senator Al D’Amato’s lobbying and consulting firm, Park Strategies. He is also playing an active role as a booster of Republican mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:02:12 PM PDT

    •  He wants to run... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      ...he's just not foolish enough to challenge Grimm until Grimm gets in trouble.

      He even toyed with getting back in the race in 2008 and wanted a placeholder in 2010 in case he decided to get in.  If Grimm's legal trouble were to sink him Fossella would not only probably get it but he'd probably win.

      And that has nothing to do with the job he did.  He was a lousy congressman who pretended his incompetence at bringing anything home for Staten Island was a mark of his "fiscal conservatism."

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 12:19:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Pretty Pathetic": Artur Davis in a nutshell (7+ / 0-)

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 02:30:23 PM PDT

  •  OH-10: Good on paper but tough (9+ / 0-)

    The 10th is pretty much Dayton and suburbs, and Turner is the former Mayor of Dayton. He has a unique strength that will be hard to overcome.

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 03:17:26 PM PDT

    •  Mike Turner (0+ / 0-)

      is about as anonymous as a congressman can be.  The Dayton news almost never quotes him (it's always Portman or Brown) and he doesn't seem to have much name rec even after five terms. Heck, even I sometimes slip up and think John Boehner is my representative (I live right on the line between OH-10 and OH-8).

      If the right candidate comes along he can be beaten.

      •  But was he anonymous as mayor? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        emops, James Allen, wwmiv

        Politicians can ride reputations from long past pretty easily, that's probably why Dave Reichert has stuck around as long as he has.

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:46:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  he left office in 2001 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          after losing reelection. Although people generally credit him with bringing a minor league baseball team to Dayton, I doubt he's remembered all that much, fondly or not.

          •  He was narrowly defeated (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            And then he turned right around and ran for Congress. And he won 59-41.

            I will stipulate that we've but up weak candidates against Turner. But that doesn't mean you're right that he's weak.

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:46:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The fact that we've only run weak candidates (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, RVKU

              may actually infer that local Democrats view him as incredibly strong and aren't willing to risk their political futures on a suicide run.

              I.E. the supply side theory of candidate recruitment.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:48:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  If there was a single hint of a doubt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    ...They’re alarmed by the president’s ongoing insistence on enacting a single, massive, Obamacare-like bill rather than pursuing a step-by-step, common-sense approach to actually fix the problem.  

  •  Musical taste and political affilliation (4+ / 0-)

    http://notes.variogr.am/...

    Artists whose fans are most correlated to Republican

    1. Kenny Chesney

    2. George Strait

    3. Reba McEntire

    4. Tim McGraw

    5. Jason Aldean

    6. Blake Shelton

    7. Shania Twain

    8. Kelly Clarkson

    9. Pink Floyd

    10. Elvis Presley

    Artists whose fans are most correlated to Democrat

    1. Rihanna

    2. Jay-Z

    3. Madonna

    4. Lady Gaga

    5. Katy Perry

    6. Snoop Dogg

    7. Chris Brown

    8. Usher

    9. Eminem

    10. Bob Marley

    Artists whose fans are hardest to predict for either Democrat or Republican

    1. The Beatles

    2. Marilyn Manson

    3. The Rolling Stones

    4. Johnny Cash

    5. Pantera

    6. Alice in Chains

    7. Paradise Lost

    8. Moonspell

    9. Fleetwood Mac

    10. Tiamat

    •  Pink Floyd? (7+ / 0-)

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 04:45:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ah Kenny Chesney, America's First Frat Boy (0+ / 0-)

      Not exactly surprising, there. Pink Floyd is at least somewhat interesting. Roger Waters was hardly a Thatcher fan, and has a fair amount of lefty-ish activism to his name. Though really this just shows the generation and regional gap between the bases of the two parties. Nothing inherently political about most of these acts, and the third group is mostly people who just sold ungodly amounts of records...

      •  However, I wonder how many of (0+ / 0-)

        those Republican Tim McGraw fans are aware of his real political preference.  Otherwise, you're likely right about fans' region and age determining these, without regard to what (if any) political beliefs the artists have or had.

        And I thought I kept up well with music, but Moonspell and Tiamat are drawing an initial blank with me.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 05:30:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hollowverese (0+ / 0-)

        Gives a breakdown of the political views of the listed above artists.

        Eminem:

        "Eminem is not popular with the politically correct. His song lyrics, which include references to killing women and gay people, has earned him widespread condemnation–like the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation, who called him a homophobic misogynist.

        However, Eminem has tried to shake this reputation by singing songs onstage with Elton John and supporting gay marriage, saying:

        I think if two people love each other, then what the hell? I think that everyone should have the chance to be equally miserable, if they want. It’s the new tolerant me! My overall look on things is a lot more mature than it used to be.

        Eminem further cemented his place in the liberal corner by attacking George W. Bush in a music video and saying he had a “plan to ambush this Bush administration.” Furthermore, Eminem has come out officially as an Obama supporter during the 2008 election."

        Madonna:

        "Madonna has been a strong supporter of the Democratic Party and many liberal social movements. She came out in support of Barack Obama during his 2008 campaign and has been an advocate for gay rights since her rise to fame in the 80s. At a gay rally, Madonna said in a speech:

        I"f we can elect an African-American as president, we can support gay marriage!"

        She came out against the war in Iraq and the Bush administration, saying:

        "Global terror is everywhere. Global terror is down the street, around the block. Global terror is in California. There’s global terror everywhere and it’s absurd to think you can get it by going to one country and dropping tons of bombs on innocent people."

        Snoop Dog:

        "Politically, Snoop Dogg is complex, nuanced. During the Democratic presidential primaries in 2008, he said he equally supported both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, saying that they both seemed to have the people’s best interest at heart.

        When Obama won the primary and was running for president, Snoop supported him as a boost of confidence for the black community, saying:

        People that I know that have never cared about politics are registering to vote this time: gang members, ex-cons, you name it. I hate to see a lot of that hope go down the drain, and if [Obama] loses, it will.

        But after Obama’s victory, Snoop Dogg was possibly the first, if not the only, high-profile black man to question the new president and even said the Bill Clinton was truly the first black president:

        He was closest we gonna get to the first black president. He related to black needs and black values, black understanding and racism.

        It seems this rapper whose music seems more about sex, pimps & ho’s, and smoking reefer is possibly quite misunderstood. There’s a very good chance he’s much more than most of us have given him credit for.

        Of course, in the 2012 election, he supports Ron Paul–but only because he’s the only candidate who will legalize marijuana."

        Usher:

        "Usher was a big supporter of Barack Obama in 2008 and when Obama won the election, Usher was there to sing his praises at the inaugural celebration concert known as ‘We Are One.’ Usher was optimistic about Obama’s presidency at the time, saying:

        Barack Obama’s put the ball back in our courts…We’ve elected an incredible president. Now we need to continue to encourage him and push him to keep all his promises.

        Hmm.. ‘push him to keep his promises’ is actually a rather enlightened thing to say.

        Regarding Obama, Usher took his recommendations of community service to heart with his charity work, visiting inner-city grade schools and focusing his charitable foundation on child development.

        But the controversy has to come at some point, right? Like Mariah Carey, Nelly Furtado, and various other R&B singers, Usher has given private concerts to high-paying dictators–in this case the Qaddafi family.

        Well, nobody’s perfect, especially when a $1 million is involved."

        Lady GaGa:

        "Lady Gaga has a lot of influence with 12 million followers on Twitter and 36 million Facebook fans. She’s used her celebrity to push various social issues, mostly relating to gay rights. One journalist even called her a “political tsunami,” after she was ranked in the Forbes most powerful women list in 2011.

        She has not specifically claimed any political ideological territory (Democrat, Republican, Liberal, Conservative) but one could assume that she is quite socially liberal.

        Lady Gaga has even appeared and spoken at a political rally to repeal the U.S. military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy on gay service members. Though no proof exists that Gaga’s impassioned speech made any impact, the policy was later repealed by the Obama administration. She said:

        Equality is the prime rib of America. Shouldn’t everyone deserve the right to wear the same meat dress that I do?"

        Rihanna:

        "Rihanna is quite a bit more political than she lets on. At the recent funeral of the late Prime Minister of her island nation of Barbados, David Thompson, Rihanna said:

        It was very upsetting. I’m not good at the politics side at the moment. It terrifies me because I am so young. But maybe one day in years, decades from now, I’ll get involved. I think more pop stars should care about their country and how it’s run.

        However, our young pop star is very involved in her country’s politics. She could even be considered an official Barbados politician. She has been given the official title of Ambassador of Youth and Culture of Barbados by then-Prime Minister David Thompson.

        She is heavily involved in promoting Barbados tourism, the small country’s primary economic engine, appearing in a series of commercials and bringing up her home country on numerous occasions. She’s a true patriot.

        In the U.S., she’s no political slouch either, performing at President Obama’s America’s Presidential Charity Inaugural Ball."

        Jay-Z:

        "One side of Jay-Z seems to feel that politics is all lies and corruption–and he wants no part of it, saying:

        I’m not interested in politics. I have zero interest. I have interest in hope and people. Politics – I still think it’s a bunch of liars and a bunch of self-interest. It’s not about people, it’s about themselves and their rise to power…[politicians] don’t have the balls to say, ‘I believe in this, I don’t care what happens.’ And until that happens, nothing is going to get fixed; you’re still going to have 14 year olds in cities with AK-47s.

        But when it comes to Obama, Jay-Z must have changed his mind, because he supported the president’s 2008 campaign,  he and his wife, Beyonce, are buddies with the first family, even popping in to the White House just for a visit, and Jay-Z even came out in support of Obama’s “Buffet Rule,” saying:

        I wouldn’t mind paying more taxes if it went to the things that really mattered. If it went to education, to people in poverty, if it went to the right things, I wouldn’t mind.

        He’s got “hope” for some “change,” y’all!"

    •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

      and not exactly surprising, given what we know about the demographics of the parties.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 05:02:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tim McGraw (8+ / 0-)

      Not a Republican even if his fans might be. Has even thought about running for Governor of Tennessee as a Democrat. He and his wife Faith Hill were prominent Obama supporters.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 05:44:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They were prominent Bill Clinton supporters, too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        McGraw was ga-ga over Clinton publicly.

        Also, if I remember corrrectly, only in adulthood did McGraw learn he was the love child of another famous McGraw, former All-Star MLB relief pitcher Tug McGraw who I remember most vividly starring with the Phillies.  Tim's mom didn't tell him for a long time that Tug was his daddy.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:24:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Given how thin our Tennessee bench is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico

          He may be a strongest possibility to win the Governor's race in 2018 (other than maybe Nashville Mayor Karl Dean).

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 10:24:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Apperently I'm lost (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jj32

      As I'm not a fan of any of those 30 lol.

      Age 25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married in September:)

      by KyleinWA on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 05:54:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're not a fan of the Beatles? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kman23

        Pretty much everyone is a fan of the Beatles, or at least that's what it seems to me. That's why you can't predict whether Beatles fans are Democrats or Republicans, because everyone likes them. I have yet to meet a single person who says that they don't like the Beatles.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:05:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't listen to the Beatles. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KyleinWA

          They just don't click for me.

        •  Ugh no (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          My mom would make me listen to them, day in, and day out, growing up as a child. Now that I am manager at a local restaurant chain, we have a juke box in the store, and I have to listen to people not just picking one Beatles song, but the whole CD, at least 3 times a day.

          Heard them....way too often.......gonna go.....crazy!!!!!!

          Age 25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married in September:)

          by KyleinWA on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 07:28:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  My ex disliked them. (0+ / 0-)

          Only person I know.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:51:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  So in other words, Democrats are gays, blacks... (8+ / 0-)

      ... and stoners, and Republicans are Southerners and people who were teenagers in the 50s or 70s.

      Boomers and GenX'ers are split.

    •  Bit surprised (0+ / 0-)

      A bit surprised to see Rihanna top the list for Democrats, if this is a ranking.  Not that I'm surprised by the politics; I more surprised with how popular she is that she could be on the list with the many of the other's mentioned.

      •  Rihanna is the interesection of gay and black :) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        Some of the most interesting ones are the mixed ones. They mostly seem to be bands with primarily white fan bases that would be slightly more liberal than white voters generally. I'd be interested to see a comparison of the demographics of Johnny Cash fans, Pantera fans and Marilyn Manson fans.

        27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:29:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What I found more surprising (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, trowaman

        was fucking Chris Brown showing up on the Democrats list, especially given his history of abuse he unleashed on Rihanna, you wonder what type of Democrat would still buy this monster songs.

    •  Non-partisan music = best music (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      at least according to this list.

      Gimme some Dave Matthews Band, Foo Fighters, Gorillaz, Matchbox 20, and Badly Drawn Boy.

      Also, re Jay-Z as Democratic Music, I'll leave you all with M.C. Sherrod Brown.

      SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

      by trowaman on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:36:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MS-Hattiesburg: There was a bit of drama (5+ / 0-)

    in the mayoral election where Dupree won re-election over Republican-backed Indie Dave Ware by a little over 30 votes.  Ware contended there were irregularities: http://www.whlt.com/...
    http://cottonmouthblog.blogspot.com/...

    But in the end it was dismissed and Dupree was sworn in to a 4th term:
    http://cottonmouthblog.blogspot.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 06:33:09 PM PDT

  •  Politico fires a shot at Brian Schweitzer (10+ / 0-)

    A new article plays up his "rocky relationship" with fellow Montana Democrats, which I mean I'm sure is why other potential Senate candidates are waiting until he makes a decision and why he was one of the most popular governors in the country and why now-Gov. Steve Bullock was able to convincingly win election last year. Story here.

    Interviews with nearly two dozen Montana Democrats paint competing pictures of Schweitzer. His allies adore him, calling him an affable and popular figure incredibly loyal to his friends, who had enormous political successes as governor and would stop at nothing to achieve his objectives.

    His critics describe him as a hot-tempered, spiteful and go-it-alone politician — eager to boost his own image while holding little regard for helping the team, something few forget in a small state like Montana.

    “He doesn’t do anything if it doesn’t benefit him,” said one Montana Democrat and former Schweitzer ally, who, like many others interviewed for this story, asked not to be identified. “He’s an incredibly self-serving politician.”

    So hey, somebody who is pissed at Schweitzer gets to hide behind anonymity to attack him? Great journalistic ethics, Politico! That's a truly judicious use of anonymous sourcing.

    Seriously, you could write most of this article, nearly verbatim, about almost any other governor or ex-governor in the country. Governors promote their own agendas, and they work with people who will cooperative and they work around people who won't, and that's what they have to do in order to govern. They build coalitions, and they make some enemies. And sometimes being governor takes precedence over being "nice".

    Have I mentioned how little respect I have for Politico? Ugh.

  •  PA: Kathleen Kane says she wont defend (14+ / 0-)

    the state of PA in  a lawsuit challenging its gay marriage ban.

    Link.

  •  "Missing white voters" argument blown up (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, lordpet8

    Ruy Texeira, IMO the guru of political demographics, blows up Sean Trende's math here:  http://thinkprogress.org/...

    Not much more for me to say, except that I agree with every word Texeira writes.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:28:37 PM PDT

    •  Oh (4+ / 0-)

      The Nate Cohn response was even better.

      http://www.newrepublic.com/...

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 08:51:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, very well done. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        It says that immigration reform is not quite the boon for Dems that both parties are probably expecting, but it's a test for the GOP.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:37:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Cohn's piece has one very major fail (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kleinburger

          He includes in his piece a notion that Democrats are declining in performance with whites.

          This is wrong, and is the same thing that former SSPer (who was banned) matt123 made way back when and still continues to make on Twitter.

          And what's disturbing to me is that it's wrong in a fundamental way that people who spend much of their work time studying elections should recognize, but some of these people don't.

          Cohn looks at exit polls and thinks that somehow we're doing steadily since 1996.  To reach that conclusion, he first pretends Perot didn't exist and "weights" the white vote according to 2-party vote share; he second wrongly treats trivial changes in vote share in exit polls as exact figures, rather than as approximations subject to statistical noise; and he third ignores 2008 when Obama's white vote share was 43%, tying our post-1976 all-time high that we got with Clinton '96.

          This is some crazy mathematical gymnastics that Cohn executes.  And it's not valid.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 05:42:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That argument made no sense (10+ / 0-)

      at least in the version that Republicans want to believe--that lots of conservative white voters stayed home in 2012.  Seriously, if the opportunity to get what they regard as that Kenyan socialist Barack Hussein Obama out of office wasn't enough reason for them to vote, then what the fuck would be?

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:16:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's the most succinct way of putting it. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, R30A, JBraden

        And if they think it's because the GOP candidate wasn't conservative enough, forget about it.  They said that about McCain's loss and Romney ran to the right of him then and now.  And the other candidates in the GOP primary in 2012 either burned out or were terrible for the GOP.  Santorum, Bachmann, and Gingrich would have bombed in the general.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 09:39:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A map vs. Santorum or Rep. Bachmann... (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, jj32, jncca, R30A, JBraden

          Probably would have been an improvement over 2008.

        •  But the point is that most House Republicans (0+ / 0-)

          are not afraid of demographic changes or winning more Hispanics in their districts. After redistricting, the average House Republican seat got more white by 2%. Most House Republicans continue to be in safe districts as are most House Democrats.
          A House Republican's first priority is to get reelected and a primary challenge is more of a danger than a general election loss.  This immigration debate is framed politically  on a national level and meta voter demographics over time while House Republicans are looking at it through the optics of their individual House seats.
          Democrats won more votes in House races in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia  and elsewhere but because of redistricting are in the deep minority in those House delegation. Simply, many House Republican are going to be immune from the threat of demographic changes. It's not the case of finding more or missing white voters ... it's that Republicans have locked in most of their gains from 2010 for at least the next couple of cycles.

          •  many (0+ / 0-)

            but we don't need many to pass immigration reform.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 11:45:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  No, that's not the point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            The point of the "missing white voters" hypothesis, and the discussion in this subthread, is the Presidential election.

            You're correct regarding House Republicans.  But that is not the point of this particular discussion.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 05:36:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  CFG Going against Simpson and Rounds? (0+ / 0-)

    What they are fighting is not conservatism. Both are severely conservative candidates. They are fighting sanity.

    Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

    by R30A on Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 03:42:13 PM PDT

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