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9:35 AM PT: CA-31: Fundraising in California's 31st, home to a wide-open Democratic nominating battle and an extremely vulnerable Republican incumbent, is turning out to be surprisingly weak, with one exception. Ex-Rep. Joe Baca, whose campaign has been filled with stumbles, took in a joke-level $38,000 and has a paltry $27,000 on hand. Meanwhile, attorney Eloise Reyes, who previously claimed to have raised $200,000, only raised half that amount; the rest was from a personal loan, leaving her with $194,000 in the bank. Among Democrats, only 2012 candidate Pete Aguilar raised a decent sum, $302,000, and he leads with $290,000 in cash. Republican Rep. Gary Miller, meanwhile, trailed with just $232,000 in receipts, though he has the largest war chest, at $575,000.

10:21 AM PT: Fundraising: Feast your eyes: It's time for the Daily Kos Elections second quarter House fundraising reports roundup. We've collected FEC data for the April 1 through June 30 reporting period for 221 candidates in 129 different districts, featuring every competitive race (whether in the general or primary) and all open seats. Of course, it's still very early. Many more candidates will get in, and plenty of these contests won't pan out. But for now, these numbers offer us a good read on who is serious about running for the House—or staying in it.

10:37 AM PT: ME-Sen: Republican Sen. Susan Collins has now indicated that she doesn't have her sights set on the Department of Homeland Security, which is in need of a new chief with Janet Napolitano stepping down. But Collins is definitely leaving some wiggle room, so you should judge her words for yourself:

The White House has not contacted me, I do not expect to be contacted by the White House and I am very happy being senator from Maine and I'm fully committed to seeking reelection.
And she followed that up by saying: "I'm not in the practice of turning down jobs that nobody has offered," so I wouldn't rule anything out just yet.

10:47 AM PT: MT-Sen: Another top Democrat is saying no to a Senate bid in Montana. Following on the heels of ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision to sit the race out, state Auditor Monica Lindeen just announced that she won't run for the seat being left open by Max Baucus's retirement.

11:05 AM PT: CA-52: Assuming former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio doesn't find himself unexpectedly running for mayor again soon, he may have a bit of a challenge on his right flank in next year's congressional primary. Former Marine Corps intelligence officer Kirk Jorgensen announced his entry into the race earlier this month, and in the final two weeks of the quarter, he pulled in a very impressive $119,000. For the most part, Jorgensen has been quiet about his views, though he did describe himself as a "fiscal conservative," which is a bit more traditional than DeMaio's focus-grouped "new generation Republican" label.

DeMaio did tremendously well on the fundraising front himself, taking in a huge $484,000. But true believers usually have the edge when squaring off against "moderates" in GOP nomination battles, so DeMaio will need to maintain that cash advantage if Jorgensen does indeed run to his right. Either way, Dem Rep. Scott Peters certainly wouldn't complain if Jorgensen and DeMaio drained one another's coffers.

11:19 AM PT: ME-Gov: Republican Gov. Paul LePage has finally released his fundraising numbers, and man do they suck. In the first six months of the year, LePage reported taking in just $123,000, compared to $430,000 in five months for independent Eliot Cutler, and $314,000 for Dem Rep. Mike Michaud in under three weeks. Ugly.

11:43 AM PT: SD Mayor: Man. I can't say "this is really getting bad" for San Diego Mayor Bob Filner, because it already was bad. So I guess... it's getting even worse.

11:48 AM PT: OH-07/16: Democratic ex-Rep. John Boccieri, who had been vaguely mooting a comeback bid in either Ohio's 7th or 16th Congressional District but sounded unenthused about running for office again in general, has apparently shut the door on the idea altogether. At the end of June, he filed a termination report with the FEC, permanently shutting down his campaign account. Of course, Boccieri could very easily re-open a new one at any time, but this isn't the kind of thing you do if you're raring to get back in the game.

11:52 AM PT: NJ-Sen: Meh. Another boring poll of the Democratic primary, this one from Monmouth (PDF). As per usual, Newark Mayor Cory Booker is right around the 50 percent mark (in this case, 49), while his nearest competitor barely makes it into the double digits.

12:52 PM PT: CA-15: I've been more than a little perplexed by state Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett. Last cycle, it seemed like she was interested in running for California's 15th District, but only if fellow Democratic Rep. Pete Stark retired. (Ro Khanna seemed to be in the same boat.) Of course, that didn't happen, and instead Stark was turned out by another Democrat, Eric Swalwell. Unlike Khanna, Corbett has apparently kept her sights on the 15th, and the San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci says that Corbett's "declared herself a candidate."

But it's not quite clear to me that she truly has. Corbett's website is just a splash screen (with an odd footer that reads "Computer Generated / Labor Donated"), and her fundraising can't even charitably be called anemic. She took in just $12,000 in the second quarter and has $115,000 on hand, compared to $238,000 for Swalwell, who has $405,000 in the bank and has also sewn up establishment backing from the likes of Nancy Pelosi. If Corbett really wants to unseat Swalwell, what is she waiting for?

1:30 PM PT: NYC Comptroller: Even though Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer has said he wouldn't seek to invalidate ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer's petitions, it looks like a challenge is coming anyway. Republican operative E. O'Brien Murray, who managed Bob Turner's successful special election bid for Anthony Weiner's old seat, filed an objection to Spitzer's signatures ahead of Monday night's deadline. Murray now has to file more detailed claims by next week, at which point the Board of Elections may initiate a more thorough review.

1:55 PM PT: KY-Gov: Third-term GOP Rep. Brett Guthrie says he won't run for statewide office in 2015, including governor, and will instead focus on his re-election next year. While Guthrie's 2nd District is safely red at 63-35 Romney, he did just earn a challenge from retired Army Major Ron Leach, so he will actually have to run a campaign this cycle.

2:19 PM PT: WY-Sen: After making noise about a possible bid for Senate for over a year, FOX News commentator Liz Cheney has decided to forge ahead with a challenge to Sen. Mike Enzi in next year's GOP primary—just hours after Enzi himself finally said he'd seek re-election. Aside from the fact that Enzi's not a fire-breathing hater, there's been no explanation as to why Cheney's so unhappy with his record that she thinks he's worth unseating, and indeed, her ambition has apparently already cheesed off a few members of Wyoming's political establishment.

Of course, Democrats have no hope here regardless of what transpires in the primary, but more broadly speaking, this is still good news for Team Blue. Thanks to her (in)famous father, Cheney will hoover up a great deal of media attention, making it just a bit harder for lesser Republican lights to get any oxygen. More importantly, she'll be able to raise lots of money, and she'll force Enzi to do the same—funds that now won't be spent elsewhere, defeating Democrats.

Enzi could, however, still retire; in his "announcement" on Tuesday, he said that he'd only formally launch his campaign "at a later date," in the AP's phrasing. But even if he hangs it up, Cheney probably won't have a free shot, as Rep. Cynthia Lummis has said she'll run if Enzi does not. That means it's cat fud all the way down.

3:25 PM PT: VA-Gov: Hmm. PPP said on Monday that GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell's severe ethics woes had "become a liability for Republican candidates" and that their new horserace poll numbers would "confirm" McDonnell's albatross effect. I'm not seeing it, though. Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the governor's race by a 41-37 margin, which is all but unchanged compared to his 42-37 lead in May. (Libertarian Robert Sarvis, test for the first time, takes an improbably high 7 percent, but he's drawing from the considerable pool of undecideds.)

Further downballot, Democrat Ralph Northam has a decent 42-35 lead over Republican E.W. Jackson for lieutenant governor, but you have to chalk that up to Jackson's notorious mouth and early negative favorability rating (15-28). Margin-wise, though, that's no different from Northam's 35-29 advantage last time. And in the attorney general's race, Democrat Mark Herring has just a 38-36 edge over Republican Mark Obenshain. Since the two candidates have similar levels of name recognition, it's hard to see McDonnell's negatives at work here, and again, Herring's spread has barely budged since his 33-32 lead in May.

PPP also asked about the generic legislative ballot, where they find Dems ahead 46-42, perhaps presaging a few pickups in the state House this fall. I don't think PPP included the generic ballot in May, but back in January, Democrats were on top 45-41, so again, no real change. McDonnell's travails could very well wind up hurting his own party, but it doesn't seem like we have much evidence of that yet.

But let's not forget that Cuccinelli has his own lengthy set of issues with Star Scientific, the company whose largesse has brought McDonnell so low. The New York Times gives Cuccinelli's relationship with Star and its CEO, Jonnie Williams, heavy-duty treatment in a new piece that focuses on profits Cuccinelli made from trading Star's stock. The paper notes that on at least two occasions, Cuccinelli's "buying and selling was closely timed to vacations he and his family enjoyed as guests of Mr. Williams." (Cuccinelli of course denies ever talking to Williams about the trades.)

Cuccinelli's also the subject of a new attack ad from the Virginia Democratic Party. The spot features a senior citizen who describes her reliance on Social Security and Medicare, then attacks Cuccinelli over a book he wrote in which he "questions" whether the programs should exist. Presumably this is airing as part of the VA Dems' recent $275,000 buy, which was actually funded by a McAuliffe cash infusion.

3:29 PM PT: NE-Gov: State Sen. Tom Carlson has entered the Nebraska's open-seat contest for governor, joining fellow state Sen. Charlie Janssen in the GOP primary. Former University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook is in the race for Democrats, though other candidates are likely to jump in.

3:42 PM PT: IA-Sen: State Sen. Joni Ernst will formally kick off her Senate campaign on Wednesday, joining a crowded Republican field for Iowa's open seat. Already in the race are former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, former Chuck Grassley chief of staff David Young, and radio host Sam Clovis, with former energy industry executive Mark Jacobs also still weighing the race. Rep. Bruce Braley is the only Democrat running.

3:50 PM PT: NC-Gov: That didn't take long. Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, who was first elected in November, has seen his job approval rating head underwater for the first time in PPP's polling. He's now at an ugly 40-49, a sharp drop from his 45-39 rating just a month ago. Tom Jensen ascribes this drop to the radical agenda being advanced by the legislature (which also has poor ratings), and which McCrory's been signing on to. This includes legislation restricting abortion access and curtailing unemployment benefits, among other things.

And here's a remarkable statistic: Democrats have a 51-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot, which is the largest edge PPP has found for the party, ever. Unfortunately, given the GOP's devlish gerrymander, even a whomping like that might not be enough to put the legislature back in Democratic hands. But numbers like these can only boost Sen. Kay Hagan's chances of re-election next year.

4:32 PM PT: 2Q Fundraising:

AR-Sen: Rep. Tom Cotton (R): $611K raised, $1 mil cash-on-hand (Cotton is still weighing the race)

AR-Gov: Bill Halter (D): $93K raised, $837K cash-on-hand; Asa Hutchinson (R): $379K raised, $649K cash-on-hand

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:00:11 AM PDT

  •  Virginia poll from PPP (11+ / 0-)

    McAuliffe by 4, Northam by 7, Herring by 2.

    Could be a clean sweep for the Democrats.

    •  They released the full poll? (0+ / 0-)

      I don't see it.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:15:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Politico has an article about it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, James Allen, DCCyclone

        http://www.politico.com/...

        It's 41-37 McAuliffe, with an unbelievable 7 percent for the libertarian. Northam is up 42-35, and Herring is up 38-36.

        •  Is it supposed to have undecideds at this point? (0+ / 0-)

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:23:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sometimes PPP listen too much to commenters. (0+ / 0-)

          I believe they suggested to poll the libertarian. The problem is that third party support almost always gets very inflated if the respondents are prompted to choose them, which PPP has to do as they do automated polls. Bob Barr in Georgia '08 anyone or Platt in SC-01, anyone?

          At the same time, it isn't really fair to automatically exclude third parties that could theoretically impact the race, such as Nader in 2000. But unless free-response polls show more than minimal support for third parties, PPP should not include them. A wasted poll.

          19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

          by Tayya on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:49:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Problem is, there are no free response polls (0+ / 0-)

            I haven't seen any free response polling for Virginia.

            Agree that the Libertarian figure is absurd.  And also typical of polling not just for PPP or Virginia, but many pollsters everywhere.

            The Libertarian will get maybe 0.7 percent, not 7 percent, on election day.

            And no one should assume these are GOP leaners, they are more likely a mix of non-voters and people who will split between the major party choices.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:16:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  OK for an off-off-year electorate (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madmojo, bjssp

          the Libertarian candidate is not going to get 7% in November, despite both candidates' flaws.  I wouldn't assume that most of that will go Republican, either, as much as the GOP might wish so.  Libertarian-leaning voters won't like the social-issues conservatism that Cuccinelli has long been identified with; I suspect many of them just won't vote if they're that dissatisfied with both major party candidates.

          I'd have hoped for a larger lead for LG, but as far as I can tell Northam seems to be essentially Generic D to most voters, which is more than good enough to defeat someone like EW Jackson.  AG seems to be Generic R vs. D, with McDonnell's and other GOP problems perhaps putting a finger on the D side of the scale.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:40:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I can see the races finishing like that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, SaoMagnifico

      or close to it. Northam with the widest margin of victory, then McAuliffe, then a very close tossup race for AG.

      I really feel like Northam should be up by more given that he is a strong candidate and given who his opponent is. But I guess 7 points for an off year Lt. Gov race isnt so bad.

       Has he or Jackson started running ads yet?

    •  I'd say down 4 is not bad for Cooch at this point (0+ / 0-)

      Given all the bad press on Virginia Republicans Bob McDonnell and E.W. Jackson.

      Certainly it's not good for Cooch, but by no means is McAuliffe running away with this race.

  •  conceivable ways Bob Filner could keep his job? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:10:04 AM PDT

  •  AR-Gov: Excellent quarter for Ross (15+ / 0-)

    He outraised Hutchinson by over 5-1: http://talkbusiness.net/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:15:06 AM PDT

  •  Abortion bill hurting NC Republicans: (19+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
    McCrory underwater in approval at 40-49 and Dems lead legislative ballot by 51-42.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:20:53 AM PDT

  •  NC-GOV (17+ / 0-)

    It's the moment we've all been waiting for! Pat McCrory's approval rating has plummeted according to PPP's most recent survey and he's now underwater with a 40/49 approval rating.

    19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

    by tqycolumbia on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:24:34 AM PDT

  •  Anthony Brown (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone, askew

    picked up an award from the NAACP yesterday as his steady march of inevitability continues.

  •  State of filibuster reform (9+ / 0-)

    Looks like Reid hasnt blinked yet. Greg Sargent notes that John McCain and a group of GOP senators are ready to give Dems pretty much what they want: up or down votes on all 7 nominees, while not blocking Dems from removing the filibuster in the future. But it's not certain.

    Votes on the 7 nominees, starting with Cordray start in about 45 minutes.

  •  NJ-Sen: Star-Ledger has a good profile of Pallone (0+ / 0-)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 07:16:51 AM PDT

  •  NJ-Sen: Monmouth poll: Booker leads Pallone 49-12 (7+ / 0-)

    Holt with 8%, Oliver with 3%. Link (pdf): http://www.monmouth.edu/...

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 07:18:34 AM PDT

    •  What does Oliver hope to accomplish? (0+ / 0-)

      Seriously?

      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

      by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:14:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What does she (0+ / 0-)

        Have to lose? Its not like Pallone and Holt's chances are that much better

        •  True, but don't they come in with a higher profile (0+ / 0-)

          than she does? To be clear, I have no problems with her. In fact, I don't know all that much about her. Is this some sort of test run for higher office? If so, what else is there besides the governorship in a few years, assuming Buono doesn't surprise us?

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:58:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They do (0+ / 0-)

            Have a higher profile but its not like there likelihood of winning is really any higher. And I think its a safe assumption to make that none of the three would've run had they had to give up their current position. If you want to argue that all three should drop out to avoid a chance of a messy primary, I disagree, but fine. If you want to argue that Pallone or Holt should drop out to give the other a puncher's chance that's fine as well. But for Oliver whether she uses this as a springboard for a future run or if its as simple as she has nothing to lose so why not take a shot at it, there's not really much of an argument for her not to continue her run as long as she continues to want to.

            •  I guess you are right. (0+ / 0-)

              "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

              by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 11:23:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  NE-GOV (7+ / 0-)

    This happened a few days ago, but I don't remember it being reported in DKE. Charlie Janssen has company in the Republican primary; State Senator Tom Carlson recently announced that he would run for Governor.

    Carlson made sure to let us know exactly what his priorities are in his campaign announcement, too:

    "I believe in the Bible and the God who inspired it," Carlson said. And that, he said, influences "everything I do."

    19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

    by tqycolumbia on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 07:22:20 AM PDT

  •  Cordray just got 60 votes on cloture (18+ / 0-)

    Finally!

    Guess he is definitely not running for governor now.

  •  I said before, that neither side would be (7+ / 0-)

    happy with a filibuster deal. That's sort of the case looking at initial reaction, but GOP seems more unhappy, because Cordray, McCarthy and Perez will be confirmed, and RINO McCain helped engineer the deal.

    •  I wonder if he's gonna run for reelection in 16 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      He was challenged in '10, but Hayworth was such a flop.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:36:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nuclear option will backfire (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, ChadmanFL, madmojo, wadingo

      I'm not at all convinced Republicans do it if they get the majority but if they do then be my guest. The 2016 map looks too good for Democrats.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:36:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I think you may be right (0+ / 0-)

        GOP said they would have blocked any potential student loan deal if filibuster was eliminated, and I believe that. They really need to get that done soon.

        Also, it would make the tough budget/debt situation in the fall even more difficult.

        •  GOP would've suffered badly for that and knew it (0+ / 0-)

          Blocking a student loan deal out of spite was only going to hurt them further and cost them a few votes in the midterm.  It's too easy to attack them for that.

          And GOP Senators knew it.  It's too obvious.

          Proving my point is that they capitulated like they did.  They had no real leverage.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:36:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  And especially if its something like Hillary vs (0+ / 0-)

        Cruz or Paul, we could be in for a substantial victory.

        (I realize presidential race predictions 3+ years out is mostly baseless, but whatev.)

      •  They won't do it until they get the trifecta... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, TrueBlueDem, askew

        At that point they won't hesitate, since they will change every law imaginable to make it impossible to lose their power.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:51:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well they can't change the Constitution (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          I don't think the GOP will win the trifecta perhaps for the rest of my life.  I'd put the odds of them ever having it again at less than 50-50.  The demographics are going to get only worse for them.  If they do get it, it will be only after becoming a less conservative version of themselves.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:37:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  We're still pretty screwed if the laws get (0+ / 0-)

            stripped down to the bare-bones of just the Constitution. It's a horribly dated document unsuitable for 21st century governance, from a progressive perspective.

            The GOP has a decent (maybe 40/60 given individual strength in Landrieu, Hagan, Begich) chance as of today of holding both houses of Congress entering the 2016 elections. How popular could Obama and the Democratic brand be leaving office under those conditions?

            (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

            by TrueBlueDem on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:36:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't know what "conditions" you mean (3+ / 0-)

              I've said before I don't think the GOP can net 6 Senate seats without a wave.

              What can cause a wave?  The easiest thing to speculate is the economy tanks.  Then yeah, we're in trouble next year and maybe 2016.  But no one now is anticipating the economy tanking.  I can't think of anything else besides that to cause a wave against us next year.

              And speculating that the economy tanks based on nothing isn't something to bother with.  If it happens, it happens.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 11:35:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Unfortunately they really don't need a wave (0+ / 0-)

                To gain the 6 seats in 2014. Obviously they look favored to win in SD and WV, and now it looks like MT will be a true toss-up with both Schweitzer and Lindeen passing.

                If they were able to take MT then from there they'd just need to beat Pryor, Landrieu, and either Begich or Hagan. Fortunately it's a little easier for our incumbents to win as opposed to holding open seats in the states, but control of the chamber does really look up in the air.

            •  Very (0+ / 0-)

              The very best thing for Obama's popularity and the Dem brand would be for the Republicans to take control of the Senate in 2014... and then act like the out of step loonies that they are.

              Given the 2016 Senate map, and the most likely 2016 Prez candidates, losing the Senate in 2014 would lead to an overwhelming Dem wave in 2016.

              I don't want it to work out that way, but it is the silver lining if 2014 sucks badly.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:35:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Even if it didn't, who cares? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, SaoMagnifico, skibum59

        It's really only for legislation that the filibuster matters in a very important way.

        For executive appointments, it matters as throwing a monkey wrench into the government functioning at all, or else not at all.  Whoever gets nominated is going to execute substantially the same Administration policies as anyone else.

        For judicial appointments, lifetime appointments make them more important, but again, unless you just freeze them during an opposition party's Presidency, you're going to get people of largely the same judicial philosophy.  Stopping some people doesn't really change anything in the country.  (And for anyone who wants to debate Bork vs. Kennedy, what we gained in gay rights we lost in gun control where Bork was on record as saying there's no private right to bear arms, and for all we know he also would've voted to uphold the health care law, too.  So one can never legitimately argue there are unqualified gains in stopping some people.)

        I'm all for killing the 60-vote cloture requirement for all appointments, regardless of who is in power.  In my nearly three decades of following politics, it's clear to me that little or nothing is gained from stopping someone absent obvious objective problems.

        I'm glad with this deal that at least the government can now function well for the next few years in the affected federal bodies.

        And since we're supposed to tie this into electoral politics, I'll add that a government that functions better is good for our side in the midterm.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:08:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't see what reason (0+ / 0-)

          there is to believe that Bork would have voted to uphold the health care law (if he were still on the court after 25 years by then.)  And having Kennedy in place of Bork may have saved Roe vs. Wade, among other social issue and civil rights issues.

          Though it's worth noting that had Bork served for life, Obama would be tasked with replacing him as he died last December.  What a confirmation battle that would have been...though I'm inclined to think he would have retired under Bush.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:16:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  We didn't know Kennedy would save... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades, bythesea

            ...Roe vs. Wade.

            Whatever we "gained" was dumb luck.  Reagan basically fucked up his own priorities by appointing O'Connor and Kennedy, and we benefitted.  But that can't be anticipated, ever.

            Talking about what we "gained" in this kind of trade is the same as a contestant picking a door in a game show, not knowing what's behind any of them.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:33:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Another LA Sen defects to GOP (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.westport-news.com/...

    This time it's freshman Rick Ward who represents a district near Baton Rouge (near Baton Rouge).  This gives the GOP a 26-39 majority in the Senate; as late as December 2010 I believe we held a 20-19 edge there.  

    His 17th district is pretty conservative: McCain won it 56-42.  For what it's worth, Mary Landrieu carried it 57-41 in 2008 as well, and Vitter only won it 49-44 in 2010.    

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:09:27 AM PDT

    •  Acadia (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Cajun Country. Obama performed pathetically bad there. Its more Democratic down ballot. Ward was unopposed in an open seat, for instance.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:17:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also, this district was bluer in 2012 than 2008 (0+ / 0-)

        on the Presidential level.  I hope Democrats put him on their electoral hit list for 2015 elections.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:25:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I checked (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff

          Every parish but one (one of the Feliciana ones) in his district was bluer in 2012 than 2008.  He needs to be put at the top of the list tied with Guillory, who holds a 60% Obama district.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:29:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Acadiana (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        You confused me because there is an Acadia Parish. This district is nowhere near Acadia Parish.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:43:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  As difficult as things look in some states, (0+ / 0-)

      how to turn them around in Louisiana (and, at the state level, to some extent, Georgia, which had this problem in the last two years) is a real head scratcher. At least in Georgia, there's something of a starting point for vote drilling in Atlanta.

      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

      by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:18:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Baton Rouge and New Orleans... (0+ / 0-)

        Should be starting points in Louisiana. But even there, we're losing Democrats.

        •  Why, they're growing again (0+ / 0-)

          and went bluer in 2012 than they did in 2008.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:23:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I meant in the legislature (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, James Allen

            I think Republicans are close to maxed out in Louisiana, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a clear Democratic trend reemerge there (although it will be a long time before the Pelican State is competitive in a typical presidential election). But the state Democratic Party is so beaten up and Gov. Jindal's style of politics is so aggressive that Democratic legislators even in seats like this one where they should be totally safe as Democrats are opportunistically switching parties for a bit of power while they can have it.

            •  But Jindal is at a low point (0+ / 0-)

              so I doubt he has nearly as much pull anymore.  Personally, I'm frustrated the party can't proactively work to stop these people in their tracks.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:34:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  In a purely political sense, (0+ / 0-)

              I kind of hoped something like the insanely regressive tax plans passed. That cuts across a lot of different regional and ethnic boundaries, I would think, and the only people who wouldn't vote for us in those circumstances would be diehards who would never, ever vote for us. In most other cases, we could do what I described above (send out constant reminders of who voted for something so terrible) and hope to reap the political rewards. Not that it would necessarily flip a chamber or two for us, but I would expect us to make serious gains. If we didn't, at least we'd have a much better idea of where we stand in the states in question and we could proceed accordingly.

              "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

              by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:41:03 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  That's what I am saying. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          How do we regroup and form a new coalition?

          In some ways, it's liberating. It's one thing to shatter a coalition in a big way over something like civil rights, which is what Democrats did in the 1960s*, but it looks like that's being done for us, without our approval, and that we have limited means of stopping it. If that's the case, why not embrace it and work to give people a more legitimate alternative? But that might be a very, very long-term proposition.

          I also wonder how much of the problem comes from institutional inertia.

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:36:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Sen. Landrieu is reelected... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Christopher Walker

            That would be a great step.

            •  True. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Gygaxian

              I have no idea how much she's personally involved in party building in the state, but at 57, she's still not all that old in general and certainly not by Senate standards. She'll probably be around for awhile, so I hope if/when she's reelected, she makes rejuvenating the state party a priority.

              "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

              by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:46:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The Landrieus (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Gygaxian

                Are they working to (re)build the dem party in Louisiana? They seem leek the perfect duo to make that happen?

                •  The Landrieus are focused on governing (0+ / 0-)

                  I'd argue that they give us perfect examples of how competent, moderate technocratic Democrats would govern in the future, so that moderate voters, especially in the suburbs, can see what a Democratic administration would look like.

                  As a citizen, I think this strategy is smart. Senator and Mayor Landrieu both have incredibly difficult and time-intensive jobs (Sen. Landrieu representing Louisiana as a Democrat at the federal level and Mayor Landrieu governing a rapidly-growing city with very-entrenched old-school and/or corrupt interests pushing back against reform).

                  23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                  by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 01:01:50 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  This covers parts of Point Coupee and (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades

      Iberville where Obama's performance was so pathetic it was almost mind-bloggling. It should be a very competitive race. I wonder if past Sen Marrionneaux can run again in 2015 since he's been out for a term.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:42:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is actually a surprise to me (0+ / 0-)

      Fannin and Guillory were DINOs. We will win back Guillory's seat easy.

      I'm assuming Ward just wanted influence. That said, this district is very winnable for the right Democrat. One from WBR or Pointe Coupee parishes would do well here.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 12:57:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ALG in KY (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem

    What's a good base for her in the state? I'd like to have one down before I attempt to make a map and spreadsheet. Democrats are obviously far more successful at the state level than at the federal level, although we can close for different reasons in 2004 and 2008. My gut tells me to air on the side of caution, perhaps adding in one more race where Democrats didn't do all that well, but would it make sense to include both ALG's own SOS results as well as those of Farmer/Comer race?

    "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

    by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:27:18 AM PDT

    •  I would look at... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, TrueBlueDem, ArkDem14, jncca

      Her SoS results from 2011, the Senate race in 2008, and the Senate race in 2010. Should give you a reasonable index.

      •  That seems reasonable. (0+ / 0-)

        I figured the COA results were almost too small in scale to really matter.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:41:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Bluegrass, non-Purchase western KY, and Louisville (4+ / 0-)

      are good places to start.  Owensboro is an old Democratic mill, as is Meade County (Brandenburg), Hancock County, and Muhlenberg.  In the Bluegrass, Lexington is an obvious core, but also Franklin County (Frankfort is here), Woodford, Clark, Marion, Nelson, and the like.  She also should run on coal to help do better in the east and in the west coalfields.  Greenup County (Ashland), Pike County, and Perry County (Hazard) should be targeted.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:33:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for this. (0+ / 0-)

        Although I was specifically looking for general starting point, your comments give me an idea of where to first look for when I begin to tweak.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:42:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueDem, KingofSpades, skibum59

        It's a strange coalition that KY Democrats need to cobble together -- some of the western parts of the state, blacks and some liberal whites in Louisville, the Bluegrass, and parts of the mountain east.

        And don't get killed too badly in southern Kentucky and the Cincy exurbs.

      •  What about McCracken (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, James Allen

        The HuffPo chronicle on McConnell basically said he's finally just left Paducah's nuclear processing plant to die because to clean up and build a new, modern nuclear facility would cost a lot more than the little temp stopgap funding measures he's earned so much loyalty from the region for over the years.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:46:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't forget she likely needs at least 64% (0+ / 0-)

        in Jefferson county to win.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:46:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Isn't Mongiardo from Hazard? (0+ / 0-)
    •  This is how the 2011 statewide races generally (7+ / 0-)

      went, assuming that the state was 50-50 which only really happened with the Treasurer's race:
       photo KY2011AveragePVI_zps98f85e64.png

      Jack Conway and Bruce Lunsford's maps looked generally like this just a few points redder overall. We can expect ALG to do a little better in Lexington where she's from and probably a little worse in western KY where McConnell historically overperforms generic R.

      •  I bow to you and your color-coded maps. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, aamail6, brooklyncyclones

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:55:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also, Hollenbach's opponent was from Lex (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        She is a councilwoman and daughter of ex-Mayor Crosbie.  She also got the endorsement of Mayor Jim Gray (D), the first gay mayor of a KY city.  He did that because of some anger over Hollenbach tacitly accepting the endorsement of evangelical nutcase Bryan Fischer back in 2007.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:57:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  heh (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, Jacques Kallis, jncca

        Shading by party vote makes it easy to pick out Elliott county.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 01:06:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  ALG actually did much better in Western KY (0+ / 0-)

        than the rest of the 2011 ticket, despite her opponent being from Todd County.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:39:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hey, guess who voted for cloture (11+ / 0-)

    It's Maine Sen. Susan Collins!

  •  NV-03: Ralston is not impressed by Bilbray rollout (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.ralstonflash.com/...

    None of this sounds fatal but she may need to up her game a bit.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:46:27 AM PDT

  •  Semi-Serious Question Regarding Michelle Nunn (0+ / 0-)

    If she were to get on the ballot as Sam Nunn, either by legally changing her name or by some weird quirk in the laws that I am not aware of, would this help her?

    "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

    by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:03:48 AM PDT

    •  I really doubt it (5+ / 0-)

      I think most people would be convinced she was utterly weird or trying to trick them.  Neither tends to go over well.

      Some states do have rules for when candidates change their names for political reasons: There's the case of the Idaho politician "Pro-Life".

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:21:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Somewhat more serious question: (0+ / 0-)

        if Nunn runs and wins, will she instantly be VP material?

        I am convinced her father will be talked up even after he passes, and perhaps the laziness of the press corps, plus the fact that she's young and from a red state and isn't Nancy Pelosi, will make her attractive as a candidate.

        Then again, there's the possibility of ALG.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:26:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The press corps would talk her up (4+ / 0-)

          I don't think she'd be seriously considered by whoever's the 2016 nominee though: less than two years in public office would raise unwelcome questions about her preparation for the job.  But if she keeps winning she'd be an appealing pick later on.

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 11:00:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I expect it to get really bad (0+ / 0-)

            if Democrats lose in 2016, especially if there's no female candidate who runs on our side. In fact, both potential Sen.-elects ALG and Michelle Nunn should prepare for the chatter to begin roughly two hours after the potentially bad results are read in November 2016. After all, it'd give the news departments an excuse to mention Sam Nunn, and possibly to replay the clips, a la Bill Maher, of the cigarettes  rolling out of the factories, the terrorists on the monkey bars, and any number of obese people with only their stomachs showing walking down the street.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 11:16:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  There are way more qualified female Dems (0+ / 0-)

          Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Sebelius, Napolitano, Solis, Baldwin, Shaheen, Warren, Murray, Cantwell, etc.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:41:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Gpack3

            I was just commenting on the absurd speculation that Sam Nunn was on every Democratic presidential contender's short list for VP.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:53:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think just having a Nunn in her name helps her (5+ / 0-)

      enough, and that's why nat'l and state Dems want her to run. She doesn't need to change her name to "Sam" or a "Samantha" if you will. That's just so silly.

      If she runs a good campaign, and has a battered and bruised opponent for the general (which is very likely), she has a decent shot to pull off a win.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:27:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My sarcasm doesn't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff

        really come through here, does it? LOL.

        Anyway, I'm bullish on her candidacy. At the very least, she should be able to make them fight for it, even if things go better for them than we anticipate. She's a novice, sure, but she's from a political family and will have important people helping her.

        I just hope we can get her, ALG (and we almost certainly will), and legitimately serious candidates (i.e. someone who  has run before or with a decent enough profile like Nunn) in either SC or TX. Ideally, both states would be great, but that seems greedy.

        At this point, I'd pick SC, because we've got two seats up, and I imagine it might be slightly easier to pool resources for both races. That means we need two candidates, of course, but at the very least, ECB would suffice as one, as sacman says. Which reminds me: just who the hell is being talked up for the race? Anybody at all?

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:38:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Tom Cotton rasied 606K in Q2 (5+ / 0-)

    I'd be shocked if he doesn't run for Senate with that kind of money.  Unless he's convinced Gene Jeffries will return and beat him with a 20th Century style campaign (okay, 19th and a half century style campaign).    

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:24:55 AM PDT

  •  MT-Sen: Lindeen not running. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, James Allen

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Hopefully Juneau runs or McGrath reconsiders.

    23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

    by liberal intellectual on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:31:35 AM PDT

    •  What's wrong with Walsh? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

      by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:40:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Untested running by himself. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        But if McGrath and Juneau don't run, he's next best.

        23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

        by liberal intellectual on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:41:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm trying to think of (0+ / 0-)

          some examples of LGs making the switch to some higher office (and I think a House seat in a smaller state with only a few districts, and certainly one district, qualities) without running on their own. Anyone got anything?

          "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

          by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:44:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  He has a solid profile (0+ / 0-)

          But he's only been lite gov for a few months, and running for Senate so soon would...well, fuck it, I mean, Rep. Daines is probably doing it.

          •  I think it's less of an issue (0+ / 0-)

            when you (a) are already in public office in some regard and (b) have a legitimate series of accomplishments behind you, which his military career qualifies as. If anything, it can be spun as the "I'm not a career politician" stuff.

            Correct me if I am wrong, but he doesn't lose his current job if he runs, right? I mean, there's no reason for him to resign, and he's not up again for another few years...right?

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:55:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's the same for all of the statewide electeds (0+ / 0-)

              They were elected or reelected last year. It'd even be a free shot for Gov. Bullock, not that I think he's even considering the race.

              •  This might be exceptionally large wishful thinking (0+ / 0-)

                on my part, but wouldn't it be less of an issue for Walsh considering he's not governor, actually making him the stronger candidate in that regard?

                "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

                by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 11:03:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I'd definitely be interested (0+ / 0-)

            in seeing some polling on him. If he's got high enough name recognition to be seen as a figure in the state, would it be somewhat safer to assume this negates him not running on his own?

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:57:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  So was Bill Enyart (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson

          Walsh held the same job in Montana as Enyart, Adjutant General of the National Guard.

          That doesn't guarantee he's going to be a good candidate, but we did fine with Enyart.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:23:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Superintendent Juneau just retweeted... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Gygaxian

      The auditor's tweet announcing her decision. Read into that what you will.

    •  Didn't people mention the Insurance Commissioner? (0+ / 0-)

      Not that I'd expect she'd run.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 11:00:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  For the love of God. (5+ / 0-)

    Blarghle blarghle blahaha. Great job, Montana Democrats.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 10:35:40 AM PDT

  •  Still nothing Shermanesque from Sen. Collins (7+ / 0-)

    These journalists need to learn to listen for a clearly articulated denial.

  •  ME-GOV: LePage's fundraising is coming in third (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Tayya, JBraden
    Two candidates preparing to face off against incumbent Republican Paul LePage in the 2014 governor’s race raised hundreds of thousands of dollars in the first half of 2013, while LePage saw his fundraising efforts slip.
    http://bangordailynews.com/...
  •  Trivia (6+ / 0-)

    I met with Sen. Brian Schatz yesterday, and he mentioned that someone at CRS had told him that he was the second-youngest senior Senator from a state in the body's history.  He was not told, however, who was the youngest.  Google is no help.  Any ideas?

  •  Obama Should Go All West Wing on Susan Collins (3+ / 0-)

    Does anyone remember the episode where the staff struggled with how to get Sen. Seth Gillette on a Blue Ribbon Commission for Social Security? Toby decided that it would be easiest if they announced that he decided to accept the position, even though he hadn't, because the public pressure would force him to. (Such is the power of the White House.)

    Why not do something similar with Sen. Collins, but perhaps a little less direct? Why not have key Democrats talk her up and have Obama himself make a direct plea? Would she still turn it down? Anything's possible, and this could easily backfire, but hey, it's an option worth mulling over.

    "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

    by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:35:52 PM PDT

    •  She obviously doesn't want to look like she wants (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Christopher Walker

      to get the nod in case she doesn't. It would give whoever decides to try to teabag her more ammo. But I think she would secretly love it. It gives her an easy out of the Krazy Konservative Kaucus, she doesnt have to face a bruising primary where she'll have to run to the right of Mussilini, and she'll get her picture on the wall forever. Obama gets another woman in the cabinet and another Republican to put the bipartisan feather in his cap. Democrats get an easy Senate seat.

      •  If she really wants it, there are easy enough (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        ways she can communicate that, no?  (I mean, if all of our phone calls are being tracked to some degree... :])

        But if Democrats believe she really wants it, or could at least be talked into taking it, I imagine the White House is being pressured in ways we can only begin to imagine. They'd be nuts not to do so. I mean, a Senate seat in Maine for us seems likely if she's not the nominee, and if that happens, it makes control FAR more likely.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:46:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not sure why (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, JBraden

      that would be necessary. If Obama wants her for the position, he should just discuss the opportunity with her in private. Her statements so far suggest to me that she'd at least entertain the offer. And if she says no, she says no, and he can move on to another pick.

      •  I was partially kidding. (0+ / 0-)

        As I said above, if she really wants it, or could at least be talked into it, it's probably not a secret. Democrats are probably begging Obama to appoint her, because that makes Democratic control of the Senate that much more likely.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:47:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's possible Obama doesn't want to pick her (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, itskevin, askew, jncca

      There are some big political advantages to getting her there, but it's always possible Obama doesn't think she'd do a good job or would be too hard to work with.  Homeland Security's not like an Ambassadorship to some nice allied country or very small place that you can just give out for political reasons: people can die if you have the wrong person in charge here.  If Obama thinks there's someone better qualified than her, I can't really blame him for passing her up.    

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:45:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No doubt. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, Darth Jeff

        I don't really know whether she'd be qualified, but at the very least, she doesn't appear to be Harriet Miers.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:48:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's also if she is qualified but not the most (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          qualified.

          Let's say Obama limits the choices to Collins and someone else, say former Admiral Thad Allen.  Obama decides both could do the job but Allen would be a better fit.  Picking Allen gets him nothing politically while Collins does.  However, Obama believes that under Allen, Homeland Security will be at least somewhat better able to handle a disaster or prevent a terrorist attack.  

          In such a situation, I could hardly blame Obama for passing on the political windfall of picking Collins.  Obviously this is just a big hypothetical scenario but it's a real kind of thing to consider when trying to fill a vital department.

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 01:15:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not to mention, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Darth Jeff, jncca

            if Collins isn't the most qualified person for the job, and ends up dropping the ball on something major, that comes back to bite Obama in the ass, because it'll look like he appointed her solely to get her senate seat, even though she may not be the most competent one for the job.

          •  I completely agree. (0+ / 0-)

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:10:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Beyond the electoral impact, I think that's (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, itskevin, ArkDem14

        why she would be a good pick. Given her time on the HS committee, she is probably qualified. She would also sail through confirmation, and Obama would probably get some credit for a bipartisan pick.

        But yeah, there could be a governor or someone who worked at DHS that is more qualified and I wouldnt blame him for picking that person.

        But I do think on the merits, Collins would be a good choice.

      •  Thing is (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JohnnyBoston, skibum59, ArkDem14, geoneb

        It's arguable nobody's qualified to run the place, simply because the 22 separate agencies rammed together into one cabinet department to show we were Doing Something to Keep America Safe (incidentally, Senate Democrats who initially proposed this ought to still be ashamed) aren't integrated and have a complicated command structure. I think the entire thing ought to be dismantled, personally. Probably could get a good amount of bipartisan support for that.

    •  The way to make that work (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      Would be for Obama to say "who we really want is Susan Collins" and allow the pressure to build, not "Collins has already accepted the job" a la Gillettte. The latter way has the potential to horribly backfire

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:30:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Some comments up above relate to a Reagan (9+ / 0-)

    appearance on the Tonight show in 1975 I just saw replayed on TCM yesterday.

    Reagan had been out of office for two months, and had not declared for Prez against Ford yet.  He was testing out some buzz phrases when he mentioned the "90 billion dollar budget deficit".

    He really took care of that one....

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:44:56 PM PDT

    •  I'd recommend (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Watching the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate (there was only one that year). It's fascinating, not only in how the stagecraft of these events has altered--the moment where the two come out and shake hands is not there, both guys are standing at the podium when the program starts, and the questions are asked by a panel of journalists which is something we need to bring back, but Reagan's performance is something else. He looks confident, presidential, and eager, but every time he opens his mouth, his content is embarrassingly banal, wrong, or just outright deceptive. He literally said that we could clear out the deficit by just eliminating waste, fraud and abuse, a complete cliche now, and something that was silly even then. It's unreal just how poorly he does if you know the basics of policy, though by that point nobody cared, Carter was too hated and any credible alternative would do.

      •  Actually, people believed him (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, MrLiberal, madmojo, jncca

        While it seems banal and obtuse now, it was revolutionary and utterly believable then... and it was also likely true.  Finding 90 billion in waste was not an impossible task back then.

        But even that claim was rendered irrelevant by the genuine big lie of voodoo economics, that we could cut taxes and raise military spending at the same time as balancing the budget.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:07:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends on what you consider waste (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kleinburger, skibum59, gabjoh, JGibson

          Probably most of us here would probably consider about $500-$600 billion of the $700 billion defense budget to be wasted. Most Tea Partiers consider Social Security to be a waste. "Waste" is a weasel word, it devolves the meaning onto the listener to fill with whatever they dislike. You gotta be specific there.

          Fraud and abuse, on the other hand, are miniscule. Though back during the early 19th century, the Treasury was constantly getting looted by politicians who would steal a bunch of cash and then leave the country. So James Monroe probably would have had a good argument there.

          •  Fraud and abuse are by definition not waste (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, sacman701

            Waste at the time most obviously existed in redundant military bases.  Many of those have been closed over the past 30 years, resulting in a significant savings.

            However you define it, you could cut 90 billion from the military or from social security or whatever you think is ideologically bad.  That's not the point though, as the "waste" wasn't enumerated, meaning Reagan didn't say he'd cut 90 billion from social security.

            Circa 1980 the government was far less efficient and far more redundant than it is even now.  A lot of wasteful baloney has in fact been cut over the past three decades, as money has gotten tighter.

            Reagan's claims about waster weren't silly, and people didn't see them that way, and while there may not have been 90 billion of genuine waste that could be cut, there is no doubt there was billions of dollars of waste that was in fact eliminated over the decades, again most obviously in military bases.

            Reagan's campaign shenanigans though were to use the genuine waste that existed to some degree, to cover his budget busting lunacy of cutting taxes and increasing military spending, which a lot of people somehow believed would "work".

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:32:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  huh? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            I don't think that anyone to the right of Dennis Kucinich would seriously propose cutting the defense budget by 80%. Also, most tea partiers collect Social Security every month and probably consider it sacred because they earned it. They think any spending on poor people is waste.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:58:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hell (0+ / 0-)

              I don't think Dennis Kucinich would seriously advocate for a cut that large.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:11:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Few politicians would (0+ / 0-)

              Due to a variety of considerations, like defense contractor jobs. I'd rather not get into a policy fight here, though it would be hard to convince me that spending merely double what the nation that spends the second-most on military after us would leave this country completely defenseless, considering that we have excellent natural defenses (namely two huge oceans) and two friendly neighbors. That money could educate kids, rather than going to something as absolutely worthless to the public as military hegemony.

      •  That's not just the debate, though. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, The Caped Composer

        That last sentence of yours, about how poorly he does if you know the basics of policy, I would argue really applies to his entire presidency.

        I don't recall who it was, but there was a stand-up comic a while back who said that Reagan's greatest strength was saying absolutely nothing but making it sound like he'd just said something profound.  I believe the example he used was Reagan voice "Well, I'll tell you...if you leave a bicycle pump out in the rain overnight, the next day, you'll find that.....yes, next question!"

  •  TN-04: DesJarlais has utterly sucky Q2 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Gygaxian, bythesea

    He raised only $39K, compared to $303K for Senator Jim Tracy and $100K for Rep. Joe Carr.  Roll Call has a source claiming DesJarlais will run again and who knows, maybe the clown car will let him survive a primary (no runoffs in Tennessee).  But you have to wonder if DesJarlais has his heart set for a very tough reelection.    

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 12:48:59 PM PDT

  •  HI-Sen (7+ / 0-)

    Brian Schatz gets Sen. Tom Harkin's endorsement:

    I'm proud to endorse my friend and colleague Brian Schatz.

    Brian is a committed progressive who has dedicated his life to public service. He was recently appointed Senator after serving as Hawaii's Lieutenant Governor, and he is running for re-election in 2014. Brian has already made his mark in the Senate by taking a leadership role on issues relating to climate change and clean energy, and at 40 years old, he has a long and promising career ahead of him.

    He has the compassion and the leadership skills that the Senate needs. Before he entered politics, Brian built up a career in community service and the nonprofit sector, promoting education for needy children.

    On the national security side, he advocates further reductions in nuclear weapons and urges an accelerated withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

    Since he came to the Senate, Brian has continued to stand up for progressive causes. I've worked with him closely on a number of critical issues, from student loans to clean energy to raising the minimum wage, and I've seen what he can get done. I know how he will fight for our values, and I know how badly the Senate needs him in 2014.

    With your help, we can keep this strong progressive in the Senate in 2014.

  •  Liz Cheney will run for Senate next year (6+ / 0-)

    in WY challenging Mike Enzi, according to Ed Henry.

  •  Liz Cheney is IN per DKE Twitter. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux

    We have a competitive Senate race in Wyoming! Whoäd thought. For all the wrong reasons, though.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 01:56:54 PM PDT

  •  WY-Sen: It's on (6+ / 0-)

    According to Politico, MSNBC, and National Journal tweets, Liz Cheney will challenge Mike Enzi.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 01:57:16 PM PDT

    •  Isn't Enzi very popular? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      I really don't see much of an opening here for Cheney.  What would she run against him on?  He's a solid conservative and these small state Senators typically have very good constituent services.

      Honestly, even if Freudenthal ran I bet he'd lose by low double-digits.  Wyoming might elect a Democratic Governor, but not to the U.S. Senate.

    •  Erick Erickson endorsed her today ... (0+ / 0-)

      ... on his little website.  Normally I would say that I hope the crazies can rally the troops to support the bigger wackadoodle, but Wyoming is just about as hard as any state for a Democrat to be elected to the Senate.

  •  one of the things i believe in is always (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, bjssp

    running good political candidates in open seats, even in hostile territory. Even red states like TN have had close open seat races at times.

    One state I've wondered about is Alabama. If Shelby retires in 2016, I wouldn't expect a dem to win; but how would running Bud Cramer do as a "just in case"?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:06:40 PM PDT

  •  It would be great if some Dem ran in WY-SEN (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, MrLiberal, JBraden, betelgeux

    if not Freudenthal, perhaps a state legislator.

    It will be very, very difficult, but still you never know.

    I mean, the chances of us winning are low, but they are zero if we dont run anyone.

    •  Could always set someone up to win later (7+ / 0-)

      Since we have such a tiny bench in the state, a person who runs a respectable race could be set up well to run for a lower office where voters are less partisan down the line.  Wyoming historically has been quite willing to elect Democratic Governors so who knows.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:54:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I make this argument all the time. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff

        Unless we plan to write off huge swathes of the country, we have to focus on coalition building at some point. Resources are finite, sure, but each state presents us with a different set of opportunities. This seems as good as any for Wyoming, and if we can get someone who ends up not winning but with good favorables, we can run this person again. We'd also gain valuable info about mobilization for future races.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:27:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  How about the guy who ran in 2008? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, JBraden

      His name is Chris Rothfuss, and he's now a State Senator (D) for Albany County. He was elected in 2010 and is now the Minority Leader, according to his legislative bio.

      "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

      by MrLiberal on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:13:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Other WY Dems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, bjssp

      Gary Trauner - 2008/10 House candidate, but does he still live in the state?

      Bruce Salzburg - state AG under Dave Freudenthal

      Nancy Freudenthal - she's a federal judge now, and she has the name.

      LIZ CHENEY 2014: Vote for me, or my dad will shoot you in the face.

      28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

      by BluntDiplomat on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:23:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A former State AG isn't a bad choice by any means, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BluntDiplomat

        even if he's not exactly a huge name.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:31:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It's nice to know (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, JBraden, geoneb, betelgeux, ehstronghold

    Obama is finally getting to appoint Richard Cordray. Elizabeth Warren must be pretty happy too.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:53:16 PM PDT

  •  A Republican here in Oregon posts "rumors" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA, BoswellSupporter, ArkDem14

    about who will run for what.

    According to him State Rep. Dennis Richardson down in Southern Oregon will run for governor. If so, he's far too conservative to get elected statewide and will easily lose to Governor Kitzhaber.

    He says State Rep. Bruce Hanna of Roseburg, former Republican leader and Co-Speaker of the State House will run against DeFazio. This would be a good get for them, as Hanna is an experienced pol and a good fundraiser. He'd be their strongest candidate in  along time against DeFazio. DeFazio should still beat him. DeFazio is relatively popular in a Dem-leaning district that is even more Democratic down-ballot. Hanna has nothing to convince people who've been happily voting for DeFazio for decades to reconsider that. Hanna is no longer in leadership, so the idea of him running for something else makes sense.

    He says State Rep. Julie Parrish of West Linn will run against Kurt Schrader. Parrish would also be a strong recruit, especially given her base in a Dem-leaning suburb in Clackamas County. I don't know why she'd give up her state house seat, though.

    He says State Senator Jackie Winters of Salem is not going to retire, but Fred Thompson, the man who lost to Kurt Schrader last fall, will also run for the Republican nomination. Thompson is a guy we could beat in an R+2 district, especially if he alienates moderates and public employees in the district who love Jackie. I don't know if she could be beaten, but I am not a Republican primary voter either.

    He also says Shawn Lindsay and Katie Eyre, both Republicans swept in in 2010 and out in 2012 in the Hillsboro area, will run again. Lindsay had said he'd consider it right after he lost last fall, but later formed a PAC that to me seemed to indicate otherwise. Huh.

    Anyway, both won open seats in 2010, both are Dem-leaning districts, and both continued to trend Dem in 2012, so I don't see why they'd win their seats back in 2014 unless the year turns awful for us.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:31:26 PM PDT

  •  List of sponsors of (11+ / 0-)

    Constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage includes Chris Smith and Frank Wolf.

    they're like, just sooooo moderate, you guys!

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:43:03 PM PDT

  •  Feeling good about CA-31 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    The way it works in California now is that the two highest vote-getters in the initial nonpartisan (sorta) primary advance to the general, right? No way Gary Miller is going to allow another Republican to challenge him enough that the other GOPer goes to the general. Especially now that he's settled into the seat.

    And the district voted for Obama, right? So we don't need to worry too much about electability, and can focus on the most progressive, likeable candidate, correct? Awesome.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 03:59:30 PM PDT

    •  That's pretty much the top-two (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      Party affiliations are listed on the ballot but there's nothing stopping a registered Dem from supporting a Republican or whatever.  

      For us to have another 2012 situation there'd need to be another moderately strong GOPer on the ballot: a Some Dude probably won't cut it.  Doesn't look like someone as strong as Bob Dutton will enter the race against Miller.      

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 04:14:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Pretty Much (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, jj32

      I'd say Miller's odds at this point are remarkably slim. Probably his best case is if Baca somehow finishes second and his enemies decide to throw the election to Miller and run someone else for an easy win in 2016. Which is possible, but not all that likely. More likely Miller faces someone else and loses handily, or if it's Baca, he gets enough support to win, and then other Democrats take him on in 2016.

  •  The Grimes campaign changed (11+ / 0-)

    the main website domain name to alisonforkentucky.com

  •  MT-Sen: Schweitzer's Lt. Gov. considering (6+ / 0-)

    http://billingsgazette.com/...
    I just hope one of them takes it.  Him, Juneau, Walsh, preferably the former two.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:32:38 PM PDT

    •  Reminds me of Angus King (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      an old timer who wants something to cap his career.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:33:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bohlinger is thinking of running as a Democrat(!) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, James Allen, jncca

      that's a noted distinction as he was a Republican as Lt. Gov. (and not elected, but ran with Schweitzer as running mate).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:34:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll take literally any statewide Dem (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, ArkDem14, JBraden, madmojo, jncca

      Though I'm personally pushing for Juneau, since her profile seems to make the most sense to me. Plus, she's fairly young for a Senator (46), so that gives us more potential terms. None of them are a Schweitzer, but they don't have to be.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:58:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  twohundredseventy said he's not a good choice (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      Our fellow DKEer seems personally knowledgeable about the state, and he was unequivocal the L.G. is not a politician capable of taking on something like this.

      Just one man's opinion, but still, I'm inclined to take his word for it.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 07:43:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Who? Bohlinger or Walsh? (0+ / 0-)

        I tend to agree.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 07:54:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Bohlinger has actually run for office before (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        which Walsh had not. Bohlinger served in both houses of Montana's state legislature as a Republican.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:07:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, skibum59

        270 said that the current L.G., Walsh, is not a good choice. He never said anything about the previous L.G. (who is a Republican, just fyi, who is apparently considering as a Democrat now).

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:10:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, he is 77 years old (0+ / 0-)

      If elected, with Sen. Levin retiring, he would be the seventh oldest senator (born one day after Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas).

      Needless to say, if he runs as an indie and a strong Democrat runs as well, we can kiss this seat goodbye.

      •  Why would he run as an Indie? (0+ / 0-)

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:33:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A fine article on the deal in the Senate today: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 06:36:10 PM PDT

  •  Sen. Enzi's wide-eyed shock over Liz Cheney (5+ / 0-)

    "I thought we were friends." Oh please. He told The New York Times Cheney had called him several months ago to tell him she might run. He indicated he was aware of a possible primary challenge and that the Cheneys wanted him to retire. Everybody was blowing up my Twitter feed earlier with sad faces and expressions of sympathy for Enzi, who is the very definition of a back-bencher in the Senate and would have to be the biggest idiot in the world to seriously believe Liz Cheney would defer to him. I don't think Enzi is the biggest idiot in the world -- clearly, kudos to him for snowing virtually the entire punditocracy into feeling bad for this kindly old man who was suddenly betrayed by a close ally.

    Since Democrats can't compete in Wyoming, at least without Dave Freudenthal in the race (and even then, at best we could hope the NRSC had to spend a million or two bucks there instead of in Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Kentucky, or Louisiana), I would prefer Enzi remain in the Senate than have the frothing crazy caucus increase by one. But I think Enzi's reaction here was totally disingenuous, and it's reflective of the visceral loathing for anything Cheney in the Beltway media that seemingly everyone fell for it.

  •  UT State Senator Aaron Osmond wants to end (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, jncca

    compulsory education. http://www.deseretnews.com/...

    First, yes, he's from that family of Osmonds. Not surprisingly, he's a Republican. A really, really far-right Republican, even by Utah standards. I basically laid out how crazy he is in a diary, but the TLDR version is, he does not like your godless compulsory public education that educates you on safe sex and does things other than make you a corporate sheep, and wants to rip them apart.

    Unfortunately, he didn't even get any opposition in the last election, so this has little electoral ramifications for him, but depending on which other Utah pols agree with him, this could ruin a few other Republican careers in the legislature.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:34:26 PM PDT

  •  Mitch Daniels tried to censor academic writings (9+ / 0-)

    and courses as Indiana Governor, according to the AP. He is now President of Purdue.

    http://www.indystar.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 08:55:16 PM PDT

  •  LOL, Rand Paul threw shade at Liz Cheney (13+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    “When I heard Liz Cheney was running for Senate I wondered if she was running in her home state of Virginia,” Paul said.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 09:26:04 PM PDT

  •  New Virginia Q-poll (no VA-Gov numbers yet) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    No surprise, Quinnipiac has better favorables/job approvals for McDonnell than PPP shows, which is typical of PPP to have worse numbers for most pols than most other pollsters.

    Link here:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    Q-poll says McDonnell at 36-33 favorable and 46-37 job approval.  This is still a clear downward trend over time, not merely statistical noise.  They had his favorables at 42-22 in March and 40-23 in May, and 36-33 now.  They had his job approvals at 53-26 in March and 49-28 in May, and 46-37 now.  You'll notice that the favorables have tanked more than job approvals, which makes sense.  The gift scandal is personal rather than policy, and McDonnell's job performance is bolstered by the popular transportation plan.

    The VA-Gov numbers aren't out yet, my guess is they relesae those tomorrow.  As usual, Q-poll and PPP seem to poll in tandem, and it happens so often that I'm tending to think it's deliberate.  The timing is too big a coincidence.

    I'm guessing Q has McAuliffe slightly ahead, just like previously and just like PPP now.  But we'll see.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 05:09:54 AM PDT

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