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9:30 As Yogi Berra said, "It gets late early out there." It's late for me so I'm going to call it a night. I may check back later but I probably will not update this. Good luck to Supervisor Perez!

9:29: Leticia Perez 20,384            51.7%
     Andy Vidak    19,062            48.3%

What the SOS site has now that they added Fresno County to the totals. Kings County though is not included in the votes here however.

9:26: Perez now at 37% in Tulare County, up a bit from 34%. Hope the trend keeps going her way.
V 4,420
P 2,533

9:04: I'd recommend this twitter account too for updates, KernQuirks: https://twitter.com/...

8:56 No updates yet but just remember, the results did not look too good on primary night so it could turn around, especially with absentee ballots mostly reporting. If more precincts (especially from Fresno,) start reporting and Vidak stays where he is, then I'll be worried.

8:46 Update from AD-52 where State Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) left to become congresswoman from the 35th district. Right now
Leon 29.4%, (I) (formerly a Republican)
 Rodriguez 15.4% (D)
Pineda 15.1% (R)

6 Dems are running against 1 Rep and the Independent. This could be the 2nd time in the San Bernardino area that a Dem does not make the top two in a heavily Dem district.

8:35 From adding up the results posted at 8:31 and the results posted at 8:26 and 8:09, I have:
Vidak 29,472 55.6%
Perez 23,564 44.4%

We really need to clean up on the election day votes. This is not looking too good.

8:31 First votes appearing on the SOS page.
Leticia Perez 9,376     49.9%
Andy Vidak    9,422             50.1%

This is not the news I was hoping for. Even though these are mostly absentee, Vidak is leading with only Kern and Tulare showing up on the SOS page. Also, it shows 48.7% of precincts reporting in Kern and if Perez is only winning 58% in Kern with that much in, it's not good. Hopefully the next results are coming from the more Democratic areas.

8:26 Now all the counties have reported their absentees.
Kings County: Vidak 10,553 75% Perez 3,469 25% (hat tips to DrPhillips and Darth Jeff)

Tulare County:
Vidak 4277 66%
Perez 2243 34%

8:21: And just as I post that, I find out Perez is leading 58-42 in the absentees in Kern County (hat tip to DrPhillips.) Good margin for Perez but if she wants to win, she needs in my opinion to get 65% of the total vote from Kern County.

8:20: This could be a very long night (and few weeks, not all counting should be done until August 2nd.) The only county to report early votes so far is Fresno, no word on Kern, Kings or Tulare.

8:15: The Fresno CBS Twitter feed is going to be following the election too: https://twitter.com/...

8:12: If anyone has other links for results, post in the comments below.

8:09 First votes in, early votes from Fresno County. Here they are:
LETICIA PEREZ        10719 53.02%
ANDY VIDAK        9497    46.98%

The baseline for a 51% win for Leticia was 59% in Fresno County but keep in mind that the first votes always lean Republican (in 2010, Boxer was tied statewide in the early vote but won by 10 when everything was counted.)

8:02: county election websites sometimes report results before the SOS page so I will provide those:

Fresno County: http://www.co.fresno.ca.us/...
Kern County: http://elections.co.kern.ca.us/...
Kings County: http://www.countyofkings.com/...

Update: I will be liveblogging the results as they come in. The polls close at 8pm in California and the link to the election results are here: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...

A few things to keep in mind: early votes (absentee ballots) usually report first and will be on the SOS page, even if the page says 0% of precincts reporting (because the votes are in absentee votes, not election day votes from precincts.) Also, these absentee votes that report first historically lean Republican so do not get scared if Vidak is leading a little bit (if he's ahead with 55%+, then that may be another story.)

======================

Cross posted on my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ which has more election analysis. For facebook updates, go here: https://www.facebook.com/...

On May 21st, 2013, the voters of California's SD-16 (a State Senate District spanning Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern Counties,) voted in a special election for State Senate. This election is pivotal for the Democrats in order to maintain their 2/3rd majority there which allows them to pass legislation more easily. The previous State Senator, Michael Rubio (D) had retired in order to accept a lobbying position at Chevron. Rubio recently came under fire from Democratic pundits for not challenging former State Sen. David Valadao (R) in a race for California's 21st Congressional district which covered much of Rubio's district. Valadao went on to win with 58% of the vote, despite President Obama winning 54% in the same district. Rubio now may cause the Republicans to win another seat, this time his State Senate district.

The SD-16 race so far has been very close. The Democrats nominated Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez (D) whose campaign platform is increasing the minimum wage and supporting the high speed rail project (the high speed rail project is a very contentious issue in the Central Valley with some voters supporting it due to job creation and others opposing it saying it is a waste of tax dollars.) The Republicans have nominated Andy Vidak (R), a rancher from Kings County who ran against Rep. Jim Costa (D) in 2010 under similar district lines and nearly beat Costa. This race is drawing attention, $400,000 was spent on TV ads between June 9th and July 6th and experts predict that $4.5 million will be spent on the race. Even though President Obama won 58% of the vote in 2008 in this district, Vidak nearly won the primary, winning 49.8% of the vote on May 21st, 2013. This primary featured candidates from all parties and if no candidate received 50% of the vote or more, there would be a July 23rd runoff. Vidak at first seemed to have won with 51.9% of the vote on the morning after election day but after late provisional ballots were counted, his vote percentage dropped to 49.8%. Perez received about 43% of the vote but the rest of the votes that Perez and Vidak did not win went to Democrats so hopefully Perez can win over those voters. This post though will feature a description of the district and show the county baselines for Perez.

I previously wrote a similar post focusing more on turnout in SD-16 and why Leticia Perez should not concede. It was written just after the May 21st primary. It can be found here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/...

 photo District_Map_CA-SD-16_zps8fa5b652.png

map of SD-16:

President Obama's 2008 numbers in SD-16: http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

Supervisor Perez's numbers in the 2013 primary: http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

Fresno County:
The Fresno County part of this district is heavily Hispanic. It excludes the more conservative areas such as Clovis and contains inner city Fresno and some farming areas in the western part of the county, including the area along the I-5 with the "Congress created the dust bowl" signs. Even though the sign owners may be Republicans, the large majority of the population in this part of the district are Hispanics. Many of them however are migrant workers who do not have a permanent residence and even more may be undocumented. This part of the district will be helped by the high speed rail which will be built through Fresno and create jobs there. Jobs are an important issue here for voters who were hurt by the 2008 foreclosure crisis. This area usually votes Democratic (President Obama won around 66% of the vote here in 2008,) but can Perez motivate enough Democrats in this district, especially Hispanic ones to turn out in this off year special election?

Kings County:
Kings County is 50% Hispanic but that number should not fool anyone, it is a heavily Republican area, voting 57% for Romney in 2012. Kings County is also Vidak's home county. The main city here is Hanford and the main industry is farming (prisons also have a presence here too.) Ranching and farming is also large here but the turnout among Hispanic voters is low, allowing the white voters who generally vote 70%+ Republican in this district (it is culturally closer to Texas than Los Angeles, despite being around 2.5 hours from Los Angeles and much farther from Texas.) Despite having lower turnout in 2008 than the Kern County part of SD-16, Kings County had higher turnout in the 2013 primary which hurt Perez, especially since Kings County voted 74% for Vidak.

Tulare County:
Tulare County is similar to Kings County demographically and economically. SD-16 only represents part of Tulare County and that part of Tulare County voted for President Obama in 2008. Vidak won 59% of the vote in that portion though, mainly due to lower Hispanic turnout (this portion of Tulare County represents rural areas with large populations of Hispanic farm workers.) This district also excludes the major urban areas in Tulare County such as Visalia.

Kern County:
Perez needs to perform extremely well here in order to win. Although Kern County as a whole voted 57% for Romney, this part of Kern County is heavily Democratic and contains heavily Hispanic areas such as Delano and eastern Bakersfield. Delano was the former headquarters for Cesar Chavez and like other towns in the district such as Wasco, has a large agricultural presence. Perez actually underperformed President Obama the least here, he won about 65% of the vote in 2008 in this part of SD-16 and she won about 60%. The reason is that this is her home area. Many volunteers from Los Angeles were working hard in the district last weekend (I helped volunteer with a group last April in Bakersfield and noticed that the minimum wage platform was very helpful with the voters I talked to,) so hopefully they can help Perez win big here.

Here are the benchmarks from each county for Perez to win with about 51%, assuming turnout rates are similar to the primary. To calculate the benchmarks, I relied on the results from the May 21st primary.

Fresno: Perez 59-41
Kern: Perez 66-34
Kings: Perez 27-73
Tulare: Perez 42-58

Turnout:
The Central Valley has a long history of having low Democratic turnout in non Presidential elections. The 2010 midterms had low turnout where Rep. Jim Costa (D) nearly lost his seat which voted 59% for President Obama. Jerry Brown also won 42% of the vote in Fresno County, despite voting 50% for President Obama in 2012. Brown also faced Whitman who was unpopular with most Hispanics due to the housekeeper issue. Another turnout fact about the Central Valley is that many provisional ballots are counted after election day and these ballots tend to favor Democrats (for example, Costa won 54.6% by election day morning but that increased to 57.9% once the provisional ballots were counted. Ballots counted after election day also include absentee ballots dropped off at polling places on election day.) Costa also appeared to have lost in 2010 until the provisional reported and gave him a win. In 2012, President Obama lost Fresno by 2% before the provisionals were counted and won by 2% when they were counted. The example that applies to this race is the May 21st primary where Vidak won with 51.9% of the vote and Perez conceded but the provisional ballots reduced Vidak's percentage to 49.8%. If Vidak does not receive more than 52% of the vote by the morning of Wednesday, July 24th, then expect a long wait until all the votes are counted.

Final Questions:

Overall, on election night, keep three questions while watching the returns: 1. Is Fresno County voting strongly for Perez the same way Kern County probably will? 2. Is Kings County having higher or lower turnout than Kern County which had higher turnout in 2008 but lower turnout in the 2013 primary? 3. If Vidak is ahead by Wednesday morning, did he win less than 52% of the vote so the provisionals can make up the ground? Keep these questions in mind to find out who will control this crucial seat for the 2/3rd majority in the California State Senate.

*Disclaimer: while I volunteered for this race last April, the views espoused in this article do not express the views of Supervisor Perez's campaign. This article espouses my views only.

Tue Jul 23, 2013 at  9:12 PM PT: 9:09: There is also an open thread on the front page of DKE: http://www.dailykos.com/...


Poll

Will Supervisor Perez win?

41%32 votes
35%28 votes
23%18 votes

| 78 votes | Vote | Results

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