Hello, writers. I was going to write about something else this week, but find myself brimming over with a few things I want to say about the whole J.K. Rowling/Robert Galbraith thing, or more particularly about the coverage of it.
For those who avoid clicking on any headline that includes the word “Rowling”:
About ten days ago, it was revealed by a friend of one of Rowling's lawyers (now there's a lawsuit waiting to happen) that a new mystery novel, Cuckoo's Calling by Robert Galbraith, was actually the work of Ms. Rowling. The book quickly went to #1 on amazon's bestseller list.
Nice work if you can get it. I immediately emailed my agent and asked to have it quietly leaked that Jinx was really by J.K. Rowling. Unfortunately the response I got was of the “lol” variety.
What the media seem unsure about is how well Robert Galbraith was doing without Ms. Rowling's help.
CNN called his sales performance “dismal”. Of course no one at CNN is really sure what these “book” things are anyway, so we'll disregard their response. The Independent called it, for no apparent reason, a “bestseller”. Various news agencies variously reported his sales as 1,500 or 8,500 copies over a three month period.
Sad to say: Either figure would indicate that Mr. Galbraith was doing quite respectably.
But both figures seemed to be pulled from the air. Nobody knows how many copies a book sells except the publisher and the author. And even then, they seldom know three months out.
So my first response on reading “1500” was-- where? And according to whom? The book was published in both the UK and the US. Fifteen hundred in the UK, which has a population only 20% that of the US, would be pretty good. But then UK publishers also sell to the Commonwealth, which in bookselling terms seems to mostly mean Australia. (Canada is sometimes part of the US market. Depending.)
Fifteen hundred in the US, in three months, for a debut author, wouldn't be too bad either. Especially if the number came from Nielsen Bookscan. Nielsen Bookscan reports weekly sales numbers for books in the US. (Not Canada, the UK, Australia, etc.) By its own calculations, it captures roughly 70% of retail book sales. However, I've found from comparing it to my own royalty statements that it seems to capture only a small fraction of my sales.
If the figure comes from the publishers, then it's uncheckable. Publishers traditionally hold this info pretty close to their chests. Take a favorite book that wasn't a bestseller, and try to find out how many copies it sold. Go ahead, I'll wait.
So with that paucity of information, the media turns to what is available: amazon sales ranks. These are right there, for every book, for everyone to see. According to the Guardian, Cuckoo's Calling was at 4,709 on amazon before people found out who Robert Galbraith was. (British amazon, I'm guessing.) Meaning that of the several million titles available on amazon, it was the 4709th best-selling.
Okay. 4,709 is damn good for a debut writer. I've personally never gotten higher than the 4,000s, and my sojourns there have been brief. These sales ranks are changed “hourly” according to amazon (really more like three-hourly). And all they show is that someone's bought the book on amazon. Or several people have bought the book. I read a blog post by a guy who'd manipulated his own book into the 900s by getting ten friends to buy it within an hour.
The 100,000s is a more usual neighborhood for a debut novelist to hang out in.
Many people have tried to figure out how amazon sales ranks correlate to Nielsen Bookscan. What I've found with my own books is that Nielsen Bookscan and amazon sales rank don't really correspond at all. And neither bears much relation to the sales figures reported on the royalty statements.
Now I also saw a media report that in the week after its real author was revealed, Cuckoo's Calling sold 17,000 copies.
Not much when you think about it. I bet it doesn't compare well to the first week's ticket sales for a blockbuster movie.
If Ms. Rowling got the deal a debut author with an agent would generally get, then that means (I'm going to use US figures and customs because I don't know enough about British publishing)
17,000 x $26 = $442,000 theoretically (actually, many retailers discount the cover price)
$442,00 x 10% royalty = $44,200 (royalties are calculated from the cover price regardless of retailer discounts)
$44,200 x 85% = $37,570 (most agents take a commission of 15% for domestic sales and 20% for overseas sales; however, for overseas sales to an English-speaking country some charge 15%)
So, $37,570 in a few days' time... again, nice work if you can get it. But hardly a startling figure when compared to the kind of money the rest of the entertainment industry rakes in.
And probably not replicable. These are sales figures for a rock star writer, and there are maybe a dozen or so rock star writers in the English-speaking world. (Nearly all of them male.) I often wonder to what degree rock star writers sell to people who don't read any other books.
Anyway, if there was a point to this long ramble, it was this: Robert Galbraith was in fact doing very well on his own. It's just that “very well” in terms of bookselling doesn't involve the kinds of figures that would constitute anything more than “dismal” in other areas of the entertainment world.
Not complaining. Just making an observation. Make your financial plans accordingly.
Tonight's challenge:
In tribute to Robert Galbraith, long may he wave, write a scene that begins with the following first line.
“Mr and Mrs Dursley, of number four, Privet Drive, were proud to say that they were perfectly normal, thank you very much.”
The scene should be part of a murder mystery, and should end just before the discovery of the body. Make it ominous enough that the reader knows a body... or something... is about to be discovered.
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