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7:26 AM PT: LA-05: That was quick. Even though Rep. Rodney Alexander won't resign until next month, Gov. Bobby Jindal has already set the dates for the special election to replace him. The election will be held on Oct. 19, and if no one gets more than 50 percent, a runoff will take place on Nov. 16. Candidates must file by Aug. 21. Also, clearing up any confusion about his party affiliation, Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy confirmed that he's considering the race, and added that "in some ways I believe the district favors a centrist conservative Democrat like myself."

7:28 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Believe it or not, Gov. Chris Christie's 58-30 lead over Democrat Barbara Buono in Quinnipiac's new poll is the closest the school has ever found the race, post-Hurricane Sandy.

8:00 AM PT: SC-Sen-A: From the "Not Ready for Prime Time" Dept.: Sen. Lindsey Graham's newest primary challenger, Nancy Mace, re-tweeted a tweet in which a supporter referred to Graham as a "nancy boy"—then swiftly deleted it. (The Sunlight Foundation's Politwoops site recovered it.) Mace blamed the incident on a staffer, but amusingly, she refused to say how many people are working for her campaign; given that she just launched, that number could conceivably be zero, if all she has so far is a general consultant. But while Mace receives noogies from the media, I'm sure that insinuations about Graham's sexuality play just fine in a GOP primary.

9:04 AM PT: IA-01: After weighing the race since at least May, state House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has ultimately decided not seek the House seat left open due to Rep. Bruce Braley's bid for Senate. Paulsen would likely have been the GOP's best bet, but he would have faced a tough race in this blue-leaning seat. Two other Republicans are running, though: businessmen Steve Rathje and Rod Blum.

9:12 AM PT: CO-Sen: Here we go: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, who somehow managed to screw up a Senate race in 2010 that any halfway-decent Republican ought to have won, is going to try again. Only this time, instead of running against an appointed incumbent during a monster GOP wave, he'll be looking to take on freshman Sen. Mark Udall, who has established himself well after scoring a strong initial victory five years ago. In addition to much longer odds, the tea partying Buck also faces a contested Republican primary, since state Sens. Randy Baumgardner and Owen Hill are already running. Buck has to imagine he'll do better this time, but the facts on the ground augur otherwise.

10:57 AM PT: Georgia: There's not too much to talk about in PPP's batch of Georgia miscellany. The state remains broadly hostile to same-sex marriage, but at least the trends are in the expected direction: The electorate stands at 32 percent in favor and 60 opposed now, compared to 27-65 last year.

11:22 AM PT: HI-Sen: Christopher Raymond, the congressional aide who sent that notorious email trying to facilitate coordination between the drug industry lobbying group PhRMA and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's Senate campaign on a supposedly "independent" expenditure, has now quit. Raymond's departure follows the filing of an FEC complaint over the matter by a local attorney, but regardless of whether any kind of sanction is ever issued, PhRMA will now have to tread very cautiously in this race.

1:40 PM PT: Democrats already have one candidate, though, in state Rep. Marcus Hunter, who just joined the race. (Another Dem, state Rep. Katrina Jackson, has declined.) Meanwhile, Republican state Sen. Neil Riser continues to quickly consolidate establishment support. Rep. Charles Boustany has now endorsed him, in addition to Rep. John Fleming, who did so a day earlier.

1:53 PM PT: HI-01: Two more Democrats are jumping into the primary for Hawaii's open 1st District: state Rep. Mark Takai and Honolulu Council Member Ikaika Anderson. They join state Sen. Will Espero and Honolulu Council Member Stanley Chang, who are already in the race.

2:24 PM PT (David Jarman): Campaign finance: You may remember when we flagged a mammoth new database full of campaign finance information assembled by poli sci professor Adam Bonica several weeks ago, and wondered what you could do with it. Well, here's one good way of putting it to use: it's a chart that tries to pin down the donor habits of some of the biggest-name, wealthiest donors, describing their ideological position by relation to the ideology of the politicians they contribute to. As a comparison point, it also compares top 0.01% donors versus small donors, who tend to give less to establishment figures and more to more polarized names.

Donors sort out mostly where you'd expect them to: George Soros and Warren Buffett left of center (though not as much as Google's Larry Page and Sergey Brin), Koches and Waltons on the right. Tech figures tend to wind up in the middle, especially Jeff Bezos (who, with his recent Washington Post purchase, is the main reason this chart is getting talked about) ... though "middle" might not be an accurate descriptor for the more libertarian-minded Bezos, as seen by his giving for Washington ballot initiatives (very much in favor of same-sex marriage, very much against income taxation).

2:43 PM PT: KY-Sen: It's not a good day to be Jesse Benton. When you're already accused of selling out the tea party to take a job managing Sen. Mitch McConnell's re-election campaign, you probably really don't want to get caught on tape saying this:

I'm sorta holdin' my nose for two years. What we're doing here is going to be a big benefit to Rand in '16.
Benton's true feelings came to light because former Ron Paul aide Dennis Fusaro has gone public with accusations that Paul's presidential campaign paid off Iowa state Sen. Kent Sorenson to switch his allegiance from Michele Bachmann to Paul just before last year's Iowa caucuses. Fusaro has released a whole bunch of emails and recorded phone calls to make his case, and rather notably, Benton—who serves as Paul's campaign chair—appears on a number of communications involving Sorenson. (Sorenson is already under investigation by the Iowa state Senate over allegations he accepted improper payments from Bachmann.)

For now, McConnell is reportedly standing behind Benton, but I have to wonder: Did Benton learn all these slick moves at Republican Campaign Manager School?

2:53 PM PT: NYC Mayor: Public Advocate Bill de Blasio is now the second Democrat to go up on the air (following City Council Speaker Christine Quinn), with a spot featuring his awesomely-coifed 15-year-old son Dante:

The younger de Blasio says his father is "only Democrat with the guts to really break from the Bloomberg years" and then goes on to tout his dad's progressive aims, saying he'll "raise taxes on the rich" to fund education and "will end a stop-and-frisk era that unfairly targets people of color." That last line packs an unusual punch: Bill de Blasio is white, and his wife is African-American, so stop-and-frisk undoubtedly means something personally to a kid who looks like Dante. De Blasio is reportedly spending a sizable $800,000 to air the ad over the next two weeks.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (10+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:00:12 AM PDT

  •  thanks for describing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, atdnext

    the actual result of what the Japan Meteorological Agency said was going to be a powerful earthquake.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:13:13 AM PDT

  •  Is this a list of... (10+ / 0-)

    the number of favors Brian Schweitzer has done the Democratic Party this year?

    23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

    by liberal intellectual on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:25:08 AM PDT

  •  Hey, check it out (14+ / 0-)

    A bunch of new changes were just deployed to Daily Kos, including the end of the waiting period for new users to post comments and diaries. That means we can do a delurker thread, like we did a couple of years ago at SSP.

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:48:55 AM PDT

  •  This is a list of moments (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, sacman701

    I could stop while reading Battle Cry of Freedom, an overview of the Civil War.

  •  Ken Buck returns (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    So after getting stuck with Tancredo and Buck in 2010 and losing both races, in 2014 the Colorado Republican party may end up with... Tancredo and Buck.

  •  VA Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian
    But Cuccinelli has one thing McAuliffe hasn’t: a cadre of loyal supporters. The more Cuccinelli is trashed by the opposition, the more determined his people are to vote for him.

    It’s the other way around for McAuliffe. His embarrassments discourage Democrats and election-deciding independents; confirm their wariness of him and give them an excuse to stay home, which guarantees a Cuccinelli win. They want to view him as a level-headed, practical, non-threatening alternative to Cuccinelli. Instead, they see him as a tall George Costanza with hair: bumbling, deceptive, loud.

    http://www.timesdispatch.com/...

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:05:35 AM PDT

  •  Somewhat interesting profile of Bill DeBlasio (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, DCal, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

    in the NYTimes. Of course it focuses on his mix raced family and how they're active participants in his campaign, but also a little bit on his policy initiatives, such as ending stop and frisk.

    Most interesting fact I didn't already know, he managed Hillary Clinton's 2000 senate campaign.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    I think he's got a really good shot at winning one of the runoff spots and I'd be really interested to see what might happen if it's DeBlasio vs. Thompson, the two candidates out of the four who actually seem to be likable if runoff polling is any indicator.

  •  I really hope LA-05 goes to a runoff (7+ / 0-)

    so I get an election on my birthday!

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:16:13 AM PDT

  •  Does it disturb anyone else (0+ / 0-)

    how some politicians go from the state legislature or statewide office (or worse, Congress) to mayor? The job of a state legislator is to represent their district and do what's best for the state. However, what's best for the city and best for the state are sometimes different, and to me, going from the state legislature to mayor shows that the person cares more about their city than about their state. And if someone cares more about their city than about their state, then they should not be in the state legislature (or Congress, for that matter).

    The list of people who have done this (or at least tried) is substantial. Anthony Weiner, Bob Brady and Chaka Fattah, Rahm Emanuel, Toni Harp (in New Haven), etc. And now Ed Murray in Seattle. This trend has always confused me, since besides the problem I mentioned earlier, going from a state position (like state legislature) to a city position seems like a step down. If someone wants to be mayor, they should go from the city council to mayor. That way it's clear that the city is their first priority, not the state.

    That being said, I think it's fine for people to move from mayor to state legislator (or statewide official, or congressperson, etc.), since that is a step up. Also, it disallows the possibility of a conflict of interest, since a state legislator who wants to be mayor will simply promote their city while neglecting the rest of the state, while a mayor who's moving up (like Cory Booker, for example) is not going to neglect the rest of their state.

    All this is a very long way of saying two things. One, that legislators (whether municipal, state, or national) should care about their whole city, state, or country rather than just their district. And two, that I therefore support Mike McGinn in Seattle.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:17:38 AM PDT

    •  going from mayor or even city councilor (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KyleinWA, jncca, MichaelNY, skibum59

      to state legislator might mean getting paid well to then working a shitty part-time job, and going from a big constituency to a much smaller one, if its a decent sized city. A step down.

      And its the job of state legislators to represent a district in our system. They're supposed to make law for the whole state, but its their job to see that their district gets its share of the budget.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:22:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmmm (0+ / 0-)

        As you say,

        They're supposed to make law for the whole state,
        This means they need to do what's best for the state as a whole, regardless of whether it's also best for their district. (This is true for all state legislators, not just ones representing urban districts.)

        Also, maybe I'm thinking about it simplistically, but it seems to me that any movement from a city government to the state government would be a step up.

        Finally, why on earth are city councillors paid more that state legislators?!? No wonder so many cities are going bankrupt.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:48:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  because its a bigger job. (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, KyleinWA, betelgeux, jncca, MichaelNY

          In Portland city commissioners are elected city-wide and actually run city departments. Our state legislators are part time and earn less than $30k a year for being a legislator. They each represent under 70k people. The city has almost 600k.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:56:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Portland has at-large city commissioners? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            I would have thought that such a liberal city would realize that electing city commissioners at-large would deprive minority groups of representation. Electing legislators with single-member districts is always better than electing them at-large, since using single-member districts would allow a greater diversity of people to serve on the city council.

            Also, I'm confused about something you said. If I interpreted your comment correctly, then it seems like there's no separation between the executive and legislative branches of the Portland city government, if elected legislators run city departments. Is this the case, or am I confusing things?

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:43:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  that's the case. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ProudNewEnglander

              and yes, while the county commissioners here (I've finally moved into Portland this summer) are elected by district, we elect at large for the city council. No wonder the county commission has elected far more women and people from minority groups than the city council has in recent years.

              The city commissioners run departments assigned to them by the mayor, who gets his pick of the departments for himself.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:48:03 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, skibum59

            I find it hard to think, for example Murray, as moving down when he will probably be going from a part time gig in the minority to leader of the largest city in the state.

            This means they need to do what's best for the state as a whole, regardless of whether it's also best for their district.
            I'm not sure a lot of state legislators would agree with that. They are elected to represent their district, they do not hold a statewide office. If a bill were to harm my district, I wouldn't vote for it.

            Age 25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married in September:)

            by KyleinWA on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:39:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  You are very idealistic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      which is not a bad thing, of course, but, you have to learn to put yourself into the mindset of the average politician if you want to understand them.  For most of them, they just want the power, prestige, and notoriety.  Yes, many want to be of service, but, the average politician just wants to be a politician and really don't care if it is on the local, state or national level.  They just want to be in the game.  

      As far as it being a step up or down to move from one office to the other, a more purist type would probably argue that public service is public service, on any level.

      •  That's the first time (0+ / 0-)

        that anyone has ever called me idealistic, and if you knew my positions on several other issues, you probably wouldn't call me idealistic either.

        That being said, your point about politicians is correct. However, that doesn't mean that I (or anyone else) has to approve of it.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:38:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Happens a lot in California (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      Because we used to have very short term limits (six years in the state assembly, eight in the state senate), there was no shortage of state legislators, especially those in Los Angeles, who run for the city council after (or even during) their state-level stint. The salary is higher and term limits are longer.

      Mayoral runs are also popular. None other than Jerry Brown made that "step down" to the local level, and his experience as mayor of Oakland helps explain some of the differences between his two stints as governor. Willie Brown and Antonio Villaraigosa were former Assembly speakers who also became mayors. Nathan Fletcher tried doing that in San Diego.

      But I heavily dispute the notion that going to the local level is a "step down." In California, local control is important and cities are quite powerful. The legislative chambers' powers are concentrated in leadership, who control everything from political donations and committee assignments to parking spaces and office desks. An average state legislator, hamstrung by strong leadership, ballot initiatives, and special interests and far away from the state's two major population centers, doesn't have that much influence unless they are speaker or president pro tem. The short term limits, which were repealed just last year, had effectively eviscerated the power held by state legislators. By contrast, a city councilmember or mayor had direct control over the lives of the inhabitants, and the influence is far more intimate and in touch with constituents. Rather than just sitting around doing constituent casework and changing laws on the margins, municipal lawmakers can...actually do things.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:56:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-GOV: John Walsh suggests Patrick for President (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian
    Here is the bible, according to Democratic state party chairman John Walsh:

    Democrats should run as Democrats, and embrace higher taxes as the price of delivering better government services to taxpayers.

    Deval Patrick should run for president, but so far says he won’t.

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/...
  •  GA 2016 PPP (17+ / 0-)
    PPP's newest Georgia poll finds that Hillary Clinton would have a decent shot at winning the state if there was an election today. She leads Rand Paul, who's led our most recent national GOP polling, 48/43. She also has a 47/44 advantage on Paul Ryan, a 47/43 one on Newt Gingrich, and a 51/38 one over Sarah Palin. She ties Jeb Bush at 45, and the only Republican with an advantage over her is Chris Christie at 44/42. She could make Georgia a swing state in 2016.
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:38:43 AM PDT

    •  A good place to start (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY, skibum59

      But I question the expedience of Georgia's shift
       The shift is very real, but I am not sure if it will be fast enough for 2016. Georgia will be the next state we see a shift in elections due to Demographic changes, not Texas.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:52:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I feel like I am alone (4+ / 0-)

        in thinking that it's fertile territory, but that it being fertile territory means we need to work to win the state. As was the case with a lot of states, but specifically Virginia, in 2008, a lot of it requires time and money to register and/or mobilize voters in the state. There's really no other way around it, other than 2016 becoming so bad because the Cruz/E.W. Jackson ticket causes the bottom to fall out for the Republicans that they are losing states like Ohio by 15-20 points. That's okay, because that's the way it always goes, but again, the question is, will HRC as our nominee work to win the state? Will she work to win Arizona or Texas or wherever else she might want to compete?

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:02:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Cruz/E.W. Jackson ticket... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, wadingo, MichaelNY

          ...spit-take.

          My dream ticket for 2012 was Bachmann-West, though, so I guess that's the next logical step in the evolution of the TeaOP.

          Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where ladyparts medicine is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

          by JBraden on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:27:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  not alone (7+ / 0-)

          we started in 2008, we need to go back and work if we're going to flip it. It may not happen in 2016, but if we keep making gains, flipping it in 2020 or 2024 would guarantee our victory.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:42:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It will flip by 2024, and... (9+ / 0-)

            ...if we have a Democratic incumbent with national job approval at 50 or higher, it will flip to us in 2020.

            I'm actually confident of that.

            And the GOP will completely shit bricks at that point.  Completely.  They'll feel worse than Democrats did after Dukakis lost, because it's part of a national trend that has no apparent hope of reversal.

            I don't know why so many people talk about Texas when Georgia is the next obvious state to flip.

            Here's another prediction:  Georgia eventually will actually surpass NC as a Democratic state.  The demographics are just moving faster in Georgia, to where we don't need to improve with white voters at all.  In NC, Obama had to, and did, outperform Clinton/Gore/Kerry with whites to make it a tossup.  But Obama got 45%/46% in Georgia without even really doing that.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:35:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Georgia was solidly Democratic state (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson

              not that long ago. My disagreements with your take is that, I believe it should flip or at least become a battle ground state in 2016. If not then by 2020.

              That's why I believe that nat'l Dems need to do to all they can to make sure Nunn wins next year, having a statewide elected official, esp. in the Senate will help accelerate the movement in GA.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:45:30 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Georgia hasn't been solidly Democratic (8+ / 0-)

                for President for over 50 years.  The only Dem they've given a majority to in a national election since 1960 was Jimmy Carter, who was a home-state special case.

                The only other one to win it for President was Clinton in 1992 (not 1996), and only barely; Perot may well have made the difference there.

                At the state level it took longer to flip to the GOP, but we haven't won a gubernatorial or senatorial election there since 2000, and for years before then it was competitive at best, not solid Dem.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:52:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  "Not that long ago" was a house of cards (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

                Georgia's Democratic voting "not that long ago" was on the backs of conservative whites who are a bad fit in the modern Democratic Party, and they eventually grew to accept it.

                Those voters aren't coming back to us.

                I just think it's going to be tough to get turnout up where it needs to be as soon as 2016, especially since black turnout is certain to drop slightly.  It will almost certainly drop in raw numbers, and by a measurable margin in percentage, even though likely not down to pre-Obama levels.  Demographic shift will make up some of it, but not all of it, and in any case we need absolute nonwhite vote share growth which is unlikely in the state in 2016.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:56:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Clinton would be the only candidate who (7+ / 0-)

                  could conceivably win it in 2016. Increasing the white percentage and keeping the Minority vote share up. Besides the fact that I don't see the African American vote going down that much. Once you vote several elections in a row, you don't generally stop.

                  •  "Several" is two (5+ / 0-)

                    There is going to be some dropoff.  As I said, not all the way down to pre-Obama levels, but there is some non-trivial fraction of black voters for Obama who will fall off, because they showed up just for him.  Now, increasing black voter registration share could make up some of that, so that helps, but that's part of the same demographic shift helping increase other minorities.

                    The assumption that Hillary will do better with whites is the real folly.  All our nominees before Obama were white, and since Carter none of them did much if any better with white Georgians than Obama.  That includes Hillary's husband, who may or may not have done a little better, but not much, and in any case southern whites have gotten that much further away from our party.

                    A lot of Democrats really struggle with the fact that white conservatives don't like Democrats for President, period.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:11:41 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Bill Clinton won Georgia when it was Whiter (3+ / 0-)

                      He definitely did better than Obama, although I agree that:
                      a) Bill Clinton is a better fit for Southern Whites than the not-at-all-Southern Hillary and
                      b) Southern Whites are more Republican now.

                      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                      by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:41:27 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Fair point (0+ / 0-)

                        but Bill Clinton was a Southerner, and if you look at the states he won, I think that counted for a lot.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:57:54 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Clinton's win doesn't count the same (3+ / 0-)

                        He won 43%.  He lost the state the next time when he got 46%, but a lot of the state's '92 Perot voters returned home to the GOP.  Clinton was competitive only because of Perot.

                        Obama got 47% and then 45%, better on average than Clinton.

                        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 05:53:00 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Has this been established? (0+ / 0-)
                          Clinton was competitive only because of Perot.
                          Nationwide, this doesn't seem to have been the case, but was it clearly true in Georgia?

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:11:37 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Perot's effect varied (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen, MichaelNY

                            There were states where Perot clearly hurt Clinton more, and states where Perot clearly hurt Bush more, and states where it was hard to tell and might've been pretty even.

                            Georgia is a no-brainer, Clinton won because of Perot.  That he lost 4 years later, despite doing a couple points better overall, when Perot did much worse, proves the point.  Note that Clinton was a reasonably popular incumbent in 1996, certainly in better shape than Obama in 2012, and still Georgia flipped against him.

                            Here are Clinton's job approvals for polling the final month before the 1996 election (approve/disapprove/undecided/sample size):

                            11/2-3/96 NBC/WSJ                 53 40 7    1020  
                            10/30-11/2/96 CBS/NYT           56 34 10  1919  
                            10/27-29/96 CBS/NYT              54 36 10  1077  
                            10/26-29/96 Gallup/CNN/USA   54 36 10  1229  
                            10/23-27/96 CBS/NYT              58 32 10  1528  
                            10/21-24/96 Gallup/CNN/USA   58 35   7  1003  
                            10/19-22/96 NBC/WSJ             56 37   7 1008  
                            10/10-13/96 CBS/NYT              58 32 10  1438  
                            10/10-11/96 Yank/TIME/CNN    58 33   9  2007  
                            10/7-8/96 CBS/NYT                  61 29 10 1294  
                            10/7-8/96 ABC/WP                   59 37   4 1325  
                            10/2-3/96 Gallup/CNN/USA       57 36   7 1324  
                            10/1-2/96 Gallup/CNN/USA       58 34   8 1374

                            That was insanely good.

                            And he got just a pathetic 49% of the popular vote.

                            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:28:34 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  Why do you think so? (0+ / 0-)
                    Clinton would be the only candidate who could conceivably win it in 2016.
                    Is it impossible for another candidate to catch fire?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:15:06 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Well, it seems unlikely anyone but Hillary (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      skibum59, MichaelNY, James Allen

                      can get over 54% of the vote, which is what's required in Georgia (which should be between R+4 and R+6).

                      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                      by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:42:25 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  If we start winning TX, then they're fucked (0+ / 0-)

              in ways they can't begin to process. I think it's safe to say that if we are winning TX, we're winning in VA, NC, and GA. If you combine those 4 states, plus CA, NY, PA, FL, and IL, you're at 235, based on 2012 EC vote counts. Add in just MI, OR, and WA but not (yet) NJ, MD, or any other reliably blue states, and you're at 270.

              We're also probably doing better at the state and local level, giving us a bunch more congressional seats, a senate seat or two, and a much better bench. That's a big fucking deal.

              As far as white voters, I suspect we'll always need to hold our own to make it safer for us. Up to a point, anyway. The thing is, I suspect we could that now, if wanted to do so.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:02:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Winning Texas is so far off that it really isn't (0+ / 0-)

                worth talking about.  I think we'll have lost Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin long before we win Texas.

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:38:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Are you saying that will happen? (0+ / 0-)
                  •  I'm saying if we win Texas (0+ / 0-)

                    Our coalition will have shifted in a way that makes us lose the heavily White Upper Midwest.  With that said, I don't believe we will win Texas until at least 2028, and that's so far out it's not worth predicting.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                    by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:00:10 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't think that shift is natural (6+ / 0-)

                      Wisconsin in particular has solidified for us over the last couple of decades. Obama taking Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire showed us that there are some areas where Democrats losing favor with white voters isn't going to be a fatal problem for us.

                      I could easily envision the party 10 years from now being more competitive in Georgia, Arizona, and Texas without sacrificing our strength in the Midwest, especially if the GOP is still refusing to moderate.

                    •  our coalition doesn't have to shift to pick up TX (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tommypaine, MichaelNY, skibum59, DCCyclone

                      and keep MN, Texas just needs to have higher Hispanic turnout and we need to do a bit better among Hispanic voters there, and we need some of the kids to become adults and older whites to die off.  At the same time, MN is becoming more urban and so our losses in rural areas will be balanced out.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:39:59 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The easiest way for Republicans to shift is to (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, skibum59, ChadmanFL, nimh

                        switch back to George W. Bush 2000-era compassionate conservatism.  It doesn't require alienating their Christian Right base, and it doesn't require a full-scale appeal to minorities.  The best targets in that situation are heavily White, middle-income states.  That means IA/WI/MN.

                        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                        by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:43:12 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Fool me once (long pause)... (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          James Allen, redrelic17, bjssp

                          It would be easier to turn the Titanic on a dime than make this switch.

                          Making TX competitive does nothing to impact the upper Midwest as the key to making TX competitive is registration and turnout of existing constituencies.

                          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                          by tommypaine on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:03:23 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  This is a debate (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, nimh

                            between whether we think Democrats can establish a more or less permanent advantage in presidential years, or whether the parties (and state voting patterns) will adjust to ensure a closer to 50-50 chance.  jncca has argued before for the latter position, while I think you and others are arguing the former.

                            All this talk about Texas and Georgia turning blue is inherently about that debate.  Either Republicans will simply start losing almost all presidential elections absent Dem scandal or unpopularity, or they will figure out a way to be competitive again in other states.  Or, perhaps Texas and Georgia will in fact remain much more Republican than the rest of the country, and white voters in those states will get more GOP-leaning to balance out minority growth for the future.  This is what I tend to think.

                          •  my past position remains the same: (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone, NMLib, bjssp

                            equilibrium does not happen instantly.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:03:12 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  White voters in Georgia and Texas don't have much (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, wwmiv

                            more room to drop, unless you expect urban Whites to start voting like rural ones, which I think is unlikely.

                            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                            by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:44:09 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Exactly. I just don't see why you expect (0+ / 0-)

                            there to be a trend towards Republicans with white voters in other states.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:17:09 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Equilibrium, which I know (0+ / 0-)

                            not everyone believes in.

                            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                            by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:20:06 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't think they can get much more... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, wwmiv

                            Republican-leaning. But I do think the GOP, or a successor party on the right side of the political spectrum, will find a way to "stay in the game" over the medium to long term.

                          •  It's not that they can never win the South again. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            It's that we have more of a chance to win it. If we are not favored, we'd have no worse than, say, a 40 percent shot. That's just a massive improvement from where we are now.

                            I guess you could say that it's not so much the guaranteed emerging Democratic majority so much as it is the potentially  solid emerging Democratic majority.

                            Something else to consider is that in order to win, the party becomes more like Nixon in 1972 and less like Reagan in 1980. Such moderation would be a big, big change.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:19:35 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I think they've succeeded... (3+ / 0-)

                            In moving the Overton window somewhat. Now they'll get plaudits and fawning media attention for being courageous "moderates" if they're slightly less frothily anti-Obama than the Tea Party. Mark Hatfield, Gov. Christie and Sen. Rubio ain't. So I don't know if they actually have to moderate that much -- just back off the rabid ideological purity, relentless obstructionism, and fanatical hatred of immigrants, gays, and President Obama a little bit from the insane extremes to which the party has presently descended.

                          •  You have to have an argument rooted in reality (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            jncca isn't making any argument to support his thesis.  That's the problem.  Saying that the upper Midwest will reflexively flip away if Texas flips for us isn't defensible without arguing why.  Undermining his argument is both that he offers no supporting evidence, and that no one else in politics is predicting, or even speculating, the upper Midwest flips away.

                            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:13:04 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  It's kind of hard for white voters to become (0+ / 0-)

                            more Republican in these states. It's possible, sure, although you'd have to have an unusual trend within urban areas to Republicans, something that hasn't really happened anywhere else in the country. But even if Republicans were to win 100 percent of the white vote, Democrats will get closer and closer as the states become less and less white. They could easily win more nonwhites themselves, but that's easier said than done.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:16:17 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  We won't get fooled again. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tommypaine

                            The Rolling Stones at your service: http://www.youtube.com/...

                            http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

                            by redrelic17 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:41:54 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The Who, you mean? (eom) (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            redrelic17

                            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                            by Mike in MD on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:09:44 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Except that all three of those states (0+ / 0-)

                          went Democratic in 2000.

                          •  Yes, but George W. Bush was a (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, skibum59

                            southern evangelical.  Pick a northerner who talks about faith less and I think you can win all three.

                            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                            by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 04:29:56 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  No, jncca, that can't work (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Stephen Wolf, sacman701

                          That can't work because demographic shift makes it impossible to get the margins they need from doing that.

                          Dubya lost the national popular vote, shouldn't have been awarded Florida, and then 4 years later barely won 51-48 nationally and 51-49 in Ohio which was the electoral college difference.  All this was with much more favorable demographics.

                          Your notion about losing the upper Midwest is bizarre and not rooted in anything supported by any evidence, and it's not predicted by anyone.

                          The GOP really has to move left on some things in absolute terms to compete in the future.

                          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:10:40 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  But why would it work better now in IA/WI/MN? (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          James Allen

                          It's not that I think it's impossible for them to, to be clear, only that I don't think there's really any trend away from us with whites.

                          Plus, these states, slowly but surely, are becoming less and less white.

                          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                          by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:13:48 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  On a state level (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            skibum59

                            all three states have been very recently susceptible to Republican candidates, and the margin of victory in Presidential elections is not tremendous. I don't predict that they will become more Republican, but for me to say that's possible, I don't think I need to prove that it's actually happening. The future always contains an element of uncertainty.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:32:12 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  The thing that people are missing in regards to TX (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        is that we aren't competing there now. It might take more time and/or more effort to win the right percentage of white voters and have the electorate itself become less white, but merely showing up there, which we aren't doing now, will help us. That doesn't mean we need to lose anything in MN or WI to win. We don't need to win white voters outright in the state in order to win. We merely need to get around 45 percent. Anything above that just pads our margins.

                        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                        by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:12:22 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  The major thing that people don't understand about (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          James Allen, MichaelNY, bjssp

                          Texas is that the only reason that Republicans win the state is because Anglo evangelicals are half of white voters (where we get 10-15% of the vote).

                          Democrats actually do very well with the other half of white voters, those who are not evangelical. Bill White, for instance, got 44% of these voters in 2010 of all years.

                          And here's the key: the Anglo evangelical population in Texas is shrinking, whereas the non-evangelical Anglo population is growing. We have nowhere to go but up with Anglos in Texas as was pointed out by jncca above.

                          And this is all the case in the context of not competing in Texas at all. If we starting investing, I would not be surprised to see us do better among non-evangelical whites and to see their turnout increase relative to the evangelical half. That combined with slightly better turnout among Hispanics and with better performance among African Americans (especially men, though this is a large problem with Hispanics w/r/t to the gender gap as well) is the key to us winning Texas.

                          And with Hillary it is entirely possible. Remember how Bill Clinton was the first black president? HRC has some very powerful resonance with the Texas Hispanic community because of her activist history in the state helping to register and turn out Hispanics for McGovern. Hispanics loved the Clintons, and they did so more than they ever have loved Obama. If we talk about Wendy Davis as being a statewide possibility, Hillary Clinton is at least a thousand times better a statewide option for Texas.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:40:11 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Thanks for your specific remarks (0+ / 0-)

                            as usual. But how do you measure the degree of love Hispanics felt for the Clintons vs. Obama?

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:18:36 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  electoral returns (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Clinton did better than Obama among Hispanics while doing worse nationwide in the context of a Democratic party that was cratering downballot.

                            Hillary completely destroyed Obama in Hispanic areas of the country, but the degree to which she destroyed him was substantially larger in Texas.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:44:15 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Bill Clinton did better amongst Hispanics (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            nationwide than Obama?

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:23:59 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Exit polling had him in the 80s both cycles, iirc.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:07:21 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  You could also make an appeal to evangelicals (0+ / 0-)

                            that would probably help somewhat, although that's definitely along the lines of limiting the losses rather than trying to score wins. But if every vote counts...

                            It'd also say that Texas is unique in that its voter turnout is so low. There's just a ton of people that don't vote, and I suspect it's not entirely clear which way these people lean.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:22:18 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  Why do you think we'd lose the Upper Midwest? (0+ / 0-)

                      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                      by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:08:49 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  I completely disagree. (0+ / 0-)

                  There's really only one place to go but up in Texas with white voters. Meanwhile, I don't think there's really any trend away from us in the other states.

                  "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                  by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:08:25 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  ? (0+ / 0-)
                As far as white voters, I suspect we'll always need to hold our own to make it safer for us. Up to a point, anyway. The thing is, I suspect we could that now, if wanted to do so.
                You aren't saying Democrats are not currently trying for white votes, are you? Please clarify what you mean.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:16:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  But that's just it: lots of people (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, BoswellSupporter

            seem to assume it's going to happen on its own or that there's no reason or even no way we could actively compete there. On the former, it's a ways off, if it ever comes to that. On the latter, we could probably do so, if wanted to. We might have better opportunities somewhere else, like AZ, but assuming 2016 isn't like 2010, I think we could flip GA even without HRC. I suspect Warner might play well there, for instance.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:04:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, but Warner (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              is not likely to run for President in 2016 and is not liberal enough to win the primaries, don't you think?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:17:19 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Warner (3+ / 0-)

                I agree with Michael.  I love Mark Warner, but I don't think he could get through a primary.  I've always been amazed how Warner is able to appeal to certain voters in Virgina.  He sounds like a wealthy guy from CT and yet if you follow the Mudcat Sanders strategy my impression is that Creigh Deeds would fit the Sanders strategy much better than Warner.  Deeds lost by a considerable margin though while Warner has most Virginia Republicans shaking in their boots.  

                I'd love to see Warner run, but I think his strength is explaining policy in a detailed fashion and that doesn't lend itself well to a Presidential campaign or being President in 2013 or 2017.  

                IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                by BoswellSupporter on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 04:10:43 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I suspect Mark Warner kind of got lucky. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BoswellSupporter, skibum59

                  If I recall correctly, he got Republicans to go along with a tax increase as a way to close the budget, for instance. Could he do the same now? I don't think anyone could do that with today's Republicans, especially some at the state level. He's competent and capable, no doubt, but the relative moderation of Republicans back then made his job a lot easier. And running in 2008 didn't hurt his chances.

                  "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                  by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:29:50 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  that patrician veneer (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, BoswellSupporter

                  Doesn't sell in every state. But there is a segment among Virginia voters who appreciate that, I believe. I'll gladly defer to in-state observers if need be.

                  A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

                  by Christopher Walker on Fri Aug 09, 2013 at 08:08:35 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Who knows? He's not Zell Miller. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Christopher Walker

                He's much more of a technocratic, managerial type, but then so isn't Obama? So isn't Clinton?

                For all the talk of what a wishy washy type that Warner supposedly is, he voted for pretty much everything, and everything big, in the last few years. He's tried to get us to some sort of grand bargain, but there's no indication he was leading the charge for something truly outrageous.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:26:30 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  It would guarantee victory (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            nimh

            if Democrats don't start losing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, etc. Erosion in those states is possible.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:13:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's possible, (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen, bjssp

              but PA, WI, and MI are also three states that keep getting brought up as "swing" states when all of them have voted Democratic in presidential elections for at least the last 20 years.

              •  PA is close, though (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                nimh, SaoMagnifico, skibum59

                Not that much would have to happen for Republicans to win PA, WI, even MN.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 04:00:29 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think that speculation demands a rationale (0+ / 0-)

                  Empty speculation isn't really an argument.  Why would our winning some states like Texas and Georgia cause us to do worse in the Rust Belt?  There's really nothing anyone has identified, except the further naked and already disproven speculation that somehow more nonwhites in the electorate causes us to do worse with whites.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:25:30 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  This: (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, jncca, skibum59
                    more nonwhites in the electorate causes us to do worse with whites.
                    Is actually true, at least at the local level. Democrats had in places with larger black populations tend to do substantially worse than places with lower black populations.

                    There's a reason that the areas where Democrats stood the test of time a hell of a lot better had smaller black populations (white areas of Arkansas, northern Alabama, cajun country, demosaur Tennessee, etc.) Those places did not crater until 2010. And even after that, we still do better in those areas than we do with whites in areas with very large black populations.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:58:38 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I'm not suggesting a correlation (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    skibum59

                    It's not that Pennsylvania would vote Republican because Texas votes Democratic - that's an absurd idea! The reason for the speculation is that we've seen white voters in certain areas voting heavily Republican, for example in large areas of Western Pennsylvania. I think it's possible for them to vote Republican in even larger numbers.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:02:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  But what about the rest of PA? (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen, MichaelNY, NMLib

                      Philly's growing again, and my guess is that it's not white Republicans that are fueling that growth. In general, Western PA is losing population while Eastern PA is growing.

                      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                      by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:35:33 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  here's Teixeira's take on PA's trends (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, bjssp, NMLib

                        link.

                        It would take a serious change for Republicans to have an advantage there.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:38:46 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  Every state is becoming less white. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Okay, if that's not technically true--if Wyoming, Nebraska, or some other state where nobody nonwhite lives--let's say it's true for every state that really matters in the EC. It's not necessarily happening all that fast in some states, but that can change. So any sort of potential loss in, say, Minnesota could be balanced out with growth in nonwhite voters.

                    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                    by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:32:17 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  OR (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                       photo non-whiteadultversuschildrenpopulationsbycounty_zpse5cb9e7e.png

                      (open for full chart)

                      the non-white portion of the under 18 population is often double what it is in the adult population across Oregon's counties.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:42:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Actually, I believe Nebraska (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bjssp

                      has become a lot more Hispanic because of the number of people from Latin America who've come to the state to work in meat-packing plants, etc. They may be non-citizens, but some of their children are citizens.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:20:56 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Omaha also has a decent black population. (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, bjssp

                        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                        by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:56:10 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Believe it or not, I did a seminar (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        paper on this topic in college. You're right about meat packing plants in the Midwest/Plains states.

                        I just picked Nebraska because I know it's small and mostly white, at least now, but it wouldn't surprise me if if it was changing quickly. I just looked it up, and it's more diverse than I thought. Amusingly, some of these states have so few of one type of race that it doesn't even get a number in the Census spreadsheets.

                        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                        by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:38:03 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

      •  AZ, then GA (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, MichaelNY

        I think the GOP has blown any chance to get much of the growing Hispanic vote in AZ for at least a generation, and the white vote isn't as generically red as it looked in 2012. A lot of people were angry with Obama because the administration sued the state, and I think his lack of effort there in 2008 probably carried over into 2012 a bit. The senate race there was very close even though Flake was probably the best candidate the GOP could have put up. Dems have more low-hanging fruit in AZ than they do in GA, where the Dem base is heavily black and already highly mobilized.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:28:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you're badly mistaken about Arizona (9+ / 0-)

          White Arizonans for quite a few Presidentials have voted Republican about as strongly as they do in the South.  That coupled with the fact that Hispanics aren't nearly as one-sidedly Democratic as black voters are really slows our prospects in Arizona.  The GOP "blowing" the Hispanic vote means they get stuck in the 20s.  But they get stuck around 10% with black voters and have been for a long time already.

          In the Presidential, Georgia will flip first.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:38:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  So I guess you think Obama wouldn't win AZ in (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            2008 without McCain on the ticket, then?

            I suspect that we'd have our work cut out for us increasing our totals with white voters. That being said, I think you're wrong on the math. What I mean is, we're at or near the bottom with white voters in the state. And even if Republicans, either as part of a trend or specifically in Arizona, do better with Hispanics, the fact that we get greater than 50 percent of the Hispanic vote, even at just 51 percent, means we benefit from the electorate turning less and less white. This doesn't mean we can necessarily win it, but it does mean it gets better for us.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:07:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I actually am not so sure... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, skibum59

              ...Obama would've beaten another Republican.  I grant that it would've been real close.  But it would've been like Indiana, a one-off.

              Arizona is changing, but Georgia is changing faster.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:13:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  that's not accurate (9+ / 0-)

            Kerry got 41% of the white vote in AZ in 2004, Obama 40% in 2008 despite McCain being a favorite son. Those are only a few points worse than he got nationally, and the only southern states where Dems put up numbers close to that are VA and FL which are already purple. Obama probably got about 34% of the white vote in 2012 which is more than he slipped nationally, but I think much of that was a one-off due to the feds suing the state.

            In 2004 AZ voted like a southwestern state, which it is. Kerry got 43% of the white vote in NV, 43% in NM, 42% in CO. I think the same forces that are moving those states left are still working in AZ if somewhat slower because AZ also draws in a lot of conservative retirees. They were just interrupted in 2008 and 2012. Again I think Carmona's race is a better indicator of the state's lean than Obama's is.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:45:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Big question mark (5+ / 0-)

              How much bounce back with whites will there be for the next nominee and how much retraction with minorities? This is why Hillary Clinton is potentially so strong - she can hold much of the Obama coalition and add to it with white women and some working class voters. For a long time I argued the president's race wasn't a primary cause of opposition to him but it clearly does play a part in some parts.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:01:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Did Obama in '08/'12 or Kerry in '04 compete in AZ (0+ / 0-)

              like they did in other states? I don't think they did. That by itself is a big, big factor.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:36:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Arizona is to the Democrats as Pennsylvania is to (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Republicans. Fool's gold every 4 years.

            •  Dems won AZ in 96, Reps won PA in 88 (5+ / 0-)

              In contrast Reps came within 3 points in PA in 2004.  

              They aren't comparable, and they aren't fools gold either.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:21:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  PA is fools gold, and AZ is not (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Why Republicans keep thinking they can win every four years but fall flat on their faces?

                If you ask me, their obsession goes to Reagan, when he was able to do well in the Philly burbs. PA has changed alot since, esp in SEPA. Just by #'s and demographics, I don't see Repubs winning PA anytime soon.

                I don't think Dems are going to win Arizona on the Presidential level any time soon. IMO you have a lot of racist and and hardcore xenophobes in that state that makes it hard to move. Even if the growing Hispanic population is in AZ.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:20:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  You don't see Dems talking up AZ (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Like Repubs talk up PA. Were smart enough to know we're not winning that state, and don't waste money or time there. Unlike Republicans who are dumb enough to make a late push at campaign ends.

                So calvinshobbes is wrong to say that Arizona is fools gold for Dems.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:38:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, for now (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea

              But that could change in both states.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:19:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  You're right & the problem is all nonwhite turnout (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo, MichaelNY

        By registration, whites are down in the 50s, nonwhites over 40% of the total.  And nonwhite voter registration growth isn't all Hispanics and Asians as in much of the country, in Georgia there's a substantial amount from black voters, who as 90-10 Democratic voters move the needle faster for us.

        But black turnout somewhat lags whites in Georgia, and Hispanic and Asian turnout greatly lags whites as it does in much of the country.

        So our ascendance is slowed.

        But voter registration by race has been changing so fast, it's breathtaking.  If we can get a combination of the trend continuing at the same pace plus some improvement turnout, then it can be in play sooner rather than later.  But it will take an OFA-style effort using analytics to pull it off in 2016.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:31:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've brought this up before, but it's (0+ / 0-)

          worth bringing up again: why are there so many unregistered nonwhites in some Southern states? If you look at the Census figures, there are sometimes hundreds of thousands of voters that aren't registered and thus don't turn out. In Florida, for instance, it's really bad. Perhaps it's a matter of them not being able to vote for legal reasons, like a criminal record or something, but I can't think that's even close to being the issue for most of them. And to be sure, there are lots of nonwhites registered. But if I recall correctly, there are, as a percentage of their overall population, more nonwhites than whites not registered, and in a lot of cases, specifically Florida, they are blacks. Given our dominance with them, it would make sense to focus like a laser on registering them, but that we aren't doing so makes me think there's a structural problem. It seems so damn obvious, and yet it's not being done.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:11:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why do you think there's nothing being done? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            I'm sure Obama did lots of voter registration in Florida.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:42:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, was anything done in 2004? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Perhaps it's just harder for Democrats to register some groups over others. Or perhaps there are reasons some people can't or won't be registered.

              It's just that in some states, there's such a seeming treasure trove of potential voters, specially black voters, that would be exclusively Democratic. Look it up: the numbers are eye-popping, to the point where it seems like the strategy should be to focus almost exclusively on one group.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:40:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Have you looked up incarceration rates? (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca, skibum59

                I suspect the very high rates of incarceration among non-whites, especially black men, is a major factor behind these numbers. Note that felon disenfranchisement can make it relevant to look at, not just current incarceration rates, but also the rates at which people have been incarcerated at some point in the past. (Even if the disenfranchisement is not explicitly permanent, it can discourage registration after the waiting period. Also, ex-felon minorities tend to be even lower on the socio-economic ladder than minorities in general, which is also correlated with registration rates.)

                I pledge allegiance to liberty and justice for all.

                by childers moof on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:23:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Expedience? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        Do you mean speed?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:12:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's on. (4+ / 0-)

      Georgia will no longer be safe for Republicans in the indefinite future.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:53:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's Christie's appeal? (0+ / 0-)

      I can't think of many obvious reasons why her support would drop, yet not go all the way to Christie, in the hypothetical match up between her and others. Is there really a lot of difference in the minds of voters between Ryan and Christie?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:04:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perhaps the most depressing stat in this poll (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, wadingo, MichaelNY, lordpet8, HoosierD42
      He may have ravaged the state 150 years ago but 56% of Georgians have no opinion about William Tecumseh Sherman- 16% see him favorably and 28% unfavorably.
      As a Civil War buff, I have to weep.

      Next time Virginia's up, I plan to suggest PPP ask about Robert E. Lee's favorables.  Of all the Confederates he seems to be the most respected today: it may be interesting to see if Lee gets any cross racial approval given his usually noble portrayal even among non-Southerners.

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:15:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll say this again and again... (6+ / 0-)

      ...it's a little over three years until the next presidential election. A lot could change about the political landscape in this country before then.

      I don't think that Hillary or Christie will be the presidential nominees of their respective parties, to be honest with you.

      My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:11:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    The Wisconsin GOP, with the help of me and seemingly half of the DPW, has won the narrative war against Mary Burke.

    Luckily, there's still time for Wisconsin Democrats to find another candidate to run against Walker, but State Assemblyman Brett Hulsey and State Senator Kathleen Vinehout aren't exactly ideal opponents to Walker. Hulsey is, simply put, unfit for public office, and Vinehout is somewhat conservative on social issues. Even I would endorse Burke if she runs and her only primary challenger(s) is/are Vinehout and/or Hulsey.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:47:18 AM PDT

  •  Could 2014 be 2010 in reverse? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, itskevin

    I wonder if Obamacare supporters confronting Republican Members of Congress will become commonplace over the coming months...if that's the case, Patrick McHenry is the first one to have been confronted by supporters of the President's signature legislative accomplishment.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:19:42 AM PDT

    •  Interesting. Obviously a lot depends (7+ / 0-)

      on implementation. Even if there are glitches, which are inevitable, if more uninsured are getting coverage(through Medicaid or the exchanges), I think it could be a net positive in 2014.

      In a way, GOP might have helped Dems on the PR side of this. If the sky doesnt fall, and the above scenario plays out, Obamacare might not be a big positive for the GOP.

      •  The (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, lordpet8

        problem is the GOP is going out of their way to make implementation of Obamacare a living hell in red states. For instance I read in Missouri thanks to a voter passed ballot initiative in 2012, the state government is forbidden to even acknowlege Obamacare even exists.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:54:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's unenforceable and unconstitutional. (6+ / 0-)

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:57:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  True (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          There are some exceptions. AZ, ND, AR, KY and WV have all accepted Medicaid expansion. ID has accepted a state exchange.

          But initially, ACA implementation is very much going to be a red state/blue state issue.

          There are 14 states(not including MA) that have accepted the state exchange and Medicaid expansion, and only, KY, is a conservative state.

          In terms of electoral politics, it will be interesting to watch how GOP reps in some of those states(WA, CA, NY, MN, NJ) react to implementation.

        •  Depends on messaging - people WILL fall through (7+ / 0-)

          The cracks.  I've been paying my mom's medical bills for years as she is unable to work and has no insurance due to preexisting conditions and still fighting for disability.  

          I just found out recently she will get ZERO in subsidies from Obamacare because Florida failed to expand Medicaid.  Anyone making less than around $12k in my state (and many others) will fall into a loophole of getting no subsidies for making too little.  I think since I file her as a dependent I can at least get about 30'ish% subsidy for her insurance using my income, but I'm not entirely sure.  

          A lot of people are going to fall through the cracks with Obamacare due to the states opting out of Medicaid.  They SHOULD blame and vote out their GOP state legislators in 2014, but my guess is a lot of uninformed voters will just blame Obama/Dems.

          Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

          by ChadmanFL on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:57:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sad to say, but you are right (6+ / 0-)

            This is a problem in many, many states. Medicaid would become the best option for the people who are too sick to hold a job and therefore have no income or healthcare access. By those states refusing to expand Medicaid, they slip through the largest crack in the Affordable Care Act as decided by the Supreme Court.

            I myself have fallen through that crack, being a Virginia resident who is too sick to work and having aged out of a group plan that is now stuck paying COBRA's outrageous premiums. It's not even a guarantee that Virginia would expand Medicaid even if McAuliffe wins and the Democrats hold the State Senate, because we'd still need the House of Delegates to pass it and that's unlikely.

            Our best chance is that the rollout and implementation is strong, especially in the sense that it explains in detail why some people are not getting the better access to coverage that other people are. That's the best way to make the electorate realize that Republican-controlled legislatures and Republican governors are the ones keeping them from getting healthcare or paying less for it.

            I wonder if 2014 will see a pitch by Democrats across the country to explain to the voters why this is happening, and if that pitch can be effective.

          •  I can't imagine (0+ / 0-)

            the blame for this will fall on Dems. This seems like one of those clearcut cases where the media and others will be reporting why certain people are not able to get insurance. The trail is pretty clear: Supreme Court, state legislative decisions, etc. If anything, I think this will put more pressure on Republicans to capitulate.

      •  Inverse sequestration? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:45:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  An attempt at a response (4+ / 0-)

      I always access that it is a possibility.

      The most likely scenario is a lot of hype, but nothing in the end. The Democratic districts highlight 15-20 million people getting health insurance, while the Republican districts highlight 2 cases out of 20 million that went badly. In swing districts, Republican run on "repeal and replace [with nothing" while Democrats run against medical device tax and IAPB. In all, basically a total wash.

      There is another scenario. Republicans have been very aggressive about taking any piece of information they can find and determining some way of distorting it. For example, every time a state releases their insurance marketplace rates, Republicans rush to distort the information as quickly as possible. Everyone always compares the rate increase a 21 or 26 year old healthy male that currently has insurance with a $20,000 deductible and no preexisting conditions would face. No one EVER highlights that the insurance on the marketplaces would be far superior quality, or that anyone with a preexisting condition would see rates plummet.  Therefore, there is a serious opportunity here to exceed expectations. If you are Joe Average and you have been told by the Indiana government that your insurance rates will go up 72%, and in 2014 that doesn't happen, couldn't you change your mind? If you make $40,000 with a family of 5, couldn't you change your mind when the subsides limit the cost to $135~ a month?

      What Republicans are doing in an attempt to scare everyone about the exchanges is pathetic. It irritates me to no limit, but I find it quite difficult to be optimistic. Health insurance is very difficult to understand. People don't seem to understand insurance that has a maximum annual coverage limit of $1,200 is not of the same quality with insurance with no annual or lifetime coverage limits. I really hope people will notice that health insurance rates are not spiking 72% or 142%. I really hope people with actual preexisting conditions realize that their rates will plummet .

      •  Well the shift in rating bands is a big deal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That issue alone could be a huge problem for young people, but it's a one time hit and then they'll be back to normal increases.

      •  It's now illegal to have a $1200 annual coverage (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        limit. Definitely for children, possibly for adults soon if not already. I'm speaking from personal experience as a beneficiary of that provision. I think the lowest coverage limit is now $100,000. I believe lifetime limits are also illegal now.

        18, polisci major, voting in MA-01. Democrats must stand up and become the party for all working people.

        by wmass progressive on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:06:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know (0+ / 0-)

          The health plan was a health insurance plan offered to part-time minimum wage workers for a product demonstration company. The plan had roughly a $50~ a month premiums, approximately a $1,000 annual coverage limit, and massive deductibles and co-pays. It was offered to my mother when she was considering taking the job.

          It had a one page waiver saying the plan had been waived by HHS from the ACA provisions until July 31st, 2013 due to it not meeting minimum standards.

          So did I purposefully pick an extreme example of useless insurance? Yes.

          If you want a more representative example of low-quality insurance that Republicans use for these lines, then http://www.washingtonpost.com/... is a good example. That explains how conservatives spun California's marketplace rates into "everyone will get a 146% rate hike!"

      •  I don't think Dems run against IAPB (0+ / 0-)

        I think they just ignore that.

        Medical device tax, too, is something I bet not so many run against, despite the Senate budget vote on it.  The problem is Democrats know the revenue is a must-have for the ACA, and saying you support repealing it puts your own side in a box when the GOP forces votes on it and then you don't have an answer on how to replace the revenue.

        That Senate budget vote was easier because it was non-binding, but real legislation would be a nightmare for Dems.

        I think purple-seat Dems either stay quiet on ACA or talk up the obvious plusses, or a little of both.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:38:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  My insurance premium went up by about 30 pct. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid, Christopher Walker

        The thing is, it went up from about $25 to about $31 when providers were switched a few years ago.

        See what I did there? I gave a false impression of a skyrocketing premium, when the base was small to begin with and when the increase was manageable. A lot of hype happens because people either don't understand statistics or get easily confused by scaring sounding numbers.

        I'd have to check to be really sure, but my guess is that a lot of these huge increases are going to happen to people who aren't paying a lot to begin with. They will pay more, yes, but it's not as if they will be paying thousands and thousands more. Some, possibly, but those will be a small minority of people, if there are any at all.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:57:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Roby Brock on the road with Mark Pryor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, DCCyclone
  •  LA-06: party switching state Sen running (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    A few weeks ago, freshman state Sen. Rick Ward switched from Dem to Republican.  Now he's running for Bill Cassidy's vacant and heavily GOP seat in the Baton Rouge area.  Ward unsurprisingly says his party switch is unrelated to his candidacy.  

    Paul Dietzel, who founded the local software company Anedot, is the only other GOPer running so far.  But it's a very good bet the field here will get larger.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:02:16 AM PDT

  •  KY-Sen: McConnell's campaign manager, (17+ / 0-)

    the one allegedly involved in bribery for the Ron Paul campaign, says that he's just holding his nose working for McConnell so that he can get back to working for Paul's son:
    http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/...
    Not flattering that your own campaign manager is reluctantly working for you.
    h/t Joe Sonka

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:04:33 AM PDT

    •  WOW! (0+ / 0-)

      The real race in KY-Sen may be between whether or not McConnell will lose in the Republican primary (to Matt Bevin) or in the general election (to Alison Lundergan Grimes).

      My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:20:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, because voters care so so so much (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, nimh, skibum59

        about what a campaign manager they've never heard of thinks!  Great analysis!

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:47:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Benton's probable involvement in bribery (5+ / 0-)

          probably will matter.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:17:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The other part kinda matters, too (10+ / 0-)

            Benton displays a lack of discipline, makes himself a story, and demonstrates that he really might not be up to the task of managing McConnell's campaign.

            I'm sorry, but "holding my nose" to work for someone is not something any normal campaign manager would say in a job s/he doesn't leave.  Sure they've all had some crappy jobs, but people don't stay in those jobs for 2 years at that level, managing a U.S. Senate campaign.  I see some media folk on Twitter spinning this as Benton merely being emotionally detached from McConnell, but it sounds a little worse than that to me.  You don't work for a candidate who you think actually sucks, and Benton sounds like he thinks McConnell sucks.  But, hey, whatever helps Rand, so he'll do it.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:06:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sen. McConnell is under Damocles' sword (5+ / 0-)

              If he fires Benton, he will piss off Sen. Rand Paul. If he keeps Benton, he'll look pathetic. Perhaps his best option is for Benton to resign, but then he will lose an important connection to Paul. And he needs Paul's support to weather this primary challenge from Matt Bevin.

              •  I'm not sure if Paul actually matters... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, James Allen, skibum59

                ...to Bevin's chances.

                I don't think wingnuts are personally loyal to Paul.  They largely support him in Kentucky because he's mostly on their side on the issues, but that's not the same as personal loyalty that can be transferred.

                But McConnell obviously thought Paul matters, or he wouldn't have hired Benton.  But that doesn't mean he can't or won't change his calculation on that at some point.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 05:50:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  That (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Was totally unnecessary.

          •  No (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            That was totally true.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:02:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I mean (0+ / 0-)

              Of course I'm not surprsed that you support the tone of the comment.  Both of you are kind of infamous for acting like jerks to everyone else when you disagree with them.

              •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

                Although I understand where you're coming from, isn't it the slightest bit possible that I come across as a jerk because when I decide to dig my heels in on something I usually back myself up with academic work and data that is pretty well established?  

                Yes, I know I can come across as a jerk. But I am also incredibly understanding. Most of the time, when I say something douchebaggy it is because it is incredibly deserved. In this case, because the o.p. is - to borrow your construction - infamous for acting incredibly asinine and borderline troll.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:46:18 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Fusaro, the ex-Paul aide who released this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, wadingo, itskevin

      said he did it because Benton is refusing to take responsibility for the bribery:
      http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:30:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Benton is married into the Paul family IIRC (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Married to one of Ron Paul's grand daughters.  I'm bad on what he'd be to Rand, would that mean married to a niece of Rand?

      Either way Rand is planning to run for President in 2016 and wants the support of a Senate Majority Leader - or at least not outright hostility, so Benton was hired on because he's part of McConnell's teabagger outreach to try and stave off a primary.  

      It will be VERY interesting to see what Bevin does with this news/quote.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:53:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What the heck? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

      http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

      What will he do when his involvement in bribery is proven?  I can take him having a campaign manager who views his job as just a way to get to what he actually wants to do, but if he's implicated, that's another story.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:06:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If this actually heads to court (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, itskevin

        I imagine Benton will need to at least temporarily step down both for PR reasons and to ensure that the campaign has a campaign manager who can work full time.  

        I wonder how McConnell feels about this.  Picture aside, if he's angry with Benton and it causes friction between the two, that could conceivably do a bit of damage to the campaign.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:11:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  AR Sen: One pessimistic view (0+ / 0-)
    Over the past two cycles, Arkansas averaged 14pt to the right of the country at large. That puts it on the same level as Alabama and more Republican than any other southern state, including Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.

    . . . .

    When Pryor first won his Senate seat in 2002, Arkansas was only 3pt more Republican than the nation in the nearest two presidential elections. This meant that instead of Arkansas being the most Republican southern state as it is today on the presidential level, it was the most Democratic southern state.

    . . . .

    Arkansas, as opposed to Louisiana, which has a sizable black population, is the one place where a vulnerable 2004 deep southern senator benefits zilch from the Obama coalition.

    http://www.theguardian.com/...

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:26:51 AM PDT

  •  TX Attorney General (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Recapping some of the moves in the race this week. Rep. branch got a majority of the House Republicans to endorse him and Barry Smitherman shows his junk (poll)

    http://www.burntorangereport.com/...

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 11:59:15 AM PDT

  •  WATN: Bev Perdue spends remaining campaign funds (11+ / 0-)

    on herself.  She had $1.2 million left over and $1 million was spent on repaying personal loans and paying writers for her autobiography.  These are the kind of stories that got NC Democrats in trouble, I wish they would just go away.

    http://www.wral.com/...

  •  NJ-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Is Buono likely to break 40% on election day?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:16:50 PM PDT

    •  Are there third parties running? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59

      If so, I expect Christie to get 55-60% of the vote and Buono in the high 30s but I don't think she will break 40%.  As David mentioned, today's poll is the only one showing her breaking 30%.

    •  Likely (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MrLiberal

      Doesn't look that way as of now.  Based on the Q poll, I think she'll get 37 or 38.

      http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

      by Paleo on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 12:26:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Christie being down to 58% if a pretty big deal (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, JBraden, nomandates

      I realize that's still an amazing number for a Republican in New Jersey but most pundits(even the smart ones like Nate Cohn) are vastly overrating his crossover appeal given that its pretty obvious so much of it is post sandy goodwill.

      I think Buono has a chance to reach 40%, most likely ends up in the mid to high thirties. If she manages to reach 40% Christie will probably have relatively mediocre approvals by the time the primaries roll around and the Sandy will be a distant memory.

    •  I think Christie wins 59-41. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Skaje, DCCyclone, SaoMagnifico, ChadmanFL

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:01:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ^^^I agree with this (4+ / 0-)

        I think a lot of Democrats come home by election day.

        I actually think Booker's win in October helps us a very small bit just by making Democrats feel good.  After all, it's a win, he replaces Christie's hand-picked Gooper caretaker, and maybe a small fraction of our voters will be motivated to show up for Buono, too.  I'm not predicting it makes any meaningful difference, but I can see it giving momentum to move a point or two in Buono's direction, enough to get her from, say, 39 to 41.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:01:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Does Buono's running mate help her? (0+ / 0-)

          Not that I think it'll make her win, but having a union official on the ticket probably provides a fire under their asses.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:07:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  That's my prediction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        Democrats in New Jersey simply gotta have a floor of about 40.  There are too many urban liberals and ethnic minorities to let a 70-30 blowout happen, like some people seem to be expecting.

  •  DCCC August targets (7+ / 0-)

    Via Roll Call, the ("do not share this list with press") list of House Republicans that the DCCC "plans to target... with a grass-roots push over the August recess."

    #AR01: Rep. Rick Crawford
    #AR02: Rep. Tim Griffin
    #CA10: Rep. Jeff Denham
    #CA21: Rep. David Valadao
    #CO06: Rep. Mike Coffman
    #IA03: Rep. Tom Latham
    #IL13: Rep. Rodney Davis
    #MN02: Rep. John Kline
    #MN03: Rep. Erik Paulsen
    #MI07: Rep. Tim Walberg
    #MI11: Rep. Kerry Bentivolio
    #NE02: Rep. Lee Terry
    #NJ02: Rep. Frank A. LoBiondo
    #NJ03: Rep. Jon Runyan
    #NY11: Rep. Michael G. Grimm
    #NY23: Rep. Tom Reed
    #PA08: Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick
    Presumably, this is the first draft of the list of top targets heading into next year. Surprised no MI-01.
  •  Georgia evolution vs. creationism makes me sick (8+ / 0-)

    From PPP.  Madness.  Pure madness.  How can an outright majority still believe in such nonsense in this day in age?

    -Georgians across party lines believe in creationism over evolution. The overall numbers are 53/29- it's 70/17 with Republicans, 43/33 among Democrats, and 46/40 with independents.

    Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

    by ChadmanFL on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 01:49:58 PM PDT

  •  Not much discussion on the Arkansas House Races (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, MichaelNY, ChadmanFL

    AR-04: Tom Cotton is vacating it, so it will be open yet again.  Some thought it could be competitive last year, but Democrats ended up doing very badly there.  The good news is, former AR-04 Rep. Mike Ross will be at the top of the ticket rather than Barack Obama.  Ross should do pretty well in his old district even if he loses statewide - Mark Pryor stands a good chance of winning AR-04, too.  Democrats, please avoid another recruitment fail here.  Mark Darr is the biggest name on the Republican side that has shown interest.

    AR-02:  Could former LG Bill Halter run here?  I know some here don't like him for his challenge of Blanche Lincoln, but it would still be nice to have someone with relevance on the Democratic side.  Tim Griffin is not an incredibly strong incumbent.

    •  No, the biggest name on the Republican side (7+ / 0-)

      is Bruce Westerman. Westerman is the House Majority Leader who represents Garland and Saline County in the State Legislature. He is probably the front runner. There are a lot of votes in the Republican primary from Garland and Westerman seems to know how to raise money.

      Darr, OTOH, currently lives in the 3rd Congressional District. There was speculation he was going to move to Clark County, which would at least be a respectable place for a Republican to mount a congressional campaign. But the latest rumors say that Darr is going to be moving to rural Scott County (Republican primary voters are few and far between here). Darr might be able to carry the part of the 4th that goes into Northern Arkansas, but those counties are pretty empty. He will have to do well in Miller/Columbia/Union to win.

      I'd like to see someone else run in AR-02. Not a huge fan of Halter.

      •  Agree on Halter (4+ / 0-)

        He's a lot of hype, but doesn't strike me as a great recruit.

        But I bet he's better than Gene Jeffries!

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:44:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think most people who can start a website (5+ / 0-)

          may end up being better than Gene Jeffries.  

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:50:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Halter would do well in AR-02 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And would bring in a lot of money. In lieu of something like a Broadway candidacy or something, he might be the best option.

          Anyway, not sure who Democrats could run in AR-04. Steve Harrelson might be good. He just barely lost a district that had become dark red, and he lost because he underperformed in the bluer areas (I'm taking this commentary straight from GradyDem).

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 08:15:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How would Halter do well? (5+ / 0-)

            Mike Beebe hates him and Mike Ross and Mark Pryor strongly dislike him. At least Halter had an "angle" in the 2010 Senate race. My guess is he would get no money were he to run.

            Any State Senator from AR-04 who could raise money and run a campaign would be good. Harrelson, Teague, Maloch, Pierce etc.

            •  Well, Halter (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              has screwed up many times over, so what you're saying doesn't surprise me.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 09, 2013 at 02:20:09 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  AR-04 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, skibum59, MichaelNY

      Cotton will also be at the top of the ticket...

  •  MD-Gov: Heather Mizeur's Illinois ties (0+ / 0-)

    I'd figure that I'd share this photo, which Heather Mizeur posted to her campaign Facebook page, in which she mentioned that she was first introduced to politics when, as a student at Blue Mound High School in Blue Mound, Illinois (a small town in Macon County, southwest of Decatur), she was an intern to then-Democratic Illinois State Senator Penny Severns.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 02:59:41 PM PDT

  •  NJ-Sen: Got my sample ballot last night. (9+ / 0-)

    It seems Booker got endorsed by the Burlington County Dem Party as he uses their official tagline.  Pallone's tagline is "Democrat for U.S. Senate" and Holt's is "Teacher, Scientist, Progressive."  Sheila Oliver has no tagline, just her name.

    Also, when I was at the gym yesterday, I saw on CNN (muted) a Pallone and Holt ad back-to-back.  Pallone's running as a liberal and Holt is running as a wonk and promoter of civil liberties.  I'm torn, but I think I'll vote for Holt.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:31:43 PM PDT

    •  I believe that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JDJase, MrLiberal

      in NJ primaries candidates use taglines as real short adverts.  Though they aim to get the county party endorsement to get their "seal of approval" as a tagline.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 03:34:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NYTimes/Siena poll (5+ / 0-)

    Mayor
    Quinn 25%
    Thompson 16%
    de Blasio 14%
    Weiner 10%
    Liu <5%

    City Comptroller
    Spitzer 44%
    Stringer 35%

  •  Great article about Indiana 2004 Governor's race (8+ / 0-)

    that is the seed of where Indiana is today. Failure of then Gov. Joe Kernan to run much of a campaign against Mitch Daniels and allowing him to get away with his phony RV and pork tenderloin sandwiches and how he hid his radical agenda. I remember back to the 2004 campaign and remember how Mitch Daniels was visiting what seemed like every county, while you could only get Kernan to hit some bigger places in Southern Indiana like Evansville, New Albany and Jeffersonville. Then add his choice for Lt. Gov, Kathy Davis, a very qualified and competent executive at Cummins Engines, added nothing politically. It seemed for much of 2004 that Kernan had been pushed into running after Gov. Frank O'Bannon died unexpectedly. At the point he died, there was a contest between St. Sen. Vi Simpson (D-Bloomington), and former DNC Chair Joe Andrew, who put a member of the ultra-wealthy Simon family in Indiana on his ticket, who then left the ticket. It always seemed Kernan was never really in it. All of this led to imposition of a radical GOP agenda, much of it before it even hit the country, such as Voter ID and selling the Toll Road. And then after he got the State House back, some of the most anti-teacher agenda in the country, gutting school funding, defunding Planned Parenthood, right to work, etc.

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 04:06:47 PM PDT

    •  Correct me if I'm wrong, but (0+ / 0-)

      can't the legislature override gubernatorial vetoes with a simple majority? It seems that Kernan's loss only hastened the inevitable by a few years at worst. No way could we have held the state house in 2010 even if he had won reelection in 2008, though had both of those happened we'd have controlled redistricting for another decade.

      Seems like a terrible system where you can't possibly force a redistricting compromise through deadlocked partisan control; Ohio's state legislative districts are the same way as are Pennsylvania's AFAIK.

      •  You underestimate the political animal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, Christopher Walker

        that Mitch Daniels is. Had he lost in 2004, there would have likely been an open seat in 2008 since Kernan would have likely stepped aside after 1 and a half terms. He pumped enormous amounts of money into GOP candidates in 2006 and 2008, where it kept Dems from getting at the 55 seat threshold. Had he not actively recruited so many strong candidates and then flooded money behind them, the 2010 legislative elections may have been different. Dems may have started at a 54-58 seat baseline (without the Mitch money, they could have held going into 2010- HD-4, HD-15, HD-20, HD-21, HD-26, HD-35, HD-45, HD-72, HD-92). Mitch kept the margins of Democratic victory in the House low. Also, factor in the incompetent 2010 state party, the Evan Bayh jumping ship, and the House leadership dumping the firms that had helped them win majorities in 2006 and 2008, things could have been different, meaning Dems could have drawn their own State House map in 2011, because the House and Senate have an understanding that they pass each other's maps. Things could have been very different.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:22:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Any idea of how to climb back in the state? (0+ / 0-)

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:09:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's going to be really hard (3+ / 0-)

            The state legislative maps really screwed us.  Outside of Marion County and the Region, almost everywhere Democrats are reduced to a small number of safe seats, with Republicans favored everywhere else.  As tame as the Congressional GOP gerrymander was (compared to what could have been), the legislative one was really tough.

            I think in the short term, we have to make the Republicans own every unpopular thing that happens in this state.  It shouldn't be hard, as they are running the show.  And Mike Pence really was almost absent as governor.  The first step would be to see if John Gregg does run again in 2016, and can he be successful.

  •  Good names for HI-01 (3+ / 0-)

    Ikaika Anderson seems like a solid progressive young guy, and Mark Takai is a seasoned Democratic legislator. Much better choices, IMO, than conservaDem Will Espero and greenhorn Stanley Chang.

  •  HI-01: Candidate's ages (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Christopher Walker

    Will Espero is 53
    Mark Takai is 46
    Ikaika Anderson is 35
    Stanley Chang is 30

    I think based on age and the fact that he's been in the race the longest, I'm still partial to Chang. Although if the awesomely named Brickwood Galuteria runs, my loyalties may be tested.

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 05:06:51 PM PDT

  •  WA: Dave Reichert says he is looking at (8+ / 0-)

    higher office. Either governor or Senator.

    Sounds like he is saying he might run for Senate if Murray retires, but I dont know what the chances are of that happening in 2016. And even in an open race, I'm not sure he could win in a presidential year. He might have missed an opportunity for Senate in 2010, when Murray narrowly defeated Rossi.

    Governor might be a better option, given Inslee's not so great approvals. But again, the issue is running in a presidential year, which is made more difficult especially if Inslee's numbers rebound.

    link

  •  WI-Gov: Campaign finance complaint against Walker (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    The progressive organization One Wisconsin Now has filed a complaint with the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB), alleging that Scott Walker's gubernatorial campaign has committed systematic campaign finance violations:

    Gov. Scott Walker's latest campaign finance filing fails to disclose employment information, as required by state law, for 240 large contributions, according to an analysis by One Wisconsin Now. Going back to 2009, when Walker began his run for Governor in earnest, his reports have failed to disclose legally required employer information for 7,512 big money donors giving over $100 totaling $2,330,197.98 in contributions.

    One Wisconsin Now Executive Director Scot Ross commented, "We're not just talking about one instance of sloppy bookkeeping here. Gov. Walker has a long and well-established pattern of complete and utter contempt for following the law when it comes to disclosing the required information about the big money givers footing the bill for him to pursue his political ambitions."

    Wisconsin State Statute section 11.06(1)(b) requires candidates and officeholders disclose, "The occupation and name and address of the principal place of employment, if any, of each individual contributor whose cumulative contributions for the calendar year are in excess of $100," on their campaign finance reports. One Wisconsin Now has filed a complaint with the state Government Accountability Board against the Walker campaign for its violations of this statute.

    Here's a copy of the complaint against Walker.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:02:10 PM PDT

  •  YDA Convention (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    I asked a week ago, but I'll check again. I just checked in for the national young democrats event in San Antonio. Is anyone else here?

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 06:10:34 PM PDT

  •  I hope Dante de Blasio runs for office eventually (3+ / 0-)

    and keeps the afro.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 07:47:44 PM PDT

  •  KS-Gov: I haven't been following this (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, KingofSpades, jncca

    but were we aware of this yet?

    Davis for Kansas

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:50:44 PM PDT

    •  The treasurer is William Kassebaum (0+ / 0-)

      He's a Republican lawyer, so whoever Paul Davis is, we at least know he's a Republican primary opponent.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:57:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh no (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, MichaelNY, KingofSpades, jncca

        He's a f*ing Democrat!?

        Excuse my lack of knowledge here, but it appears that Paul Davis, a Democratic state representative from Lawrence, is running for Governor with a Republican treasurer.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:59:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kassebaum (3+ / 0-)

          We know what family he's from, I think. Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum would be ostracized as a "RINO," if she suddenly returned. She was always a moderate, rational thinker, and very bipartisan-minded. So even if he's a Republican, he's presumably from the moderate wing that took a beating recently. There is plenty of history of cooperation between moderate Republicans and Democrats in Kansas. Maybe we should call that "What's Right with Kansas," except that it's been mostly in the past, as of late.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:06:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Just checked his FB page and yes, he's a Dem (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

          he IDs as a moderate.  I guess he's reaching out to the moderate GOP faction for support.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:09:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's the House Minority Leader (4+ / 0-)

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 10:13:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  the moderate GOP in Kansas (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bjssp

            took a severe thrashing in the Republican primaries in 2012. My notes say a well-orchestrated putsch by the extremist wing of the Republican party defeated 8 incumbent state senators and replaced them with wingnuts in the general election.

            It would be nice to hope that this surfacing Kassebaum attached to the Davis campaign signals outreach to the battered former middle of the GOP. There may be resentments that can usefully be tapped.  

            A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

            by Christopher Walker on Fri Aug 09, 2013 at 08:50:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I certainly can't recall it (6+ / 0-)

      but if anyone is beatable, it's Brownback.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 08, 2013 at 09:59:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Did anybody see Gillibrand on the Daily Show? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17

    I thought that was kinda awkward when Oliver asked her about her corporate donors.

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