Based on data released from states so far, KFF finds that about 48 percent of families currently buying their insurance on the individual market—they don't have coverage through an employer—will receive subsides averaging $5,548 per family, which is about two-thirds of the average cost of a benchmark "silver" policy offered through the exchanges. A Kaiser official explains.
"About half of the people won't be paying the sticker price," said Gary Claxton, director of the health care marketplace project at Kaiser, an information clearinghouse on the health care system. "The people who get help will get quite a lot of help."As an example, a young, single male who now has a bare-bones, catastrophic health insurance plan that he bought on the individual market could end up paying more, depending on his income and where he lives. But in paying more, he's also receiving comprehensive coverage that will lower his out-of-pocket spending on services. If he's making less than $46,000 a year, he'll receive the subsidy. That subsidy goes directly to the insurance company when he enrolls.
"Many, but certainly not all, of the people who don't get tax credits will pay more," he said. "How much more will be a function of a lot of different things."
About a million people, KFF estimate, will benefit from being newly eligible for Medicaid. Millions more will continue to get the same coverage they've previously had through their employers. And millions new customers, people who have been uninsured, will get the subsidy and have insurance. Which likely means that the majority of people participating in the exchanges aren't going to be paying the "sticker price" for their insurance, but they "after markdowns" price with the subsidy.
If you want to get an idea of what you might be paying on the exchange, KFF has this subsidy calculator to help.