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Primal Scream -- "Movin' On Up"

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:00:20 AM PDT

  •  Anyone recognizes this music? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, HoosierD42
  •  Detroit Primary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Darth Jeff, JDJase

    A few days old, but the Detroit Free Press did an analysis of the mayoral primary, and found that Duggan likely won nearly 95% of the city's precincts.

    Mike Duggan appears to have swept up victories in most of the city’s voting precinct in his win over Benny Napoleon in Tuesday’s mayoral primary.

    A Free Press analysis of unofficial results shows that write-in votes, the vast majority for the former Detroit Medical Center CEO, carried 574 Detroit voting precincts, or 94% of 611 precincts citywide. There were three precincts where no ballots were cast and another where, of the four people who voted, two chose accountant Tom Barrow, one picked former state Rep. Lisa Howze and one vote was for a write-in, leaving Barrow the victor. (Barrow ended the night with less than 4% of the citywide vote.)

    ...

    Napoleon won in 32 voting precincts in his bid to replace Mayor Dave Bing, who is not seeking re-election.

    No telling how deep Duggan's support is given the lowish turnout, but it's obvious it's geographically broad.  No real eastside/westside, rich/poor dynamic in these voting patterns.
  •  Anthony Weiner at the Dominican Day Parade (6+ / 0-)

    Not sure if this was mentiioned yet.  Just look at the pictures.  He really has lost his mind.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/...

    Anthony Weiner showed no signs of letting up in his bid for mayor on Sunday despite a poll revealing that he has hit a record high for unpopularity among New Yorkers.

    Weiner appeared at the annual Dominican Day parade in Manhattan, adding a somewhat maniacal presence to proceedings as he dashed around in a pair of bright red pants while clutching a bullhorn.

    At one point, Weiner pulled a face as he grabbed a huge plantain handed to him by a giggling bystander on Sixth Avenue.

    The embattled Democrat recently admitted to a second 'sexting' scandal after resigning his congressional seat over a similar controversy in 2011.

    Weiner has set a new record with an 80 per cent unfavorable rating among New Yorkers, according to a Siena College poll this month, revealed Politico.

    Supporters of the Democrat politician marched stoically behind him holding a banner which read 'Weiner!' in yellow letters.

    The politician charged up and down Sixth Avenue in Manhattan in tomato-red pants, a white shirt and sneakers after making a more sombre appearance earlier in the day at Brooklyn churches.

    The 32nd annual Dominican Day Parade that featured thumping music, merengue dancing and the mayoral candidates stretched over 15 blocks of Sixth Avenue from 37th Street to 52nd Street and lasted most of the afternoon.

    Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

    by ChadmanFL on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:58:07 AM PDT

  •  NYC Elections (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico, wadingo

    I posted a thing on this yesterday but I think I'm leaning toward voting for the following:

    Mayor: De Blasio
    Comptroller: Spitzer
    Public Advocate: James
    Brookllyn Borough Prez: Adams (he's unopposed I think)
    Brooklyn DA: Thompson
    City Council: Reynoso

    Anyone have a case to make against any of these?  And is there a race that I'm missing?

    •  My ballot (6+ / 0-)

      Mayor - DeBlasio
      Comptroller - Stringer
      Public Advocate - James
      Manhattan BP - Leaning towards Lappin, though I'm not 100% sure about this one
      City Council - Vince Morgan (the incumbent, Inez Dickens, seems to be kind of awful)

      Manhattan's DA appears to be unopposed.

    •  Why James for Public Advocate? (0+ / 0-)

      Only caught a bit of the debate last night and am still a bit unclear on who to vote for.

      For me the only difference is Queens Borough President: Melinda Katz

    •  Why not Stringer? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, betelgeux

      Despite occupying a basically ceremonial post, he still tried to leverage it to the best of his ability, rather than just collecting a check like most of the Borough Presidents. He's just as leftwing as Spitzer, and not a showboat or potential scandal for the party. All else equal, wouldn't you also want someone who's not completely ethically bankrupt in an auditing position?

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:33:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Subject to change... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Mayor: John Liu with a big asterisk.  I agree with him most on the issues and think he'd make the best mayor warts and all.  But unless he gets a SuperPAC up quick to make up for his loss of funding I'll likely pragmatically vote for Bill deBlasio.

      Comptroller: Spitzer.  I think he'll be more aggressive than Scott Stringer.   The amount of money Bloomberg and his cronies were able to steal from NYC because Thompson's "go along to get along" comptrollership was astounding.  And you need even more steel in your blood if you're going against a fellow Democrat.  Spitzer is infamous for being disagreeable.  That sunk him as Governor.  But for this office it works.

      Public Advocate: Cathy Guerriero.  She's a tough as nails and again someone who will keep the Mayor honest.  Tish James is impressive as hell.  I hope she runs for Mayor if she wins.  And I'll declare my bias which probably doesn't apply to most of you.  I'm voting for Guerriero mostly because she was born in Staten Island and is familiar with Staten Island issues and what Staten Island needs.  Otherwise I'd be voting for Tish.

      Tish is also well capable of standing up to Quinn.  In fact Quinn removed her from her chairmanship for helping expose the Citytime scandal and burried her on sanitation.  Tish is fearless and courageous and would make a wonderful Public Advocate.

      Staten Island Borough President: Lou Leidy.  He's unopposed.  I'll vote for Jimmy Oddo in the general.  Who the party should've cross-endorsed.  From what I heard the negotiations were just handled poorly.

      I don't think much of Eric Adams but if I lived in Brooklyn I'd vote for him just to get him out of the State Senate.

      City Council: I love John Mancusso but I think Mendy will make a stronger general election candidate.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:15:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My ballot (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, MichaelNY

      Mayor: DeBlasio
      Comptroller: Stringer
      Public Advocate: James
      Queens Borough Prez: Katz
      City Council: Constantinides

      30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

      by The Caped Composer on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:39:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I suppose I'm going to have to do some (0+ / 0-)

    research on the non-Mayoral/Comptroller NYC races.  I've been woefully disengaged.

    I know I'm voting for De Blasio.  Haven't decided in the Comptroller's race.

    I'm trying to find out what other races are going to be on my ballot, but the Board of Elections doesn't have a sample ballot up.  I'll have to give them a call...

    One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

    by AUBoy2007 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 07:51:47 AM PDT

    •  I never got the sense he was going to run. nt (4+ / 0-)
    •  So, it's only Likely R now? (12+ / 0-)

      /sarcasm

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:03:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I thought we were going to have to wait (5+ / 0-)

      until January for that news!

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:03:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Does MI GOP finally rally around Land? (3+ / 0-)

      Or do they keep on looking for another candidate to back?  I wonder what's their beef with Land - She's been elected statewide, is wealthy through Land & Co, a family Apartment rental business - net worth upwards of $40M and indicated a willingness to partially self fund.  

      Is she brutal on the stump?  Do they think that net worth would hurt her?  She's rich but self made.  Doesn't look to be a slum lord type or anything near that.  Unlike Camp wouldn't have a vote record to have to defend, she'd be a blank slate.  Seems to be the religious type which would play well in Western Michigan and the UP.  

      NRSC must have found something that they think would kill her electorally.  Is she too far right politically? She could hide that given there is no vote record for her.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:12:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe it's not that she's bad but that Camp (0+ / 0-)

        was better. He has a base of support that doesn't have.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:18:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Some positives, some negatives (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        One the face of things, she seems pretty strong: a 29-21 favourability according to a recent PPP poll, which is pretty good for someone with low name recognition. And as a self funding, termed out SOS (as opposed to defeated) she certainly shouldn't be underestimated.

        However, on the flip side, she's down 5 against Peters according to the poll, and I don't buy her winning 34% of the African American vote, so she's probably got an even more uphill battle, especially as Michigan is federally quite blue. As SoS, she probably engaged in a lot of non controversial issues which make her seem moderate and electable, but having watched some of her speeches on youtube, she probably is a lot more conservative than it seems. For example, she thinks that RNC chair Reince Priebus is 'not conservative enough', and that she's happy about the RNC in general becoming more conservative. She's not tea-party crazy, but she's certainly not running for senate as a Susan Collins or Mark Kirk type, who might stand a chance in Michigan.

        •  It isn't a top tier state for them (4+ / 0-)

          If they were to win here then I count 7 other seats plus maybe Iowa that would go Republican first. Seems like a decent recruit to me given those circumstances. But then they talk big about putting CO and MN and NH into play which just seems a little greedy.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:01:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It is an open seat. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, Zack from the SFV

            But I agree the republicans would probably have a higher chance of success actually spending heavily on going after incumbent senators in red states rather than trying in Michigan (even if it is an open seat).

          •  I would even go so far as to say that, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Possible Liberal

            unless something goes majorly wrong with the Peters campaign, or we have a year like 2010, this race is probably right on the borderline between Likely and Safe D at this point.  Peters is a hell of a campaigner, and I really don't see any way the Republicans take this seat from us.

            Not to mention all of our GOP House members, with the exception of maybe Amash, are essentially some dudes.  And there's no way in hell Amash wins a general.

            •  If I were them I'd try to get Amash in (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Possible Liberal

              his quirky Pauliness might do a bit better than a conventional Republican in Michigan, or might not, but it'd get him out of the House.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:10:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well, yeah, getting him out of the House (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Possible Liberal

                would be the one bright side for the GOP.  But his problem is that no one outside of the Paulites really likes him.  People who've met him seem to mostly agree he's a douchebag.  Granted, the same was true of McCotter, and he kept getting re-elected.  But he would never have won a statewide federal race, and neither will Amash.

                If Amash runs, it's still no worse than Likely D.

      •  Don't know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        An open senate doesn't come along often so I wouldn't be surprised if more candidates run.  There have been several other candidates mentioned like Holland mayor Kurt Dykstra and Judge Kim Small.

        I do think Land is overrated as a candidate.  She has never run for this type of office.  SoS doesn't deal with the type of issues that will come up in senate campaign.  Her 2010 run for governor didn't go well and she dropped out before the primary.  While her higher name recognition does help, it doesn't change the fact that she's a pretty conservative candidate running in a Democratic state.

        •  All of the "bigger name" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          GOP potentials in this state are still some dudes, though.  Especially compared to Peters, who has done a good job at getting his name out there in recent years.

          Having said that, I am surprised that there haven't been more Republicans running here.  I highly doubt any of them would win, but if you're a Republican in MI with senate ambitions, this may be your last chance for a while.  I think it's probably pretty safe to say at this point that Stabenow's not going anywhere any time soon, and Peters will probably have this seat for as long as he wants it.

      •  I think she must have some serious... (5+ / 0-)

        Electability issues that have yet to come to the surface. On paper, she's a fine candidate, better than I'd expect the GOP to land in a blue state; they must know something about her that we don't (yet).

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:59:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think she might be hyper-Religious type... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          redrelic17

          Which means strictly anti-choice, anti-contraceptive.  Just get that feeling from reading about her husband and what charities Land & Co are involved with.  

          If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:20:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  She's won statewide, yes, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8

        but as Secretary of State.  She's never been in the US House or held any kind of federal office.  And campaigning for SoS is very different from campaigning for US House or Senate.  It's entirely possible that she may not be a good candidate for federal office.

    •  I wonder if this means (0+ / 0-)

      The GOP will still try to find an alternative to Land. Who else would they go after?

    •  Good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

      by Paleo on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:18:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Reposted from my diary via user blue in NC (8+ / 0-)

    Per the General Assembly, these are the types of acceptable identification under NC's new voter ID law:

    (1) A North Carolina drivers license issued under Article 2 of Chapter 20 of the General Statutes, including a learner's permit or a provisional license.
    (2) A special identification card for nonoperators issued under G.S. 20-37.7.
    (3) A United States passport.
    (4) A United States military identification card, except there is no requirement that it have a printed expiration or issuance date.
    (5) A Veterans Identification Card issued by the United States Department of Veterans Affairs for use at Veterans Administration medical facilities facilities, except there is no requirement that it have a printed expiration or issuance date.
    (6) A tribal enrollment card issued by a federally recognized tribe.
    (7) A tribal enrollment card issued by a tribe recognized by this State under Chapter 71A of the General Statutes, provided that card meets all of the following criteria:
    a. Is issued in accordance with a process approved by the State Board of Elections that requires an application and proof of identity equivalent to the requirements for issuance of a special identification card by the Division of Motor Vehicles under G.S. 20-7 and G.S. 20-37.7.
    b. Is signed by an elected official of the tribe.
    (8) A drivers license or nonoperators identification card issued by another state, the District of Columbia, or a territory or commonwealth of the United States, but only if the voter's voter registration was within 90 days of the election."
    So not only can you not use a student ID issued by a public university, but you can't even use an out of state driver's license if it's been more than 90 days between registration and the election. But any sort of military ID whatsoever is acceptable even without expiration or issuance dates... They aren't even pretending to hide the fact that this targets students.

    And here's some more voter suppresion:

    The Watauga County Board of Elections voted Monday to eliminate an early voting site and election-day polling precinct on the campus of Appalachian State University....The Watauga board also voted 2-1 Monday to combine the three Boone voting precincts into one, eliminating an election day polling site on campus. More than 9,300 Boone residents will now be slated to cast ballots at a county building that only has about 35 parking spots.

    The Pasquotank County Board of Elections on Tuesday barred an Elizabeth City State University senior from running for city council, ruling his on-campus address couldn't be used to establish local residency. Following the decision, the head of the county's Republican Party said he plans to challenge the voter registrations of more students at the historically black university ahead of upcoming elections.

    In the Pasquotank case, county GOP chairman Pete Gilbert challenged the residency of Montravias King, an Elizabeth City State senior who has been registered to vote in the county since coming to the college in 2009. King says he plans to stay after he graduates in May. King, who lives in an on-campus residence hall, filed to run for a seat on the city council representing the ward that includes the campus. Gilbert cited the wording of state law requiring voters to be registered at their "permanent" domicile. He argued a dorm room occupied for only part of the year is a temporary residence. The GOP controlled elections board agreed, voting 2-1 to bar King from the ballot.

    But Rand Paul said that there isn't racism anymore because blacks turned out at higher rates than whites, so it's fine that section 5 was gutted!
  •  damn (5+ / 0-)

    McCrory actually vetoes a bill passed by the nuts in the NC leg (drug testing for welfare recipients): http://thinkprogress.org/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:07:10 AM PDT

  •  DOOM for Republicans (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, LordMike

    sapelcovits beat me to it, in yesterday's thread. Check out his remarks here.

    I'd like to add that I suspect this is more of an image problem--right now, anyway. After all, as the Politico article linked to says, midterms usually feature fewer of our voters and more of theirs. That could change to some degree, and if it does, that's a big problem for the Republicans. But as Politico notes, swing voters could see the threat of, say, a government shutdown over ObamaCare to be yet another sign they aren't serious about governing. Perhaps this won't help us in seemingly difficult races for the Senate, but what about the House? And despite some troubles in Montana and South Dakota, I'd say we are doing pretty well, overall.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:15:15 AM PDT

    •  Split control of Congress and the White House (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone

      I think precludes a massive swing in either direction. Though a game changer is possible given budget battles to come.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:43:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  asdf (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:04:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  To be sure, a less white electorate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, DCCyclone

        should help us even in the midterms. I think it was DCCyclone who said that the electorate will always be getting less white, even in the midterms. It won't be as helpful as it will be in a presidential cycle, and it's not clear when we might reach a tipping point where we are favored simply because the electorate is so nonwhite, but I'm not sure there's any reason to expect it to get worse for us.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:09:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-04 (0+ / 0-)

    Tom McClintock is a MURRICAN. http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    someone please tell me that this district is experiencing demographic change like the rest of California?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:19:07 AM PDT

    •  I (0+ / 0-)

      don't believe so sadly.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:57:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then let's make the change in CA-04 (0+ / 0-)

        We don't need Tea Party nuts and birthers like Tom McClintock occupying office in California.  This is a sunny state full of chill people (absent of snobs in Beverly Hills) and needs to be rid of the real crazies.

        Start building the party, doing voter registration drives and of course, giving the conservatives hell for their "conservative principles."

  •  Worry about upcoming school term keeping me awake, (4+ / 0-)

    I'm surfing DKE while waiting for the Xanax I took to kick in.

  •  Why are we going straight to the weekend OT? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, wadingo

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:27:46 AM PDT

  •  economic portents, news, why (3+ / 0-)

    people love DeFazio.

    Things are looking up for the US, while BRIC countries seeing slower growth.

    stories in the Portland and Salem papers about Oregonians in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that Obama created by executive order, and how its making life a bit easier for them. I am really hoping we get immigration reform to complete this, though.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:35:44 AM PDT

    •  I thought this might interest you, James Allen. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      It's (a) a sign of why anyone interested in health care reform should be reading this blog, (b) Peggy Noonan is a waste in any number of ways, and (c) why Oregon might have some of the best legislators in the country. Here's the link.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:44:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  a woman from Cornelius (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        FWI, Cornelius is home to some of the most pivotal legislative districts in the state. I'm sure the incumbents will fight to get something done for the woman.

        The state Senator is Bruce Starr (R), who faces potentially the toughest re-election of his life. He's sitting in a diverse D+6 district that is now more Democratic than the state as a whole in presidential elections. The state Rep. is Ben Unger (D) who is a freshman who just unseated a freshman Republican. She might try to run against him again, and if so, it'll be a tough fight.

        Part of the reason is that as well as the other two cities in the district being heavily non-white, I think Cornelius is actually barely majority Hispanic in total population, and has fairly low turnout especially in midterms. So this will area could give us a couple down to the wire races next fall.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:58:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I will be voting against Sen. Starr next year (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I think it'll be a tight race for reelection. Starr wasn't a particularly moderate vote this legislative session, and the first thing he did once it ended was blast out a fundraising email asking people to donate so he can continue blocking any attempt at gun control in Oregon.

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:04:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  well, he voted for a tax increase... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8

            before he voted against it.

            I'm in Devlin's district in SW Portland so I'll just be padding his margin.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:20:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  p.s. (0+ / 0-)

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:01:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I am hearing pretty much constant optimism... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Gygaxian, DCCyclone

      From people about the economy coming back to life in Oregon.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:02:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  South Dakota Senate Maj. Leader Olson Resigns (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, JDJase

    This happened a few days ago, but I didn't see coverage of it here. He's going to become CEO of Heartland Consumer Power District.

    He hasn't been in office all that long. He was originally in the State House was elected to the Senate in 2008, and then re-elected twice, in 2010 and 2012. He won a solid but not huge victory in 2008, stomped in 2012, and stomped a little less in 2012. I have no idea what the presidential numbers are for the district, nor what our bench might look like, so who knows if we might have a shot at winning it.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:41:15 AM PDT

  •  WV-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, JDJase

    Is this Harry Reid's candidate who will make WV 'very competitive'?

    PARKERSBURG - Williamstown resident David B. Wamsley has announced he will seek the Democrartic party nomination for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the retirement of U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller.
    He plans to run to the left of President Obama on healthcare:
    "For years I've had a significant level of interest in health care in America," he said Tuesday. " What is called Obama Care is really not what President Obama wanted nor what most Democrats wanted; it's a botch with a lot of benefits but some of the negative involves the self employed who will have to pay significant levels of cash to have insurance."

    Wamsley said what he supports is free health care. He said it is inevitable.

    Not only that, but Mr. Wamsley also supports background checks and green energy.
  •  Minneapolis Mayor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    A total of 35 candidates filed with the filing deadline passing earlier this week. Really though, there are only two candidates that have any shot: Mark Andrew and Betsy Hodges. They are both quite liberal Democrats, with the only real policy difference being Andrew being anti-stadium, and Hodges being pro-stadium. The stadium is being built and that's water under the bridge. So really it is Safe D, its just a matter of if it will be Andrew or Hodges.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:17:24 AM PDT

  •  RNC votes to boycott debates on (10+ / 0-)

    NBC, CNN, Telemundo and CNN Espanol unless they cancel their Hillary miniseries projects.

    I get why the RNC is doing this. I mean, it involves the "liberal" media AND Hillary Clinton. The base must love it.

    But it's still amazing to me that they honestly think the moderators were the problem in the 2012 debates. I think the debate moment everyone remembers is Rick Perry not remembering the 3rd cabinet department he wants to get rid of. And that was all Rick Perry's fault.

     link.

  •  RNC to Ban CNN, NBC from Pres. Debates (9+ / 0-)

    Apparently, the Hillary Clinton miniseries, one of which will be produced by Fox's entertainment unit even if it airs on NBC, is just too goddamn much. Here's the link.

    I can understand the desire to have more control over the debates, including moderators, and like Kevin Drum, I feel there are both legitimate and purely entertainment-related reasons for wanting a debate hosted by, say, Rush Limbaugh. Overall, though, this is a childish response, and I won't be surprised if they don't go through with it.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:36:47 AM PDT

  •  Now its Scott Brown to Iowa (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    No one can really be sure what Scott Brown wants to do, but no-one just 'heads to Iowa' either.

    Maybe he's hoping to go the MA-Gov 2014, President 2016 route similar to Romney?

  •  Here is the KY House Map (5+ / 0-)

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:56:43 AM PDT

    •  A few things I note (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      is that Rep. Lynn Bechler (R-Marion) takes a big finger into Hopkinsville. Rep. Ben Waide (R-Madisonville) is again paired with Rep. Myron Dossett (R-Pembroke). Waide may run for that State Senate. Looks like no new open seat in Bowling Green. Rep. Ryan Quarles (R-Georgetown) sees Scott County really chopped up. Dems seem to be looking at Rep. Hubert Collins leaving at some point- heavily GOP Johnson and Martin Counties are in different districts now. Rep. Rick Rand (D-Bedford), Rep. Terry Mills (D-Lebanon) and Rep. Brian Linder (R-Dry Ridge) appear to be big winners.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:05:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's kind of proactive (0+ / 0-)

        Hubert Collins has been there since '91 and so it's reasonable to assume he may likely retire this decade.  So why not dilute his counties.  Since there's legal time, they can play musical chairs and move to neighboring seats.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:14:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  So top Dem targets seem to be (0+ / 0-)

        HD-50, HD-4, HD-6(?, for it seems that it has some Dem precincts in southern Christian County now), HD-96 (What's that county that York swapped for Lewis?).  What else?

        Also, James Kay is a winner as his share of Fayette County is now more Dem (why else explain that thin arm that explodes into two branches).  Did Dems make Quarles' district more Dem?  By a cursory look, do you like this map?  They toned it down somewhat like the GOP did to their Senate map, but still good.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:18:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  IIRC, the GOP incumbent retired under the 2012 map (0+ / 0-)

          in HD-50 but unretired when the maps were thrown out.  A Nelson-only HD is definitely Dem-leaning.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:25:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That was the only reason David Floyd was (0+ / 0-)

            challenged in that district. It is unlikely Dick Heaton runs in 2014. Floyd has a lot of popularity there.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:31:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Heaton still got 46.6% in a redder district (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8

              Now with just Nelson County, it should be an easier get and with a non-Presidential year turnout: http://ballotpedia.org/...

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:34:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Still not likely for him to run again. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lordpet8

                Floyd is still hard to beat.

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:41:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  As you said, recruitment matters a lot. (0+ / 0-)

                  And with a big candidate for US Senate, Stumbo said recruitment is getting easier.

                  Would you say they added a good number Dems to Bechler and to the Calloway-based district?

                  "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                  by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:43:37 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Members paired (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Dossett (R-Pembroke) and Waide (R-Madisonville)
      Collins (D-Whittenville) and Stacy (D-West Liberty)
      Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) and Sinnette (D-Ashland)
      Embry (R-Morganton) and DeCasare (R-Bowling Green)

      Dems didn't exactly go for the gold with this map. I have to think that two of those Dems are retiring in 2014 or Rocky Adkins will move back to Elliot County.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:12:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But still good enough, partisan wise? (0+ / 0-)

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:20:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The House will still be a fight to hold (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          The two new seats are in Eastern Jefferson County (Safe GOP) and a Spencer/Anderson (Tossup/Tilt GOP) seat. Will depend on open seats and candidates as to the playing field in 2014.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:25:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  BTW, why the heck was Jim Glenn in a close race? (0+ / 0-)

            He represents urban Owensboro.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:37:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Because he is black. (0+ / 0-)

              "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

              by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:40:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Seems the GOP doesn't have any huge problems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      with the map. They must be putting something in the water in Frankfort (like bourbon). One note is that these maps are not joined like last time. If one goes down, it goes down alone.

      https://twitter.com/...

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:15:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm, if Beshear is feeling evil (0+ / 0-)

        he could just sign the House map and pocket veto the Senate map, but that's unlikely since the Senate map isn't outrageous like last time.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:21:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not joined in litigation (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, skibum59, lordpet8

          They are in the same bill. The difference is that if the courts throw out one map, the other two maps stay in place. Given the potential issues with the SD-04, this may come into play.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:27:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  So if the Senate map is struck down (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59

            the House map is untouched?  Good.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:32:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  By the way I noticed an error in my senate data (0+ / 0-)

        I had reversed the numbers from the 2010 vote and had us winning SD-20 rather than losing it. That made the regression with 2011 and with Conway'10 go from r-squared .46 to .54.

        Anyway, I'd still like to see your non-partisan senate map if you completed it, you can either just post it here or PM me.

        Also doesn't KY have the line-item veto or is it the case that even if the maps aren't joined for litigation purposes there is still some severability clause in the bill whereby a line item veto of one map vetoes both?

  •  Purple Georgia (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, BKGyptian89

    Nate Cohn makes a somewhat specific case for Democrats to be more optimistic about Georgia than Kentucky (and Texas, not that many here are high on that state). Ed Kilgore, a Georgia native, says he makes a good case.

    As GradyDem, among possibly others, has stressed, the GDP has a lot of problems. I hope that Michelle Nunn is focused on infrastructure and mobilization. Even if it's not enough to make her win, it'll only help with future races.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:27:32 AM PDT

    •  if she gets close it could encourage others to try (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59

      later, but the "infrastructure and mobilization" effects it has on later races could be minimal. A lot of the time this stuff dissolves once the campaigns are over.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:35:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could be, or has to be? (0+ / 0-)

        I assume this stuff doesn't simply vanish, but rather is stored in some sort of electronic format.

        You know more about campaigns than I do, but I can't imagine someone putting in a lot of effort, doing a great job, winning or at least getting close, and then having nothing to show for it. I could imagine, even before state specific laws, there being a limit to how much information one campaign has, but you've got to have some way of contacting people besides randomly calling or mailing them. At the risk of sounding...something, it seems like the height of incompetency not to carry over efforts from one campaign to the next, even if there are territorial or proprietary concerns.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:04:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm already optimistic in Kentucky (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, The Caped Composer

      Mitch McConnell is right now in deep doo doo right now given he's getting attacked by the Tea Party, Jim DeMint, his Tea Party Republican challenger, Democratic groups all around and of course, Alison Grimes.

    •  OFA off-shoot should have went to GA over Tx (4+ / 0-)

      Battleground Texas is years and years away - flipping GA would have the same electoral effect as flipping Texas really, it would screw the GOP Road to the WH map completely.  Texas might be the bigger trophy, but Georgia would have been the more realistic game to hunt.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:29:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why I think OFA went to TX (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, Avenginggecko

        If Nunn is trying to build up the GA Democratic Party via her U.S. Senate campaign, that would have the effect of turning GA into a purple state right away.

        Texas would require a much larger, longer term operation, which is why OFA went to Texas.

        My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:51:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Aren't there enough people for both? (0+ / 0-)

        The GDP might be in shambles, but one thing that Georgia has going for it is a large enough population, almost certainly with a decent number of potentially wealthy benefactors, to make an impact. (If there's not enough in state right now to get something going, I imagine initial out-of-state support wouldn't be impossible.)

        Since I imagine the right finances are a possibility, I have to ask, aren't there enough people to do both?

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:39:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Well, I guess this is news: OR-Sen (4+ / 0-)
    The first Republican challenger to Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley announced her candidacy and a string of public appearances Friday, marking the beginning of what’s expected to be a lively GOP primary election.

    Jo Rae Perkins, of Albany, is the former chair of the Linn County Republican Party and a certified financial planner. In a press release, Perkins said she would stand on the “core principles of our Founding Fathers.”

    On her Facebook page, Perkins said she had signed the “Contract From America,” an agenda of conservative proposals developed in 2010 by Tea Party activists.

    link

    pretty much a some dude, though.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 10:46:24 AM PDT

    •  Good luck on Jo Rae Perkins getting much support (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      She's already lost the election in my view.  Jeff Merkley should be safe for re-election in 2014, has been an outstanding progressive Democrat and seems (from what I understand) to be representing Oregon well.  Oregon is also a deep blue state so I don't know why Perkins is running as a Tea Party Republican.

    •  sad (0+ / 0-)

      I know the Oregon GOP has basically got nothing at this point, but they should at least be able to find a Paul Sadler equivalent who won't embarrass the party.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:29:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I must say (0+ / 0-)

      I am starting to get somewhat annoyed. Even with the benefit of geographically living in one state, and culturally in another, there isn't a single interesting race shaping up for 2014 so far in my area.  It's going to probably be the most boring election I will get to take part in. Nothing in OR, nothing in WA.

      Age 25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married in September:)

      by KyleinWA on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 03:51:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  we might get an interesting congressional race (0+ / 0-)

        but otherwise it does look tame.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:48:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Perkins should marry (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      former IA Sen Roger Jepsen.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:02:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If we win Georgia in 2016... (0+ / 0-)

    Will that allow us to gain a Congressional seat there or two? Or is all the potential Dem-leaning voting population in Georgia stuck in our few safe Congressional seats there?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:09:20 AM PDT

    •  The only possibility is Kingston's seat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      and that would require a wave, I think.  Barrow could have run against him, but he decided it be better to defend his turf.  In retrospect, it was the right move as GA-12 was marginally less red than Kingson's district and the GA GOP gave him a weak challenge.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:12:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Kingston's seat could get much bluer (5+ / 0-)

        Savannah could turn out more African Americans, but the rest of the district is full of white retirement communities, Hilton Head types.  Not really the areas we expect to see getting blue.

        The best possibility would probably Rob Woodall's seat, although that would be a really long shot.  They made it much redder in redistricting by pairing parts of Gwinnett County with Forsyth, but there are still a lot of Hispanic precincts in his district and the minority population is fast growing.  If Democrats worked really hard on getting minorities to turn out that district would probably swing furthest to the left.

        •  Can't agree. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, skibum59

          Woodall's district is just terrible. Why? It has the most conservative parts of Gwinnett County, because the Republicans just gave the liberal parts to Hank Johnson.

          Forsyth county is electoral poison for Democrats. It is 95% White, gave Romney 81%, and has no conservadems. It was notorious up until the '80s as a place with no minorities. Blacks just "knew" not to move there. That part of Gwinnett would have to get so liberal as to overwhelm the forces of evil in Forsyth to unseat Woodall. Not going to happen this decade.

          At least in Kingston's district there are conservadems, and there is a growing Black population.

          Heck, I'd even put Paul Broun's district ahead of Woodall's. It's hard to overestimate how far Atlanta suburban sprawl creeps. It's already creeping into Broun's district. You can tell by the way the GOP drew Broun's district, that they know it is happening. And the southern suburbs are less wealthy, so they won't be like Tom Price's "Prosperity Gospel" district.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:04:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed on Forsyth (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, jncca

            But on Gwinnett:  They took out the black precincts in southern Gwinnett County and gave them to Hank Johnson, but pretty much all of the Hispanic population in Gwinnett remains in Woodall's district.  Romney won Woodall's part of Gwinnett 56-43, which is a few points redder than the county at large.  The Hispanic community in Georgia has had explosive growth in GA in the last decade though, and if that continues Gwinnett could get a lot bluer by 2020.

            To cancel out Forsyth Democrats would probably have to flip Romney's margin in Gwinnett, and win it by about a dozen points.  That is almost impossible, but Gwinnett is rapidly trending blue and the coastal counties are the least conservaDem part of southern Georgia which is why I think Woodall's district is closer than Kingston's.  Especially if Kingston drops out of the Senate race and stays in office in GA-01, he's unbeatable.

          •  an Indian-American girl I knew in middle school (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17

            moved to Forsyth, I think.

            I lost contact with her, but last I heard she had become conservative :(

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:04:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  pretty much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      though Kingston's seat is close to Barrow's in partisan lean. A fair map would probably give us a Republican-leaning, but trending our way district in the Atlanta area.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:13:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it depends on the type of victory. (0+ / 0-)

      If it's a standard, 51-49-style win, perhaps not. If it's below 50 percent, probably not. But if it's the sort of victory that gets us, say, a 4 or 5-point win, and/or where we'd see a romp for our side nationwide, maybe so. In that case, turnout would probably be shitty all over, and lots of marginal seats would be at risk.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:13:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dems should be happy with what they have (4+ / 0-)

      Barrow's win was originally thought unlikely.  And the GA GOP had an argument to get rid of Sanford Bishop's GA-02 (southwest Georgia: Albany, Columbus, and rural) but instead drew him a better district.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:15:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That would have been tough to do (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, James Allen, lordpet8

        to make GA-02 Republican without the map being a dummymander.

        I think the most vicious and partisan thing the Republicans could have done was draw a crescent shaped district from Columbus to Macon to Augusta, and down to Albany and Savannah on each end if they were feeling really ambitious.  It would have been over 60% black and maybe illegal in some way, but would have guaranteed three safe GOP seats south of I-20.

        •  Taking a quick look (0+ / 0-)

          that would be hard to do. I drew a district from Columbus to Augusta through Macon and it much of the black belt and it was not quite 49% African American, but well over 60% Obama. South of that one or two districts would be competitive unless they did some line drawing beyond my imagination. Problem is, with the south half of Columbus, Macon, Augusta, and some counties in between, you really don't have room in the district left to go down to Savannah and Albany.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:57:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here's my drawing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

             photo Georgia_zps557cb692.png

            Yeah, it's difficult but not impossible to cram three districts south of the Dem vote sink.  Kingston, Barrow, and Scott's districts are all over 60% McCain and GA-02 is 76% Obama, 61% Black.  There's a slim chance Barrow would have held his district but he'd have to fight hard for it as the 12th is even tougher than Mike McIntyre's current district.

            If North Carolina Republicans had drawn Georgia's map... that's the map that would have been passed.  They'd probably try to get rid of one of the black districts in Atlanta, too.

            •  I find it hard to believe that map would (0+ / 0-)

              ever pass.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:21:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The high black percentage (61%) (0+ / 0-)

                is risky, but really as far as county splits go it's not worse than NC-01.  Believe me... Georgia Democrats tried worse when they were in charge of redistricting.

                •  it screams racial gerrymander, though, (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  skibum59

                  especially being 61% black. If it was clean and that high maybe not, but being cut so precisely and being so ugly, cutting so many different communities, it definitely doesn't look like it'd be safe to go into court with.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:51:02 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Senate Conservatives Fund making waves (13+ / 0-)

    and may be moving towards outright opposing McConnell in the primary: http://editors.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:13:29 AM PDT

  •  Somewhat encouraging poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal, redrelic17

    http://www.google.com/...

    Unfortunately there are far, far too many people who are completely clueless when it comes to what's happened with the budget deficit, but the youngest demographics answer correctly at a much higher frequency!

    •  And senior citizens (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, skibum59

      are the most likely to think the deficit has increased a lot and the least likely to (correctly) think it's decreased a lot in the last 3 1/2 years.

      Maybe they still have the old association with GOP administrations as budget balancers and Democrats not caring as much about that, though that hasn't been true in at least 30 years.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:37:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Random thought (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JohnnyBoston, Possible Liberal

    If Jim Matheson ran for Governor or Senate in 2016 and had to leave his Congressional seat, could his brother (the one that ran for Governor a few cycles ago), keep the seat?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:32:24 AM PDT

    •  You mean the federal judge? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Possible Liberal, itskevin

      Doubt he would leave to run for a House seat. Especially one that wasn't a sure thing.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:55:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perhaps with a ticket consisting of (0+ / 0-)

      Jim Matheson for Governor, Huntsman Jr as a Democrat for Senate, Hilary converting to Mormonism and Scott Matheson for UT-04, the coattails might just be enough to save the seat.  I don't know much about Utah politics, but if Jim Matheson is struggling to win as a popular 7 term incumbent, I just can't imagine anyone else realistically coming close to holding it.

      •  How much has Matheson's district changed? (0+ / 0-)

        I wouldn't base all that much on 2012, considering Love was a particularly good challenger and Mormon turnout is likely the highest it's going to be in some time. And if his district changed enough so that he took on a lot of new voters, it's even more true, because incumbency probably takes a cycle or two to kick in.

        I'd also say that since his area of the state is, if I recall correctly, diversifying (and/or becoming relatively or even absolutely bluer), it'll get easier with time. I don't know if it will ever become blue within the next ten years at the presidential level, or even purple, but it should get easier for him.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:10:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It was an Obama 30% CD in 2012 (0+ / 0-)

          And Matheson's had two tough election cycles, with another likely as Mia Love tries again, this time with proper campaign managers (from Orrin Hatch's team). I'm not sure how important the Mormon coattails from Romney were in 2012, since Matheson is Mormon as well, and had a fairly close election in 2010 too (in a district he'd represented for 5 terms). Even by doubling the Latino voting portion of the state, Utah only gives Obama 28.3% (That's 2 extra points statewide) so I'm not sure how significant demographic changes are in the near future for Utah Democrats. UT-04 still seems difficult for anyone other than Matheson to hold. I reckon Texas will be blue presidentially before demographic changes yield Democrats a significant chance of keeping UT-04 competitive.

          •  2010 isn't good to take in insolation. (0+ / 0-)

            Lots of Democrats had much closer races than expected, given how bad the cycle was for us overall.

            As far as 2012 goes, I imagine that Mormons, who are still largely a Republican leaning group, were overrepresented in the population that year, even in Utah.

            As far as demographics, they might not make it easy for him or us for some time, if ever, but it will be easier. I think UT-04 will feel the effects faster than the rest of the state, since it's already more diverse and since it's becoming less white fairly quickly. We could also see some more growth with white voters. That's far from guaranteed, but it's possible.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:50:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Without Matheson (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, jncca

              The loss of his incumbency will probably throw away any near term demographic advantages. All of the Democrats holding R+5 or greater seats are entrenched incumbents like Peterson, Rahall and Barrow, and considering that UT-04 is R+16 (there are only 59 seats more republican leaning than UT-04) any non incumbent probably won't stand a chance.

              However, I agree demographics can only make things easier, and if Hispanics can turn out in greater numbers than they did in 2012, things will speed up significantly. But the seat is so red, even doubling the proportion of Hispanics in Salt Lake County probably wouldn't make things close.

              •  I imagine it'll be someone like Matheson (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Gygaxian, MichaelNY

                that can hold the seat, until it gets bluer: a centrist Mormon candidate.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:09:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Gygaxian can run eventually. (3+ / 0-)
                •  That's actually my whole point (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Matheson's brother is essentially the same as him politically, and has the hallowed Matheson name. Scott Matheson doesn't have the experience campaigning (though a run for Governor is nothing to sniff at, and Scott Matheson was always involved in Jim's campaign), but I'm sure that if the current Congressman tried for higher office, he could lend his brother some campaign staff.

                  Scott Matheson would have the benefit of instant name recognition, instant perception of centrism, and instant goodwill from Jim's years in Congress. And on the other hand, he wouldn't have a voting record to attack

                  Of course, the Utah progressives wouldn't be happy, but then they never are. I do think that having his brother take his spot would encourage Matheson to stop meddling with the relatively progressive Salt Lake County wing of the party.

                  Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                  by Gygaxian on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:23:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  What about other elected officials? (0+ / 0-)

      Are Ralph Becker or any of the city council members good prospective candidates?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:13:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Definitely not (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Possible Liberal

        Salt Lake City is essentially an entirely different entity from the rest of Utah (except for parts of Salt Lake County that are similar to SLC) and anyone who gets elected there usually has problems getting elected elsewhere. I mean, even the ultra-moderate Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon got trounced when he ran for Governor in the 2010 special election against Governor Herbert. He did slightly better than the similarly moderate Peter Cooke did in 2012 (partially because Corroon was well-known), but not by much. And this was partially because of SLC weirdness.

        And even in Salt Lake County, there's a photo which very clearly shows a divide in the county... I can't quite find it anywhere but the current County Mayor's campaign manager's facebook page (not accessible to the public), but basically, the current County Mayor is a SLC liberal state senator who ran as a fiscal conservative. The photo showed the precincts of the 2012 mayoral election, and obviously color-coded it based on the vote. It's blurry, but apparently the southern third of the county is ultra-Republican and easily voted for the Republican, the northern third+Salt Lake City voted overwhelmingly for current Mayor Ben McAdams, and the middle third voted 50-60% for McAdams. And this is in the most liberal county in Utah. I'm sure that the fiscal conservatism helped in the middle third of the county.

        But essentially, most of the rest of Utah is so ultra-Republican and anti-Salt Lake that anyone who's moderate or liberal enough to get elected here cannot get elected anywhere else in the state, except maybe Weber County (which is rapidly diversifying, but which is still very Republican because it's Hispanics can't vote yet). On the plus side, Democratic strength in Salt Lake County gives us a massive bench for County Mayor and County Council races. And anyone who can get elected to the mostly geography-based County Council can have an instant base if they decide to run for a seat their own municipality or legislative district.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:12:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov/AG (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Democratic State Assemblywoman Chris Taylor recently attended ALEC's conference in Chicago (in order to get an inside view of ALEC, an organization that could best be described as a right-wing bill mill, for liberal publications like The Progressive Magazine, you can read her piece about her experience here).

    Additionally, Moyers and Company has run this piece about Taylor infiltrating ALEC.

    To me, that's an indication that Taylor may be considering a run for higher office. You have to remember that the last time a Wisconsin Democrat went "inside" ALEC, it was none other than Mark Pocan. Since Fred Risser's state senate seat isn't up until 2016, and Mark Pocan seems to be interested in a long career in the U.S. House, Taylor's only chance at higher office in 2014 would be to run statewide, probably for Attorney General, although a gubernatorial run is not out of the question.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:13:42 PM PDT

    •  Taylor's not running for anything soon (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, jncca

      She's one of the co-chairs of the Assembly Dems Campaign Committee. She wouldn't ditch them to run for another office. Certainly not against Van Hollen either; he'd be harder to beat than Walker.

      Rumor is she's looking at governor in 2018.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:02:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  LA-05: More candidates jump into special election (5+ / 0-)

    LA-05: Republicans have been trying to unite behind state Sen. Neil Riser for the special election to replace Rep. Rodney Alexander (R), but, unfortunately for them, state Rep. Jay Morris (R) has spoiled Riser's party, and has entered the race. Morris accuses Alexander and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal of conspiring to rig the election for Riser, and cites that as the reason he is entering the race. Jindal and Alexander have denied the allegation.
    http://www.shreveporttimes.com/...

    Meanwhile, for the Democrats, Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo and state Rep. Robert Johnson have entered the race, bringing the total number of Democratic candidates in the race up to 3. They join state Rep. Marcus Hunter in the Democratic primary.
    http://www.nola.com/...
    http://www.nola.com/...

    On the other hand, state Sen. Rick Gallot (D) has said no to the race.
    http://www.nola.com/...

    Attorney Charles Kincade (D) has also said no.
    http://www.knoe.com/...

    And so has Rep. Alexander's chief of staff, Adam Terry (R).
    http://theadvocate.com/...

    Still considering the race are:
    Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy (D)
    Attorney Jeff Guerriero (R)
    Ouachita Parish School Board Superintendent Bob Webber (R)
    Attorney Ed Tarpley (N/A)
    http://theadvocate.com/...

    These guys better make a decision quickly, because the filing deadline is on Monday.

    BTW, interesting fact: Rep. Alexander's residence is in Quitman, Louisiana. How coincidental....

     

  •  My selection for this weekend (3+ / 0-)

    John Boehner's theme song:

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11. Rush Holt for Senate!

    by interstate73 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:56:26 PM PDT

  •  Credit to Gov Christie (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychicpanda, betelgeux

    New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has agreed to give chronically ill children easier access to medical marijuana.

    He has conditionally vetoed the bill for going too far, but he has agreed to expand the use of medical marijuana for chronically ill children, which I imagine the legislature will easily pass. For those who have not been following, this follows the emotional confrontation between him and a father of a child with a chronic illness begging him 'not to let my child die'. I personally think that Christie deserves huge credit for this.

    •  Definitely huge credit. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, sapelcovits

      Christie decided to let a dying, suffering child have a medicinal plant. Hosannahs must be sung. Big-hearted fella.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:34:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Better than what Obama is doing. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        psychicpanda

        And goes without saying that just about every other republican governor would veto the bill without a second thought.

        •  DOJ has been fairly tame on Marijuana this year (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades
        •  that's like saying (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, KingofSpades, gabjoh, redrelic17

          let's promote Doritos as a health food because it's not as bad for you as KFC.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:12:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Your Reasoning. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

          It's exactly how right-wing Republicans like Christie get made to look like moderates in the eyes of gullible Democrats.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 01:07:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Forgot to add. (5+ / 0-)

            Pat McCrory was the most moderate governor of Charlotte, who run a lovely moderate campaign, and then he became a super moderate governor of North Carolina. And now look at how his moderate agenda has made North Carolina a moderate model for a moderate nation!

            Oh, wait. That's all a huge lie. McCrory more or less appointed Art Pope governor, as if we had not already gotten the message about who was in charge.

            Republican moderation is invented to cater to those voters who scream that they only vote for moderates! But these voters absolutely cannot tell you what a moderate is when you ask them.

            Anyone who has canvassed more than 5 houses will tell you about this tedious species of voter.

            http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

            by redrelic17 on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 01:20:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  No, my reasoning is as follows: (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            1) Chris Christie supported the correct policy.
            2) He had significant political reasons not to.
            3) He deserves credit.

            All you've done is wrongly conflate my argument with one about Chris Christie being a moderate, and then straw man that position. Don't get me wrong - Christie is a conservative. So is Jan Brewer, but she still deserved credit for forcing her legislature to expand Medicaid.

            As for your stuff on McCrory below, that's irrelevant, because it challenges a straw man, and not what I was actually saying, which is that correct policies in the face of political challenges deserve credit.

            •  he deserves some degree of credit, sure (0+ / 0-)

              "huge" credit? sorry, but with that kind of wording you'll forgive people if they think it sounds uncomfortably close to the "zomg Christie is so moderate!" narrative

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Sun Aug 18, 2013 at 06:24:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's an ammendment I can live with. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But credit for taking a right policy and/or skilled executive action has nothing to do with a candidate's overall political philosophy. People who think it sounds uncomfortably close to a Christie-moderate narrative are just wrongly conflating different issues, so I guess they'll just have to be more careful as to what point is actually being made in the future.

                But for the record, I do and still agree with what has been posted - that Christie is a conservative and not a moderate.

                •  well, Christie's positions don't exist in a vacuum (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Possible Liberal

                  I think it's a bit disingenuous to say that just because he's right on this issue we can't overlook how wrong he is on other issues. we can't - never. pretty much any intellectually honest appraisal of Christie's good positions will have to own his bad ones as well, for as long as he holds those stances.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Sun Aug 18, 2013 at 07:18:47 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Kerrey to join Kerry at State? (4+ / 0-)

    Former NE senator and governor Bob Kerrey says he is in talks to join the State Department. John Kerry and he are friends, former Senate colleagues and Vietnam veterans.

    No details on what the post is. Kerry, of course, ran again for Senate from NE last year and lost to Deb Fischer.

    link.

  •  About those Clinton Biopics on NBC and CNN... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, JDJase

    I can't imagine Hillary is too impressed with them either given she has no control over what they contain.  Presidential campaigns want iron grip control over framing/messaging of their candidate.  

    I guess maybe she figures her life is an open book anyways, and any movie couldn't possibly hurt her at this point because it couldn't sling the crazy RW lies and CT's that the RW believes is fact.  

    If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 01:52:26 PM PDT

  •  NJ-Gov: WHOA!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, Gygaxian

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:11:11 PM PDT

    •  Thankfully Weigel mentions (0+ / 0-)

      that polling shows Dems likely to keep the legislature.  This is why it's important that we do.  Without it, we get vouchers and school integration reverses.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:25:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's contradictory is (0+ / 0-)

      that those unions are by and large endorsing Democrats in legislative and local races.  It's not that they're his allies, they're just betting on winners and rewarding loyalty.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:26:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Building Trades unions are generally more (0+ / 0-)

      conservative than other unions. They probably weren't that hard for him to get.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:32:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think they even donated to him. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        They're just doing so to endorse the status quo.  It's why I'm dubious about certain labor endorsements.  Labor unions need to up concern for collective bargaining as a whole on their priorities.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:38:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mitch Daniels got several union endorsements (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, James Allen, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

          in his 2008 reelection. They were paid back for their support by passage of a right to work law in 2012.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:00:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Is the audio made available? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

      Could Buono put it in an ad or two and make the case that Christie plays the moderate, but when he's behind closed doors in front of the RNC he brags about destroying unions.  

      Buono should try and make this the 47% Tape from Romney.  Romney thought he was in front of a friendly Repub audience and thus spoke frankly, but it was secretly recorded - Christie thought he was in front of a friendly Repub audience and spoke his true feelings/throughts, but it was secretly recorded.  

      Buono needs to go big and hard with this.  Any money she has should be put behind a major ad buy on this.  Use the Romney footage and this (hopefully the audio was made available) to tie Romney to Christie as both snakes who pretend to be moderates until infront of what they think is a Repub only audience.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 03:45:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A guy by the name of James Hohmann... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...is believed to have possession of the audio tape in question. It's unclear whether or not Hohmann would be willing to release the tape to Buono, although Buono should make an attempt to obtain the tape (or a copy of it) from Hohmann.

        My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:09:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Did he really bust the unions, though? (0+ / 0-)

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:11:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bjssp

        It's not Wisconsin; they still have collective bargaining rights.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 01:52:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, I know, and that's why (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I get annoyed when I see people throwing around the terms like that.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 09:54:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nebraska: proposed legislation for IRV (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    Apparently there may be some proposed legislation hovering around the Nebraska Legislature to institute "ranked choice voting" in partisan primaries (citing Todd Akin's win with 36% and Deb Fischer's win with 41%).

    http://journalstar.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:33:59 PM PDT

  •  IL-Sen 2016: Kirk says he plans on running again (6+ / 0-)

    though obviously that change.

    http://capitolfax.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:52:27 PM PDT

  •  A more detailed look at the KY Senate maps (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Darth Jeff, James Allen

    Jefferson County: http://www.scribd.com/...

    Fayette County: http://www.scribd.com/...

    Northern Kentucky: http://www.scribd.com/...

    A quick look shows me that the GOP added some blood red Jefferson County precincts into SD-14, along with the addition of even redder Casey County, makes Sen. Jimmy Higdon (R-Lebanon) a big winner. The four Dem incumbents in Louisville look fine. Sen. Julie Denton (R-Louisville) got a safe district. Republicans appeared to have used the remaining safe GOP precincts to round out other districts.

    In Lexington, they really pulled out all the stops for Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr (R-Lexington), who has been a frequent Democratic target. They give her the old SD-22 precincts on either side of the end of Nicholasville Road. Sen. R.J. Palmer picks up a mix of new precincts in the northern and eastern part of the county. On the good side, he gains some precincts on the west side of Newtown Pike, but they do not turn out so well in off years. The edges of the county are strongly Republican. Then some precincts on the eastern end of Man O'War Blvd. are competitive. Sen. Jared Carpenter (R-Richmond) also picks up some good precincts in the southeastern part of the county, but they are not nearly as good as Lincoln County, which he lost. And Kathy Stein (D-Lexington) gets virtually every strong Democratic precinct that there is in Fayette County. It is worth noting that this district was home to former Sen. Ernesto Scorcone (D-Lexington, now a Judge), who was the first openly gay member of the Legislature. Northern Kentucky had no surprises. If I was drawing the map, I would have had Campbell take in its population need by crossing into Kenton County, but then Sen. Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown) would not be so happy.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:25:48 PM PDT

    •  So they're not going after Perry Clark after all? (0+ / 0-)

      SD-8 needs to be top target for Dems, followed by SD-2, SD-32, and an outside shot at SD-32.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:34:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  *outside shot at SD-30 (0+ / 0-)

        Perhaps (and this is a big perhaps) Dan Mongiardo should try.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 04:35:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Brandon Smith is too popular. (0+ / 0-)

          He is here for a long time.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:27:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  That district seems made for him. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Seems like a reasonable list of targets, but the GOP will go after SD-10 and SD-28. Sen. Bob Leeper (I-Paducah) could retire. I could also see the GOP targeting Sen. Jerry Rhoads (R-Madisonville) if they can get Rep. Ben Waide (R-Madisonville) to challenge him, since he is paired with Rep. Myron Dossett (R-Pembroke). Add to that Madisonville has moved hard to the right recently. The addition of heavily Republican Butler County could contribute to that decision.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:00:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'll have the data shortly once I've sketched it (0+ / 0-)

      for 2010sen, 2011downballot, and 2012pres.

    •  Here we go (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, lordpet8, ChadmanFL, jncca

       photo KYSenateProposalData_zps0248383b.pngspreadsheet available to download here

      Looking at the 2012 districts, the r-squared value between Obama's % and the senate Dem was just .22 while the value between the 2011 average (or Conway '10) and the senate Dem was .54. Clearly there's a lot of variation that the average doesn't explain, but it's a much better baseline and the only one worth taking into account that can be uniformly applied to all districts.

      Under that metric, our reddest district and the only one more Republican than the statewide percentage is the 10th while the bluest Republican held one is the 14th followed by the 8th and 20th. Every remaining one was more Republican than the state. Certainly though, incumbency and candidates matter a lot here so the statewide numbers only tell about half the picture.

      We need to gain 5 districts for a tie and 6 for control (Lt Gov doesn't break ties as far as I can tell).

      Also someone really ought to sue once the whole package is passed on VRA grounds over Jefferson County. You can definitely get two districts there that are about 50% black rather than one nearly 60% and the other at just 1/3rd

      •  The real lawsuit could be SD-04 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Stephen Wolf, skibum59

        It exceeds the maximum deviance of population. And maps are not linked this time, so it is a free shot in federal court to throw out the Senate map. And getting two black majority districts is easier said than done. There is a big concentration of black voters in the West End. The other big group is in a different part of town in the Newburgh area.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 07:05:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  TN-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal, MichaelNY

    rumors. Buzz. Wish there was more.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:02:17 PM PDT

    •  If Sen. Alexander is primaried... (5+ / 0-)

      And Rep. Cooper runs, this seat could be competitive -- maybe. Otherwise, it's just Republicans eating their own again.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:47:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah I think I'd prefer Lamar!. nt (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:56:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd imagine after voting for HCR (5+ / 0-)

        and, while being too conservative for his district, still being fairly associated with national Democratic policies, he's unelectable statewide.

        I'd much rather them not primary Alexander. While he didn't vote for Kagan, he voted to confirm Sotomayor.

        •  I think it depends on how crazy... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, ChadmanFL, itskevin, MichaelNY

          The Republican nominee is. Then-Rep. Joe Donnelly voted for Obamacare, too. I think it's only a decisive issue among the shrieking partisans in the Republican Party, and in a state like Tennessee that has a strong tradition of at least somewhat moderate Republicanism, I refuse to believe that's a majority of the likely electorate unless I see a polling consensus otherwise.

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:33:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And McCaskill did as Senator (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

            And blew out Akin.  If republicans nominate someone nutty/gaffe prone enough they can manage to lose some fairly republican leaning states.  Though given how far-right Tennessee has shifted since the "scary black guy" got elected President I'm not sure even an Akin/Mourdock type could lose to a top-tier Dem in that state.

            Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

            by ChadmanFL on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 12:17:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's an interesting question (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

              I wouldn't regard it as a top-tier opportunity, but it would be kinda cool to both get Rep. Cooper out of his Safe Dem seat and force the GOP to sweat a little over a seat that really should be a slam-dunk hold for them.

              Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 12:42:30 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Who would the Republicans run in TN? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                A clown like Hank Williams, Jr., who has never run before and would certainly say some stupid shit, is a much bigger problem for them than some run of the mill state legislator.

                I should also note that Cooper, in this situation, will be given the freedom to Manchinize the race if he wants to. The DSCC quite literally won't give a crap what he says as long as he wins.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 07:28:18 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Has TN really moved that much further to the right (0+ / 0-)

              since, oh, 2000? At the state level, perhaps, but as recently as 2006, Harold Ford, Jr. came close to winning.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 07:29:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  we can't really tell to an extent (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca, skibum59, Possible Liberal

                because the bottom fell out with rural whites in 2010, but by 2012 Republicans had gerrymandered everything, so we can't even try to run a traditional Dem campaign there and be competitive below statewide, and we haven't had a high profile statewide race there since 2006 to be able to judge. Part of that is because we haven't had great candidates, and part of that is because the people who would be good candidates don't think they can win.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 11:20:37 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The gerrymandering wouldn't (0+ / 0-)

                  change the potential for support for a Democrat all that much statewide, would it? I mean, as you allude, it's definitely cut us off at the knees when it comes to candidate recruitment. Or was it something else besides that?

                  I'd also say the distinction needs to be made between in-state and national candidates. Cooper might not have an easy time, but he'd have an easier time than a lot of national Democrats would.

                  And what about Sarah Kyle, under most possible scenarios, including the most likely, which is Lamar Alexander running again? Money can't be transferred, I am pretty sure, but she's at least a somewhat credible candidate.

                  "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                  by bjssp on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 11:45:09 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  the gerrymandering got rid of the old districts (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    jncca, skibum59

                    where we could've seen if a blue dog could still win in an old blue dog district, even if we didn't have statewide example.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 12:27:59 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  But that doesn't really change Tennessee's (0+ / 0-)

                      ability to elect a Democrat. After all, a vote in one part of the state is as good as another when it's a statewide race. It has an effect on candidate recruitment and so on, but there are always both positive and negative effects.

                      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                      by bjssp on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 09:56:21 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  yes it does (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Possible Liberal, MichaelNY

                        because it hurts our bench, but I was saying that it hurt specifically our ability to detect if we could still compete, not necessarily our ability to compete itself.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 10:44:54 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  But that's not the same problem (0+ / 0-)

                          as the one(s) caused by gerrymandering, at least not right away. To take an example, think of Wisconsin. I don't think the state has shifted against us, but we find it difficult to compete there because of gerrymandering. Yet Baldwin and Obama were able to win. Over time, it may be more difficult to get candidates, but that's a long-term issue, not a short-term one, and it's most likely a sign the terrain has shifted.

                          I understand how the Blue Dog districts were a good test case, but I don't think there's any reason to think something would change so dramatically if the maps were the same or redrawn in some way to have similar PVIs.

                          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                          by bjssp on Sun Aug 18, 2013 at 08:11:14 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

          •  Tennessee is way more difficult for Democrats (6+ / 0-)

            than either of Indiana or Missouri. And unlike its neighbor to the north where a lot of Obama's poor performance is attributable to coal, Tennessee has practically none of it in relative comparison.

  •  Funny or Die: SNL Presidents Reunion (0+ / 0-)

    This is from a few years back, but its funny seeing all the old actors come back for their roles (though it's a shame Phil Hartman who did Reagan on SNL passed away)

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

    by lordpet8 on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:13:55 PM PDT

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this Weekend (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    2nd try on Redistricting- Special session starts on Monday. Beth Musgrave from the Herald-Leader calls this the kinder, gentler plans compared to the past. Not much opposition on either side so far. Bill Bryant says they want to stay under the radar given the special session in the minimum 5 days at a cost of $300k, and do not want to cost more. Filing opens on November 6 and courts have said that they won't allow the old districts to be used in 2014. A federal court has set next Friday as a deadline to draw the districts- finish them Friday or show up in court Monday. Fayette County is not happy they did not get one of the new districts.

    Bluegrass Pipeline- Very unpopular natural gas liquids pipeline from Pennsylvania to the Gulf. Franklin County has passed a moratorium. It is not popular in any of the 14 counties, and many have passed resolutions against it. AG Jack Conway says they may not have eminent domain powers. This was not on the call for the special session, but may be big at the regular session.

    New Science Standards- These will include standards on climate change and evolution. This must pass the joint Education Committee. Expect a long process here. There were comments against in the public hearings so far.

    Rand Paul- My favorite quote from Farrell Wellman "He was back in the state a while this week". He spoke in Louisville. He wants to defund Obamacare, but not shut down the federal government, but he won't vote for the CR. He talked about the hold nose remark and joked about it. He spent time in NYC, which was a prelude to a run for President.

    Senate Race- Louisville Tea Party leader Marilyn Parker endorses Mitch. Brief discussion of ALG and GOP trend in federal races in the state. Big thing to watch is the State Fair Ham Breakfast. ALG will be there as Secretary of State.

    Other- Bill Bryant interviewed Auditor Adam Edelen about his recent audit and said he sounded clearly like a candidate for Governor in 2015. Revenue forecast shows a slight uptick, with declines in gas tax and coal severance, but an increase in corporate tax revenues. However, any increases will go to pensions. A committee next week will hold a hearing on medical marijuana.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:26:43 PM PDT

  •  Australian Federal Election (0+ / 0-)

    Terrible week of polling for Labor. If the election was (hypothetically) held tomorrow the Coalition have a 99% chance of outright victory. A Coalition win by 82 seats to 65 for Labor is now the most likely outcome.

  •  NC-GOV: Roy Cooper Testing Waters for 2016 (14+ / 0-)

    http://projects.newsobserver.com/...

    Would likely be strongest candidate.

    Hopefully either Janet Cowell or Anthony Foxx runs against Burr.

    23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

    by liberal intellectual on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 06:33:02 PM PDT

    •  That would be great (8+ / 0-)

      Roy Cooper would be our strongest candidate for governor.  But  despite his big wins in the past, it will not be a cakewalk for him.  McCrory could recover like Kasich and Walker have - which is why Cooper will certainly wait for two years, at least, before making a decision.

      •  Or.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He can end up just like Corbett, Scott, and Snyder. Where his numbers will just be stuck in the tank.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 11:03:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends if he continues to pass controversial (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          stuff in the second half of his term.  If he stays clear of controversy, he should recover like Kasich.  If not, he becomes Snyder.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 01:57:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not necessarily... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

            Rick Scott hasn't pursued nearly as controversial an agenda as Scott Walker yet his numbers are terrible in a more conservative state.

            Bev Perdue didn't do anything controversial at all yet her numbers never really recovered when looking at polling as a whole. There's no reason to believe that McCrory's image will improve if he just keeps his head down as there's also no reason to believe the General Assembly won't keep passing this sort of shit for the next three years.

            •  Rick Scott (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, MichaelNY, skibum59

              was never popular though.  The wave carried him.  Same with Perdue.  McCrory  outperformed Generic R in his state, and Kasich wasn't super-disliked, he just ran against a pretty popular incumbent.

              The Legislature can get through all the archconservative stuff they want right now in these next two years and spend the next two doing more mundane budget-related stuff.  That way McCrory wins again in 2016.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:13:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You seem to be drawing a conclusion that isn't (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BKGyptian89, IntoGov

                supported in any systematic way by the facts. Governors who are toxic in the first two years of their term don't see their numbers improve by default if they don't do anything further offensive. There's no reason to think McCrory will just recover if all they do in 2015 and 2016 is pass a 'mundane budget' which by the way polls at about -20 against right now and is going to be essentially their same budget 2 years from now. It would be criminal incompetence for his Democratic opponent not to be able to campaign in 2016 being like "hey, remember all this hugely unpopular shit the incumbent did two years ago and never reversed nor made up for?"

                I would imagine if you polled on Kasich's budget there was not monolithic opposition at the time it passed and with McCrory that's just one part of the GOP's legislative accomplishments that are deeply underwater. The only thing Kasich did that was universally panned was SB5 and voters there had the ability to repeal that electorally.

                •  Governors (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  skibum59

                  often dip during the legislative session, especially during a time controversial legislation is passing, and then rise back up.  We've seen this before; David Nir even mentioned it in a recent digest.

                  It would be criminal incompetence for his Democratic opponent not to be able to campaign in 2016 being like "hey, remember all this hugely unpopular shit the incumbent did two years ago and never reversed nor made up for?"
                  I agree, but voters have short memories.  I really don't see why McCrory can't recover; voters have three years to forget.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 04:56:54 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting tidbit about NC Governors (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      No North Carolina governor has ever lost re-election, since governors were awarded the opportunity to win a second consecutive term in 1980.  If McCrory lost, that would be a first.

      However, Governors Hunt and Sanford both lost U.S. Senate races after they had been governor.  Governor Easley lost a U.S. Senate race before he was elected governor.

    •  My dream NC ticket for '16 (0+ / 0-)

      Gov: Cooper
      LtGov: Ross
      US Senate: Cowell
      AG: Martin
      Tres: Stein or somebody with a business background.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 11:22:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-GOV: More details in Star Scientific scandal (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, DCCyclone, askew, jncca, itskevin

    The governor's wife, Maureen, twice bought stock in the company while she and her husband were promoting it.

    But she says she didnt tell him about the purchase.

    A person familiar with the stock purchase said government prosecutors have been investigating the McDonnell family’s ownership of Star Scientific stock to determine whether they took any official acts to help the company’s prestige.

    Evidence that the couple took official acts to indirectly help their own financial stake in a single company would likely increase their legal jeopardy in a potential criminal case.

    link.

  •  VA-GOV: Ken Cuccinelli vs. Thomas Jefferson (9+ / 0-)

    Did anyone post this in an earlier thread?

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    Ken Cuccinelli is accusing Virginia's 2nd Governor of being a bigot.  T-Jeff did not support school vouchers for religious institutions and he enshrined that in the Virginia Constitution.  Cooch now wants to amend the constitution to allow such support for, specifically, Catholic schools.

  •  Voter Fraud update (Colorado) (19+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailycamera.com/...

    Last month, Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler gave Boulder County District Attorney Stan Garnett a list of 17 names, all suspected of voting in the November election despite being non-citizens.

    Those names were among 155 people identified statewide as possible illegal voters.

    But an investigation by Garnett's office found that all 17 people were citizens and were able to easily verify their status, the district attorney said Wednesday.

    Well that was time and money well spent.

    A SSP guy in a DKE world.

    by Minnesota Mike on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:25:50 PM PDT

  •  Arkansas State Senator and Democrat (6+ / 0-)

    aul Bookout spends campaign money on personal things:
    $8000 - home entertainment system
    $5000 - women's clothing

    Other money was spent on liquor stores, shoe stores, an apartment complex, a hotel, somebody named Emily Smith (uhhh...), and of course, multiple payments went to himself.

    Meanwhile, 2012 AR-01 candidate Scott Ellington (Craighead County prosecutor) is reviewing state laws and may have some more to say on Bookout next week.

    This is now the third ethics scandal to hit the Arkansas Democratic Party, following the arrest of our State Treasurer Martha Shoffner a few weeks ago. Note that Shoffner's case is eerily similar to Bookout's. Shoffner spent campaign money on an apartment; Bookout spend it on personal extravagances.

    By the way, this was our top candidate for AR-01. Not anymore, certainly.

    http://talkbusiness.net/...

  •  How hopeful is Arizona looking for us (0+ / 0-)

    In regards to to statewide and legislative races?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 11:39:47 PM PDT

  •  wwmiv or other San Antonians... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    please tell me this woman's political career is over: http://www.towleroad.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 07:54:11 AM PDT

  •  PA-Gov: Interesting look at Dems and fracking: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 10:57:16 AM PDT

    •  I'm not completely against fracking... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      ...however, I'd like to see VERY strict regulations on fracking, including:

      1) Requiring public hearings before a fracking operation could be approved

      2) Requiring that land owners would have the right to receive payment for sale or lease of land to fracking operators

      3) Making sure that the public has the right to know what chemicals are used by fracking operations

      4) Requiring that risk of earthquakes and various other types of environmental damage be considered before a fracking permit is either approved or rejected

      In short, I'd like to see even stricter regulations on fracking than what Illinois passed earlier this year, without completely outlawing the practice.

      A moratorium on fracking should only be implemented in order to give a state legislature time in order to consider legislation to regulate the practice.

      My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 03:10:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If a state party leaks database access to the GOP (0+ / 0-)

    Does that constitute grounds for disciplining the party official who leaked it? Specifically, giving away access for a database that tracks voters, manages volunteers (or helps to do so), plans walking routes for campaigns, and helps to set up phonebanks to a Republican running in a nonpartisan primary?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 01:47:00 PM PDT

  •  How Steve Lonegan will win (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, kurykh, skibum59, askew
    Lonegan strategist Rick Shaftan, though, said that he believes the Booker numbers show an 'artificial inflation" for the nominee that will somehow evaporate between now and the October 16 vote, and that the head-to-head numbers between losing candidate Rep. Rush Holt and Lonegan are better predictors. Holt came in a distant third to Booker in the primary.
    “Barack Obama is singularly more responsible for New Jersey’s problems than anybody else, and his good friend Cory Booker is going to go to Washington and do more of the same,” Lonegan said. “New Jersey cannot afford a senator who’s going to be a puppet of the president and a rubber stamp for the Obama agenda.”
    http://www.politico.com/...

    This should be fun.  I like how even Politico adds the "somehow" into the first quote.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:15:12 PM PDT

    •  It's very delusional. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, askew

      NJ went for Obama by a stronger margin in 2012 than 2008.  An anti-Obama message will backfire.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:21:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wasn't Obama's margin in NJ (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        influenced by Sandy, since a lot of the heavily Republican areas were hit hardest? Not that he would have come close to losing it, of course, but that it turned his margin of victory into something bigger than it would have otherwise been.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 09:59:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd say so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I haven't seen the numbers, but Ocean County and Cape May were GOP bases hit hard.  I guess it reduced GOP turnout somewhat more than Dem turnout because coastal Atlantic and Monmouth County are Dem-leaning and they were hit.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 18, 2013 at 10:58:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not if you're Steve Lonegan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        His best shot is to go hard anti-Obama, cause nothing else is gonna work for him.

        He was the mayor of the town next to me growing up, and I don't think people realize just how utterly conservative he truly is, even before Tea Partying was cool. He's at least as far right as Steve King on immigration, and sure as heck not moderate on anything else.

        On the plus side, he will be a boon for the DSCC in terms of quotes for fundraising emails. An absolute boon.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Sun Aug 18, 2013 at 02:18:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This passage is like Rove's 2012 predictions: (5+ / 0-)
      Shaftan said he believes they’ll be able to make the Lonegan campaign into a sleeper national race in the model of Scott Brown’s 2010 surprise special election win in Massachusetts, and that means turning Obama into a boogeyman co-star of all their attacks on Booker.

      “There’s people who support Obama and there’s people who don’t support Obama,” Shaftan said. “The people who support Obama are Booker’s base, and we’re not going to get them. The people who are opposed to Obama are the ones we’re going to go after, and we think those voters are more motivated than the ones who support Obama.”

      And Booker raised almost 40x more than you.

      His delusion might have grounds if this were 1970's-80's NJ when this state didn't vote Dem for President once (heck, my state was even narrowly lost by Kennedy).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:32:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  To add to that (0+ / 0-)

        we haven't voted a Republican to the Senate since 1972 and he could have held on in '78 if he weren't defeated in the primary by an anti-tax activist.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:33:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  NJ (5+ / 0-)

        It might make sense if he were running in Ohio, where Obama won by just 3 and a turnout differential could conceivably get him over the hump despite his cash disadvantage. The math just doesn't work in a state Obama won by 18.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:43:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  New Jersey (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        actually did vote for JFK, barely (50-49).  He and LBJ were the only Democrats between FDR and Clinton to win it for President.

        If this were the 1940s-80s era when the state usually did vote Republican, or at least was very competitive, in national elections then one would think that a stronger or more electable Republican candidate would have run for Senate.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 03:17:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You're right, I flipped it by accident. (0+ / 0-)

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 03:22:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I was watching a clip of Election night 92 (8+ / 0-)

        recently, and it was so weird to hear the anchor talk about how devastating it was for President Bush that Clinton won....New Jersey and Michigan.

        •  In retrospect (8+ / 0-)

          that's as strange as reading the 1989-90 edition of the "Almanac of American Politics", which stated that "rural Texas remains the key to winning the Presidency."

          That conclusion was based around the fact that no Democrat until then had been elected President without winning Texas, and that the rural vote there was large enough to swing the state and previously more likely to vote Democratic than the urban and suburban counties.  It was rendered inoperative in 1992, and has become even more so since; Dems have won 4 presidential elections without Texas, and if we do make it competitive in national elections it will mostly be with the urban/suburban vote.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 03:55:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  To be fair (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Spending time unskewing polls might be more productive for him than actually campaigning, since he's going to lose either way. At least he's engaging in some form of intellectual exercise.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 03:51:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Australian Federal Election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, SaoMagnifico

    Good news and bad news from the latest Galaxy poll. First the bad news, the Coalition leads Labor 52-48 which is up from a 51-49 Coalition lead the last time.

    The good news is that there is no way a Liberal wave is sweeping into Western Sydney (David Bradbury in Lindsay is still in big trouble on these numbers though) on these numbers unless there is a massive swing against Labor in NSW like what happened in Queensland in 2010 that's being compensated by Labor's vote holding up in the rest of the country.

    We won't have the crosstabs until tomorrow most likely so I can't drill down into the state specific numbers right now.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 02:40:39 PM PDT

  •  Drew this map of Arizona to see what might (3+ / 0-)

    be possible under a Democratic gerrymander:
     photo AZDem6-3-1overview_zps1d4a017c.png
     photo AZDem6-3-1Phoenix_zps969b015c.png
     photo AZDem6-3-1Data_zps985cfcbb.png

    Now before you freak out about making the 3rd R+1 and the 7th D+4, they would have been about D+5 and D+10 last year and trending more so. Compared to the actual districts under the 2010 average, the 1st gets 3.6% better, the 2nd 3.3% better, the 3rd 6.2% worse, the 6th is 5.5% better but we'd now face Dan Quayle who only won by 10 in his old, 3.3% more GOP district in 2010 of all years, and the 9th 1.9% better though we'd be facing Schweikert instead.

    Net outcome, Kirkpatrick wins by nearly double digits, Barber by over 5, Sinema by about the same but has a much easier time holding on after 2012, and Quayle's seat is Lean R at worst given how much of a doofus he is and how this district mirrors the state at large. Grijalva, though he would have lost in 2010, would have cruised last year and every other cycle as this district would have trended and continued to trend sharply Democratic and another 2010 repeat is highly unlikely. All 5 of the Obama districts would have been D+ in 2012 with two being D+5 or more.

    I tried vote sinking the 6th to shore up the 1st, 2nd, and 9th but it really doesn't help out all that much since a lot of the bluer areas can't go to any Democratic district other than the 7th which doesn't need it and are heavily white anyway.

  •  A nonpartisan poll of the Arkansas races (5+ / 0-)

    will be out the first week in September.

  •  Sen. Begich sends halibut to Domino's: (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.themudflats.net/...

    I saw that Domino's commercial and also thought: "What's wrong with halibut?  It's tasty and almost as good as sole."

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 17, 2013 at 05:27:58 PM PDT

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