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8:27 AM PT (jeffmd): MI-St. Sen: We don't usually cover state legislative votes, but the passage of Medicaid expansion through a Republican-controlled chamber is worth examining, especially once equipped with our Pres-by-LD dataset. The 8 Republicans who joined Democrats in passing the bill can be broken down into two main groups: those retiring and therefore not subject to political pressures, and those in vulnerable districts particularly subject to political pressures.

Randy Richardville and Roger Kahn are both term-limited in 2014 and were therefore free to vote their conscience. The same applies to Howard Walker, who is eligible for re-election but has already announced his retirement.

In contrast, Tory Rocca (likely running for re-election in SD-10), Jim Marleau (SD-12), and Mike Kowall (SD-15) would all be running for re-election in competitive Metro Detroit districts. Similarly, Goeff Hansen (SD-34) and Tom Casperson (SD-38), who cast the deciding vote, would also be running for re-election in swing territory. Casperson's Upper Peninsula-based SD-38, in particular, is known to be ancestrally Democratic. All five districts voted for Debbie Stabenow; Hansen's SD-34 voted 53-46 for Obama and the other four all gave Obama between 47 and 49 percent.

8:31 AM PT: Special Elections: Even though Obama won Maine's SD-19 by 16 points, Johnny Longtorso said this one might be close, and it was. Democrats narrowly hung on to the seat, with businesswoman Eloise Vitelli defeating Republican ex-state Sen. Paula Benoit by a 49.6 to 46.6 margin, while Green Daniel Stromgren took 3.8 percent.

Meanwhile, attorney Marlon Kimpson defeated former Charleston City Councilman Maurice Washington by better than 2-to-1 in the Democratic runoff in South Carolina's SD-42. Kimpson will be a lock in the October 1 general election.

8:49 AM PT: NY-St. Sen: This is potentially very big news. New York City Councilman Oliver Koppell, who also once briefly served as state attorney general, says he isn't ruling out a primary challenge to state Sen. Jeff Klein, the renegade Democrat who leads the breakaway faction that handed control of the Senate to the GOP this year, even though Democrats won a majority of seats in the chamber last November. Klein would be hard to beat, but Koppell has the profile (and liberal bona fides) to pull it off, especially if labor were to get behind him.

Koppell is term-limited, so next year, he'll be out of office and perhaps looking for something to do. He's also reportedly met with the state-level DSCC about a potential bid. However, Koppell is 72 years old and cautions that "at the moment I have no plans" to run. But if he does make a go of it, this could be one of the most exciting legislative primaries for progressives in the nation.

9:11 AM PT (jeffmd): MI-St. Sen. Our classification of Senate Republicans voting on Medicaid expansion doesn't apply completely, though: there are several Republicans in similarly competitive districts who were principled or politically tone-deaf (depending on your point of view) and voted 'No' anyway. (Alternatively, they recognized the political risks and chose to roll the dice.)

Notably, Patrick Colbeck, who is quoted extensively in the Free Press article in his opposition, would likely be running in 49.7-49.6 Obama SD-07; Dave Hildenbrand, in the Grand Rapids-based SD-29 faces an electorate that voted 53-46 for Obama.

9:23 AM PT: Site News: Going back to the Swing State Project days, Daily Kos Elections has always been a policy-free zone. Sure, we're always up for discussing the electoral impacts of various policy choices (and the votes that lawmakers take on them), but because of our laser focus on elections, we've eschewed straight-out debates of policy issues on the merits. But if you'd like to geek out on carbon taxes, education reform, or the European Central Bank, you can now visit the weekly DKE Policy open thread, hosted by Stephen Wolf. You can also bookmark and/or follow the DKE Policy group so that you can see whenever a new thread is posted. Have at it, wonks!

10:19 AM PT: Mobile, AL: In a somewhat surprising development, businessman Sandy Stimpson defeated two-term Mayor Sam Jones, Mobile's first African-American mayor, by a 53-47 margin on Tuesday night. Stimpson is white and ran on what he called a "One Mobile" platform, though reports indicate that turnout was relatively low in predominantly black precincts and high in heavily white areas, which likely aided him. Stimpson also widely outraised the incumbent, so the final result is not entirely shocking, even though Mobile is a majority-black city.

11:14 AM PT: FL-18: Even though freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy ought to be a top GOP target, yet another prominent Republican is saying no to the race, state Rep. Gayle Harrell. However, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, who unsuccessfully ran in the neighboring 22nd District last year, is reportedly eyeing a bid. Since he'd likely be an NRCC favorite if he got in, perhaps Harrell is pre-emptively deferring. Three Republicans are already running: ex-state Rep. Carl Domino, Juno Beach Councilwoman Ellen Andel, and 2006 Connecticut GOP Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger.

12:10 PM PT: NYC Mayor: Hel-lo! With less than two weeks to go until the Democratic primary for mayor, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio is just crushing it in Quinnipiac's newest poll. De Blasio now takes 36 percent, versus 21 for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and 20 for former Comptroller Bill Thompson. In mid-August, when de Blasio first moved into the lead, he stood at 30, with Quinn at 24 and Thompson at 22. The fact that de Blasio keeps surging upward even as attacks against him have multiplied is a very positive sign for his campaign.

And just as notable is how close he's getting to 40 percent, the magic number needed to avoid a runoff. Even if there is a second round, though, de Blasio would fare very well, according to Quinnipiac: He'd beat Quinn 59-30 and Thompson 52-36. Quinn's fade, incidentally, has been pretty remarkable. In an unlikely runoff with Thompson, she'd also get crushed, 57-33. And as Taniel points out, almost half of her supporters acknowledge there's a "good chance" they might wind up voting for someone else, versus just a little over a quarter of de Blasio and Thompson voters who say the same thing.

Of course, in the event of a runoff, the anti-de Blasio forces in the business community and elsewhere will rally together much more forcefully than they have to date. But if his momentum continues, they may have already missed their only opportunity to thwart him.

1:31 PM PT: St. Petersburg, FL: It looks like Democrats may have a good shot at picking up the mayor's office in Florida's fourth-largest city, St. Petersburg, this fall, for the first time since 1975. In an ostensibly non-partisan primary on Tuesday night, Republican incumbent Bill Foster only narrowly edged former state Rep. Rick Kriseman, 41 to 39. While the race isn't necessarily being fought on strict partisan grounds, the third-place finisher, former City Councilor Kathleen Ford, is also a Democrat and ran an anti-establishment campaign; her voters are more likely to wind up with Kriseman than Foster in November.

1:52 PM PT: TN-Sen: Sen. Lamar Alexander is, Mitch McConnell-style, rolling out some internal polling to argue that, despite tea partier anger, he doesn't face a major threat in next year's Republican primary. Lamar! leads his recently announced challenger, state Rep. Joe Carr, by a 64-22 margin, according to North Star Opinion Research. But like McConnell's pollster, Voter/Consumer Research, North Star had some major misses last year, particularly one survey of MI-09 which showed Dem Rep. Sandy Levin with just a 44-42 lead over his Some Dude Republican opponent. Levin won by 28.

1:58 PM PT: AL-01: The conservative outside group GOPAC is going on the air with a small $30,000 buy on behalf of state Rep. Chad Fincher in the special election to replace ex-Rep. Jo Bonner. The spot says that Fincher "defeated the liberals and the teachers union," a frequent bugbear in Alabama Republican politics.

2:17 PM PT: ME-Sen: Unsurprisingly, even if Republican Sen. Susan Collins drew a top-tier opponent next year, she'd still be in dominant shape, according to PPP. Collins leads Dem Rep. Chellie Pingree 57-34, author (and Democrat) Stephen King 54-31, and independent attorney Eliot Cutler (who is running for governor) 53-33. If Collins were to retire, though—and note, she still hasn't uttered the magic words "I'm running for re-election"—the situation would almost immediately reverse itself. In a hypothetical matchup, Pingree would defeat Republican Bruce Poliquin 47-33, turning Maine into the number one Democratic pickup opportunity of the cycle.

Sadly, it seems that Collins isn't going anywhere, except under her own free will. In a now-moot primary test, Collins would blast Poliquin, a former state treasurer, 64-24. But Poliquin was always unlikely to challenge Collins, and now he definitely won't, since he just announced a House bid. Late though it is, perhaps Collins will still bail, much like Olympia Snowe did last year. Or maybe President Obama will nominate her to run the Department of Homeland Security. But unless and until Collins departs the scene, there's really not much to see here.

2:30 PM PT: SD Mayor: Several potential candidates in the upcoming special election to replace Bob Filner as mayor of San Diego have already said they won't run, while a few others say they're considering bids. In the "no" camp are two Republicans—DA Bonny Dumanis (who finished fourth in last year's mayoral primary) and City Attorney Jan Goldsmith—and three Democrats: Assembly Majority Leader Toni Atkins, ex-state Sen. Christine Kehoe, and ex-City Councilwoman Donna Frye.

The main "maybes" for Republicans are City Councilman Kevin Faulconer, former City Councilman Carl DeMaio (last year's runner-up), and County Supervisor Ron Roberts. City Council President Todd Gloria, a Democrat who will soon become interim mayor, is also reportedly looking at the race.

2:53 PM PT: P.S. Cartography wizard Kenton Ngo also offers a great precinct-level map of St. Pete's returns.

2:58 PM PT: CT-Gov: Republican state Sen. Toni Boucher, who'd been weighing a bid for governor since at least March, now says she's forming an exploratory committee. Boucher had also been vaguely entertaining a run against Dem Rep. Jim Himes in CT-04, so presumably that's now off the table.

3:12 PM PT: CO Recall: Or not. It turns out that Libertarian Jan Brooks failed to submit enough valid signatures in the recall election of state Sen. John Morse, so contrary to an early report we cited in the previous Digest, she won't be appearing on the ballot after all. That means that on the "pick a replacement" question voters will encounter after the "do you want to recall your state senator" question, the only option will remain Republican Bernie Herpin. (Same for state Sen. Angela Giron's district: The only alternative is Republican George Rivera.)

Fundraising reports for the period of June 30 through Aug. 22 have also just been filed, and Democrats, in theory, have raised far more than Republicans. Morse and Giron took in over $600,000 each, with Mike Bloomberg personally splitting $350,000 between the two candidates. Daily Kos, through ActBlue, has also raised almost $100,000 for each in small donations.

But while the GOP committees have taken in pitiful sums, the Colorado Springs Gazette notes that most Republican advertising has come from non-profits, which don't have to disclose their donors or spending. The one conservative group to reveal their expenditures was the NRA, which laid out just over $100,000 during the reporting period.

3:29 PM PT: WV-03: The NRCC's latest silly season ad hits Dem Rep. Nick Rahall on environmental issues, saying he "betrayed" West Virginia by allegedly voting in favor of a "carbon tax," and by standing "with Pelosi at the EPA while environmentalists praised Obama's war on coal." There's no word on the size of the buy, beyond a note that this was part of a $150,000 multi-media purchase targeting nine different Democrats.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 06:00:14 AM PDT

  •  TN-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jncca, MichaelNY

    I don't know if these are strong or not. I do know we've talked about 60% in a primary as a sign of weakness.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 06:14:11 AM PDT

    •  60% in a primary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      on Election Day is a sign of weakness, though in a state with no runoffs it's not terrible.

      The bigger things to note are that (1) this is an internal poll, and (2) his challengers have almost no name rec and can only go up.  It's clear that Lamar! is releasing an internal showing him crushing the competition in the hopes that they'll just go away -- you know, similar to Mitch.

      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 06:40:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's still early. Give this time. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      I know I sound like a broken record with this stuff, but it was never all that likely that we'd see Alexander struggling right now. If he were in poor shape, a challenge would have developed much sooner.

      It's very possible that he could defeat Carr, or anyone else that emerges. In fact, it's probably likely, at this point.

      But it's still early. Very, very early. Carr is pretty unknown, and Alexander isn't really hated. More importantly, these people are impatient, impervious to reason, and very angry. Like with Liz Cheney, the challenger has plenty of time to make his case. If we check back on this race in a few months (and I hope someone does), and it shows a much tighter race, it becomes that much more like Alexander will fall.

      We're in a tough spot because our bench is weak and what would make this a much more appealing race won't be clear until months from now, if ever. But like them, we have the luxury of time. If Bredesen or Cooper wants it, he will get the nomination.

      Plus, this will drain Alexander of resources to some degree. That's always a good thing.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:18:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not to mention (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, skibum59, MichaelNY

        If Alexander were in really poor shape, he'd have drawn a considerably stronger primary challenger.

        29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:19:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Like who? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:53:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Blackburn? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, HoosierD42, MichaelNY

            Not saying she'd actually run against him, but someone more of that stripe.  Right now Lamar's announced challenger is the guy who thought a race against Scott DesJarlais was too daunting.

            29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

            by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:37:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Is it only because he thought DesJarlais (0+ / 0-)

              was too hard to beat? So far, besides Carr, only Brenda Lenard has openly challenged Alexander, and she isn't winning. It's possible others could join in, as it's still early, but while Carr was challenging DesJarlais, Jim Tracy was doing the same and raising more money.

              Not that this really goes against the point that Alexander would have drawn a better opponent if he were more vulnerable, but this might have been the easier race to win for Carr, but not because of DesJarlais.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:49:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  he was going into a clown car primary (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, JBraden, gabjoh, jeffmd, MichaelNY

              backing out of that isn't the same as thinking its daunting.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:04:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  It's strong at this stage but also irrelevant (5+ / 0-)

      Think back to all the teabagger primary upsets, research the polling from those races, you'll see that the teabagger winners always trailed badly until very late.  Whether it was Sharron Angle or Todd Akin or Christine O'Donnell or so many others, they were mired in the basement for almost the entire primary campaign until the final month.

      And in many cases, the teabagger winner didn't even jump into the race until late.

      That's why it's hopeless to try to project right now whether Alexander is vulnerable.  A bad poll is a real sign of trouble yes, but a good poll doesn't mean the opposite.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:29:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        There was the aforementioned 62-30 Murkowski lead and Angle started in single digits. Mourdock was down 31-45 but he was a statewide elected official and went on to crush Lugar.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:33:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  who won special election yesterday? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker
  •  CT-GOV: Boucher running for gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY
    Standing 4 feet 11 inches tall, Boucher is known for her impassioned speeches against marijuana at the state Capitol.
    ...
    On the House floor in 2007, Boucher spent more than three hours asking questions and speaking about the deleterious effects of marijuana.
    http://courantblogs.com/...
  •  thanks for making a list of (5+ / 0-)

    reasons why getting a cold 2 weeks after getting over your last one is OK.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:02:40 AM PDT

  •  MA-GOV: Don Berwick interview & Tumblr (6+ / 0-)
    Waste in government spending "erodes" the impact of tax dollars in dealing with problems or providing services, Berwick said.

    "With an effective use of resources, we can do more. That is especially true in combating poverty, he said, adding that he wants to declare a renewed "war on poverty," reminiscent of the 1960s, which would be in part funded through more cost-effective and efficient programs.

    http://www.berkshireeagle.com/...

    The first campaign Tumblr I've seen:
    http://berwickforgovernor.tumblr.com/

  •  David Dewhurst (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, MichaelNY

    thinks Wendy Davis doesn't stand a chance in a statewide race.

    Of all the people in Texas, David "I lost a Senate primary to a Some Dude" Dewhurst is about the last person I would trust to know who does and does not stand a chance in a statewide race.

    Republicans can't seem to make up their mind about whether they want Wendy to run or not.

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:12:05 AM PDT

  •  RNC plans a digital network to rival Obama's (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JohnnyBoston, James Allen, MichaelNY

    Barkett says that replicating what Obama did isnt hard. They want to go even further.

    I've said it before, but I'll be curious to see if they can do something like this at the party level, vs. the presidential candidate level. Because a successful presidential candidate is probably better at putting this together vs. a party.

    link.  

    •  They couldn't replicate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      the voter mobilization system, at any rate.

    •  I do worry this nsa stuff will keep tech folks (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, pademocrat

      away from Obama and Dems in the future.  

      “I will be far more aggressive in my reporting from now. I am going to publish many more documents. I have many more documents on England’s spy system. I think they will be sorry for what they did.” -G.Greenwald

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:30:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hmm, never thought about that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        Obama no longer on the ballot, so if it really is a big concern, they would have to not work for, say, Clinton.

         I could definitely see some tech folks supporting Rand Paul or, more likely, Christie Christie. Which is why I think this effort is better run by a strong presidential candidate. But we'll see what happens.

        •  Chris Christie (13+ / 0-)

          If techies think that he's going to end the NSA stuff, they'll be severely disappointed.

          •  True (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, BoswellSupporter

            I meant, a lot of the tech people who supported Obama did it because they agree with him on the issues. Because most seem to be left leaning.

            And Christie is the most moderate of the GOP field, or at least can fake being moderate, so it could attract some of those tech people.

            •  But, he is very pro-NSA... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...and got in a big spat with Ron Paul over surveillance.  He is very pro surveillance.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:21:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Christie (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

              I still don't see how Christie makes it through the nominating process.  He's a good VP pick for someone potentially, but his impatience with the media will bring him down if he launches his own candidacy.

              He needs to go to all the states as well.  I know Rudy decided to not contest any state until Florida, but it never made sense to me why he didn't compete in New Hampshire.  If Christie adopts a similar strategy, he would be toast.

              I know people complain about how conservative Iowa GOP caucus goers are, but there are in roads for all candidates in my state if they play their cards right.  Urbandale, Cedar Falls, Bettendorf are all places where a non-hardliner can make things happen.  

              IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

              by BoswellSupporter on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:40:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I can easily see him getting it because... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BoswellSupporter

                ...it will be a divided field with several credible choices, I would bet with comparable money, making it hard for anyone to break out early.  So you needle a thread come in first in a couple states early one, don't have to be consecutive.  And all that takes is to catch fire at the right moments.

                The only wildcard to me is Jeb Bush, who I'm increasingly convinced would become the clear frontrunner at some point.  I don't think anyone can raise money like him, Bush World has all the connections that can be had.  And GOP voters are always attracted to a strong personal brand, that's why they almost always nominate someone who ran before, and when they didn't it was someone named "George Bush."  Jeb Bush is easily the strongest personal brand if he runs, and none of the serious alternatives has ever run before to establish his own personal brand.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:26:49 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  aside from being a Bush (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BoswellSupporter

                  and polling in the single digits right now.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:28:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  His polling right now doesn't matter at all (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Christopher Walker

                    If Jeb runs, he will raise money, he will win over voters over time just because he's a Bush.  He won't run roughshod the way his brother did, it will be more of a slog like his dad, and that's because his brother damaged the family brand.  But the Bushes are still popular among Republicans, and "among Republicans" is all that matters.

                    That's the error in dismissing him as a Bush, just because that hurts him in November doesn't mean it hurts him in caucuses and primaries.  It hurts a little, but not very much.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:33:58 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Christie (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  You lay out a very good path for him, but I don't think all of their interest groups are sold on him at all.  I think Christie will say something to upset enough people and blow the nomination if he runs.  

                  Jeb Bush probably doesn't want to run, but he will if he's afraid that a pro-immigration reform candidate won't get the nomination.  

                  I wonder if Mike Huckabee couldn't lose some weight again and potentially get into the race.  He would have a definite following although he's not a "full spectrum conservative" either so he would struggle at times as well.  

                  Christie's an interesting candidate, no doubt about it.  

                  IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                  by BoswellSupporter on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:15:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  That's complete nonsense (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, askew, wadingo

        I don't even know where to begin, no one really cares about the NSA stuff that much, and the kinds of Democrats who would ever work on campaigns are the most committed kind to begin with.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:32:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think any effect will be mainly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          enthusiasm-dampening. You may see a few scattered cases of newly politicized people going for the Rand Paul types, but it's not like there aren't Democrats who are against the NSA ultrasurveillance stuff for people like us to work for. (Although I think the people who are more politically tuned in are the most likely to care, so it's gonna affect, say, campaign workers and volunteers more than the voting public at large. Which is precisely why aisle-jumping would be a relatively minimal concern.)

          "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

          by gabjoh on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:06:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Against Christie, wouldn't the issue (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, MichaelNY

            be neutralized?

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:12:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think any Republican other than Rand (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              Paul is taking a position that is less in favor of spying than Obama on this, no?

              "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

              by gabjoh on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:45:14 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Rand Paul won't be the GOP nominee (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Paul is unacceptable to way too many Republicans to have any real chance at the nomination.

                And there aren't going to be any earnest politically-savvy techies who are bouncing between Democrats and libertarians.

                Campaign folk are serious about their political party commitment.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:41:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Ted Cruz (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Ted Cruz is all over the map on a given issue depending upon the audience and what day of the week it is.  The poor guy tries to straddle the line between the Paul voters and traditional Texas hawks every day, he'll never put together a nuanced policy so he may be able to get away with it.  

                IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                by BoswellSupporter on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:44:18 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Cruz? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BoswellSupporter

                Isn't he a libertarian type?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:58:24 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  NOVA (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          Your perception is probably biased because you live in NOVA. The NSA stuff has angered many liberals and conservatives in a lot of states.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:22:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Didn't they fail to test run ORCA or whatever (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      it was called before election day in 2012?

      I don't think it's impossible for them to build a sophisticated operation. They will certainly have the money to do so. But it's not clear if the talent that could help push it to the next level will be there or if it will merely do anything more than limit their losses in a bad year. Which is to say, McCain probably would have lost in 2008, and Romney in 2012, even if their mobilization efforts were much, much better.

      The big difference could also be, as your post indicates, whether it can be utilized all over the country. Can OFA's database? That much hasn't been clear to me.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:23:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah! It's easy! (12+ / 0-)

      Apparently it wasn't easy last year, when ORCA crashed on election day, but it'll be easy this year.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:26:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  good luck (6+ / 0-)

      we'll be moving on to newer and better things while they're still fighting the last war.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:50:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Steve Lonegan (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, James Allen, askew, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    made some pretty insulting (to me anyway) remarks about what Cory Booker said about being gay.

    For example, “'It’s kind of weird,' Lonegan added. 'As a guy, I personally like being a guy.'”

    •  I see what he's trying to say, but (0+ / 0-)

      I think it's pretty weak.  If that's the best he's got...  eh.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:28:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Harold Ickes returns to DNC committee after (7+ / 0-)

    a four year absence.

    Some speculation that this could be a sign Hillary is running for president. Ickes is a close adviser, and he is rejoining the Rules and Bylaws panel, the one in charge of the presidential nominations process.

    link.

    •  So Clinton isn't going to learn from 2008? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, askew

      Who's next - Mark Penn?  

      “I will be far more aggressive in my reporting from now. I am going to publish many more documents. I have many more documents on England’s spy system. I think they will be sorry for what they did.” -G.Greenwald

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:34:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In fairness, I dont think she can control (11+ / 0-)

        Ickes going to DNC.

        But yeah, if she lets Penn rejoin her campaign..wow.

        This is my biggest concern with another Clinton campaign.

        I hope she runs and I would vote for her. But I hope she doesnt go with the same people she had the last time.

        Because this time, there really isnt going to be a competitive primary. So it's more likely that when the campaign faces pressures, it's in the general and I dont know that Penn and co could handle that well.

        •  I agree. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY

          And whoever comes out of the GOP primary will be battled hardended and their whole campaign organization battled tested and ready to hit the ground running.  

          If Jeb Bush runs and loses the primary, you know the eventual winner will run on "No more Bushes, no more Clintons!"  

          Clinton needs to find a way to run an energetic campaign, can't run a boring old school grind it out street fight campaign.  

          “I will be far more aggressive in my reporting from now. I am going to publish many more documents. I have many more documents on England’s spy system. I think they will be sorry for what they did.” -G.Greenwald

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:42:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Ickes wasn't a problem before (14+ / 0-)

          Not everyone in Hillary World was bad.  She had a mixed bag of liberals and DLC hacks, knowledgeable campaign pros and people who weren't as smart as they thought they were.

          I always had the impression Ickes was fine, he was one of the better ones.  And he's liberal, not a DLC nut.

          Finally, I'd note that just because these people are preparing for a Hillary run, that doesn't mean she's going to the trigger.  It just means she realizes you can't accelerate from zero to 60 mph in a nanosecond.  You want to have things in place to start campaigning hard and fast if you decide to run.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:12:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

            Now, Howard Wolfson I remember being a pain in the ass. And, frankly, Terry McAuliffe.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:28:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Very well said, DCC. Let's also remember that (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, GloFish, JBraden, wadingo, MichaelNY

            at least one of Obama's high ranking staffers--Messina, maybe, or Plouffe--only worked for him because they didn't work for Clinton. I wouldn't be surprised if it were more. Had some of them worked for her, she might have been the nominee.

            People also switched sides once Obama was the nominee, no?

            I'l be really worried if Penn is involved with an HRC 2016 campaign, but overall, I try not to get too worried about this stuff. There's a boatload of talent on our side, and it will show up for HRC if and when she runs.

            I'd also say that she's not an idiot and her husband is a better politician than she is, so learning from their mistakes is definitely likely.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:28:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Ickes was nominated by DWS to that position. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY

          There's no way he did that without Hillary's approval.

          Wasn't he one of the idiots on her team who didn't understand how the primary worked? Now, he is going to be in charge of creating the 2016 primary process? Curious if he moves up other states primaries to make Iowa less important and if he moves bigger states like California and New York to the beginning of the calendar.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:55:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think Penn is the only one (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          Who has absolutely no shot to come back. It's just universal knowledge by now that he was one of the main forces that drug her campaign down.

          I could even see P.S.D. playing a role in a Clinton campaign again before Mark Penn is invited back.

      •  James Carville as campaign manager! (6+ / 0-)

        He is without a doubt my favorite Democratic strategist on TV.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:41:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He'll definitely be involved. (10+ / 0-)

          Begala as well.  

          It will be like the Blues Brothers - "We're putting the band back together", with Bill and Hillary driving around the country tracking down former aides, staffers, operatives.

          “I will be far more aggressive in my reporting from now. I am going to publish many more documents. I have many more documents on England’s spy system. I think they will be sorry for what they did.” -G.Greenwald

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:45:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The 1992 people are superior to the 2008 version (5+ / 0-)

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:49:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, I'm fine with Carville and Begala (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JohnnyBoston

            It surprised me that they didnt go to work for her full time in 2008. I wonder if that has ever been explained.

            Carville, I find, very annoying and irritating as a person, but I think he is good at his job.

            Carville/Begala + some Obama tech people(Teddy Goff, for example) and it will be a strong campaign.

            •  I've always liked Begala (6+ / 0-)

              He is like a toned down version of Carville.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:54:36 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  It's a "been there, done that" situation (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, JohnnyBoston, HoosierD42, wadingo

              Once you've been in the leadership of a winning Presidential campaign, you've done it all.

              Carville and Begala have been making good money doing corporate work, and they have nothing left to prove in politics.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:13:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think she's in trouble with all those folks (6+ / 0-)

              She needs new blood, people familiar with how OFA does it.  That's how any future Democratic Presidential nominee needs to do it.  Campaigning is much more a science now, and it's better to promote people who have an experienced working knowledge of it.  When people point to Robby Mook who now runs the McAuliffe campaign, that's the kind of people to look to now.

              I'm pretty sure Carville and Begala haven't done nuts-and-bolts campaign work in a long time, they do corporate stuff now.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:17:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  True (0+ / 0-)

                I'm not saying I favor them. But if she has to pick a long time Clinton adviser to run the campaign, I would be fine with Carville/Begala with some Obama tech people.

                They are out of practice, which is why I dont favor them, but I think that "war room" mentality is a good one to have in any campaign.  

              •  She almost has to get new blood if she's the (0+ / 0-)

                nominee and especially if she runs from the outset and crushes it. For one thing, people who want to work on a campaign will work with her, or else they go to a lower race or nothing at all. And unless she's a complete idiot, or Bill is, they have to realize that things have changed and Obama's people, or people who aren't in their inner circle, don't know everything.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:35:09 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Hillary crashing and burning is more likely (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew

                Than the press thinks it is. She is -not- a shoo-in if she runs, and if she doesn't realize this, we're in trouble.

                19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:12:40 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That isn't likely at all (6+ / 0-)

                  But isn't impossible. Frankly, I think the lightening striking twice people fail to see how much stronger she is than she ever was in 2008.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:16:43 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  LikelIER, not likely. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I'm not saying she's not the favorite, she absolutely is, but she has nowhere to go but down.

                    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                    by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:33:31 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It depends who runs (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      She could do with a challenge of sorts to shake the cobwebs away.

                      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                      by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:35:57 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  She'll get a challenge of sorts, (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        but it will be an extended audition for the VP spot, most likely.

                        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                        by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:39:23 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I'm not really talking about a primary (0+ / 0-)

                          but a strong Republican opponent (i. e. Christie) could absolutely take her down if a relatively perfect storm happens. It's not likely, but it's made likelier by Democrats believing she's invincible. She's still the strongest candidate since... Clinton '96.

                          19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                          by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:16:18 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Chris Christie isn't strong (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            That's a bigger error in judgment than the "Hillary is more vulnerable than the media thinks" comment you started off with.

                            He can't win electoral votes in states he needs to against Hillary.  There is no perfect storm that can deliver him Washington or Oregon or Michigan or Pennsylvania for sure.  

                            I can't think of what perfect storm makes Christie preferable to Clinton in Wisconsin, Minnesota or Ohio but I suppose it exists in theory.

                            While there is a perfect storm that could maybe get Christie VA or NC or FL or NV, I don't see any way he could win all 4.    

                            Add in the fact I expect Hillary's VP to come from either OH/VA/CO and she can probably lock down one of those states and take it off the board early.

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:31:01 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  If Clinton is brought down from her standing (0+ / 0-)

                            among McCain-Romney voters who see her as above politics and different from Obama, she gets less than 60% with women and somewhat lower black turnout, Christie could probably flip enough suburban Rockefeller voters in places such as NOVA and the Philadelphia suburbs that he could eke out a win through NC-FL-CO-VA-OH-PA. I do believe that Christie has the potential to turn more suburban voters than people here think he can.

                            Again, there are several factors that have to fall into place for such a scenario to come true, also including a crappy national environment for the Democrats, a campaign more similar to Clinton '08 than Obama '12, the media turning on HRC et cetera, in order to remove Clinton's existing advantages.

                            All in all, I'd peg a Clinton-Christie race as one where Clinton wins around 75% of the time. I just want those who think that Clinton makes or breaks the race to calm down a bit.

                            19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                            by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:53:54 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Why do you think Christie (0+ / 0-)

                            can flip suburban voters more than other people here supposedly believe?

                            To be sure, aside from him and perhaps Walker and Jeb Bush, there's really nobody on their side who wouldn't lose to her by at least 7-10 points. And even Walker and Bush might be easily beaten.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:56:28 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  His indie credentials hold up as much as Clinton's (0+ / 0-)

                            And he has a better chance of defying his party label in the long run, as Clinton has more of a record that her enemies can run on.

                            Note - CAN doesn't necessarily mean WILL flip.

                            19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                            by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:55:39 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  You should do more analysis (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Not much of what you say is even remotely backed up by trends or reality.  

                            A Republican isn't winning Pennsylvania.  Dems romp in Philly and have won MontCo for several elections now (even Dan Onorato won it in 2010 and he was the worst candidate in a dreadful year) and the rest of the Philly burbs tend to even out (Bucks and Chester tend to be offset by DelCo).  Dems leave SEPA with an at least 350K vote margin in Pres years (more likely 400-500K) from the 5 big SEPA counties and there just aren't the votes elsewhere to over-turn that.

                            There are other trends in VA/CO that would defy your prediction also.  Hillary doesn't need anywhere close to 60% of women to win, so I'm not sure what that metric was thrown out for.

                            Also, that coalition of 6 states has gone GOP simulataneously in decades.  

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:10:13 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yet PA is trending R relative to the nation. (0+ / 0-)

                            If the 2012 national results were in the line of 2004, PA would have gone Republican. Now, it's possible that Western PA will swing back to the Democrats with Clinton on the ticket and there are more variables to takei nto account, but if the national mood is remotely pro-Republican, PA will be one of the states that will be in play.

                            The 60% comment was meant to note that HRC of course would win if the women turn out that strongly for her, a Republican win assumes that they don't.

                            Except PA, the named states went for Bush in '04, and it's possible that they all can swing back to the Democrats. Colorado might be a stretch but it depends on demographics and the Obama coalition holding. VA especially has many voters that I can see as Obama-Christie.

                            19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                            by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:03:09 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Anything is possible, but PA isn't really (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

                            trending red in any significant way.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:06:41 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  PA will not be in play (4+ / 0-)

                            No one lives in western PA, all those red counties hold no people.  PA isn't in play in 2016, nor was it in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012.  There simply aren't 200K-300K voters available to the GOP just waiting in the wings for Chris Christie; they had choice of Dole, GHWB, W, McCain, Romney and said no to all of them.  

                            Don't get me wrong, I want the GOP to spend a fortune in NJ/PA and then see Karl Rove throw a fit but nothing you state is based in reality.

                            PA isn't trending red...it just isn't.

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:21:24 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Western PA is also losing population (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            R30A, James Allen, BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

                            while Eastern PA is gaining it, in most cases.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:25:53 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  If... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

                            Philly is growing and the Pittsburgh suburbs are declining the GOP hopes are minimal.  Sure the growth in Eastern PA is not all in Dem-friendly places, but I don't see Lancaster and york county voting 70%+ for GOP like they did in 2010.  

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:39:00 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Biggest growth rates in PA (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            in the east are in Pike, at 23.90 percent, where Romney got 55.00 percent, and Monroe, at 22.50 percent, where Obama got 55.00 percent. The latter had about three times as many voters in 2012.

                            Then comes Chester, at 15.1 percent, where Romney only barely edged out Obama by .21 percent. About 250,000 people voted there in 2012.

                            Then comes York, if that isn't going too far, at 13.00 percent, where Romney crushed Obama with almost 60 percent of the vote. Around 190,000 people voted there in 2012.

                            Then comes Lehigh, at 12.00 percent, where Obama edged out Romney by 4.50 percent.

                            And so on. It's not all positive, because not everything from 2012 held, but it's definitely more than making up for whatever we lost in the western part of the state.

                            Here's a nice link. But here's a better one, with this part being key:

                            Frey also found that Hispanics account for 77 percent of the state’s growth, and the gains are tilted toward the eastern part, including suburban Philadelphia, Lehigh Valley, Lancaster, Reading and Harrisburg. Most of the decline in the under-18 population occurred in western Pennsylvania.

                            White Population Falls
                            Since 2000, the non-Hispanic white population fell 2.2 percent to 10,094,652, and whites now account for 79.5 percent of the population, 2010 Census data show. Blacks were up 10.4 percent to 1,327,091 and now make up 10.4 percent of the population. Asians rose 58.6 percent to 346,288 and make up 2.7 percent. Across the state, the Hispanic population rose 82.6 percent to 719,660, the data show.

                            Not only are whites not growing as quickly as other groups part of the state, they are actively shrinking! That's far from a guarantee that we'll always win, but the most likely voters for them are actually declining.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 02:43:07 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I hope you're the one of use who's right. (0+ / 0-)

                            I do take pride in being pessimistic by default, so there's that.

                            19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                            by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:45:41 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That "relative trend" is junk "analysis" (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Pennsylvania isn't trending, and comparing to the country as a whole isn't valid analysis.  Any trend has to be absolute, not relative, or there's no trend.

                            Talking about a "trend" that is "relative" to the country as a whole is classic misuse of PVI.

                            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:51:58 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Mississippi will go blue before PA goes red (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            IntoGov

                            You remind of someone who comes over here from a right leaning election blog, and who states that garbage. People who say that about Pennsylvania, can keep saying that till their face turns purple and the cows come home.

                            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 05:06:47 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Nevada isn't swinging back to the GOP (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            And Christie in particular wouldn't play well in Virginia.

                            The Obama coalition is made up of demographics that were originally the Hillary coalition. She'll run strong with the African-Americans, the growing Latino population, and the college campuses especially in Blacksburg/Charlottesville. Hillary would also run better than Obama in SWVA.

                            If Christie were to even get out of a primary he'd have to adopt or at least endorse the same harmful social and economic issues that drove out people in droves in Fairfax/Richmond to vote against Romney/Ryan.

                            Florida could swing back, but Obama was a uniquely poor fit for the state with how poorly he runs with the elderly caucasians. Hillary would hopefully do better among that group, and we'll have four more years of demographic change to back us up.

                          •  She doesn't make or break anything (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Tayya, MichaelNY

                            But clearly she is the strongest possible nominee in either party. Though arguably so was John McCain in 2008.

                            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                            by conspiracy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:50:28 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Would Christie not run at all? (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            R30A, MichaelNY

                            Do you expect 2016's climate to be known fairly early on? Correct me if I am wrong, but while the panic starting in September of 2008 wasn't clear, it was widely expected to be a Democratic year. If we get a sense of what type of year it will be well in advance, wouldn't this have an impact on the race?

                            In other words, what might make Christie stay out of the race? It's probably more likely 2016 will be better for them than 2012 was, but it could actually be pretty good for us, even before demographics, if the economy grows more quickly. If it looks like we are favored, does Christie run at all, especially if Clinton looks like she will be the nominee?

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:07:13 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Christie doesn't run (0+ / 0-)

                            if he understands the situation rationally and is unwilling to run and lose. Of course, he could choose to run, knowing he's a likely loser, so as to make a point and increase the likelihood that he could win if he runs again in 2020.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:07:25 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  she has a long way to go down before (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bjssp

                      she would actually lose.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:06:50 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  That certainly isn't something to assume (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      HoosierD42, IntoGov

                      Saying Hillary can only go down is completely absurd.

                      1) it assume a Hillary campaign will persuade zero voters

                      2) it assumes a Dem coronation and a GOP primary bloodbath is impossible

                      3) it assumes a crackpot like Paul or Cruz couldn't win a fractured nominating process and render themselves wholly unacceptable to the middle quarter of the country in the process

                      Very bad assumptions.  Hillary could go down some, but she could just as easily go up some, and if you don't assume that you just haven't been paying attention to the Republican party for the past several years.

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:11:25 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Clarification (0+ / 0-)

                        She is very unlikely to go up some solely on her own merits. How many voters are there that would potentially vote Democratic, but wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton if the election was held today?

                        2) and 3) aren't really Clinton going up, it's the GOP going down. You do have a point there, though. But all theories are useless if Cruz or Paul are nominated, because then we're not discussing if Pennsylvania will be competitive but if Louisiana will be.

                        19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

                        by Tayya on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:16:17 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  to your first point (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          HoosierD42

                          the ones with Clinton derangement syndrome.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:18:52 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  GOP going down = Clinton going up (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          LordMike

                          Even if the "going down" means people just stay away, it still means Hillary's margin would go up.

                          As for the first point, James hits it.  There are a lot of Dem and left votes who do not now support Hillary and would say they wouldn't vote for her, now.  This is not a small group of people.

                          Hillary has a lot of room to grow based on campaigning on issues; on making her personality more acceptable to older people; and based upon contrasting her positions with the Republican extremists.

                          There is no evidence or reason to think that her current numbers are her ceiling, and lots of reasons to think that she has a higher ceiling.

                          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                          by tommypaine on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:32:40 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  Clinton is also in a different position in 2016 (4+ / 0-)

                    than she was in 2008. Now, she's gotten even closer than any woman has before to the Oval Office and remains almost certainly closer than any woman on the other side is. If she doesn't run, that's one thing, but if she does, it's inching her, our party, and women in general that much closer to that milestone. This is before we consider that (a) she looks like a true giant when we might need it and (b) there's nobody of similar path breaking stature (as in, no Hispanic Democrat like Obama) ready to take her down. Never say never if there's some skilled progressive to her left that can manage to give her a run for her money, but who will it be? An acceptable but ultimately boring white guy like Warner or O'Malley?

                    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                    by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:37:41 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  I strongly disagree with that (0+ / 0-)
                She needs new blood, people familiar with how OFA does it.  That's how any future Democratic Presidential nominee needs to do it.
                The OFA model worked for Barack Obama in 2008, and is generally held to only work for his campaign; it's been tried with quite a few others and been much less successful. (This is just in terms of volunteer organization; in terms of targeting, they were completely solid.)

                "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

                by gabjoh on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:31:52 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  But, they'll never get that fab sound again... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JohnnyBoston

            ...not without some more horns.  They'll never get Mr. Fabulous.  He's the to Matre 'd at the chez Paul.  He's pulling down six bills a week.  You'll never get guys like that out of their high paying gigs.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:54:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Campaign slogan: (5+ / 0-)

            "We're on a mission from god".

            And the campaign posters will be Hilary rocking a fedora and shades in a black pantsuit.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:53:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Ugh, that guy is scum. Hillary needs to keep (0+ / 0-)

          all of those people away from her team in 2016. Beagala is the only one who isn't slimy.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:57:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  YES! (0+ / 0-)

          I love him. He's an amazing person too, a really standup guy. He should be representing us on MTP every Sunday.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:29:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Gov, VA HD-17: TMac overperforming in SW (12+ / 0-)

    Link here:  http://blogs.roanoke.com/...

    Quite something if this is an honest initial ballot test, TMac down only 47-42 in HD-17.  Obama lost the district 59-39, Kaine lost 58-41.  TMac is already outperforming them even with 11% still undecided.

    TMac has been airing his ad attacking Cuccinelli for siding with energy companies over landowners.  Perhaps that's having an effect.  Cooch's ideological extremism normally would be no handicap in SW, but you never know, perhaps TMac is persuading them Cooch is a bridge too far even for them.

    I hope it goes without saying that if TMac is above 40% in districts like this one, then he wins easily.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:08:24 AM PDT

  •  Boston Mayor: Map of Campaign Offices (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Darth Jeff
    A Boston Herald article by Richard Weir entitled “Campaign offices clustered” notes how the offices of the 12 Candidates in the mayors race cluster in certain neihgborhoods while totally missing others.
    Blackstonian mapped them out:
    http://blackstonian.com/...
  •  OH Treas.- Mandel involved in two crashes (6+ / 0-)

    since 2011, fails to report them:

    During the late-night March accident, Mandel was riding in a vehicle owned by his 2012 U.S. Senate campaign, months after he'd lost his high-profile bid against Democrat Sherrod Brown.

    Under federal campaign finance law, Senate campaign property can't be used for personal use or to campaign for a different office, such as treasurer.

    I like his spokesperson's explanation:
    As treasurer, Mandel has opted not to use state-owned transportation for official business on the premise that it saves taxpayers money. The practice, while legal, allows him to leave virtually no paper trail at his state office of his travel activity.

    Campaign spokeswoman Rebecca Wasserstein said the practice is fiscally responsible.

    "While many public officials use tax dollars to travel around the state, Treasurer Mandel is saving Ohioans thousands of dollars by not using a penny of taxpayer money," she said. "This is yet another example of Josh Mandel walking the walk as a fiscal conservative and leader with integrity."

  •  NYC Mayor (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    I don't know if this has been reported yet, but John Catsimatidis released an ad earlier this week featuring a retired Port Authority officer taking Joe Lhota to task for his, "Port Authority Cops = Mall Cops" gaffe.''

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:13:33 AM PDT

  •  ME-SD19: Someone on rrh said (4+ / 0-)

    that the Republican threatened to drop out if the state GOP went negative.  Apparently, the Republican is also done for good as she said that if she loses, she retires with her husband in Florida, Mike Castle style.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:50:55 AM PDT

  •  VA: Assoc. of Realtors endorses whole Dem ticket (14+ / 0-)

    extending from McAuliffe to Herring and Northam: http://bluevirginia.us/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:51:47 AM PDT

  •  Brian Howey looks at the failure of the (9+ / 0-)

    9 years of GOP rule to help Indiana and whether Dems may have a chance to come back to power in 2014 and 2016. Howey seems to have summed up the Indiana Democratic Party very well- "the Indiana Democratic Party still slumbers". He notes Dems not having strong candidates in IN-02 and IN-08, while Dems have former St. Rep. and Seymour Mayor Bill Bailey in IN-09 against Rep. Todd Young, but that Dems don't seem to be making much of a case to cut the legislative super-majorities. Howey does seem to think that former House Speaker and 2012 nominee John Gregg or former Rep. Baron Hill could give Gov. Mike Pence a tough race in 2016. I think it is interesting that Howey, whose article appears in a lot of medium and small newspapers, who was a leading cheerleader for Mitch Daniels, now is looking rather critically at the GOP leadership in the state.

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:28:19 AM PDT

    •  Indiana's fascinating to me. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, gabjoh

      Here you have a state that isn't averse to electing Democrats even if it's more center-right than Ohio or Missouri. It isn't undergoing any sort of huge change one way or the other, in that it's not Arkansas for the Republicans or Virginia for the Democrats, at least not in some big way.

      In some ways, the state is an interesting test case for the reasons I described above. If we can compete effectively here, perhaps we will pick up ways to compete in similar areas around the country.

      Can they leverage any of the recent developments and facts--RTW legislation, the failure of Republican moves to jumpstart job growth, and so on--to cobble together a coalition over a cycle or two? I'm not sure.

      Perhaps the answer is a Contract for America-like response: campaigning on 5, or at most 10, easily quotable moves to address the things described in the article above. They can all revolve around, say, job creation and/or increasing Indiana's population/trying to stop graduates from leaving the state.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:51:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ME-Sen Collins 53-33 against Cutler (12+ / 0-)

    The PPP numbers for Maine Senate: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    No real surprises - Collins beats everyone by over 20 points (even famous author, Stephen King).

    However, by a 48-47 margin, Maine Republicans would prefer to nominate someone more conservative than Collins, so she could be in trouble if she gets primaried.

  •  NYC Mayor: Weiner resorting to hiring crowds (11+ / 0-)

    I think when you're actually paying a company to provide actors to appear as your enthusiastic fans, you've pretty much hit rock bottom.  Carlos Danger's campaign is denying it.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:08:55 AM PDT

  •  Wow, just: wow (12+ / 0-)

    kos and David both recced my Dakotas diary, and David tweeted it out!

    I am gobsmacked, thank you so much.

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:34:33 AM PDT

  •  NYC Mayor Quinnipiac (11+ / 0-)

    deBlasio  36
    Quinn 21
    Thompson 20
    Weiner 8
    Liu 6

    http://quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:44:29 AM PDT

  •  NYC-Mayor: DeBlasio-mentum continues (10+ / 0-)

    DeBlasio now at 36%, Quinn 21, Thompson 20, Carlos Danger 8, Liu 6.

    link(PDF).

    Wonder if DeBlaio might win this outright, with 40+1 on Sept 10.

  •  Remember Rep Joe Walsh? (6+ / 0-)

    Well, apparently he's winning hearts and minds...

    I have a dream that all black parents will have the right to choose where their kids attend school.

    I have a dream that all black boys and girls will grow up with a father.

    I have a dream that young black men will stop shooting other young black men.

    I have a dream that all young black men will say "no" to gangs and to drugs.

    I have a dream that all black young people will graduate from high school.

    I have a dream that young black men won't become fathers until after they're married and they have a job.

    I have a dream that young unmarried black women will say "no" to young black men who want to have sex.

    I have a dream that today's black leadership will quit blaming racism and "the system" for what ails black America.

    I have a dream that black America will take responsibility for improving their own lives.

    I have a dream that one day black America will cease their dependency on the government plantation, which has enslaved them to lives of poverty, and instead depend on themselves, their families, their churches, and their communities.

    Yeah, I don't think he's going to be elected to anything anytime soon.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:51:11 AM PDT

  •  Teddy Bear Martin Luther King Jr. (9+ / 0-)

    I still follow Richard Tisei on facebook for some reason. He couldn't put out message on King without a gratuitary bash at Al Sharpton. And that just after saying how positive and inspirational King's message was. No self-awareness whatsoever.

    Tisei is a scumbag. He peddled conspiracy theories about stuffing ballotboxes with the best of them after his close defeat. But he's Gay, so I guess that means he's a thoughtful moderate.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 12:16:42 PM PDT

  •  MA-GOV: Dan Wolf back in, sort of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    Wolf, who has planned to run on a progressive platform for his gubernatorial campaign, picked up a strong ally Wednesday in his struggle to reverse the commission’s decision when Governor Deval Patrick expressed sympathy for the senator’s predicament.

    “The reactions of most people have been -- really across political differences -- is that the decision may be technically right but it is practically odd,’’ said Patrick, reflecting what many in the business and civic community see as discouraging to entrepreneurs like Wolf who might consider running for office.

    http://www.boston.com/...

    It looks like he's holding on to his senate seat, but his gubernatorial campaign is still on hold until his appeal is approved.

  •  NYC Mayor: Serious concern trolling by Kornacki (7+ / 0-)
    Worth remembering that it's been 24 years since NYC elected a Dem mayor & that de Blasio is the opponent R's want.
    https://twitter.com/...

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 01:27:24 PM PDT

  •  LA-SEN, LA-GOV: Pollster Elliott Stonecipher (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    made a comment that surprised.

    He wonders if Mary Landrieu will run for re-election, noting that she is considering the governor's race.
     

    He also questioned whether Landrieu would even actually run for re-election next year, claiming her possible interest in the governor's job would be hampered by running to keep her senate seat if her numbers crumbled closer to election day.

    Mitch has been mentioned as a gov candidate, but Mary? Anyone else hear this?

    Seems pretty clear she is running for re-election.

  •  KY-Sen: NRSC linking a day-old story (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    calling her response to the Syrian conflict incomprehensible: http://www.weeklystandard.com/...
    https://twitter.com/...

    I read the transcript and saw the video.  It's comprehensible.  She's saying that we should resolve the conflict, but not by rushing recklessly into the conflict.  
    Maybe it's because I let things get under my skin too easily, but does this count as "crap nobody cares about?"  It's not like she dodged the question or tried to change the subject.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:01:50 PM PDT

    •  Sounded okay to me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      I always expect the worst when I hear about these "gaffe" type situations, but it sounded okay to me. Certainly full of platitudes, but not incomprehensible .

      I dont know see it being a big issue in the campaign.

      Does McConnell really want to make the Syria a major issue in the race? I mean, he would have then contrast his supposedly clear view on Syria with Grimes. Does he have one? Does anybody really? I mean, it's a very difficult situation.

      •  If there's anything negative in there, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        it's not something that can't be overcome.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:20:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oh yeah, McConnell said nothing. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        No, McConnell hasn't said much of anything. Neither has Reid.  Cornyn, meanwhile, was very specific, as was Paul. /sarcasm.

        Paul:

        The United States should condemn the use of chemical weapons. We should ascertain who used the weapons and we should have an open debate in Congress over whether the situation warrants U.S. involvement. The Constitution grants the power to declare war to Congress not the President,” Paul said. “The war in Syria has no clear national security connection to the United States and victory by either side will not necessarily bring in to power people friendly to the United States.”
        Cornyn:
        “Before any action is taken regarding Syria, it is imperative that President Obama make the case to the American people and consult with Congress,” the statement read. “He needs to explain what vital national interests are at stake and should put forth a detailed plan with clear objectives and an estimated cost for achieving those objectives.”
        http://blogs.rollcall.com/...

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:22:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If Jesus Christ came down and tapped danced (13+ / 0-)

      on water with ALG, the NRSC would criticize her for splashing the audience a little.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:17:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  McConnell's strategy is attack everything she does (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

      in any way they can think to and see if any of it sticks. Working like a charm so far.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:34:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It kind of petered out. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Some NRSC people tweeted it, a few activists RT'd it and that was it.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 06:03:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NYC-Mayor (6+ / 0-)

    Political ad of the day: Bill de Blasio's celeb filled new spot that also features NYC drag queen Lady Bunny.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Other celebs include Cynthia Nixon, Henry Belafonte, Alec Baldwin, Susan Sarandon and more. If you weren't supporting de Blasio before, I can't imagine why you wouldn't now. Political ads w drag queens > political ads sans drag queens.

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:17:38 PM PDT

    •  Saw an ad of him with his family (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      when I was in New Brunswick on Monday.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:19:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I didn't see Alec Baldwin... (0+ / 0-)

      but seeing the former head of ACORN was nice. They're going to steal the election for BDB!

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:32:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sum up of Nunn's statewide tour (7+ / 0-)

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:45:01 PM PDT

  •  It looks like you got Florida GOPers (8+ / 0-)

    Very very concerned about losing the St. Pete mayoral race. Remember, they lost the mayor race in JAX a few years back. And they were totally stunned by that. Cause Jacksonville was once a bastion for dixiecrats, and like most of the South, started trending Republican.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 03:51:45 PM PDT

    •  They wouldn't be happy losing, but it wouldn't be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      a disaster.  Everything I've read indicates that this race will be decided on local factors (the construction of the new pier, sports team facilities, ect) and not as a bell-weather on Florida's political future.  The city's voting patterns for Mayoral elections are pretty non-partisan: For instance, African Americans have supported GOPers over Dems in big numbers in the past.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:06:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Incorrect! (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, James Allen, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Every race, no matter how small, can be an indication of future momentum. The Ft. Calhoun Community Schools Bond Election in Douglas County, Nebraska, on September 10, from 8:00 AM to 8:00 PM, will tell us much of what we need to know about the future of NE-02, the state of Nebraska, the Plains/Midwestern states, 2014, 2016, and possibly the next few decades.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:11:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah but.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        I don't think you know how significant this is. Pinellas County is essentially the birthplace of the RPOF. And the fact they're about to lose a mayoralship, that they've had since the 70s is pretty remarkable.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:17:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If they lose because Foster couldn't get a stadium (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          for the Rays, that's nice for us but I don't think I'd say it has much to do with the decline of the Florida GOP.  Often Mayors' races tie into broader state issues, but very often they come down to local factors that don't really tell us much and don't really break down along partisan lines that easily.  

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:25:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But I think it shows the underscores (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            of how Tampa Bay, specifically Hillsbourough and Pinellas has trended Democratic over the last decade. I hope Kriseman ends of winning anyway.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:35:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm really not sure if it does or not (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jeffmd, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              I'm always hesitant to attribute a Mayoral result as a sign of anything, especially a non-partisan one.  After all, what did Richard Riordan's victory tell us about L.A. turning more GOP in the 90s?  Besides, a big part of why the GOP kept winning in St. Petersburg is that many Democratic leaning groups, especially African Americans, were more than willing to vote for a Republican Mayor while still being loyal Democrats in state and federal contests.  

              If this brings about a series of Democratic mayors, maybe one day we can look at this as a major event in how the once purple area turned blue.  But for now, I'd be careful about attributing a very local contest to anything beyond the local issues and local personalities that seem to be deciding it.    

              23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

              by Jeff Singer on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:53:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  And St. Pete's pretty blue. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 06:02:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why does Mufi Hanneman keep trying? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Seriously, I've been looking at his Wiki, and it seems like he's lost so many times, with such crushing margins that it should cure him of the desire to run for higher office. Who exactly does he think his base is, and after he's lost so badly, why do they continue to vote for him? He doesn't even seem to have the excuse of being a "reformist".

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:11:15 PM PDT

  •  Governors by college (6+ / 0-)

    Ballotpedia has a cool chart on the 50 Governors by their higher education.  Some interesting things:

    Three Governors did not get a Bachelors: Jan Brewer, Gary Herbert, and Scott Walker.

    26 got law degrees.  11 stopped after Bachelors.  

    Only one got his/ her Bachelor's at a school I got rejected from, Jerry Brown with UC Berkeley.  None did undergrad at a school I got accepted to.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:22:33 PM PDT

  •  WI-Gov: The Wisconsin Dem chairman threw (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

    his support behind a potential Burke candidacy. I've also noticed that Pocan, Kind, and Barrett have tweeted out an article that profiled Burke.

    http://m.startribune.com/...

    •  I feel like Mark Harris would be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      a stronger candidate.

      She seems to have a decent resume though, and could self fund apparently.

      •  He would almost certainly be stronger (0+ / 0-)

        1. He's not from Madison.
        2. He has been elected to a position higher than school board.
        3. He has executive experience.

        Burke is better than just giving up, but she's a third-tier candidate at best. School board member from Madison? That's the best we can do? In Wisconsin? I sure hope not.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:21:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Being from Madison will not hurt a candidate. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          That meme needs to die. Though it is true that Burke has little elected experience and that could be an issue, but who's to say that Mark Harris would make a good candidate. We just don't know. It would seem that the Wisconsin Democratic leaders think that she's capable. Is that solely because of her money, or does she have more and better qualities? I'd suggest you read this profile on her.

          And remember that Walker has already raised $3 million this year. He's a fundraising juggernaut. Having someone who can self fund, and self fund large amounts is important. I don't particularly like that, but it's an unfortunate reality.

        •  Winnebago County Executive (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ndrwmls10

          isn't particularly first-tier either.  He represents 3% of the state.  Burke might actually have better name recognition being from Madison (and being from Madison is not a deal-breaker for Wisconsin voters).  Getting out the Milwaukee vote is more important to victory, as Tom Barrett's failures showed, but it's uncertain Harris is better suited to do that.

          Executive experience is overrated too.  People elect legislators all the time to be governors.  I'm not even sure there is a correlation at all showing that people prefer executive experience in their executives.

          •  No, he's decidedly not first-tier (0+ / 0-)

            It's really too bad we can't entice someone like Rep. Kind into the race, or even Outagamie Cty. Exec. Nelson -- much less Russ Feingold, who would probably kick Gov. Walker's ass provided he's learned his lesson from 2010.

            I don't think being from Madison is a deal-breaker, but the recall map is burned into my brain. We had such a bad underperformance in the Fox Valley, and I feel like Cty. Exec. Harris would at least offer some chance of mitigating that. Those folks who swung toward Walker aren't going to be jazzed by another Democrat from Madison or Milwaukee.

            And the comment about executive experience -- that is true. But Harris could at least make the argument that he knows what it takes to govern, because Walker will almost certainly hammer Burke for not knowing what it's like to have to make tough decisions and explain them to voters later. That may be unfair, since Burke does have a business background, but it could move some voters. It's an argument that resonates with me, at least (even though I'd obviously vote for a roadkill squirrel before voting for Scott Walker).

            Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:12:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Winning WI isn't brain surgery (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              Turnout in Milwaukee;
              turnout in Madison;
              being competitive in the 3rd/7th/8th;
              being competitive in the 1st;
              not getting creamed in the 6th.

              Being from Madison only helps in one of those things.  It's not a kiss of death, but it is not preferable.  If we win Brown/Outagamie/Winnebago, we win the election.  Wherever our candidate comes from, they have to be competitive there to win.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:44:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Are you talking about winning all 3? (0+ / 0-)

                Or 1 of the 3? Because Baldwin only won Winnebago county. She was able to be competitive in the Fox River Valley even though she was a "Madison liberal". It's how you frame yourself as a candidate, not where you are from.

                •  Where you are from is part of how you frame (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ndrwmls10, SaoMagnifico

                  yourself.

                  You seem to want to take this too black and white.  yes, you can obviously win if you are from Madison.  Baldwin and Jim Doyle were.  Kohl was from Milwaukee.  Pat Lucey and Gaylord Nelson were from west WI.  Feingold was from Janesville.  Doyle's races were not easy, except one of his AG races as I recall.

                  Bill Clinton won southern states partly because where he was from.  It is a pretty well established view in electoral politics that it helps in an area to be from an area, or near that area.  Being from the strongest/most left area of the election usually doesn't help... it didn't help Kamala Harris in Riverside or Fresno to be from San Francisco.  She still won though because the geographic disadvantage isn't a death sentence.

                  What you probably mean is that a candidate from Madison can appeal to voters in Brown county... they just have to campaign sensibly.  And that is true, but history shows us that it normally would also be true that being from Brown county would be helpful in Brown county too.

                  Or put another way, a candidate from Madison has to spend time campaigning in a way that says "I'm not just a Madison person" whereas a candidate from Wausau would never have to even address such concerns.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:11:52 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Also I don't mean you have to win all three (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ndrwmls10, SaoMagnifico

                  We can lose Brown/Outagamie/Winnebago and still win an election.  If we did win all three though, that is Obama08 type wipeout territory.

                  We have to be competitive in these counties though.  We can't just win by piling up margins in Milwaukee and Madison.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 11:15:29 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  St Pete Mayor (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

    Republican Bill Foster is in a very tough spot.  He is running in a city that gave Romney only 35% of the vote.  Foster needs to over-perform Romney across the board and he did not on Tuesday.  Foster lost ground to Romney in several white precincts.  Foster's best over-performances where in majority-black precincts, where Foster benefited from the non-partisan ballot (to be clear he would get 20% in a precinct that was 5% Romney).  However, Florida Democrats are targeting the race and I expect the race to become more partisan.

    The map here shows Foster's vote comparison to Romney's

    http://mcimaps.com/...

  •  WI AD-21: GOP State Rep. resigns (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.jsonline.com/...
    District shape: http://legis.wisconsin.gov/...
    GradyDem said it's 51-48 Romney, 51-47 Thompson.  So, light red, but upset territory.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 06:35:27 PM PDT

    •  If we want to retake the Assembly anytime soon (5+ / 0-)

      these are the types of districts we need to win at the very least.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:02:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  South Milwaukee USED to be a Dem area (9+ / 0-)

      Milwaukee County has undergone the classic shift of white voters common in much of the country outside the South, where more affluent whites move left and more downscale whites move right.  The southern part of Milwaukee County was ancestrally Democratic, filled with blue-collar whites.  Those folks moved toward the GOP while the more affluent northern part of the county has become more Democratic.

      My guess is someone who appeals to blue-collar white sentiments is needed here.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 07:38:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe it's me, but (0+ / 0-)

        I get confused about what's being discussed when we talk about Milwaukee. Is there some map guide that would help me visualize the differences between the city itself and the Circle of Ignorance, the north and south, and so on?

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:38:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just look at counties (0+ / 0-)

          I'm talking about Milwaukee County, which includes but is not limited to the City of Milwaukee.

          The surrounding counties are the Circle of Ignorance.

          And moving further westward, you quickly get to Dane County, which includes Madison and is the liberal hotbed.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:35:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Also, what's the effect of whites going Republican (0+ / 0-)

        really been? At the presidential level, the GOP hasn't gotten above 40 percent since 1984, even if they came close in 1980. So are downscale white voters leaving us really a problem?

        It's much more diverse than the state as a whole, and it's probably only gotten more so since the 1980s, but it's supposedly to be fairly segregated. Is that what's making things difficult for us at the legislative level? Or is that not a problem?

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 08:52:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MI Senate Medicaid Vote (3+ / 0-)

    It should be noted, tonight, that the Detroit Free Press went all-out in yesterdays' editorial (and one columnist) denouncing the Republicans who still ended up voting against this.  I was surprised at the anger and tone from the Free Press, since everyone else seemed to be celebrating this save for the Democrats in the senate, of course.  The Freep put in phone numbers of the opposition, and everything.  I was very happy to see them take this tone, as it was looking like the GOP was going to get away with appearing to have done something good, when in reality, they've been dicking around the inevitable for a full year, and Snyder showed the absolute minimum of leadership required.

    This may really end up being a huge campaign issue, and it's the first time I've ever imagined that maybe the Dems could retake the Senate - or at least get very close - for the first time since the early 80's.

    •  Why, is Freep normally pro-establishment? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 09:55:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Historically (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        They've been pretty left-leaning, but they've definitely gotten more centrist and deferrential to the status quo, if even just in their rhetoric.  So, it was so surprising to see them so angry through their writing at how this Medicaid expansion debacle turned out.  I expected something more praising Snyder for getting this through, because that would have been the easy editorial to write.  But they were able to finally call the situation for what it was.  That was kind of surprising.

  •  NJ Gov/Sen FDU poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Christie 50
    Buono   26

    Booker 50
    Lonegan 22

    http://www.nj.com/...

    Obviously they didn't push the leaners.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:35:11 AM PDT

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