Originally, I was going to make this diary about predictions for the 2014 Senate and House races. Then I realized that I just could not do it. It’s way too soon. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to see from the vantage point of Sept. 2013 what kind of year 2014 is going to be. For example, by this point in 2009, everyone knew the Republicans would gain seats in the House 2010, but certainly not enough to retake it, and there still seemed like a distinct possibility the Republicans would lose seats in the Senate. Conversely, no one saw the results of 1998 or 2002 coming at this point - everyone assumed the elections would tilt against the president’s party.
So, instead of predictions on individual races, I decided to rate the likelihood of five scenarios for 2014. In this diary, a wave election is defined as an election where a party captures 10 or more house seats and four or more Senate seats from the opposing party, and either wins four or more governors seats or keeps control of three-fifths or more of the total governorships seats in the country (thus accounting for years like 1934, when the Democrats already controlled so many governors offices it would have been hard for them to win more than the one they picked up – they already had 36 out of 48!)
Dem Wave
Odds: 20-1
What it would entail: Dems win control of the House, gain seats in the Senate or at least break even, and win eight to 10 governorships from the Republicans
Why it could happen: Republicans are at historical lows in popularity. If the Republicans are dumb enough to shut down the government or try to impeach the President, this outcome is quite possible.
Why it probably won’t: Republicans in general are that dumb, but their leaders probably aren’t. Also, the president’s party has never actually experienced a wave election in a midterm since 1934, and never as far as I can tell in a second term midterm. Other than a couple of PPP polls, Dems and Republicans are polling relatively close when it comes to who Americans want to control Congress, and Dems need a bigger advantage.
Dem Advantage
Odds: 4-1
What it would entail: Dems make progress in the House, but fall short of winning. (i.e. 1998). They lose 1-3 Senate seats total, possibly pick up either Georgia or Kentucky or both. Net gain of five or more governorships.
Why it could happen: This is what we’re looking at right now. Dems have been polling pretty strongly in individual races. (for example it looks like they have the advantage with the Virginia Governor's race). Republicans may nominate a bunch of loons.
Why it might not: Obama’s popularity isn’t where it needs to be right now for this to happen, and presidential popularity is usually a bigger factor in midterms than Congressional popularity. Also, the president’s party having any sort of advantage during a midterm is unusual historically – since WW2, it’s only happened in 1998 and 2002.
Purely Neutral
Odds: 5-1
What it would entail: Republicans pick up 3-4 seats in the Senate but fall short of control, House is even or Republicans pick up a couple of seats, Republicans hold their losses in the governors races to under five
Why it could happen: Obama low in popularity, but people hate the Republicans.
Why it might not: Purely neutral years in midterms are unusual. I had to go back to 1970 (where the Dems lost seats in the Senate but gained them in the House), to find one. Usually one party has the advantage, even a small one
Republican Advantage
Odds: 4-1
What it would entail: Republicans pick up five or more seats in the House, either win control of the Senate by one or gain a tie, lose only net 1-3 governorships
Why it could happen: This is what most of the pundits are predicting. It would be a mirror result of what happened in 1986, when the Dems won control of the Senate again and picked up a few seats in the House. Given where Obama’s popularity is, Republicans should have some advantage in 2014. (remember, Reagan was actually more popular in 1986)
Why it might not: In the Senate races, Republicans could chose unelectable candidates again, and the Republican brand might be too damaged by all the fall budget showdowns and loose talk of impeachment to capitalize on their expected midterm advantage. Also, they will likely be hurt with Latino votes if immigration reform fails to pass (as seems likely right now)
Republican Wave
Odds: 25-1
What it would entail – Republicans pick up the Senate by more than one vote, add 10 or more seats to their House total, net zero loss or less in governors races.
Why it could happen: Obama could make a huge mistake or suffer a scandal, Obamacare rollout could be as disastrous as Republican’s hope.
Why it probably won’t Two wave elections in two midterms in a row are very unlikely, especially after the more or less neutral (actually slight Dem Advantage) election we saw in 2012. Republican’s just aren’t popular enough to pull this off, and beyond the obvious Senate targets, it’s hard to seem them picking up any spare seats. And the governors races don’t look good at all right now.