This projection from the Washington Post is generally in line with the other media outlets counting votes. Nobody is predicting a win at this point.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Allen and Jake Sherman report that House Republicans are not inclined to back President Obama on Syria. “Several lawmakers and aides who have been canvassing support say that nearly 80 percent of the House RepublicanThe political reality is that phone calls to all members of congress are running in overwhelming opposition to the AUMF resolution. There is also a significant bloc of liberal Democrats who plan to vote no. Only the most loyal supporters of the administration are inclined to stick out their political necks for something that has no public support and very dubious prospects for a successful outcome.
Conference is, to some degree, opposed to launching strikes in Syria. Informal counts by Obama allies show that support in Congress for Obama’s plans is in the low dozens.”
House Republican leadership, meanwhile, isn’t inclined to change their members’ minds. “Speaker John Boehner’s spokesman said that he ‘expects the White House to provide answers to members’ questions and take the lead on any whipping effort.’”
So, if this trend holds over the weekend what happens on Monday? There would have to be some very dramatic events to change the wind on a trend as strong as this. Obama would be left with a choice of pressing ahead to a very embarrassing defeat or of backing down and putting the vote on hold. He of course still claims that he has the authority to launch an attack without congressional authorization, but having submitted the matter to congress he has gone a long way toward tying his own hands.