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8:17 AM PT: UT-02: Utah's 2nd congressional district is one of the House's most hopeless cases (going 29% for Obama in '12, though that's a low water mark with favorite son Mitt Romney on the ballot). So, it's more than a little surprising to find that GOP freshman Chris Stewart (who grabbed this as an open seat, after Dem Jim Matheson jumped over to the slightly-less-red UT-04 after redistricting) getting a better-than-Some Dude Democratic candidate for 2014.

State Sen. Luz Robles (from SD-01 in Salt Lake City, one of five Dems in the 29-person Senate) announced on Thursday that she'll run. First elected in 2008, she doesn't seem to be up for re-election in 2014, meaning she wouldn't have to give up her current seat for a steeply uphill House run. (Stewart defeated a former Dem state Rep. Jay Seegmiller, with 62% of the vote in '12 when this was an open seat.)

10:32 AM PT: VA-Gov: Another day, another poll with a big lead for Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor's race... and this one comes from an unlikely source, Rasmussen Reports, in what's apparently their first poll (other than their daily presidential approval tracker) since Scott Rasmussen left the firm that he founded. They find T-Mac leading Ken Cuccinelli 45-38, with 7 for "another candidate" (important, since Libertarian Robert Sarvis has been polling at about that level in polls that mention him by name) and 10 unsure. That's slightly better than their early June poll, apparently their only other poll of VA-Gov, where T-Mac led 44-41.

So, is the dawning of a new, more accurate Rasmussen? Although this poll is right in line with the most recent PPP and Quinnipiac polls (which had margins of 7 and 6 respectively), it's only one data point and too early to tell anything. However, one thing buried in the details is worth noting: they used a two-day sample (Sep. 3-4). Since Rasmussen previously only used one-day samples with no callbacks, well, at least that's progress.


11:37 AM PT: OK-Gov: Here's an intriguing possibility: the return of ex-Gov. Brad Henry, the last Democrat in Oklahoma to win... well, pretty much anything. Don't start getting your hopes up too high, though, that he'll be back for another gubernatorial run in 2014, against GOP incumbent Mary Fallin: in response to urging from local Dem power brokers that he run, he says it's "unlikely" but he won't "completely rule out the possibility."

Even if he did decide to re-emerge (and it's certainly plausible; he's only 50), there's still the question of whether he's eligible to serve again. The Oklahoma state constitution was amended in 2010, his last year in office, to limit a Governor to eight years, but he contends that wouldn't apply to him since it can't be enforced retroactively.

12:20 PM PT: VA-10: Long-time Republican Rep. Frank Wolf keeps presenting a tempting target for Democrats, in that he represents outer-ring suburbs in the Washington area that are swingy at the presidential level and rapidly getting more diverse. It's always been fools gold, though (kind of like the Republicans, and, say, New Jersey), and Wolf has won comfortably even in good Democratic years. At any rate, the Dems have their willing victim lined up for next year: attorney Richard Bolger. As Roll Call's article points out, in the event of a retirement from Wolf (not expected this cycle, but he's 74, so it's bound to happen some day), Bolger's odds would improve dramatically — but the Wolf retirement would probably also prompt a flood of other Dems higher up the food chain.

12:38 PM PT: NC-Gov: Ordinarily, it'd be way too early to start talking about the 2016 North Carolina gubernatorial race, but there's been a whole lot of chatter about it in the last few weeks... which may be a good sign, if it means that people are sensing Pat McCrory's vulnerability or at least a growing desire to turn the page. Reid Wilson (now at WaPo) looks at some of the recent Dem announcements: most prominent is AG Roy Cooper, who has toyed with us on this race many times before but is doing it again, expressing his interest and saying he'll make up his mind "relatively soon."

Also popping his head up is Raleigh-area state Sen. Josh Stein, a former deputy AG to Cooper, who's saying he'll run for whichever office (Gov. or AG) that Cooper won't run for in 2016. The other name-floater is former Raleigh mayor Charles Meeker, who says he won't decide until after the 2014 elections but is definitely interested. If any of them get in, they'd join ex-state Rep. Kenneth Spaudling, who's already unequivocally in.

12:44 PM PT: NYC mayor: If you're unfamiliar with the different neighborhoods of New York City, and the demographics and voting patterns of the people who live there, the New York Times has a helpful primer. (It's also worth looking at simply if you appreciate a well-made interactive infographic that's a cut above the usual stationary map.) It measures each neighborhood's political clout in two ways: the quantity of "prime voters" and the amount of money contributed to candidates.

12:48 PM PT: NYC comptroller: Two new ads surfaced Thursday in the New York City comptroller's race, which, with Bill de Blasio's increasing dominance in the mayoral race, has taken over as the must-watch race in the Big Apple. And fittingly, the two candidates' ads go at each other hammer and tongs: Scott Stringer's ad hits Eliot Spitzer directly for the prostitution scandal that ender Spitzer's gubernatorial tenure, while Spitzer's ad does a bit of Bloomberg tie-in, hitting Stringer for opposing term limits in 2009.

12:56 PM PT: GA-Sen: Ex-SoS (and more notoriously, ex-Komen Foundation VP) Karen Handel is the first Senate contestant to hit the airwaves in the overcrowded Republican primary field; however, it's just a radio ad, running on talk radio and country music stations in the Atlanta, Athens, and Savannah markets. It hits rivals Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey, and Paul Broun over Obamacare, not for voting for it but just for guilt-by-association, seeing as how they're federal employees and vaguely benefit from its existence.

1:07 PM PT: WI-St. Sen.: Democratic state Sen. Tim Cullen won't run for re-election in 2014 to the Wisconsin State Senate, currently controlled 18-15 by the Republicans. Cullen's departure won't really affect the calculus much; SD-15, primarily in Dem-leaning Rock County, went 62% for Obama in 2012, and Asm. Andy Jorgensen seems likely to replace him. Instead, it's a chance for a bit of an upgrade, seeing as how the often-moderate Cullen was kind of wobbly for a blue district: he was the most compromise-oriented Dem member during the 2011 fight over organized labor, and briefly left the Dem caucus in 2012 for a stint as an independent.

1:15 PM PT: WATN?: The story of Richie Farmer shows how quickly one's fortune can change. In 2011, the state's Ag Commissioner was a rising star potentially on his way to the state capitol, as the GOP's Lt. Gov. nominee. However, in 2013, he's on his way to prison instead, thanks to a Thursday plea agreement on federal charges of misappropriation of public funds. (That's on top of being divorced by his wife and badly losing that 2011 race.)

1:37 PM PT: TX redistricting: The legal saga of the Texas's House and legislative districts has gotten impenetrably difficult to follow, with different issues being considered by different courts in San Antonio and Washington DC, but there are at least two important takeaways from the order handed down by the San Antonio court on Friday. One, 2014 elections can proceed as scheduled, using the maps created by the legislature in 2013 (which changed very little from the previous maps) as interim maps.

And two, the court approved an amendment to the pleadings, apparently requested after the SCOTUS rendered Voting Rights Act sec. 5 unworkable several months ago: the plaintiffs can proceed with their request that Texas be "bailed in" to preclearance, via VRA sec. 3. (Section 3 is a previously little-used provision that allows a jurisdiction to get kicked back into the preclearance regime through a showing of discrimination; it's cumbersome, but about the only remaining piece of the VRA that still has teeth.)

1:57 PM PT: VA-Gov: Get ready for an ad per day, or more, for the stretch run in the Virginia governor's race. Today's offering is a jobs-centered one from the Terry McAuliffe camp.

3:15 PM PT: Demographics: Maybe you're tired of the whole "the Republicans can/can't win by increasing their share of the white vote instead of reaching out to non-whites vote" argument; if you aren't, please check out the new magnum opus from National Journal's demographics guru Ron Brownstein. (I'm not tired of it at all, but I certainly agree with Brownstein's assessment of it as "Talmudic," to the extent that the back-and-forth between a number of writers that I like -- Sean Trende, Alan Abramowitz, Ruy Teixeira -- keeps getting more and more self-referential and technical.)

Brownstein takes issue with the GOP's plans to double-down on white voters, not just for the already-beaten-to-death issue that the white population just keeps becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate, but also because the white electorate is changing in ways that are less hospitable to Republicans. It's becoming more college-educated, more single, and more secular. (The only way it's changing in a GOP-friendly way is that it's becoming older.) There are still a few charts in his piece that leave you wondering how the Democrats manage to win anything (especially the chart showing how badly they fare among married white persons, regardless of gender or education), but in general, it shows the demographic winds at the Democrats' backs continuing to pick up.

There are some similar themes in another fascinating demographic long read, from Wednesday in the New York Times byThomas Edsall. Edsall discusses a concept called the "Second Demographic Transition," where the shift is less about race or income and more about shared values, including "postponement of marriage, greater prevalence of cohabitation and same-sex households, postponement of parenthood, sub-replacement fertility, and a higher incidence of abortion." The places where there's more movement in that "ideational" direction are also the places where Democratic votes have increasingly been concentrated (for the most part, major metropolitan areas, though also college towns: anywhere the "creative class," per Richard Florida's phrasing, is clustered).

As an illustration of his point, check out the county-by-county map that accompanied Edsall's article. You'd swear you were looking at a map of presidential results (or maybe more accurately, a map showing the trend in presidential results from, say, 1988 to 2012), but no: you're looking at a map of "Second Demographic Transition" values from county to county. (In other words, each county's rates of indicators like same-sex households, cohabiting households, percentage of women without children in the household... somehow all condensed down into one number.)

Map of Second Demographic Transition

Combining that with Brownstein's observations about how there will be more singles and more seculars within the white population, and you can see the recipe for an even greater numbers of Democratic voters in the "creative class" parts of the nation. That's all well and good from the perspective of winning presidential elections -- but may also be a recipe for even more polarization and gridlock at the House level, given the growing cultural and economic disconnect between the blue voters clustered more and more tightly in the nation's urban areas and the increasingly-implacably-red voters spread out across the rest of the landscape.

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Comment Preferences

  •  OK-Gov: Brad Henry comeback? (13+ / 0-)

    http://m.apnews.com/...

    If he ends up seeing the light, then this would be our best get in deep red Oklahoma.

    •  Better than a sharp stick in the eye (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      How clear/unclear is Oklahoma's term limits language?

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:44:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He Could Probably Run (6+ / 0-)

        There's pretty good legal reasoning, as mentioned in the article, that he could probably run again because the law couldn't retroactively apply to him. Perhaps the most prominent example of this is Jerry Brown of California. Despite there being a strict two-term limit for life in California now, Brown served his first two terms before the new term limit was established, so he was allowed to run for Governor again and will probably hold the title of longest serving Governor of California forever unless California changes its term limit laws again. In any event, as the article also notes, the Oklahoma Supreme Court is filled with Democratic judges, particularly ones appointed by Brad Henry, so there's probably a good chance that they would back him up on this if he pursued the issue in court.

        I'm not quite certain how I feel about Henry possibly making a comeback in 2014. He's certainly accomplished a lot in Oklahoma and he's still pretty young, relatively speaking. I've generally been hopeful that he would run for one of the Senate seats if they ever became open, though it seems doubtful he could pull it off considering how red the state has become at the federal level and considering some of his policy stances, most of all the fact that he's pro-choice. I would probably prefer for him to run for Governor in 2018 when it's an open seat, but if he finds reason to believe that he has a solid chance of beating Fallin in 2014, then by all means, I think he should go for it.

        •  Coburn had pledged to serve only 2 terms, (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jorge Harris, jncca, walja, MichaelNY

          and he actually kept his 3 term pledge while in the House, so I don't see why he would renege on his current pledge. If Henry waited just two more years he could run for an open Senate seat. Against someone like Bridenstine, and with a less toxic national Democratic ticket, I would imagine Henry would at least make it a very competitive race.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:29:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Is a Senate run out of the question? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Or is that simply even harder than another run for the governor's mansion?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:17:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Federal vs state (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

        I think it would be a much tougher sell to get a seat in the senate where he would be tied to Obama. As a governor, he may have a better shot, as the Republican.legislature would be able to neuter his more liberal policies anyways. Its like some other states that have had governors at odds with the political lean, but not senators. Like Henry, Sebelius, Frudenthal, and Lingle.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:25:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, probably. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          Plus, he's still quite young, and if he was willing to run for the Senate, he could do so after Obama was out of office, maybe in 2018 or 2022, when perhaps HRC is in the White House.

          Has there been any polling on this? It'd be interesting to see where he stood now.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:28:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  If this was 1983 instead in 2013 (4+ / 0-)

        than perhaps he has a good chance to run. Last time Oklahoma elected a Democratic Senator was 1990. Oklahoma already a solid red state at the Presidential level by then. Longtime Senator David Boren left in the middle of his term, to be president at OU.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:32:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why bother when Fallin is popular? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:09:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's the better question. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        As hard as it might be to defeat Inhofe, it might be easier than trying to defeat Fallin.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:43:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Inhofe is getting pretty old (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

          and he's been in the Senate for a while, so it would be easy to tie him to an establishment that has been ineffective and divisive. Just the contrast between a 51 year old, mild-mannered popular former Governor, and an 80 year rabble-rouser from the far-right of the Senate would be an interesting contrast. It would be an interesting race, though Henry would likely need a substantial national Democratic headwind in order to win.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:33:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's why it might be better to wait until 2020, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            probably. He'd be really hold by then, if nothing else.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:29:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Would Henry run for the House? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Or is that too much of a step down? If it looks like he could win us a seat, that'd be a pretty big deal.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:45:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yea, doesn't make sense (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY, jncca

        Henry, like Dave Fruedenthal in Wyoming might be uber popular, but in the end they are Democrats in extremely red states and would need the right circumstances to win again.

        For Henry that would be 2018, not 2014 against a popular Fallin.

        32/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

        by Socks The Cat on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:08:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  VT-GOV: VT Progs considering challenge to gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY
    The Vermont Progressive Party isn’t champing at the bit to make a run for the governor’s seat in 2014, but party leaders say their displeasure with Gov. Peter Shumlin might leave them no choice.
    http://vtdigger.org/...
    •  More on the VT Progressive Party (5+ / 0-)
      In 1981, Bernie Sanders (now Vermont’s junior Senator) was elected mayor of Burlington, beating a conservative “old boy” Democrat. Bernie brought the best and the brightest into City Hall and implemented many reforms that were simply modern good government. He empowered a range of citizens to have a direct voice in city government: from students, to the poor, to the elderly.
      http://www.progressiveparty.org/...
    •  Am I the only one (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JohnnyBoston, KingofSpades, gabjoh

      Who found the section where they state the progressive party will max out at 3-7% in future elections a bit premature.  

      I mean I know third parties come and go in many states but in a liberal state when the challenge an incumbent Dem from the left I don't know that I'd write them off so early on...especially without an announced candidate.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:22:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can't understand what they view him doing wrong (4+ / 0-)

      it's mostly just innuendo and abstract concern (notably they doubt his dedication and supposed lack of commitment to certain causes).  The only actual policy issue that he's not being liberal about is developmental disability programs and remaking the tax code.  Other than that, I'm really puzzled by their angst.  Is there something I'm missing?

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:58:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I remember Doug Tuttle saying (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, JohnnyBoston, MichaelNY

        that the VT Republican party ranged from conservative to Rockefeller Republican, the VT Dems ranging from centrists to progressives, and the VT Progs ranging from progressives to full-on socialists.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:09:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This link (4+ / 0-)

        has a pretty good summary of some of the issues he's having with the legislature, although as I said yesterday, I'm not sure whether to be amused that the who guy is simply proposing what appears to be a cut in the growth of the state match (!) of the federal EITC to roll back into child care subsidies (!) is now towards the center of Vermont or jealous that Vermont has a serious legislature.

        And as far as taxes in general go, I'm really not sure what the big deal is. The state doesn't appear to be in some sort of horrible fiscal shape.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:30:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  UT-Dems: shoutout to Gygaxian! (11+ / 0-)

    Not strictly related to a particular election, but I got the UT Democratic party's monthly newsletter yesterday.

    If most of you saw these newsletters you'd cringe, the party is ran by incorrigible optimists who believe that UT is on the verge of going purple due to (select one of the following) influx of hispanics/mormons mass party switching/entire state Republican party getting brought down in corruption scandal.

    Anyways, in that vein they got a sage bit of advice from Nina Turner at a DNC meeting, which I can't help but think they misinterpreted. The newsletter prominently features a quote from her: "If your hair is on fire, act like your hair is on fire!" Admittedly I don't know the exact context it was said, but the newsletter makes is sound an awful lot like that quote was about the state of the UT Dem party. Party Chair Jim Dabakis seems blissfully ignorant of that though, thinking it's about the state of UT or something.

    They also have a very ambitious plan for registering 40,000 voters, which I would be more interested in if they had any history of following through on their ambitious plans.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:08:26 AM PDT

    •  Utah Dems are in a unique position (5+ / 0-)

      of having something like 75-80 percent of potential voters in the Wasatch Front. I'm trying to find an exact estimate of how big its inhabitable areas are, but that's proving tough. But if you take the four counties that make up the area--Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Weber, and Box Elder--you'll see that, in total, this  area is 9,338 square miles in land (737, 1,998, 304, 576, 5,723 for each county's land, respectively). That's pretty big--about 10 Rhode Islands, as far as land goes, although some of that land area has mountains.

      More specifically, a good chunk of the population lives between Ogden and Provo, which are about 80 miles apart. In general, even in the densest part of the state, the densest parts of this area are about twice as dense as everything else, as you can see here. This definitely applies to the most Democratic counties in the state, relatively speaking.

      The point I am trying to make is that, while Utah is a fairly large state, it's population is clustered, in the c. Any sort of registering or mobilization of voters, now or in the future, is definitely easier because of this. The voters need to be open to our pitch, but it's not like we're trying to do the same in one of the Dakotas.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:16:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I should also add that these counties are (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, MichaelNY

        all experiencing pretty solid population growth. It's not all that clear how many of these people are able to be registered and/or mobilized compared to people that have been there for a while, but perhaps it's easier than doing it in other places.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:50:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Good summary, though to be specific (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY

        It looks like the Utah Dems are going to focus on Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, and Weber counties, with the opportunities for greatest growth in Weber (Ogden, the "capitol" of the county, has a massively growing Latino population), and Salt Lake. So that cuts down on the area we need to cover considerably.

        One thing we need to work on is GOTV in municipal elections (which is where we get our best legislative candidates and a good deal of future voters). In West Valley, a city of 130,000, the top two candidates for a city council primary was decided by 13 votes.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:43:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  County seat (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, jncca, gabjoh

          I think that's the term you're looking for. As far as I know, counties have neither capitals nor capitols, unless they happen to include the state capital.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:58:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, I was going to put that (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gabjoh

            But for some reason I couldn't remember if other states were familiar with that term, even though I now perfectly remember you guys talking about it. Oh well.

            The point is that we did terribly in this years municipal primaries, and so we cut down on our number of potential legislative or eventual statewide candidates. And it's mostly because we didn't GOTV. Also because we had multiple Democrats in a lot of races, but still...

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:47:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for the shout-out, here's my thoughts (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      propjoe, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      1. Yeah, Dabakis has been a cheerleader for the party for years (he's had a left-leaning radio show since the 90s), and he's an unflappable optimist. However, he's also made a lot of missteps recently (most of which are his fault), so he may get replaced within a couple of years. His optimism is really grating, to be honest. At least it's better than the bitter angry pessimists though.

      2. Yeah, the "Utah will turn purple" crowd are way too optimistic, but the Utah Dems did provide some numbers: There's 307,000 unregistered eligible voters in Utah, 64% of which are supposedly Democratic. According to the Utah Dems, there are 59,362 unregistered likely Democratic voters in Salt Lake County, and specifically 37,824 in Matheson's district.

      2a. According to this snail mail newsletter I got, Weber County would have voted for Obama if we would have gotten out the vote.

      2b. Four Utah house districts were won and lost by fewer than 500 votes (I actually checked the numbers and can confirm this), and eight by fewer than 1,000 votes.

      2c. They said that in all states, voting by mail increases voter participation by 10-12%, and that the early vote in all states (including Utah) leaned Democratic.

      3. I went to the events with Howard Dean, and he seemed confident that Utah Dems could register 40,000 new voters out of the 307,000 unregistered voters. He said he'd bring some of the resources of DfA over to Utah, for what that's worth. I honestly think we'll be able to get the 40,000 by 2014. Excitement over Luz Roble's candidacy may help with that. The Utah Dems don't have any grand history of following through on large projects, but lets be honest; even getting 20,000 votes would help.

      4. More than half the population in the state lives in the Wasatch Front, so at least they'll be easy to contact.

      5. Don't underestimate the corruption scandals; at least in the case of the state AG, there's a very good chance he'll either go down in flames late enough that our enormously popular SLCO District Attorney Sim Gill could have a good chance at taking the AG's office. State Attorney General was the last statewide office Democrats held in any case.

      6. Regarding UT-02, it won't be hard to do worse than poor Jay Seegmiller did in 2012, as he only got 33% and only raised $33,000. From what I hear from Democratic activists, he only barely tried. So if Luz Robles tries at all (and she's intending to raise 1 million dollars), then she'll get a much better result. People already know and like her in Salt Lake City, where most of the population in the district is and where she's held her state senate district. My gut feeling is that she'll at least hit low 40s, especially since Chris Stewart is not well liked.

      7. A final comment on Jim Dabakis; he's an odd duck, because he's part of the particular part of Salt Lake City which cares only for LGBT issues and essentially goes "screw the rest of the state", but he's desperately trying to appeal to Mormon voters, while at the same time being state senator of that particular area. I don't think he has the right know-how to permanently bring over many Mormon Dems, but he could probably pull it off temporarily.

      8. Utah's opposing party chairpersons are a black guy on the GOP and a gay man on the Democratic side. Neither of which are Mormon. Now who has the least diverse state?!? Haha.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:31:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Frank Wolf gets a Dem challenger (4+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    This is such a winnable seat, but the RollCall article is correct; he has been very hard to knock off. Let's just hope he retires...

    Is Bolger just a "some dude" candidate?

    •  The John Warner of the House. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades

      When it comes to VA anyway.  He's not moderate like Warner was, but he's been there so long that people vote for him out of pure loyalty.  I don't think we win this one until he retires.

    •  I'm not entirely sure a Dem could win VA-10 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      even if it were open. They drew the district to be as unfriendly to downballot Dems as possible - Obama lost the Fairfax portion of the district, and Loudoun, as I've mentioned innumerable times, is an uphill slog for anyone below statewide office. And there's no bench of note in the district, especially if Mark Herring is elected AG.

      •  If Dick Black runs here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and if Wolf retires in a Presidential year, we can pick it up.  That's dependent on continuing to keep the blue trend in Loudon and Fairfax County.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:01:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We don't need Dick Black to run against (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          We can beat Generic R here.  I live here, I know it pretty well.  It's tossup/tilt R like I said in my other comment, but that's as bad as it gets.  And like the state overall, the demographics are very slowly trending our way.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:52:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  You're wrong about that, it's winnable... (3+ / 0-)

        ...as an open seat.  I'd say a Generic D vs. Generic R race would be tossup/tilt R.  So yes, a thumb on the scale for the GOP, but no more than that.

        "No bench" also is wrong, plenty enough is in Fairfax County to draw from people where I live.  Most Fairfax electeds are Dems.  And you don't need a downballot elected official for a U.S. House race, it's routine for people to win these elections as their first elected office, including often against downballot electeds.  Voters don't give "successful person with great resume and life experience" less weight than "some state legislator or county elected I've never heard of or seen on my ballot."  Downballot electeds can't even claim a name rec advantage outside their little district, and not always even there.

        Loudoun is not an uphill slog at all in federal races.  They have local problems, but in a federal cycle a Democrat can do well there.  Kaine beat Allen in the 10th overall and won Loudoun 53-47, a 9,000-raw vote margin.  That's a pretty good Generic D vs. Generic R matchup, both had comparable favorables and comparable resumes (and Allen seemed untarnished with white voters from his 2006 revelations and defeat).

        I feel great about our chances of picking up the seat whenever Wolf retires.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:51:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Tom Perriello (3+ / 0-)

        won in VA-5 (a notably more conservative district, except in the Charlottesville area) despite having no elected office experience, so I don't think he was widely considered as part of the Democratic "bench" prior to victory.

        Dems aren't beating Wolf, but if open the seat could well be winnable, and not necessarily with an officeholder.  Especially given the possibility the GOP might choose unwisely with a Bible-thumper or immigrant-basher, it would definitely be worthy of serious attention then.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:18:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Might be DCCC (0+ / 0-)

      I saw his name on a random DCCC petition/fundraising vehicle someone sent me a few weeks back, so it might be a good sign.

  •  VA Gov Rasmussen: TMac 45-38 (14+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:59:58 AM PDT

  •  PA-9 (4+ / 0-)

    Rep. Bill Shuster has started a dedicated Twitter and Facebook page for "fact-checking" his primary opponent, RedState-endorsed Art Halvorson.  At 36% Obama, any action in this district will be here but things could get interesting for fans of cat fud.

    https://www.facebook.com/...

  •  KY: Richie Farmer pleads guilty, will face jail: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    http://dailyindependent.com/...
    He will have to foot $120K (he misused $450K in public funds) and will be in jail for 21-27 months.  If he didn't reach this plea deal, he was looking at 10 years of prison and at least $700K owed.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:39:14 AM PDT

    •  Still a shame they didn't uncover this all in 2011 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, ehstronghold, MichaelNY

      The Williams-Farmer ticket would have faced a Peppy Martin 1999 style loss (where Dem Paul Patton won almost every county in the state, even the solid Republican ones in the south-central part of the state).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:40:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What happened to Peppy Martin? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, KingofSpades

        Ah, and just imagine the alternative history. Had Patton not fallen into disgrace, Ben Chandler would have won in 2003, and Patton would have gone on to challenge Bunning as was his plan, and given how much Bunning imploded running against an obscure state senator from rural East Kentucky, there's little doubt in my mind Patton would have won by high single digits.

        Chandler, as a two term governor, runs for the open Senate seat in 2010 and perhaps manages to eke out a victory over Paul.

        It's kind of like imagining "What if Sebelius had run against Pat Roberts in 2008?" "Napalitano against McCain in 2010 (having never served in Obama's cabinet), or against Flake in 2012.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:39:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Richie Farmer was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      the real empty suit if Kentucky politics. I heard him speak several times at Fancy Farm, and I started thinking how this guy graduated from high school, let alone college (if that is what you want to call UK- the joke is always that they have the best players money can buy). But he was part of the group known as the Unforgetables, and he cruised in 2003, when Ernie Fletcher was a plus, then got the other David Williams in 2007. I wonder if his jersey will still hang in Rupp Arena after this?

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:08:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They'll hire someone (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        to add on an asterisk to his jersey, I hope. lol

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:00:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  love Farmer's attorney's name (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Guthrie True!

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 04:24:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Do we expect any impact on the midterms... (5+ / 0-)

    From this crazy congressional fall? It looks like the House (and possibly the Senate) will vote down a military intervention in Syria; I'm on the fence as to how much that will hurt the president's clout, but it definitely won't do him many favors. Some Republicans have already suggested making support for striking Syria conditional upon Democrats agreeing to roll back sequestration (presumably replacing it with lots of even more draconian cuts to essential services and benefits), but the likely scenario at this point looks like a showdown over the debt ceiling and/or a continuing resolution. Oh, and there's still immigration reform to deal with, although I'd be surprised if the House seriously considers it.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:51:13 AM PDT

    •  Who the hell knows at this point? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, James Allen, MichaelNY, askew

      All sorts of crazy stuff is happening... I think it's impossible to predict this far out...

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:57:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only two things are certain: (12+ / 0-)

        whatever happens is definitely good news for John McCain, and the Democrats are in disarray. I'm sure that if the Democrats managed to get the entire Republican caucus drunk and to agree to implement a single payer system, the Democrats would still be in disarray because some random Democratic representative of Nobody Gives a Fuck isn't happy that the legislation entailed only $10 million of subsidies for the Nobody Gives a Fuck Center for Juggling, Rhythm, and Interpretative Dance instead of $10.5 million.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:10:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Even when Democrats are mostly united on this (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          And when McCain goes out on a limb. Yup.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:14:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In all seriousness, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, Skaje

            some really good news for McCain would be if he wins at online poker. Last I heard, the bad beats from Jennifer Tilly's online moniker were spanking him real hard.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:17:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hey LordMike, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              if I ever try my hand at stand up comedy (and I might have to, considering I just got rejected last week by the company that I thought I had a great shot with), I'm going to hire you to rev up the audience. You seem to laugh at all of my comments, no matter how weak.

              Just tell me what you like to drink and I'll be sure it's available.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:30:50 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Why thanks, BJ... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bjssp, SaoMagnifico

                I'm just a generous tipper is all... :-)  A buddy of mine has really turned me on to Canadian whiskey and ginger ale. It's sometimes hard to find that in a bar, so check with the barkeep... ;-)

                Everyone enjoying themselves tonight?  Keep those drink orders rolling in.  the DKE Comedy Club--the only place where the beer glasses are larger than the pitchers.  Alright, let's give it up for our headliner, tonight... He's been a regular at the DKE Comedy club for awhile, andhe's been a big hit.  So, let's give a big welcome to Bjssp!!!!

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:41:11 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Off topic, but this (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  seems like it'd be right up your alley. The fact that Larry Charles, who was behind some of the earlier, dark, but absurdly awesome "Seinfeld" episodes among many other things, is directing just makes it that much better.

                  "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                  by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:46:46 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  If you know anything (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                About C# or SQL programming, I may just give you my job because my end users are driving me insane.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:40:21 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see why any Democrats would agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      to rolling back sequestration for that reason. I doubt most of them are on board for Syria in any significant sense, and that's assuming they aren't actively against it.

      I guess they could feel the pressure over the ceiling, but why try to deal? Just insist, loudly, that you won't go for anything but a clean vote, and then sit tight. It's one thing to deal over some something big, but Syria?

      I'm struggling to think of how this is the defining moment for his presidency. I've seen lots of suggestions about that. First Read, for instance, say it's a political crisis, although it's not clear how. Not to downplay the slaughter, but it's in Syria.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:01:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the GOP is being silly with that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY

        Dems care about budget cuts. No one cares about Syria.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:51:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You could argue that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          there's some sort of benefit (mostly over the longer term to any of the pretty crappy deals that Republicans have proposed in recent years, but I'm really struggling to see how a deal that involves action in Syria and sequestration gives them anything at all.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:55:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Ain't that the truth (6+ / 0-)

          The fact that an issue like Syria hasn't yet gotten one warning about wading into policy in the Live Digest tells you that exact fact...no one cares about Syria.  No one is basing their vote in 2014 based on how their congressman/woman votes on this resolution.  

          Now of course polls will show (wrongly) that its an issue impacting voters to some degree...then again polls show that half of Louisiana blames Napolean Bonaparte for Katrina response.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:23:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  "No one cares about Syria" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          So, so painfully true, as has become dramatically apparent over the past three weeks...

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:54:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  There's this hysteria First Read: (7+ / 0-)
      If the Obama administration loses, many might not realize the full-fledged political crisis the president will face. His congressional opposition will be more emboldened, if that was possible. (Any advantage the Democrats hold in the upcoming fiscal fights ahead could quickly disappear.) A year before the 2014 midterms, Democrats will start hitting the panic button with a wounded Democratic president in office. (If you’ve paid attention to politics over the past two decades, when the going gets tough, Democrats often jump ship.) And any lame-duck status for Obama would be expedited. (After all, a “no” vote by Congress would rebuke the nation’s commander-in-chief.) Up until now, the first nine months of Obama’s second term have been, well, a disappointment. Gun control was stopped in the Senate; immigration reform is stalled in the House; no progress has been achieved in the budget talks. So if you throw in Congress rebuking the president from taking military action in Syria -- something he has said is necessary -- that would be a huge political blow to Obama’s political standing.
      That seems like a truly horrible situation brought on by...nothing at all. To me, it's like First Read is descriibing one of those Direct TV commercials where the guy has cable, becomes a ninja, and then falls through a ceiling trying to fight crime, before ending up in jail, or something.

      What are Democrats going to jump ship over? Anything truly insane will never anywhere in the Senate, and even if they managed to pass something shitty, he can veto it. He's still the President until 2016, and even if 2014 is really bad for us, we're not going to end up in a situation where they have the necessary votes to override him.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:05:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Woe betied Assad is emboldened (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        The primacy of Congress had already been reasserted long before this. And that was inevitable after the Bush years.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:10:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I saw that (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GReen4994, LordMike, Skaje, MichaelNY

        Struck me as way off. Every president has suffered setbacks from his own party. FDR's court-packing scheme got shoved back in his face. Reagan had several vetoes overridden in the last two years of his time in office, including a highway bill where he personally begged Republican senators to sustain the veto. They didn't. But in both cases, it didn't mark the "end" of their presidencies, as FDR went on to save the world from fascism, and Reagan still managed to be effective in the areas he most cared about, like supporting murderous anticommunist militias who killed more people than the people they were fighting.

        Obama clearly misread the political situation wrt Syria. It amazes me he could have assumed he'd be free to pursue a liberal hawk agenda after staking out an initial identity as the anti-war candidate, that that wouldn't be an obstacle. He misread the public, though he's never shown a great aptitude for understanding the public mood to be fair. He further made mistakes by having Kerry and Hagel up the fearmongering in a way that was so overwrought and made no sense given the stated goal of lobbing a few missiles somewhere for some reason that everyone saw through it, by adopting a McCain/Graham first sales pitch, a belligerent first response, etc. Having said all that, political capital is a pretty silly concept. When it comes time for a debt ceiling standoff, Democrats will rally to Obama's side, unless he tries to give away the store again. Each day is different. People who talk about "lame duck" stuff are ignorant.

        •  Well, he can always attack (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY

          if he really, really wants to. Not that this is likely, but I guess it's an option.

          But more likely, it's not as if this is the only chance they have to vote on this, right? If the situation gets quite a bit worse, which doesn't seem all that hard to imagine, the impetus for action is much greater.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:34:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think if he does... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Speaker Boehner won't be able to stop the rank-and-file from filing articles of impeachment. In fact, I think many House Republicans intending to vote "no" are hoping President Obama will attack Syria anyway so they can say, "See! He's going against Congress, which is clearly unconstitutional! Impeach him!"

            Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:56:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Some Democrats would actually support (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              his impeachment in a scenario in which he directly violated the will of Congress and attacked a country.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:02:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, okiedem

                I wouldn't, but I both take a broad view of executive power and support military intervention in Syria, which I guess makes me a bad Democrat these days? IDK.

                Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:07:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It most certainly does not (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  okiedem, SaoMagnifico

                  Have you seen Michael Tomasky's latest at Daily Beast? I read it and thought of you. There are logical and genuine arguments to be made on all sides of this situation. Unfortunately for the president and the people in the line of fire in Syria you and I are clearly in the minority.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:27:24 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Same boat - also have to say this hurts Obama (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                    if not so much domestically, definitely abroad. While I don't think his impending defeat in this vote will have much effect on the budget and debt ceiling negotiations I think it will be pretty catastrophic for his ability to represent the country's interests abroad. While this is bad enough on its own it seems the worst part of this will be that it makes an Israel-Iran war much more likely (paradoxically likely involving a much more active role for the US than would the limited strike in Syria).

                    27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:35:39 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Yep (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico
                    Unfortunately for the president and the people in the line of fire in Syria you and I are clearly in the minority.
                    And I.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:49:08 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  you don't need a broad view of executive power (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  SaoMagnifico, jncca

                  to think the president doesn't at least initially need Congress to give him permission.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:34:47 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I dont think he misread the situation or (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

          the public.

          Quite the opposite. I think it looked like they were going to strike without a congressional vote, and he realized that would be a bad idea, given polling showed around 80% wanted a vote.

          If he loses the vote, it will definitely be a loss for the president, no sugarcoating it.

          But I dont know how much it really affects his domestic standing or his legislative agenda.  

          The Syria strike is unpopular politically, which isnt a reason not to do it. But is his approval rate going to fall as a result? I doubt it.

          And as far as a legislative agenda, immigration reform really depends on the House GOP at this point, not Dems. A Syria loss could have some effect on budget negotiations, but I think that is a completely different issue.

          •  That's one thing that never makes any (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY

            sense: why is he going to suffer if the House votes down something that is politically unpopular? It seems like a stretch to say that the public will reward the Republicans in some way for doing what is already broadly popular, and it should be clear to anyone who isn't quite fickle that they'd vote down anything he says he's behind.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:40:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right, the main effect I could see (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              is that possibly it's hard to bring Dems on board for a budget deal. But to be in a position to get Dems on board, the WH and GOP will have to have struck a deal, and that doesnt look like it was happening anyway.

              And Dems arent the issue with CIR.

              And those are really the only two major legislative priorities for Obama. Climate Change is going to be done through regulation. Obamacare is mostly about implementation.

          •  I guess we can thank Bush (11+ / 0-)

            for making an entire generation of Americans cynical, anti-humanitarian interventionists.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:42:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  GW Bush's coalition is the big loser here... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, MichaelNY

              The evangelicals are not welcome in public campaigns by the GOP anymore (even though they still get what they want from the party as a whole).  They've been forced out of GOP messaging campaigns.  Now, the neocons are officially persona non grata with the public, too.  I suspect they'll be official relegated to the GOP closet like their evangelical friends soon enough.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:57:42 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't necessarily agree (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, LordMike, ArkDem14, jncca

                Perhaps the most touted Republican candidate for Senate of this entire cycle is Rep. Tom Cotton, who is an evangelical neoconservative.

                The most touted Republican candidate for Senate in 2010, now-Sen. Marco Rubio, is...drumroll please...an evangelical neoconservative.

                Libertarianism -- or more accurately Paulism, which is basically evangelical libertarianism/anarcho-syndicalism ("small government", but socially conservative and anti-secular) -- has become a much stronger force in the Republican Party than it used to, but I often think that's more a function of having a Democratic president (isn't hating the very idea of government a convenient way to justify obstructing and opposing him at every turn?) and will quickly fade back to the fringes as soon as a Republican wins the White House.

                Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:06:01 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  And that was what a lot of people who opposed (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Iraq back in 2002/2003 said. That if the war didnt turn out well, it would hurt a future presidenti's ability to ever use a military response again, even when it's necessary, because the American wouldnt be so trusting.

              It's obviously debatable whether we should use force here, but the trust an the war weariness is definitely there.

            •  I understand that sentiment (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, JGibson

              We invaded Iraq when I was 16 years old, before my political sentiments had really solidified.  At the time, with my basic understanding of politics and foreign policy, I bought into this idea that Saddam Hussein was "bad" and we should do something about it.  One year later, I had turned against the war.  The resulting decade-long involvements in both Iraq and Afghanistan cemented my beliefs.  I promised myself I would never again get swayed into supporting a non-defensive attack on another country.  I think a lot of other people did too.

              •  The problem with the Iraq precedent (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

                is the reasons for that were entirely fictional.  If Sadaam just had used chemical weapons on the Kurds, and Bush said that civilized people can't tolerate that, we would look at the whole situation differently.

                Politically this is a much more clear issue: will the nation support/resist/shrug over taking missile action against one of the most entrenched dictatorships in the world?

                Iraq is not an historical precedent for that.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:40:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  No kidding (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              We are all living with the scars of the Iraq War. (Oh, and still not really giving a shit about people living with the actual scars, physical and psychological, of the Iraq War, judging by our depressingly shitty VA healthcare system and generally wrongheaded approach to mental health in this country.)

              Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:58:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Carville pinned it on Bush (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, KingofSpades, kleinburger

                O'Reilly rolled his eyes. But damn truth it is. Republicans would be falling over themselves to vote for this is Bush was proposing it. At least Democrats are consistent with their concerns whoever the CIC happens to be.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:54:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Syria has ZERO affect on budget (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, jj32, bythesea, MichaelNY

            They are completely independent.  Leverage is unchanged.  Politics are unchanged.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 11:02:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  First Read has gone downhill recently (7+ / 0-)

        They really used to be good at resisting the Beltway echo chamber, but they've gone off the rails now.

        The Syria vote affects nothing else at all.  Everything else that's on the table is driven entirely by its own politics.  Appropriations, the debt ceiling, and sequestration are bundled together as their own issue with a long-predictable outcome, which is that sequestration is retained as in current law for another year; the debt ceiling is raised for a year; and appropriations are continued in FY14 at FY13 levels.  If anything different from that happens, it will be slightly to Democrats' favor, not the GOP's favor.

        Immigration, too, succeeds or fails under its own political incentives for the House GOP.

        All that really matters is that Obama isn't pushing anything unpopular except Syria, and even on Syria either the waters calm from no action, or they calm later if Obama ends up bombing but there are no U.S. casualties.

        One thing I've learned is to remember what most people seem to remember and forget about past political battles.  That helps toward understand how important so much in the news isn't.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 11:01:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with the other responses (6+ / 0-)

        and I'll just add that I truly do despise the beltway mentality on stuff like this.  The Syria vote isn't some magical thing that, if Obama "wins" it, makes Democrats stronger and Republicans wilt under the pressure and just pass whatever the president wants.  Alternately, if Obama "loses" it, Republicans don't suddenly get any more obstinate than they already are.  The past three years of Congress should have clued people in to the kind of resistance Republicans will offer.  It's a resistance that has held steadily predictable despite beltway punditry asserting they would moderate themselves after Obama's re-election, and it will hold steadily predictable despite beltway punditry asserting they will get "emboldened" if the Syria resolution is defeated.

        I'm so tired of reading "analysis" that talks about things being "blows to (politician)", rather than the actual implications of the policy.  It's really not analysis at all, and it made #1 on one of my favorite political articles: 5 ways to spot a bullshit political story.  (The others are if it mentions "gaffe", if the headline ends in a question mark, if the headline is about a politician "blasting" something, and if it's about some down-in-the-weeds local legislator/mayor/city councilor/county executive saying something dumb (there's thousands of them, and dumb things are said everyday)).

    •  I would think it makes debt ceiling negotiation (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY

      Even less likely. But he has an national address Tuesday night which suggests it isn't over. Don't underestimate how much Boehner has hurt himself either.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:06:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I dont know how much we can (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      read into the Syria vote.

      I mean, it wouldnt be great for him to lose it, but is he really going to be seriously affected politically because he didnt win on an unpopular vote? I dont know.

    •  probably not (6+ / 0-)

      Syria won't matter unless Americans get killed. Most voters view foreign policy like this: killing Al Qaeda is good, American casualties are unacceptable, everything else is utterly irrelevant.

      The shutdown/debt ceiling stuff won't matter because the GOP ultimately won't do it. It would hurt them politically. Backing down won't hurt the GOP because the only people it would upset are the hardcore tea party types who will show up and vote GOP under any circumstances. At most it might affect the primaries.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:50:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not sure it will get voted down (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, itskevin, MichaelNY, askew

      Canton and Boehner both seem to be behind it, as do a lot of the powerful mainstream conservatives and even some chief Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:41:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Washington Post (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is trying to keep track of the vote on this, and they seem to have a majority of the House leaning no (although only 106 have said they will vote no for sure).  Only 25 have indicated they will vote yes so far.  Unless leadership really whips this vote, it is looking like it will fail by a solid margin.  The Senate is closer (15 against, 10 leaning no, 23 in favor), but if it has to pass with 60 votes, it's also looking tough.

        Interesting political coalitions here.  I'm not even seeing the clear correlations of the NSA vote, though elements of it are there...Amash and Grayson are among the loudest no votes.  But a bunch of conservative Democrats are also opposing (Peterson, Matheson, Schrader), as are mainstream Republicans like Gibson, Lance, and Stivers.

      •  Boehner/Cantor won't whip (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        And their influence is limited in any event.

        It's unclear how active Pelosi is in trying to whip, I hear conflicting things. However, while Pelosi is a talented legislative leader, she can't change the macro factors, or the concentration of interests in the House.

        At this point the amount of Republicans supporting it in the House is a whopping eight. Not looking good.

        •  Not looking good at all (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          As I said last Saturday, I think kicking this over to Congress effectively doomed it. I hope I'm wrong in what I think that communicates to Assad and the world.

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:09:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But was that the actual intent? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            No doubt if Assad strikes again the Republicans will be straight to the cameras to apportion blame directly at the White House.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 04:03:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  And the thing is, (0+ / 0-)

              Assad will strike again if his anticipations that U.S. political division and hyperbolic threats from Iran and Hezbollah can push Congress to deny the President approval for an action he has already committed to.

              Do we need to wait until the country known as Syria totally collapses into sectarian warfare? Until it becomes a massive humanitarian disaster and the moderate factions are completely dwarfed by radicals and there's no long any chance to help a reasonable, pro-democracy ideology win?

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:43:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Another investigation involving Michele Bachmann (6+ / 0-)

    This one includes her husband.

    The latest is a federal inquiry into whether an outside “super PAC” improperly coordinated strategy with Mrs. Bachmann’s campaign staff, including her husband, in violation of election laws.

    Looks like the inquiry stems from a complaint by a former Bachmann staffer.

    link

  •  PA-13: Val Arkoosh intro video (5+ / 0-)

    (As most here know, I'm on Team Daylin, but I've met and like Val, and figured folks would be interested in this.)

    •  reasonably good ad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Thanks for posting that.

      I rolled my eyes over the chocolate chip cookies bit, and I'm getting might tired of the meme about "joining the conversation," which is hackneyed now in my profession (libraries) as well as in political jargon.

      Seems like PA-13 is lucky to have several good candidates to choose from. Wish some other districts could share similar wealth of talented & qualified candidates.  

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:52:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I thought this was too long and boring (0+ / 0-)

      And I hope she is less soft-spoken in speeches and debates. I think she is authoritative, but she doesn't sound it to me.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:48:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Congressional Obscure Caucus (4+ / 0-)

    Roll Call has a list of the obscure House members.  As they point out, being on this list isn't necessarily a bad thing: these members are often able to get things done and are pretty safe for reelection.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:14:45 AM PDT

    •  Ander Crenshaw and Sam Farr are still (4+ / 0-)

      #1 in my book for "most generic."

      To which many of you are probably saying, "who?" and yes, that's the point :P

    •  Corinne Brown should be on the list (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, BKGyptian89, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      She's essentially done nothing in her long tenure in Congress.  Even worse she supports FL GOP gerrymanders so long as she gets to keep her absurdly drawn district that gobbles up just abount every minority heavy precinct from north to central Florida.

      Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

      by ChadmanFL on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 11:26:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I CAN'T STAND HER (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And that reason you mention about her supporting the GOP gerrymanders in Florida. Her and Mario Diaz-Balart were trying to sue the fair amendment law in court. She knows damn well when that case that is still pending in court is ruled upon, that atrocious and unconstitutional JAX-ORL snake of a district will be dismantled.

        And when it does, I hope she gets challenge. Hopefully by Alvin Brown, or some Dem state legislature from Duval.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:16:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, lets go from a progressive Democrat (0+ / 0-)

          to a conservative Democrat. I'll be damned if almost every single congressperson wouldn't fight to protect their district.

          •  Ideally (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ndrwmls10, MichaelNY, jncca, gabjoh

            we could wrangle two Dem seats out of Corrine Brown's.  It is uncertain though, with Republicans still generally able to do whatever they want in Florida.

          •  so you support Democrats who support GOP manders (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Just so they have a super duper D district, and not being a team player at all. Regardless if her district get dismantled, it will be a D district.

            SHE HAS A UNCONSTITUTIONAL DISTRICT. For some reason you can't get that through your skull. Redrawing the 5th distrct as it should be l, and will gains us 2 more districts in Central Florida. If she can't win a primary then that's her fault.

            Lol I'm not surprised at all. If she wasn't a female, you probably wouldn't give a damn about what I wrote.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:16:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Some people keep saying this (0+ / 0-)
              Lol I'm not surprised at all. If she wasn't a female, you probably wouldn't give a damn about what I wrote.
              Like it shames me in some way.
              •  Cause whenever somebody says something (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, gabjoh

                critical or bad about a female Dem, your'e the first one to say something. So like I said, I'm not surprised.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:34:26 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I apologize ndrwmls10 (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje, ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

                For lashing out at you like that. But I don't know why you would support somebody like Brown is beyond me. Even if you think she's good on the policies, she's bad when it comes to looking out for homestate Dems, just so she can keep her district the way it is.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:46:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Corrine Brown (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, ndrwmls10, Stephen Wolf

                  has about as much influence over the Florida congressional map as I do.  Exactly 100% of that power is shared among the Florida legislature, the Florida governor (through veto power), and state and federal courts that handle redistricting-related lawsuits.  I never understood why people get so angry about representatives' positions on the gerrymanders.  It's not like their opposition can stop a gerrymander from happening (people on DKE gave Donna Edwards so much shit over her opposition to the Maryland map, even though it passed anyway over her objections).

                  As long as the courts continue to turn a blind eye to FL-05, there's nothing stopping Republicans from packing Democrats in there.  Corrine Brown could loudly join our calls for breaking up her seat, but would Republicans oblige?  No.

                •  Thank you, I appreciate it. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I don't agree with what she did, but it's not as if it's some shocking or uncommon thing. I understand why she did it.

              •  Some of us believe it should (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                Because we think it's not justifiable and actually somewhat abhorrent to support people only on account of their sex.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:51:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  If that was the case, I would support every single (0+ / 0-)

                  Republican woman and I wouldn't have been the most vocal on Tulsi Gabbard in the beginning. I wish people would get their facts straight.

                •  I don't find anything wrong with supporting (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, gabjoh

                  reasonably progressive Democratic woman when applicable, even if their are somewhat more progressive men in the picture. I find it abhorrent that woman only make up 20% of Congress. I find it abhorrent that there are still many barriers in the way, especially for women of color. I will never be ashamed of what I believe.

                  •  I hope you answer my other question (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    A lot of us would be happy to vote for the member of the underrepresented class (blacks, Hispanics, women, etc.), all things being more or less equal. But, for example, I will not vote for Quinn against De Blasio, because I consider a whole host of his positions (including support for the 4th-Amendment rights of black and Hispanic young men) more important than her simply being a woman (or gay).

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:13:09 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  That is definitely a difficult case. (0+ / 0-)

                      From what I understand it's not as cut in dry as that, but it's still difficult for me. Luckily I don't live in NYC. So I don't have to decide and for the most part it never plays out like that.

                      •  I don't find it a difficult case (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Stephen Wolf, ChadmanFL

                        I care more about how much a politician helps or hurts people than whether the politician is a man or woman, black or white, gay or straight, Jewish, Christian, Muslim, Hindu, atheist, and to me, that is (or should be) the American way. If I felt differently, I'd support all the black candidates against Congressman Cohen in Tennessee, as both whites and Jews are overrepresented in the House, but his constituents, in their wisdom, feel that he represents them better than any of the people who've run against him.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:27:08 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  That was uncalled for (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf

              Extremely uncalled for, and nothing ndrwmls10 said deserved that level of personal attack.  Why can't people just disagree calmly on this site?

      •  To be fair (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        So many Democrats in states controlled by the GOP do this it's hard to really hold this against an individual any more.  They even do it in places where Dems have some say in the matter.

        Its politics; politicians are always looking out for themselves before party/constituents/policy/etc.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:33:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  and there's no reason we can't support (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca, ChadmanFL, gabjoh

          those who are willing to sacrifice for the greater good for the Party over those who are willing to sacrifice the good of the Party for themselves.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:37:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Rep. Pete Visclosky (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      of Indiana belongs on that list if anyone does.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:10:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Surprised Rob Bishop isn't on the list (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      He's really generic. The only thing interesting about him is the names for his kids: Shule, Jarom, Zenock, Maren, Jashon. Those are Book of Mormon names, but even for Mormons, that's weird. Otherwise Rob Bishop is utterly bland.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:52:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  interesting list (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      some of those folks truly are obscure even among those of us with this vexing hobby.

      However, to a contingent of us on DKE/SSP, Adrian Smith (R-NE-03) is a vivid presence, not obscure, because he's the sumbitch who defeated Democrat Scott Kleeb in 2006.  

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:13:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Everyone needs to see this frontline report frm CO (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades
    •  Could that have been any longer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Seriously at the end of the day, both are going to survive the recall.  

      But contrary to numerous assumpitons, losing recalls is not good news for the NRA and winning these recalls will not embolden Dems to go back and re-visit gun control.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:20:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am looking at the Legislative Districts by (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        petral, MichaelNY

        Presidential results spreadsheet that DKE has here, and it says Obama won Morse's district with 59% and Giron's with 58% in 2012.....how are these seats considered a tossup? That's a pretty decisive win for 2012...unless turnout will be the issue in this election.

        I also noticed Senate districts that Democrats controlled with much smaller victory margins for Obama -- why didn't the NRA look to recall those Senators instead?

        •  Turnout is the issue (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          petral, MichaelNY

          Morse's district had a big drop off in 2010.  Plus, NRA types may be outnumbered but they tend to be far more passionate and likely to show up.  

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

          by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:47:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  If they are tossups (5+ / 0-)

          Its due to concerns about turnout.  Even a modestly good effort by Dems and both win.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:51:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  These are safe Dem seats (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          As are almost all of our seats in Colorado (term limits prevent Jim Matheson types from getting entrenched and holding down red turf).  I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the recalls go down in flames, 65-35 margins.  People forget Republicans forced recalls against three Democratic Senators in Wisconsin as well, losing each one in a landslide.  The mere act of forcing a recall doesn't mean that it is competitive.

          •  Even in 2010 we still did very well here (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

            in all of our statewide elections. In fact it seems that not a single statewide Republican candidate won either district except maybe Attorney General Suthers in the 11th, but he was winning by 13! statewide.

            I bet we clear 60% in both districts; Giron's is also one where statewide and local D's tend to outperform the president.

          •  Technically there were 7 recalls (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            Democrats actually won three of these.

            1. Jessica King over Randy Hopper after his repeat DWIs
            2. John Lehman in a rematch over Van Waagaurd in a swingy district.
            3. Jennifer Schilling crushed two term incumbent and arch-conservative Dan Kapanke, who had somehow managed to hold onto a solidly Democratic district.

            Several of the other recalls were actually kept legitimately close, particularly against Alberta Darling.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:54:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I'd Like To Read It.... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      petral, bythesea, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      But I only get a half hour for lunch...

      :)

      I actually did read it, and I am...what's the phrase?....cautiously optimistic as a result.

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 11:27:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Barbara Buono's Scandal (11+ / 0-)

    By scandal, I mean Kerry Washington's "Scandal." Apparently, the actress will be campaigning for Buono and Silva in Montclair this Sunday.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:21:33 AM PDT

  •  Scott Brown returning to Iowa November 12 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    link.

  •  Australian Federal Election tomorrow! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The final couple of polls (by Newspoll and Nielsen) have put the Coalition on an election-dominating lead of 54-46 over Labor. It is predicted that tomorrow could be a landslide, with Labor losing up to 32 seats across Australia. As expected, Rudd has failed miserably with the task of reviving his party, and there is even a slight possibility that he may actually lose his own seat tomorrow! If so, a better end could not come to such a spineless opportunist.

  •  MA-Leg (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JohnnyBoston, KingofSpades

    Dan Donahue announced on BMG today for the 16th Worcester (D-OPEN). He was a staffer for Tim Murray and he has a laundry list of endorsements. He's using very moderate, centrist rhetoric for a 69.8 Obama 62.8 Warren 57.9 Markey district. Imo we could use more of a fighter from a district like this. Here are his words:

    I am a firm believer that we must stop pitting businesses against residents. We need to focus on growing the size of the economic pie, not arguing over who gets what piece. That means ensuring that new businesses can be created and existing ones can grow, so that all property owners – residential and commercial alike – pay less in taxes.

    18, polisci major, voting in MA-01. Democrats must stand up and become the party for all working people.

    by wmass progressive on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:43:11 AM PDT

  •  NC-Gov: Cooper "might" run (9+ / 0-)

    He is "concerned" about the direction of the state.  Of course it's far to early for candidates to be making major plans about a race that's three years out, but it's good to have confirmation from Cooper that he is interested in running.

    Meanwhile, Pat McCrory has insulted the town of High Point, saying they hate North Carolina and are too cheap to hire real Americans, or something like that.  Apparently they took it pretty personally.

  •  PA-HD-78 (3+ / 0-)

    Paging Longtorso: Longtime St. Rep. Dick Hess (R) died today.  25 PS 2778:

    Whenever a vacancy shall occur in either house of the General Assembly whether or not it then be in session, the presiding officer of such house shall, within ten (10) days after the happening of the vacancy, issue a writ of election to the proper county board or boards of election and to the Secretary of the Commonwealth, for a special election to fill said vacancy, which election shall be held at the next ensuing primary, municipal or general election scheduled at least sixty (60) days after the issuance of the writ or such other earlier date which is at least sixty (60) days following the issuance of the writ as the presiding officer may deem appropriate: Provided, however, That should the Governor after the issuance of the said writ of election advise the presiding officer that the General Assembly will be called into extraordinary session prior to the date set for such special election, the presiding officer may countermand the writ theretofore issued and shall issue a new writ of election, fixing therein such earlier date therefor as is deemed expedient, but which shall not be less than sixty (60) days after the issuance of said writ: Provided further, That if the vacancy shall occur less than seven (7) months prior to the expiration of the term, a special election shall be held only if, in the opinion of the presiding officer, the election is in the public interest.
    And E-Day is exactly 60 days from today, so we're looking at an off-cycle special I guess.  

    (Safe R district.)

  •  Oklahoma, not to disparage Henry (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, ArkDem14

    but we won 8 of 9 statewide offices in 2006 over Republicans, so he's certainly not the last Democrat to win election there in a way that Dave Freudenthal is in Wyoming.

  •  I expanded upon my comment yesterday (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, Tayya, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    and made a short diary out of what the reapportionment scenario in yesterday's Live Digest would have resulted in with North Carolina gaining a 14th district at Minnesota's expense:
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    The short, Dems come out ahead, but the states still go 9D-12R anyway.

  •  I guess something like this was bound to happen. (8+ / 0-)
    The St. Patrick’s Day breakfast in South Boston has long been known as a no-holds-barred political slugfest. And though the event is six months away, the slugfest has already begun.
    For generations, the breakfast — which is essentially a political roast — has been hosted by the sitting senator in the First Suffolk Senate district. And since the 1940s, that office has been held by an Irish-American man from South Boston — from John Powers to Joe Moakley to Billy Bulger to Stephen Lynch to Jack Hart.
    But in May, Linda Dorcena-Forry, a Haitian-American woman from Dorchester, won that Senate seat after narrowly defeating Nick Collins, a young state representative from South Boston, in the Democratic primary.
    Bill Linehan, a councilor from South Boston who hosted the breakfast this March after Jack Hart abruptly resigned the “Southie seat” to take a position at a private law firm, is vowing to retain hosting duties.

    “It’s never been stated anywhere that it has to be the state senator,” Linehan said. “It’s a cultural thing. There has never been anyone who hosted it who does not live in South Boston, but there have been people who have hosted it who were not the state senator.”

    US Representative Stephen Lynch, who succeeded Bulger as state senator and breakfast host in 1997, also supported the idea that Dorcena-Forry should host.

    “I believe the sitting state Senator has always served as host,” Lynch said in a statement. “As our new Senator, Linda should be the host, and I am happy to lend her my expertise and any assistance I can provide.”

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/...
  •  OPEN THREAD - Firearms Law and Policy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    We are following the CO recall election very closely. It may serve as the first significant test of whether the NRA's grip is slipping. Please drop by and say hello.

    OPEN THREAD w Poll – “Weapons in Case of Confrontation”

    The Daily Kos Firearms Law and Policy group was founded last month by LilithGardener, OregonOak, Glen the Plumber, and Joy of Fishes. Some of us have been versed in firearms law for many years while others have never owned or handled a gun. We published a Glossary of Resources to make it easier for everyone to find answers to their questions and support their opinions with primary sources of firearms law and policy research. If you find gun jargon confusing you are not alone. This Glossary of Gun Terminology from Handgun Law may help you find the right words.

    Firearms Law and Policy Digest September 6, 2013 by Joy of Fishes will publish today at 6PM MCT. To add our diaries in your stream, go to our group blog Firearms Law and Policy and click on the little heart. To join us send us a Kosmail.

    "They did not succeed in taking away our voice" - Angelique Kidjo - Opening the Lightning In a Bottle concert at Radio City Music Hall in New York City - 2003

    by LilithGardener on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:39:04 PM PDT

  •  Multnomah County Chair Jeff Cogen will resign (0+ / 0-)

    effective the 16th.

    The article says that State Rep. Jules Bailey has stated his interest and that county commissioner Deb Kafoury is rumored to be considering a run, and the primary will take place in May.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:11:02 PM PDT

  •  Ron Brownstein analyzes the white vote (8+ / 0-)

    link

    In 2012, Obama won a smaller share of white Catholics than any Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1980; lost groups ranging from white seniors to white women to white married and blue-collar men by the widest margin of any Democrat since Ronald Reagan routed Walter Mondale in 1984; and even lost among Democratic-leaning college-educated women by the widest margin since Michael Dukakis in 1988, according to the latest National Journal analysis of the trends that shape the allegiances of American voters.

    And yet, behind rousing support from minorities everywhere, and often much more competitive showings among whites in both Democratic-leaning and battleground states, Obama not only won reelection but won fairly comfortably.

    Few decisions may carry greater consequences for the Republican Party in 2016 than how it interprets these facts. The key question facing the GOP is whether Obama's 2012 performance represents a structural Democratic decline among whites that could deepen even further in the years ahead—or a floor from which the next Democratic nominee is likely to improve.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:47:05 PM PDT

    •  I'm glad they at least mention the fact (10+ / 0-)

      that Obama did much better among white voters in swing and blue states.  For all the hyperventilation about "the white vote", it's such a varied thing.  Obama got 67% of the white vote in Vermont.  He got 9% in Mississippi.  There really is no "white vote" any more than there is a "Catholic vote" or "married vote".  They are simply too large and varied to be useful indications of sub-groups.

      •  There are more deep red states than there are blue (5+ / 0-)

        Only 4 greater than D+10 compared to 13 greater than R+10. The performance down south and out west drags everything down. But you could argue votes for president are more efficiently dispersed in the electoral college for the same reason and to the disadvantage of Republicans. You have the exact opposite with House districts by PVI.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:30:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm glad he ignores "two-party vote share" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Brownstein uses raw vote share to look at both parties' performances with white voters.  That is the correct way to do it.  Some election commentators I read and follow on Twitter wrongly use two-party vote share, which they fail to recognize is just a subsample and by definition not a valid stand-in for the total vote like they pretend it is.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:55:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hmmm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think the answer to the question in the last paragraph is fairly obvious, though, I suppose this is the kind of stuff you have to propose when you're the media.

      •  I think the answer to the last question (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...is "neither."  We've performed in a very narrow range with whites over several decades now, as Brownstein himself writes there it's been in the 39-43 range post-Reagan, and even in Reagan's wins we were at 36 and 35, respectively, meaning not much worse than Obama last year in his comfortable win.

        The only time the bottom dropped out for us was when McGovern in '72 got just 31% of the white vote in exit polling.  And the confluence of circumstances and events that caused that are not recurring or anything that can be manufactured.

        All this means that we can't budge much up or down, and any movement from one election to the next is likely margin-of-error movement across exit polls.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:53:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  if I were a Republican (0+ / 0-)

      I'd reason that white people are still the vast majority of the electorate, and Romney only lost because he couldn't drum up enough support among white voters. hence, the key to winning is to get more white votes, and the way to do that is to move further to the right.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 04:52:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  More hyperventilation (6+ / 0-)

    over Syria, titled "The Biggest Mistake of Obama's Presidency", from Nathan Gonzalez.

    President Barack Obama could have saved himself a lot of headaches, and potentially his presidential legacy, if he had done one thing: cultivated a relationship with Congress...
    I don't even understand how someone can cram so much fail into so little space.  The rest of the article is gold too, with scary quotes from "Democratic operatives" and "strategists" about how this is all Obama's fault.  Finally, the author claims Democrats might still run the House if only the healthcare and cap-and-trade had been "handled differently".
    •  If handled differently means fixed the economy (7+ / 0-)

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:21:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nathan's a good guy but that is ALL wrong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        There are many layers of fail in that column.

        If there's a common thread in his fails there, it's a wrongly hugely inflated notion of Presidential power.  In a supermassive (in population and geography) democracy with sharp separations of governmental power (federal vs. state, and three rival centers of power in the federal government with the House, Senate, and SCOTUS), no President is ever as powerful or strong as too many people want to believe.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:50:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I just saw some photos of Bill de Blasio (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    And I didn't realize how tall he is. Dude is a giant. I wonder if that old cliche about the tallest presidential candidate applies to high-profile down-ballot races like NYC mayor?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:35:50 PM PDT

  •  Headline of the day (11+ / 0-)

    From Dave Weigel: "Even the Unskewed Polls Guy Thinks Ken Cuccinelli Might Be Losing in Virginia".

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:48:51 PM PDT

  •  NJ-Gov: I was doing polling work again today (9+ / 0-)

    one female voter I called is a Republican voting Republican for state legislature, but FOR Barbara Buono.  Quite a find.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:03:14 PM PDT

  •  MI-Sen: Dykstra (R) Declines to Run (8+ / 0-)

    Looks like the GOP is struck with Terri Lynn Land:

    — BREAKING: Kurt Dykstra will not run for U.S. Senate. In a release put out this morning, Dykstra said after considering a bid to replace U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, he decided against it because the "cost and impact on the party could diminish our chance to achieve the goal: winning the U.S. Senate."

    Last month, Dykstra said he was still considering running for Senate after U.S. Rep Dave Camp said he was not going to seek the seat.

    I was actually kind of worried about Dykstra.  While he is "Some Dude" he's a Some Dude I feel that could actually become a formidable candidate.  I guess all those photo-ops with the prez when he came to Holland, though, couldn't have helped. lol

    BTW, there is also a trash poll in that article from horrible pollster Mitchell research that has Land leading Peters 39/36 and with an even more laughable match-up showing the completely unknown Dykstra leading Peters 37/36.  I almost didn't even mention it given how ridiculous it is, but I thought you guys show know. lol  I don't know why Michigan has shut sh%tty local pollsters.  Even the most professional of the locals, EPIC, isn't all that great.

  •  VA-GOV question: Are there any potential 2017 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Democratic candidates for governor? I know it's kind of early to start thinking about that, but since McAuliffe gets only one term and got no opposition this time around in the primary anyway, I'm just curious to know if there could be any good contenders for the next time around, assuming Virgina continues its left-ward march.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:33:41 PM PDT

    •  Depends on the A.G. race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, jj32

      Whoever wins the A.G. race is a lock to be the frontrunner for his party's Gov nod in '17.  I would put a thumb on the scale for Herring right now based on downballot drag from Cuccinelli.  Herring will be the consensus favorite in '17 and could very well clear the field, given the weak state legislature presence we have.  I don't know of any rising stars in county or city offices, either, who could make the jump to Gov.

      If Herring loses this fall, then Obenshain is the GOP frontrunner but not necessarily unchallenged.  The GOP has more downballot than we do in the state legislature and in Congress, so anyone ambitious to make a move could consider a serious challenge.  On our side, the picture is murkier, again because the right-wing shift in the 90s combined with gerrymandering and the natural self-packing of our voters has left us with a limited bench.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:45:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ralph Northam? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, jj32

        He is certain to be elected LG, which means that if Herring loses, he's likely the D candidate in 2017 (although the base will challenge him).

        Alternatively, 2017 might be the return of Mark Warner.

        •  Usually in VA (0+ / 0-)

          the LG or AG have first dibs on the gubernatorial nomination; if both are of the same party then one or the other tends to step aside.  Most often the AG has the stronger chance to be elected governor as there's more of a chance to make an impact in that office; for the R's, Bill Bolling stood down twice, to his ultimate regret (and likely that of many others in the party.)

          So if Herring wins this year I think he'll be seen as Dem frontrunner, provided that he wants to.  If Northam and Obenshain win, then that would appear at first to be the likeliest pairing.  However, if that's the case and what DCCyclone has said is true, then Northam should seriously step up his campaign skills over the next four years.  Northam's campaign appears to be coasting without much visibility, which he can probably get away with this time simply by not being EW Jackson, but against Obenshain or someone else better qualified or less inflammatory that won't work.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:41:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  No (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Northam is a terrible candidate, another Creigh Deeds.  He is the luckiest s.o.b. imaginable, winning the primary despite a bad campaign and now having the office handed to him thanks to the state GOP having picked a clown candidate.

          He won't be so lucky in a Governor's race, and people here know that.

          There will be contested primary if Herring isn't the sitting A.G. entering 2017, or if Mark Warner doesn't decide to run for another term as Governor which I now doubt he'll ever do but it's still possible.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 06:48:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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